Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Sucumbio]

Calling it: Mario returns in it as a veteran.

Yeah he's the og I mean just watch the how to play Bowser stood no chance

 

[DarthEnderX]

Also, out of all three Links, I personally find that Toon Link and Young Link have the best controls and playstyle. If you even consider forcing me to use only Rune Bombs, I will make it my personal mission to advocate the removal of Wolf, another semi-clone added for the sake of cloning.

TL and YL shouldn't even HAVE bombs, because all 3 Links should use completely different items.

You take that back! We already have barely any Star Fox these days and he's my favorite! Ignore this Nintendo Wolf must come back!

They should replace his gun with the Machine Gun though. All 3 StarFox characters should have different weapons. Falco should get the Sniper Rifle.

I agree Smash 4 didn't have the greatest newcomers.

/looks at Mega Man, Little Mac, Ryu and Cloud

 

[CapitaineCrash]

At release I kind of agreed that Smash 4 newcomers were a bit weak, but retrospectively looking back at them I think they're really solid pick, and I'd argue they're as good as Brawl newcomers. Both Villager and Wii fit have awesome moveset and represent some of the best selling Nintendo games ever, Xenoblade was also an amazing pick for a new franchise and if Shulk wasn't add in Smash 4, people wouldn't have claimed that much for Pyra/Mythra in Ult and it might have made Xenoblade missed the boat entirely, and it's a super important franchise for Nintendo today. Duck hunt is easily the coolest retro pick they ever done imo, because first it's actually a very popular game (much more popular than Ice climbers and Kid icarus that was added before him), and he have an awesome moveset too. Bowser Jr. was an awesome surprise and Robin and Lucina were cool Fire emblem additions. And that's not even getting into third parties with Mega man and Cloud being hilghly requested, and Ryu and Pac-Man are some of the most iconic video game characters you could get.

 

[Sucumbio]

I honestly didn't care about the roster at all once Snake was cut. Ultimate changed that for me in a huge way and DLC especially.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Let's play a small game: Masahiro Sakurai let You decide eight characters for an hypothetical new Fighter's Pass.
The twist is that all of the new faces doesn't originate from the video games, finally breaking the stigma of Smash only being for gaming.
One per Company. Let the challenge begin!!!

I'm utterly against 4P characters in Smash, but I'll play along.

First up we need:
1. Scrooge McDuck [DuckTales]
2. Batman [Batman: The Video Game]
3. Michelangelo [Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Turtles in Time]
Because reasons.

Then fill it out with:
4. Spider-Man [Marvel's Spider-Man]
5. Goku [Dragon Ball FighterZ]
6. Godzilla [Godzilla: Destroy All Monsters Melee]
7. James Bond [GoldenEye 007]
8. Scott Pilgrim [Scott Pilgrim vs. the World: The Game]

Granted theres a lot of disney here but vader and spidey existed long before disney bought marvel and lucas film!

If they hadn't said 1 per company I would 100% have replaced Godzilla with a Star Wars.

 

[Louie G.]

They should replace his gun with the Machine Gun though. All 3 StarFox characters should have different weapons. Falco should get the Sniper Rifle.

I'm not inherently opposed to this, although I think it's worth celebrating how distinct they've managed to make each of the Star Fox crew's blasters without changing the move too much. They're all fundamentally unique moves that drastically switch up the way each of them play, but just look similar. I particularly like the design of Wolf's blaster, how it has a hitbox on the claw when it's pulled out.

I have to wonder how much switching these up would change how these characters work. Giving Wolf a machine gun might give it more of a rapid fire quality akin to Fox, and Falco being a sniper would be a complete game changer. I think I prefer the way it is right now but it's interesting to think about.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Giving Wolf a machine gun might give it more of a rapid fire quality akin to Fox,

Which would...probably make him even more similar to Fox. Something people who hate clones SHOULDN'T want.

 

[Louie G.]

Which would...probably make him even more similar to Fox. Something people who hate clones SHOULDN'T want.

Yeah, which is why I'd prefer Wolf's moveset to stay the same. He's already plenty different as is and I don't mind moveset parallels if they highlight the ways the characters contrast one another - Wolf's specials give him that more brutal edge.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Yeah, which is why I'd prefer Wolf's moveset to stay the same. He's already plenty different as is and I don't mind moveset parallels if they highlight the ways the characters contrast one another - Wolf's specials give him that more brutal edge.

He has little to no reused animations from Fox anyway, which is part of how I can't exactly tell where all his various moves come from if he's supposed to be a mix of various preexisting fighters' moves. At least it makes sense why according to Sakurai he took 70% of the work a fully unique fighter takes if he has plenty of unique animations.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I honestly don't mind seeing more first-party characters in the roster. I think Isaac and Felix are long overdue. Personally, I think Isaac should have been in Brawl, back when Golden Sun was still more recent.

Takamaru would make a good character too. I think by this point, I don't think he'd be much of a risk to be added to roster now that he has a little more exposure outside of Japan.

Then maybe the protagonist(s) from Astral Chain and Muddy from Mole Mania. Heck, I don't mind seeing Zael from The Last Story.

As much as people are hyped about third-party characters in the roster, I kind of don't want it to get too focused on that. I want to see more tributes to Nintendo. Maybe having both Famicom Medleys and even a Super Famicom Medley.

 

[Louie G.]

As much as people are hyped about third-party characters in the roster, I kind of don't want it to get too focused on that. I want to see more tributes to Nintendo. Maybe having both Famicom Medleys and even a Super Famicom Medley.

I feel like whatever new third party universes are introduced in base game next time around will have some substantial Nintendo history. I know this is conveniently ignoring Snake (granted, he existed before Smash DLC was a thing), but other than him most of the third parties on the base roster tend to be pretty close knit. are all pretty much no brainers. Compared to like, someone like Joker or Sephiroth further down the line who just feels more like "DLC" where these boundaries are pushed further. I talk about Master Chief and whoever but I'm always talking about them in the context of next game's inevitable Fighter Pass.

Maybe this is arbitrary, but I think it makes sense. Keep the third parties modest on base and then blow the lid off later with big budget DLC. Hayabusa, Arle, Monster Hunter or Bomberman are some choices that I think feel more in line with this approach.

 

[Kirbeh]

He has little to no reused animations from Fox anyway, which is part of how I can't exactly tell where all his various moves come from if he's supposed to be a mix of various preexisting fighters' moves. At least it makes sense why according to Sakurai he took 70% of the work a fully unique fighter takes if he has plenty of unique animations.

I haven't seen Brawl Wolf in motion in ages, especially with most of my time with Brawl being via PM, but I do think it's plausible that a lot of his moves were modified animations from other characters. Down Air likely coming from Diddy, Down Smash being Links but swordless and making it into claw swipes, etc. That said I also don't remember if that was Sakurai's exact quote.

As for reworking the Starfox cast, I honestly kind of like where the spacies are right now. If anything I'd actually change Falco a little more over Fox or Wolf. I think it'd be kind of cool if he fought with two blasters like he does in the SSE cutscenes.

If we ever got another member of Wolf's team, l'd give the sniper to Leon. Pigma could get the machine gun, functioning like an automatic version of Fox's but with shorter range.

And yeah it's another variation, but I want to see a Reflector that gets sent out like Falco's, but stays on the field like Aegis Reflector from Street Fighter. It could even function as a small wall rather than just being a shield/reflector. That way you knock opponents into it for combos or maybe wall jump off of it for off stage shenanigans and recovery mix ups.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

/looks at Mega Man, Little Mac, Ryu and Cloud

I think he meant first party ones.

Honestly Megaman and Cloud were about as hype as you could get until Sora showed up lol

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I feel like whatever new third party universes are introduced in base game next time around will have some substantial Nintendo history. I know this is conveniently ignoring Snake (granted, he existed before Smash DLC was a thing), but other than him most of the third parties on the base roster tend to be pretty close knit. are all pretty much no brainers. Compared to like, someone like Joker or Sephiroth further down the line who just feels more like "DLC" where these boundaries are pushed further. I talk about Master Chief and whoever but I'm always talking about them in the context of next game's inevitable Fighter Pass.

Maybe this is arbitrary, but I think it makes sense. Keep the third parties modest on base and then blow the lid off later with big budget DLC. Hayabusa, Arle, Monster Hunter or Bomberman are some choices that I think feel more in line with this approach.

If they could come up with a moveset for Bomberman then i could totally see him being base.

 

[Guynamednelson]

That said I also don't remember if that was Sakurai's exact quote.

Sakurai answers some (old) questions– about Brawl!

These questions were part of a two-part article that was published shortly after Brawl’s release, in the magazine Nintendo Dream, featuring a bunch of reader questions, which Sakurai answered…

sourcegaming.info

He talks about modeling Wolf rather than programming or animating him.
"For Krystal, we didn’t have any of the technical modeling knowledge that we had cultivated with Fox and Falco, so it was like making a brand-new character from scratch. And because of the limited amount of time we had, creating Krystal wasn’t realistically possible. On that point, with Wolf we already have some knowledge of how to model his character, and would require about 70% of the effort required to create a whole new character."
The thing about Wolf being a mix of various characters' moves comes from the wiki saying "This explains why he uses so many animations from other characters", but they don't specify what comes from where.

 

[Kirbeh]

Sakurai answers some (old) questions– about Brawl!

These questions were part of a two-part article that was published shortly after Brawl’s release, in the magazine Nintendo Dream, featuring a bunch of reader questions, which Sakurai answered…

sourcegaming.info

He talks about modeling Wolf rather than programming or animating him.
"For Krystal, we didn’t have any of the technical modeling knowledge that we had cultivated with Fox and Falco, so it was like making a brand-new character from scratch. And because of the limited amount of time we had, creating Krystal wasn’t realistically possible. On that point, with Wolf we already have some knowledge of how to model his character, and would require about 70% of the effort required to create a whole new character."
The thing about Wolf being a mix of various characters' moves comes from the wiki saying "This explains why he uses so many animations from other characters", but they don't specify what comes from where.

I'd honestly like know how accurate this translation is because that's honestly kind of a strange comment. I'm having a hard time figuring out what in particular would make Krystal more difficult to model over other characters.

I guess it could be referring towards a case where they literally took Fox's base model and worked from there as the starting point? So more a case of saving on time over actual difficulty.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Krystal is too sexy to Smash

 

[AlRex]

I prefer adding new series in terms of first parties, but most of those series are obscure, so I dunno. Maybe ExciteBike and Rhythm Heaven are decently known, and Nintendogs’ option outside of realistic dogs, nobody would really know. Does Captain N count? Probably not. Never been much excited by the likes of Waluigi, Bandana Dee, and Dixie Kong, but that’s just me. Zelda could use one that isn’t Link, Zelda, or Ganon again, but nobody rallies behind just one.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I'd honestly like know how accurate this translation is because that's honestly kind of a strange comment. I'm having a hard time figuring out what in particular would make Krystal more difficult to model over other characters.

I guess it could be referring towards a case where they literally took Fox's base model and worked from there as the starting point? So more a case of saving on time over actual difficulty.

He did say time constraints helped make Wolf more feasible over Krystal, yeah. But the only cases where Fox and Wolf's models are similar enough to have similar UV maps are their Blasters and Landmasters, so I dunno how much easier Wolf was in the modeling department.

 

[Sucumbio]

Krystal is too sexy to Smash

" No! "

 

[Louie G.]

"For Krystal, we didn’t have any of the technical modeling knowledge that we had cultivated with Fox and Falco, so it was like making a brand-new character from scratch. And because of the limited amount of time we had, creating Krystal wasn’t realistically possible. On that point, with Wolf we already have some knowledge of how to model his character, and would require about 70% of the effort required to create a whole new character."

I find Krystal's history really interesting, perhaps one of the characters with the most devastating loss of clout over the years. It's nice that she got the AT nod in Ultimate, most likely the culmination of her high Brawl-era popularity.

But that's kind of a step down compared to being in this position where she gets singled out in an interview like this, and Sakurai seems to imply she was under some heavy consideration. Had Star Fox continued with the same energy it had between Melee and Brawl, and if Krystal wasn't seemingly abandoned by the series, maybe it would have been more practical to imagine her being added in one of the following games. But unfortunately she stands out to me as a character who especially just missed her perfect moment and was never able to recover.

 

[dream1ng]

I don't understand what 'what we have now is comparable to what we had before' means.

Sorry, I was referencing an earlier post: I meant "saying the (first-party) candidates we have now are overall on par with those of past games". Should've been more clear.

I honestly don't mind seeing more first-party characters in the roster. I think Isaac and Felix are long overdue. Personally, I think Isaac should have been in Brawl, back when Golden Sun was still more recent.

Takamaru would make a good character too. I think by this point, I don't think he'd be much of a risk to be added to roster now that he has a little more exposure outside of Japan.

Then maybe the protagonist(s) from Astral Chain and Muddy from Mole Mania. Heck, I don't mind seeing Zael from The Last Story.

As much as people are hyped about third-party characters in the roster, I kind of don't want it to get too focused on that. I want to see more tributes to Nintendo. Maybe having both Famicom Medleys and even a Super Famicom Medley.

Firstly, I would be happy to see any of these characters. Even Muddy Mole. So this isn't coming from a place of some bias against them. However,

1) Brawl was a good time to add GS, but there were only so many spots to go around. In terms of the unique newcomers we got, I do understand why they got in over Isaac. Maybe with one or two more, it'd be him. And I think the same could've been said for Ultimate, especially given how limited base was, and how they were focusing on the ballot, in which Isaac seemingly did well.

2) Takamaru would be fun and different from what we have - which is a bit surprising that we don't really have a traditional Japanese character. Having said that, Sakurai has said why he's been excluded, and a game and a VC release have since happened and it's not been enough. So barring a new game, I don't see him getting in. I hope one day some dev can convince Nintendo to give them a crack at the IP.

3) I imagine Astral Chain will get in. The competition for first-parties is pretty light right now, and it's new and successful enough. And probably will continue. Good luck on the other two.

4) Once we start actually getting characters, and a lot of them are first-parties because it's base, people will refocus on them. The fanbase was just left with like three years of third-parties and promo picks, so we're largely stuck in that mode.

I feel like whatever new third party universes are introduced in base game next time around will have some substantial Nintendo history. I know this is conveniently ignoring Snake (granted, he existed before Smash DLC was a thing), but other than him most of the third parties on the base roster tend to be pretty close knit. are all pretty much no brainers. Compared to like, someone like Joker or Sephiroth further down the line who just feels more like "DLC" where these boundaries are pushed further. I talk about Master Chief and whoever but I'm always talking about them in the context of next game's inevitable Fighter Pass.

Maybe this is arbitrary, but I think it makes sense. Keep the third parties modest on base and then blow the lid off later with big budget DLC. Hayabusa, Arle, Monster Hunter or Bomberman are some choices that I think feel more in line with this approach.

Tbh I think being Nintendo-related is incidental in that situation. The majority of characters with a close Nintendo association are those we've received via demand (), because it's only recently that the most popular requests no longer reflected the fanbase being Nintendo-oriented. Like, post-Ultimate is the first time that's happened.

And because base is a package deal that doesn't need to sell itself based on a sole character, I think you can put the maybe slightly smaller but more fanbase-oriented picks on it, while saving most of the biggest third-party lures for DLC. Of course, this is only using Ultimate as precedent, given Brawl and 4's base weren't made with later DLC in mind.

So I agree with Hayabusa, Arle and Bomberman, because they're not the biggest characters, but the fanbase likes them (at least in one region). MH could be in base, but would also be effective as DLC; it's a big series with a wide audience. It just happens to have a strong Nintendo association. A little like Dragon Quest, though obv it's not a perfect comparison.

Getting characters like Kiryu, RE, 2B, Dark Souls, basically anyone from Microsoft, now those seem like DLC picks.

I prefer adding new series in terms of first parties, but most of those series are obscure, so I dunno. Maybe ExciteBike and Rhythm Heaven are decently known, and Nintendogs’ option outside of realistic dogs, nobody would really know. Does Captain N count? Probably not. Never been much excited by the likes of Waluigi, Bandana Dee, and Dixie Kong, but that’s just me. Zelda could use one that isn’t Link, Zelda, or Ganon again, but nobody rallies behind just one.

Unfortunately Smash doesn't seem like it cares about new series unless they're current. Or can be the surprise pick.

So Ring Fit and Astral Chain will probably show up. Maybe if the stars align Isaac could get in on sheer demand w/ them looking for a first-party fanbase pick. And then the surprise pick is always a wild card. There used to be a "retro spot", but it's been a few games without that now, so I'm not expecting some token retro this time.

In theory Advance Wars and Famicom Detective Club are current, but... I'm not sure a remake will cut it. If they got proper sequels then they'd have a very good chance. Though idk how well either actually did. And at this point, Advance Wars may be more trouble than it's worth, to them. But I hope not.

Other than that... not sure I'd hold my breath.

I'd honestly like know how accurate this translation is because that's honestly kind of a strange comment. I'm having a hard time figuring out what in particular would make Krystal more difficult to model over other characters.

I guess it could be referring towards a case where they literally took Fox's base model and worked from there as the starting point? So more a case of saving on time over actual difficulty.

Yeah, it's referring to just how it's more difficult and time consuming to make a completely new character than one who uses another character as a foundation. She already has a different body type, they really couldn't reuse much if she was going to be a staff-wielder too.

I find Krystal's history really interesting, perhaps one of the characters with the most devastating loss of clout over the years. It's nice that she got the AT nod in Ultimate, most likely the culmination of her high Brawl-era popularity.

But that's kind of a step down compared to being in this position where she gets singled out in an interview like this, and Sakurai seems to imply she was under some heavy consideration. Had Star Fox continued with the same energy it had between Melee and Brawl, and if Krystal wasn't seemingly abandoned by the series, maybe it would have been more practical to imagine her being added in one of the following games. But unfortunately she stands out to me as a character who especially just missed her perfect moment and was never able to recover.

Kind of understandable, given how the series has gone. It's a pretty rare character that can have their popularity sustain despite really not getting anything like K. Rool, Isaac or Geno. Most do subside eventually.

And tbf, her popularity was still... ok... for a character in her position. It's probably what made her an AT, based on the ballot. Not that she'd be topping the charts otherwise, but getting deconfirmed literally right at the beginning of Ultimate was pretty bad for her residual support. Really, only Waluigi escaped.

Having said that, she is an inherently liked character, so if she is featured whenever Star Fox does return, so too will her popularity. And with where we're at among the first-parties, she'll be right in the top tier.

Krystal is too sexy to Smash

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Krystal is in a pretty unfortinate circumstance because the franchise abandoned her after a while, and then the franchise died.

She survives entirely by fanart, like the Darkstalkers cast.

 

[dream1ng]

Krystal is in a pretty unfortinate circumstance because the franchise abandoned her after a while, and then the franchise died.

She survives entirely by fanart, like the Darkstalkers cast.

Tbf the two recent (relative to the others) Star Fox games have been a 64 remake and a second re-imagining of the original, with EAD/EPD (and more specifically, Miyamoto) heavily involved in both. And we're excluding Star Fox 2 for obvious reasons.

Make an actual new game with a different dev (though there's seemingly a gradual increase in EPD folding in "outside" characters - though they should just give Star Fox to a dif dev anyway, they don't seem to know what to do with the IP), and I think chances are good Krystal is there.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

She also wasnt in Battle for atlas

 

[UserKev]

Takamaru is slowly growling on me. Why is he intriguing? Idk. Him or Sukapon are luxury retro picks.

 

[dream1ng]

She also wasnt in Battle for atlas

Honestly I forgot that was a thing. That was also based around Star Fox/Star Fox 64/Star Fox Zero though, look at their designs.

I mean she could've been, it's not like it's canon. But I also wouldn't read into that too much. It was reflecting the only stuff Star Fox had done that decade. An actual new Star Fox game will try to evolve the series, not just reflect it.

Moreover, you would hope that whoever gets handed the IP for a new game would actually be a fan of the IP. Not just one or two games. Or at least they would be attuned to what the fanbase likes. Look at how MercurySteam added Ridley to a remake of a game he wasn't even in.

Takamaru is slowly growling on me. Why is he intriguing? Idk. Him or Sukapon are luxury retro picks.

They were the popular ones before Sakurai shut them down.

 

[SPEN18]

3) I imagine Astral Chain will get in. The competition for first-parties is pretty light right now, and it's new and successful enough. And probably will continue. Good luck on the other two.

But Astral Chain is pretty much in the same spot GS was in for Brawl. New IP from the previous, but not current, console gen that sold about a million copies on its first go (though 1mil sales on GBA was harder to do than on Switch I'd argue). More recent than other series they could choose but still probably pretty poor timing relative to the project plan.
Of course we also had Pikmin 1 in that situation, but Pikmin 2 came much closer to Brawl's project plan than GS's sequel and Pikmin also had the advantage of being a Miyamoto baby that GS and Chain do not. In Smash 4 we got a similarly niche IP in Xenoblade, but that had its NA release in 2012 right around the project plan bringing renewed attention to the game, as well as a developer owned by Nintendo (and even then got characterized by Sakurai as a typically unlikely addition).
Ring Fit had much more noticeable and impactful sales and was internally developed (so Nintendo's people are likelier to care more about it), which makes me think it could have enough to overcome being presumably well before the project plan for Smash 6. Much like Wii Fit before it (though I don't know if Sakurai would have known about Wii Fit U being in development at the time of Smash 4's plan).
So I think Astral Chain's chances are a bit overrated, but this is of course all barring a sequel; that would clearly change the equation quite a bit. But seeing that we have no idea if or when such a sequel could be coming, and seeing that Chain is likely never going to be the top priority for Platinum, for now I don't really view it as all that likely. I could be wrong, though.

--

Regardless, Astral Chain's chance depends on its recency more than basically anything, so it's not really competing for the same slots that series like GS, Rhythm Heaven, Excitebike, etc. would be competing for, unless they end up creating some kind of general "unrepresented IP" slot.

Anyway the TLDR here is there's actually just as much reason to believe we'd get an older unrepped IP either through a fan demand slot, a dedicated retro slot, or a surprise slot, relative to giving a slot to "similarly niche IP that is newer but still had pretty poor timing relative to the plan." I wouldn't count out a Pit- or Mac-like inclusion that is some nebulous combination of popularity, potential/recent revival, and respect or potential favoritism from Sakurai.

 

[Geno Boost]

My pick for next retro rep is Sukapon and Harry from Teleroboxer and Hakkun from sutte Hakkun
Sukapon because joy Mech fight aged so damn well for nes game and adds more fighting game franchise to the roster I feel like he should have been a part of the original 12 due to him being Nintendo’s fighting game character
Harry because there is no virtual boy content in smash yet also giant robot boxer sounds pretty cool to have
Hakkun because he has shape shifting ability and has the ability to suck color from fighters which is a very unique concept

 

[Will]

You take that back! We already have barely any Star Fox these days and he's my favorite! Ignore this Nintendo Wolf must come back!

You will give me Toon Link and his hookshot Z Recovery.

TL and YL shouldn't even HAVE bombs, because all 3 Links should use completely different items.

I agree 100%, they should. IMO, the kit they have now shouldn’t be an excuse to cut them from the roster.

What would you replace their down specials with?

 

[DarthEnderX]

Sorry, I was referencing an earlier post: I meant "saying the (first-party) candidates we have now are overall on par with those of past games". Should've been more clear.

Ah. I see.

Then the answer is no.

What would you replace their down specials with?

Aw hell. I dunno...

Maybe Skull Hammer for TL.

For YL, probably the Goron roll from MM.

 

[smashkirby]

I honestly don't mind seeing more first-party characters in the roster. I think Isaac and Felix are long overdue. Personally, I think Isaac should have been in Brawl, back when Golden Sun was still more recent.

Takamaru would make a good character too. I think by this point, I don't think he'd be much of a risk to be added to roster now that he has a little more exposure outside of Japan.

Then maybe the protagonist(s) from Astral Chain and Muddy from Mole Mania. Heck, I don't mind seeing Zael from The Last Story.

As much as people are hyped about third-party characters in the roster, I kind of don't want it to get too focused on that. I want to see more tributes to Nintendo. Maybe having both Famicom Medleys and even a Super Famicom Medley.

Insert "He's just like me for real!! meme

Seriously though, Takamaru, Akira Howard, Muddy Mole, Isaac, Zael?

I legit wouldn't mind any of those characters either. Heck, give me characters like Aeron from Pandora's Tower, Frey and Freya from Zangeki no Reginleiv, Jonathan Raimi from Geist, Alexandra Roivas from Eternal Darkness, and/or Captain Rainbow while you're at it.

My pick for next retro rep is Sukapon and Harry from Teleroboxer and Hakkun from sutte Hakkun
Sukapon because joy Mech fight aged so damn well for nes game and adds more fighting game franchise to the roster I feel like he should have been a part of the original 12 due to him being Nintendo’s fighting game character
Harry because there is no virtual boy content in smash yet also giant robot boxer sounds pretty cool to have
Hakkun because he has shape shifting ability and has the ability to suck color from fighters which is a very unique concept

A person truly after my own heart. For real, I'd love to see folks like Sukapon, Harry, and Hakkun in Smash!

 

[dream1ng]

But Astral Chain is pretty much in the same spot GS was in for Brawl. New IP from the previous, but not current, console gen that sold about a million copies on its first go (though 1mil sales on GBA was harder to do than on Switch I'd argue). More recent than other series they could choose but still probably pretty poor timing relative to the project plan.
Of course we also had Pikmin 1 in that situation, but Pikmin 2 came much closer to Brawl's project plan than GS's sequel and Pikmin also had the advantage of being a Miyamoto baby that GS and Chain do not. In Smash 4 we got a similarly niche IP in Xenoblade, but that had its NA release in 2012 right around the project plan bringing renewed attention to the game, as well as a developer owned by Nintendo (and even then got characterized by Sakurai as a typically unlikely addition).
Ring Fit had much more noticeable and impactful sales and was internally developed (so Nintendo's people are likelier to care more about it), which makes me think it could have enough to overcome being presumably well before the project plan for Smash 6. Much like Wii Fit before it (though I don't know if Sakurai would have known about Wii Fit U being in development at the time of Smash 4's plan).
So I think Astral Chain's chances are a bit overrated, but this is of course all barring a sequel; that would clearly change the equation quite a bit. But seeing that we have no idea if or when such a sequel could be coming, and seeing that Chain is likely never going to be the top priority for Platinum, for now I don't really view it as all that likely. I could be wrong, though.

--

Regardless, Astral Chain's chance depends on its recency more than basically anything, so it's not really competing for the same slots that series like GS, Rhythm Heaven, Excitebike, etc. would be competing for, unless they end up creating some kind of general "unrepresented IP" slot.

Anyway the TLDR here is there's actually just as much reason to believe we'd get an older unrepped IP either through a fan demand slot, a dedicated retro slot, or a surprise slot, relative to giving a slot to "similarly niche IP that is newer but still had pretty poor timing relative to the plan." I wouldn't count out a Pit- or Mac-like inclusion that is some nebulous combination of popularity, potential/recent revival, and respect or potential favoritism from Sakurai.

I agree Astral Chain's chance depends on recency. Recency is a very common aspect behind inclusion, assuming that character also hits the threshold of success to get included. Many spots can go to fighters like that. There is not just as much reason to believe we'll get an older, unrepped IP as a current successful one. Because there are usually many spots allocated for current, successful first-parties. Btw, Mac fit under here too when included.

Being on the previous system doesn't negate that, because the selection window goes back from the current point to the previous round of selection. So for this it'd be probably be between 2019 and 2024. That is what counts as recent/current, plus one year ahead for promo picks ala Pokemon/FE/Xenoblade.

Since Smash has always begun development prior to the release of the system it's on (64 and 3DS aside), a lot of the selection ends up looking at the previous console. Incineroar was a promotional pick that indirectly promoted the previous console.

So, regarding these old, unrepped IPs:

• If you're Golden Sun, you're going to have to get in through the fan pick spot, of which there are, typically, far fewer - given fan favorites who are also current and successful usually don't get in on the basis of being a fan favorite. Like Inkling. I think this will also happen to Waluigi. And that's like, Isaac's saving grace. But hey, if this spot is taken by characters like Waluigi or BWD, that could box out an unrepped IP entirely.
• It's also possible the fan pick category makes no distinction between first and third-party, such as if they aren't compelled by the first-party offering, they may find the third-party inclusions who fit this category a sufficient nod to the fanbase.
• If you're a retro series, you're going to have to magically hope that category comes back, or hope you could also qualify as a surprise pick. Atm, the "retro spot" hasn't been a thing, so obviously a character who can get in based on something we usually get multiple spots for has better odds.
• If you qualify as a surprise choice, you seemingly have one spot in which you can make it. But Sakurai has also stressed, for the past two surprise picks at least, that still being recognizable is paramount. So if you'd be surprising, but you're also not prolific, then you're probably not qualifying. And if there were any obvious choices here, they also wouldn't qualify. So it's a whole category of longshots, vying for a single spot. Of course the current, successful IP has a better chance than any one applicable surprise candidate.
• If you're Rhythm Heaven, I don't even know where you qualify. If around DHD and PP is the barometer, I don't think RH measures up to being well-known enough for the surprise pick.

So no, I don't agree that an older, unrepped IP has as much shot to get in as Astral Chain. I think Golden Sun has a slim shot of getting in while Astral Chain doesn't, but apart from that, there is no older, unrepped IP that I think has anywhere close to the same chance. I mean one may get in via the surprise slot (but not necessarily, given existing IPs can have that spot too), but not being able to zero in on a likely candidate is the point of the spot.

 

[Stratos]

I'm still one of those who want Laboman as a newcomer to the Super Smash Bros. series.

 

[Amornal1]

I think that an obscure rep that should be in smash bros is olive from Princess maker.

Also, beat for smash 6.

 

[Sucumbio]

Merry Christmas!

 

[fogbadge]

Merry Christmas

 

[Amornal1]

Merry christmas to everyone

 

[Laniv]

Happy Holidays! Enjoy this art I made of some Assist Trophies:

 

[Stratos]

Merry Christmas and of course the year 2024 with very exciting news from Nintendo. Especially on January 21, 2024 is as you all know the 25th anniversary of the Super Smash Bros. series, also I read somewhere that they are planning to celebrate this day in some way, now if that last one is true I don't know, but it is definitely the day that the Super Smash Bros. series will celebrate its 25th anniversary.