Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Louie G.]

See I agree that Waluigi is objectively more well-known across the world than most of the other fighters in the game, but if you used that logic, half the roster would be Pokémon and Mario characters. Heck, Piranha Plant is more known than a lot of others. My parents could probably tell you what a Piranha Plant is before they could name a Final Fantasy character. Gotta Senate those stats and give the smaller franchises a chance.

Well, that is explicitly the reason Sakurai added Piranha Plant.

"Also, unlike some main characters from some (not widely known) franchises, Piranha Plant is a character everyone knows well."

You're right that it shouldn't and will never be Smash's sole purpose to add the most recognizable characters all the time. But they're always going to prioritize SOME as not to alienate the many casual players of Smash and Nintendo games just as well as us hardcore nerds who know wtf Joy Mech Fight and Sin and Punishment are. I think Sakurai usually strikes a good balance.

 

[Gengar84]

Well, that is explicitly the reason Sakurai added Piranha Plant.

"Also, unlike some main characters from some (not widely known) franchises, Piranha Plant is a character everyone knows well."

You're right that it shouldn't and will never be Smash's sole purpose to add the most recognizable characters all the time. But they're always going to prioritize SOME as not to alienate the many casual players of Smash and Nintendo games just as well as us hardcore nerds who know wtf Joy Mech Fight and Sin and Punishment are. I think Sakurai usually strikes a good balance.

I agree that it’s usually best to aim for a good balance in a lot of areas. Whether that means between newer and retro characters or iconic and more obscure characters, I think it’s great to get some of each. I don’t think Waluigi counts as obscure though. Mario Kart is one of Nintendo’s biggest properties and I don’t think it makes sense to discount the game just because it isn’t a mainline Mario game. Waluigi has been playable in several of those games as well as other spin-offs.

What is it about this place that always makes me feel the need to defend characters I don’t personally care about lol? I’m doing it here with Waluigi and I’ve defended Steve, who was actually my least wanted character before he was revealed.

 

[Dinoman96]

I'm not even a Waluigi fan, but it's so funny to me that people will act like Noah/Mio, Akira Howard and Alear are front runner and then act like Waluigi is not popular or important enough to be in Smash.

I guess that's just because those characters are at least the main protagonists of their respective games, so they're considered more important to their respective series than Waluigi is to Mario, the latter of which is just, well, a supporting character who appears exclusively in its spinoffs, not even the mainline platformers.

All Waluigi really has in that regard is shear popularity and recognizability.

 

[Louie G.]

I guess that's just because those characters are at least the main protagonists of their respective games, so they're considered more important to their respective series than Waluigi is to Mario, the latter of which is just, well, a supporting character who appears exclusively in its spinoffs, not even the mainline platformers.

All Waluigi really has in that regard is shear popularity and recognizability.

I think it's difficult to compare / quantify characters like this. Like, Alear or Noah / Mio are protagonists for Fire Emblem Engage and Xenoblade 3, definitely. Waluigi has never been a main protagonist and usually plays a supporting antagonist role in spinoffs, if any concrete role at all. On paper all this is true and paints that picture.

Although in another 10 years, even 20 years, Waluigi will still be showing up in Mario games and it's unlikely that Alear and Noah / Mio will be fixtures of their respective series, outside of perhaps DLC routes, amiibo and Warriors games. So how do we judge that? Comparing a character who was inarguably the protagonist of one game, vs a character who has been a supporting / playable character in upwards of 80 games. I would contest the idea that these characters are more important to their series as Waluigi is to his, Mario being a franchise with a consistent cast of which Waluigi is a longtime staple.

His role may technically be expendable but when you've got attendance this consistent in the biggest Nintendo series, I think it would at minimum put you in the same conversation as protagonists from one game in a relative B-lister series (no offense). At the end of the day the nature of these series are far too different to try and pit a character's relative importance against one another, but I think we're selling Waluigi a bit short here. The only one eclipsing him is Toad.

 

[Stratos]

I still can't believe that they brought Piranha Plant as a newcomer, because usually the simple enemies from various video games like Piranha Plant, Goomba, Koopa Troopa, Stalfos, Darknut, Like Like, Octorok, ReDead, Waddle Dee, Waddle Doo, etc. they don't put them as newcomers. But maybe it's because its Final Smash is Petey Piranha, but it still doesn't seem like a good fit for me as a fighter since it's just a regular enemy like the rest. Of course, that doesn't mean I don't like it as a newcomer.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Generally, Fire Emblem seems to add its most recent protag as a character at some point in a dev cycle (Ike, Robin, Corrin, Byleth), or an upcoming one in Roy's case.

I think as long as another FE game doesn't come out in the meantime, Alear has a really good shot, personally. I feel the same way about Noah and Mio (should stress I think they'd share a character slot or it'd just be one of them though), though that's mostly because Xenoblade 1 and 2 have added a character per Smash game so far (Shulk in 4, Pyra/Mythra in Ultimate), though obviously two does not a pattern make. IMO, they feel pretty likely though.

 

[Dinoman96]

I've said this before, but Waluigi is bit of an unfortunate case in that I think if he could be made an easy clone character, he'd probably be playable by now.

Like, Daisy is essentially the female Waluigi, a massively popular yet arguably disposable Mario side character (yeah yeah she's technically appearing in mainline games like Mario Run and more importantly Mario Wonder, but let's just ignore that for now), and yet a lot of her claim to fame more than anything is that she's just "Orange Peach", which makes her an incredibly easy echo fighter. Waluigi however isn't exactly "Purple Luigi" or "Purple Wario" and thus can't really be an easy clone of them. So that's why people question whether it's really worth it to give him the full blown newcomer treatment due to his actual status in the Mario series, regardless of how popular and reoccuring he may be.

This probably wouldn't be as much of a hang up for most if Nintendo at least:

1. let him have a starring role in a mainline Mario game (even Daisy has this going for her now)
2. let him having a starring role in a Wario Land or WarioWare game
3. just give him his spinoff series or something

 

[Sucumbio]

every game has introduced a minimum of two new Mario universe characters.

.

This.

To get more though, without losing anyone we already have, that's the question! I'd give up Plant for Toad. Then add Waluigi and King Boo / Pauline / Kamek etc.

 

[Ivander]

I'd honestly add Geno and Waluigi. Geno because he's not just a popular request, but for the next Smash Bros., unless he gets added into newer games, this is probably his only and best opportunity at getting in Smash Bros. And Waluigi because of his popularity and being highly requested.
As for Toad, King Boo and whatnot, they aren't leaving the Mario series anytime soon, so they will still be relevant, notable and have plenty of opportunities to get in another Smash Bros. game.

At least until the release of "Super MarioVerse/Super Mario Dimensions".

 

[SPEN18]

I'd honestly add Geno and Waluigi. Geno because he's not just a popular request, but for the next Smash Bros., unless he gets added into newer games, this is probably his only and best opportunity at getting in Smash Bros. And Waluigi because of his popularity and being highly requested.
As for Toad, King Boo and whatnot, they aren't leaving the Mario series anytime soon, so they will still be relevant, notable and have plenty of opportunities to get in another Smash Bros. game.

At least until the release of "Super MarioVerse/Super Mario Dimensions".

"Saving characters for later" is not how they operate, though, nor should it be. With Toad in particular, we have a character who's been on the docket for a long time now so it seems like a super odd argument to say essentially that he's worth putting in but should be left for later. "They'll always be relevant" is a reason a character would be prioritized sooner rather than later; let's not get it backwards.

 

[Ivander]

"Saving characters for later" is not how they operate, though, nor should it be. With Toad in particular, we have a character who's been on the docket for a long time now so it seems like a super odd argument to say essentially that he's worth putting in but should be left for later. "They'll always be relevant" is a reason a character would be prioritized sooner rather than later; let's not get it backwards.

It's not saving characters for later. It's putting in characters now. You don't save them for later. You either put them in or you don't. Characters not put in will have another opportunity to either be put in or not put in. Other things like popularity, relevancy and moveset potential either lets them keep their chances at a likelihood at being put in or makes their chances more unlikely as time goes by.

 

[SPEN18]

It's not saving characters for later. It's putting in characters now. You don't save them for later. You either put them in or you don't. Characters not put in will have another opportunity to either be put in or not put in. Other things like popularity, relevancy and moveset potential either lets them keep their chances at a likelihood at being put in or makes their chances more unlikely as time goes by.

In your last post it sounded like you were saying you'd prioritize Geno because it's likely his only and best chance whereas characters like Toad and King Boo are more likely to be strong candidates for future games. That's not how it works.

 

[CannonStreak]

Speaking of Geno, while it is still early since the remake released, what do you all think of Geno's chances? I'd say it's not just Geno's popularity and him being in a remake that might help his chances, and perhaps Sakurai wanting him before; I'd say his association with the Mario franchise could be another reason for him to be added. Sure, there are other characters like Waluigi, Toad and King Boo, but Geno is technically from a Mario game, but owned by Square Enix. That said, Mario itself is a very strong franchise loved by pretty much many. With the remake coming out and it being a Mario game, this will get people's curiosity for Geno up and lead to people wanting him in the next Smash more than ever.

Whatever happens, though, this should be interesting.

 

[Ivander]

In your last post it sounded like you were saying you'd prioritize Geno because it's likely his only and best chance whereas characters like Toad and King Boo are more likely to be strong candidates for future games. That's not how it works.

Because that's who I'd pick. Obviously, I'm not the one in charge of making decisions, but if I wanted to add a character I want in, the best time would be when there would be more incentive to the higher-ups to agree with the choice of putting the character I want in.

And I mean, Smash Bros. works to that extent too. The characters that mainly get put in are characters that Sakurai wants to put in. It happened for Ice Climbers over 3 other Retro characters, Robin over Chrom in Smash 4, even Piranha Plant was wanted, And I know Nintendo did pressure Sakurai for Steve, but even Steve would not have been put in if Sakurai did not want him. And the reasoning isn't exclusive to, "Because I don't want them." It can also be "I cannot figure out an idea or moveset for this character right now.", like what happened with the Villager and Pac-Man for Brawl.

 

[fogbadge]

"Saving characters for later" is not how they operate, though, nor should it be. With Toad in particular, we have a character who's been on the docket for a long time now so it seems like a super odd argument to say essentially that he's worth putting in but should be left for later. "They'll always be relevant" is a reason a character would be prioritized sooner rather than later; let's not get it backwards.

you make it sound like we're never getting him

 

[Sucumbio]

I see the point but feel resistance of counting Geno as a Mario character because of Square. Geno will be a new conception in their relationship basically since this remake era and if his game is popular yay .... Idk. I feel confident rooting for 2 New Mario Chrs and Geno.

 

[SPEN18]

Because that's who I'd pick. Obviously, I'm not the one in charge of making decisions, but if I wanted to add a character I want in, the best time would be when there would be more incentive to the higher-ups to agree with the choice of putting the character I want in.

And I mean, Smash Bros. works to that extent too. The characters that mainly get put in are characters that Sakurai wants to put in. It happened for Ice Climbers over 3 other Retro characters, Robin over Chrom in Smash 4, even Piranha Plant was wanted, And I know Nintendo did pressure Sakurai for Steve, but even Steve would not have been put in if Sakurai did not want him. And the reasoning isn't exclusive to, "Because I don't want them." It can also be "I cannot figure out an idea or moveset for this character right now.", like what happened with the Villager and Pac-Man for Brawl.

Sure, Sakurai has plenty of bias just like anyone would, and sure, his personal dispositions towards characters have influenced his choices. It would be another argument to talk about the extent to which he should or does take his personal biases and opinions on characters into the selection process.
I was just disagreeing with the premise of giving a character more priority for the specific reason that they're unlikely to be a good candidate in the future; it's one thing to add them because you think they are the best candidate right now, without regard to the future, but choosing them explicitly because they likely have a less promising future than the other options seems kind of backwards.

 

[Nabbitfan730]

but it still doesn't seem like a good fit for me as a fighter since it's just a regular enemy like the rest.

I'll argue that reasoning is ironically why he is best fit as a fighter. Him being a regular yet recognizable enemy makes him stand out a lot from roster which dominated by protagonists and heroes. One of reasons he was added in the first place.

Speaking of Geno, while it is still early since the remake released, what do you all think of Geno's chances? I'd say it's not just Geno's popularity and him being in a remake that might help his chances, and perhaps Sakurai wanting him before;Whatever happens, though, this should be interesting.

I say right now is the biggest chance in a long while, if not ever. Especially with the rumor going with new Nintendo-dedicated Bamco team. If true, then mostly Sakurai is planning the Project Plan for the next game as we speak and with RPG in spotlight + Him having desires to add him from before. It bodes very well. I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai bought a copy and is playing rn.

Speculation but i say chances is quite strong now, the question is now is how to capitalize on it.

Sure, Sakurai has plenty of bias just like anyone would, and sure, his personal dispositions towards characters have influenced his choices. It would be another argument to talk about the extent to which he should or does take his personal biases and opinions on characters into the selection process.

Sakurai does bias and personal views on things but don't it cloud his judgement as much as people think. He has stated before does curb his bias and thinks of the bigger picture. Like he said on about Online for Brawl.

 

[fogbadge]

Sakurai does bias and personal views on things but don't it cloud his judgement as much as people think. He has stated before does curb his bias and thinks of the bigger picture. Like he said on about Online for Brawl.

yeah but there’s several characters he put in for himself by his own admission

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Speaking of Geno, while it is still early since the remake released, what do you all think of Geno's chances? I'd say it's not just Geno's popularity and him being in a remake that might help his chances, and perhaps Sakurai wanting him before; I'd say his association with the Mario franchise could be another reason for him to be added. Sure, there are other characters like Waluigi, Toad and King Boo, but Geno is technically from a Mario game, but owned by Square Enix. That said, Mario itself is a very strong franchise loved by pretty much many. With the remake coming out and it being a Mario game, this will get people's curiosity for Geno up and lead to people wanting him in the next Smash more than ever.

Whatever happens, though, this should be interesting.

My tinfoil hat theory is that this remake was only done to justify including him later.

 

[CannonStreak]

My tinfoil hat theory is that this remake was only done to justify including him later.

Very odd.

I was thinking the exact same thing!

 

[fogbadge]

Very odd.

I was thinking the exact same thing!

i suspect this thought has crossed most of our minds

 

[Quillion]

Speaking of Geno, while it is still early since the remake released, what do you all think of Geno's chances? I'd say it's not just Geno's popularity and him being in a remake that might help his chances, and perhaps Sakurai wanting him before; I'd say his association with the Mario franchise could be another reason for him to be added. Sure, there are other characters like Waluigi, Toad and King Boo, but Geno is technically from a Mario game, but owned by Square Enix. That said, Mario itself is a very strong franchise loved by pretty much many. With the remake coming out and it being a Mario game, this will get people's curiosity for Geno up and lead to people wanting him in the next Smash more than ever.

Whatever happens, though, this should be interesting.

I think the crux is if Nintendo is willing to capitalize on Geno's popularity with the remake. I feel like Geno's appearance in Smash will need to accompany him being in a few Mario spin-offs between the remake and Smash. If Sakurai wants Geno but Nintendo still doesn't see the value in him, there's no chance.

Just look at how popular EarthBound/Mother became yet Itoi's company is making all the merch, not Nintendo.

 

[SharkLord]

Generally, Fire Emblem seems to add its most recent protag as a character at some point in a dev cycle (Ike, Robin, Corrin, Byleth), or an upcoming one in Roy's case.

I think as long as another FE game doesn't come out in the meantime, Alear has a really good shot, personally. I feel the same way about Noah and Mio (should stress I think they'd share a character slot or it'd just be one of them though), though that's mostly because Xenoblade 1 and 2 have added a character per Smash game so far (Shulk in 4, Pyra/Mythra in Ultimate), though obviously two does not a pattern make. IMO, they feel pretty likely though.

Alear's chances hinge on when the next Smash game releases/starts development, but honestly I think they might end up missing the mark. FE consistently releases every two, maybe three years, with the Three Houses/Engage gap only happening because COVID screwed up all the release schedules. Usually Smash releases about two years into a console's lifespan, and we're probably getting a new console in the next couple years; This indicates Smash 6 should be releasing around 2026-ish. In that time we'll likely be seeing a new Fire Emblem game, and Alear's relevancy will have dropped off by then.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Alear's chances hinge on when the next Smash game releases/starts development, but honestly I think they might end up missing the mark. FE consistently releases every two, maybe three years, with the Three Houses/Engage gap only happening because COVID screwed up all the release schedules. Usually Smash releases about two years into a console's lifespan, and we're probably getting a new console in the next couple years; This indicates Smash 6 should be releasing around 2026-ish. In that time we'll likely be seeing a new Fire Emblem game, and Alear's relevancy will have dropped off by then.

That's true, but it's also possible that the planning phase is around now for a game coming out in 2026, and Alear ends up on the base roster while the next FE protag ends up being DLC, much like how Robin was the most recent before Smash 4, and then Corrin was added a few months after Fates came out in Japan.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I think the crux is if Nintendo is willing to capitalize on Geno's popularity with the remake. I feel like Geno's appearance in Smash will need to accompany him being in a few Mario spin-offs between the remake and Smash. If Sakurai wants Geno but Nintendo still doesn't see the value in him, there's no chance.

Just look at how popular EarthBound/Mother became yet Itoi's company is making all the merch, not Nintendo.

...Earthbound has merch?

 

[SharkLord]

That's true, but it's also possible that the planning phase is around now for a game coming out in 2026, and Alear ends up on the base roster while the next FE protag ends up being DLC, much like how Robin was the most recent before Smash 4, and then Corrin was added a few months after Fates came out in Japan.

Perhaps, but Fates wasn't actually released during 4's base game. Presumably, we'll have a new FE game actually out by the time Smash 6 swings around.

Of course, that on it's own is speculation, so it's kinda hard to tell. Not much else we can say on that until we actually do see another FE release

 

[CannonStreak]

I think the crux is if Nintendo is willing to capitalize on Geno's popularity with the remake. I feel like Geno's appearance in Smash will need to accompany him being in a few Mario spin-offs between the remake and Smash. If Sakurai wants Geno but Nintendo still doesn't see the value in him, there's no chance.

Just look at how popular EarthBound/Mother became yet Itoi's company is making all the merch, not Nintendo.

Well, I do think Geno should have at least one more game to get at least more of a chance to get in Smash. That said, I do not think he needs to be in too many games before getting into Smash.

With that, as I may have said before, Geno does have some Mario and Nintendo history in the sense that he is a character from the very first Mario RPG game there is. What better way to represent that than by adding Geno in as a playable?

Still, like you and I said, he could use appearances in one or more other games before getting in.

 

[Quillion]

...Earthbound has merch?

Yep: check out this and this. It's all made by Itoi's company.

With that, as I may have said before, Geno does have some Mario and Nintendo history in the sense that he is a character from the very first Mario RPG game there is. What better way to represent that than by adding Geno in as a playable?

That's the thing though, he's a part of the RPGs... but the RPGs aren't exactly an important part of the Mario franchise as a whole despite their fandom.

Because if the RPGs were an important part of the greater Mario franchise, the spin-offs would have some RPG characters by now.

 

[Guynamednelson]

...Earthbound has merch?

Technically every franchise in Smash has to thanks to Amiibo.

 

[CannonStreak]

Yep: check out this and this. It's all made by Itoi's company.



That's the thing though, he's a part of the RPGs... but the RPGs aren't exactly an important part of the Mario franchise as a whole despite their fandom.

Because if the RPGs were an important part of the greater Mario franchise, the spin-offs would have some RPG characters by now.

Ah, you raise a good point, Quillion. Still, this is a game with Mario starring in it, and Mario is popular on the widespread level, and with how big he is, and if Sakurai still sees interest in him, that could help him some.

I must remember though that in the end, one or more game appearances for Geno should be done if he is to be in Smash.

That said, didn't one of the people being Super Mario RPG express interest in a possible sequel?

 

[Arcanir]

The big question with Alear is when the project plan was/is going to be pegged. Sakurai did say that if FE Awakening released six months earlier or later Robin could've missed the boat and we don't know when the next game has started development. If Engage released relatively too early for it, then Alear could hypothetically be skipped for missing the window.

 

[Quillion]

The big question with Alear is when the project plan was/is going to be pegged. Sakurai did say that if FE Awakening released six months earlier or later Robin could've missed the boat and we don't know when the next game has started development. If Engage released relatively too early for it, then Alear could hypothetically be skipped for missing the window.

It's actually a shame; I think Alear is easily the most likeable of the Awakening-on Fire Emblem protagonists, but the combination of their game's timing and it not selling all that well compared to the previous ones doesn't sound good for them.

This is just another frustration with this pattern of having the "rotating cast" franchises always get the most relevant character: the actually good and/or unique characters always miss the boat, and the ones we get are either hated or loved and abandoned in a fickle manner.

 

[ARandomFruit]

I think Alear has some chance because of the possibility of the next FE game being a 4 remake. So far all the remakes have skipped a character getting in and this one might also.

 

[SharkLord]

I think Alear has some chance because of the possibility of the next FE game being a 4 remake. So far all the remakes have skipped a character getting in and this one might also.

To be fair, Shadows of Valentia released a bit after Ultimate even started development, so it's also likely a "missed the boat" situation; Besides, the other two remakes focused on Marth, who was already in Smash anyways, so there's not much of a pattern to go off of

 

[DarthEnderX]

My tinfoil hat theory is that this remake was only done to justify including him later.

I've said as much before.

Sakurai: "I want Geno in Smash."
Nintendo: "I'm sorry, but there's no reason to add him now."
Sakurai: "Square, remake SMRPG!"
Square: "Yes master."
Sakurai: "Sakurai fix."

...Earthbound has merch?

2 Amiibos.

 

[Quillion]

I think the biggest possibility for Alear is if the development team is full of fans of them at this point. Corrin was a group decision that was strong enough to override Sakurai's opinion back in Smash 4.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Speaking of Geno, while it is still early since the remake released, what do you all think of Geno's chances? I'd say it's not just Geno's popularity and him being in a remake that might help his chances, and perhaps Sakurai wanting him before; I'd say his association with the Mario franchise could be another reason for him to be added. Sure, there are other characters like Waluigi, Toad and King Boo, but Geno is technically from a Mario game, but owned by Square Enix. That said, Mario itself is a very strong franchise loved by pretty much many. With the remake coming out and it being a Mario game, this will get people's curiosity for Geno up and lead to people wanting him in the next Smash more than ever.

Whatever happens, though, this should be interesting.

This is only vaguely related, but I have to ask: is it just me, or was the remake not talked about a lot by Nintendo? Like obviously we got trailers and whatnot, but we didn't even know who was making it until RIGHT BEFORE release, and correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think we ever got info on why they suddenly decided to remake SMRPG in the first place. Like... IDK how to describe it, but something about the leadup to release for the game has felt... different than usual.

It might just be me, though. I tend to overthink stuff sometimes.

 

[SPEN18]

Alright, this is too far into conspiracy theory territory. They did not remake SMRPG as a longplay to fabricate a justification to put Geno in Smash. Not like they would need such justification anyway if that was the character they actually wanted to put in and promote through Smash (which I really don't think he is, but that's besides the point).
Sure, they probably saw Geno's popularity on the ballot or elsewhere and that could have contributed to the decision to remake SMRPG, but that's it.

Remember SMRPG would still make sense to be remade without a character like Geno being in it at all, as it's a safe, Mario-branded, low-investment remake that fits well helping to bridge the gap to the next hardware. Also remember that promotion of remakes is rarely ever tied to characters in Smash.

This way, they get to throw a bone to Geno fans without having to actually go out of their way like investing a Smash character slot would be, as this is a game that makes just as much sense to be remade with or without Geno in it at all.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Games don't get made to justify potential future inclusions.

This is real cart before the horse thinking.