Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[CannonStreak]

I believe the biggest barrier is not resources or time, hut third party licensing.

Yeah, I know. I was just labeling resources and time as another factor, not THE factor alone.

 

[EarlTamm]

If he does not bring everyone back next game, it could also be because Nintendo did not give him enough time to do so, like with Smash Bros. for Wii U and 3DS, if I recall correctly. What are the chances of that happening again?

Maybe I am just being optimistic, but Super Mario Wonder apparently didn't have a deadline, so perhaps they will be very open to giving Sakurai a lot of time and resources?

 

[Nekoo]

If he does not bring everyone back next game, it could also be because Nintendo did not give him enough time to do so, like with Smash Bros. for Wii U and 3DS, if I recall correctly. What are the chances of that happening again?

And this is why smash games always build upon each others, and never straight up start to 0. Which makes the code sometimes a mess to be fair, as you can see the code and logic evolve as time and sometime rarely much updated.

I wish I was kidding, but almost all veteran (except the returning from Ultimate) are basically the same since Brawl, except when changes were needed/ updated. But otherwise, they legit just import the code and change values.

And it's also why we find so much leftovers from past game.

But it's also why it's easy to bring back everyone and build upon the past.

No smash game start from 0.
Each smash game is literally and legit the evolution of the previous one.

So...NAH, we good now that literally EVERYONE IS HERE. Makes it all so easier to bring back everyone now

 

[Guynamednelson]

have very little newcomers in base game

...this is exactly why I don't want an Ultimate Deluxe in the first place.

 

[CannonStreak]

And this is why smash games always build upon each others, and never straight up start to 0. Which makes the code sometimes a mess to be fair, as you can see the code and logic evolve as time and sometime rarely much updated.

I wish I was kidding, but almost all veteran (except the returning from Ultimate) are basically the same since Brawl, except when changes were needed/ updated. But otherwise, they legit just import the code and change values.

And it's also why we find so much leftovers from past game.

But it's also why it's easy to bring back everyone and build upon the past.

No smash game start from 0.
Each smash game is literally and legit the evolution of the previous one.

So...NAH, we good now that literally EVERYONE IS HERE. Makes it all so easier to bring back everyone now

Maybe so, but there are still possible licensing issues. Just saying, like with the other post of mine you quoted.

Maybe I am just being optimistic, but Super Mario Wonder apparently didn't have a deadline, so perhaps they will be very open to giving Sakurai a lot of time and resources?

Possible, but don't count that as THE only reason not to bring everyone back. It is just A reason.

 

[Garteam]

My guess is we'll get a lion's share of the Ultimate cast back (approximately 50 or so veterans) but the flipside is that many of the more recent vets will be largely unchanged. The Wii U/3DS newcomers were very much the same in terms of their movesets and animations when jumping to Ultimate, which was likely a major factor in the feasibility of bringing everyone back. The same thing could be done with Ultimate's batch of newcomers, which would allow for a bigger roster even with cuts.

I also don't think licensing is going to be an issue. Sega, Capcom, Namco, Konami, and SNK have all been incredibly generous and cooperative when it comes to Smash. Microsoft also seems to be relatively easy to work with. Square Enix and Disney are the wildcards, but even Square seems a lot more open to content in Smash relative to Ultimate's release. I think the question with Cloud, Hero, Sephiroth, and Sora is whether they'd be base game or DLC characters.

 

[Pacack]

I expect that we'll get the whole of the Nintendo cast back barring technical issues.

 

[Nekoo]

Maybe so, but there are still possible licensing issues. Just saying, like with the other post of mine you quoted.

Licencing issue for third party, yeah, sure, and it's probably the part that take the most energy and resource probably in smash peculiar developement workflow.
But in term of resource or whatnot? At least for the first party? We good.

As for third party, it depends how their contract was made. For exemple, it's an educated guess that Cloud and Bayonetta were probably negociated for Ultimate at the same time as their appearance and release on Wii U. As per Sakurai word, the day the final smash direct for Wii U/3DS was release is the day he finished the game design documents for Ultimate / Development went full steam ahead, which is probably why neither Cloud, and Bayonetta got nothing new in Ultimate, since their contract was the same.
(And probably explain why they feel so off in comparison to others DLC / characters in that game, since they were probably made for another game in mind.)

I also don't think licensing is going to be an issue. Sega, Capcom, Namco, Konami, and SNK have all been incredibly generous and cooperative when it comes to Smash. Microsoft also seems to be relatively easy to work with. Square Enix and Disney are the wildcards, but even Square seems a lot more open to content in Smash relative to Ultimate's release. I think the question with Cloud, Hero, Sephiroth, and Sora is whether they'd be base game or DLC characters.

I think we'll be good for Square-Enix, we know by Sakurai words that Cloud was the most popular character online, and with Sora being literally the Smash Ballot winner and most requested character ever in smash, to the point of hiding the result and hoping for making it happens, he'll try his damn best to get him back.

 

[CannonStreak]

Licencing issue for third party, yeah, sure, and it's probably the part that take the most energy and resource probably in smash peculiar developement workflow.
But in term of resource or whatnot? At least for the first party? We good.

As for third party, it depends how their contract was made. For exemple, it's an educated guess that Cloud and Bayonetta were probably negociated for Ultimate at the same time as their appearance and release on Wii U. As per Sakurai word, the day the final smash direct for Wii U/3DS was release is the day he finished the game design documents for Ultimate / Development went full steam ahead, which is probably why neither Cloud, and Bayonetta got nothing new in Ultimate, since their contract was the same.
(And probably explain why they feel so off in comparison to others DLC / characters in that game, since they were probably made for another game in mind.)

That is interesting stuff...

Anyway, I was stating resources and time as a possibility, so all I think will be an issue will be more so the likes of licensing, which may be easier or harder depending on the contracts AND maybe depending on the company with the character Sakurai tries to get, if I have that down correctly.

 

[Pacack]

Oops, double post.

 

[Garteam]

I think we'll be good for Square-Enix, we know by Sakurai words that Cloud was the most popular character online, and with Sora being literally the Smash Ballot winner and most requested character ever in smash, to the point of hiding the result and hoping for making it happens, he'll try his damn best to get him back.

Yeah, I agree that Cloud and Sora are generally safe for the next Smash generally, but I could see their owners playing hardball and demanding that they be saved to get those sweet, sweet DLC fees. I think Cloud is a relatively likely base game character because he's already been in once and Square has other characters they could push for DLC, including Hero and Sephiroth. Sora is kind of a question mark because there's no precedent on how Disney would act in regards to the base game.

 

[CannonStreak]

Yeah, I agree that Cloud and Sora are generally safe for the next Smash generally, but I could see their owners playing hardball and demanding that they be saved to get those sweet, sweet DLC fees. I think Cloud is a relatively likely base game character because he's already been in once and Square has other characters they could push for DLC, including Hero and Sephiroth. Sora is kind of a question mark because there's no precedent on how Disney would act in regards to the base game.

Yeah, I can see that happening with the DLC fees. I am worried this may be the case for any other character they (specifically Square Enix) have, especially Geno, but not limited to him, of course.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I expect that we'll get the whole of the Nintendo cast back barring technical issues.

I dont think Young link is coming back tbh lol

 

[Pacack]

I dont think Young link is coming back tbh lol

If Sakurai was inclined to bring him back for Ultimate, why would he change his mind and remove him for the next game?

 

[Guynamednelson]

If Sakurai was inclined to bring him back for Ultimate, why would he change his mind and remove him for the next game?

Because we're not getting everyone back lmao

Okay but seriously, he's already had Toon Link be sort of a replacement for him anyway even though we can now see there's more to the two than both being small Links.

 

[Nekoo]

Idk why people are worried for Square-Enix imo. They went from 1 rep to 4 suddenly in one game.
I feel that if they didn't really believe in smash, they wouldn't have gone that far already.

Especially considering how Nintendo and Square-Enix are back in their love story from pre-N64 era. Like boiz, they're remaking SMRPG, if they weren't in love, they wouldn't touch that game with a ten foot pole.

 

[Pacack]

Because we're not getting everyone back lmao

Okay but seriously, he's already had Toon Link be sort of a replacement for him anyway even though we can now see there's more to the two than both being small Links.

Sakurai doesn't think like that. Someone will be made unhappy that the lost their main after having them back in Ultimate, and he has no reason to backpedal. The point of whether you think the character is worthy or not is irrelevant. Sakurai made a very concerted effort to add back every veteran. Because to him and people who play those cut characters, it's worth it.

 

[CannonStreak]

Sakurai doesn't think like that. Someone will be made unhappy that the lost their main after having them back in Ultimate, and he has no reason to backpedal. The point of whether you think the character is worthy or not is irrelevant. Sakurai made a very concerted effort to add back every veteran. Because to him and people who play those cut characters, it's worth it.

I was thinking something like that. Not only does he do things fans don't think he would do, but he must go by this philosophy: Once a Smasher, always a Smasher, if you know what I mean.

 

[Nekoo]

I was thinking something like that. Not only does he do things fans don't think he would do, but he must go by this philosophy: Once a Smasher, always a Smasher, if you know what I mean.

I know. My girlfriend tell me that a lot.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Honestly I think I need to come clean.

I don't mind discussing cuts and I fully expect the next title to have them, especially if the gameplay is going to radically change.

What I do mind is people begging for cuts just to "purge the roster of undesirables."

What I do mind is people making cut wishlists because that just feels like a jerk move.

What I do mind is people being comfortable in their ignorance instead of learning why a character got picked and trying to see that character's value.

What I do mind is people straight up not understanding how game development works.

What I do mind is thinking cutting a character will right some perceived slight.

What I do mind is people making stupid broad generalizations like "nobody asked for this character" or "nobody loves this character."


Right now, it's chill. We've had great, fun, reasonable and productive cut discussions. But when that hype cycle comes around, all hell is going to break lose.

I guess I don't mind cut discussions at their core. I just hate stupidity. And for some reason the two overlap more often than not.

 

[CannonStreak]

Honestly I think I need to come clean.

I don't mind discussing cuts and I fully expect the next title to have them, especially if the gameplay is going to radically change.

What I do mind is people begging for cuts just to "purge the roster of undesirables."

What I do mind is people making cut wishlists because that just feels like a jerk move.

What I do mind is people being comfortable in their ignorance instead of learning why a character got picked and trying to see that character's value.

What I do mind is people straight up not understanding how game development works.

What I do mind is thinking cutting a character will right some perceived slight.

What I do mind is people just stupid broad generalizations like "nobody asked for this character" or "nobody loves this character."


Right now, it's chill. We've had great, fun, reasonable and productive cut discussions. But when that hype cycle comes around, all hell is going to break lose.

I guess I don't mind cut discussions at their core. I just hate stupidity. And for some reason the two overlap more often than most.

You can say that, again! There will be chaos once more Smash is revealed to be happening, whenever that is.

I agree with the other things you said, by the way.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I never really made any sort of cut wishlist or anything, i just think some characters are lower priority than others.

Like for young link specifically he never would have come back if it wasnt for everyone is here because Toon link effectively replaced him.

 

[Pacack]

In terms of my actual level of concern regarding cuts.

Tier 1:


I do think Disney was surprisingly easy to work with, all things considered. I might be pleasantly surprised. But, also, the negotiations over him being a base game character seem...so, so much harder to deal with than negotiating him for DLC.

Tier 2:


I'm more optimistic than not about Square Enix at this point, but...well, I worry that Sakurai may have had to promise another Final Fantasy character in order to promise an additional source of DLC revenue. I have no actual basis for this, but it seems possible as a negotiating tactic to keep Cloud in base game. I feel like negotiating for all four of Sora, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Hero for base game is gonna be rough.

While Microsoft seems pretty buddy buddy with Nintendo recently all things considered, I do worry about Banjo and, especially, Steve also. Banjo I can see them not being too attached to, but Minecraft is an especially valuable property and I'm not sure how Sakurai convinces them to let him use Steve again for the base game this time without promising something. Maybe Master Chief DLC, which is crazy to even contemplate? But that leaves Mojang out of the picture, right? I can't imagine a second Minecraft character. The negotiations around that one seem like they're gonna be thorny.

Tier 3:


While it seems Konami was surprisingly easy to work with, all things considered, I worry about Snake and the messy legal situation he got tied up in. That said, they seem to have been able to pull off both him and a newcomer (technically two) from the same company for base game. So I'm not as worried for them as I am for others.

Tier 4:


I'm not seriously concerned for Terry, but he stands out as the only third party character who is alone representing his company. I wonder if SNK considers Terry in Smash free advertising or if him being DLC before will be an issue. I can't guess, really.

Tier 5:


While I'm pretty confident about the other characters from these companies coming back, they seem more at risk than the tier below, which I view as essentially totally safe. I imagine it wouldn't be a problem to get them back, though, so long as Atlus isn't a concern for Joker.

Tier 6:


If any of these characters don't come back, I'll eat a hat. Sonic and Pac-Man are too iconic and are their company's mascots, and Mega Man and Ryu are sharing that mascot spotlight for Capcom. Bayonetta is special because her games are funded by Nintendo in exchange for exclusivity, so she's just a step away from being second party.

So, realistically, I could see as many as, like, 10 cuts? But that would seem like carnage and mayhem to me. I feel like Sakurai would be devastated losing that many characters.

 

[StormC]

I think it's inevitable characters get cut (even Nintendo ones) but I doubt it will be as drastic as some proselytize. Maybe 7-10 unique characters or so get the cut with a focus on slightly more newcomers than Ultimate. I'd love for them all to come back, but I'm keeping expectations in check.

 

[Pacack]

I never really made any sort of cut wishlist or anything, i just think some characters are lower priority than others.

Like for young link specifically he never would have come back if it wasnt for everyone is here because Toon link effectively replaced him.

All good. I don't think Swamp was vagueposting about you. I agree that, if Sakurai were extremely strapped for resources for some reason (which I do not see happening, thankfully) Young Link is maybe the lowest priority of the first party Nintendo characters. Maybe Ice Climbers just because of how many development resources they take, but it's probably one of those two if I had to pick. Doc shares proportions with Mario so he's easy and safe, I think. Young Link has different proportions so his animations are a bit harder to manage than a typical clone.

 

[Deleted member]

In terms of my actual level of concern regarding cuts.

Tier 1:


I do think Disney was surprisingly easy to work with, all things considered. I might be pleasantly surprised. But, also, the negotiations over him being a base game character seem...so, so much harder to deal with than negotiating him for DLC.

Tier 2:


I'm more optimistic than not about Square Enix at this point, but...well, I worry that Sakurai may have had to promise another Final Fantasy character in order to promise an additional source of DLC revenue. I have no actual basis for this, but it seems possible as a negotiating tactic to keep Cloud in base game. I feel like negotiating for all four of Sora, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Hero for base game is gonna be rough.

While Microsoft seems pretty buddy buddy with Nintendo recently all things considered, I do worry about Banjo and, especially, Steve also. Banjo I can see them not being too attached to, but Minecraft is an especially valuable property and I'm not sure how Sakurai convinces them to let him use Steve again for the base game this time without promising something. Maybe Master Chief DLC, which is crazy to even contemplate? But that leaves Mojang out of the picture, right? I can't imagine a second Minecraft character. The negotiations around that one seem like they're gonna be thorny.

Tier 3:


While it seems Konami was surprisingly easy to work with, all things considered, I worry about Snake and the messy legal situation he got tied up in. That said, they seem to have been able to pull off both him and a newcomer (technically two) from the same company for base game. So I'm not as worried for them as I am for others.

Tier 4:


I'm not seriously concerned for Terry, but he stands out as the only third party character who is alone representing his company. I wonder if SNK considers Terry in Smash free advertising or if him being DLC before will be an issue. I can't guess, really.

Tier 5:


While I'm pretty confident about the other characters from these companies coming back, they seem more at risk than the tier below, which I view as essentially totally safe. I imagine it wouldn't be a problem to get them back, though, so long as Atlus isn't a concern for Joker.

Tier 6:


If any of these characters don't come back, I'll eat a hat. Sonic and Pac-Man are too iconic and are their company's mascots, and Mega Man and Ryu are sharing that mascot spotlight for Capcom. Bayonetta is special because her games are funded by Nintendo in exchange for exclusivity, so she's just a step away from being second party.

So, realistically, I could see as many as, like, 10 cuts? But that would seem like carnage and mayhem to me. I feel like Sakurai would be devastated losing that many characters.

I'm the weirdo that thinks all the videogame companies will be ok with their character returning, for most developers having their character in Smash is a honor, it would be weird if they suddenly wanted their characters cut or got greedy.
I think Sora is the most likely to get cut bc he's from a non-videogame company, but Disney has KH4 in the horizon, so it's not like they'll lose anything by having him back, if anything, they'll gain.
I think if a character gets cut will be because of time.

 

[Nekoo]

Sora will be fine, considering from Sakurai word and Nomura word after, Disney were absolutely on board for Sora, all thing surprised (to Sakurai own admission.) Nomura was the one who had peculiar request for Sora (as his own baby), which, well...all made in considering that he's in game.

 

[Noipoi]

Where first parties are considered, Young Link is absolutely gone. He's only here because of Everyone is Here. Honestly I think Pichu is gone too.

Aside from that, I'm gonna say Incineroar and Corrin are also cut. To make space for newer reps from their respective franchises.

After that, meh. I could see everyone else coming back.

 

[Deleted member]

Where first parties are considered, Young Link is absolutely gone. He's only here because of Everyone is Here. Honestly I think Pichu is gone too.

Aside from that, I'm gonna say Incineroar and Corrin are also cut. To make space for newer reps from their respective franchises.

After that, meh. I could see everyone else coming back.

I could see Plant and to a lesser extent Sheik and ZSS go as well...

 

[Wonder Smash]

The way I view cuts is that if there are going to be cuts, I at least want something to make up for them. Whether it's another major character from the same company or a similar character from the same genre.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I never really made any sort of cut wishlist or anything, i just think some characters are lower priority than others.

Like for young link specifically he never would have come back if it wasnt for everyone is here because Toon link effectively replaced him.

In terms of my actual level of concern regarding cuts.

Tier 1:


I do think Disney was surprisingly easy to work with, all things considered. I might be pleasantly surprised. But, also, the negotiations over him being a base game character seem...so, so much harder to deal with than negotiating him for DLC.

Tier 2:


I'm more optimistic than not about Square Enix at this point, but...well, I worry that Sakurai may have had to promise another Final Fantasy character in order to promise an additional source of DLC revenue. I have no actual basis for this, but it seems possible as a negotiating tactic to keep Cloud in base game. I feel like negotiating for all four of Sora, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Hero for base game is gonna be rough.

While Microsoft seems pretty buddy buddy with Nintendo recently all things considered, I do worry about Banjo and, especially, Steve also. Banjo I can see them not being too attached to, but Minecraft is an especially valuable property and I'm not sure how Sakurai convinces them to let him use Steve again for the base game this time without promising something. Maybe Master Chief DLC, which is crazy to even contemplate? But that leaves Mojang out of the picture, right? I can't imagine a second Minecraft character. The negotiations around that one seem like they're gonna be thorny.

Tier 3:


While it seems Konami was surprisingly easy to work with, all things considered, I worry about Snake and the messy legal situation he got tied up in. That said, they seem to have been able to pull off both him and a newcomer (technically two) from the same company for base game. So I'm not as worried for them as I am for others.

Tier 4:


I'm not seriously concerned for Terry, but he stands out as the only third party character who is alone representing his company. I wonder if SNK considers Terry in Smash free advertising or if him being DLC before will be an issue. I can't guess, really.

Tier 5:


While I'm pretty confident about the other characters from these companies coming back, they seem more at risk than the tier below, which I view as essentially totally safe. I imagine it wouldn't be a problem to get them back, though, so long as Atlus isn't a concern for Joker.

Tier 6:


If any of these characters don't come back, I'll eat a hat. Sonic and Pac-Man are too iconic and are their company's mascots, and Mega Man and Ryu are sharing that mascot spotlight for Capcom. Bayonetta is special because her games are funded by Nintendo in exchange for exclusivity, so she's just a step away from being second party.

So, realistically, I could see as many as, like, 10 cuts? But that would seem like carnage and mayhem to me. I feel like Sakurai would be devastated losing that many characters.

Yeah stuff like this is fine and appreciated.

It's just stuff like...

"I hate X, it could have been Y" that starts to grind my gears.



Also, y'all think we're only getting 10 cuts? I'm thinking like at least 15-20.

 

[Noipoi]

I could see Plant and to a lesser extent Sheik and ZSS go as well...

Oop- I forgot Plant. Yeah, that thing is gone too.

Sheik and ZSS....I dunno. I feel like they'll stick around. They aren't weaker rips on other characters, nor do their franchises routinely get new marketable mascots to take their places.

 

[Nekoo]

Yeah stuff like this is fine and appreciated.

It's just stuff like...

"I hate X, it could have been Y" that starts to grind my gears.



Also, y'all think we're only getting 10 cuts? I'm thinking like at least 15-20.

5 Cuts Max. I'm crazy like that.

 

[CannonStreak]

I don't think some characters that people think will be cut will necessarily be cut. I mean, I am not saying there will be no cuts, but I can see some characters people think will be cut or expect to be cut for reasons will just stick around. I mean, an example is that the likes of Jigglypuff would be cut in Brawl in speculation (and it almost was, if I recall correctly) and Ike would be cut in Smash Bros. for Wii U and 3DS, among other characters, and look what happened with them. This is not counting Ultimate, by the way.

 

[EarlTamm]

The way I view cuts is that if there are going to be cuts, I at least want something to make up for them. Whether it's another major character from the same company or a similar character from the same genre.

I mentioned this before, but this is why I think we will still see Square newcomers even if some of the Square vets are gone. No one wants to feel like the sequel is direct downgrade in an aspect as big as roster.

 

[Noipoi]

I don't think some characters that people think will be cut will necessarily be cut. I mean, I am not saying there will be no cuts, but I can see some characters people think will be cut or expect to be cut for reasons will just stick around. I mean, an example is that the likes of Jigglypuff would be cut in Brawl in speculation (and it almost was, if I recall correctly) and Ike would be cut in Smash Bros. for Wii U and 3DS, among other characters, and look what happened with them. This is not counting Ultimate, by the way.

Jigglypuff holds a knife to Sakurai's throat whenever he even thinks of dropping her, so that's why she's still here.

 

[Sucumbio]

I have a running list I keep saved and is ever expanding.

Returning:

Zero Suit Samus
Pyra/Mythra
Piranha Plant
King K Rool
Incineroar
Richter Belmont
Dr. Mario
Joker
Chrom
Miis

Newcomers:

Geno

I predict these characters based on a hypothesis I derrived from interactions experienced while playing elite smash. So it's probably false lol.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

You know, this discussion had me remember I made a tier list discussing how safe I think each character is.

Since we got a lot of different people, I might as well post it again.

Tell me what you think.

 

[StormC]

Also, y'all think we're only getting 10 cuts? I'm thinking like at least 15-20.

It really depends but I feel like each character having HD models and assets is a huge boon that will make it easier to bring them back. Obviously bringing back old character isn't just a drag and drop, and some characters we can expect to get significant aesthetic changes like the Triforce wielders, but overall I think they will make sure to bring back as many characters as possible. Maybe as many as 15 characters could be cut but I'm not expecting more than that, unless we're getting a huge set of newcomers (like comparable to Brawl/Smash 4).

 

[Deleted member]

You know, this discussion had me remember I made a tier list discussing how safe I think each character is.

Since we got a lot of different people, I might as well post it again.

Tell me what you think.

Mostly agree except Byleth, i think he's very likely to return as TH is the best selling FE i believe?

Makes me wonder if we'll get more 3rd party characters base game if we end up having 14 newcomers base.