Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[RodNutTakin]

The fact that Joker got in over other in-house Sega properties, Shin Megami Tensei, and even something easy like a Shadow semiclone/echo really makes me think that it's hard to get a real idea of a Sega pecking order here to be honest. One of my lines of thinking is that unless Sakurai has any more game series from the company that he's really passionate about, Sega is going to be the kind of company that's going to have characters picked more by the business side of Nintendo, and I still think that a 2nd Sonic character and Arle are the two that a Nintendo suit is going to go for since those are likely to bring in the most money. I could easily see both getting in since Sonic is more West popular and Puyo is more East popular. And as I've said before, there seems to be some friction/hesitance between Nintendo and the RGG team that I feel could only be broken if either Sakurai or someone on RGG's team was really passionate about collaborating, which is why I can't fullheartedly factor in Like a Dragon having worldwide popularity.

Does anyone have a source (or multiple) backing up that Arle is a particularly popular request in Japan? I know that's sometimes a reason that is thrown around for her inclusion, but I've never seen direct evidence confirming that claim.

I apologize for not having a direct source (as I am largely unaware and unequipped to search Japanese internet spaces), but my line of thinking here is that it's more that her home series that is popular and widespread in Japan, and its influence and legacy over there along with a successful foothold outside of Japan that would cause the devs or business suits to seriously consider her. I'd imagine that there's a relatively silent majority there as well, like how there was one for the Belmonts (They were popular requests according to the devs, even though I never really heard them get talked about during the Smash 4 ballot period).
It helps as well that there's a good amount of guests in Smash that have ties to the arcade scene, whether major (Pac-Man, the Shotos, Terry, and Kazuya all being in) or minor (Mega Man having his uppercut from MvC, Sonic using moves from Championship/the Fighters.)
It's the same line of thinking I have for why I think the Parodius octopi family are also a dark horse. The Japanese really love Konami's shooting games.

 

[Geno Boost]

I'd say Puyo Puyo is well known enough in the West at this point compared to where it was at the beginning of Ultimate speculation. I'd say it's definitely at least more talked about in Smash circles over here than Like a Dragon is. I'd say it's at least Fatal Fury/King of Fighters tier here.

puyo puyo and dragon quest arent the same dragon quest is the father of rpg games however puyo puyo is ant size compared to other puzzle games like tetris and bejeweled and candy crush just sayin
i just find tetromino way more likely to be picked if nintendo wanted a puzzle 3rd party rep plus the fact that arle has to compete with many sega reps especially angry birds which is another puzzle game series that pretty much is the face of mobile games

 

[StormC]

The fact that Joker got in over other in-house Sega properties, Shin Megami Tensei, and even something easy like a Shadow semiclone/echo really makes me think that it's hard to get a real idea of a Sega pecking order here to be honest.

Why would an echo fighter be chosen over a brand new character?

Persona 5 got picked because it was a successful and beloved game, I don't think there's more to it than that. Certainly far more than any SMT game.

 

[Nekoo]

Coming back from my grave to say something simple.

Joker got in because everyone and their mom was talking about Persona 5. That game basically was a "renewal" for JRPG, a style of game generaly seen as having slow and bland combat and then, P5 comes in by being the most stylish mofo around. To the point of every JRPG nowadays tries to copy it.

As for Sega characters, they seems to have all gotten in because of how popular they were at X time. (Sonic being the outside of being ALWAYS popular) , Bayonetta just came back thanks to Bayo 2 with a partnership and then was a good choice to be snaked into the """""""""""""""""""winner""""""""""""" with the biggest asterisk of "within realizable fighter" (she never was as we learned later lmao)
And P5 being stupid popular around that time (and still stupid popular nowadays that even P3 is leaning to become like P5 with it's remake)

As much as some choice like Street of Rage's Axel, or Arle...

I feel that, SPECIFICALLY for guest characters, you need to be a big name / popular to get in smash, and so far, there hasn't been an exception in that rule.

 

[Speed Weed]

Axel seems like the type of character that Sakurai would add for that reason too, he just seems like a Sakurai pic to me like Terry, and i'm not biased bc i've never played either of the games.



The thing is that Arle doesn't have the massive popularity as Mega Man or Banjo did, so it's not really comparable, also Banjo and Mega Man have deeper history with Nintendo while RE and DMC have not much history with Nintendo, MH you could agree is bc it's more suited for a boss than a playable character.
Halo and Gears have no games in Nintendo consoles and Gears is probably not popular in Japan, which lowers their chances significally.
DOOM wasn't even a Microsoft rep when they picked Banjo i'm sure.

And like i said adove, Axel just seems like the type of "overlooked" character that Sakurai would pick, similar to Terry, while Arle just doesn't seem the type of character Sakurai goes for, i think she's more likely to be an AT than playable.




He still makes more sense than a Puyo Puyo rep to me, Yakuza is both popular in the east and in the west, which is an important factor.
Also, he's definitely not the first SEGA rep in line, that's probably Nahobino or Tails/Knuckles/Shadow/Eggman.

I don't get it though. What does "being a pick Sakurai would go for" mean? What is the criteria for this vague sentiment? It's entirely subjective and frankly means nothing IMO. I could just as easily say Arle feels to me like someone Sakurai would add and it'd have the same effect.

What I really don't understand here, though, is that you keep talking about how Puyo won't get in because it's only really popular in Japan, and not only is that not true considering the increased brand awareness it's had in the West in recent years.....but Streets is arguably just as regionally lopsided. It's not unknown in Japan, don't get me wrong, but it's much less popular there than it is the west, it's kind of just seen as one of many decently well-liked retro SEGA properties, it's not a "face" of the company by any means. You mention Yakuza as an example of a series with stronger worldwide recognition, and IMO that's a much fairer example, and a series I can very much see the argument for getting in over Puyo even if I'd prefer the latter. I just feel like if we're striving for worldwide recognition, then dismissing a series that's more known in Japan while pushing for one that has the same problem but in reverse.....feels like a double standard to me.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Let's compromise, people!
I like the idea of a Puyo Puyo stage without a playable character, but what if in the western release, it changes to Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine? In both regions is Sonic's home stage. (Somewhat a reverse case of R.O.B.)

 

[Nekoo]

Let's compromise, people!
I like the idea of a Puyo Puyo stage without a playable character, but what if in the western release, it changes to Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine? In both regions is Sonic's home stage. (Somewhat a reverse case of R.O.B.)

I'd love a Puyo Puyo stage, or musics, I'd take an assist trophy even.
Heck, just have a weird ass Stage akin to that one Sonic Riders map "Sega Carnival" where it's just a bunch of reference to multiples sega games

 

[RodNutTakin]

Why would an echo fighter be chosen over a brand new character?

My syntax was a bit vague, but in this particular case I'm mainly talking about how they could've made Shadow a clone or Echo Fighter for Ultimate considering people seemed to clamor for him up and down even before Ultimate came out, he's a very popular character in general, and yet he remained an Assist and got nothing in the end. In fact, the only outright new thing that Sega got for Ultmiate that wasn't P5 related was the Akira AT and Spirit, and absolutely nothing else. It just feels weird that the company got nothing post-Joker when even Square Enix gave out spirits for then-recent games they were promoting on Switch.

puyo puyo and dragon quest arent the same dragon quest is the father of rpg games however puyo puyo is ant size compared to other puzzle games like tetris and bejeweled and candy crush just sayin
i just find tetromino way more likely to be picked if nintendo wanted a puzzle 3rd party rep plus the fact that arle has to compete with many sega reps especially angry birds which is another puzzle game series that pretty much is the face of mobile games

Apologies, but you're getting Dragon Quest mixed up with Yakuza, which IIRC is now referred to globally as Like a Dragon.
Also just because a character's series is uber popular doesn't mean they immediately deserve a character, that's not the end all be all, otherwise I could say that Bayonetta shouldn't have gotten in before Dante or Kratos because the latter two's games are more known and popular.
Practicality and proximity are just as important as popularity. It'd be much harder to animate a Tetris Block as a fighter when it'd be easier and probably more successful just to make a standalone Tetris stage, for example.
Candy Crush and mobile games in general have little overlap with most other video game circles, and demand for most of them is pretty nonexistent as well. Even with Angry Birds, most people dismissed the series since the series and Rovio as a whole kind of left the public bubble after the first movie, only now are people really talking about it again because the original game has become old enough to reminisce about and because of Sega's purchase. And I feel like Arle and Red are in completely different lanes when it comes to the audiences their inclusions would appeal to.

Let's compromise, people!
I like the idea of a Puyo Puyo stage without a playable character, but what if in the western release, it changes to Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine? In both regions is Sonic's home stage. (Somewhat a reverse case of R.O.B.)

I don't mean to come off as a stick in the mud and I know you're probably joking a bit with this idea, but the last thing Puyo needs now as a brand is for its identity to flip-flop across regions again.

 

[Speed Weed]

Puyo Puyo reverting to being reskinned as Mean Bean Machine would be legitimately insulting lmao

That's another thing too, people have this obsession with forcing the series back into whatever it used to be called in the West, which would not only be branding suicide for the series, but would basically feel like a middle finger to Puyo fans. Let Puyo be Puyo dammit

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Puyo Puyo reverting to being reskinned as Mean Bean Machine would be legitimately insulting lmao

That is absolutely true.

It should clearly revert to Kirby's Avalanche if you have the English settings on.

 

[smashkirby]

For Alph, I’d just have him use a single Rock Pikmin that weighs the same as three Pikmin for Olimar and give Alph some of Olimar’s custom moves from Sm4sh. Really, I think giving Echoes some of the custom moves of their parent fighters was a missed opportunity.

As someone who customized the heck out of Alph and the Koopalings for Smash 3DS' Smash Run (I mostly made them either slow or fast (with a combo of different custom specials), I see where you're coming from here.

What's more, I'd maybe do stuff like make Pikachu Libre slightly slower, but give her some of Pikachu's harder-hitting custom specials (like Thunder Wave) and a new FS in the form of Thunder Press from Pokken Tournament.

I don't think I can even begin to describe the different spells Female Robin could use or the other tools for Female Villager.

 

[Guynamednelson]

That is absolutely true.

It should clearly revert to Kirby's Avalanche if you have the English settings on.

Compile: We should reskin this game because it looks too cutesy for Americans

Also Compile: Hey American kids, wanna play this new Kirby game?

 

[Pacack]

I definitely buy the idea of Puyo Puyo being the second most likely SEGA franchise to get a playable character. The series has been consistently active and sells well, and Arle makes perfect sense as a fighter.

But...let's be totally honest here. The Sonic franchise and its widely recognizable characters are such veritable cultural behemoths that it would be completely unsurprising to see both Tails and Eggman (or Shadow or Knuckles or Amy) joining the roster before Arle. Especially since a second Sonic character would be a good excuse to modernize the Sonic series' representation in Smash in a way that makes the fanbase happier than Sonic alone. (ala Sephiroth for Final Fantasy.)

I like Puyo Puyo (and NiGHTS and Samba de Amigo and Space Channel Five and Streets of Rage and...), but there's no denying that the Sonic series completely eclipses the other SEGA properties in the popular consciousness. My roommate's seven year old little brother loves Minecraft and Sonic more than anything. Like, every generation loves Sonic.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Compile: We should reskin this game because it looks too cutesy for Americans

Also Compile: Hey American kids, wanna play this new Kirby game?

That was an amusing trend around that time.

"We can't have these little girly princess titles for our male Western fans."

reskins Puyo Puyo and Panel de Pon as Kirby and Yoshi spin-offs respectively with all cute characters from both

"There we go, now these are men's games."

 

[RodNutTakin]

I guess something I also wanted to add, giving Puyo only a stage would honestly defeat the whole point of having the series in Smash. Puyo's main selling point (and the main aspect that many, many copycats and competing games from other companies have featured as well) is it being a puzzle game that focuses on a cast of characters as an integral part of its presentation, and by the time the series hit entry number 3, they put a great deal of focus on cast interactions, not unlike the various fighting games that were popular around the same time as Puyo's arcade heydays in the mid-90s and early 2000s.
If Puyo is going to be in Smash, the representation is going to put the characters before any stage concepts.
If anything, Tetris is the opposite case where a stage would make infinitely more sense than a fighter.

Also bringing up Kirby's Avalanche is actually a good point in the case for Puyo in Smash, if you ask me. Sure, it isn't a "true" crossover between a third-party game and one of Nintendo's own IPs, but I feel like Puyo being important enough to Nintendo to warrant the Kirby reskin at one point does say something about the series, and it does give Puyo a decent connection to Nintendo audiences even before PPT's localization. Avalanche being on the Wii Virtual Console was how I even discovered and got into Puyo Puyo as a series, in fact.
Of course, it also helps that Puyo is one of the few franchises to have a near-perfect attendance when it comes to Nintendo's systems, there's at least one game for every Nintendo system between the Famicom and the Switch minus the Virtual Boy (which is neglegible since that means Bomberman's the only third-party character with some sort of appearance on absolutely every Nintendo system). Though that's another can of worms to delve into.

I definitely buy the idea of Puyo Puyo being the second most likely SEGA franchise to get a playable character. The series has been consistently active and sells well, and Arle makes perfect sense as a fighter.

But...let's be totally honest here. The Sonic franchise and its widely recognizable characters are such veritable cultural behemoths that it would be completely unsurprising to see both Tails and Eggman (or Shadow or Knuckles or Amy) joining the roster before Arle. Especially since a second Sonic character would be a good excuse to modernize the Sonic series' representation in Smash in a way that makes the fanbase happier than Sonic alone. (ala Sephiroth for Final Fantasy.)

I like Puyo Puyo (and NiGHTS and Samba de Amigo and Space Channel Five and Streets of Rage and...), but there's no denying that the Sonic series completely eclipses the other SEGA properties in the popular consciousness. My roommate's seven year old little brother loves Minecraft and Sonic more than anything. Like, every generation loves Sonic.

One thing to keep in mind is that most of Sonic's popularity is actually slanted towards the West. Besides Puyo Puyo, a lot of Sega's arcade outings (such as their vast amount of driving/racing games) are more familiar to Japanese gamers than Sonic, and it doesn't help that the Saturn, which notoriously lacked a mainline Sonic game, was the most popular of Sega's systems over there. Not that Sonic is completely non-existent with Japanese audiences, far from it, but I'd argue it isn't Minecraft-tier.
I'm not really certain about getting two Sonic characters in one game, since as I mentioned before, characters like Knuckles and Shadow were passed over for Ultimate, even though they'd work as Sonic semi-clones and are popular characters, and Sonic himself didn't get much growth in representation in general, either. I could definitely see Eggman or Shadow get in, but even then my hunch tells me that they'd have to be a base game inclusion instead of DLC. Though I also feel that Arle wouldn't be anything but DLC material, so I feel there's ample room to do both without snubbing one over the other here.

 

[Wonder Smash]

My SEGA knowledge is admittedly a bit limited having never owned a console beyond the Dreamcast I bought for $30 after it was already said. That said, here’s the five I’d be personally most excited to see:

Knuckles (Sonic)
Mitsuru Kirijo (Persona 3)
Estelle Aguiarre (Streets of Rage 4)
Vectorman (Vectorman)
Nahobino (Shin Megami Tensei 5)

Not saying any of these are particularly likely, just that I’d be happy to see them get in.

That's kind of like me. The only SEGA consoles I own was also the Dreamcast and the...Mini Genesis. lol So my knowledge on SEGA is a bit limited too.

Overall, when it comes to SEGA reps in Smash, the only one I'd be interested in the most is a SMT rep.

Outside of that, I just often wonder what if SEGA make their own crossover fighting game series? Just like how Nintendo does in Smash Bros., it'd be good way to experience their both their older and newer series in different way, yet much more new way that many fans can enjoy. I think it'd be great way to see SEGA's answers to Nintendo's Donkey Kong, Zelda, or Punch-Out!! in some way.

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

It's the same line of thinking I have for why I think the Parodius octopi family are also a dark horse. The Japanese really love Konami's shooting games.

come to think of it i never really gave this idea much thought before because i was of the thought that they'd go with like, a moai or maybe twinbee, but come to think of it the octopi would be a pretty fun and honestly not too unreasonable choice and it'd be really neat to see them as alts of each other if possible

 

[Pacack]

One thing to keep in mind is that most of Sonic's popularity is actually slanted towards the West. Besides Puyo Puyo, a lot of Sega's arcade outings (such as their vast amount of driving/racing games) are more familiar to Japanese gamers than Sonic, and it doesn't help that the Saturn, which notoriously lacked a mainline Sonic game, was the most popular of Sega's systems over there. Not that Sonic is completely non-existent with Japanese audiences, far from it, but I'd argue it isn't Minecraft-tier.
I'm not really certain about getting two Sonic characters in one game, since as I mentioned before, characters like Knuckles and Shadow were passed over for Ultimate, even though they'd work as Sonic semi-clones and are popular characters, and Sonic himself didn't get much growth in representation in general, either. I could definitely see Eggman or Shadow get in, but even then my hunch tells me that they'd have to be a base game inclusion instead of DLC. Though I also feel that Arle wouldn't be anything but DLC material, so I feel there's ample room to do both without snubbing one over the other here.

Even without being Minecraft tier, Sonic as a series is more popular than the next post popular series by a factor of at least 2:1 in Japan also.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I'm not really certain about getting two Sonic characters in one game, since as I mentioned before, characters like Knuckles and Shadow were passed over for Ultimate, even though they'd work as Sonic semi-clones and are popular characters, and Sonic himself didn't get much growth in representation in general, either. I could definitely see Eggman or Shadow get in, but even then my hunch tells me that they'd have to be a base game inclusion instead of DLC. Though I also feel that Arle wouldn't be anything but DLC material, so I feel there's ample room to do both without snubbing one over the other here.

This is partially a joke, but Sonic's representation in smash feel borderline passive aggresive.

Remember Sonic disrupted the development of smash a little bit one of the few smash characters that werent in the planned roster of newcomers initially. And since then his representation in comparison to other third parties feels extremely lack luster.

They didnt even bother with new voice lines when Sonic got a new voice actor they just recycled from Generations.

As for puyo puyo i still feel like the Puyo's would work really well as an assist trophy, which is apparently a controversial take for some characters.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Look...

All I'm saying...

Is that Valkyria Chronicles is the superior choice.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Compile: We should reskin this game because it looks too cutesy for Americans

Also Compile: Hey American kids, wanna play this new Kirby game?

Wasn't that game the reason why Kirby babbles. I know the game never made it into it's home country, but imagine how horrified Sakurai was after watching Kirby acting out of character. This is why the game was never received an acknowledgement in Japan. (It hadn't a Virtual Console release there, considering that Game & Watch Gallery 4 never released there, and it got one)

 

[Pacack]

Even without being Minecraft tier, Sonic as a series is more popular than the next post popular series by a factor of at least 2:1 in Japan also.

I should note that I half take this back, but only if Vocaloid counts as a video game series.

 

[Nekoo]

Look...

All I'm saying...

Is that Valkyrie Chronicles is the superior choice.

The worst part is that I can see it happening.
SEGA love Selvaria. And shove her anywhere they can

 

[CapitaineCrash]

All those Sega talks and as always, people sleep on the possibility of a Phantasy star rep. Seriously, no hate on Axel, but it's baffling to see how he's so often brought up on the same level of Arle and Yakuza, but tbh if we're going with a more classic Sega rep there's no way they add Streets of rage before Phantasy star.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Look...

All I'm saying...

Is that Valkyrie Chronicles is the superior choice.

I REALLY wish they would remaster the second and third games for Switch.

Only having 1 and 4 on there annoys me.

All those Sega talks and as always, people sleep on the possibility of a Phantasy star rep. Seriously, no hate on Axel, but it's baffling to see how he's so often brought up on the same level of Arle and Yakuza, but tbh if we're going with a more classic Sega rep there's no way they add Streets of rage before Phantasy star.

Well it would be the first MMO rep in smash.

 

[Schnee117]

All those Sega talks and as always, people sleep on the possibility of a Phantasy star rep. Seriously, no hate on Axel, but it's baffling to see how he's so often brought up on the same level of Arle and Yakuza, but tbh if we're going with a more classic Sega rep there's no way they add Streets of rage before Phantasy star.

Phantasy Star is on the Switch even, and it's currently on sale for insanely cheap.
None of y'all got an excuse.

 

[Pacack]

All those Sega talks and as always, people sleep on the possibility of a Phantasy star rep. Seriously, no hate on Axel, but it's baffling to see how he's so often brought up on the same level of Arle and Yakuza, but tbh if we're going with a more classic Sega rep there's no way they add Streets of rage before Phantasy star.

I think what's hard there is that there isn't a super obvious character choice from Phantasy Star. Who would they pick?

 

[Perkilator]

Sakura Shinguji would also be a pretty neat (if a little niche) sleeper pick to represent both visual novels and tactical RPG’s (probably by also bringing in the LIPS system).

 

[Swamp Sensei]

The worst part is that I can see it happening.
SEGA love Selvaria. And shove her anywhere they can

Worst part?

 

[Speed Weed]

I think what's hard there is that there isn't a super obvious character choice from Phantasy Star. Who would they pick?

From the classic games you have Alis as the "Marth" so to speak, plus Nei as a major fan favorite whose presence and influence is still felt in later games. You could also add Rika, who's basically Nei's successor.

From Online you could add the avatars Ash and Sue, but there are also characters such as Matoi, Rico and Elenor who are quite popular

 

[Nekoo]

Worst part?

No funny dame dame guy if it happens.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

This is all going to be really awkward when we somehow end up with Alex Kidd as the next Sega rep, complete with a slightly confusing Jankenpon mechanic for special attacks.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

No funny dame dame guy if it happens.

What if... Funny dame dame guy... AND big gun lance thing girl?

 

[Pacack]

From the classic games you have Alis as the "Marth" so to speak, plus Nei as a major fan favorite whose presence and influence is still felt in later games. You could also add Rika, who's basically Nei's successor.

From Online you could add the avatars Ash and Sue, but there are also characters such as Matoi, Rico and Elenor who are quite popular

I would personally adore Alis, but surely Smash would opt for Ash and Sue, right?

 

[Speed Weed]

Smash will only be good when they add Arle, Akira, Harrier, Opa-Opa, Sakura, Kiryu, Alis, Mushiking, NiGHTS, Ulala, Ryo, Rikiya Busujima, Selvaria, Alex Kidd, Zylo, Blue Dragon, Temjin, Asha, Blaze Fielding, Gilius, Beat, Hotsuma, Pengo, Centurion, Amigo, Gunstar Red and/or Han Samuel, Vyse, Cenes Crawford, Bruno Delinger, Honey, Shou Amabane, the Princess class from 7th Dragon and Segata Sanshiro

 

[Pacack]

Okay, but actual serious controversial question:

Is Hatsune Miku eligible for Smash Bros.?

 

[Nekoo]

Smash will only be good when they add Arle, Akira, Harrier, Opa-Opa, Sakura, Kiryu, Alis, Mushiking, NiGHTS, Ulala, Ryo, Rikiya Busujima, Selvaria, Alex Kidd, Zylo, Blue Dragon, Temjin, Asha, Blaze Fielding, Gilius, Beat, Hotsuma, Pengo, Centurion, Amigo, Gunstar Red and/or Han Samuel, Vyse, Cenes Crawford, Bruno Delinger, Honey, Shou Amabane, the Princess class from 7th Dragon and Segata Sanshiro

Almost.

You forgot Hatsune Miku

 

[SPEN18]

Here are some rumors about the next Nintendo Direct being next week.

Ignore the Zippo parts as usual.

Pretty standard fare, rumors-wise.

My main hope for this Direct (per usual) is for some Switch-absent franchises to maybe get something before the Switch goes out. Like Star Fox, Kid Icarus, Golden Sun, DK...the hope for these on Switch is getting smaller and smaller with each passing Direct but we know little enough about the plan for the next year that maybe we could get something.

 

[Perkilator]

The worst part is that I can see it happening.
SEGA love Selvaria. And shove her anywhere they can

Speaking of, did you guys know Selvaria appeared in Project X Zone as boss, but no Valkyria Chronicles characters appeared in PxZ2? I was thinking Selvaria should’ve been a Solo Unit in PxZ2 who joins you after initially fighting her as a boss.

 

[Nekoo]

Okay, but actual serious controversial question:

Is Hatsune Miku eligible for Smash Bros.?

On a technicality? Yes. Yes she is. She has her own Licence and pletora of games, who used a digital software and her own music...
So...TECHNICALLY...yeah