Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Gengar84]

Yeah, I think Doom Slayer’s best argument is that DOOM really helped popularize first person shooters along with Wolfenstein. For some obvious reasons regarding Wolfenstein’s subject matter and the fact that Doom Slayer has a more unique aesthetic and fantasy weaponry, I think Doom Slayer makes more sense for Smash than BJ Blazkowics.

During the N64 era, GoldenEye 007 and Perfect Dark had another huge impact on the genre popularizing console multiplayer which helped influence games like Halo. If you’re looking for a good representation for the FPS genre, you can’t get any better than Doom Slayer or Master Chief for general popularity or Joanna Dark for Nintendo specifically.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I read the whole thing, I'm pointing out where you're making silly reaches.

So in other words, I mentioned the Nintendo connection and, as usual, you took that personal? Okay...lol

But you didn't read the whole thing, so stop lying.

Watch out guys, we got a badass keyboard warrior over here

Hey, you don't start anything, it won't be anything.

Yeah, I think Doom Slayer’s best argument is that DOOM really helped popularize first person shooters along with Wolfenstein. For some obvious reasons regarding Wolfenstein’s subject matter and the fact that Doom Slayer has a more unique aesthetic and fantasy weaponry, I think Doom Slayer makes more sense for Smash than BJ Blazkowics.

During the N64 era, GoldenEye 007 and Perfect Dark had another huge impact on the genre popularizing console multiplayer which helped influence games like Halo. If you’re looking for a good representation for the FPS genre, you can’t get any better than Doom Slayer or Master Chief for general popularity or Joanna Dark for Nintendo specifically.

That's why I mentioned Sakurai twice bringing up how DOOM is the father of FPS. He knows how it popularized the genre, as everybody does.

But as this was about DOOM, there's gotta be more things specifically to it that makes it stand out from the others and just like the way people like to bring up how Kingdom Hearts was created because of Mario, bringing how DOOM was also created because of Mario is worth bringing up too.

 

[Ivander]

Again, mostly due to personal bias but we don’t really have a hunter/huntress character in Smash that can call animal companions so she’d be really unique.

I mean, she technically is a hunter even if vampire hunters in Castlevania are more a term than a class.

 

[Gengar84]

Just a fun little thing to mention that I saw the other day. One of the creators of Magic: The Gathering (Mark Rosewater) runs a blog where fans ask him questions and he answers them. One of the fans brought up that one of the Planeswalkers was created in a video game and was eligible for Smash and he agreed and mentioned that Magic has several characters created in video games. That almost definitely doesn’t mean anything but I thought it was fun to bring up.

 

[smashkirby]

Honestly with the "casual gamer" boom and all, this era is actually pretty deep in highly unique first party franchises if they wanted to get really funky with a pick. There's like Brain Age, Big Brain Academy, Nintendogs, Style Savvy (RIP), Art Academy, Rhythm Heaven (for the West) all originating here. These all actually got games at least as recently as the 3DS/WiiU era but IMO they're all fairly heavily associated with the DS/Wii era. And of course we already have Wii Fit coming from this sort of vein but they could easily go back to the well if they wanted.

If there's something I have to give Smash 4 credit on, it's the fact that even characters who you'd probably NEVER expect to appear in a fighting game actually have a chance now. Seriously, it's a bit nuts to me how series like Rhythm Heaven and Style Savvy (Still hope this series gets an ACTUAL new game in its series, what with Fashion Dreamer suddenly being a thing) may actually have a chance at getting a playable fighter in Smash Bros..

I mean, Sakurai's gone on record stating that Villager wasn't playable in Brawl for this very reason, and look at where the character is now. Same goes for WFT and Duck Hunt.

Do you think Toad, Waluigi, Geno, Dixie Kong, and Bandana Dee are all that’s missing to have really complete representation of their respective series? We can always get others like Cranky Kong, Wart, or basic enemies but I’m curious if the support for these series would keep up if we got all of these.

Ngl, I STILL get this feeling of 'absence' when I think about Bandana Waddle Dee and Dixie Kong whenever I look at Smash Ultimate's roster.

 

[Schnee117]

Yeah, I think Doom Slayer’s best argument is that DOOM really helped popularize first person shooters along with Wolfenstein. For some obvious reasons regarding Wolfenstein’s subject matter and the fact that Doom Slayer has a more unique aesthetic and fantasy weaponry, I think Doom Slayer makes more sense for Smash than BJ Blazkowics.

During the N64 era, GoldenEye 007 and Perfect Dark had another huge impact on the genre popularizing console multiplayer which helped influence games like Halo. If you’re looking for a good representation for the FPS genre, you can’t get any better than Doom Slayer or Master Chief for general popularity or Joanna Dark for Nintendo specifically.

BJ feels best suited for a mii costume based on his New Colossus look tbh. Maybe toss in a music track with it.
He's worth having, it's just a shame you can't really do a whole lot with him or his franchise because he has a ton of cool stuff like dual wielding shotguns and all the fun things you can do with a hatchet.

 

[Soy_Man]

So in other words, I mentioned the Nintendo connection and, as usual, you took that personal? Okay...lol

Dude, can you just tell us how Doom's switch port having different boxart, has like any significance to Doom Slayer's chances of being in the next Smash game? I am not impressed with your epic owns.

 

[Gengar84]

Hey, no reason to go after anyone personally. Even if the box art thing is irrelevant, there was no harm in mentioning it like Wonder Smash did.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Dude, can you just tell us how Doom's switch port having different boxart, has like any significance to Doom Slayer's chances of being in the next Smash game? I am not impressed with your epic owns.

I don't recall trying impress you in the first place.

 

[Schnee117]

Hey, no reason to go after anyone personally. Even if the box art thing is irrelevant, there was no harm in mentioning it like Wonder Smash did.

Nah arguing that point for any character, let alone a character who doesn't even need silly reaches, just reeks of insecurity
The fact it also isn't even true in this instance makes it stupid.

 

[SPEN18]

Let's keep it cool, here, on both sides.

 

[Gengar84]

Nah arguing that point for any character, let alone a character who doesn't even need silly reaches, just reeks of insecurity
The fact it also isn't even true in this instance makes it stupid.

If that was his only point then you could be right but I saw it as just an extra piece of trivia. If he’s wrong, then it would be better to just point that out instead of throwing insults.

 

[Schnee117]

If that was his only point then you could be right but I saw it as just an extra piece of trivia. If he’s wrong, then it would be better to just point that out instead of throwing insults.

It's not extra trivia when it's posited as a part of "Wow they get along well with Nintendo"

 

[Soy_Man]

Hey, no reason to go after anyone personally. Even if the box art thing is irrelevant, there was no harm in mentioning it like Wonder Smash did.

??? I'm just asking him to explain his point.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Nah arguing that point for any character, let alone a character who doesn't even need silly reaches, just reeks of insecurity
The fact it also isn't even true in this instance makes it stupid.

You know, just going "nah ah, not true" and "that's stupid" and blah blah, isn't really an argument. It's just pointless yapping.

??? I'm just asking him to explain his point.

You should have done that in a better way, then.

It's not extra trivia when it's posited as a part of "Wow they get along well with Nintendo"

That's extra trivia.

 

[SPEN18]

If there's something I have to give Smash 4 credit on, it's the fact that even characters who you'd probably NEVER expect to appear in a fighting game actually have a chance now. Seriously, it's a bit nuts to me how series like Rhythm Heaven and Style Savvy (Still hope this series gets an ACTUAL new game in its series, what with Fashion Dreamer suddenly being a thing) may actually have a chance at getting a playable fighter in Smash Bros..

I mean, Sakurai's gone on record stating that Villager wasn't playable in Brawl for this very reason, and look at where the character is now. Same goes for WFT and Duck Hunt.

Yeah the "not a fighter" thing was one of the worst reasonings we've seen for excluding a character IMO. Glad it's (at least mostly) gone.

 

[Gengar84]

Yeah the "not a fighter" thing was one of the worst reasonings we've seen for excluding a character IMO. Glad it's (at least mostly) gone.

On the flip side though, a character that has a moveset that can easily be translated to Smash is still a plus in my opinion. I agree though that not having it shouldn’t disqualify a character. That was pretty much already confirmed in Smash 64 with Fox and Captain Falcon.

 

[Schnee117]

You know, just going "nah ah, not true" and "that's stupid" and blah blah, isn't really an argument. It's just pointless yapping.

Your lack of self-awareness is hilarious. You haven't even shared this so-called Switch only Doom boxart.

But I might as well do it for you because you seem to be incapable of doing so

Switch:

Reversible cover on the Xbox and PS version of the game:

Cropping the art, squishing the logo and adding a switch logo does not make it unique.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Just a fun little thing to mention that I saw the other day. One of the creators of Magic: The Gathering (Mark Rosewater) runs a blog where fans ask him questions and he answers them. One of the fans brought up that one of the Planeswalkers was created in a video game and was eligible for Smash and he agreed and mentioned that Magic has several characters created in video games. That almost definitely doesn’t mean anything but I thought it was fun to bring up.

This is an "Android 21 Situation" where the character from a I IP crested outside is created for a specific video game. In some rare cases they become canon (Using a Non-video game example: Harley Quinn was created for the Batman cartoon but was later incorporated into the comics). I'm one of those people that wants them, just to represent licensed games, and is a surprise that I'm not alone.

 

[DarthEnderX]

And how many echo fighters?

shrug I dunno man. Like...5?

Why would another Mario be the important rep and not a character that actually originates from the sub-series. This doesn't mean just Geno either.

Geno is all well and good. But he's no Admiral Bobbery.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Your lack of self-awareness is hilarious. You haven't even shared this so-called Switch only Doom boxart.

If you know about the boxart, then why would I need to share it? Besides, it's not like you asked anyway.

But I might as well do it for you because you seem to be incapable of doing so

Switch:
View attachment 375587

Reversible cover on the Xbox and PS version of the game:

Cropping the art, squishing the logo and adding a switch logo does not make it unique.

Good thing I never said exclusive Switch art, huh? I thought you said you read it. lol

I said this was an exclusive cover for the Switch version, not exclusive art. This was even referenced in the Doom Slayer Mii costume reveal video for Smash Ultimate.

 

[fogbadge]

Geno is all well and good. But he's no Admiral Bobbery.

that is so true

 

[Soy_Man]

Good thing I never said exclusive Switch art, huh? I thought you said you read it. lol

I said this was an exclusive cover for the Switch version, not exclusive art. This was even referenced in the Doom Slayer Mii costume reveal video for Smash Ultimate.

A reversible cover is still a cover. There's no shame in being wrong about something this small.

And even if it was new art, made specifically for the switch port, is that really an indication that Nintendo and Id or Bethesda have some special relationship?

 

[Wonder Smash]

A reversible cover is still a cover. There's no shame in being wrong about something this small.

And even if it was new art, made specifically for the switch port, is that really an indication that Nintendo and Id or Bethesda have some special relationship?

But it was made a cover art for the Switch version, which is what I'm saying.

Also there's no shame in you and Schnee117 in changing the way you come off towards people.

And I would say it could highlight the possible relationship between Nintendo and id Software.

 

[Soy_Man]

But it was made as a cover art for the Switch version, which is what I'm saying.

You said, and I quote:

this was an exclusive cover for the Switch version

Which is evidently not true, as it's the same exact artwork used for the original console releases. Again, a reversible cover is still a cover.

Also there's no shame in you and Schnee117 Schnee117 in changing the way you come off towards people.

You yourself come off as needlessly antagonistic, when you respond to people who think you're reaching, by saying stuff like "Don't mess with me", instead of simply justifying why your points aren't reaches. Which is why I wasn't particularly gentle towards you.

And I would say it could highlight the possible relationship between Nintendo and id Software.

Why would it be an indication that Nintendo and Id software are like buddy-buddy or something, if the Doom switch port, switched the places of the reversible covers. I don't get it.

 

[Wonder Smash]

You said, and I quote:

Which is evidently not true, as it's the same exact artwork used for the original console releases. Again, a reversible cover is still a cover.

Except it's not because as you just said, it's reversible, so it's not THE cover art for the other consoles like they are for the Switch, which is what I'm saying.

You yourself come off as needlessly antagonistic, when you respond to people who think you're reaching, by saying stuff like "Don't mess with me", instead of simply justifying why your points aren't reaches. Which is why I wasn't particularly gentle towards you.

As if calling me a "massive Doom Slayer fanboy" was not needlessly antagonistic. Don't make excuses. And I did say more than what was pointed out, so there was no need for the responses in the first place. They just wanted to argue. Simple as that.

Why would it be an indication that Nintendo and Id software are like buddy-buddy or something, if the Doom switch port, switched the places of the reversible covers. I don't get it.

You said even if it was new art. Now what is this?

 

[Geno Boost]

Why the opinion of a random person should be important if the fan-favorite status is the determining criterion?

for that part i was just stating where the whole factor of "popularity, iconic and recognizability stuff" comes from its that he is Mario

 

[Nabbitfan730]

Lord, please don't tell me you guys are arguing box art choices and Nintendo connection. Just reaching to petty territory.

Anyways when Smash 6 comes around with EiH mostly gone, in terms of veterans as a foundations for this reboot, i would mind the game starting from scratch from Brawl's roster and just started building from there. Add some veterans from 4/Ult and newcomers never seen before.

Brawl's roster works great for foundation especially when comes variety in First Party. You got the old and relevant and even decent portion of the obscure side in terms of veterans. Wish i could this explain this better but i feel Brawl has the best representation of the Nintendo-All Stars lineup even to this day so starting there would be a good idea.

 

[Wonder Smash]

It's a shame how you guys are fussing over small things like a box art. My gosh! It wasn't to argue Doom Slayer's chances. It was just little trivia to point out what made Doom on the Switch stand out and I thought it was worth pointing since it was also referenced in his Mii costume reveal trailer.

So stop saying that I'm "reaching". That ends right here.

 

[Gengar84]

It’s funny how some people here get upset about the dumbest things. I guess you don’t really need much of a reason to argue.

Anyway, I was watching MaxamillianDood’s reaction to Project L (the League of Legends fighting game) and it looks pretty interesting. It’s using a tag team based battle system but each player can control a different character. That way you can do two players Vs two players or two players Vs one player controlling two characters. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a traditional fighter that can have up to four players in one match.

Duos in Project L looks INSANE

Check out our Livestream! http://twitch.tv/maximilian_doodOur official merch collection! ►►► https://maxdood.tv/merchFollow Me on Twitter! http://www.twitter...

m.youtube.com

That got me thinking about how a League character could work in Smash. Both the mainline LoL game and the new fighting game heavily rely on team based combat so I wonder if that could suggest a two character team like Pyra/Mythra. Project L has a lot of fun looking team based combos that can be activated when switching between characters. That could be a fun twist on the typical transform mechanic in Smash. Rather than the down special simply switching characters, you could work the mechanic into an attack that switches when activated. I’m not completely familiar with everything in LoL lore but two options I thought of that could work are Ahri and Yasuo or Vi and Caitlyn. Vi and Jinx have a lot of history and we’re partners at one point but they’ve become enemies since so it might be a bit of a stretch to pair them but they’d work well together mechanically.

A pairing isn’t completely necessary and any of the champions could work well on their own but given the series focus on teamwork, I think a duo character could be a fun idea.

 

[Speed Weed]

It’s funny how some people here get upset about the dumbest things. I guess you don’t really need much of a reason to argue.

Anyway, I was watching MaxamillianDood’s reaction to Project L (the League of Legends fighting game) and it looks pretty interesting. It’s using a tag team based battle system but each player can control a different character. That way you can do two players Vs two players or two players Vs one player controlling two characters. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a traditional fighter that can have up to four players in one match.

Duos in Project L looks INSANE

Check out our Livestream! http://twitch.tv/maximilian_doodOur official merch collection! ►►► https://maxdood.tv/merchFollow Me on Twitter! http://www.twitter...

m.youtube.com

That got me thinking about how a League character could work in Smash. Both the mainline LoL game and the new fighting game heavily rely on team based combat so I wonder if that could suggest a two character team like Pyra/Mythra. Project L has a lot of fun looking team based combos that can be activated when switching between characters. That could be a fun twist on the typical transform mechanic in Smash. Rather than the down special simply switching characters, you could work the mechanic into an attack that switches when activated. I’m not completely familiar with everything in LoL lore but two options I thought of that could work are Ahri and Yasuo or Vi and Caitlyn. Vi and Jinx have a lot of history and we’re partners at one point but they’ve become enemies since so it might be a bit of a stretch to pair them but they’d work well together mechanically.

A pairing isn’t completely necessary and any of the champions could work well on their own but given the series focus on teamwork, I think a duo character could be a fun idea.

I am a total League noob so take what I say with a grain of salt but my outsider opinion is that I think the concept of an LoL tag character would work best if the two characters had strong in-story connections (and thus a reason to fight together) rather than just smashing two popular chars together which I feel would veer off a bit too much into Two Flickies territory

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Lord, please don't tell me you guys are arguing box art choices and Nintendo connection. Just reaching to petty territory.

Anyways when Smash 6 comes around with EiH mostly gone, in terms of veterans as a foundations for this reboot, i would mind the game starting from scratch from Brawl's roster and just started building from there. Add some veterans from 4/Ult and newcomers never seen before.

Brawl's roster works great for foundation especially when comes variety in First Party. You got the old and relevant and even decent portion of the obscure side in terms of veterans. Wish i could this explain this better but i feel Brawl has the best representation of the Nintendo-All Stars lineup even to this day so starting there would be a good idea.

View attachment 375593

I agree, Brawl's selection of first party newcomers was the last time in this series where i felt this was a gathering of Nintendo's biggest names.

After that point in smash 4 and Ultimate the Nintendo characters we got felt kinda... lower key? Not sure how else to put it, the first three Smash games felt like they were filling out the roster with the "Mainstay" nintendo icons but by the time 4 and Ultimate roll around it feels like were running low on those.

 

[Gengar84]

I am a total League noob so take what I say with a grain of salt but my outsider opinion is that I think the concept of an LoL tag character would work best if the two characters had strong in-story connections (and thus a reason to fight together) rather than just smashing two popular chars together which I feel would veer off a bit too much into Two Flickies territory

Yeah, the first two pairings I mentioned (Ahri/Yasuo and Vi/Caitlyn) actively work together as a team in the lore. Vi/Jinx started out as a team as kids but there were some events that caused a falling out between the two and they are currently enemies. I don’t know what happens to the two after the events of the first Arcane season of if they ever become friends again so that’s why it’s potentially a stretch to have them team in Smash. The two did appear as guests in Fortnite so there is a history of both showing up when either one does.

 

[SPEN18]

On the flip side though, a character that has a moveset that can easily be translated to Smash is still a plus in my opinion. I agree though that not having it shouldn’t disqualify a character. That was pretty much already confirmed in Smash 64 with Fox and Captain Falcon.

True that we got Fox/Falcon all the way back in 64 and both were from sources not involving on-foot combat in gameplay (though Fox had aerial combat while Falcon was a bounty hunter who was clearly implied to be capable of combat).

But regardless of that precedent, Sakurai specifically cited the "not a fighter" argument as a reason for eliminating Villager (and Nintendog) from consideration in Brawl. So that "rule" was still keeping some characters out, even if it was apparently not deemed applicable to Star Fox or F-Zero characters.

It's not simply a matter of having to make up moves to get the character to work, but rather the question of whether certain characters are inherently not suited to fighting, i.e. would have to stray too far out-of-character or out-of-canon in order to be made to fight. I would guess that we both agree that made-up moves can still be both in-character and consistent with canon.
But that's the difference between Fox/Falcon and the characters like Villager or Wii Fit Trainer that we were discussing.

Edit: as was corrected below, Fox did have on-foot combat in 64's multiplayer

 

[Gengar84]

True that we got Fox/Falcon all the way back in 64 and both were from sources not involving on-foot combat in gameplay (though Fox had aerial combat while Falcon was a bounty hunter who was clearly implied to be capable of combat).

But regardless of that precedent, Sakurai specifically cited the "not a fighter" argument as a reason for eliminating Villager (and Nintendog) from consideration in Brawl. So that "rule" was still keeping some characters out, even if it was apparently not deemed applicable to Star Fox or F-Zero characters.

It's not simply a matter of having to make up moves to get the character to work, but rather the question of whether certain characters are inherently not suited to fighting, i.e. would have to stray too far out-of-character or out-of-canon in order to be made to fight. I would guess that we both agree that made-up moves can still be both in-character and consistent with canon.
But that's the difference between Fox/Falcon and the characters like Villager or Wii Fit Trainer that we were discussing.

Yeah, they made Villager and Wii Fit Trainer work so I’m sure Sakurai could do that for just about anyone with enough creativity. Marvel Vs. Capcom did the same with Phoenix Wright.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

The only issue i can think of with Phoenix is giving him a recovery, i cant think of what he would do with an Up+B.

Everything else is basically covered with his appearances in MVC and Project X Zone where they have him collecting evidence, have Maya back him up while he collects evidence, summon the Steel Samurai, use "Psycho locks" and use his super move from MVC as his final smash.

 

[Perkilator]

The only issue i can think of with Phoenix is giving him a recovery, i cant think of what he would do with an Up+B.

Well, there’s always a trusty stepladder.

 

[dream1ng]

Why would another Mario be the important rep and not a character that actually originates from the sub-series. This doesn't mean just Geno either. Fawful and Vivian would count. We has Rosalina for the Galaxy games,

That Mario does originate from the sub-series, and is the protagonist of like half the games.

We have Rosalina because of the Galaxy games, not for the Galaxy games. The Galaxy games don't need a supporting character to represent them when they have the lead. Look at Odyssey. We didn't get Bowser Jr for Sunshine. We got them because of those games, and the others in which they appear.

Wario for the Wario, Yoshi for Yoshi etc

And yet you're questioning Paper Mario, and holding it against characters who don't originate from the sub-series, which neither of these characters did.

And if we going down the neccessary logic than the only character that is really important is just Mario or Mario and Luigi.

Not if the roster is to exceed Smash 64's volume.

Regardless, whether a series is compete really just depends on how you view it but i think when comes to bigger franchises, completion is lot harder to define.

I agree, which is why I didn't provide a list. But Geno is no more necessary than Mallow. And no one has ever said a roster without Mallow isn't complete.

I want a paper Mario rep but I don’t want it to be paper Mario simply because I don’t want 3 playable Mario’s in smash even as someone who did play paper Mario, characters such as Dimentio and Vivian are most exciting for me and I want to see more of them instead of paper version of the same Mario characters that we see every in every modern paper Mario game

I don't want Paper Mario either, I'd rather get Geno.

But who we want is a completely different argument than who is most important.

here is the thing go ask Paper Mario fans who is their favorite paper mario character i bet Paper Mario himself wouldn't even be in the top 5 if you make a poll for Paper Mario fans

Doesn't matter. In a Street Fighter poll, Ryu came ninth. He's still the face, he's still the lead, he's still going to resonate most widely, he's still the most important, he's still the one we got.

the difference is Pikachu and Mario are original therefore they are 1st to be included by default the argument doesnt work for Paper Mario because he is a different version of the same character that is already playable and the popularity, iconic and recognizability stuff are only because he is just copy of the original which is Mario himself

Let's be real if Geno didn't have the popularity he did (which is an exceptional situation), the Mario RPG inclusion would be Paper Mario or no one.

like if you show a pic for a cat mario, paper mario, dr. mario, mini mario and lego mario to any random person they will all say its Mario
so a fan favorite pick makes sense for paper mario representation

It's not actually a point in your favor to stress how recognizable Paper Mario would be to people.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Fox has onfoot segments in the multiplayer of Star Fox 64. The moveset is still made from scratch, though. Besides a technicality.

He also uses a type of firearm in said multiplayer so him wielding a gun onfoot isn’t odd at all. But that’s the only ability he has that was translateable to Smash. Laser is basically the Arwing Laser. Reflector is visibly a Silver Ring, but Fire Fox isn’t similar to another ability. Though Fox Illusion resembles the Boost. A lot in Star Fox 64 alone isn’t used. The Smart Bomb becoming an item was neat, though~

 

[dream1ng]

Doom's best argument is Doom is a big, popular series and Doom Slayer is a popular character.

Influence is not really that key. There's very little chance we'd get Doom Slayer without the series having been successfully revived. The character wouldn't be demanded (the Smash popularity only started after the series came back), and the series would be relegated to re-releases, the last notable title in the early 00s. However, it still would've been as influential as those initial days made it.

People overcomplicate arguments for third-parties. Almost always it boils down to "is character/series big/successful?" or "is character highly demanded?" if so, there's all the reasoning it likely takes, and all the reasoning it usually is.

It's just that those factors aren't exactly limited to only a few characters, hence third-parties being hard to predict.

Though "is character reasonably priced" may also be a factor for some (not all) of the third-parties, just one they'd never talk about.