Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Diddy Kong]

Persona 5 Royale or NieR Automa? I'm thinking about getting one of these games, since they're nicely priced. But not both of them. Which of the two is the pick of you guys here ?

 

[dream1ng]

One stance I've had for a while, even though it clearly isn't Nintendo's stance, is that first parties shouldn't be chosen based on fan demand; importance; or even moveset potential, but rather how much appeal they'd have to people unfamiliar with the franchise they're from. Look at how popular K. Rool - the evil pirate-king-scientist-boxer - was for months following Ultimate's launch; then compare it to the hype longevity of other big Nintendo-adjacent fan demands like Banjo - the duo primarily remembered for their text-based banter - and Ridley - the villain primarily remembered for his relationship with the protagonist.

You're asking them to throw away pre-definable metrics for guessing the post-release reception within an audience that didn't ask for them.

If your contention is that K. Rool had more appeal with people who didn't ask for him than Banjo or Ridley, how would you have predicted that prior to adding any of them? What is your formula, and how does it also highlight characters people seem to gravitate to, like Cloud, Kirby and Ganondorf, but not others? Especially disregarding fan demand, importance and moveset potential.

Because if you're prioritizing people unfamiliar with the franchise, that lends itself to the smallest franchises. And guess what, DK is not that small a franchise. It's certainly bigger than Banjo or Metroid. So if people who aren't familiar with a series are the priority, big series wouldn't be, as you'd have a smaller audience unfamiliar with them. Which also rules out Cloud, Kirby and Ganondorf.

Because otherwise, if you added a character like Waluigi, you would be lending more importance to the very small percent of the audience who doesn't know him than the vast majority who would. And that doesn't make sense, if appealing to the unfamiliar the only factor.

Also it shouldn't matter what Banjo or Ridley are remembered for if the goal is to appeal to people unfamiliar with them. Then it's bear-with-a-bird-in-his-backpack and evil-pirate-alien-space-dragon, both of which... are as interesting descriptors as K. Rool's. Frankly, I think an alien space dragon sounds cooler than a king scientist boxer.

 

[Wario Wario Wario]

You're asking them to throw away pre-definable metrics for guessing the post-release reception within an audience that didn't ask for them.

If your contention is that K. Rool had more appeal with people who didn't ask for him than Banjo or Ridley, how would you have predicted that prior to adding any of them? What is your formula, and how does it also highlight characters people seem to gravitate to, like Cloud, Kirby and Ganondorf, but not others? Especially disregarding fan demand, importance and moveset potential.

Because if you're prioritizing people unfamiliar with the franchise, that lends itself to the smallest franchises. And guess what, DK is not that small a franchise. It's certainly bigger than Banjo or Metroid. So if people who aren't familiar with a series are the priority, big series wouldn't be, as you'd have a smaller audience unfamiliar with them. Which also rules out Cloud, Kirby and Ganondorf.

Because otherwise, if you added a character like Waluigi, you would be lending more importance to the very small percent of the audience who doesn't know him than the vast majority who would. And that doesn't make sense, if appealing to the unfamiliar the only factor.

Also it shouldn't matter what Banjo or Ridley are remembered for if the goal is to appeal to people unfamiliar with them. Then it's bear-with-a-bird-in-his-backpack and evil-pirate-alien-space-dragon, both of which... are as interesting descriptors as K. Rool's. Frankly, I think an alien space dragon sounds cooler than a king scientist boxer.

Let me rephrase this a little: if a character is only really that well known to devoted or long-time Nintendo fans, having a striking design and a personality that is possible to communicate through attack animations (not dialog; trailers; victories or taunts mind you) is imperative. K. Rool, Ridley, and Banjo were honestly terrible choices to make this point now I think about it (Ridley and Banjo were probably forgotten quickly compared to Rool more for how their inclusion was executed than the actual character choices) - so instead, I'll point to the FE characters: they've got unique traits in their source material, but are so un-striking on a fundamental character design (with context of characters who came before) level that to non-fans they're indistinguishable, and would be even without their quantity. Or, if we're talking a hypothetical character, Bandana Dee: a character who has the bare minimum distinction from the species used as a base - which, as is, is rather close to the protag's design - and is primarily loved because of menu screens and a promotional song rather than how he's animated in the game action.

 

[fogbadge]

I said 80s-style.

those types of villains weren't exclusive to the 80s. in fact they predate then

Persona 5 Royale or NieR Automa? I'm thinking about getting one of these games, since they're nicely priced. But not both of them. Which of the two is the pick of you guys here ?

i'd say persona

 

[Geno Boost]

i am expecting next smash newcomers would be 50% nintendo reps and 50% 3rd party reps
in ultimate each 3rd party company got another newcomer (besides SNK and Disney since they joined late during DLC era) so i do expect that to happen again

i want to extend this to showcase something noticable regarding 3rd party reps patterns since brawl all the way to ultimate

	Konami	SEGA	Capcom	Namco	Square-Enix	Microsoft	SNK	Disney
Brawl
Sm4sh	Company is Absent
Ultimate
My prediction of final roster if every 3rd party company comes back in base game next smash game	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]

would this be more likely be the case with the 3rd party companies as they stay each smash installment they get extra character and it could regarded as way they could keep in close relationship

 

[Oracle Link]

BTW for everyone who doesnt get why people want Bandana Dee Here is a lore vid on him:

 

[SneakyLink]

Not necessarily related to a future Smash, but Sakurai talks about Melee:

Mayhaps this can be used to see how speculation can change?

 

[Lionfranky]

Persona 5 Royale or NieR Automa? I'm thinking about getting one of these games, since they're nicely priced. But not both of them. Which of the two is the pick of you guys here ?

As as person who played both, I recommend Persona 5 Royale first.

 

[Gengar84]

Persona 5 Royale or NieR Automa? I'm thinking about getting one of these games, since they're nicely priced. But not both of them. Which of the two is the pick of you guys here ?

I own both (just vanilla Persona 5, not Royal) and I personally prefer Persona of the two. Nier is fun too but for some reason I just have a harder time personally getting into it so I still haven’t played more than 10 hours while I put 100 in Persona. It probably just depends on your preferences. I’ve always enjoyed turn based combat which Persona provides but the action based combat of Nier is fun in its own way. Since I haven’t played Royal specifically, I can’t really speak on that version but I loved vanilla 5.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

So I recently beat Pokemon SV, and there's a lot of great new mon. I'd like to take this moment to talk about some gen 9 cannidates I think we should be keeping an eye on for future Smash.

Spoiler: Pokemon SV unrevealed mon

Meowscarada - out of all the three starters, this is probably the frontrunner. It's sleek, it has a lot of personality, and you can probably pull a lot with it's magician schtick. And hey, it's a standalone grass starter which people have long been asking for.

Quaquaval - maybe an odd choice, but much like how Incineroar was chosen due to the aspect of a wrestler character, I think Quaquaval could easily be chosen on the aspect of a dancer character. Meowscarada I'd still consider the starter frontrunner, but Quaquaval is a fairly close second

Tinkaton - Maybe another weird one, but from what I've been seeing, this seems to be one of the more popular new mon as of current. I think there's quite a bit to pull from here. We may already have a hammer character in Dedede , but Tinkaton's is so massive, it probably won't even feel the same at all.

Armorouge/Ceruledge - Two other big popular new mons, and we didn't even need to wait til release to see that. I feel like these two will be seen as a bit of thematic mascots of sorts for this gen. If they do get in, we'll probably only get only one of em, but I stuck em here together as not to repeat myself, lol

Baxcalibur - It's practically Godzilla: the mon, potentially even moreso than Tyranitar. Think you could make a fun moveset with this thing. And hey, we could always use more ice themed fighters.

SUPER LATE GAME MON SORTA RELATED TO THE STORY Scream Tail - I feel I need to bring this one up soley due to it's heavy connection with Jigglypuff and the slight possibility of it being a clone-ish character. Probably a little too distinct for that, but I think it was worth at least briefly humoring

There's probably more where that came from, but these are definitely the ones that first come to mind.

 

[fogbadge]

Not necessarily related to a future Smash, but Sakurai talks about Melee:

Mayhaps this can be used to see how speculation can change?

something about sakurai saying he's logical about making games logically sounds off to me

 

[HyperSomari64]

Not necessarily related to a future Smash, but Sakurai talks about Melee:

Mayhaps this can be used to see how speculation can change?

"What if that 'future Smash' was Melee HD?"
/s

 

[Ivander]

Wait is cuphead owned by Microsoft

Yeah, Microsoft bought it from the creators sometime after the original release.

Holy portal to Zenith what a post! I’m just jumping in to be a hipster and suggest Loki considering her all-round importance to the overall story. Gonna read the full post later and edit in my thoughts!

Aside from her role in Book 2 and one moment in Book 5, she hasn't exactly done anything of major importance in the foreground since then. She is a major background character yes and for the most part after Book 2, she has remained in the background, mostly just watching the characters overcome their challenges and only coming in when she either wants to talk to certain characters or sees an opportunity in manipulating something. She'll probably become a much bigger character when her leader, Alfaðör, is ready to reveal themselves.

Also, Smash is for good boys and girls.

 

[Wario Wario Wario]

Yeah, Microsoft bought it from the creators sometime after the original release.

That is literally a lie

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Thats by quite far the worst "prediction" for a new smash roster Ive ever seen and its not even close. And they say "Your results" with proud caps even tho their pols where only posted in a few places, had low entrance and they didnt followed it at all, but used instead bad excuses, cause a lot of people were against cuts period, they just used wtv excuse to cut the ones they personally werent into and use the pol as a cover to toxic roster cuts, if it was "your results" (so no real world constraints) then wed get everyone is here again instead of this excuse to hate (even back when that "pol" was out I remember some redit comment said how some questions felt super skewed and even then everyone was saying theyd personally want everyone here or not cuts etc, theyre using fake ad populum to justify their own hate/opinions so their video would look more legit instead of just another fan roster)

They also clearly removed characters solely for personal preference and added their wanted ones without caring for more than some cheap excuses:

• Kazuuya is a massive icon, thats also from a series that does crossovers all the time, zero excuse to cut when it also has an unique moveset, they just got salty they didnt predicted him
• Zero Suit Samus is both popular and unique, this right here proves 100% this was NOT based on fan input period, they should be ashamed of using "your results" when thats objectively a lie
• Joker may not be that big but its highly popular in smash, has a huge fanbase outside it, and P6 may be far away and have an entire different concept to an mc
• Incineroar has an extremely unique moveset, and no other pokemon would fight the same, its there for the fun moveset that nothing comes close too, and they just cut it for being petty and angry it wasnt their personal choice
• Toon Link and Falco may be semiclones, but theyre also gigantic icons to the Smash series and their lack would disappoint so many fans, if so many echoes are staying, a roster that big as what they did shouldnt have issue
• Deciding on such icons as Hero and Sora over a bad spiteful roulette is just lame and shows theyre salty at both, Hero itself should never be considered out if third parties are far game, specially when they dump a bunch of ones solely because they were speculated a lot during early dlc period, this also proves how american-centric and spiteful of other places they are that this is even up to debate, keeping Hero, Dragon Quest is one of the biggest franchises ever in Japan
• Despite the hate they get both Corrin and Byleth have many players who love their unique movesets too, and even then cutting one over the other was clearly bias from the streamers and not a fan request (of their suprisingly microscopic fanbase judging by how empty the chat was and how they get no views despite the site being so old)
• We dont know when MP4 comes out, if the Sylux tease pays off, and if its big enough to justify smash spot, thats just again their personal bias instead of a fair prediction
• If negotiations are such an issue then they shouldnt bloat it with tons of MS reps, yes they had an easy time this time, but we dont know the future and thats a lot of reps when they butchered the Squeenix ones solely out of spite
• Piranha Plant and its unique moveset, and design, and fans, being cut despite other weird choices like Rob staying just shows, once again, that they are just very spiteful and full of hate that their personal predictions from 5 years ago were wrong, cant ever get over it, and are using the stream to project their hate as a factual proposal
• Other than Disney hardships, theres no other reason to cut Sora, its the MOST WANTED character in Smash period, and they have the gal to claim this is fan input when they cut the most requested character ever, sorry for caps but they should ashamed of such clickbait, thats just embarassing
• The XC3 choice fully proves they know nothing about why Pyra got chosen and just assume she was some main girl and thats it

I cant believe it came from that site, I guess they lost everybody there that did good analisys or understood the roster choices, cause even when I used to lurk to read predictions here, like 99% rosters of this site alone are better than this one, even the ones to other games would make better smash sequel rosters, that also had nothing to do with the poll, just like the pokemon stuff, it was them projecting their own bias using fake ad populum

Id be willing to bet that 99% users of this forum could make a more fitting prediction roster than this mess (which despite its advertising is clearly NOT based on the polls as I mentioned, it was only their bias at best using the poll to pick newcomers the rest is bs)
The only good thing I can claim from that video is that I will never again feel sorry that their site and videos are so empty of views and basically dead in the water nowadays, they truly became irrelevant, tho with the caveat that such emptiness allowed them to pretend they represent the fans with such obscure polling that they couldnt even follow, dang to think this was from the site that archived sakurai articles before

Edit


I like both Takamaru and Sukapon but their logic doesnt hold specially when last time had no retros (and again this proves this roster is not being build off that poll at all if they just pick whoever like that and cut a lot to make room) most probably neither would be chosen as the retro catalogue has so many possible paths anyway

And about Bomberman theres zero info about its rights being an issue, unlike say Ms Pacman, this is all well documented and they should know that as they used to help documentng before their site became washed up and empty and everyone left, Bomberman shouldn have issues if it gets such complex skins and if bomb items are fair game. Sounds more like they personally had bias against it and again, this proves this was not "your results" like they clickbaited, none of this was from the poll at all, that was for newcomers mostly too.

I don't think spite is an accurate call.

The roster has issues and I agree with many of your criticisms, but I don't think its fair to say those decisions came from spite.

Bias? Sure. Spite? Nah.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

So now that Mario Kart 7 Rainbow road is back th next smash now has the assets to bring back the rainbow road stage.
Cool.

Persona 5 Royale or NieR Automa? I'm thinking about getting one of these games, since they're nicely priced. But not both of them. Which of the two is the pick of you guys here ?

Persona 5.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Persona 5 Royale or NieR Automa? I'm thinking about getting one of these games, since they're nicely priced. But not both of them. Which of the two is the pick of you guys here ?

Sparks of Hope gold edition

 

[osby]

Intentional or not, Source Gaming removing three of the RPG guest fighters in the roster and adding 5 platforming third parties is hilariously and stereotypically on point for Smash fan rosters.

 

[Ivander]

That is literally a lie
View attachment 364042

Studio MDHR still owns it for the most part, Microsoft did confirm that. But Microsoft clearly has some control over it as besides the original Xbox exclusivity, they are the ones who approached MDHR to make the Switch version. Nintendo themselves even said, "thank our friends at Microsoft" in regards to Cuphead on Switch.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Intentional or not, Source Gaming removing three of the RPG guest fighters in the roster and adding 5 platforming third parties is hilariously and stereotypically on point for Smash fan rosters.

As much as I hate that we get alot of jrpg reps these days I do agree it's odd they didn't add very many to this roster considering how much the smash team favors that genre.

I will say though while we (unfortunately for me) wouldn't get this many platformer reps, the ones they added are all pretty strong contenders for the next game (maybe not shantae or so much Dixie king though). Just obviously wouldn't be all 5

Edit: might actually be 4 third party platformers: Rayman, Crash, Shantae and Shadow unless I'm missing someone

 

[HyperSomari64]

Speaking of FEH, i'm surprised that the game hasn't made a crossover event in five years. Yes you can talk about the Dragalia one, but that one was in that game and not FEH.
I think the most obvious choice would be Xenoblade, but not sure how the characters would react after seeing cyborg girl or sword girl.

 

[Perkilator]

Speaking of FEH, i'm surprised that the game hasn't made a crossover event in five years. Yes you can talk about the Dragalia one, but that one was in that game and not FEH.

I’m just sad that neither game got a Spirit Event in Smash Ultimate.

 

[Wario Wario Wario]

BTW for everyone who doesnt get why people want Bandana Dee Here is a lore vid on him:

You're kinda just proving my point about Bandee: if you need to link a 5 minute long video essay for someone to grasp why the character is so beloved rather than just a quick glance at a promo render or a 2 minute long uncommentated gameplay video, it's gonna be hard to encapsulate the elements that make the character appealing in a Smash moveset.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Speaking of FEH, i'm surprised that the game hasn't made a crossover event in five years. Yes you can talk about the Dragalia one, but that one was in that game and not FEH.
I think the most obvious choice would be Xenoblade, but not sure how the characters would react after seeing cyborg girl or sword girl.

Apparently, it's like Fate/Grand Order: they crossover with other games, but never in itself...

(Also, Advance Wars would be an obvious one for FEH).

 

[HyperSomari64]

I’m just sad that neither game got a Spirit Event in Smash Ultimate.

And i'm sad because no Mirage Sessions music.

Apparently, it's like Fate/Grand Order: they crossover with other games, but never in itself...

So Neco-Arc will be like Waluigi in Smash or Sonic in a new Project X Zone entry.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

And i'm sad because no Mirage Sessions music.

It bugs me that none of these crossover game songs didn't mak it into smash except the excitbike song in the Mario kart stages.

Hyrul warriors had some real bangers that should have gotten in.

 

[HyperSomari64]

It bugs me that none of these crossover game songs didn't mak it into smash except the excitbike song in the Mario kart stages.

Hyrul warriors had some real bangers that should have gotten in.

TFW there's an fanon page for an hypothetical music expansion in the crossover section, the only #FE song is from a meme that was from a spoiler moment in the game.

Ganime/Expanded Music Selection 2

smashmovesetfanon.fandom.com

 

[Wonder Smash]

i expect next smash game to have 3 new 3rd party companies to get a rep
-in brawl we got 2 new companies (Konami, SEGA)
-in sm4sh we got 3 new companies (Capcom, Namco, Square-Enix)
-in ultimate we got 3 new companies (Microsoft, SNK, Disney)

my prediction next 3 new companies would be:
-I think the 2 next most likely companies are Ubisoft and Tecmo due to strong relationship with nintendo and already having some content in smash and both already showed their support for Rayman and Ryu Hayabusa and having alot of demand in the smash community overall
-as for the 3rd new company its a bit tricky but i think it might be either Tetris or ArcSys or Warner Bros or Tencent each of them for a different reason but i think Tetris and ArcSys are more likely due to them already having some content in smash and long history with nintendo

what i have seen from ultimate newcomers is that there is almost a balance between nintendo reps and 3rd party reps
Nintendo reps:
nintendo Echoes:
3rd party reps:
3rd party Echoes:
i am expecting next smash newcomers would be 50% nintendo reps and 50% 3rd party reps
in ultimate each 3rd party company got another newcomer (besides SNK and Disney since they joined late during DLC era) so i do expect that to happen again

but what do you think?
what are your thoughts on what could be the next 3 new 3rd party companies getting a rep

At this point, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a Nihon Falcom character in the next game. Sakurai is clearly a big fan of RPGs and he made a video talking about Nihon Falcom games, so I can actually picture either him or Nintendo approaching them to add one of their characters in Smash.

I can also see Koei Tecmo, Ubisoft, and Arc System Works being the most likely if we're talking just 3 companies but if at least one of them don't make it in, then I'm sure Nihon Falcom would be the next in line...unless more than 3 companies can work.

 

[Oracle Link]

You're kinda just proving my point about Bandee: if you need to link a 5 minute long video essay for someone to grasp why the character is so beloved rather than just a quick glance at a promo render or a 2 minute long uncommentated gameplay video, it's gonna be hard to encapsulate the elements that make the character appealing in a Smash moveset.

Okay Fine four Words Then: Spear, Parasol. Beam Wand!

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sakurai posted his game concepts video on Melee.

I also couldn't find the video for the first Smash posted on this thread so I put it here too if you haven't seen it yet.

 

[osby]

You're kinda just proving my point about Bandee: if you need to link a 5 minute long video essay for someone to grasp why the character is so beloved rather than just a quick glance at a promo render or a 2 minute long uncommentated gameplay video, it's gonna be hard to encapsulate the elements that make the character appealing in a Smash moveset.

Okay, how do you measure whether a character's design alone gets people excited or not? Some people like cute characters, others are into cool-looking ones and a design that looks appealing to one fan may be overdesigned for another. Your points only show what you personally think is a good design.

Second, there's no need for people who never heard of a character before to immediately fall in love with them upon seeing their render. Smash is a fighting game, and characters' playstyles are just as imperative to their appeal as how they look. Sure, design is the first thing people gravitate towards but it's not like most newcomers don't get introduction videos that show them off nowadays.

Finally, I call bull**** on the "you can't capture a character's essence if they have more depth than a piece of paper" argument. It's just the same old gatekeeping for lore-heavy game characters in favor of scrimblos. Sephiroth is still badass as **** even if you can't fit his background into a jpeg.

 

[fogbadge]

does anyone else miss chao gardens?

 

[Perkilator]

Okay, how do you measure whether a character's design alone gets people excited or not? Some people like cute characters, others are into cool-looking ones and a design that looks appealing to one fan may be overdesigned for another. Your points only show what you personally think is a good design.

Second, there's no need for people who never heard of a character before to immediately fall in love with them upon seeing their render. Smash is a fighting game, and characters' playstyles are just as imperative to their appeal as how they look. Sure, design is the first thing people gravitate towards but it's not like most newcomers don't get introduction videos that show them off nowadays.

Finally, I call bull** on the "you can't capture a character's essence if they have more depth than a piece of paper" argument. It's just the same old gatekeeping for lore-heavy game characters in favor of scrimblos. Sephiroth is still badass as ** even if you can't fit his background into a jpeg.

Pretty much this:

Anyway, after seeing the Booster Course Pass trailer that showcased 3DS Rainbow Road, now I’m even more sad that it hasn’t returned for Ultimate, because the way it looks in MK8D is beautiful.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Let me rephrase this a little: if a character is only really that well known to devoted or long-time Nintendo fans, having a striking design and a personality that is possible to communicate through attack animations (not dialog; trailers; victories or taunts mind you) is imperative. K. Rool, Ridley, and Banjo were honestly terrible choices to make this point now I think about it (Ridley and Banjo were probably forgotten quickly compared to Rool more for how their inclusion was executed than the actual character choices) - so instead, I'll point to the FE characters: they've got unique traits in their source material, but are so un-striking on a fundamental character design (with context of characters who came before) level that to non-fans they're indistinguishable, and would be even without their quantity. Or, if we're talking a hypothetical character, Bandana Dee: a character who has the bare minimum distinction from the species used as a base - which, as is, is rather close to the protag's design - and is primarily loved because of menu screens and a promotional song rather than how he's animated in the game action.

Your new examples of the FE characters are also issues largely related to execution though, with the series representation having multiple characters deliberately chosen for their capability to be clones and Corrin and Byleth being both being both victims of timing even though “Swordsman that transforms into a dragon” and “Mercenary with multiple weapons” are some of the easiest elevator pitches to convey in a moveset. And these two are even the protagonist from visual novel-like JRPGs, a genre almost diametrically opposed to having their protagonists entire appeal be clearly conveyed from a visual standpoint.

 

[dream1ng]

Let me rephrase this a little: if a character is only really that well known to devoted or long-time Nintendo fans, having a striking design and a personality that is possible to communicate through attack animations (not dialog; trailers; victories or taunts mind you) is imperative. K. Rool, Ridley, and Banjo were honestly terrible choices to make this point now I think about it (Ridley and Banjo were probably forgotten quickly compared to Rool more for how their inclusion was executed than the actual character choices) - so instead, I'll point to the FE characters: they've got unique traits in their source material, but are so un-striking on a fundamental character design (with context of characters who came before) level that to non-fans they're indistinguishable, and would be even without their quantity. Or, if we're talking a hypothetical character, Bandana Dee: a character who has the bare minimum distinction from the species used as a base - which, as is, is rather close to the protag's design - and is primarily loved because of menu screens and a promotional song rather than how he's animated in the game action.

The reason for FE's reception is owing to a large number of people finding them overabundant and derivative, not inherently due to lacklustre implementation. You can witness this by the fact that Marth, Roy and Ike were and are fairly popular characters in Smash, despite not really being all that flashy or complicated in their movesets. You can contrast this by the movesets of Corrin and Byleth, the former who regularly turns into a dragon, and the latter who actually uses more weaponry than just a sword. But it's because the fanbase was already irate with the series treatment at the time of their addition that prompted their lukewarm to negative response. It's not because the characters were fundamentally boring. If anything, the earlier additions were more "boring" from a moveset perspective. Were it the other way around, Marth and Ike would seem horribly plain. But people like them.

I also don't particularly find BWD an interesting character, but I know people aren't interested in him because of a menu screen and a promotional song. Your evaluation of why people care about characters seems rather skewed. I mean, people mostly care about Banjo because of the limited dialogue of Banjo-Kazooie? What are you talking about? Could it be because B-K was a highly successful Nintendo game in its day? BWD is because he's the fourth character of the series. I won't disagree though that if BWD had a one-off role like Marx or Magolor, he'd lack their equivalent popularity. I mean he did exist for like fifteen years before anyone gave a **** about him. I agree that I don't think he's innately as popular, I think he's the beneficiary of an advantageous position in his series. But popularity is popularity.

If your premise is that he wouldn't maintain appeal after being added, perhaps so, but I don't see the proof in your argument that supports that, considering the factor you outline, design and personality communicated through animations, has inconsistent effect on the post-inclusion lasting appeal.

I also agree that Ridley and Banjo are poor examples because both are quite expressive characters in their animations. Especially Banjo. Cartoony characters lend themselves to that. Plus, a character like DH is highly expressive, but yet is generally one of the more overlooked fighters. I would also contend that DH was a character unfamiliar to a lot of younger gamers when they were added. Another character with animations uniquely added solely for personality who many people also don't really care much about is Incineroar. I think he's fallen off even more than your claims of Ridley and Banjo.

But we're also just rolling with your assertion that people forgot about Banjo and Ridley but not K. Rool afterwards, but that seems pretty conjectural. Did you know Banjo received the highest amiibo shipments of any DLC character in wave one? Something something supply and demand. This goes back to the erroneous thinking of people stop caring about characters simply because they stop talking about them once they're in.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

As far as BWD, his popularity and growing requests felt entirely natural from what I recall. His inclusion in Return to Dream Land really got people believing he might work as a fighter, his status in Triple Deluxe/Planet Robobot continued his prominence, and the following appearances in stuff like Rainbow Curse, Star Allies, and even spin-offs like Fighters solidfied him it many people's eyes as having the presence and moveset potential to work in Smash.

 

[dream1ng]

Cool final roster, a shame they took out Tarnished though
Oh and them deciding between Hero and Sora using a roulette and Hero taking it was funny, never doubt the RNG king.

It is a cool final roster, but it's in no way realistic, because it based almost every non-promotional newcomer on fan popularity. If you look at previous lineups, it's only a small number of inclusions actually owing to the fans.

The only third-party who isn't among the most popular seems like Sol. Meanwhile they base almost every character on popularity but cut Sora? Why? Especially after all the effort to procure him.

The first-parties seem alright I guess. I'm guessing people are upset about the cuts, but cuts do need to happen, and it seems like overall they chose sensible ones. Ones less popular, less integral to their series, or of derivative design. Retaining Dark Pit over some of the other cuts is weird though.

Though Sourcegaming itself has published statements of how they don't select characters of regional exclusivity, so I have no idea why they stuck Sukapon and Takamaru (who I think in Sakurai's mind probably still counts) on there. And Sylux seems premature, as has his entire support for the last however many years. Especially over ZSS.

Like, yeah, I'd be very happy to get this roster. It's got a ton of fan favorites. But it's not gonna happen. It's basically every overly idealistic fan roster, with like seven fan favorite third-parties and basically every remaining fan favorite first party.

i want to extend this to showcase something noticable regarding 3rd party reps patterns since brawl all the way to ultimate

	Konami	SEGA	Capcom	Namco	Square-Enix	Microsoft	SNK	Disney
Brawl
Sm4sh	Company is Absent
Ultimate
My prediction of final roster if every 3rd party company comes back in base game next smash game	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]	[Newcomer or Echo]

would this be more likely be the case with the 3rd party companies as they stay each smash installment they get extra character and it could regarded as way they could keep in close relationship

Cool chart, though I think the idea that a company will expand just because they're present is flawed, given how not every company's stable is exactly equal. Like, on one side you have Capcom and Microsoft, who could populate the third-party newcomers by themselves, on the other you have SNK and Disney, where more characters seems a much more tenuous outcome.

Studio MDHR still owns it for the most part, Microsoft did confirm that. But Microsoft clearly has some control over it as besides the original Xbox exclusivity, they are the ones who approached MDHR to make the Switch version. Nintendo themselves even said, "thank our friends at Microsoft" in regards to Cuphead on Switch.

Microsoft owns the rights to the one game, Studio MDHR owns the IP. That's why something like Cuphead in Smash wouldn't involve Microsoft.

 

[Geno Boost]

It is a cool final roster, but it's in no way realistic, because it based almost every non-promotional newcomer on fan popularity. If you look at previous lineups, it's only a small number of inclusions actually owing to the fans.

The only third-party who isn't among the most popular seems like Sol. Meanwhile they base almost every character on popularity but cut Sora? Why? Especially after all the effort to procure him.

The first-parties seem alright I guess. I'm guessing people are upset about the cuts, but cuts do need to happen, and it seems like overall they chose sensible ones. Ones less popular, less integral to their series, or of derivative design. Retaining Dark Pit over some of the other cuts is weird though.

Though Sourcegaming itself has published statements of how they don't select characters of regional exclusivity, so I have no idea why they stuck Sukapon and Takamaru (who I think in Sakurai's mind probably still counts) on there. And Sylux seems premature, as has his entire support for the last however many years. Especially over ZSS.

Like, yeah, I'd be very happy to get this roster. It's got a ton of fan favorites. But it's not gonna happen. It's basically every overly idealistic fan roster, with like seven fan favorite third-parties and basically every remaining fan favorite first party.


Cool chart, though I think the idea that a company will expand just because they're present is flawed, given how not every company's stable is exactly equal. Like, on one side you have Capcom and Microsoft, who could populate the third-party newcomers by themselves, on the other you have SNK and Disney, where more characters seems a much more tenuous outcome.


Microsoft owns the rights to the one game, Studio MDHR owns the IP. That's why something like Cuphead in Smash wouldn't involve Microsoft.

I did put that SNK and Disney could get an echo fighter Rock Howard and Roxas can fill that easily
But also Metal Slug and Club Penguin could hold so much weight when it comes to another SNK and Disney rep

 

[silenthunder]

I did put that SNK and Disney could get an echo fighter Rock Howard and Roxas can fill that easily
But also Metal Slug and Club Penguin could hold so much weight when it comes to another SNK and Disney rep

SNK and Disney aren't really heavy hitters like Microsoft and Capcom. I don't think Club Penguin is realistic.

 

[dream1ng]

I did put that SNK and Disney could get an echo fighter Rock Howard and Roxas can fill that easily
But also Metal Slug and Club Penguin could hold so much weight when it comes to another SNK and Disney rep

Likelihood doesn't begin and end with the option simply existing.

There are a number of other factors like popularity and prevalence of the series and character, especially on a global scale, the limited spots third-parties receive resulting in tougher competition, and the fact that even if a character has a strong case, they often just don't make it because we can't get everyone.

So if a company has options, but those options are quite limited, more minor, or just a stretch for one reason or another, simply already being present on the roster in some capacity isn't a very strong reason to believe they will inherently expand.