Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[MrMcNuts]

i think we should don't putting so much stock in online polls

To an extent, but I think you can also look at multiple polls to see who's consistently scoring high on them, and then get a good idea of who's highly requested and such

 

[Lionfranky]

It's quite surprising to see that Chief beating Geno and Doom Slayer. I guess people were right about Chief's popularity afterall.

 

[Dinoman96]

It's quite surprising to see that Chief beating Geno and Doom Slayer. I guess people were right about Chief's popularity afterall.

Not that surprising considering Halo has always been more popular than DOOM, let alone Mario RPG. And now it being in Smash seems possible due to Microsoft being involved.

 

[Lionfranky]

Not that surprising considering Halo has always been more popular than DOOM, let alone Mario RPG. And now it being in Smash seems possible due to Microsoft being involved.

I mean... both Geno and Doom Slayer were in top 5 last time I checked. It's quite drop in support.

 

[fogbadge]

It's quite surprising to see that Chief beating Geno and Doom Slayer. I guess people were right about Chief's popularity afterall.

well guess it just proves xbox nostalgia strong. although saying that b&k's inclusion surely proves n64 nostalgia is stronger

 

[chocolatejr9]

Unrelated, but here's a new Sega report about their IPs:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Apparently, the "major past IPs" are IPs Sega is considering bringing back, but I couldn't find the part that mentions that. Either way, more potential Sega reps!

 

[HyperSomari64]

Apparently, the "major past IPs" are IPs Sega is considering bringing back, but I couldn't find the part that mentions that. Either way, more potential Sega reps!

Kid Chameleon reboot when!?

 

[MasterCheef]

Is it me or do a lot of moves seem a lot slower than they should ? would you like some moves to be faster ?

examples include ; Palutena's Explosive flame _ & _ Ganondorf's Forward Smash

It's quite surprising to see that Chief beating Geno and Doom Slayer. I guess people were right about Chief's popularity afterall.

Thank you

 

[chocolatejr9]

Kid Chameleon reboot when!?

Whenever we get a new Billy Hatcher: which, knowing my luck, will be never.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Sakura Wars feels like one of those IP's that would be in a better position now if Sega had made some better calls in the last few years. Managing to lose money on the mobile spin-off and releasing the most recent mainline game without putting it on the system that's dominating the Japanese market feels pretty telling of how baffling their moves have been with the franchise as of late.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I mean... both Geno and Doom Slayer were in top 5 last time I checked. It's quite drop in support.

Doom Slayer is at 10 and Master Chief is at 6. That's not really a major gap between the two.

Master Chief has always been mentioned in Smash discussions for years, long before Microsoft was involved so him being high on that list no surprise. However, Doom Slayer's support seemed is just shot up almost instantly during Ultimate, so that's pretty interesting.

I am curious, I've seen so many Master Chief supporters and I often wonder what do they think of Doom. In some discussions I've had, people either don't fully understand how the important the series is or even know anything about Doom Slayer.

 

[Lionfranky]

Doom Slayer is at 10 and Master Chief is at 6. That's not really a major gap.

Master Chief has always been mentioned in Smash discussions for years long before Microsoft was involved but Doom Slayer's support seemed is just shot up almost instantly during Ultimate.

Doom Slayer was like at 3 or 4 iirc. I meant drop in support for Slayer, not gap between the two. I definitely remember that Doom Slayer was definitely ranked higher than Master Chief in previous poll.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I think it's about time for Contra to get more support now.

Doom Slayer was like at 3 or 4 iirc. I meant drop in support for Slayer, not gap between the two. I definitely remember that Doom Slayer was definitely ranked higher than Master Chief in previous poll.

I wasn't saying that's what you were saying. I was just pointing out that where Doom Slayer ended up being now was not really that far away from where Chief is now.

Though it was possibly rigged. I wouldn't be surprised.

 

[Speed Weed]

Unrelated, but here's a new Sega report about their IPs:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Apparently, the "major past IPs" are IPs Sega is considering bringing back, but I couldn't find the part that mentions that. Either way, more potential Sega reps!

Considering how much people like to paint Sakura Wars as this DEAD IRRELEVANT FRANCHISE with a FAILED COMEBACK, it being back on there is....encouraging

 

[fogbadge]

let me know when they remember billy hatcher is a thing

 

[Speed Weed]

let me know when they remember billy hatcher is a thing

People asking for Billy Hatcher to come back are weak and will not survive the winter, true power lies in the hearts of those who want a sequel to Zombie Revenge

 

[chocolatejr9]

People asking for Billy Hatcher to come back are weak and will not survive the winter, true power lies in the hearts of those who want a sequel to Zombie Revenge

I've been asking for a new Billy Hatcher for YEARS! Trust me, I'm stronger than your limited mind will EVER comprehend.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Given the success of SOR4, TMNT Shredder's Revenge, and River City Girls, Sega would be smart in getting an indie developer to see what they can do with a Golden Axe sequel. There's enough stuff in the games proper and enough smart talent out there to get a real modern sequel with depth if done right.

 

[fogbadge]

People asking for Billy Hatcher to come back are weak and will not survive the winter, true power lies in the hearts of those who want a sequel to Zombie Revenge

pfft I’m from Scotland, bad weather can’t hurt me

 

[chocolatejr9]

pfft I’m from Scotland, bad weather can’t hurt me

Is that why you hate Steve's Scottish alt?

 

[Speed Weed]

I've been asking for a new Billy Hatcher for YEARS! Trust me, I'm stronger than your limited mind will EVER comprehend.

Billy Hatcher fans when the SEGA fighting game finally happens and it features Classic Arcadeguy and Influential McJRPG Girl instead of Poopfart Johnson from the 32X game that sold 10 copies and is widely disliked by SEGA diehards

 

[fogbadge]

Is that why you hate Steve's Scottish alt?

yes

 

[chocolatejr9]

Billy Hatcher fans when the SEGA fighting game finally happens and it features Classic Arcadeguy and Influential McJRPG Girl instead of Poopfart Johnson from the 32X game that sold 10 copies and is widely disliked by SEGA diehards
View attachment 362876

Dude, relax, I just want Sega to acknowledge him. You don't have to resort to... whatever this is.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Folks whether you're a fan of Billy Hatcher or of classic Sega characters, I think we can all agree both have value and in all likelihood for a fighting game, both will to be attacked by the online fandom for not being Sonic characters.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Folks whether you're a fan of Billy Hatcher or of classic Sega characters, I think we can all agree both have value and in all likelihood for a fighting game, both will to be attacked by the online fandom for not being Sonic characters.

So what you're saying is, we should join forces against the Sonic fans, right?

 

[Speed Weed]

Dude, relax, I just want Sega to acknowledge him. You don't have to resort to... whatever this is.

Alright, I'm sorry, it's just....I dunno. I just feel like William is kind of a middle-of-the-road scrimblo who gets a lot of undeserved hype from people unfamiliar with SEGA. You can like him just fine, but to me, he's never been all that interesting or important to the makeup of SEGA's properties. I don't like how people always disregard any kind of acknowledgement SEGA do of their old IP just cause he's not in it, I don't like how people treat his lack of acknowledgement as some sort of injustice, I don't like how people look at some super sick SEGA rosters or character lists I've seen and their reaction is just "aight but where's THE BEST SEGA CHARACTER" and it's...Billy Hatcher. I don't like how he gets more attention from the general public than so many better and more interesting SEGA games and properties. To me it's like if out of all Nintendo IP, everyone was weirdly fixated on FlingSmash

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

So what you're saying is, we should join forces against the Sonic fans, right?

You could emerge as the second greatest enemy to them, the first of course being other Sonic fans.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Alright, I'm sorry, it's just....I dunno. I just feel like William is kind of a middle-of-the-road scrimblo who gets a lot of undeserved hype from people unfamiliar with SEGA. You can like him just fine, but to me, he's never been all that interesting or important to the makeup of SEGA's properties. I don't like how people always disregard any kind of acknowledgement SEGA do of their old IP just cause he's not in it, I don't like how people treat his lack of acknowledgement as some sort of injustice, I don't like how people look at some super sick SEGA rosters or character lists I've seen and their reaction is just "aight but where's THE BEST SEGA CHARACTER" and it's...Billy Hatcher. I don't like how he gets more attention from the general public than so many better and more interesting SEGA games and properties. To me it's like if out of all Nintendo IP, everyone was weirdly fixated on FlingSmash

Yeah, that's fair. For me, to put it bluntly, Billy Hatcher is the one I grew up with. Never heard of stuff like Phantasy Star or Fantasy Zone or... whatever "antasy" games they had (pardon the bad joke) when I was a kid. Billy was just one of the ones I had, and I adored his game. So I guess I just have a bit of a personal attachment. Sorry if I gave you the wrong impression or anything.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Happy 1st Anniversary to Mario Party Superstars!

 

[silenthunder]

Happy 1st Anniversary to Mario Party Superstars!

Yoshi!

 

[fogbadge]

Alright, I'm sorry, it's just....I dunno. I just feel like William is kind of a middle-of-the-road scrimblo who gets a lot of undeserved hype from people unfamiliar with SEGA. You can like him just fine, but to me, he's never been all that interesting or important to the makeup of SEGA's properties. I don't like how people always disregard any kind of acknowledgement SEGA do of their old IP just cause he's not in it, I don't like how people treat his lack of acknowledgement as some sort of injustice, I don't like how people look at some super sick SEGA rosters or character lists I've seen and their reaction is just "aight but where's THE BEST SEGA CHARACTER" and it's...Billy Hatcher. I don't like how he gets more attention from the general public than so many better and more interesting SEGA games and properties. To me it's like if out of all Nintendo IP, everyone was weirdly fixated on FlingSmash

i'll have you know it's due to our nostalgia for the game cube

or whatever console they had it on

 

[dream1ng]

Online polls can be interesting, but right now is the equivalent to a popularity poll in 2009 or 2010 or something, where interesting as the results might be, it's not a particularly important time, nor is the fanbase particularly active. Consider the top character on the poll got 500-something votes, and during active speculation, polls yield top choices with votes in the 5-digits.

Barring another ballot, popularity will be most useful to know when it overlaps with the roster selection process, whether for base or for DLC. That's when it's likeliest to actually affect the roster. And sometimes we only know those periods in retrospect.

In theory it could be now, we don't know Sakurai's next project or anything. But that's also a big assumption to make. Moreover, it's unlikely they be canvassing for popularity results now when the fanbase is relatively dormant.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I find it just fun to see what characters some people like/expect. I don't find it super useful as data either, due to there's no way of knowing the majority of anything, but that's no better than any other official poll which can't reach everyone who would be willing to vote. It happens.

Neat to see that Master Chief took a huge notch up from before, too. But it was well after he had an actual Nintendo appearance(due to how late the ballot was), so he's going to instantly get people to be willing to think he has a stronger chance(which isn't wrong in itself).

 

[MrMcNuts]

Online polls can be interesting, but right now is the equivalent to a popularity poll in 2009 or 2010 or something, where interesting as the results might be, it's not a particularly important time, nor is the fanbase particularly active. Consider the top character on the poll got 500-something votes, and during active speculation, polls yield top choices with votes in the 5-digits.

Barring another ballot, popularity will be most useful to know when it overlaps with the roster selection process, whether for base or for DLC. That's when it's likeliest to actually affect the roster. And sometimes we only know those periods in retrospect.

In theory it could be now, we don't know Sakurai's next project or anything. But that's also a big assumption to make. Moreover, it's unlikely they be canvassing for popularity results now when the fanbase is relatively dormant.

That's fair, though it's interesting to see who's remaining popular like crash, Rayman, Waluigi, doom, chief, and Dante who were all popular during ultimate as well. They'll like trade spots and flip flop placements when the next game is announced, but I at least see those ones remaining pretty popular.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Online polls can be interesting, but right now is the equivalent to a popularity poll in 2009 or 2010 or something, where interesting as the results might be, it's not a particularly important time, nor is the fanbase particularly active. Consider the top character on the poll got 500-something votes, and during active speculation, polls yield top choices with votes in the 5-digits.

Barring another ballot, popularity will be most useful to know when it overlaps with the roster selection process, whether for base or for DLC. That's when it's likeliest to actually affect the roster. And sometimes we only know those periods in retrospect.

In theory it could be now, we don't know Sakurai's next project or anything. But that's also a big assumption to make. Moreover, it's unlikely they be canvassing for popularity results now when the fanbase is relatively dormant.

I get what you are saying, but there are reasons not to throw out the results from this pretty far spanning poll.

For starters, the big issue with a poll is not the number of people that reply. Typically anywhere from 500 to 2000 respondents is plenty for a poll. The big hurdle is trying to make sure you avoid polling bias and making sure your polling base is a representative sample. SourceGaming's poll had 2016 participants. Honestly, even during active speculation for a stronger, more scientific poll this holds up.

Avoiding a polling bias is close to impossible. For example, you will have polls that will have a slight right or left lean based just on the pollster on average. Trump loved Rasmussen polls for instance because they tilted conservative. Emerson College polls tend to give Democrats a slight leg up conversely. Both of these polls are scientific polls that are considered strong pieces of evidence if you look at the statistical side. FiveThirtyEight is my bible when it comes to electoral math, and both of those pollsters have a solid note despite having slight partisan biases.

Taking this towards Smash, sure, there might be a slight polling bias with SourceGaming's poll. I think most of us can agree that when a poll is done in the interim periods between games, it will probably reach only the more engaged section of the community. Then you also have to factor in the fact that this is the off season. This poll would have at least looked slightly different if they did it during peak speculation, like their 2020 poll.

I do not think this is too much of a concern though for a few reasons. For starters, they did have somewhat comparable results in their 2020 poll. The 2020 poll did have more responses, but so long as this is in some way a representative sample I do not think that matters too much. The data from the SourceGaming poll in 2022 does shows some movement, but some of the bigger jumps can be easily explained. Eggman for instance made a huge jump once Sephiroth made the possibility seem more realistic. Assist Trophies in general did better this time, with Waluigi, Zero, and Isaac rising. Likely part of this was just that we are speculating on a new game: the baggage from Ultimate for these characters is gone. I understand reservations about polling done now. The landscape will likely look different in 2024 or 2026 or what have you. That does not mean this polling is useless. It lets us track fan demand and see where it ebbs or flows.

The only important question for this poll is just whether it is a representative sample. There are issues with this being a representative sample. Probably right now this one leans much harder into hardcore fans and speculation than if it was done at a different time. But I think for that more hardcore wing of the fanbase, this is good data to show what fans want. We likely are not going to have a poll this strong for a while now, and this is the best snapshot we have at raw fan demand one year out of Ultimate. Will the scene change too much for this data to matter? It is hard to say, but historically we have gotten a few fan nods in each game Melee and onward, so it would not shock me if we got a fanservice pick or two that do not overlap hard with their current relevancy.

The main important takeaway from this is the trend line: Is the character's demand steady or rising? If that trend continues from 2020 to 2022 to 2024, I think that is very relevant information we have to consider. Waluigi over performed his 2020 numbers, while Crash remained steady with his dominant spot. Same if a character experiences a sharp decline. 2B for instance dropped from 17th in the 2020 poll to 44th in the 2022 poll. I find that more noteworthy than Geno dropping from 2nd to a very respectable 7th.

I totally get why you are skeptical of taking too much from this poll. Taking all your information and observations from one poll is always a bad idea. Even moreso when there are concerns that this might not be a representative sample. But the trends in the data do matter even now and this is probably gonna be the best poll we will get on raw fan demand for a long time.

Unrelated, but here's a new Sega report about their IPs:

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Apparently, the "major past IPs" are IPs Sega is considering bringing back, but I couldn't find the part that mentions that. Either way, more potential Sega reps!

Phantasy Star Online 2 is doing well according to Sega, that's nice.

I said it before, I will say it again. Keep your eye on Phantasy Star for Smash 6. It makes a lot of sense if we were to get another Sega rep.

 

[silenthunder]

Wasn't expecting Travis Touchdown to get so many votes

 

[Swamp Sensei]

People asking for Billy Hatcher to come back are weak and will not survive the winter, true power lies in the hearts of those who want a sequel to Zombie Revenge

If I love Valkyria Chronicles, will I survive the winter?

 

[Ivander]

People asking for Billy Hatcher to come back are weak and will not survive the winter, true power lies in the hearts of those who want a sequel to Zombie Revenge

How about Deep Fear?

 

[MasterCheef]

I said it before, I will say it again. Keep your eye on Phantasy Star for Smash 6. It makes a lot of sense if we were to get another Sega rep.

honestly i was really surprised we did not get one in SSBU. I would love a good Phantasy Star rep.

 

[Wonder Smash]

For a long time, I was stumped on an idea for a Final Smash for Bill and Lance if they were in Smash.

Today, I figured that the airship missile, as shown in Contra III, would be just right for them.

I really hope they're the next Konami characters in the next Smash game.