???
I'm not sure where you got smugness out of that post. There wasn't any there.
Also, I think the big thing here is that you believe being polarizing and being the most popular are mutually exclusive things. All being polarizing effectively means is that more people have an opinion on the subject, one way or the other. One such example I can give is from Fire Emblem, and that's Edelgard. She is easily one of the most polarizing characters in the entire franchise, if not the most polarizing, and the definition of a "love her or hate her" character. And yet when she became eligible for Choose Your Legends, she blew the vote count of every other character in her poll and all previous polls out of the water, showing that she is without a doubt one of the most popular characters in the series in addition to being among the most polarizing.
But going further, Choose Your Legends also shows how different things will be without an "anti-vote" option. It's a ballot; you pick who you want. You don't give votes against those you don't want. With a "rate 1-5" system, rating something a 1 is, effectively, an anti-vote, and that's what makes that sort of system inherently biased against polarizing characters. That was my point. That's not smugness; that's just how polling works.
And yes, you mentioned it wasn't indicative of the wider fanbase. But at that point...why even bring it up? Why respond to a point with a sarcastic "Does He Know?"-style meme implying that the poll result does matter? All it serves to do is send a mixed message, that the poll simultaneously proves nothing, but also proves everything?
Because at the end of the day, pretty much everything points to Waluigi being the most popular first party pick among the potential remaining newcomers. He's incredibly popular among the casual Nintendo and general online fanbases, the more casual online Smash fanbase, and the more hardcore Smash speculators. His popularity is consistent across borders and hemispheres by virtue of the series he hails from and his notoriety within said series.
And to that end...who would even compare? Most of the more fervent support bases left are for third party inclusions. Among first parties, the top requests simply can't match the pull Waluigi has. Isaac, by virtue of his series being dormant, mostly has pull from the more hardcore fans, and not the casuals. Bandana Waddle Dee has the same polarization as Waluigi, where many either fervently love or utterly despise the idea of him being playable...but on a much smaller scale due to the smaller install base. The Octolings are very popular, but the greater Splatoon fanbase both on the Smash side and the Splatoon side have a more minor version of the "Zelda issue" where there are many different support groups for different characters (Octoling, any of the now seven idols, DJ Octavio, or the final boss of Splatoon 3 that I won't spoil). Dixie Kong has a stable base, but it's no doubt smaller than Waluigi's, again by virtue of his prominence. Choices like Officer Howard, Raven Beak, and Noah or Mio come from more niche genres and franchises, so they lack a lot of the evergreen appeal Waluigi has. Spring Man has a decent following, especially after getting Smash 4 Chrom'd in Ultimate, but the fervor is comparatively dormant due to the perceived necessity of an ARMS sequel to bolster his appeal. Tom Nook is a very popular character, but the Smash side of the fanbase tends to be lukewarm on the idea of more Animal Crossing characters.
So like, genuinely. If Waluigi isn't the most popular first party pick, then who is? What was the point of the post if you couldn't offer a conceivable option for who would be?
This is my last post dealing with you.
If you bothered to click any of the polls I generously provided you, you would see that there are alternative options for a most demanded character. Bandana Dee for instance out performed Waluigi on all three of those polls. Plenty of other first parties have performed will in the polls as well, such as Isaac, Dixie Kong, Skull Kid, or even Porky on one. You also are just assuming that naturally, Waluigi's fan demand is going to rise. You can't predict the future like that. Waluigi could easily be a Brawl Geno or Krystal, or a Smash 4 Professor Layton where their demand peaks at a certain time and does not explore further. Already, if you even bothered to read any of the polls or any post I made, you would have seen that yes, there is evidence beyond a reasonable doubt that Waluigi is not the most popular first party. But it must be so much easier to make blanket statements like Waluigi is the most popular first party character right? He trended on twitter, even though I explained to you with a helpful link that trending on twitter does not mean as much at the end of the day. He got a caged PR response from Reggie. He even does... decently well but not overwhelmingly well on multiple fan polls. Surely, he must be the most popular first party?
Or instead of just making blanket statements that have no binding, you could actually make a coherent argument that yes, he might indeed not be the most popular first party. But it is so much easier to say I did not offer you reasonable alternatives, when I did so with multiple fan polls.
Even putting aside the ample evidence I provided you that does cast a reasonable doubt that Waluigi is outright the most popular first party, that does not remove the fact that he is a polarizing character. Yes, some people like Waluigi. Some people detest him. Compared to previous fan favorite picks like Ridley, K Rool, Palutena, or Little Mac, Waluigi is far more polarizing. He would more likely compare to Geno than any of them.
I originally was going to make a reply to someone else when they brought up the casual nintendo fanbase silent majority like you did, but this is a good time to stake that right through the heart. Using the ballot and polls from that era (ballot to Smash Ultimate E3) before the twitter fiasco, we can say that Waluigi was not an S tier request prior to the twitter fiasco. But even moreso, let's put to bed that there is this silent majority that would be ecstatic if Waluigi was somehow added to the game. You can just as easily claim any character from a popular Nintendo series would make the casual audience happy. What is stopping me from saying the silent majority demands Octolings, Tom Nook, and King Boo? What is stopping me from saying that Pauline would please this silent majority just as much as Waluigi? You can't claim to speak for a silent majority because they are silent. Maybe the silent majority loves Wii Fit Trainer. Maybe their favorite character is King K Rool. It is easy to just assume that this widespread, casual nintendo monolith that you claim is 100% behind Waluigi is firmly in his corner. Would they be happy with Waluigi? Sure. You know who else they would be happy with? Most other reasonably popular Nintendo characters that they know.
It's funny you say Waluigi's popularity crosses hemispheres, when its also clear he is more of a Western request. Compared to the US, demand for Waluigi is notably lower in Japan. But it is easy to just assume that Waluigi is this popular monolith. Just because he is a Mario character does not mean his popularity will automatically be what it was on NA twitter June 2018 everywhere else. What is stopping me from using your own backwards logic to claim that Tom Nook is the true pick of the silent majority, globally popular since Animal Crossing New Horizons was huge?
And yes, there is logic that perhaps, god forbid, the character you have latched onto, might not be the pick that speaks for everyone. Bandana Dee and Isaac both are competitive with Waluigi already, but both are far less polarizing than he is. Dee in particular outperformed Waluigi in each of the polls I spoonfed as an example, but I am going to take a shot in the dark that you did not read them. After all, why read them instead of saying I offered you no reasonable alternative take? Dixie Kong is another reasonable take, espeically now that she does not have a big green crocodilian obstacle in her way. If you want to go outside of the hardcore speculation scene, you can easily claim other characters could be a more desired first party. Spaltoon and Animal Crossing have had huge rises. Contrary to what you have suggested, I do think that support and demand has started to unify for both of those series. Octolings are the easy consensus pick for Splatoon, and they seem to be the most popular Splatoon pick by far. Tom Nook meanwhile is easily the Animal Crossing pick. But you want to have your cake and eat it to, so Tom Nook clearly can not ride the support of casual fans like Waluigi does by your own logic.
You also ignore the issue that, much like the issues you claim with Zelda and Splatoon, there are alternative Mario options that people would not be opposed to. Is Waluigi the most popular and polarizing of them? Sure. But there is fan demand out there for Geno, Pauline, King Boo, Paper Mario, and Captain Toad. All of those have at least somewhat of a fanbase, Geno's of which is actually comparable in size to Waluigi's (he even out performed him on some of the polls I generously provided you). Competition exists for a lot of franchises in Smash, even for the Mario fanbase. You could claim that the fandom could coalesce around Waluigi. Sure, that could happen. Or it could not. Maybe it only splinters further. There was a large growing wave of support for King Boo for instance at the end of Smash Ultimate's DLC lifespan, maybe that grows. Or maybe Pauline becomes a stronger fan request now that she is basically a mainstay addition to the Mario Spin Off crowd. There right now is no real evidence that the Mario fanbase is going to just band together and overwhelmingly support Waluigi the way for example Metroid fans did with Ridley. Maybe that will happen, but you can not just assume that it will like you conveniently do.
Unlike you, I think there is evidence that at least to a reasonable doubt, Waluigi is not the most popular first party character? Is he popular? Sure. But you can't just assume he is far and away the most popular first party on a whim. You can't casually dismiss any other option just because Waluigi trended on Twitter one time in 2018. There is evidence that the hardcore speculation audience does not have him as their first party of choice. The casual monolith you claim is behind evergreen Waluigi also is not an airtight piece of evidence: the silent majority could just as easily be behind something like a Tom Nook or an Octoling. It is easy to just latch onto a popular character, like Chrom in Smash 4. But it is important to critically think instead of just making a blanket statement about a character. The easy route is to use a leak like Gematsu like a cudgel and smash out any other speculation that threatens your "objective" choice. Needless to say, the "objective" choice did not win out in Smash 4. Despite Chrom being reasonably popular (albeit polarizing), he did not make it into Smash 4's roster as a unique character. Just because you hitch your bandwagon to a popular and/or likely character does not automatically mean they are the objective choice. There is plenty of evidence that Waluigi might not even be the most popular Mario character in some circles, Geno (an even more polarizing character) has a reasonable claim to that in the hardcore speculation fandom. I am not denying that Waluigi is popular, he is certainly a popular character. But saying outright that he is far and away the most popular character is putting your head in the sand, ignoring any evidence that suggests that Waluigi might not be the most popular character outright.
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Now with that done, let me take down your criticism of my poll. I am going to highlight your smug line about "how polling works" for this because I can tell you do not have a great idea about polling in general. I have a political science degree and have written papers on the subject in college. Several polls struggle for actual serious topics to get above 200 respondents. Reliable polling is hard, it is why we do not have great polling for most House of Representative races despite the election being days away. You also are assuming that every poll has to be a ballot, when that is just not the case either.
If you even bothered to read my article on the poll instead of skimming it for results, the goal was to see how the community broadly felt about characters. As a result, I went with this model instead. This model might negatively impact a polarizing character, but a traditional model has positive impacts on polarizing picks. The goal is not just to see who is a popular pick with a vocal fanbase: it is to see how the community at large feels about a character. Turns out, Waluigi is a polarizng character that many people also feel lukewarm on. Some characters, like King Boo, Captain Toad, or Pauline, were more consensus picks that did better. Having your two highest mean scores be 7-8 is better than your three highest mean scores be 10, 5, and 1. My poll, for what purposes I had in mind, is working as intended. It is showing how the community feels about characters broadly rather than just who their most wanted is. I know you whined about how Pauline scores
slightly higher than Waluigi. Does Pauline have as many ride or die fans? Obviously not. Her most common score by far was a 7: a supportive choice but not an invested ride or die one. Her next most common one was an 8. Waluigi's most common scores were 10, 5, and 1. People either loved him, hated him, or felt nothing towards him.
Now, let me remind you again of what the stated goals of the poll were, in the first paragraph of the article.
With the dry spell in-between Smash games, it gets hard to gauge how excited people are for a character and how likely people think a character is. It's not unheard of for a character’s fanbase and hype for a character to fizzle out or grow out between Smash games. I’ve created the Smash Community Character Corral to help remedy this.
At no point do I say this is a popularity contest. This is broadly to see how excited people are. Will a character being immensely popular help? Absolutely, that is obvious. But the goal is not to just run a poll and see if people want Waluigi, Geno, and Dixie Kong. The goal is to see broadly how excited people are about the idea of a character being in Smash and see what people's realistic expectations are. In terms of expectations, Waluigi did great, he had the highest score for part 1. But broadly, he does seem to be polarizing with a vocal fanbase, which I also mentioned in the article. You have the freedom to dislike the data. It is not a perfect data set: the first one for this series was always going to have less responses just due to being harder to promote. It is not a perfect representative sample either: Smashboards was one of the main sites used to advertise it. Smashboards is not and has never been a perfect representation of even the hardcore Smash community. But despite its faults, it is data from one poll. Some polarizing characters, like Geno and Waluigi, did not perform as well as I expected sure. It is still useful data at the end of the day that we can look to later during Smash 6 to see
But if a fun little meme and a short post is enough to get you all up in arms, I do not know what to say. I even highlighted within that own post that it is "just one poll" and that it did not speak to everything. But apparently a meme is enough to make it say everything and nothing according to you for some reason. Let's take a read of my post, that you clearly are making huge conclusions from.
Ooh boy. I know it is just one poll, but given the current results, Waluigi might not even be making top ten on the Smash Community Character Corral for want after Part 2 finishes. He got a good score, but you would be surprised. I do think he has one of the most vocal support bases, but I would not say automatically he is the most popular first party or that he is a lock by any means.
I clarify it is only one poll and he might not crack top 10 despite getting a good score. I then interject that he has a very vocal fanbase, and then personally suggest that he is not automatically the most popular first party and is absolutely not a lock for Smash 6.
But according to you, the presence of this picture does suggest that it means everything. That my one poll means that Waluigi is somehow not a popular character
despite me saying that he is popular and got a respectable score. Instead of reading what I actually said, which is pretty clearly not saying much at the end of the day, you choose to let one meme dictate that it says so much more than that. I do not know what to say to that. If you clearly read what I posted, that would absolutely not be the case. If you read the post I replied to, specifically the part I
highlighted like this, you would know that all I was saying is that maybe you should throw some cold water on the idea Waluigi is this inevitable popular behemoth who towers over every other first party.
Instead of reading that at all, you decided to take the meaning that my meme automatically meant that I was some prophet, someone who knew everything and that Waluigi was secretly not the popular character he is. Despite, you know, me clearly exactly not that in my post. If you can somehow come to such radical conclusions from a picture and three sentences, but fail to take anything away from my previous response that gave you very reasonable counterarguments and say that I provided no counterpoints, I do not know what to reasonably say to you.
