I am probably going to take a break from speculation hard after this post, but I figured I would share this with you all.
Originally, during the final day of RTC, I was going to try and post one last time to let everyone know the final tally, but instead we just dumped the info in the RTC discord. That being said, I figured I would show it off today. Thanks again to
Sari
for helping me with this.
For RTC's final day, we asked people to predict front runners for the next game, and try to guess either what would get in or what would become the hot topics of speculation, while putting a ban on Next Pokemon and Next Fire Emblem for obvious reasons. Here are the results.
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For first party, the amount of picks people really brought up was pretty consistent for the most part. You had a few people mentioning Animal Crossing and Tom Nook post New Horizons, but the vast majority of speculation was guessed to be on these six. In my opinion, these six all make a lot of sense. Splatoon has ballooned to be pretty big, Ring Fit and Astral Chain both were huge successes on the switch, and id say that the last three (Waluigi, Isaac, and Dee), are probably the last three truly massive smash requests in terms of first party.
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In terms of third parties, there was actually as you can see a lot more variety in who people highlighted and chose to focus on. Sakurai saying Lloyd and Dante were fan favorites seems to have made people more hopeful of them getting in in a potential next smash, whenever that may be. Crash still seems to have his fan demand intact, and still is seen as a super huge front runner for next time. Hayabusa support also seems to be less of a flash in the pan, hopefully he will be the Simon of the next gmae inf that makes sense. Capcom support seems to have people guessing that despite MH, RE, Chun Li, and Phoenix Wright all making sense, Dante seems to be king after that mii costume comment. People were divided on whether Chief, Doomguy, or Dragonborn would be the next Microsoft rep. Sol Badguy doing as well as he did surprised me, but to be fair if we do get another fighting game character, Guilty Gear seems like a solid place to turn to. Undertale/Deltarune seem to be the picks if we do get another indie character; with how popular they are globally I think it is a safe bet.
What was interesting though is how some characters have taken a tumble in terms of how likely people thought they are. Rayman, Shantae, and Geno for instance underpreformed what I expected of them.
Obviously, the entire question of the next smash is meaningless until there is a next smash. Hell, the most likely outcome according to that last Sakurai famitsu poll seems to be we might just get an ultimate port, where we would be lucky to get any new content save for better online. But it is interesting to have a bit of a baseline for what people are expecting. Thoughts?