Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[chocolatejr9]

well Now I’m wondering if Nintendo ever have bought a company for the people working there

Isn't that why they bought Next Level Games?

 

[fogbadge]

Isn't that why they bought Next Level Games?

i assumed it was cause theyve been making nothing but nintendo games for ages

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Nintendo tends to be a conservative company with their financials (a recent report on the number of actual employees there was fairly modest compared to others, particularly in the West) and doesn't tend to acquire developers unless the working relationship is so strong and the one in question fits perfectly in their general gaming strategy.

Particularly now, buying companies to get some sort of exclusivity wouldn't make much sense anyway. Many of the big Western ones tend to focus on big AAA projects with major costs, which aren't the kind of games Nintendo would want/need to have only be on their consoles. And with many of the ones in Japan, quite frankly the big N has just a strong control on that market, that they don't need to even to demand exclusivity, let alone purchase a company to get it. Many smaller developers are at the point where their releases won't do solid numbers back home unless there's a Switch version, and even a fairly wealthy corporation like Konami has gone all in on it because moderately budgeted Japanese only games on Nintendo are much safer releases financially than most big hypothetical Western oriented projects would be.

 

[Stratos]

I assumed that Nintendo acquired Next Level Games as it is known just to expand as a company.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Yeah but the fighters are Cloud and Sephiroth, not the Black Mage.

shrug It's about the series more than the character, to me.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I know Double Dragon is fairly more known by western gamers, but the River City/Kunio has more legacy (The spirit event says much).
Speaking of which (as this may sound a little "off-topic")

But also keep in mind how of much an influence Double Dragon has on the genre too, with one of those River City spirits feature characters (Ryuichi & Ryuji) pretty much showcases that very influence on their series.

But in the end, when it comes to ASW, Guilty Gear, Double Dragon, and River City all have good chances to be represented in the Smash series. Maybe even in the same game.

 

[Sid-cada]

I'm back, with the list of games listed on Wikipedia as best sellers (defined as selling at least a million units) that Nintendo has published on handhelds that do not have a playable represetntative.

Starting with the GB, it seems like their are a lot of ports from the NES. Most of these should be familur if saw my last list. Here they are, in order (again skipping ones that are just plain games like Golf or a Mahjong title):

1 - Tetris
2 - F-1 Race
3 - Alleyway
4 - Tetris DX
5 - Tetris 2
6 - Solar Striker (Note: Was a joint production with Minakuchi Engineering, a third party who seems to no longer exist)
7 - Qix (Note: Was a port of a game originally created by Taito)
8 - Super R.C. Pro-Am (Note: Again, game was made by Rare)
9 - Wave Race
10 - Space Invaders (Note: Port of a game originally by Taito)
11 - James Bond 007 (Note: Was made by now defuct third party Saffire)

Moving into the GBA, the only game Nintendo has published that doesn't have a playable character would be Golden Sun and it's sequal, Golden Sun: The Lost Age.

For the DS era:

1 - Nintendogs (all versions counted as one)
2 - Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day!
3 - Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day!
4 - Big Brain Academy
5 - English Training: Have Fun Improving Your Skills! (…seriously, this was a best seller? This doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. At least this counts as an appearance for someone as it is taught by Barbra the Bat...)
6 - Tomodachi Collection (This would probably count as something for the Miis, though)
7 - Flash Focus: Vision Training in Minutes a Day
8 - Rhythm Heaven
9 - Style Savvy (Note: Was produced by syn Sophia, who seems to be a third party that Nintendo seems to work occasionally with)
10 - Tetris DS
11 - Clubhouse Games
12 - Art Academy (Note: Joint produciton between Headstrong Games)
13 - Personal Trainer: Cooking
14 - Common Sense Training (Note: Produced by HAL)
15 - Inazuma Eleven: Firestorm and Blizzard (Note: developed by Level-5)

While that's the last of the DS, I'd feel remis to not mention that Nintendo published many Level-5 games for the World on the DS during that era, including 4 Professor Layton games.

Last but not least is the 3DS era:

1 - Yo-kai Watch 2 (Note: Series is produced by Level-5)
2 - Tomodachi Life (Again, maybe the Miis count for this)
3 - Nintendogs + Cats
4 - Yo-kai Watch
5 - Yo-kai Watch Blasters: Red Cat Corps and White Dog Squad
6 - Lego City Undercover: The Chase Begins (I don't have to say anyting about this, though, right?)
7 - Style Savvy: Trendsetters (Note; Again, was produced by syn Sophia)
8 - Miitopia (again, more Miis)
9 - Bravely Default (Note: made by third party Silicon Studio)
10 - Rhythm Heaven Megamix

Last, on second though I might have missed the Paper Mario titles. I was skim-reading through the list, saw Mario, and skipped over them. Just know that all of them would have been included if I were thinking and separating out Mario from Paper Mario, if you feel like it.

Thoughts in Spoilers Below.

Spoiler

You can see where some of the thoughs that Nintendo is "running out" is coming from looking at this list. While I have no problem with smaller franchises getting some love, the list of best selling series is very low, with a few notable outliers, and many of those outliers being series that don't naturally lend themselves to fighters. The only exception is the Switch, which is understandable considering most of them were probably released after the DLC has been chosen.

The most notable franchies not from the Switch are as follows:

Exitebike - Probably one of the retros on everyone's minds of those who speculate. While the series has had some limited attempts at revival and moving into other vehicles, the original and it's sequel are still some of the best regarded of the time. They are always going to be up for consideration, and it's just the slot's unpredictable nature that makes it hard for them to get in.

Pilotwings - Ops, I forgot the 64 version on my old list. Regardless, it's one of Nintendo's go-to franchises when they want to show off their new hardware. It's a matter of time, I feel.

Wresling - Probably the only generic "Sports" title on the NES that could work, due to using actual characters. The problem is if Incineroar makes them redundant.

Big Brain Academy - I'm giving him an edge over Brain age due to Dr. Lobe being more "fictional" than that professor from Brain Age. Still, he could get in as a big "surprise" character... assuming that he can make it work.

Golden Sun - While Dark Dawn did lead to a decline for the series, the original two games are certainly still fondly remembered and sold well. One good revival is all it takes for the series to be a major contender.

Rhythm Heaven - We know they were considered at one point, and Megamix at least sold well. However, the franchise could be seen as in jeopardy, due to one of the producers being a singer who after Megamix was released had throat surgery that made him lose his voice, which is especally problematic for a music and rhythm based game! Still, if it can survive that, it's quite likely someone will get in.

Nintendogs - I simply don't think the series can work. The animals are too realistic, and them getting hit would result in animal cruelty complaints.

I'm not talking about the Switch due to the fact that there are obvious frontrunners, who simply didn't get in because they're too new. However, Ring Fit Adventure and Astrial Chain are the clear winners here, and Labo deserves a mention in the surprise slot (please let it be the Giant Robot...).

 

[chocolatejr9]

I'm back, with the list of games listed on Wikipedia as best sellers (defined as selling at least a million units) that Nintendo has published on handhelds that do not have a playable represetntative.

Starting with the GB, it seems like their are a lot of ports from the NES. Most of these should be familur if saw my last list. Here they are, in order (again skipping ones that are just plain games like Golf or a Mahjong title):

1 - Tetris
2 - F-1 Race
3 - Alleyway
4 - Tetris DX
5 - Tetris 2
6 - Solar Striker (Note: Was a joint production with Minakuchi Engineering, a third party who seems to no longer exist)
7 - Qix (Note: Was a port of a game originally created by Taito)
8 - Super R.C. Pro-Am (Note: Again, game was made by Rare)
9 - Wave Race
10 - Space Invaders (Note: Port of a game originally by Taito)
11 - James Bond 007 (Note: Was made by now defuct third party Saffire)

Moving into the GBA, the only game Nintendo has published that doesn't have a playable character would be Golden Sun and it's sequal, Golden Sun: The Lost Age.

For the DS era:

1 - Nintendogs (all versions counted as one)
2 - Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day!
3 - Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day!
4 - Big Brain Academy
5 - English Training: Have Fun Improving Your Skills! (…seriously, this was a best seller? This doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. At least this counts as an appearance for someone as it is taught by Barbra the Bat...)
6 - Tomodachi Collection (This would probably count as something for the Miis, though)
7 - Flash Focus: Vision Training in Minutes a Day
8 - Rhythm Heaven
9 - Style Savvy (Note: Was produced by syn Sophia, who seems to be a third party that Nintendo seems to work occasionally with)
10 - Tetris DS
11 - Clubhouse Games
12 - Art Academy (Note: Joint produciton between Headstrong Games)
13 - Personal Trainer: Cooking
14 - Common Sense Training (Note: Produced by HAL)
15 - Inazuma Eleven: Firestorm and Blizzard (Note: developed by Level-5)

While that's the last of the DS, I'd feel remis to not mention that Nintendo published many Level-5 games for the World on the DS during that era, including 4 Professor Layton games.

Last but not least is the 3DS era:

1 - Yo-kai Watch 2 (Note: Series is produced by Level-5)
2 - Tomodachi Life (Again, maybe the Miis count for this)
3 - Nintendogs + Cats
4 - Yo-kai Watch
5 - Yo-kai Watch Blasters: Red Cat Corps and White Dog Squad
6 - Lego City Undercover: The Chase Begins (I don't have to say anyting about this, though, right?)
7 - Style Savvy: Trendsetters (Note; Again, was produced by syn Sophia)
8 - Miitopia (again, more Miis)
9 - Bravely Default (Note: made by third party Silicon Studio)
10 - Rhythm Heaven Megamix

Last, on second though I might have missed the Paper Mario titles. I was skim-reading through the list, saw Mario, and skipped over them. Just know that all of them would have been included if I were thinking and separating out Mario from Paper Mario, if you feel like it.

Thoughts in Spoilers Below.

Spoiler

You can see where some of the thoughs that Nintendo is "running out" is coming from looking at this list. While I have no problem with smaller franchises getting some love, the list of best selling series is very low, with a few notable outliers, and many of those outliers being series that don't naturally lend themselves to fighters. The only exception is the Switch, which is understandable considering most of them were probably released after the DLC has been chosen.

The most notable franchies not from the Switch are as follows:

Exitebike - Probably one of the retros on everyone's minds of those who speculate. While the series has had some limited attempts at revival and moving into other vehicles, the original and it's sequel are still some of the best regarded of the time. They are always going to be up for consideration, and it's just the slot's unpredictable nature that makes it hard for them to get in.

Pilotwings - Ops, I forgot the 64 version on my old list. Regardless, it's one of Nintendo's go-to franchises when they want to show off their new hardware. It's a matter of time, I feel.

Wresling - Probably the only generic "Sports" title on the NES that could work, due to using actual characters. The problem is if Incineroar makes them redundant.

Big Brain Academy - I'm giving him an edge over Brain age due to Dr. Lobe being more "fictional" than that professor from Brain Age. Still, he could get in as a big "surprise" character... assuming that he can make it work.

Golden Sun - While Dark Dawn did lead to a decline for the series, the original two games are certainly still fondly remembered and sold well. One good revival is all it takes for the series to be a major contender.

Rhythm Heaven - We know they were considered at one point, and Megamix at least sold well. However, the franchise could be seen as in jeopardy, due to one of the producers being a singer who after Megamix was released had throat surgery that made him lose his voice, which is especally problematic for a music and rhythm based game! Still, if it can survive that, it's quite likely someone will get in.

Nintendogs - I simply don't think the series can work. The animals are too realistic, and them getting hit would result in animal cruelty complaints.

I'm not talking about the Switch due to the fact that there are obvious frontrunners, who simply didn't get in because they're too new. However, Ring Fit Adventure and Astrial Chain are the clear winners here, and Labo deserves a mention in the surprise slot (please let it be the Giant Robot...).

So what you're saying is, Yo-kai Watch has a chance?

 

[fogbadge]

So what you're saying is, Yo-kai Watch has a chance?

if only

 

[dream1ng]

i assumed it was cause theyve been making nothing but nintendo games for ages

No it was because they wanted to lock down the talent rather than lose them.

Many devs have been making Nintendo games for even longer than NLG and aren't owned by Nintendo.

I assumed that Nintendo acquired Next Level Games as it is known just to expand as a company.

Nintendo doesn't buy companies just to get bigger. They typically prefer doing that internally, which is why they're constructing a whole new building to grow EPD.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I'm back, with the list of games listed on Wikipedia as best sellers (defined as selling at least a million units) that Nintendo has published on handhelds that do not have a playable represetntative.

Starting with the GB, it seems like their are a lot of ports from the NES. Most of these should be familur if saw my last list. Here they are, in order (again skipping ones that are just plain games like Golf or a Mahjong title):

1 - Tetris
2 - F-1 Race
3 - Alleyway
4 - Tetris DX
5 - Tetris 2
6 - Solar Striker (Note: Was a joint production with Minakuchi Engineering, a third party who seems to no longer exist)
7 - Qix (Note: Was a port of a game originally created by Taito)
8 - Super R.C. Pro-Am (Note: Again, game was made by Rare)
9 - Wave Race
10 - Space Invaders (Note: Port of a game originally by Taito)
11 - James Bond 007 (Note: Was made by now defuct third party Saffire)

Moving into the GBA, the only game Nintendo has published that doesn't have a playable character would be Golden Sun and it's sequal, Golden Sun: The Lost Age.

For the DS era:

1 - Nintendogs (all versions counted as one)
2 - Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day!
3 - Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day!
4 - Big Brain Academy
5 - English Training: Have Fun Improving Your Skills! (…seriously, this was a best seller? This doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. At least this counts as an appearance for someone as it is taught by Barbra the Bat...)
6 - Tomodachi Collection (This would probably count as something for the Miis, though)
7 - Flash Focus: Vision Training in Minutes a Day
8 - Rhythm Heaven
9 - Style Savvy (Note: Was produced by syn Sophia, who seems to be a third party that Nintendo seems to work occasionally with)
10 - Tetris DS
11 - Clubhouse Games
12 - Art Academy (Note: Joint produciton between Headstrong Games)
13 - Personal Trainer: Cooking
14 - Common Sense Training (Note: Produced by HAL)
15 - Inazuma Eleven: Firestorm and Blizzard (Note: developed by Level-5)

While that's the last of the DS, I'd feel remis to not mention that Nintendo published many Level-5 games for the World on the DS during that era, including 4 Professor Layton games.

Last but not least is the 3DS era:

1 - Yo-kai Watch 2 (Note: Series is produced by Level-5)
2 - Tomodachi Life (Again, maybe the Miis count for this)
3 - Nintendogs + Cats
4 - Yo-kai Watch
5 - Yo-kai Watch Blasters: Red Cat Corps and White Dog Squad
6 - Lego City Undercover: The Chase Begins (I don't have to say anyting about this, though, right?)
7 - Style Savvy: Trendsetters (Note; Again, was produced by syn Sophia)
8 - Miitopia (again, more Miis)
9 - Bravely Default (Note: made by third party Silicon Studio)
10 - Rhythm Heaven Megamix

Last, on second though I might have missed the Paper Mario titles. I was skim-reading through the list, saw Mario, and skipped over them. Just know that all of them would have been included if I were thinking and separating out Mario from Paper Mario, if you feel like it.

Thoughts in Spoilers Below.

Spoiler

You can see where some of the thoughs that Nintendo is "running out" is coming from looking at this list. While I have no problem with smaller franchises getting some love, the list of best selling series is very low, with a few notable outliers, and many of those outliers being series that don't naturally lend themselves to fighters. The only exception is the Switch, which is understandable considering most of them were probably released after the DLC has been chosen.

The most notable franchies not from the Switch are as follows:

Exitebike - Probably one of the retros on everyone's minds of those who speculate. While the series has had some limited attempts at revival and moving into other vehicles, the original and it's sequel are still some of the best regarded of the time. They are always going to be up for consideration, and it's just the slot's unpredictable nature that makes it hard for them to get in.

Pilotwings - Ops, I forgot the 64 version on my old list. Regardless, it's one of Nintendo's go-to franchises when they want to show off their new hardware. It's a matter of time, I feel.

Wresling - Probably the only generic "Sports" title on the NES that could work, due to using actual characters. The problem is if Incineroar makes them redundant.

Big Brain Academy - I'm giving him an edge over Brain age due to Dr. Lobe being more "fictional" than that professor from Brain Age. Still, he could get in as a big "surprise" character... assuming that he can make it work.

Golden Sun - While Dark Dawn did lead to a decline for the series, the original two games are certainly still fondly remembered and sold well. One good revival is all it takes for the series to be a major contender.

Rhythm Heaven - We know they were considered at one point, and Megamix at least sold well. However, the franchise could be seen as in jeopardy, due to one of the producers being a singer who after Megamix was released had throat surgery that made him lose his voice, which is especally problematic for a music and rhythm based game! Still, if it can survive that, it's quite likely someone will get in.

Nintendogs - I simply don't think the series can work. The animals are too realistic, and them getting hit would result in animal cruelty complaints.

I'm not talking about the Switch due to the fact that there are obvious frontrunners, who simply didn't get in because they're too new. However, Ring Fit Adventure and Astrial Chain are the clear winners here, and Labo deserves a mention in the surprise slot (please let it be the Giant Robot...).

So to summarize, Golden Sun, Astral Chain, Ring Fit Adventure and Rhythm Haven are most likely to get a new series newcomer ? Could get behind most, especially Golden Sun being a longtime Isaac supporter and fan of the games.

 

[HyperSomari64]

• Nintendo is a shareholder for Kadokawa.
• "Does that mean that Daimajin, Gamera, and Kirito can join Smash?"

 

[fogbadge]

No it was because they wanted to lock down the talent rather than lose them.

Many devs have been making Nintendo games for even longer than NLG and aren't owned by Nintendo.

well there is a bit of difference, for example while its true that the likes of game freak, intelligent systems and hal make mostly nintendo games they were all started by those companies in the first place where as next level has been mostly working on series that nintendo started themselves. in other words the others are doing their own thing while next level wasnt

 

[dream1ng]

well there is a bit of difference, for example while its true that the likes of game freak, intelligent systems and hal make mostly nintendo games they were all started by those companies in the first place where as next level has been mostly working on series that nintendo started themselves. in other words the others are doing their own thing while next level wasnt

That seems like a distinction that, if not completely arbitrary, would seemingly only make the others the favorable prospects for acquisition, considering Nintendo could gain full control of the shared IP, of which there is none with NLG. From an IP standpoint, there's nothing to lose by breaking ties with NLG.

But that wasn't the factor in the acquisition, it was to retain NLG because they were looking to sell, because Nintendo clearly valued the talent and capabilities of the developer.

 

[fogbadge]

That seems like a distinction that, if not completely arbitrary, would seemingly only make the others the favorable prospects for acquisition, considering Nintendo could gain full control of the shared IP, of which there is none with NLG. From an IP standpoint, there's nothing to lose by breaking ties with NLG.

But that wasn't the factor in the acquisition, it was to retain NLG because they were looking to sell, because Nintendo clearly valued the talent and capabilities of the developer.

point was Nintendo has different relationships with these companies and you can’t expect the same things to be applied in the same way for all of them

 

[dream1ng]

point was Nintendo has different relationships with these companies and you can’t expect the same things to be applied in the same way for all of them

I think the point was that Nintendo (as well as other companies) do buy devs based on the talent. Though for other companies, they're shifting towards consolidating IP.

 

[Chuderz]

I figured when the game division of Warner Bros pulled out of their sales pitch that they were doing it to gauge interest and to maybe potentially leverage their position a bit better in the future. Back then the sale was going to be around 4-5 billion dollars but post-acquisition of Activision-Blizzard and the subsequent acquisition frenzy afterward I could see that number going up now.

I don't see Microsoft being able to pull off any big purchases during the process of acquiring Activision-Blizzard though. I think they're way too invested in that happening to let anything get in the way of that and another multi-billion dollar purchase would just invite more scrutiny.

 

[SPEN18]

I'm back, with the list of games listed on Wikipedia as best sellers (defined as selling at least a million units) that Nintendo has published on handhelds that do not have a playable represetntative.

Starting with the GB, it seems like their are a lot of ports from the NES. Most of these should be familur if saw my last list. Here they are, in order (again skipping ones that are just plain games like Golf or a Mahjong title):

1 - Tetris
2 - F-1 Race
3 - Alleyway
4 - Tetris DX
5 - Tetris 2
6 - Solar Striker (Note: Was a joint production with Minakuchi Engineering, a third party who seems to no longer exist)
7 - Qix (Note: Was a port of a game originally created by Taito)
8 - Super R.C. Pro-Am (Note: Again, game was made by Rare)
9 - Wave Race
10 - Space Invaders (Note: Port of a game originally by Taito)
11 - James Bond 007 (Note: Was made by now defuct third party Saffire)

Moving into the GBA, the only game Nintendo has published that doesn't have a playable character would be Golden Sun and it's sequal, Golden Sun: The Lost Age.

For the DS era:

1 - Nintendogs (all versions counted as one)
2 - Brain Age: Train Your Brain in Minutes a Day!
3 - Brain Age 2: More Training in Minutes a Day!
4 - Big Brain Academy
5 - English Training: Have Fun Improving Your Skills! (…seriously, this was a best seller? This doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. At least this counts as an appearance for someone as it is taught by Barbra the Bat...)
6 - Tomodachi Collection (This would probably count as something for the Miis, though)
7 - Flash Focus: Vision Training in Minutes a Day
8 - Rhythm Heaven
9 - Style Savvy (Note: Was produced by syn Sophia, who seems to be a third party that Nintendo seems to work occasionally with)
10 - Tetris DS
11 - Clubhouse Games
12 - Art Academy (Note: Joint produciton between Headstrong Games)
13 - Personal Trainer: Cooking
14 - Common Sense Training (Note: Produced by HAL)
15 - Inazuma Eleven: Firestorm and Blizzard (Note: developed by Level-5)

While that's the last of the DS, I'd feel remis to not mention that Nintendo published many Level-5 games for the World on the DS during that era, including 4 Professor Layton games.

Last but not least is the 3DS era:

1 - Yo-kai Watch 2 (Note: Series is produced by Level-5)
2 - Tomodachi Life (Again, maybe the Miis count for this)
3 - Nintendogs + Cats
4 - Yo-kai Watch
5 - Yo-kai Watch Blasters: Red Cat Corps and White Dog Squad
6 - Lego City Undercover: The Chase Begins (I don't have to say anyting about this, though, right?)
7 - Style Savvy: Trendsetters (Note; Again, was produced by syn Sophia)
8 - Miitopia (again, more Miis)
9 - Bravely Default (Note: made by third party Silicon Studio)
10 - Rhythm Heaven Megamix

Last, on second though I might have missed the Paper Mario titles. I was skim-reading through the list, saw Mario, and skipped over them. Just know that all of them would have been included if I were thinking and separating out Mario from Paper Mario, if you feel like it.

Thoughts in Spoilers Below.

Spoiler

You can see where some of the thoughs that Nintendo is "running out" is coming from looking at this list. While I have no problem with smaller franchises getting some love, the list of best selling series is very low, with a few notable outliers, and many of those outliers being series that don't naturally lend themselves to fighters. The only exception is the Switch, which is understandable considering most of them were probably released after the DLC has been chosen.

The most notable franchies not from the Switch are as follows:

Exitebike - Probably one of the retros on everyone's minds of those who speculate. While the series has had some limited attempts at revival and moving into other vehicles, the original and it's sequel are still some of the best regarded of the time. They are always going to be up for consideration, and it's just the slot's unpredictable nature that makes it hard for them to get in.

Pilotwings - Ops, I forgot the 64 version on my old list. Regardless, it's one of Nintendo's go-to franchises when they want to show off their new hardware. It's a matter of time, I feel.

Wresling - Probably the only generic "Sports" title on the NES that could work, due to using actual characters. The problem is if Incineroar makes them redundant.

Big Brain Academy - I'm giving him an edge over Brain age due to Dr. Lobe being more "fictional" than that professor from Brain Age. Still, he could get in as a big "surprise" character... assuming that he can make it work.

Golden Sun - While Dark Dawn did lead to a decline for the series, the original two games are certainly still fondly remembered and sold well. One good revival is all it takes for the series to be a major contender.

Rhythm Heaven - We know they were considered at one point, and Megamix at least sold well. However, the franchise could be seen as in jeopardy, due to one of the producers being a singer who after Megamix was released had throat surgery that made him lose his voice, which is especally problematic for a music and rhythm based game! Still, if it can survive that, it's quite likely someone will get in.

Nintendogs - I simply don't think the series can work. The animals are too realistic, and them getting hit would result in animal cruelty complaints.

I'm not talking about the Switch due to the fact that there are obvious frontrunners, who simply didn't get in because they're too new. However, Ring Fit Adventure and Astrial Chain are the clear winners here, and Labo deserves a mention in the surprise slot (please let it be the Giant Robot...).

Nice to see!

On GB, there is expectedly not a lot. Unfortunately the GB Wave Race is probably not the thing that would push the series over the top...

The GBA results show why people want Golden Sun, at the very least.

DS has, actually, a lot, but mostly things that people wouldn't expect as a typical Smash fighter...Brain Age, Nintendogs, and Art Academy have ATs, Rhythm Heaven has been on the radar since 4, and Style Savvy has had modest speculation also over the years.

3DS is largely repeats of things from above, but it does help to have a 1mil+ seller on more than one platform. Credit where credit is due.
Given how little Yo-Kai Watch and Layton have gotten in Smash thus far (basically nothing), I think it's safe to say that Nintendo doesn't really consider them as their own games, even the ones they published internationally.

--

And yeah you can see why some would think Nintendo is "running out" of characters if they base their analysis on this and this alone, but remember this process leaves out completely characters from franchises already represented in Smash. The Skull Kids, Dixies, and Waluigis of the world are still very much alive in popularity. Characters from existing series is still a very deep pool. And it's not like potential new franchises are limited completely to this list...series like Advance Wars, Chibi-Robo, Sin & Punishment, Starfy, Custom Robo, and more have limited chances due to not ever being 1mil+ sellers, but have other things going for them. Even though the chances are very low, if they wanted to go for a "surprise" new franchise it's not like the choice would end up being boring.

You can do the same thing on Metacritic to get a different set of results...although you probably have to make a cutoff point somewhere, maybe at a score of like 80 or 75 or something. Review scores are probably less indicative of chances than sales overall, but if you want something to do...

Lastly, I think you're underselling the franchises that do appear on these lists. You have a highly demanded franchise (Golden Sun); a franchise that presumably almost got in once (Rhythm Heaven); an NES-era retro rep that is not even a drop off from previous such reps (Excitebike); and a handful of franchises that don't have such an obvious/readymade character and moveset but could conceivably make it as a "surprise" choice and still be justifiable almost on sales alone. This is more than enough to fill the backend of a newcomer crop alongside the usual selection of recent picks, further reps for existing franchises, 1-2 "popularity" reps outside of Golden Sun, and 1-2 unique third parties.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Am pretty confident that if we see the return of Golden Sun (outside of the leaked GBA app for Switch) we'll see Isaac, with the potential of having Felix as his Echo.

But yeah , the additional newcomers of established franchises are up there too. I think Ultimate ignored them a bit too much in favor of the biggest popular additions (of which some where K.Rool and Ridley, who where felt as the biggest missing links of DK and Metroid).

 

[UberPyro64]

Embracer Group has entered into an agreement to acquire studios Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Square Enix Montréal, & a catalogue of IPs including Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, Thief, Legacy of Kain & more than 50 back-catalogue games from Square Enix Holdings https://t.co/sqrQdav7Be

— Wario64 (@Wario64) May 2, 2022

Well, this changes a few things. Some characters and franchises that were previously owned by Square Enix, are now owned by Embracer Group. Most notably, for Smash speculation, Lara Croft.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

Embracer Group has entered into an agreement to acquire studios Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Square Enix Montréal, & a catalogue of IPs including Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, Thief, Legacy of Kain & more than 50 back-catalogue games from Square Enix Holdings https://t.co/sqrQdav7Be

— Wario64 (@Wario64) May 2, 2022

Well, this changes a few things. Some characters and franchises that were previously owned by Square Enix, are now owned by Embracer Group. Most notably, for Smash speculation, Lara Croft.

That's such a small sum for 3 studios and big ip such as Tomb raider and Deus ex. Embracer group paid only 300 millions for that. For comparaison, in 2002 Microsoft bought Rare alone for 345 millions. Mojang alone in 2014 was 2.5 Billions.

As for Smash, I don't think it change too much Lara Croft chances. Crystal dynamics always had partial rights to Tomb raider, so if Smash wanted the character they had to deal with a western studios either way even with Square.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Embracer Group has entered into an agreement to acquire studios Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Square Enix Montréal, & a catalogue of IPs including Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, Thief, Legacy of Kain & more than 50 back-catalogue games from Square Enix Holdings https://t.co/sqrQdav7Be

— Wario64 (@Wario64) May 2, 2022

Well, this changes a few things. Some characters and franchises that were previously owned by Square Enix, are now owned by Embracer Group. Most notably, for Smash speculation, Lara Croft.

Well, so much for Lara being the next Square rep...

 

[RileyXY1]

Embracer Group has entered into an agreement to acquire studios Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Square Enix Montréal, & a catalogue of IPs including Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, Thief, Legacy of Kain & more than 50 back-catalogue games from Square Enix Holdings https://t.co/sqrQdav7Be

— Wario64 (@Wario64) May 2, 2022

Well, this changes a few things. Some characters and franchises that were previously owned by Square Enix, are now owned by Embracer Group. Most notably, for Smash speculation, Lara Croft.

Embracer Group is already becoming one of the biggest entertainment conglomerates. They mostly operate in the video game industry, but they have stepped outside of it, as they also have acquired Dark Horse Comics giving them the rights to franchises like the 300, Hellboy, the Mask, and more.

 

[fogbadge]

Given how little Yo-Kai Watch and Layton have gotten in Smash thus far (basically nothing), I think it's safe to say that Nintendo doesn't really consider them as their own games, even the ones they published internationally.

its not basically nothing, it is nothing

I think the point was that Nintendo (as well as other companies) do buy devs based on the talent. Though for other companies, they're shifting towards consolidating IP.

you're telling me what my point was?

 

[Dinoman96]

3DS is largely repeats of things from above, but it does help to have a 1mil+ seller on more than one platform. Credit where credit is due.
Given how little Yo-Kai Watch and Layton have gotten in Smash thus far (basically nothing), I think it's safe to say that Nintendo doesn't really consider them as their own games, even the ones they published internationally.

Well, yeah. That's because they're owned by Level 5.

Third party games that are published by Nintendo outside of Japan don't really get a whole ton of recognition in Smash tbh, even something like Hyrule Warriors (which is published by Koei Tecmo in Japan) had to wait until post-release to get some spirits for AOC.

Inversely, third party games that were published by Nintendo in Japan are more likely to get noticed. Like Rayman Legends or Culdcept.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Speaking of acquisitions, did anybody else know that SNK got bought by some prince from Saudi Arabia? Does that retroactively make Terry a Saudi Arabian rep?

 

[Geno Boost]

Speaking of acquisitions, did anybody else know that SNK got bought by some prince from Saudi Arabia? Does that retroactively make Terry a Saudi Arabian rep?

Nah all SNK characters origin are still japan (maybe some Chinese) so it doesn’t change
Unless if there is SNK character that is created by saudi

 

[Gengar84]

So to summarize, Golden Sun, Astral Chain, Ring Fit Adventure and Rhythm Haven are most likely to get a new series newcomer ? Could get behind most, especially Golden Sun being a longtime Isaac supporter and fan of the games.

Yeah, both Golden Sun and Astral Chain would make for awesome Smash reps. Both series have amazing soundtracks and protagonists with very unique abilities that could translate to really cool fighters. I’d love for each series to eventually get a second character like Felix, Saturos, or Jena Anderson in future Smash games.

 

[Geno Boost]

Lara not being owned by Square-enix anymore means Geno has more chance to become the next Square rep in the next smash game

 

[Gengar84]

Lara not being owned by Square-enix anymore means Geno has more chance to become the next Square rep in the next smash game

Wait, what? I haven’t been following this thread. When did this happen?

 

[UberPyro64]

Wait, what? I haven’t been following this thread. When did this happen?

Square Enix sold most of its western developers and franchises to Embracer Group. Including Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, Gex, Legacy of Kain, Thief, and others.

They still own Just Cause, Life is Strange, and Outriders, though.

 

[Gengar84]

Square Enix sold most of its western developers and franchises to Embracer Group. Including Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, Gex, Legacy of Kain, Thief, and others.

They still own Just Cause, Life is Strange, and Outriders, though.

That’s crazy. Maybe that means they’ll finally do something with the Legacy of Kain series again. I loved those games but Square-Enix seemed to have no interest in the IP.

 

[Geno Boost]

$299 million is for Gex IP alone

 

[chocolatejr9]

Square Enix sold most of its western developers and franchises to Embracer Group. Including Tomb Raider, Deus Ex, Gex, Legacy of Kain, Thief, and others.

They still own Just Cause, Life is Strange, and Outriders, though.

Ah yes, the most deserving Square Enix rep:

Max Caulfield.

 

[Gengar84]

$299 million is for Gex IP alone

I don’t know what kind of world I’m living in lol. Gex hasn’t been relevant in forever. How is that IP so expensive? Either way, this is probably a win win for everyone involved. Square-Enix wasn’t really making use of a lot of their western IP so it’s better to let another developer take them over and maybe give us a chance of seeing those franchises return.

What I really want to see is a Legacy of Kain and Darksiders crossover game. That has almost no chance of actually happening but I think the characters from both series are awesome and would actually mesh really well in a single game.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I don’t know what kind of world I’m living in lol. Gex hasn’t been relevant in forever. How is that IP so expensive? Either way, this is probably a win win for everyone involved. Square-Enix wasn’t really making use of a lot of their western IP so it’s better to let another developer take them over and maybe give us a chance of seeing those franchises return.

What I really want to see is a Legacy of Kain and Darksiders crossover game. That has almost no chance of actually happening but I think the characters from both series are awesome and would actually mesh really well in a single game.

I'm pretty sure they were joking about the Gex thing, given he's a meme...

 

[Gengar84]

I'm pretty sure they were joking about the Gex thing, given he's a meme...

That would make sense.

 

[SPEN18]

its not basically nothing, it is nothing

I didn't remember if there was like a singular sticker or something and didn't think it was worth looking up thoroughly.

Third party games that are published by Nintendo outside of Japan don't really get a whole ton of recognition in Smash tbh, even something like Hyrule Warriors (which is published by Koei Tecmo in Japan) had to wait until post-release to get some spirits for AOC.

Inversely, third party games that were published by Nintendo in Japan are more likely to get noticed.

Yeah this was the basic point I was trying to make, just not super effectively. For some reason I missed the clear point that they're not Nintendo-owned.

Despite not being owned by Nintendo, I don't think there would be much issue in getting, say, Layton, to appear in some form if that's what they wanted, but we've not seen any motivation to do that.

--

Thanks to both for the corrections.

 

[PeridotGX]

I think Embracer getting a character in the next Smash game is somewhere between "likely" and "a sure thing". People talk about Microsoft and Sony being the big players in the purchasing game, and they are, but Embracer is catching up to them fast. Instead of going for big studios, they're picking up dead, dying, and newborn studios and nursing them (and their IP) back to life. And while Sony and Microsoft have 20-30 studios a piece, Embracer has over 100 (so far).

Embracer Group - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I've only heard of a handful of them, and most of them don't even have a wikipedia page, but that's still an massive number. And Embracer only started in 2017, they're still in the early phase. Once these studios start releasing their games, things are going to go crazy. We have a new Timesplitters in development, a new Tomb Raider, a sequel to Battle for Bikini Bottom, and that's just off the top of my head. With the money coming in from their big games, they'll be able to give the smaller studios a bigger budget, hopefully giving them more attention, further bettering the company. Embracer isn't too relevant now, but I fully expect them to be massive in the next decade.

When it comes to a smash character, Lara Croft is the first character that comes to mind, and for obvious reasons. There's also Sergent Cortez, the Borderlands guy, and a few other well established characters. But since they have yet to fully mature, I think their biggest IPs might not yet exist, or are languishing in obscurity. Even if 1% of their smaller output is a hit, with 115+ studios that's at least one game that gets a big boost.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

The Eidos sale does leave me curious how significant a shift in strategy by Square Enix might be. Part of the latter's issue in chasing big Western money is that for every big success (current FF XIV) they achieve, they've also have AAA releases with major losses (initial version of FF XIV and Avengers), or quality ones that simply ended up underperforming (Guardians of the Galaxy). That they were willing to sell semi-prominent IP's for that low a price might very well suggest a hard pivot into focusing on core titles and/or the Japanese market again on top of their investments into blockchain tech.

Honestly, the prudent thing by SE for the immediate future might be putting out even more modestly budgeted titles for Switch geared towards the Japan market. Even if the sales in the West aren't huge, Nintendo has such domination of the scene back home that the former could make their money back and then some if it's the right game. What Capcom did with MH Rise and Konami's done with numerous games, could easily be pulled off by Square given their library. There's no such thing as purely easy money in gaming, but a timed exclusive Kingdom Hearts or Dragon Quest release for Switch in Japan would get pretty close.