Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[dream1ng]

I’m a bit hopeful we’ll be able to keep Sephiroth around. The Final Fantasy VII remakes are still ongoing so he and Cloud will remain relevant for quite some time. If they’re going to go through the licensing effort to bring Cloud back, I imagine it wouldn’t be that difficult to bring back Sephiroth as well.

Licensing difficulties aren't likely to be the reason any of the third-parties are cut.* There's no reason to believe any of the companies have had a change of heart regarding cooperation. It'll presumably come down to Nintendo/Sakurai and simply who gets priority.

Presumably at some point in development they will approach a third-party and re-license only some of their existing vets, whether Square or someone else.

Sephiroth just seems one of the more superfluous, despite being Sephiroth. If he gets cut, his series will still remain represented, which isn't something any of the other IPs can claim, unless they cut an echo. Or swap out the characters - which, outside of maybe Persona, seems remote.

Though in his favor is probably the fact that he sold very well. However if sales factor into determining who sticks around, that's not something Sakurai is ever likely to disclose, outside of possible vague allusions.

*Edit: from the finished game, not necessarily from next game's base

 

[Hadokeyblade]

if bamco helps develop the next smash i dont see Kazuya and Pacman getting cut, especially since relatively speaking Kazuya just joined.

 

[Greenhorne Ethan]

I would hope Steve stays because I really liked seeing such authentic vanilla Minecraft representation in something. Minecraft is just cool to have.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I don't see Minecraft getting cut just because it's Minecraft, i feel like when it comes time to bring the third parties back these four will take as much priority as Sonic.

 

[Dukefire]

if bamco helps develop the next smash i dont see Kazuya and Pacman getting cut, especially since relatively speaking Kazuya just joined.

Plus, don't forget that elements from Tekken were implemented in Ultimate. Other then Kazuya bring a piece of tekken once he joined.

 

[dream1ng]

if bamco helps develop the next smash i dont see Kazuya and Pacman getting cut, especially since relatively speaking Kazuya just joined.

I feel like people expecting Namco to get special treatment are kind of overlooking how they very much did not receive that at all during Ultimate. They didn't receive a single new AT (Sega and Capcom getting three, Konami two) or item. Capcom and Konami also receiving bosses. It wasn't until the penultimate character Namco even got a second fighter; Sega, Capcom, Square and Konami already being at three.

They are the only playable third-party (outside of Disney) to not receive a single new Mii costume.

Their involvement did probably fast track Pac-Man in 4, but since then they're basically just the contracted dev and treated as such.

I would argue other than maybe Capcom, Namco received the least preferential treatment in Ultimate.

 

[Greenhorne Ethan]

I feel like people expecting Namco to get special treatment are kind of overlooking how they very much did not receive that at all during Ultimate. They didn't receive a single new AT (Sega and Capcom getting three, Konami two) or item. Capcom and Konami also receiving bosses. It wasn't until the penultimate character Namco even got a second fighter; Sega, Capcom, Square and Konami already being at three.

They are the only playable third-party (outside of Disney) to not receive a single new Mii costume.

Their involvement did probably fast track Pac-Man in 4, but since then they're basically just the contracted dev and treated as such.

I would argue other than maybe Capcom, Namco received the least preferential treatment in Ultimate.

They did get some new music for Pac-Land, at least. I kinda wish we got more classic Namco characters as spirits, kinda like the Smash Run enemies.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

I feel like people expecting Namco to get special treatment are kind of overlooking how they very much did not receive that at all during Ultimate. They didn't receive a single new AT (Sega and Capcom getting three, Konami two) or item. Capcom and Konami also receiving bosses. It wasn't until the penultimate character Namco even got a second fighter; Sega, Capcom, Square and Konami already being at three.

They are the only playable third-party (outside of Disney) to not receive a single new Mii costume.

Their involvement did probably fast track Pac-Man in 4, but since then they're basically just the contracted dev and treated as such.

I would argue other than maybe Capcom, Namco received the least preferential treatment in Ultimate.

You can even argue that they're the only company who lost major content through the Orbital Gate Assault stage going from 4 to Ultimate, depending on how you view Star Fox Assault, a game from a Nintendo IP developed by Namco.

Sure, it's a Nintendo thing, but Namco made it.

 

[Greenhorne Ethan]

You can even argue that they're the only company who lost major content through the Orbital Gate Assault stage going from 4 to Ultimate, depending on how you view Star Fox Assault, a game from a Nintendo IP developed by Namco.

Sure, it's a Nintendo thing, but Namco made it.

I miss that stage so much, it was crazy.

Also, speaking of Disney Mii costumes, surely they could've worked something out with Spectrobes if they really wanted to.

 

[dream1ng]

You can even argue that they're the only company who lost major content through the Orbital Gate Assault stage going from 4 to Ultimate, depending on how you view Star Fox Assault, a game from a Nintendo IP developed by Namco.

I would say a better example is Pac-Maze. I get Namco made Assault but it'd be a little weird to call like, Port Town Aero Dive a Sega stage.

I understand why both those stages were cut, I don't think either is indicative of deliberately poor treatment towards Namco, but it is an unfortunate coincidence.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

The problem about the third-parties is that there is very little argument in favor of the vast majority of them other than "they're iconic"

The only one who has more is Sonic due to being the only one to have more than one Smash appearance outside of Ultimate (have to specify since the guests in Smash 4 have a big asterisk on them due to Ultimate being "Everyone is Here!"), making him consistent enough that he's possibly the most likely to return in future games going forward.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I feel like people expecting Namco to get special treatment are kind of overlooking how they very much did not receive that at all during Ultimate. They didn't receive a single new AT (Sega and Capcom getting three, Konami two) or item. Capcom and Konami also receiving bosses. It wasn't until the penultimate character Namco even got a second fighter; Sega, Capcom, Square and Konami already being at three.

They are the only playable third-party (outside of Disney) to not receive a single new Mii costume.

Their involvement did probably fast track Pac-Man in 4, but since then they're basically just the contracted dev and treated as such.

I would argue other than maybe Capcom, Namco received the least preferential treatment in Ultimate.

I mean I don't know that it's really "special treatment" so much as "the guys helping make this game own these characters, presumably it'd be very easy to ask and keep them around if you're already working with them" lol

Like Pac-Man coming back is a no-brainer already in most peoples' opinion, so in that case why wouldn't you also ask for Kazuya?

For new characters sure, you could say that, since they didn't add anything Namco related to 4's DLC, Ultimate base game, or Fighters Pass 1, but in terms of just keeping the characters we already have, I don't see how that's special treatment as opposed to Namco just being very easy to ask since you're working alongside them lol

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I miss that stage so much, it was crazy.

Also, speaking of Disney Mii costumes, surely they could've worked something out with Spectrobes if they really wanted to.

Peak mii fighter concepts

 

[SPEN18]

While I tend to agree that limited resources and priority are going to play the biggest roles in any third party cuts, and both of those are handled by Nintendo/Sakurai, I'd like to just note that the licensing/negotiation aspect shouldn't be completely trivialized, either. Yes, it stands to reason that if a character was successfully negotiated before, then it's likely to be easier goings for future re-negotiations, pending continued good corporate relations; however, it's not as black-and-white as the company either being fully on-board or off-board. A company can still be willing to put their character in, but that's always pending an acceptable deal, and finer details in said agreement, like financial specifics, are likely to differ each time around. So again, while I tend to agree that many fans overemphasize the licensing issues relative to the impact of the resource calculus, both will play a role.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

The problem about the third-parties is that there is very little argument in favor of the vast majority of them other than "they're iconic"

The only one who has more is Sonic due to being the only one to have more than one Smash appearance outside of Ultimate (have to specify since the guests in Smash 4 have a big asterisk on them due to Ultimate being "Everyone is Here!"), making him consistent enough that he's possibly the most likely to return in future games going forward.

I feel like another problem is how we don’t even know how characters will be cut since Snake and Mewtwo are the only cut characters that aren’t clones or hardware limitations.

Mewtwo is time constraints while Snake was because Nintendo didn’t contact Konami.

Clones are generally the ones that get cut but it’s unlikely for echoes unless the whole concept gets removed.

 

[dream1ng]

Yeah the problem with arguing for any of the third-parties specifically is they all have great resumes (or are Bayonetta), so you more have to argue for criteria instead and see who fits it best. For lack of better direction, attendance, fan demand, and general prevalence/popularity seem like the best traits.

The third-parties from 4 typically fit two if not all three, so people seem to think they'll stick around, which I generally agree with, whether through DLC or base. Snake technically has as the same number of appearances, but with being cut, and now that so many other third-parties are there, I think he's lost the fan demand and has dubious attendance against the other second-timers - though still above Ult's newcomers.

For Ult, fan demand probably helps Banjo, Sora, and Simon. General prevalence/popularity probably helps Steve, Hero, and in theory Sephiroth - though his case is unique. Not that Tekken isn't big or that Persona hasn't gotten bigger, but Minecraft, DQ and FF are just in a league above them.

Thus my landing on Joker, Terry, Sephiroth and Kazuya as likeliest to be cut. It's not that any of the four don't "deserve" to be there - I just think the other options offer something more meaningful to how Smash might prioritize things. I think Simon kinda mirrors Kazuya in that while he's popular, Banjo and Sora are just more popular. So he'd probably be the next character I'd include.

And I guess Snake is a wildcard among wildcards. If and when Nintendo stops caring about Bayonetta is probably when she'll get cut too, tbh.

But I say all that with the caveat that everything here is so nebulous and unprecedented that literally everything I've predicted could end up being wrong, lol. Well almost everything. Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man ain't going nowhere.

 

[Noipoi]

Okay

Pokemon Legends Z-A

If Greninja gets a new Mega Evolution, do you think they’d change its Final Smash to reflect that? Or keep it as Ash Greninja?

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Okay

Pokemon Legends Z-A

If Greninja gets a new Mega Evolution, do you think they’d change its Final Smash to reflect that? Or keep it as Ash Greninja?

Probably change it and maybe make Ash-Greninja an alt like Spiky-eared Pichu, another variant lost to time.

 

[dream1ng]

Okay

Pokemon Legends Z-A

If Greninja gets a new Mega Evolution, do you think they’d change its Final Smash to reflect that? Or keep it as Ash Greninja?

If it's just a matter of changing the skin, sure. Anything more than that and it's probably too late. Unless Greninja doesn't show up til DLC.

 

[BuckleyTim]

I can understand the reasoning, but man I just can't see smash cutting 1 or even 2 of the "big three" of Japanese fighting games now that they're here. Like I guess you could swap out Terry for kyo, but even then...

Iirc the Ash-Greninja form was retconned to some degree by the new seasons of the anime? There was an XY flashback that just acts like the form never existed, and that might transfer to smash.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Okay

Pokemon Legends Z-A

If Greninja gets a new Mega Evolution, do you think they’d change its Final Smash to reflect that? Or keep it as Ash Greninja?

Yes because Ash-Greninja basically doesn't exist in the games anymore since Battle Bond got nerfed.

I could see it sticking around if it's too late to change it, but that's about it, and based on my opinions about when Smash started development, Sakurai and co probably already know about it if it does have one lol

 

[Thegameandwatch]

Okay

Pokemon Legends Z-A

If Greninja gets a new Mega Evolution, do you think they’d change its Final Smash to reflect that? Or keep it as Ash Greninja?

They will probably change it but that depends on when Smash 6 releases or if Greninja returns.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I can't picture Kazuya getting cut anyway. Tekken is one of Namco's biggest franchises, as well as one of the biggest fighting game franchises ever, and now it has a playable rep in Smash. After all that work to finally get a rep (even if it wasn't the original choice Heihachi), I don't see why they would just cut him out of the roster already.

 

[ninjahmos]

If Bandai Namco sticks around for the development of the next game (which they probably will), I still think Nightmare wouldn't be too far-fetched.

 

[BrawlX10]

Now, I'll share my guesses for the most likely cut/return Ultimate newcomer third-party characters for the base game.

Most Likely Returning: Steve & Banjo
Banjo is probably easy to bring back, as the IP might be inexpensive and the fighter is pretty straightforward. Steve is the Gen Z nostalgia pick and comes from the best-selling game ever. The only way I could see them being cut is if somehow Microsoft is stingy about including them in the base game.


Most Likely Cut:
Okay, this is tricky. Honestly, I think all newcomer 3rd-party characters have reasons to return, but I guess:

Sora? Only in the case that Disney doesn’t want him back in the base game. Otherwise, he’s almost certainly back. He’s probably a high priority.

Sephiroth? Maybe Square Enix wants him to be DLC if Cloud is a base game character, or they might choose to add another Square Enix DLC character instead, as they might have other priorities next time. However, Sephiroth is very popular among Smash players, so I think he’s likely to return as DLC at least, if not in the base game. But who knows?

 

[Hadokeyblade]

The problem about the third-parties is that there is very little argument in favor of the vast majority of them other than "they're iconic"

The only one who has more is Sonic due to being the only one to have more than one Smash appearance outside of Ultimate (have to specify since the guests in Smash 4 have a big asterisk on them due to Ultimate being "Everyone is Here!"), making him consistent enough that he's possibly the most likely to return in future games going forward.

Personally i think the Konami and Square enix ones are the most likely to be cut, with Sonic, Steve and the Capcom guys being most likely to stay.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I don't think Terry is as likely to be cut as people made it seems to be. First, SNK seems to be one of the easiest third party to negotiate with. Second, Fatal fury is getting a new game this year. If Terry could get in with no game in 25 years, surely he can come back with a new game, right?

In my opinion, I feel like the most likely third party to be cut are Sephiroth, Joker, Snake and Sora. Sora it's because Disney and I'm not sure if they can pull that off a second time, at least in base game (I think he has more chances as DLC again). Sephiroth I think it's just because they'll obviously put priority on Cloud, but he might still come back if Square is good with it and there's enough spot for it. Snake, well he was already cut in the past so there's precedent for it. And Joker, it's just that we already have FF and DQ (yeah I think Hero is very likely to come back personally) as third party jrpg rep, so I think Persona is going to get lower priority. Also I'd argue Persona is probably one of the least "iconic" of the third party franchise aside from Banjo and Bayonetta (not that Persona isn't big, but compare to the others it's a bit smaller).

 

[BrawlX10]

have to specify since the guests in Smash 4 have a big asterisk on them due to Ultimate being "Everyone is Here!"

Are 3rd party characters even considered "guests" anymore? genuinely asking lol.
Also yeah, "Everyone is here" kind of makes it hard to predict Smash 4 veterans and Ultimate veterans chances to returning, specially 3rdparty-wise as the only known 3rdparty cut is Snake...but that was back when we only had 2 of them.
I think it also depends of the direction of the next smash game....if they decide to double down even more on 3rdparties or not, for all we know it's 1st party characters that are more in risk and not let's say Sepiroth lol.

 

[BackseatSakurai]

I think 3rd parties should be prioritized, with a few caveats and complicated situations and exceptions, based on how directly associated with Nintendo they are - Banjo is, for all intents and purposes, culturally, a Nintendo character. Same goes for Mega Man & Simon, with their series being more or less something you're playing on a Nintendo console (modern rereleases and SOTN be damned). Sonic makes sense because of the SNES vs. Genesis / Mario vs. Sonic "moment" that made his inclusion a dream in the first place. Pac-Man probably transcends all of this criteria just by being Pac-Man (I wouldn't extend this to many others - Steve is probably the closest, being the modern version of this type of complete ubiquity).

Of course this gets super subjective in some cases. The "but it's about all of gaming" thing feels like it's pulled out in convenient cases but never actually followed to its logical conclusion - we don't REALLY expect World of Warcraft, Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, etc etc etc to suddenly be represented, despite clearly making the cut if we truly embrace that mindset.

 

[cashregister9]

Honestly I think all the Sega, Bamco and Capcom characters won't be leaving tbh.

Even Joker I think is good from here on out, Persona 5 was and is a big deal.

From there the likelihood from "most likely" to "least likely" is probably something like.

-Terry
-Steve
-Banjo
-Snake
-Simon
-Sora
-Cloud
-Hero
-Sephiroth

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Are 3rd party characters even considered "guests" anymore? genuinely asking lol.

It's still a Nintendo game, so yes, any character not Nintendo is a guest by default.

 

[fogbadge]

It certainly a different approach to guest characters. From what I know most of them are one offs in other games

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Are 3rd party characters even considered "guests" anymore? genuinely asking lol.
Also yeah, "Everyone is here" kind of makes it hard to predict Smash 4 veterans and Ultimate veterans chances to returning, specially 3rdparty-wise as the only known 3rdparty cut is Snake...but that was back when we only had 2 of them.
I think it also depends of the direction of the next smash game....if they decide to double down even more on 3rdparties or not, for all we know it's 1st party characters that are more in risk and not let's say Sepiroth lol.

I don't consider Sonic a guest at least.

He's been here far too long to be one.

I don't think Terry is as likely to be cut as people made it seems to be. First, SNK seems to be one of the easiest third party to negotiate with. Second, Fatal fury is getting a new game this year. If Terry could get in with no game in 25 years, surely he can come back with a new game, right?

In my opinion, I feel like the most likely third party to be cut are Sephiroth, Joker, Snake and Sora. Sora it's because Disney and I'm not sure if they can pull that off a second time, at least in base game (I think he has more chances as DLC again). Sephiroth I think it's just because they'll obviously put priority on Cloud, but he might still come back if Square is good with it and there's enough spot for it. Snake, well he was already cut in the past so there's precedent for it. And Joker, it's just that we already have FF and DQ (yeah I think Hero is very likely to come back personally) as third party jrpg rep, so I think Persona is going to get lower priority. Also I'd argue Persona is probably one of the least "iconic" of the third party franchise aside from Banjo and Bayonetta (not that Persona isn't big, but compare to the others it's a bit smaller).

My copium is that i want to believe they thought far enough ahead to secure the rights to use him in the next game simply because he's the most popular request.

 

[DarthEnderX]

The problem about the third-parties is that there is very little argument in favor of the vast majority of them other than "they're iconic"

What else do they need?

There's very little argument in favor of most of the 1P characters besides being iconic either.

Are 3rd party characters even considered "guests" anymore? genuinely asking lol.

They never really were? In order to be a "guest" you have to come from outside a series' setting or continuity. Two things...Smash doesn't have. If you start out as a multiversal crossover with no ongoing plot, there's nothing to be outside of.

Smash also doesn't treat 3P characters any differently from it's own.

 

[Noipoi]

I don't consider Sonic a guest at least.

He's been here far too long to be one.

Sonic is that one guest who just kinda stuck around, and next thing you know he’s your roommate.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

My copium is that i want to believe they thought far enough ahead to secure the rights to use him in the next game simply because he's the most popular request.

Honestly, I feel like Sora is pretty likely to stick around. Literally number one most requested character ever, Disney was completely on board, and Nomura signed off on it eventually despite his misgivings at first because of KH canon, the hardest part was just getting into contact with Disney in the first place.

Like maybe Disney would want him to be DLC again, but like either way I feel like he's definitely coming back, just a matter of when.

 

[fogbadge]

Sonic is that one guest who just kinda stuck around, and next thing you know he’s your roommate.

that’s how my best friend got her cats

and her lizard

 

[DemifiendEnjoyer]

I'm having urges to start complaining about Joker again hold me back.

 

[Garteam]

Someone made a moveset for the Masked Man from Mother 3:

If you know…you know.

His Final Smash is just another explosion, which is kinda lame. Overall though, pretty cool moveset.

Seeing this makes me nostalgic for when I first got into Smash Speculation. It was about 4 years before I joined the Boards. Little guy was in everyone's roster back in the day. It's really cool to finally see him join, even in the form of a mod.

 

[Noipoi]

Alfred: “What’s wrong, Master Wayne?”

Batman:

I'm having urges to start complaining about Joker again hold me back.