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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Captain Shwampy

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 20, 2014
Messages
3,138
I'd liken it to a hypothetical 90s/early 2000s Sega fan that saw Puyo Puyo get bigger focus in marketing and more consistent releases over time than their preferred series and began to resent it. The latter's long history, merits as a franchise, practical success within the video game marketplace; everything that it is would be secondary in their minds to what it is not: one of their favorites that helped define what Sega was/is to them.
Imagining a dude punching his wall every time a puzzle game made by like 5 people that reuses assets from 20 years ago gets announced.

"all that money WASTED for the 400 million dollars needed to make SHENMUE IV"
1739925325088.jpeg
 

SPEN18

Smash Champion
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Because it's not consistent? Awakening was huge. Then Fates did alright. Then Three Houses was huge. And Engage did mediocre.
Yeah Fates actually did very well from a commercial and traditional critical perspective. It's just really not the cup of tea for some people. I actually would rank it pretty low in terms of my personal favorite FEs but again, commercially and critically it was a successful outing for FE any way you slice it and lent even more credence to the idea that the series truly had broken out, i.e. that Awakening wasn't going to be a single-hit wonder.
I already explained in great detail about Engage.
I suppose you can say Echoes didn't do too hot but I mean that was a remake of possibly the quirkiest game in the entire series and also put out to backfill the dying 3DS; it doesn't really reflect the status of the mainline series.
 

PersonAngelo53

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Jun 5, 2020
Messages
155
I think it's 50/50 for anything to happen regardless.
  • It could be Alear, it could be Veronica, it could be a different character.
  • They could be base game, they could be DLC, they could not happen at all.
  • The game Sakurai could be working on could be Smash Bros, it could be a different game entirely.
I honestly don't think the reception to Byleth is as much of an impact that people think or want to think that it will have an effect on characters and future games. And while Alear might sound uninteresting to some, some people who didn't like Byleth or think they weren't interesting have changed their minds after playing them, after being in the after-storm calm for a bit and I don't think Alear will be any different.
All that aside, I'm still holding on to my master theory.


FEH has so much good music. And man, would I love to see the faces on some of the reaction watchers if we got a Fire Emblem character trailer with this music.
Yeah woah lots of good ones here. Super smash bros is missing out if they keep not adding this music tracks from spin offs. Another good example is stuff like Hyrule warriors for example or Xenoblade X. Stuff like that needs more music as well.
 

Thegameandwatch

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 21, 2024
Messages
340
Yeah woah lots of good ones here. Super smash bros is missing out if they keep not adding this music tracks from spin offs. Another good example is stuff like Hyrule warriors for example or Xenoblade X. Stuff like that needs more music as well.
There are two tracks from Heroes in Smash but I assume that there wasn’t anything from the story because of time
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Fire Emblem needs less characters but hating Fire Emblem or it's characters in general is whack.
We need like, a dedicated Fire Emblem Fighting game. Make it look like Granblue Fantasy Versus, but with a more Fire Emblem like artstyle (dunno which one you'd mold it on though since they're all pretty different from each other).

Then we'd get to have some fun with deep cuts...or at least, slightly below surface level cuts.

I'm not sure what kind of games would best suit this kind of definition but a lot of the stuff in the NES and SNES apps on the Switch could be in that ballpark.
ZanZarah: The Hidden Portal? It seems to have enough of a niche to have gotten on Steam by request, but I've never seen anyone but me talk about it.
 

DarthEnderX

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Nov 10, 2014
Messages
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Fates literally outsold Awakening last I checked.
Yeah Fates actually did very well from a commercial and traditional critical perspective.
Fates was also 2 games you had to buy if you wanted to see the real ending. Which artificially inflates the number of copies sold vs. how many people bought it.

I don't think I'd call roughly the 1.5 -2 million Engage sold mediocre either.
I would call selling less than half what the previous game sold, on the same system, mediocre.
 

dream1ng

Smash Champion
Joined
Jul 24, 2016
Messages
2,369
I would call selling less than half what the previous game sold, on the same system, mediocre.
This is within the ballpark of what remakes/deluxe versions of an existing game often sell compared to a totally new iteration, fwiw - just next time you go on about how many people would enjoy the same thing we already got but with a little more.
 

Godzillathewonderdog

Smash Master
Joined
Jun 3, 2013
Messages
3,529
Fates was also 2 games you had to buy if you wanted to see the real ending. Which artificially inflates the number of copies sold vs. how many people bought it.
So do you think Fates would have sold less than Awakening if it only had one version? Fates sold more than 700k copies than Awakaning, do you think more than 700k people bought both versions for themselves? Regardless it was still a bigger financial success, who cares what method they used to gain that success?
 

DarthEnderX

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This is within the ballpark of what remakes/deluxe versions of an existing game often sell compared to a totally new iteration, fwiw
Right, but...Engage WASN'T a remake/deluxe version. It was a totally new iteration.

So do you think Fates would have sold less than Awakening if it only had one version? Fates sold more than 700k copies than Awakaning, do you think more than 700k people bought both versions for themselves?
Yes. People do it all the time with Pokemon. I'm sure FE at least has 700k fans that wanted to see the entire game enough to buy both versions.
 

dream1ng

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Right, but...Engage WASN'T a remake/deluxe version. It was a totally new iteration.
Sure. The second new title usually also sells worse than the first one on a system. Look at every console with two Zeldas.

But you're the one who said it was mediocre. And just remember that when it comes to sales of a deluxe version vs. a fully new title.

Yes. People do it all the time with Pokemon. I'm sure FE at least has 700k fans that wanted to see the entire game enough to buy both versions.
Do you have any sources whatsoever to corroborate that? Even any data of how many people buy both Pokemon versions?
 

AlRex

Smash Lord
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1,209
Possibly has been a topic of discussion before, but I’m curious again. What video game genres that don’t really have a playable character or stage would be cool to see in? Wouldn’t count variations on platformers or RPGs unless they could be really different gameplay-wise? (IE: I’ve seen people like the idea of a rogue-like fighter or even rogue-like elements for a Smash Run or other potential side mode)

There aren’t really any rhythm game, point-and-click, beat-em-up, FPS, or survival horror characters to a substantial degree, and I could think of a few characters for each, both Nintendo-owned and third party. Unsure if tower defense counts as a sub-genre of strategy along the lines of Fire Emblem or Advance Wars. Maybe other genres I’m forgetting. Don’t think there’s really a sports fighter, unless Daisy, Captain Falcon (racing), or the Miis count, despite not really having a moveset involving them.
 

DarthEnderX

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Sure. The second new title usually also sells worse than the first one on a system. Look at every console with two Zeldas.
While that's often true, it's certainly not a given.

And just remember that when it comes to sales of a deluxe version vs. a fully new title.
I...don't understand why you keep asking me to remember something that doesn't apply to what we're talking about.

We were talking about Three Houses vs. Engage. That's a fully new title vs. a fully new title.

Possibly has been a topic of discussion before, but I’m curious again. What video game genres that don’t really have a playable character or stage would be cool to see in?
Beat-em-ups for sure. After fighting games, it's the genre that should convert easiest to Smash. So it's crazy that we still don't have one.

Don’t think there’s really a sports fighter
Kunio could be our first beat-em-up rep AND sports rep!
 
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dream1ng

Smash Champion
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Possibly has been a topic of discussion before, but I’m curious again. What video game genres that don’t really have a playable character or stage would be cool to see in? Wouldn’t count variations on platformers or RPGs unless they could be really different gameplay-wise? (IE: I’ve seen people like the idea of a rogue-like fighter or even rogue-like elements for a Smash Run or other potential side mode)

There aren’t really any rhythm game, point-and-click, beat-em-up, FPS, or survival horror characters to a substantial degree, and I could think of a few characters for each, both Nintendo-owned and third party. Unsure if tower defense counts as a sub-genre of strategy along the lines of Fire Emblem or Advance Wars. Maybe other genres I’m forgetting.
I think rhythm would be the most interesting in terms of bringing the series' mechanic with it. But it would also be pretty tricky to find something that meshed into Smash's frantic pace while trying to maintain some steady rhythm. For all we know, that's why the Chorus Men didn't pan out.

FPS would be cool with some firearm switching mechanic. Min Min kinda already took a version of what I was expecting for that, but fists and guns are... pretty different, so there's still room to expand that one out without being derivative, I think.

A tower defense character could have an interesting gimmick of actually building/maintaining a tower/turrent/whatever on the stage. Sort of like Villager's tree, but... a lot more fleshed out. The only problem is they'd be exponentially more viable on smaller static stages than big or moving ones.

At the same time though, while it's cool to bring in elements from the series, I'd rather they not so subsume the character as to sacrifice them feeling/ controlling as a normal Smash character, which I kinda felt we were flirting with with options like Min Min and Kazuya.

Don’t think there’s really a sports fighter, unless Daisy, Captain Falcon (racing), or the Miis count, despite not really having a moveset involving them.
Little Mac?
 

Schnee117

Too Majestic for Gender
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Yes. People do it all the time with Pokemon. I'm sure FE at least has 700k fans that wanted to see the entire game enough to buy both versions.
Fates provided the other routes as in-game dlc at half price which wouldn't count towards sales.
Unless you want to believe 700k people who wanted to see both Conquest and Birthright but not the third route decided to buy the other version outright instead of the cheaper dlc. A couple thousand I could believe. But 700k? Nah.
 

dream1ng

Smash Champion
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While that's often true, it's certainly not a given.

I...don't understand why you keep asking me to remember something that doesn't apply to what we're talking about.

We were talking about Three Houses vs. Engage. That's a fully new title vs. a fully new title.
But, you classified how much Engage sold compared to 3H as mediocre, which is also within the range of a deluxe version compared to a new version.

It's not about whether it's a second title or a deluxe version, it's about the bar you set for "mediocre". If you make a caveat that it wouldn't be mediocre for a deluxe version, the point remains it would still be substantially less than a new title.

So to release a game that statistically has a lower commercial ceiling than another option goes against everything you claim of a deluxe Ultimate, that more people would want that than a new game. Because deluxe versions sell in a range that you have now called mediocre.

And if you say that that is not always the case... it's the case an overwhelming majority of the time, which, before either option was pursued, when neither game yet existed, would guide Nintendo towards a new title being the commercially optimal route.

The fact that you were talking about two FE games is very much the point. Because if you were talking about Smash, you wouldn't make the argument that the normal ballpark for deluxe versions is mediocre.


Also I'll take that lack of reply to having any source to back up your estimate for consumers of both versions to indicate you don't.
 

DarthEnderX

Smash Hero
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Fates provided the other routes as in-game dlc at half price which wouldn't count towards sales.
Fair point.

But, you classified how much Engage sold compared to 3H as mediocre, which is also within the range of a deluxe version compared to a new version.
I would consider a new entry that only sells as well as a deluxe version of an old entry to be pretty mediocre.

If you make a caveat that it wouldn't be mediocre for a deluxe version, the point remains it would still be substantially less than a new title.
But...I DIDN'T make that caveat. You brought up deluxe versions, not me.

And if you say that that is not always the case... it's the case an overwhelming majority of the time
Do you have any sources whatsoever to corroborate that?

Assassin's Creed, Mass Effect, Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, Halo...these are all series who have had sequels that outsold their previous games released on the same console.
 
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AlRex

Smash Lord
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Messages
1,209
RE: Little Mac and Kunio-Kun both being sports-fighters…true. I did a rough movelist for Kunio one time, and he basically has something for every move slot and then some. Maybe could add “Athlete” as a Mii type alongside “Mage”, or that substitute Mii Sports without Miis I forgot the name of. :S

SHMUPS could be neat, Reimu and maybe TwinBee or a Moai from Gradius could be viable. Could be experimental and try and figure out how the Vic Viper or R-Type ships work as a fighter, but that’s tricky. The Zone of Enders mech version might not be the preferred option. Run & guns are easier to envision, Metal Slug or Contra or even Gunstar Heroes, perhaps.
 

Kirby Dragons

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Another Dimension
For Rhythm Heaven, I decided on Karate Joe as a fighter, for his moveset potential. He'd do basic karate moves for his normals. His specials could have objects fly at him. If he times it right, pressing the input again could have him hit the object and use it as an attack. I think that could be a good way to represent the rhythmic gameplay of the series.
 

Gengar84

Smash Hero
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Messages
7,373
Possibly has been a topic of discussion before, but I’m curious again. What video game genres that don’t really have a playable character or stage would be cool to see in? Wouldn’t count variations on platformers or RPGs unless they could be really different gameplay-wise? (IE: I’ve seen people like the idea of a rogue-like fighter or even rogue-like elements for a Smash Run or other potential side mode)

There aren’t really any rhythm game, point-and-click, beat-em-up, FPS, or survival horror characters to a substantial degree, and I could think of a few characters for each, both Nintendo-owned and third party. Unsure if tower defense counts as a sub-genre of strategy along the lines of Fire Emblem or Advance Wars. Maybe other genres I’m forgetting. Don’t think there’s really a sports fighter, unless Daisy, Captain Falcon (racing), or the Miis count, despite not really having a moveset involving them.
There’s a lot of characters I’d love to see that would represent new gaming genres to Smash. Here’s a few of my favorites:

Beat ‘em Up - Battletoads
MOBA - Jinx
MMORPG/RTS - Illidan Stormrage
RTS - Sarah Kerrigan
Musou/ Hack and Slash - Lu Bu
Run and Gun - Bill Rizer/Lance Bean
FPS - Joanna Dark
 
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Gengar84

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Messages
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It’s always the genre I see it listed as.
It definitely has some common traits with RTS games like squad management, resource control and multitasking but it lacks base building and is more focused on a single unit and has more of an adventure and puzzle solving style that traditional RTS games don’t have. So while I’ll say they do have a lot in common, I’m not sure I’d classify it as a full RTS game.
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
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It definitely has some common traits with RTS games like squad management, resource control and multitasking but it lacks base building and is more focused on a single unit and has more of an adventure and puzzle solving style that traditional RTS games don’t have. So while I’ll say they do have a lot in common, I’m not sure I’d classify it as a full RTS game.
It counts
 

Garteam

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Engage moreso underperformed than outright failed. It sold about half of what Three Houses did (a major sin when the expectation for modern corporations is infinite growth) and it doesn’t get referenced a lot in Heroes relative to when Echoes and Three Houses were new, but 2 million copies is still respectable.

None of that really matters if the project plan was drafted in 2021, though. We know from Engage’s files that the game was complete at that time, so Sakurai could have been aware of Alear and added them.

I think the bigger issue is the general pushback against Fire Emblem’s presence on Smash’s roster. Byleth already being a Switch-era Fire Emblem rep may also serve as deterrents against adding an additional Fire Emblem newcomer from Engage. Corrin and Byleth also had the advantage of the dev team and Nintendo pushing for their inclusion, respectively, which may not be the case for Alear.
 
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Gengar84

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I do think the over representation issue is a bit overblown. A lot of Fire Emblem’s characters are either echoes or semiclones which don’t require as many resources as a full character. Roy, Lucina, and Chrom are all variants originating from Marth.
 

Hadokeyblade

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Messages
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Possibly has been a topic of discussion before, but I’m curious again. What video game genres that don’t really have a playable character or stage would be cool to see in? Wouldn’t count variations on platformers or RPGs unless they could be really different gameplay-wise? (IE: I’ve seen people like the idea of a rogue-like fighter or even rogue-like elements for a Smash Run or other potential side mode)

There aren’t really any rhythm game, point-and-click, beat-em-up, FPS, or survival horror characters to a substantial degree, and I could think of a few characters for each, both Nintendo-owned and third party. Unsure if tower defense counts as a sub-genre of strategy along the lines of Fire Emblem or Advance Wars. Maybe other genres I’m forgetting. Don’t think there’s really a sports fighter, unless Daisy, Captain Falcon (racing), or the Miis count, despite not really having a moveset involving them.
Phoenix Wright, a point and click adventure game protagonist is the guy ive been asking for. lol


What does a "niche" or "obscure" character mean to you? (Note that niche and obscure aren't the same thing.)
I've seen this term thrown a lot in Smash Speculation and seems like everyone has their own meaning of the words, some people use it to troll or be annoying, sure, but let's ignore those people for this question.
Well ive suggested Super Robot Wars for a character in the past, that's pretty niche outside of Japan since most of the series is Japan only.

But in Japan it's one of their longest running RPG series so i dont know if it really counts.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I do think the over representation issue is a bit overblown. A lot of Fire Emblem’s characters are either echoes or semiclones which don’t require as many resources as a full character. Roy, Lucina, and Chrom are all variants originating from Marth.
I think the issues are twofold:

1.
"Oh boy I can't wait to see what the next DLC character is. I'm hoping for [INSERT BIG NAME HERE]!"
An avatar character with a non-specific personality from a series you don't care about presented in a trailer that's literally just a cutscene from their game joins the battle!
🤬

2.
Corporate wants to determine the difference between these pictures:
:ultmarth::ultlucina::ultroy::ultchrom::ultcorrin::ultbyleth:

"They're the same picture. Please give me something different next time."
 
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Gengar84

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I think the issues are twofold:

1.
"Oh boy I can't wait to see what the next DLC character is. I'm hoping for [INSERT BIG NAME HERE]!"
An avatar character with a non-specific personality from a series you don't care about presented in a trailer that's literally just a cutscene from their game joins the battle!
🤬

2.
Corporate wants to determine the difference between these pictures:
:ultmarth::ultlucina::ultroy::ultchrom::ultcorrin::ultbyleth:

"They're the same picture. Please give me something different next time."
Yeah, I can definitely relate to that. I feel like Byleth and Corrin would have had a better reception if timing had worked out for them to be base game. There’s a certain expectation that comes with DLC and a blank slate avatar from a series that already has a lot of characters isn’t exactly the most exciting thing.
 

Gengar84

Smash Hero
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I do think people seriously overestimate how much Nintendo cares about how many fire emblem characters there are.

I am biased in this regard (I want more fire emblem characters)
I want more characters I like. Some of them happen to be Fire Emblem characters. So I’d be excited to get those characters regardless of how many characters we already have. That said, my favorite FE characters are mostly the supporting cast so they’re unlikely to join. I’m just kind of bored with avatar characters in general.
 

Garteam

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I do think people seriously overestimate how much Nintendo cares about how many fire emblem characters there are.

I am biased in this regard (I want more fire emblem characters)
It’s not Nintendo that’s the problem. It’s Sakurai. He outright expressed some concern that Fire Emblem may be overrepresented in the Famitsu column following Corrin’s announcement and he really tried to distance himself from Byleth’s inclusion. His concerns may be offset by Fire Emblem losing some veterans, though.

I’d give my left nut for Sigurd to get in Smash.
 

Gengar84

Smash Hero
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Dec 9, 2009
Messages
7,373
I’m pretty sure he’s got no chance at all but I’d love to see Naesala in Smash. I always loved his character and design and he’s got a lot of potential as a winged Laguz character. He kind of gave me Kimblee vibes from Full Metal Alchemist, who was my favorite character. Even if we do get supporting characters at some point, I think he’s way too obscure to have any shot.
 

SuperSonicFlyer

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Say, are we sure characters from one company can hinder other characters from the same company in terms of their chances of getting into Smash Bros.? I mean, Banjo-Kazooie and Steve from Microsoft were added before Master Chief from the same company. I mean, Master Chief has not been on a Nintendo console before, and Steve and Banjo-Kazooie had different, significant reasons for getting in before Master Chief, but Master Chief is like an important character to Microsoft, is he not? Plus, while characters are chosen, I do not think it has to do that much with priorities, aside from promotions, of course. Now, I think Sakurai does choose characters independently from how many characters a company has, maybe to an extent, so correct me if I am wrong. It is just that, to me, Microsoft, and companies like Square Enix, have a lot of characters, so they not? That doesn’t mean there is competition between them in the mind of Sakurai, or at least, that much competition intentionally.
 

cashregister9

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It’s not Nintendo that’s the problem. It’s Sakurai. He outright expressed some concern that Fire Emblem may be overrepresented in the Famitsu column following Corrin’s announcement and he really tried to distance himself from Byleth’s inclusion. His concerns may be offset by Fire Emblem losing some veterans, though.

I’d give my left nut for Sigurd to get in Smash.
On the other hand, After Byleth It was cemented more than ever that as long as Sakurai had a good idea for a move set, it didn't really matter what they were from. So yeah, he might want less fire emblem, but if they need to add one, he won't hesitate.
 

fogbadge

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"Oh boy I can't wait to see what the next DLC character is. I'm hoping for [INSERT BIG NAME HERE]!"
An avatar character with a non-specific personality from a series you don't care about presented in a trailer that's literally just a cutscene from their game joins the battle!
🤬
to be fair some people who like FE reacted like that

Say, are we sure characters from one company can hinder other characters from the same company in terms of their chances of getting into Smash Bros.?
I would say no. I don't believe this has ever actually happened so in many ways it's just another fan rule.
 
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