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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Watuna4343

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How do you define impact?
Pretty sure it's rather self-explanatory. Treasure Tracker and 8 Deluxe didn't have the same impact if we're comparing Wii U ports. One is the best selling game of the entire console and is played to this day pretty much and kept receiving content until the early 2020s and the other sold far less well and I doubt many people play it to this day
 

fogbadge

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Pretty sure it's rather self-explanatory. Treasure Tracker and 8 Deluxe didn't have the same impact if we're comparing Wii U ports. One is the best selling game of the entire console and is played to this day pretty much and kept receiving content until the early 2020s and the other sold far less well and I doubt many people play it to this day
so what you’re saying is something you can’t back up?
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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There is no such thing as "self-explanatory". If you can't define it, it's not a useful term in any conversations. There's far more buzzwords that can be defined easily, even if they're not that useful. But at least it's easy to be clear on what is meant if asked.
 

Louie G.

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I mean, influence kind of a weak argument here - games have had less success and influence than this and still seen substantial representation in Smash, so there are plenty more factors involved than this - but I don't think it's hard to explain or define.

How much are people still talking about and playing Treasure Tracker? How much lasting influence has it had on the Mario series as a whole, and Toad as a character? The Wii U and Switch releases sold over 3.5 million together - not bad, but did it set the world on fire the way other Mario adjacent games do? Collectively, do these points make Captain Toad a character who demands attention, or at least may be in the peripheral?

Like I said, during the Wii U era it felt like Captain Toad was really standing his ground. Now it feels like much of that energy behind the character has fizzled out, not just in Smash circles but from Nintendo themselves. Some of these can be backed up by hard numbers, others can't. But it's not unreasonable to attempt to read the room on which games and characters continue to really excite people, and which ones came and went. People still like "Toad", but far less people are still invested in "Captain Toad". In my opinion this is a pretty safe claim to make just observing the greater Nintendo community.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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Keep in mind, some of the impact arguments could be moot if we get a Treasure Tracker 2 on the next Switch controlled by the mouse con and the whole debate just starts all over again. It would be Toad's lousy fortune that he gets a sequel likely after the Smash 6 deciding period is over, but numerous series in Smash have had that bad luck with the broader video game development timing cycle, so who knows?
 
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Thegameandwatch

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I'm confident Toad will get in Smash Bros. eventually. Could be in base game Smash 6, DLC or even a future entry.
I feel like Toad being playable would have already happened if he wasn’t a counter move. Maybe by Brawl since that game didn’t introduce any new Mario characters outside of the ones considered separate such as Wario and Diddy Kong.

The developers would probably just retexture the counter and throws so that wouldn’t be an issue if he was playable,

Chrom is already an example of a character that is used in someone’s moveset (Robin’s Final Smash and Victory Animation) and still playable.
 

Perkilator

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I feel like Toad being playable would have already happened if he wasn’t a counter move. Maybe by Brawl since that game didn’t introduce any new Mario characters outside of the ones considered separate such as Wario and Diddy Kong.
You can just give Peach a new neutral special and change some of her throws in order to account for a playable Toad.
 

Watuna4343

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so what you’re saying is something you can’t back up?
There is no such thing as "self-explanatory". If you can't define it, it's not a useful term in any conversations. There's far more buzzwords that can be defined easily, even if they're not that useful. But at least it's easy to be clear on what is meant if asked.
OK, so Idk why people think that just because I said it's self explanatory means that I can't explain it for some reason? I mean it is self explanatory because, what impact did Captain Toad Treasure Tracker have in terms of sales, in terms of staying power, player base, acclaim, popularity etc. to say that 'yes Captain Toad had that one hit game, we should put him in Smash'? Sorry for the rant but the fact that something so simple as the fact that that one cute little game Captain Toad got just remained niche is honestly baffling.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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Peach now pulls out a terrified and even more elderly Toadsworth as her neutral special, with the move now unofficially renamed as Toadsworthwhile.
Actually since Toad Shield is a pretty bad counter it would probably be called Toadsworthless.
 

Perkilator

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Quoting from te Sora thread:
Hi! I'm working on a moveset for Roxas in Super Smash Bros. and it's going to be published as a guest article for Source Gaming. I'm just looking for some GIF's for certain animations, which I couldn't find on KHWiki. To be specific:
  • On-Screen Appearance
  • Walk
  • Dash & Run
  • Crouch
  • Jump
  • Damage
  • Shield
  • Neutral Attack
  • Forward Tilt
  • Up Tilt
  • Forward Smash
  • Down Smash
  • Neutral Aerial
  • Back Aerial
  • Forward Throw
  • Back Throw
  • Up Throw
  • Down Throw
  • Final Smash
  • Up Taunt
  • Side Taunt
  • Down Taunt
And I'd like to finish this by 3/8/25. The document is open for editing, so if anyone has GIF's of the above, feel free to insert them into the document.
 

Pupp135

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A few Re’s here.
Let's discuss something, which newcomer do you think we'll be in the first reveal trailer for the next smash?
I think that character reveals would approach something more like For‘s, so I think we’ll get about three or four newcomers revealed initially, and most or even all of the remaining ones will get a trailer following after. For guessing which newcomers would be revealed in the initial trailer, I’ll go with this rough order:

Bandana Waddle Dee: A popular request to help capture the interest of players at the beginning of the cycle while Waluigi is revealed later on, continuing the hype in a similar vein to King K. Rool.
Octoling: An easy echo or semi-clone reveal, and Splatoon is a major franchise.
Sans: Like with Brawl and For, I think we’ll get a third party newcomer reveal for SSB6’s reveal. In terms of third parties, I think it would be Sans or a fighter from Capcom or Namco.
Tom Nook: He’s a little more out there compared to the three above, but Animal Crossing is a big franchise, and I could see Nintendo focusing on revealing an Animal Crossing newcomer early on.

So how about a topic that doesn't get talked about as much as character cuts, character chances and whatnot.
View attachment 399104
Alt wishlist:
Ness: Ghost Ness
Jigglypuff: Crown outfit from Melee
Marth: NES Shadow Dragon Design
Zero Suit Samus: Super Metroid Outfit
Pokemon Trainer (M): Red’s old design
Pokemon Trainer (F): Let’s Go Green or Manga Green design
Sonic: Something more like the fangames where his fur matches his friends‘ color scheme
Villager: New Leaf/Mario Kart 8 Designs
Robin (M): Merric and Soren color schemes
Robin (F): Celica and Nino color schemes

So, aside from newcomers, what veterans do you think will be revealed to return when Smash 6 is announced? Like how Mario, Link, Pikachu and Kirby as well as Samus were revealed in Brawl's initial and the original 8 (Minus Yoshi) and Pit were revealed for Smash 4.
I’m leaning to roughly 15 to 20 veterans being revealed, which is more than For’s initial veteran lineup, but Ultimate has a much larger roster. Maybe we’d see something like this:
:ultmario::ultbowser::ultpeach::ultdk::ultyoshi::ultlink::ultzelda::ultsamus::ultpit::ultmarth::ultsonic::ultkirby::ultfox::ultpikachu::ultvillager::ultolimar::ultinkling:

I think the original eight would be in the first trailer as the true perfect attendees.
Bowser, Princess Peach, Princess Zelda, Marth, and Pit are pre For veterans heavily used in marketing for prior games.
Sonic is viewed as the quintessential third party character more or less.
Pikmin, Animal Crossing, and Splatoon are franchises highly valued by Nintendo.

Outside of Waluigi, who is the most likely Mario character to be included in Smash 6 in your opinion.
While Waluigi is the frontrunner, it is interesting to consider which Super Mario character might also join the roster, and I’ll go with my intuition on least likely to most likely from the ones mentioned more often.

Kamek: Kamek is a recurring antagonist of the Super Mario franchise, and another magical fighter would be cool to see, but he doesn’t seem like a priority even for assists and Mii Outfit. Also, I feel like his name is sometimes thrown around to arbitrarily add another Yoshi character.

King Boo: I think the latter four are likelier given their requests, legacy, or relevancy, but I think there’s merit to add King Boo to the roster as Luigi’s Mansion is a popular franchise, and the Boo is the most used mook in spinoffs overall.

Geno: His inclusion would solely hinge on his requests that have persisted since the Brawl era. While he is a long time request, I think he’ll be passed over again, and priorities would go to other third party fighters, some of which are popular in the SSB community like Dante, Lloyd, or Sans.

Toad: On the one hand, this is a character who would seem like a shoo-in given his legacy in the Super Mario series, and he honestly could’ve joined in Melee or Brawl without raising any eyebrows given his prominence to the Super Mario series. On the other hand, he was passed over in Brawl and For where we received Rosalina and Bowser Jr. instead in For. Currently, I’m doubtful on his chances because it mostly just seems that he doesn’t capture the developers’ interest as a fighter, unlike a fighter like Rosalina, whose inclusion was influenced by the puppet fighter archetype. Honestly, I don’t see the Peach neutral spacial as hindrance to Toad’s chances as we still have Chrom as part of Robin‘s Final Smash, and Toad’s exclusion is more likely influenced by my former point. If Toad gets added, I’d love to see a Toadette echo as she’s my favorite Super Mario character.

Paper Mario: I’m not sold on him, but I could see him being likelier than Geno and Toad. In terms of requests, he seems to have a decent number of requests. Additionally, the Paper Mario series does have its foot in the door with a stage, and maybe the developers are interested in having another interpretation of Mario’s moveset based on the Paper Mario games (a third Mario isn’t really that much of a detraction to me as we technically have three Links, two Samuses, and two Zeldas). I think the biggest detraction is reluctance to adding spinoff characters and content (Mario Party still doesn’t have a stage yet unfortunately, but I’d love to see something like Peach’s Birthday Cake or Rainbow Galleria join).

Pauline: At the moment, I feel like Pauline is the second most likely Super Mario character at the moment, but it may be a case of recency bias where we see her being playable in multiple spinoffs, with Super Mario Party Jamboree and the upcoming Mario Kart as the most recent examples. Pauline‘s push isn’t as big as Rosalina’s in the early 2010s, but it feels like Nintendo wants to make her a mainstay for at least the Mario spinoff games. I think her biggest detraction would be whether Sakurai comes up with an archetype/moveset that interests him.
 
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Wonder Smash

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OK, so Idk why people think that just because I said it's self explanatory means that I can't explain it for some reason? I mean it is self explanatory because, what impact did Captain Toad Treasure Tracker have in terms of sales, in terms of staying power, player base, acclaim, popularity etc. to say that 'yes Captain Toad had that one hit game, we should put him in Smash'? Sorry for the rant but the fact that something so simple as the fact that that one cute little game Captain Toad got just remained niche is honestly baffling.
Yeah, while I don't think it would hurt to explain it (especially if somebody ask), I also don't think it was necessary for people go "it's something you can't back up" or "you can't define it". At least wait and give somebody more opportunities to explain until it becomes clear rather than already accusing them from the start. It's clear that some people need to work on the way they approach people on this site.
 
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Geno Boost

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Incalculable really. Far to many options with very different circumstances. There's:
  • Pauline if Sakurai has an idea for her.
  • Geno if he's finally proven popular enough to add.
  • Kamek and King Boo as crazy options that also shed spotlight on.
  • (Captain) Toad could still come at any point.
there is more since clones and echo fighter can easily be made for some of the already featured mario characters such as boshi and dry bowser and funky kong
also lets not forget foreman spike was revived in the mario movie he can easily be the next retro rep in the roster just like how rob was rrevived in mario kart ds before being added to brawl also the fact that there is already wrecking crew stage for him
 
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fogbadge

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OK, so Idk why people think that just because I said it's self explanatory means that I can't explain it for some reason? I mean it is self explanatory because, what impact did Captain Toad Treasure Tracker have in terms of sales, in terms of staying power, player base, acclaim, popularity etc. to say that 'yes Captain Toad had that one hit game, we should put him in Smash'? Sorry for the rant but the fact that something so simple as the fact that that one cute little game Captain Toad got just remained niche is honestly baffling.
this all sounds like a you thing more than anything else. we toads have been nothing but happy with the game and have very fond time with it. "impact" is one of those things I find it hard to follow because people tend to use it to mean different things. but there's plenty of us who loved the game and would love another one. I suppose in short you giving me the sense that you think your own opinion on the game is the general consensus
 

dream1ng

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so what you’re saying is something you can’t back up?
There is no such thing as "self-explanatory". If you can't define it, it's not a useful term in any conversations. There's far more buzzwords that can be defined easily, even if they're not that useful. But at least it's easy to be clear on what is meant if asked.
They said sales and longevity in their post asking impact to be explained.

Both of those are backed up by data and DLC.
 

Thegameandwatch

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there is more since clones and echo fighter can easily be made for some of the already featured mario characters such as boshi and dry bowser and funky kong
Not sure about Boshi since most of the original characters from Mario RPG are owned by Square unless characters based on pre-existing species are the exception.
 

Watuna4343

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this all sounds like a you thing more than anything else. we toads have been nothing but happy with the game and have very fond time with it. "impact" is one of those things I find it hard to follow because people tend to use it to mean different things. but there's plenty of us who loved the game and would love another one. I suppose in short you giving me the sense that you think your own opinion on the game is the general consensus
Listen, if you really want to believe that Treasure Tracker was that big of a deal, you are free to do so. But don't say that it's a 'me' thing that it remains niche in terms of sales, popularity and standing among so many other Mario and Switch games among the general audience, these are just facts that speak for themselves, not because I say them. Bravo that you and other 'toads' enjoyed the game, I never argued that the game was bad or a flop but literally every game in the face of the earth has people who 'enjoyed' it. That doesn't make them impactful or noteworthy or popular. If anything arguing that Treasure Tracker was such a big game is more of a 'you' thing and that it's your opinion you want to be applied as the general consensus when the data just doesn't back it up.
 

SuperSonicFlyer

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About Geno, who has been mentioned recently, I wish to say, I do think some are underestimating his chances. I think his chances of being playable next game are higher than people make them out to be.

BUT of course, that only goes so far, since he was not in since he was requested in Brawl.

On one hand, he was not chosen for the likes of others like Sephiroth last game, and he does have competition still Square Enix wise. On the other hand, he was in a remake of Super Mario RPG, his debut game, and that game sold around 3 million or more, more than the original game sold. Also, one of the makers of Super Mario RPG, if not, the maker, said he wanted to do a sequel to Super Mario RPG before retiring. Sakurai also said when Cloud was revealed for Smash 4 and Geno was a Mii Costume that he (Sakurai) wanted him in Smash as a playable since Brawl, did he not? Also, there is the fan support.

I am not saying Geno is that likely, but to me, he is not that unlikely either. That said, anyone else feel he would be DLC next game if he is playable? I know he was a spirit in the base game of Ultimate, but I feel that was a different story altogether.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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About Geno, who has been mentioned recently, I wish to say, I do think some are underestimating his chances. I think his chances of being playable next game are higher than people make them out to be.

BUT of course, that only goes so far, since he was not in since he was requested in Brawl.

On one hand, he was not chosen for the likes of others like Sephiroth last game, and he does have competition still Square Enix wise. On the other hand, he was in a remake of Super Mario RPG, his debut game, and that game sold around 3 million or more, more than the original game sold. Also, one of the makers of Super Mario RPG, if not, the maker, said he wanted to do a sequel to Super Mario RPG before retiring. Sakurai also said when Cloud was revealed for Smash 4 and Geno was a Mii Costume that he (Sakurai) wanted him in Smash as a playable since Brawl, did he not? Also, there is the fan support.

I am not saying Geno is that likely, but to me, he is not that unlikely either. That said, anyone else feel he would be DLC next game if he is playable? I know he was a spirit in the base game of Ultimate, but I feel that was a different story altogether.
I think Geno is in the best position he's ever been in with the remake and everything, but since this is his best shot, if he misses it, it's gonna be hard to imagine him popping up outside of a Mii Costume going forward. And since he's a Square Enix character, it means he also has competition with a ton of other Final Fantasy characters and things like Nier Automata and even potentially Chrono Trigger (though Chrono Trigger is probably on the lower end since it just gets infrequent ports like the DS and Steam releases), which is a hard sell for what's essentially a one-off Mario character.
 

SuperSonicFlyer

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I think Geno is in the best position he's ever been in with the remake and everything, but since this is his best shot, if he misses it, it's gonna be hard to imagine him popping up outside of a Mii Costume going forward. And since he's a Square Enix character, it means he also has competition with a ton of other Final Fantasy characters and things like Nier Automata and even potentially Chrono Trigger (though Chrono Trigger is probably on the lower end since it just gets infrequent ports like the DS and Steam releases), which is a hard sell for what's essentially a one-off Mario character.
Oh, no lie, I agree. In fact, it happens I forgot to put in the part about this being his best shot and what happens if he misses it. Please don’t ask; it happens.

But yeah, like I said, while I do think he is not that likely, he is not too unlikely either. I also did say he has competition in the Square Enix department as you said. In fact, is there a Final Fantasy VIII remake being made? I can see them want to promote a character from there over Geno, honestly.
 

TheFirstPoppyBro

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In fact, is there a Final Fantasy VIII remake being made? I can see them want to promote a character from there over Geno, honestly.
I have heard alleged rumors of FF9 being remade alongside Tactics? Nothing about 8, but that did get a remaster back in 2019 apparently?
 

SuperSonicFlyer

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I have heard alleged rumors of FF9 being remade alongside Tactics? Nothing about 8, but that did get a remaster back in 2019 apparently?
I must have gotten the number wrong.

BUT my point is that they added Sephiroth to promote the FFVII remake in Ultimate, did they not? I can see that happen again with the Final Fantasy IX remake, if that is the correct number, while doing it over Geno.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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there is more since clones and echo fighter can easily be made for some of the already featured mario characters such as boshi and dry bowser and funky kong
also lets not forget foreman spike was revived in the mario movie he can easily be the next retro rep in the roster just like how rob was rrevived in mario kart ds before being added to brawl also the fact that there is already wrecking crew stage for him
I don't think they'll use Boshi at all, but if they do, then an alternate costume would be more fitting here.

I must have gotten the number wrong.

BUT my point is that they added Sephiroth to promote the FFVII remake in Ultimate, did they not? I can see that happen again with the Final Fantasy IX remake, if that is the correct number, while doing it over Geno.
They never mentioned it nor added any music from it so probably not.
 

fogbadge

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Listen, if you really want to believe that Treasure Tracker was that big of a deal, you are free to do so. But don't say that it's a 'me' thing that it remains niche in terms of sales, popularity and standing among so many other Mario and Switch games among the general audience, these are just facts that speak for themselves, not because I say them. Bravo that you and other 'toads' enjoyed the game, I never argued that the game was bad or a flop but literally every game in the face of the earth has people who 'enjoyed' it. That doesn't make them impactful or noteworthy or popular. If anything arguing that Treasure Tracker was such a big game is more of a 'you' thing and that it's your opinion you want to be applied as the general consensus when the data just doesn't back it up.
less of the attitude if you please. I never said the game was big just that dismissing it as impactless was a bit harsh. but hey if you think we should talk about characters who’s games sold a certain amount then you do you
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I remember someone saying it was. That said, it still makes sense, but I see what you mean.
It's possible that I'm wrong about them mentioning the remake, but all of the music is from vanilla FFVII, Advent Children, or a Smash original remix of one of a song from one of the two.
 

dream1ng

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I still think either Skull Kid or Midna would make an interesting addition to the Smash roster.
Seconding Midna. She's my most wanted example of one-time character.
Well if you're gonna second Midna, I'm gonna second Skull Kid. Who is flat out my most wanted, so there. Trying to let Midna one up my Skull Kid, unbelievable.
This is the essence of why there's no Zelda character popular enough to be a fanbase inclusion, lol.
 

SuperSonicFlyer

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It's possible that I'm wrong about them mentioning the remake, but all of the music is from vanilla FFVII, Advent Children, or a Smash original remix of one of a song from one of the two.
Really? that is interesting. Makes me think more that copyright is a pain, especially how Square Enix handles it.
 
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