Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Gorgonzales]

OK, just out of curiosity…

How do you guys feel about scrolling stages?

Overall they aren't great, but IMO they're important to have. It's fun to see all kinds of options explored for a platform fighter's stages, and scrolling stages seem like a logical next step in that.

Mushroomy Kingdom was cool but I think it's time to stop bringing it back. Rainbow Cruise, on the other hand, is my favorite scroller since it's an actual platforming challenge that starts off slow enough and has a fun layout. It's genuinely one of my favorite stages in the series.

I don't think scrolling stages are bad, they're just very easy to execute wrong. Pac-Land and Rumble Falls are prime examples of that.

 

[Wario Bros.]

In Nintendo's fiscal Q&A, it says they are continuing with new mobile game and app development.

I don't have an idea what they could be making as there hasn't been a clear pattern visible from their previous works but I'm doubtful for something Smash (won't say it's impossible though).

 

[Ivander]

In Nintendo's fiscal Q&A, it says they are continuing with new mobile game and app development.

I don't have an idea what they could be making as there hasn't been a clear pattern visible from their previous works but I'm doubtful for something Smash (won't say it's impossible though).

Well, something interesting to note in regards to mobile game and apps. After this year's CYL and near the start of February for Fire Emblem Heroes, the FEH team sent out a survey to the players. Supposedly, the one and only time they ever sent out a survey for the players was around the first or second year of the game.

 

[Thegameandwatch]

In Nintendo's fiscal Q&A, it says they are continuing with new mobile game and app development.

I don't have an idea what they could be making as there hasn't been a clear pattern visible from their previous works but I'm doubtful for something Smash (won't say it's impossible though).

There are still series left without mobile games such as Zelda but that wouldn't work in my opinion.

One thing that is notable is Super Mario Run is still getting updates for events despite that game not being that relevant.

 

[ninjahmos]

It'll probably never happen, and I've said this before, but I'd love to hear music from Sonic 3D Blast (Both Genesis and Saturn) in the next game, especially this masterpiece:

Oh, and I'd also love to hear this song if Eggman ever gets in:

 

[dream1ng]

What I mean by ‘new age’ is created after Smash 64.

For a lot of fans, it seems the series that have been created after Smash 64 aren’t a priority compared to the series that were in Smash 64 (looking at ). Some people seem to view newer series as ‘lesser’ compared to the Original 12.

You could even put Fire Emblem in this boat, considering it debuted in the West with Smash Melee.

For a lot of newer series, it will likely be a priority for Nintendo to cultivate their recent successes with .

I think it's just that once a series is added, how it could expand is always going to be part of the conversation.

But let's be real, the only pre-Smash series that are regular points of conversation regarding newcomers are the (currently) big ones.


There's really not much serious conversation regarding

growing. Especially in comparison to the four you list.

The first-party conversation is mostly going to hinge on recency, as that's the criteria most newcomers share. So the fanbase priority is based around the newer games, which some pre-Smash series have, and some pre-Smash series don't.

For example if Pikmin stopped getting games, but Star Fox started again, the former would eventually reduce in speculation, while the latter would flourish.

Before Smash 64 and after Smash 64 isn't a signifier most people use... as it doesn't really determine anything apart from how many Smash games a franchise has existed for, and therefore how many opportunities a series has had to expand.

And that's the main reason some big series have lower numbers... they've just had fewer games to be around for, within a crossover that generally expands IPs in a measured pace, with exceptions being infrequent.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Mushroomy Kingdom was cool but I think it's time to stop bringing it back.

They need to bring it back at least once more so they can give the 1-2 version the justice it deserves.

-The only person who thinks the 1-2 version was cool.

 

[dream1ng]

OK, just out of curiosity…

How do you guys feel about scrolling stages?

Some are worse than others (if New Donk counts as scrolling that one's fine) but I would far prefer stages like Skyloft or Delfino that simply move locations or Hollow Bastion or Umbra Clock Tower where the background scrolls but the stage stays (mostly) static.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Mushroomy Kingdom was cool but I think it's time to stop bringing it back. Rainbow Cruise, on the other hand, is my favorite scroller since it's an actual platforming challenge that starts off slow enough and has a fun layout. It's genuinely one of my favorite stages in the series.

I disagree with that. I love Mushroomy Kingdom and I want it to be a series regular from now on.

 

[RileyXY1]

I think it's just that once a series is added, how it could expand is always going to be part of the conversation.

But let's be real, the only pre-Smash series that are regular points of conversation regarding newcomers are the (currently) big ones.


There's really not much serious conversation regarding

growing. Especially in comparison to the four you list.

The first-party conversation is mostly going to hinge on recency, as that's the criteria most newcomers share. So the fanbase priority is based around the newer games, which some pre-Smash series have, and some pre-Smash series don't.

For example if Pikmin stopped getting games, but Star Fox started again, the former would eventually reduce in speculation, while the latter would flourish.

Before Smash 64 and after Smash 64 isn't a signifier most people use... as it doesn't really determine anything apart from how many Smash games a franchise has existed for, and therefore how many opportunities a series has had to expand.

And that's the main reason some big series have lower numbers... they've just had fewer games to be around for, within a crossover that generally expands IPs in a measured pace, with exceptions being infrequent.

The only exception is Earthbound, and really only two names are even brought up anymore. Porky was brought up quite a bit, especially after he didn't get a Spirit in Ultimate. The other is Ninten, the protagonist of the first game, who is also occasionally brought up, although the community is divided over whether he should be an Echo of Ness or an entirely unique fighter.

 

[dream1ng]

The only exception is Earthbound, and really only two names are even brought up anymore. Porky was brought up quite a bit, especially after he didn't get a Spirit in Ultimate. The other is Ninten, the protagonist of the first game, who is also occasionally brought up, although the community is divided over whether he should be an Echo of Ness or an entirely unique fighter.

Porky was brought up mostly because people were reading too much into the spirit situation. Now that that doesn't really matter, you barely see him raised.

And Ninten is brought up as echo material, specifically when that's the purpose. And as every conversation about echoes goes, people argue that character should instead be unique. Divorced from that, seldom is Mother raised with serious expectation towards a new character.

 

[RileyXY1]

Porky was brought up mostly because people were reading too much into the spirit situation. Now that that doesn't really matter, you barely see him raised.

And Ninten is brought up as echo material, specifically when that's the purpose. And as every conversation about echoes goes, people argue that character should instead be unique. Divorced from that, seldom is Mother raised with serious expectation towards a new character.

Yeah. Porky was also brought up because people thought that the game would have a theme of Heroes vs. Villains solely based on the beginning of King K. Rool's reveal trailer. Now that and the whole Spirit situation ended up not being the case Porky's stock plummeted. Ninten is really the only new Mother rep who's even brought up anymore, and out of those series you listed Mother is the only one I can see getting a new rep, mostly due to how easy it would be to add Ninten to the game, even if he isn't an Echo Fighter.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Porky was brought up mostly because people were reading too much into the spirit situation. Now that that doesn't really matter, you barely see him raised.

And Ninten is brought up as echo material, specifically when that's the purpose. And as every conversation about echoes goes, people argue that character should instead be unique. Divorced from that, seldom is Mother raised with serious expectation towards a new character.

Even more than that, Mother is on the receiving end of talks about potentially losing a character again with Lucas, myself included lol

 

[ninjahmos]

Scrolling or not, I still think Flying Battery Zone would make a pretty cool stage.

 

[NintenRob]

I was quite a fan of 3D Land, I loved just how much they fit in it, it feels like the perfect core Mario aesthetic

 

[dream1ng]

Even more than that, Mother is on the receiving end of talks about potentially losing a character again with Lucas, myself included lol

True, and even more frequently than Mother (at least from what I've seen) - Kid Icarus and Star Fox.

Scrolling or not, I still think Flying Battery Zone would make a pretty cool stage.

My suspicion is whatever forces at work got us that Lost World stage will cause whatever new Sonic stage to reflect the current game at the time.

Though it's possible a Sonic newcomer supersedes that with a stage more directly related to themselves (excluding spin-offs, probably).

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Opinions on the scrolling stages:

Horrizontal:

• Mushroomy Kingdom: The layout is kinda eh, and as silly as World 1-1, but desert is, I honestly think it would look more interesting if it was 8-bit. I think I prefer the World 1-2 version more due to its chaos, and it's a crime that it was unceremoniously dropped from the stage.
• PAC-LAND: I don't think it's ugly lime most do, but even if I did that's kinda the least of its problems. The layout isn't super interesting until later in the level where it gets far too dangerous to keep fighting like normal. I'm all for chaos in casual stages, but you fight the stage itself a bit too often.

Vertical:

• Icicle Mountain: I haven't really played this stage, but the aesthetic is kinda awkward and drab. I'd be welcome to see what kind of glowup it'd get in a modern Smash title though.
• Rumble Falls: I never really had a problem with this stage, but I suspect that if it ever came back I'd have the same issues as I do with PAC-LAND where you fight the stage more than your opponents. Vertical scrolling kinda facilitates that more, and I don't even want to think about playing as Little Mac here.

Hybrid (Doesn't always scroll, also a transforming stage, etc.):

• Rainbow Cruise: It's pretty decent. I'm not a huge fan of fighting on tiny platforms, but it's got just enough room to make it work. I also like it as a 1v1 stage with hazards off.
• 3D Land: It's a bunch of dumb fun. I often come back to this one.
• Golden Plains: One of those stages that I never go to, but always feel like I should do so more. When I do, it's a bunch of fun. I like grabbing the coins, and traveling to the other layouts. Although, it's kind of more of a transformation stage than a scrolling stage...
• Dream Land GB: After playing it recently, I think it's OK. The environments are interesting kinda, but nothing super noteworthy. It's neat, and that's about it.

There actually aren't that many, and they all tend to be divisive. Thinking about it, I can see why: By default, you'll be fighting these stages more than you do with other stages since they want you to keep up with them. A decent chunk of them rip existing platformer levels and put them into Smash, which is pretty much always unpopular, so that doesn't help either.

 

[Diddy Kong]

The only exception is Earthbound, and really only two names are even brought up anymore. Porky was brought up quite a bit, especially after he didn't get a Spirit in Ultimate. The other is Ninten, the protagonist of the first game, who is also occasionally brought up, although the community is divided over whether he should be an Echo of Ness or an entirely unique fighter.

Claus also used to be quite often suggested. That ship has sailed now.

Nowadays it's indeed more about wether to cut Lucas or not.

Star Fox also used to be discussed quite a lot. Especially before Brawl. Wolf vs Krystal was the topic of the day. Nowadays? It's who to cut between Falco and Wolf, if not possibly both.

Funny how this goes.

I hope and pray Donkey Kong never ends up with a fate this horrible.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

True, and even more frequently than Mother (at least from what I've seen) - Kid Icarus and Star Fox.

Which I get for Star Fox because Wolf has been cut before so it's a possibility, never really been behind the Kid Icarus cut talk tbh, probably because it's just two unique characters and an Echo and Sakurai had a hand in putting these characters on the map lol

Also probably bias a little because Palutena was like one of my most wanted for Smash 4 lol

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Scrolling stages are fine.
The hate gimmick stages get cause they aren't Battlefield/Final Destination clones with a different background for "da freaking competitive!" is lame.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

My whole thing is that I think almost every series with more than one character will get at least one cut. Mario, Fire Emblem, and Pokémon have a ton of characters comparatively, so it's easy to downsize them. Star Fox, EarthBound, and Kid Icarus are inactive, and save for maybe Star Fox, will 100% continue to be inactive for a good long while, so they're probably the first ones on the chopping block. Donkey Kong and Metroid are probably in the best positions in this regard, but I do think it's possible that we could lose Zero Suit Samus and/or King K. Rool. And yeah, I know that King K. Rool is a huge fan pick, but I don't think that makes him immune to being cut if they just can't fit him in, and I highly doubt we'll be seeing all of the Ultimate fan picks in the next game.

Probably the only ones that aren't in (a ton of) danger of losing any are Animal Crossing and Xenoblade Chronicles, as they're fairly important series with only 2(ish) picks that are themselves intensely important to their series.

 

[Louie G.]

And yeah, I know that King K. Rool is a huge fan pick, but I don't think that makes him immune to being cut if they just can't fit him in, and I highly doubt we'll be seeing all of the Ultimate fan picks in the next game.

Well maybe not, but I would take into account the number of massive third parties we're probably losing and assume bringing back the biggest first-party pulls with otherwise no major obstacles in their way is the least they could do. Ridley, King K. Rool and Pyra / Mythra particularly come to mind.

I'm still not certain what the third party slate looks like next game, but I've seen your rosters and I know you're not afraid to chop them down quite a lot. Which is fair really, I've got no problem with it myself even if I can go back and forth on the whos and whats. But if we're going to go that hard toward the guest characters then I'd recognize losing a long awaited character like K. Rool or (however unlikely it would be) Ridley would just add tremendous insult to injury if we're losing some of the biggest of big names. Or if you're like me, you may even just value these guys above any guest character we got in Ultimate.

Time constraints happen and I could at least acknowledge that K. Rool isn't 100% locked. But I would still say between his ballot performance and being, at least from what I've seen, one of the most well-received and frequently played new characters in the game, it's likely that his return will be a fairly high priority. Especially if we're slated to lose like, half of our third party characters or more. An easy cushion to keep around for fans who may feel burnt by other hard losses.

As for Zero Suit Samus, I don't care what they do with her lol. Could go either way I guess.

 

[dream1ng]

Scrolling stages are fine.
The hate gimmick stages get cause they aren't Battlefield/Final Destination clones with a different background for "da freaking competitive!" is lame.

I'm no competitive Smasher, I just don't like having to divert so much attention to dealing with the stage instead of the actual fight. It's the same reason I (and many others) didn't receive the Smash 4 stage bosses warmly - because they were so intrusive.

I don't find gimmicks like that additive to the fight, more so disruptive. I have no problem with gimmicks that might alter the field but don't basically appropriate the fight, like Terry's stage, Frigate Orpheon, Spiral Mountain, etc. And those stages are typically banned competitively.

Which I get for Star Fox because Wolf has been cut before so it's a possibility, never really been behind the Kid Icarus cut talk tbh, probably because it's just two unique characters and an Echo and Sakurai had a hand in putting these characters on the map lol

Also probably bias a little because Palutena was like one of my most wanted for Smash 4 lol

I like Palutena too, but it is a pretty small series to have three characters. Even more so once the roster shrinks. There are going to be tough decisions made when cutting more than a handful of characters, and justifying priority if a sizeable chunk characters of are lost seems like a tall order.

And yeah Sakurai had a hand in shepherding or creating these characters... but I don't think he's going to invoke bias over them. If anything, judging by Kirby rolling solo til Brawl, he's even tougher on his own stuff. And I know it's not the same as a character, but he did already cut Magnus for no real reason.

My whole thing is that I think almost every series with more than one character will get at least one cut. Mario, Fire Emblem, and Pokémon have a ton of characters comparatively, so it's easy to downsize them. Star Fox, EarthBound, and Kid Icarus are inactive, and save for maybe Star Fox, will 100% continue to be inactive for a good long while, so they're probably the first ones on the chopping block. Donkey Kong and Metroid are probably in the best positions in this regard, but I do think it's possible that we could lose Zero Suit Samus and/or King K. Rool. And yeah, I know that King K. Rool is a huge fan pick, but I don't think that makes him immune to being cut if they just can't fit him in, and I highly doubt we'll be seeing all of the Ultimate fan picks in the next game.

Probably the only ones that aren't in (a ton of) danger of losing any are Animal Crossing and Xenoblade Chronicles, as they're fairly important series with only 2(ish) picks that are themselves intensely important to their series.

I agree, for the most part. I think the only two multi-character series that are fully safe are Animal Crossing and Kirby.

And, if it counts, the Miis. In theory they could be consolidated or downsized or something, but I think their lucrative costume market is going to keep them exactly as is.

 

[Louie G.]

Also probably bias a little because Palutena was like one of my most wanted for Smash 4 lol

I've meditated on it for a while and decided I kind of think Palutena is safe. I'm a bit biased myself, she was one of my MW and Uprising is one of my favorite Nintendo games. But I put aside that bias for a while to assume that yeah, Kid Icarus is a small series, it seems fairly plausible that it would lose one of its characters. It's still kind of reasonable to believe that.

But Palutena is a popular character, both highly requested in her time and now well-appreciated among fans, fairly common to see being picked up. As a staff user, she's fulfilling a pretty unique archetype - as is her identity as a celestial goddess, having all-powerful characters in Smash is a flavor that I think does a number for the roster dynamically. Over time I believe she's kind of fit herself snugly into a Sheik or Falco kind of role. Not untouchable, but also not a character I think they're in a particular rush to remove. I know we gotta get stingy here... you can make a case for anyone on the roster to stay. But I'm certain there will be some "outliers" that people expect to be cut who are able to survive for any number of reasons. Palutena is one of those that I'm willing to bank on.

Probably the most compelling point to me is that if Palutena's Guidances return, which I think they probably will (?), we can assume expenses are already being dealt toward contracting Palutena's voice actor in every region... and I don't know, at that point, why kick her to the curb? If nothing else, Palutena having a distinct presence in the game by default assures me that in the instance of a cut, she is still one of the first veterans to return as DLC. Seems unnecessary to me if we're already reusing assets from previous games (highly likely), and putting time and expense toward Palutena already, to cut that character pretty much just because Kid Icarus is dormant. It would feel like going out of their way to do so.

 

[BrawlX10]

I'm also in strong favor of an overhauled stage lineup. I think we'll see a healthy blend of old and new with mind to series that haven't gotten much new material to work with, but I wouldn't mind letting most of the big series - Mario, Zelda, Kirby etc - let most of their stages sit out this time around.

I feel like the returning stages to watch may be those with a surge in relevance - Prism Tower comes to mind, since the next Pokemon Legends game will bring focus back to Kalos. Or Guar Plains may have reason to stick around with XBC: DE in the rear view. Would be cool to get some new locations from these games too but since both Pokemon and Xenoblade have brand new games to account for, I assume most of the effort will be dealt toward those. I want to shout out Mute City SNES too, kind of a weird stage but feels retroactively very fitting post-F-Zero 99.

Star Fox, Mother, Kid Icarus, Punch-Out etc may just work with what they've got, although I think those middle two (Mother and Kid Icarus) have a slew of great options if they feel like trying something else out. A Saturn Valley stage feels well overdue and there's obviously no shortage of Uprising chapters that new stages could be built around. With the favorable treatment both of these series have gotten through the years I wouldn't count it out. But I'd say these legacy series should probably be the highest priority when it comes to returning stages. And yknow, stuff like Flat Zone X.

Looking at Brawl and Smash 4 new stage roster, it does seem like they add both new stages from recent games and a few new stages from older games, the later seemengly random ones like Pac-Land or Summit or from iconic, well-known retro games like 75m or Mario Bros. , so i say it's entirely possible we get a new stage from F-Zero, Earthbound, ARMS, Kid Icarus, WiiFit and Star Fox for exampl, probably not many of them, but they're still very much possible loooking at previous games stage rosters, the only ones i can't see getting new stages is stuff lik Punch-Out or Duck Hunt, Game & Watch can still get a new version of Flat Zone, i guess.

As for returning stages, like i said before stuff like Duck Hunt and Boxing Ring, as they're series from little stage material. Ice Climber could get a new stage still i think, like a replica from a stage the OG game, but we could get Summit back (or Icicle Mountain if they want us to suffer). I wouldn't be surprised if Smashville or Town and City return as they're very popular. Wii Fit studio could also return, but i think we could get one of the minigames as stages too.
For 3rd parties, that's when it gets trciky, if Steve returns, i think Minecraft World it's 100% returning. If Cloud returns, I don't see Northern Cave returning at all, probably just Midgar again, but i guess we could get another new FF7 stage like Cosmo Canyon or Gold Saucer instead of Midgar, tho. The fghting game characters stages are a coin toss, I think KoF Stadium is the most likely to stay, i could see Suzaku getting replaced by another SF2 stage, but i could see it return bc its extremely iconic and it's Ryu's stage. Mishima Dojo i could see getting replaced by the Arena from Tekken 8. Banjo and Persona also 50/50 in getting their stage back or a new one. I think Dragon Quest will keep Yggdrasil's Altar, through, but i could see them going for Dragonlords Castle or Baramos Caslte or something.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Seems unnecessary to me if we're already reusing assets from previous games (highly likely), and putting time and expense toward Palutena already, to cut that character pretty much just because Kid Icarus is dormant. It would feel like going out of their way to do so.

Honestly, the bit about reusing assets (mostly character-wise in my mind because of my stage opinions) alongside Namco making dedicated studios exclusively for working with Nintendo and, if this game is the 2021 project plan (which I'm dubious on, but for the sake of argument), a dev time of more than four years assuming a 2026 release makes me really think that this Smash will have a bigger roster than we think.

This is all assuming that project plan is in fact Smash of course (because imagining a world where this plan isn't Smash and Sakurai is NOT doubling up on projects is a rough thing to think about considering it would mean speculating with very minimal info for another like 2-3 years, although it would mean we have more options from the tail end of the Switch obviously lmao).

 

[Captain Shwampy]

I think all Sakurai directed game characters are sticking around.
Its the third parties that are getting massive cuts. Meeting up with companies, getting the rights, how the character needs to be presented, music licensing, etc. Its a massive hurdle for dev time.

Ultimate had the benefit of prepping most of third parties from smash 4 for Ultimate.

 

[dream1ng]

Ultimate had the benefit of prepping most of third parties from smash 4 for Ultimate.

I mean... the six that carried over, sure. But then they added twelve. And now they have all those bridges built.

Don't get me wrong, I do think the third-parties are a category that will receive a disproportionately high number of cuts, and I do think even the vets are a lot of work outside development itself to add... but, unless the company goes through some crazy overhaul, the hardest stage of negotiating and implementation for the vets is the first time.

Like, the argument that a third-party will be cut because they were hard to get overlooks that at this point they will only be easier to get.

And fwiw, Sakurai still does most of the things you listed for first-parties too.

I think all Sakurai directed game characters are sticking around.

I think Sakurai bias is far more elusive than it's suggested to be.

 

[Watuna4343]

I've meditated on it for a while and decided I kind of think Palutena is safe. I'm a bit biased myself, she was one of my MW and Uprising is one of my favorite Nintendo games. But I put aside that bias for a while to assume that yeah, Kid Icarus is a small series, it seems fairly plausible that it would lose one of its characters. It's still kind of reasonable to believe that.

But Palutena is a popular character, both highly requested in her time and now well-appreciated among fans, fairly common to see being picked up. As a staff user, she's fulfilling a pretty unique archetype - as is her identity as a celestial goddess, having all-powerful characters in Smash is a flavor that I think does a number for the roster dynamically. Over time I believe she's kind of fit herself snugly into a Sheik or Falco kind of role. Not untouchable, but also not a character I think they're in a particular rush to remove. I know we gotta get stingy here... you can make a case for anyone on the roster to stay. But I'm certain there will be some "outliers" that people expect to be cut who are able to survive for any number of reasons. Palutena is one of those that I'm willing to bank on.

Probably the most compelling point to me is that if Palutena's Guidances return, which I think they probably will (?), we can assume expenses are already being dealt toward contracting Palutena's voice actor in every region... and I don't know, at that point, why kick her to the curb? If nothing else, Palutena having a distinct presence in the game by default assures me that in the instance of a cut, she is still one of the first veterans to return as DLC. Seems unnecessary to me if we're already reusing assets from previous games (highly likely), and putting time and expense toward Palutena already, to cut that character pretty much just because Kid Icarus is dormant. It would feel like going out of their way to do so.

I both agree and disagree with this. While Palutena is a popular character, and while she uses her staff and obviously there's Sakurai bias, she's hardly as safe. Here's the thing, of course Sakurai won't run to cut her or something, she's not like the lowest hanging fruit there is, but she's got some pretty significant issues to her; she's from a dormant franchise that doesn't have a foreseeable future, her uniqueness is triumphed by other characters' own niches (if anything the custom moves of Smash 4 were more her 'thing' but with them removed she's hardly a unicorn), also while still with having popularity, she's not arguably as popular as some other characters. And on the Nintendo side of things there's characters who have far more to offer to Smash either as Nintendo/gaming/Smash icons, or reps of significant eras or milestones for Nintendo, way more unique characters, more popular ones or more requested ones. Palutena doesn't quite strike hard in these categories (even among the most requested ones - as from my understanding it's most that she was very expected rather than very requested - not to say that there weren't people who wanted her but looks like the consensus was less of a 'we need Palutena' and more of a 'yeah, she's probably happening' situation).

And I'm not sure if that many assets from her are reusable from Palutena's guidance. Voice clips by and large get reused but voice clips are one thing, they'd still need to spend time and resources into tranferring and updating a character, and Palutena is a non-clone so she has no ease of development on top of the aforementioned issues.

The TL;DR of it all basically is; It is a fact that Palutena has Sakurai's bias in her favor, but it's also a fact that an inevitable point will come when deciding who stays when it will be hard for Sakurai to justify keeping her over many other characters.

 

[Royaru]

If anyone really thinks Sakurai is going to cut any of his characters, they really don't know Sakurai or Smash itself.
I recommend playing Kirby Super Star or Kid Icarus Uprising to understand how much both games have influenced Smash and how unlikely it is that he will cut any of his characters.

I think all Sakurai directed game characters are sticking around.
Its the third parties that are getting massive cuts. Meeting up with companies, getting the rights, how the character needs to be presented, music licensing, etc. Its a massive hurdle for dev time.

Ultimate had the benefit of prepping most of third parties from smash 4 for Ultimate.

I totally agree with you. People tend to say that next smash will cut a lot of first party characters mainly, but the most likey scenario is that they will cut a lot of third partys. Those most likely to be in the base game are perhaps .
The rest of the veteran TP characters are VERY likely going to be sold as DLC, especially considering all the licenses that come with it. It's cheaper for Nintendo and they'll easily generate more revenue. On the other hand, I think the next Smash will have 2-3 TP characters, they must be from VERY well-known series to attract more attention. Characters from games like Monster Hunter (which is the most likely due to its popularity in Japan), Hollow Knight, Elden Ring or Undertale would be in that line.

 

[BritishGuy54]

Third parties are going to be interesting to see next game. Can a third party be okay with losing a character? Will we see some be swapped out for others?

I think the safest ones to keep would be (sorry fans).

Just under these guys are and . I see little reason for them to be cut unless the roster was really tight next game.

I’m skeptical on coming back. We’ll have to see whether M-rated characters being affected by the ESRB’s advertising rules would affect other aspects of the game, or these three returning.

I’m 50/50 on . I don’t see much reason for him to be cut, I’m kind of struggling to see anyone else from SNK besides Mai making for good second rep considering even Terry had the ‘literally who?’ comments.

I think might not return. If Snake isn’t coming back, I’m thinking Simon may not as well. Castlevania is just lower on the priority list for me. And is likely gone too.

is likely cut. Street Fighter and other Capcom series have a lot of other options available. He’s the most unique echo. Does that make him high priority? Or low priority?

I’m more confident will return without . Microsoft have a lot of choices under their belts, but how many of them are appealing to Sakurai? Minecraft in the base game would likely get a good amount of new content, such as Assist Trophies.

could be DLC again. If there’s any company I expect to join after the project plan is done, it’s Square Enix. I think likely won’t be returning. I don’t think it’s completely game over for , but I wouldn’t count on him returning.

Yeah, third parties are complicated. Maybe don’t expect the next game to be more third-party centered than Ultimate.

Something a else to add:
I think stages like Super Mario Maker and Minecraft World are prime candidates to get the sequel stage treatment Pokémon Stadium and Flat Zone got in Brawl.

New styles and themes for Mario Maker 2 (or even 3), and new biomes for Minecraft would be cool.

 

[Perkilator]

Re: Stages

I think the 3DS game has some of my favorite stages in the whole series, and so because of that, I’d like to see it be the gold standard for how stages are designed next game.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

I'm thinking Donkey Kong keeps all its characters. Diddy is too important to the series, and keeps appearing in Mario games as well. And Rool was too big of a request. If he was cut, there'd be a bunch of rallying to bring him back.

 

[BritishGuy54]

I'm thinking Donkey Kong keeps all its characters. Diddy is too important to the series, and keeps appearing in Mario games as well. And Rool was too big of a request. If he was cut, there'd be a bunch of rallying to bring him back.

I’m not too sure on the chances of .

I’m struggling to see DK justify anymore than three characters, and if all three come back, I don’t see a lot of room for a new DK addition like Dixie or Cranky.

 

[Diddy Kong]

My whole thing is that I think almost every series with more than one character will get at least one cut. Mario, Fire Emblem, and Pokémon have a ton of characters comparatively, so it's easy to downsize them. Star Fox, EarthBound, and Kid Icarus are inactive, and save for maybe Star Fox, will 100% continue to be inactive for a good long while, so they're probably the first ones on the chopping block. Donkey Kong and Metroid are probably in the best positions in this regard, but I do think it's possible that we could lose Zero Suit Samus and/or King K. Rool. And yeah, I know that King K. Rool is a huge fan pick, but I don't think that makes him immune to being cut if they just can't fit him in, and I highly doubt we'll be seeing all of the Ultimate fan picks in the next game.

Probably the only ones that aren't in (a ton of) danger of losing any are Animal Crossing and Xenoblade Chronicles, as they're fairly important series with only 2(ish) picks that are themselves intensely important to their series.

I can see this being realistic if you think there are gonna be heavy cuts. But I don't think there will be that many. If any at all.

I wouldn't count K.Rool or Zero Suit Samus amongst the cuts however. I do have other controversial picks of course.

 

[Dinoman96]

It's kinda funny that Ridley is basically the one "Ultimate fan pick" pretty much every one agrees will come back. I've seen plenty of people cut Banjo, K. Rool and especially Sora, but Ridley is pretty much the one no one has any issue in seeing come back.

 

[Gengar84]

K. Rool was my Smash Ballot pick and Sephiroth is one of my favorite game characters ever that I never expected in Smash. It’s going to be pretty hard to be excited for the next game if neither comes back.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I agree, for the most part. I think the only two multi-character series that are fully safe are Animal Crossing and Kirby.

And, if it counts, the Miis. In theory they could be consolidated or downsized or something, but I think their lucrative costume market is going to keep them exactly as is.

I forgot about Kirby and the Miis. I agree that they're probably not losing any characters either.

I can see this being realistic if you think there are gonna be heavy cuts. But I don't think there will be that many. If any at all.

I wouldn't count K.Rool or Zero Suit Samus amongst the cuts however. I do have other controversial picks of course.

My problem is this: We know that the next game is highly likely to not reach Ultimate's roster count or 69. We know that even doing both versions of SSB4, they still got 49 characters, so assuming they're not doing anything like that, it's likely we'll get more than this. Given that, somewhere between 50-60 sounds the most reasonable. Factor in the general amount of newcomers being ~15 though, and one of the complaints for Ultimate being its base roster newcomers, and it's likely that we'll get at least twelve. This means our veteran roster is going from 82 to 35-48. That's at minimum, 34 cuts; over a third of the roster.

I guess I'm just now realizing that I actually do expect heavy cuts. In fact, unless we're porting Ultimate, there really isn't a scenario in which we don't.

 

[Gengar84]

I forgot about Kirby and the Miis. I agree that they're probably not losing any characters either.


My problem is this: We know that the next game is highly likely to not reach Ultimate's roster count or 69. We know that even doing both versions of SSB4, they still got 49 characters, so assuming they're not doing anything like that, it's likely we'll get more than this. Given that, somewhere between 50-60 sounds the most reasonable. Factor in the general amount of newcomers being ~15 though, and one of the complaints for Ultimate being its base roster newcomers, and it's likely that we'll get at least twelve. This means our veteran roster is going from 82 to 35-48. That's at minimum, 34 cuts; over a third of the roster.

I guess I'm just now realizing that I actually do expect heavy cuts. In fact, unless we're porting Ultimate, there really isn't a scenario in which we don't.

Do we know that though? Sakurai said he didn’t think they’d be able to pull off “Everyone is Here” again, not that the roster would be drastically smaller if I remember correctly. The huge variety of characters to play is a big selling point in Smash. The crossover appeal is diminished the farther we scale back the roster. I just don’t see a 50 character roster happening. If we’re expecting around 15 or so newcomers, that leaves us with only 35 veterans. That’s less than half of Ultimate’s veterans returning. You can still have a large roster and make several cuts at the same time.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Do we know that though? Sakurai said he didn’t think they’d be able to pull off “Everyone is Here” again, not that the roster would be drastically smaller if I remember correctly. The huge variety of characters to play is a big selling point in Smash. The huge crossover appeal is diminished the farther we scale back the roster. I just don’t see a 50 character roster happening. If we’re expecting around 15 or so newcomers, that leaves us with only 35 veterans. That’s less than half of Ultimate’s veterans returning. You can still have a large roster and make several cuts at the same time.

IIRC, the reason given for why "Everyone is Here!" was such a problem was due to the sheer number of characters being a huge drain on dev time.

50 I think is like, the bear minimum, but I don't think we'll be approaching 70 like we did last time.