Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[PlasmaDam]

"The next Smash should focus less on third parties" dudes when the Next game has Alear mewoscarda and Pauline instead of Bandana waddle dee or Dixie kong

 

[Perkilator]

Again, we can can use the Rider from MH Stories as our playable MH rep so that both Monster and Hunter can be playable. Really, I don’t care whether they’re a nameless avatar or not. As long as a character has interesting moveset potential, then I’ll support their inclusion no matter what.

 

[Gengar84]

Again, we can can use the Rider from MH Stories as our playable MH rep so that both Monster and Hunter can be playable. Really, I don’t care whether they’re a nameless avatar or not. As long as a character has interesting moveset potential, then I’ll support their inclusion no matter what.

Yeah, the rider from Stories would be my top pick as well. I actually completed Monster Hunter Stories 2 and had a lot of fun with it. Though, even then I liked Kayna more than the protagonist but I’m aware she has no shot. Like I said, I’m not opposed to them at all, they’re just not among my most wanted. I know that’s purely a personal preference thing.

 

[DarthEnderX]

If Waluigi got his own video game series, what genre would it be in your opinion?

Waluigi's Wrecking Crew.

Destroying stuff for money is thematically resonant with Luigi. And it revives a retro Nintendo franchise.

My biggest problem with Monster Hunter is the fact that it’s another nameless avatar character.

Unless it's a Felyne!

 

[Guynamednelson]

"The next Smash should focus less on third parties" dudes when the Next game has Alear mewoscarda and Pauline instead of Bandana waddle dee or Dixie kong

What's stopping the base game from adding all of them? They usually have room for 15 unique newcomers, and you listed 5 characters.

 

[Gengar84]

Waluigi's Wrecking Crew.

Destroying stuff for money is thematically resonant with Luigi. And it revives a retro Nintendo franchise.

Unless it's a Felyne!

As long as it’s not the one from Stories 2. “GO NUTS FOR DOUGHNUTS!”

 

[PeridotGX]

Interesting you put Officer Howard, Undertale and Sol Badguy so high. I feel like Astral Chain is a bit too small to be considered a lock, especially taking into account all the issues with Platinum. I don’t think I’m confident enough to put any third party character at 80% and Sol does have a lot of competition if they want another fighting game character. Undertale is a very popular indie game and got some attention in Ultimate but I’d hesitate to call it a lock. They’d all be pretty cool and Officer Howard is one of my most wanted first party characters but I’m not quite as confident in them. They could definitely still happen though.

I might be over--rating Astral Chain a bit, but I think it being a moderately successful new IP gives it a boost. There aren't a ton of them, and I think Nintendo would want to boost what they have.

I've been adamant about an UT/DR character for a while. The game has maintained it's popularity very well (especially in Japan), Toby and Sakurai seem to get along, the Sans mii costume broke the internet. I don’t really see a reason not to.

I think Sol Badguy is likely because we've been getting a new fighting game character with every wave of content (Ryu, Terry, Kazuya), and Guilty Gear is probably the most popular series left (aside from Mortal Kombat, which isn't overly popular in Japan). We might get Soulcalibur or another character from one of the series already in first, but I don't think that would stop Sol from happening eventually. He'd probably be DLC.

 

[Dinoman96]

This is actually why I kinda hope that the project plan thing Sakurai has been said to come up with in mid 2021 is actually indeed Smash, because as mentioned in this thread here that could possibly lead to a lot of the often predicted Switch era candidates (Alear, Oachi, etc) missing the boat and thus potentially forcing Sakurai to perhaps look back at older characters (perhaps even looking back at the Smash ballot) like Isaac, Dixie, Skull Kid, etc which I'd honestly be more excited for. Honestly stuff like FE, Xenoblade and whatever can saved for DLC (same thing with the big hype third party stuff).

I sure am evil and selfish, hahahahahaha

 

[Ivander]

Monster Hunter may have a cool moveset, but they are still a boring blank slate Avatar character

Most Avatars wish that they had as much personality as the Monster Hunter, between outright exploding bombs with their giant sword, triumphantly showcasing their well-cooked steak to the heavens shouting "So Tasty!", being so confidant in killing the giant world-ending monster that they pose after every healing item to give the monster some chance before they kick the monster to death with barefeet and having a stomach capable of rivalling Kirby.
That would be the Monster Hunter newcomer trailer. Just Monster Hunter and Kirby having a speed-eating contest.

 

[Wonder Smash]

I think that ryu hayabusa it's the second most likely third party character only because Monster Hunter it's the most likely one imo.

I don't see what makes Monster Hunter the most likely third party character.

 

[Gengar84]

Monster Hunter may have a cool moveset, but they are still a boring blank slate Avatar character

Most Avatars wish that they had as much personality as the Monster Hunter, between outright exploding bombs with their giant sword, triumphantly showcasing their well-cooked steak to the heavens shouting "So Tasty!", being so confidant in killing the giant world-ending monster that they pose after every healing item to give the monster some chance before they kick the monster to death with barefeet and having a stomach capable of rivalling Kirby.
That would be the Monster Hunter newcomer trailer. Just Monster Hunter and Kirby having a speed-eating contest.

That’s fair. Maybe I wasn’t giving them a fair shot because the only Monster Hunter game I’ve beaten is Stories 2 and that character didn’t have that same personality you’re describing from the main series. I was able to make him look pretty cool and I did enjoy my time with the game so I’m perfectly fine with it. I just have a bit of a personal bias against avatars. Not that I hate them or anything, just that I have a harder time connecting with them. That said, a blank avatar isn’t really any worse in theory than a Pokemon or mook like Piranha Plant when you think about it so I’m probably being a bit unfair in my biases.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

This is actually why I kinda hope that the project plan thing Sakurai has been said to come up with in mid 2021 is actually indeed Smash, because as mentioned in this thread here that could possibly lead to a lot of the often predicted Switch era candidates (Alear, Oachi, etc) missing the boat and thus potentially forcing Sakurai to perhaps look back at older characters (perhaps even looking back at the Smash ballot) like Isaac, Dixie, Skull Kid, etc which I'd honestly be more excited for. Honestly stuff like FE, Xenoblade and whatever can saved for DLC (same thing with the big hype third party stuff).

I sure am evil and selfish, hahahahahaha

Sorry to burst your bubble, but that still wouldn't "force him to look back".

You're focused on the characters that didn't exist yet and ignoring the other games that would have been contemporary after the roster for Ultimate was finalized.

 

[Gengar84]

I don’t think we have to worry much about Sakurai abandoning legacy characters in favor of purely promotional picks. Smash has always had a pretty decent balance of old and new. I want a ton of older characters too but I don’t think a later development window kills their chances.

 

[Dinoman96]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but that still wouldn't "force him to look back".

You're focused on the characters that didn't exist yet and ignoring the other games that would have been contemporary after the roster for Ultimate was finalized.

FTR I was being a little facetious when I said that. But now that you bring it up, what potential characters/games would qualify for that timeframe? Ring Fit Adventure and I suppose Astral Chain come to mind.

 

[dezeray112]

I think that ryu hayabusa it's the second most likely third party character only because Monster Hunter it's the most likely one imo.

I think that Ryu Hayabusa is the most likely third party character to represent the Koei-Tecmo franchise for Smash.

 

[Gengar84]

FTR I was being a little facetious when I said that. But now that you bring it up, what potential characters/games would qualify for that timeframe? Ring Fit Adventure and I suppose Astral Chain come to mind.

That timeframe is one reason I think Jinx has a pretty good shot. Arcane was released late 2021 so it was very relevant around that time. I also think Alphen/Shionne from Tales of Arise and Hisuian Zoroark benefit quite a bit from that timeframe. Arise came out mid 2021 and was the best selling Tales game in a long time. It helped revitalized the series and brought it into the mainstream. Legends Arceus came out early in 2022 and was hugely praised with Hisuian Zoroark being the most pushed Pokemon from that game.

 

[Kirbeh]

Question for everyone. How likely do you think a beta test is for the next Smash. Closed or open, doesn't matter, just do you think a beta of any kind is on the table?

Personally, I'm thinking no, but that's also the pessimist in me that doesn't think the online will be of much priority or improved at all.

 

[The Prankster 16]

Question for everyone. How likely do you think a beta test is for the next Smash. Closed or open, doesn't matter, just do you think a beta of any kind is on the table?

Personally, I'm thinking no, but that's also the pessimist in me that doesn't think the online will be of much priority or improved at all.

I think it's out of the question. With how much speculation and leaks there are during Smash season, I don't think they'd ever take a risk that big. Splatoon and Arms get betas becuase what are people going to datamine from that? "Oh they added a few new guns, that's cool ig."

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

FTR I was being a little facetious when I said that. But now that you bring it up, what characters/games would qualify for that timeframe? Ring Fit Adventure and I suppose Astral Chain come to mind.

Various Mario games (Waluigi, Toadette, Pauline, Kamek, whatever; just not Geno since remake is too late), various Kirby games (Bandana Dee), Breath of the Wild/Age of Calamity (Master Kohga), Tropical Freeze's Switch port (Funky, Dixie), Famicom Detective Club remakes (Ayumi), Splatoon 2 (Octoling), etc.

Outside of the token new Pokémon (which in this scenario would be from the then upcoming Scarlet and Violet), the token "surprise character", and the new Third Parties, there's enough to work with between December of 2015 (when Smash Ultimate's project proposal was drafted) and July 2021 (when the new project proposal was made) to have a contemporary set of newcomers like Brawl and Smash For did.

Being "contemporary" doesn't mean they had to have DEBUTED in the timeframe. Just that they were relevant.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but that still wouldn't "force him to look back".

You're focused on the characters that didn't exist yet and ignoring the other games that would have been contemporary after the roster for Ultimate was finalized.

Sorry to burst your bubble, but they have to fill all those newcomer slots with some things that are neither first-parties too recent for Ultimate nor third-parties.

Even Smash 4 wasn't that blatant, and both Nintendo and third-parties benefit from having the overwhelming majority of the latter be DLC, Nintendo by not having to worry about spending too much on one single game, third-parties by earning more from DLC sales.

 

[Noipoi]

Lot of bursting bubbles in here today

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Lot of bursting bubbles in here today

Bubble Bobble confirmed?

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

These are the characters I think are pretty much locks (I'd give them over a 95% chance if RTC was still a thing)

• Waluigi
• New Animal Crossing character
• Octoling
• New Pokemon
• Legonis (Astral Chain)
• Ring Fit Adventure character
• Undertale/Deltarune character

And there are a few characters that I think are extremely likely, but I hesitate to call them locks (probably like an 80% in RTC)

• Bandana Dee
• New Xenoblade character
• New Sonic character
• Sol Badguy

Of course, going into Ultimate I thought Decidueye and Bandana Dee were locks, so my radar on this sort of thing is way off.

95% chance for a new AC character sounds like a wild overestimation to me. Like yeah I get that the franchise is huge now but by that logic we definitely should've had a new Zelda character in Smash 4, let alone Ultimate. Maybe you could argue the two series aren't really in the same position but we should also ask what this third Animal Crossing character could bring to the table that Villager and Isabelle wouldn't be able to provide. They'd really have to think of something cause I doubt recognizability would cut it at this point. Tom Nook and K.K are already both in the game in some form or another so it's not as if the franchise is really hurting in the representation department.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Bubble Bobble confirmed?

Bubble Bobble, Double Dribble, Double Dragon, F-Zero.

.

Even Smash 4 wasn't that blatant, and both Nintendo and third-parties benefit from having the overwhelming majority of the latter be DLC, Nintendo by not having to worry about spending too much on one single game, third-parties by earning more from DLC sales.

This is likely true but not necessarily confirmed. We don’t really know the split, it’s just speculation. However, that doesn’t mean that Nintendo wouldn’t put up whatever money was absolutely necessary to acquire characters at any point in the games life, 90% of the reported issues that have come with 3rd Parties is licensing. Like the music in FFVII for instance, is technically owned by multiple companies and individuals around the world. It just took time and they were finally able to do it with Sephiroth after 5-6 years.

 

[dream1ng]

Bub & Bob would be good ATs

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but they have to fill all those newcomer slots with some things that are neither first-parties too recent for Ultimate nor third-parties.

Even Smash 4 wasn't that blatant, and both Nintendo and third-parties benefit from having the overwhelming majority of the latter be DLC, Nintendo by not having to worry about spending too much on one single game, third-parties by earning more from DLC sales.

I'm going to actually un-ignore you for once to address this because once again you've blatantly wrong about something.

All of Smash For's roster for first parties? Barring the token Pokémon and the token "surprise character" , both of which are noted exceptions for different reasons? All had relevance between when Brawl's project proposal was made (7/7/05) and when Smash For's was made (4/26/12).
Why is this important? Because anything past July of 2005 could not have had any influence until AFTER Brawl.

Let me break this down for you since I've actually been keeping track of this ****.

:
Animal Crossing: Wild World (11/23/05)
Animal Crossing: City Folk (11/16/08 in NA, 11/20/08 in Japan)

:
Wii Fit (12/1/07)
Wii Fit Plus (10/1/09)

:
Super Mario Galaxy (11/1/07)
Mario Kart Wii (4/10/08)
Super Mario Galaxy 2 (5/23/10 in NA, 5/27/08 in Japan)
Mario Kart 7 (11/1/11) [Rosalina only]

This does not include when it's only Luma, in which case I'd have to include both versions of Mario & Sonic at the 2012 London Olympic Games and Fortune Street.

:
Punch-Out!! (Wii) (5/18/09 in NA, 7/23/09 in Japan)

This is excluding his role in Captain Rainbow as well as Doc Louis' Punch-Out!! as that was only released in North America for WiiWare and would have been ignored.

:
Do I even need to cover this? We'd be here all day.

:
Kid Icarus Uprising (3/22/12)

:
Fire Emblem Awakening (4/19/12)

:
Xenoblade Chronicles (6/10/10)

:
New Super Mario Bros. (5/15/06 in NA, 5/25/06 in Japan)
Super Mario Galaxy (see Rosalina)
New Super Mario Bros. Wii (11/15/09 in NA, 13/3/09 in Japan) NOTE: This is where the Jr. Clown Car came from; as in the primary influence for Jr. in Smash
Super Mario Galaxy 2 (see Rosalina)
Too many side games to list


And for ****s and grins, let's cover the Chorus Kids since they were planned but scrapped:
Rhythm Heaven/Rhythm Tengoku Gold (7/31/08)



The roster wasn't "filled out by older irrelevant characters" like you so desperately want to claim.
Both Brawl and Smash For's rosters were filled with characters that were contemporary with very few exceptions. And I mean VERY few. Just the token new Pokémon (and even then Lucario had an upcoming movie), the token "surprise characters", and Pit, who had a Famicom Mini release of his game on the GBA in 2004 which barely counts.


Just because Ultimate brought back K. Rool and Dark Samus explicitly because of the Ballot when they hadn't had games in over a decade doesn't change the norm.


Now back to ignoring you.

 

[Gengar84]

I'm going to actually un-ignore you for once to address this because once again you've blatantly wrong about something.

All of Smash For's roster for first parties? Barring the token Pokémon and the token "surprise character" , both of which are noted exceptions for different reasons? All had relevance between when Brawl's project proposal was made (7/7/05) and when Smash For's was made (4/26/12).
Why is this important? Because anything past July of 2005 could not have had any influence until AFTER Brawl.

Let me break this down for you since I've actually been keeping track of this ****.

:
Animal Crossing: Wild World (11/23/05)
Animal Crossing: City Folk (11/16/08 in NA, 11/20/08 in Japan)

:
Wii Fit (12/1/07)
Wii Fit Plus (10/1/09)

:
Super Mario Galaxy (11/1/07)
Mario Kart Wii (4/10/08)
Super Mario Galaxy 2 (5/23/10 in NA, 5/27/08 in Japan)
Mario Kart 7 (11/1/11) [Rosalina only]

This does not include when it's only Luma, in which case I'd have to include both versions of Mario & Sonic at the 2012 London Olympic Games and Fortune Street.

:
Punch-Out!! (Wii) (5/18/09 in NA, 7/23/09 in Japan)

This is excluding his role in Captain Rainbow as well as Doc Louis' Punch-Out!! as that was only released in North America for WiiWare and would have been ignored.

:
Do I even need to cover this? We'd be here all day.

:
Kid Icarus Uprising (3/22/12)

:
Fire Emblem Awakening (4/19/12)

:
Xenoblade Chronicles (6/10/10)

:
New Super Mario Bros. (5/15/06 in NA, 5/25/06 in Japan)
Super Mario Galaxy (see Rosalina)
New Super Mario Bros. Wii (11/15/09 in NA, 13/3/09 in Japan) NOTE: This is where the Jr. Clown Car came from; as in the primary influence for Jr. in Smash
Super Mario Galaxy 2 (see Rosalina)
Too many side games to list


And for ****s and grins, let's cover the Chorus Kids since they were planned but scrapped:
Rhythm Heaven/Rhythm Tengoku Gold (7/31/08)



The roster wasn't "filled out by older irrelevant characters" like you so desperately want to claim.
Both Brawl and Smash For's rosters were filled with characters that were contemporary with very few exceptions. And I mean VERY few. Just the token new Pokémon (and even then Lucario had an upcoming movie), the token "surprise characters", and Pit, who had a Famicom Mini release of his game on the GBA in 2004 which barely counts.


Just because Ultimate brought back K. Rool and Dark Samus explicitly because of the Ballot when they hadn't had games in over a decade doesn't change the norm.


Now back to ignoring you.

Maybe I missed something, but that seemed unnecessarily abrasive. I do agree that Smash 4 focused too heavily on modern promotional picks for the base roster but they made up for that with the DLC and third parties in general. Mega Man, Ryu, Cloud, and Pac-Man are timeless fan favorites and really kept the roster from feeling entirely promotional. I don’t really want to see a repeat of focusing too heavily on recent characters at the expense of everything else. I think Smash is best as a celebration of gaming history, both old and new.

 

[Guynamednelson]

but that seemed unnecessarily abrasive

"Realism" is really just Riley's shtick with extra hostility if you really think about it.

Riley just says "I don't think X will happen" while a "realist" goes "X will never happen in a million years so shut up and want my MW"

 

[Dinoman96]

It's actually like that for Ultimate too, funny enough. Of its five non-echo first party newcomers, both Inkling and Isabelle came from recent popular games that predated the deadline, December 15th 2015 in this case. Incineroar once again fits into the "token Pokemon" slot.

Of course K. Rool and Ridley got in cuz of the Smash ballot. Funny enough the latter character actually was technically relevant again via Samus Returns (a remake of a game that didn't even have him originally) which came in 2017, but I'm gonna assume Sakurai probably wasn't influenced by that.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

It's actually like that for Ultimate too, funny enough. Of its five non-echo first party newcomers, both Inkling and Isabelle came from recent popular games that predated the deadline, December 15th 2015 in this case. Incineroar once again fits into the "token Pokemon" slot.

Of course K. Rool and Ridley got in cuz of the Smash ballot. Funny enough the latter character actually was technically relevant again via Samus Returns (a remake of a game that didn't even have him originally) which came in 2017, but I'm gonna assume Sakurai probably wasn't influenced by that.

And then the DLC was all huge third party names (and yes I still posit that Joker was a huge name because Persona 5 was humongous) and three first party characters, two from 2017 (Min-Min and Pyra) and one from 2019 (Byleth).

Like Smash going for relevant options even if they're not necessarily NEW is the usual thing since Brawl. There have been a few exceptions, and I feel like a character like Isaac would be one of those exceptions (plus my light copium for something like Rhythm Heaven because of a previous attempt or Starfy), but like most of the next game's newcomers will likely be characters that have made some kind of appearance since Ultimate's project plan was drafted.

 

[Geno Boost]

i think Meowth is one of the few nintendo characters that have missed the boat despite his importance to the Pokémon series due to the constant idea of adding new gen pokemon during every smash do you think he still stands a chance?
seeing that team rocket gotten a mii costume perhaps meowth was still on the table

 

[Guynamednelson]

even if they're not necessarily NEW

Yeah, that's what I've been trying to say: Even Smash 4, with its blatant focus on modern Nintendo, didn't restrict itself to only adding first-parties which were too new for Brawl.

It added Villager with its focus on modern Nintendo. It added Bowser Jr.. It added Little Mac. It added Miis. And...it added Palutena but let's face it it wouldn't have happened if Uprising didn't and I'm not just saying that because it was recent at the time.

 

[Gengar84]

I’m hoping the ballot helped show Sakurai and Nintendo that tons of fans still care about the older characters and don’t want them to be forgotten and lost to time. With how well K. Rool, Ridley, and Banjo did on the ballot, I’d say that message got through. So while Smash may have too heavily focused on promotional picks previously, I have hope that things can change. Every Smash has had at least a few older characters.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Yeah, that's what I've been trying to say: Even Smash 4, with its blatant focus on modern Nintendo, didn't restrict itself to only adding first-parties which were too new for Brawl.

Okay but that's also EXACTLY what Golden said, so you're arguing about the exact same thing said a different way lol

He listed a bunch of characters that aren't NEW but were relevant at the time of Ultimate's plan or since then like Bandana Dee, Dixie, various Mario characters, Octoling, Ayumi because of the FDC remakes...

 

[Guynamednelson]

a different way

Yeah, a way that isn't being angry at people for daring to think things can happen

 

[Opossum]

i think Meowth is one of the few nintendo characters that have missed the boat despite his importance to the Pokémon series due to the constant idea of adding new gen pokemon during every smash do you think he still stands a chance?
seeing that team rocket gotten a mii costume perhaps meowth was still on the table

I don't think he has a chance at this point. The only thing keeping him relevant was his role in the anime, and now that they've moved on from Ash's journey, Meowth doesn't have that anymore.

Like, Horizons even managed to keep a Pikachu and a Charizard among the main cast's teams. Meowth, meanwhile, was completely cast aside. His odds, as low as they were before, are done and dusted imo.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

It's actually like that for Ultimate too, funny enough. Of its five non-echo first party newcomers, both Inkling and Isabelle came from recent popular games that predated the deadline, December 15th 2015 in this case. Incineroar once again fits into the "token Pokemon" slot.

Of course K. Rool and Ridley got in cuz of the Smash ballot. Funny enough the latter character actually was technically relevant again via Samus Returns (a remake of a game that didn't even have him originally) which came in 2017, but I'm gonna assume Sakurai probably wasn't influenced by that.

Honestly even if Ridley had been more contemporary than a stage hazard role in Dead or Alive Dimensions at the time, I feel the Ballot carried Ridley in more than one way.

Without the Ballot, Sakurai likely wouldn't have had the motivation to even try to make Ridley work as a fighter given what he said about him post-For.
But because Ridley was still such a huge request (pun slightly intended) in spite of it all, that made Sakurai lock in and go "Alright fine, let's see what I can do".

Like, Horizons even managed to keep a Pikachu and a Charizard among the main cast's teams.

And you just know the same guy probably has a Lucario stashed somewhere.

 

[HyperSomari64]

Bubble Bobble, Double Dribble, Double Dragon, F-Zero.

♫ This is the history of Nintendo ♫
♫ From Ana to Kat, Pikachu to Lucario ♫

♫ This is the history of Nintendo ♫
♫ From Nester to Ness, Waluigi to Wario ♫

EDIT: Oops, wrong song lmao

 

[KneeOfJustice99]

Waluigi's Wrecking Crew.

Destroying stuff for money is thematically resonant with Luigi. And it revives a retro Nintendo franchise.

Out of curiosity; would you prefer Waluigi's Wrecking Crew to be more of a puzzle-platformer like the original title, or a far more puzzle-oriented game like Wrecking Crew '98? (Or, for that matter, something else?) I've seen people suggest a Wrecking Crew revival a few times before now but I've never really heard much of people's takes on their preferred gameplay lol

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Yeah, a way that isn't being angry at people for daring to think things can happen

I mean look, you can want what you want, I'm a proponent for characters like Starfy (no game in 15 years) and the damn T-Rex from Fossil Fighters (no game in 11 years) lmao

But like based on what we've seen so far, outside of like Pit and a handful of Ballot choices, pretty much every character from Brawl on has been relevant in the interim between Smash games. That's a pretty big stretch of time but outside of edge cases like Isaac it won't really force Sakurai or his team to look super far back towards more dormant franchises, even if I do think that'd be a really fun way to build a newcomer roster for a Smash base game where there's less pressure for them to be juggernaut picks that sell mountains of DLC lol