Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Luke Starkiller]

I'm hoping Eggman is added as the next villain-based character.

 

[Cyberfire]

Currently playing Golden Sun, and I totally understand why Isaac has been such a requested character all these years now.

 

[Folezicle Lives!]

Does anypne remember the new Nintendo IP Game Builder Garage. Could make an interesting character

 

[HyperSomari64]

Does anypne remember the new Nintendo IP Game Builder Garage. Could make an interesting character

A stage would be more reasonable.

 

[Ivander]

Man, I wish the Game Awards started today like last year so that it's out of the way and we could be talking about any interesting announcements. But no, we have to wait 5 more days before it comes and goes.

Does anypne remember the new Nintendo IP Game Builder Garage. Could make an interesting character

I wouldn't be surprised if it got a stage, especially considering we got stages like Mario Maker, Hanenbow and PictoChat, and Miiverse for the Wii U. I could see Sakurai making a Game Builder Garage stage that utilised it's assets to make like stage background, hazards and whatnot.

 

[Folezicle Lives!]

I dunno I never played a game but it could get a character. Like there is that specific avatar.

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I would see more Snipperclips getting a stage

 

[Gorgonzales]

Does anypne remember the new Nintendo IP Game Builder Garage. Could make an interesting character

An assist trophy comprised of some Nodon would be neat.

 

[ninjahmos]

If Waluigi ever gets into Smash, I'm kind of hoping they add in more music from the Mario Tennis series, especially Tournament Round 1, Game Point (Break Point) and Tournament Round 2, and the Mario Golf series, especially Toad Highlands, Shy Guy Desert and Mini Golf, even though he wasn't in the original Mario Golf (for Nintendo 64 or Game Boy Color).

 

[fogbadge]

Imagine if Waluigi's on screen entrance was him breaking free of an assist trophy

 

[Diddy Kong]

I honestly think at this point we're losing traction with showing our fan demanded top pick characters by not having specific support threads. I know a next Smash isn't confirmed , but considering the time passed its highly likely something is in development. And thus we would better voice our support a little more instead of just having one thread that does it all.

I also remember how before K.Rool was confirmed we had lots and lots and lots of guest visitors in the K.Rool thread lurking. We always speculated that it could've been the developers. K.Rool ended up with a moveset about 80% of what we the fans wanted / expected.

This is also why I think opening the support threads would be good. Also, to avoid the endless circles of general speculation here.

 

[NintenRob]

I honestly think at this point we're losing traction with showing our fan demanded top pick characters by not having specific support threads. I know a next Smash isn't confirmed , but considering the time passed its highly likely something is in development. And thus we would better voice our support a little more instead of just having one thread that does it all.

I also remember how before K.Rool was confirmed we had lots and lots and lots of guest visitors in the K.Rool thread lurking. We always speculated that it could've been the developers. K.Rool ended up with a moveset about 80% of what we the fans wanted / expected.

This is also why I think opening the support threads would be good. Also, to avoid the endless circles of general speculation here.

I second this, but it may be better to wait until Switch 2 is officially announced and ride the momentum of that

 

[Mikegamer0608]

I second this, but it may be better to wait until Switch 2 is officially announced and ride the momentum of that

This would definitely be the best option. Once the Switch 2 is shown off and we see its potential we can assume that a new Smash will be on the horizon and then Character support threads/speculation can really begin.

 

[RileyXY1]

This would definitely be the best option. Once the Switch 2 is shown off and we see its potential we can assume that a new Smash will be on the horizon and then Character support threads/speculation can really begin.

I believe that was the case for Ultimate. The Support Threads were opened up as soon as the Switch was revealed.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Well , let them hurry up and reveal a new Donkey Kong game while they're at it or something.

 

[Garteam]

Sakurai called gaming's second biggest villain after . That alone makes me think he'll at least fish to get Sephiroth in the base roster with .

"X is the biggest Y in the genre after Mario's version(s) of Y" is a pattern that repeats for most secondary reps for third parties in Smash that I think are likely, IMO:

• Shadow is gaming's second biggest evil counterpart/anti-hero counterpart after .
• Chun-Li is gaming's second biggest female supporting character after .
• X is the protagonist of gaming's second most successful attempt at rebooting an already popular series' cast and location after Super Mario Bros. (if you count that as a pseudo-reboot to Donkey Kong)
• Zero is gaming's third biggest example of a supporting character becoming popular enough to get a sequel series with multiple entries after Yoshi and Wario.
• Alucard is the protagonist of gaming's second most successful genre-jump after Mario making the jump to 3-D.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I believe that was the case for Ultimate. The Support Threads were opened up as soon as the Switch was revealed.

They were opened when Smash Ultimate was revealed. Not when the Switch was. Then after we got the first proper trailer, stuff got heavily re-organized based upon the information.

The system alone wouldn't cut it.

 

[RileyXY1]

They were opened when Smash Ultimate was revealed. Not when the Switch was. Then after we got the first proper trailer, stuff got heavily re-organized based upon the information.

The system alone wouldn't cut it.

There were Support Threads that predated Ultimate's reveal. Like there are threads in there that started in 2017. And yes, I checked.

Sakurai called gaming's second biggest villain after . That alone makes me think he'll at least fish to get Sephiroth in the base roster with .

"X is the biggest Y in the genre after Mario's version(s) of Y" is a pattern that repeats for most secondary reps for third parties in Smash that I think are likely, IMO:

• Shadow is gaming's second biggest evil counterpart/anti-hero counterpart after .
• Chun-Li is gaming's second biggest female supporting character after .
• X is the protagonist of gaming's second most successful attempt at rebooting an already popular series' cast and location after Super Mario Bros. (if you count that as a pseudo-reboot to Donkey Kong)
• Zero is gaming's third biggest example of a supporting character becoming popular enough to get a sequel series with multiple entries after Yoshi and Wario.
• Alucard is the protagonist of gaming's second most successful genre-jump after Mario making the jump to 3-D.

I highly doubt Square Enix will ever get a character in the base roster unless they do "Everyone is Here" again.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

There were Support Threads that predated Ultimate's reveal. Like there are threads in there that started in 2017. And yes, I checked.

Note that you said "opened", which is specific to Ultimate's reveal. That's completely different from lingering threads we have. ...Which is where the confusion is. It's easy to interpret that as a properly opened forum in itself that allowed them.

But anyway, yeah, two different things.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I think with their huge popularity, Cloud and Sephiroth are likely to at least warrant their inclusion. But if they can strike the deal, that's the harder part.

After Sonic, and maybe Mega Man, I hardly seen as much push for a 3rd party character than Cloud. Sephiroth coming back is then another realistic expectation.

However, Square knows this probably and likely will try and capitalise on this. This is the biggest obstacle for their inclusion.

And honestly this is also why I think they'll be DLC yet again. Sure Cloud made it in base game for Ultimate, but I don't think they'll be as generous next time. Smash Ultimate as a concept had the words "success" "sales" and "budget" written at its proverbially forehead.

So I dunno. This has been said a lot already though. And am no expert, Square and Nintendo seem especially friendly since the Switch after all, so maybe its way more likely than I think.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

3rd Party Thoughts:
S (Closest to a lock as you can get/the only tier where I'd actually be super surprised to see a cut)

A (Highly likely)

B (Likely)

C (Toss up)

F (Unlikely, but still possible)

Spoiler: Reasoning

• Konami: As far as I know, Konami is a pretty willing participant, but it's completely unknown how much their characters are going to be desired by Sakurai and the dev team this time around.
  • It kind of does make sense that Snake was dropped in SSB4 since he was brought in Brawl by Kojima's request, but now that he's established as a beloved veteran, he does have more going for him.
  • Likewise, Castlevania is an NES icon that's breaking back into the market, albeit by way of a TV series. It's nothing to sneeze at either.
• SEGA: Sega is definitely a team player, and most of its involved IPs are quite close to Nintendo.
  • Sonic has had a perfect attendance since Brawl, so it seems likely he'll keep up that pace.
  • Bayonetta is a series extremely close to Nintendo, and a lot of people seem to view that as Bayonetta's "in" for the next game, but also, the series killed itself, soooo...
  • Persona 5 is still going strong, which bodes pretty well for Joker, especially with his games coming to Nintendo consoles. He could also be replaced by Shin Megami Tensei, but with him being a veteran and...as far as I know, Persona 5 being bigger, I don't think that's super likely to happen.
• Capcom: Capcom is notoriously easy to work with, and has a ton of big IPs to use. Though I honestly think that may be a bit of a problem for our veterans.
  • Mega Man has quickly become viewed as a series staple and a must have, but there's no indication that the devs see him this way quite yet. I also think that there's a non-zero chance that classic Mega Man takes a back seat to the Mega Man X series in order to shake things up, be it through X or Zero. Having any of these characters at the same time isn't impossible either, but I do think Mega Man's cast has the most justifiable argument for hot swappping. Mega Man also isn't one of Capcom's biggest franchises, so it could be that Mega Man is dropped for something else, though I'm don't find that to be super likely either.
  • While Street Fighter is much bigger than Mega Man nowadays, I still think it could also get swapped out for a different Capcom franchise considering it's going up against the likes of Monster Hunter, Resident Evil, and Devil May Cry.
• Bandai-Namco: There is practically 0 barrier to entry for their involved series, as Namco is helping with development, but I don't think that makes them immune from getting cuts.
  • As an icon of gaming so ubiquitous that he's just about the quintissential example of what a video game is, I think PAC-Man is safe.
  • Kazuya on the other hand is kind of a toss up. It really just depends on whether or not they have space for him in their vision of the roster.
• SquareEnix: This company is a lot more fickle it seems, and there's a ton more red tape to get through in the aquisition of its characters.
  • Cloud and Sephiroth are weird in that I can see both the positives and negatives working toward their inclusion, but I have no idea how much they matter either way. They're hugely influential inclusions, but that's not enough in and of itself, and they're probably the most complicated SquareEnix characters to get setup.
  • Hero is actually quite a lot easier to get this time around, as the barrier to him ever being a base roster character has been removed. Dragon Quest is also the RPG series in Japan, so there's strong merit in their favor.
• Microsoft: The company seems to be willing to play ball, so I think we'll see more collaboration in the future rather than less.
  • Banjo & Kazooie are a question mark, but I'm not terribly optimistic on them since they're a fan demand character that didn't end up being all that popular in practice due to his weird moveset.
  • Steve on the other hand, I think is a lock unless Microsoft gets in the way. He's such a big icon of gaming that I would slot him in with Mario and PAC-Man.
• SNK: Will Terry continue to be in everything? Find out next time on Dragon Ball Z!
• Disney: I have no clue how easy or hard Sora was to get, or how easy or hard it would be to get him to stay. If it's easy enough though, I think Sora's got a pretty decent shot, as I think he remained pretty popular upon inclusion.

 

[Louie G.]

F (Unlikely, but still possible)

Come on man, no. Banjo is hardly guaranteed, but they were an extremely popular and meaningful addition that IMO will have no issues coming back (base or DLC, whichever) if Nintendo / Sakurai choose to work with Microsoft again. Certainly not the very bottom of the barrel here, to single them out as the least valuable to return.

Outside of the context of Smash Bros, Nintendo and Microsoft have been making active effort to bring Rare legacy titles back to Nintendo consoles via NSO. Microsoft has been extremely generous in providing about a dozen of these games and it’s clear to me the parties see this as something of a brotherly gesture.

You’re definitely overestimating how unpopular Banjo’s moveset is. People still play the character and much of that disappointment is regulated to sects of the hardcore community and competitive players, where zoners are kind of just inherently unpopular and seen as boring / annoying. By that metric we ought to cut a whole bunch of characters. Doesn’t really distract from the fact that Banjo’s demand had persisted for 20 years, and fans would absolutely remiss if they were cut loose again after all of this time.

Tbh, putting Steve in straight up S Tier, guaranteed return and then Banjo in F strikes me as particularly off the mark. From what we know of these two their additions were benefitted from one another. I find this balance of absolute gaming titan and more intimate Nintendo classic pretty convenient and something they’d probably see to maintaining. Akin to Mega Man and Ryu, I honestly struggle to see one coming without the other.

 

[Stratos]

It's something that just came to me as a question about Rare, if nintendo had bought Rare, then Rare characters would come more easily as newcomers, as trophies (this was before Super Smash Bros. Ultimate), as assist trophies and as spirits in the Super Smash Bros. series than they do now? I know that maybe what I'm writing isn't a question, but I'd just like to read other people's opinions.

 

[Noipoi]

I could be misinterpreting this but I recall things going down like this: Sakurai was working out a deal with Microsoft about getting Minecraft in the game, and while he was there he was like “Yo can we have Banjo Kazooie too?” And Microsoft was like “Hell yeah dude, we aren’t doing anything with them. Go crazy!”

I feel like if Steve comes back it’s very likely Banjo’s coming back. Microsoft seems pretty chill to negotiate with.

 

[Gorgonzales]

I also remember how before K.Rool was confirmed we had lots and lots and lots of guest visitors in the K.Rool thread lurking. We always speculated that it could've been the developers. K.Rool ended up with a moveset about 80% of what we the fans wanted / expected.

The idea of actual Smash devs (or translators relaying back to devs) lurking these boards to gauge what people like/think of the characters is something I always considered a pipe dream.

I still think the chances are low. Like, single-digit percent chances. But you can never say zero for these kinds of things.

 

[The Prankster 16]

Imo the 3rd parties’ chances are:
S
The ones we always say are locks, all companies are friendly with giving content, most are iconic characters and bayo is basically nintendo
A
Ken is also iconic and easy to add, Kazuya is made by Bandai Namco but is maybe less priority, and Sakurai is a huge fan of SNK, KoF inspired a lot of smash
B
Microsoft reps are both icons, but both are disliked for reasons. Also don’t know if MS would let them not be DLC. Cloud is a mainstay atp, but Squenix is stingy and the rights to the music and art are all tied up. Persona is super popular now and would be cool to see return, but Joker seems lower priority.
C
Again, square is hard to work with, and they're lower priority Squenix characters. The Konami reps feel like they’d be high priority, but Konami sucks and might not be open to bringing them back
F
Disney LOL

 

[Guynamednelson]

The idea of actual Smash devs (or translators relaying back to devs) lurking these boards to gauge what people like/think of the characters is something I always considered a pipe dream.

I still think the chances are low. Like, single-digit percent chances. But you can never say zero for these kinds of things.

Eh, I doubt K. Rool's moveset is exactly proof of the devs lurking these boards. He doesn't have too many boss battles to reference, so it's easy to assume his specials would include the Blunderbuss, Crownerang, and Propellerpack.

That and I don't think they would've given him a down-B counter given the K. Rool fans who had a beef with all the ones added in 4.

 

[Noipoi]

F
Disney LOL

Does that argument still hold up these days?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse is no treat to negotiate with. But we know for a fact that it’s not impossible.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

Everyone is (to some degree) likely!

 

[Louie G.]

The Konami reps feel like they’d be high priority, but Konami sucks and might not be open to bringing them back

I still don't really understand why this mentality holds. Yeah, Konami does suck, but our point of reference in Ultimate is willing cooperation and generosity. Castlevania's content spread is about as fruitful and lovingly crafted as Mega Man's, and while Snake didn't get much of anything substantially new... he did return, and was probably the linch pin that Everyone is Here rested upon. And they didn't even need a DLC character on top of that.

Konami's current model seems to be that exposure breeds IP strength. They've been pretty loose about lending Castlevania and, to a bit of a lesser extent, Metal Gear out for crossovers. It's my belief that Konami will pretty much give Nintendo whatever they like in an effort to keep these brands in the public eye. It's moreso a matter of Nintendo and Sakurai's own priorities that will dictate whether or not we see both return, but I think it's a safe bet that we'll have at least one.

I just don't think enough has really changed from Ultimate until now where Konami feels like an especially volatile variable. In no world is it not okay for Simon to be in Smash when he's chilling in Brawlhalla just a couple years ago.

Does that argument still hold up these days?

I think it does to an extent, personally. It's not proclaiming that Sora is impossible, which is clearly no longer a valid argument, but I think it's right to be dubious of his chances at arriving at launch. It's hard to say how much the DLC incentive sways things one way or another, we haven't set a precedent.

For what it's worth, I think Sora will return eventually and they'll probably ask to bring him back. But I just think it will result in post-launch DLC where he would be one of the first guest characters to return... or perhaps Sora can return on base, and we'll get a Kingdom Hearts newcomer as DLC lol.

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

F (Unlikely, but still possible)

I know I have a Banjo bias going into this, but if Steve is basically guaranteed and Banjo was a super popular request (second highest after Sora out of realizable characters) and was INCREDIBLY easy to license, why wouldn't he come back? That's such an insane low-risk high-reward veteran pick, especially if Steve is basically guaranteed, that it'd be crazy not to at least on Microsoft's end, like that's free licensing money for a character you basically never touch anymore.

Not to mention both Banjo games are on NSO with presumably the same stipulation (licensing money, but no money made beyond that for the foreseeable future, since the game isn't purchased directly) and Microsoft and Nintendo forming a business relationship.

F
Disney LOL

I also feel like Sora is likelier than some of you think because he's literally the biggest request for a Smash character ever and presumably you'd wanna try and keep someone like that for at least a game. Now is that a guarantee? Of course not, Disney could Disney all over the place, but I feel like an effort would at least be made to keep Sora from one game to the next, even if it doesn't work out for base game lol

 

[fogbadge]

Does that argument still hold up these days?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure the Mickey Mouse Clubhouse is no treat to negotiate with. But we know for a fact that it’s not impossible.

yeah, it's also not like their the only company known for their corporate greed that nintendo has to deal with

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

S

A

B

C

 

[RileyXY1]

I still don't really understand why this mentality holds. Yeah, Konami does suck, but our point of reference in Ultimate is willing cooperation and generosity. Castlevania's content spread is about as fruitful and lovingly crafted as Mega Man's, and while Snake didn't get much of anything substantially new... he did return, and was probably the linch pin that Everyone is Here rested upon. And they didn't even need a DLC character on top of that.

Konami's current model seems to be that exposure breeds IP strength. They've been pretty loose about lending Castlevania and, to a bit of a lesser extent, Metal Gear out for crossovers. It's my belief that Konami will pretty much give Nintendo whatever they like in an effort to keep these brands in the public eye. It's moreso a matter of Nintendo and Sakurai's own priorities that will dictate whether or not we see both return, but I think it's a safe bet that we'll have at least one.

I just don't think enough has really changed from Ultimate until now where Konami feels like an especially volatile variable. In no world is it not okay for Simon to be in Smash when he's chilling in Brawlhalla just a couple years ago.

Yeah. I think that the only reason why Snake was cut from Smash 4 was because Smash 4 released right in the middle of the controversy surrounding MGS5 and Hideo Kojima's exit from the company, and Sakurai didn't want to get himself involved in that mess.

 

[Noipoi]

I still don't really understand why this mentality holds. Yeah, Konami does suck, but our point of reference in Ultimate is willing cooperation and generosity. Castlevania's content spread is about as fruitful and lovingly crafted as Mega Man's, and while Snake didn't get much of anything substantially new... he did return, and was probably the linch pin that Everyone is Here rested upon. And they didn't even need a DLC character on top of that.

Konami's current model seems to be that exposure breeds IP strength. They've been pretty loose about lending Castlevania and, to a bit of a lesser extent, Metal Gear out for crossovers. It's my belief that Konami will pretty much give Nintendo whatever they like in an effort to keep these brands in the public eye. It's moreso a matter of Nintendo and Sakurai's own priorities that will dictate whether or not we see both return, but I think it's a safe bet that we'll have at least one.

I just don't think enough has really changed from Ultimate until now where Konami feels like an especially volatile variable. In no world is it not okay for Simon to be in Smash when he's chilling in Brawlhalla just a couple years ago.



I think it does to an extent, personally. It's not proclaiming that Sora is impossible, which is clearly no longer a valid argument, but I think it's right to be dubious of his chances at arriving at launch. It's hard to say how much the DLC incentive sways things one way or another, we haven't set a precedent.

For what it's worth, I think Sora will return eventually and they'll probably ask to bring him back. But I just think it will result in post-launch DLC where he would be one of the first guest characters to return... or perhaps Sora can return on base, and we'll get a Kingdom Hearts newcomer as DLC lol.

Oh yeah, Sora is definitely not gonna be base game. But I think he’s got a solid chance at coming back as dlc.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Doing the tier stuff too

Close to guaranteed:


Very likely to happen:


50/50:


Heavy odds against them:

 

[Guynamednelson]

Oh yeah, Sora is definitely not gonna be base game. But I think he’s got a solid chance at coming back as dlc.

There's nothing stopping Disney from being The Mouse, but according to Sakurai the real issue was convincing Nomura that Sora in Smash didn't have to be canon to KH.

Then again he was probably only allowed to talk about the shenanigans on the SE side when it comes to getting Sora in.

 

[Idon]

There's nothing stopping Disney from being The Mouse, but according to Sakurai the real issue was convincing Nomura that Sora in Smash didn't have to be canon to KH.

Then again he was probably only allowed to talk about the shenanigans on the SE side when it comes to getting Sora in.

That's just for his inclusion at all.

A character's inclusion in base roster vs DLC is incredibly different in terms of royalties. There's a lot of payment disputes on the cut 3rd party companies get from content already in the game vs the cut for just the standalone DLC or pass. If you recall, there was significant issue with this in Smash Ult for a 3rd Party Company to get Everyone is Here and I think it's a quite safe bet that said company was Square Enix with Cloud.

 

[Guynamednelson]

DLC is incredibly different in terms of royalties. There's a lot of payment disputes on the cut 3rd party companies get from content already in the game vs the cut for just the standalone DLC or pass.

That was kind of what I was referring to with that "then again". He didn't want to go into all the financial details, especially when it comes to Disney.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

You guys are underestimating these two.

I could see being skeptical about Banjo some 2-3 years ago, but now? With almost the entirety of Rare's classic catalogue available on NSO? It shows that 1. Nintendo values Rare's legacy, and 2. Microsoft has no issues cooperating with Nintendo about this kind of stuff. The character in Smash was warmly received to say the least and is ready to go.
What really sells me on his chances though is the amount of care they put in Banjo-Tooie's NSO version. That was absolutely not a given looking at other games on the N64 app, and it shows that they considered the game an important attractive of the subscription service.
Really his one and only issue is that he doesn't have anything new to promote, but that didn't stop him the first time either.

As for Sephiroth, I see no universe where Cloud comes back without him... And Cloud is going to come back.

 

[Louie G.]

Really his one and only issue is that he doesn't have anything new to promote, but that didn't stop him the first time either.

Yeah, I suppose it's reasonable enough to assume that under dire conditions the characters with less going on may be of lesser priority. But applying this mentality to long-standing fan requests like K. Rool, Mega Man or Banjo feels like a lapse in judgement when fundamentally nothing has changed from then and now. One of my big pet peeves about speculation is how one track minded people are about this.

If there was enough to justify their addition then, there's enough to justify their return now. Probably even moreso, because exposure through Smash is a self-fulfilling prophecy that has made them doubly relevant and popular.

I think Banjo may have his own set of complications if Microsoft is less than cooperative outside of DLC negotiation, we don't have any precedent for how this will go between games / how sustainable collaboration with western partners is for the base release, but with how smoothly the NSO stuff has went I have my doubts about that being a hang-up. The other two examples I mentioned are hella safe.