Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Interesting you say that, because I feel that if Sakurai's current project is not Smash then Alear's chances are very thin. Because Sakurai's current project was probably not close to being done when Engage came out in Jan 23, so if Smash is put off until after his current job, that likely pushes the project plan quite far after Engage's release. And also pushes Smash way far away from Engage's timeframe of actual marketing relevance.

Well, if a new Smash is coming out in 2026 or 2027 since that'd be a year or two past the release of the Switch 2 as every game except 64 has done, then I feel like it makes sense for the pre-production plan to have happened last year and then two or so years of development (I think the longest dev time Smash has had is nearly three years), so that means the pre-production plan would happen when Engage is still recent enough to not worry about competition from an upcoming game. We typically get the newest protag, so Alear would be next up in line.

It'd basically be like how Awakening came out in 2012, and Smash 4's production started in early 2012, but Chrom was still on the plan before being replaced by Robin so an Awakening character was always going to happen anyway.

This is part of why I feel like it's potentially possible for us to get Alear in the base game and whoever the next protag is in DLC, sort of like Robin and Corrin in Smash 4.

 

[Dukefire]

I'd be fine if Marth just takes his Engage move as a Final Smash. With how cinematic and detailed Final Smashes have become lately, the generic Critical Hit animation kinda sticks out

Still, Marth/Lucina's critical hit with Smash Ball is the strongest final smash out of all fighters. Kill confirm at 0% and longest horizontal range

 

[ninjahmos]

If the next Smash game ever decides to add in licensed music, which it probably won't, it'd be pretty wild if they could use songs like Way To Fall (Metal Gear Solid 3), The Man Who Sold The World or even Nuclear (Metal Gear Solid V).

 

[SPEN18]

Well, if a new Smash is coming out in 2026 or 2027 since that'd be a year or two past the release of the Switch 2 as every game except 64 has done, then I feel like it makes sense for the pre-production plan to have happened last year and then two or so years of development (I think the longest dev time Smash has had is nearly three years), so that means the pre-production plan would happen when Engage is still recent enough to not worry about competition from an upcoming game. We typically get the newest protag, so Alear would be next up in line.

This is part of why I feel like it's potentially possible for us to get Alear in the base game and whoever the next protag is in DLC, sort of like Robin and Corrin in Smash 4.

I think this is not accounting for the fact that Sakurai's current project didn't have the team assembled to start actual development until Apr 22. I find it unlikely that project would have been far enough along only 1 yr or 1yr and some change into development for Sakurai to start working on pre-production for Smash 6.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

The argument was that it was a special case because it was decided on before Three Houses released, which is a rare situation in Smash. It was also a unique situation because he had to play the game itself in secret, where not even fellow employees could see.

For what it's worth I already conceded that FE just got lucky with the release dates and that there wasn't a dedicated "New FE placeholder" slot chosen in advance, so you don't have to keep bringing how it "isn't actually special" multiple times in you post, I heard you the first time. My point of contention is that the "Sakurai needs to watch his words because they get taken out of context" thing stems from how everyone on social media jumped to the conclusion that anything he said related to Smash. Byleth wasn't special in that regard because Sakurai just doesn't discuss fighters before their official reveal, but they were special because Sakurai had to hide the gameplay from Nintendo employees as well; Usually, I'd imagine he'd be able to discuss games with employees because most of the time he plays games that are officially released

But eh, I already admitted that there isn't a special FE reserve slot in the base game, so this debate probably won't go anywhere but in circles. Let's just drop it here

Right. I misunderstood you meant a secret from employees too. That's a very big deal and I'm thinking of why that could be. Leakers, maybe?

We're on the same page, yeah~

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I dunno if Gullveig would be a popular choice anymore.

When all we had was her design people loved her (for very obvious and base reasons). When we actually learned about her, people quickly turned. Her story and writing are actively messy and confusing. It makes Fates look good by comparison.

Veronica at least gets more popular the more she shows up.

 

[HyperSomari64]

If the next Smash game ever decides to add in licensed music, which it probably won't, it'd be pretty wild if they could use songs like Way To Fall (Metal Gear Solid 3), The Man Who Sold The World or even Nuclear (Metal Gear Solid V).

How about Happy Together? or the Wendy Koopa cover of Girls Wanna Have Fun from the SMB3 cartoon? (The latter is more of a joke pick)

 

[SharkLord]

Interesting you say that, because I feel that if Sakurai's current project is not Smash then Alear's chances are very thin. Because Sakurai's current project was probably not close to being done when Engage came out in Jan 23, so if Smash is put off until after his current job, that likely pushes the project plan quite far after Engage's release. And also pushes Smash way far away from Engage's timeframe of actual marketing relevance.

Adding to this, if Sakurai isn't working on Smash for his super special secret project, the likelihood of a new Fire Emblem character is actually higher. Sakurai's current project is slated to be revealed "soon," so it's probably close to completion. In that case, the next Smash game's roster should be settled around now (Though that's imprecise; It might not be set until early 2025, or alternatively, it might have been drafted up already). In that case, we'll most likely see some early Switch 2 characters, like how Brawl had Ike and Lucario and 4 had Robin, Greninja, and Palutena (Technically her redesign debuted in Brawl, but let's be real, she's an Uprising character).

Furthermore, Sakurai expressed regret about how there wasn't enough time to plan for ARMS and XC2 in the base game; If he's not working on Smash right now, I'm quite certain he'd want to avoid repeating that - Especially since, again, Smash usually has characters from recent releases on the current systems. Given the usual 2-year release cycle for Fire Emblem, we're very likely to see a new Fire Emblem for the Switch 2's launch year, if not a Day One release; Given Fire Emblem's rotating cast, that lines up quite well with the Smash window.

For what it's worth, we're most likely getting MP4 and a new Mario in 2025 too, but since those games have consistent main characters, they're less likely to have a new fighter to cover a recent release. There's also the matter of Pokemon, since Z-A is revisiting Kalos and a Gen X game would have to come later. If the design drafts are ready I'm quite certain they'll reserve a Gen X slot like usual, but that depends on how far along that game is; It could come out in 2026 in time for a 2026/2027 Smash release, but there's also the chance Gen X would be too late in the pipeline to have the concept art ready. Xenoblade games also have rotating casts and seem to release about 2-3 years apart, not counting DLC, so we might see a new Xenoblade in 2025; Still, I'm not sure if it's as consistent a pattern as Fire Emblem, so it's a bit harder to predict

Right. I misunderstood you meant a secret from employees too. That's a very big deal and I'm thinking of why that could be. Leakers, maybe?

We're on the same page, yeah~

Probably, yeah. It was a mid-development ROM, so nobody beyond the Three Houses devs were supposed to see it. Same way Sakurai couldn't just blab about Smash development secrets to the Zelda devs or the Luigi's Mansion devs; They weren't in on the development, so they weren't supposed to see anything about the game that wasn't officially revealed

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

I think this is not accounting for the fact that Sakurai's current project didn't have the team assembled to start actual development until Apr 22. I find it unlikely that project would have been far enough along only 1 yr or 1yr and some change into development for Sakurai to start working on pre-production for Smash 6.

That's possible, but it depends on what kind of project it is, because they still found time to do new Spirit Events and fix the GSP glitch. Plus we're talking about pre-production where Sakurai makes his project plan and likely plans out some moveset stuff being last year rather than full on production with the full force of the team, meaning full on production would likely start sometime this year after his late 2021/early 2022 project has been in development for about two years.

I think it would be odd for pre-production on Smash to have not even STARTED yet, especially after Sakurai's video mentioned something about overlap with projects lol

 

[Idon]

Still, Marth/Lucina's critical hit with Smash Ball is the strongest final smash out of all fighters. Kill confirm at 0% and longest horizontal range

Bro I don't care if it teleports you to the blastzone directly, it is way lamer than what he does in FE Engage and it's even more lame looking on Lucina where it's not even her original move.

 

[smashkirby]

You know who else is benefitting from this timing? A certain series that got a game a couple of months before the project plan deadline AND got another game two years after.

If I may throw her hat/helmet into the mix here, Nintendo seems fairly keen on pushing Mona almost as much as Ashley ever since Gold came out in 2018, especially over there.

Like, she's definitely getting pushed as the 'Princess Peach' to Wario's 'Mario by them...

TFW you recognize that Ashley is the only character that makes sense for a second Warioware rep but also you don't care about Ashley in the slightest compared to the rest of the cast

Ngl, I think THIS pretty much sums up my feelings towards Ashley in Smash (and possibly the character in general). Like, she's most likely the next option for a playable Wario rep, but I'm more invested in Mona, so...

 

[Ivander]

I dunno if Gullveig would be a popular choice anymore.

When all we had was her design people loved her (for very obvious and base reasons). When we actually learned about her, people quickly turned. Her story and writing are actively messy and confusing. It makes Fates look good by comparison.

Veronica at least gets more popular the more she shows up.

I hardly saw people turn against her when they learned that she was Seidr who started losing herself after she was forced to put down Heidr. and were pretty okay with her being a tragic villain.

If anything, the thing that just got on people's nerve was how forced the romance between Seidr(and thus Kvasir and Gullveig) and the Summoner was...especially that scene which literally amounted to a nothing burger because it felt like halfway, the story might have changed direction or something. To many people, it really felt too much like an author trying to do a romance between their OC and the character, which really doesn't work well when the OC is a mute Self-insert(because let's be honest, if it was Manga Kiran, people would understand why they'd fall so fast for the lovable dork).
The story definitely had alot of issues, but Gullveig's(and Kvasir and Seidr's) tragic nature was one of the things I've seen most people say was one of the better things about the Book, much like how Fates has potential with it's background and story, it was just written and done very poorly.

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Furthermore, Sakurai expressed regret about how there wasn't enough time to plan for ARMS and XC2 in the base game; If he's not working on Smash right now, I'm quite certain he'd want to avoid repeating that - Especially since, again, Smash usually has characters from recent releases on the current systems. Given the usual 2-year release cycle for Fire Emblem, we're very likely to see a new Fire Emblem for the Switch 2's launch year, if not a Day One release; Given Fire Emblem's rotating cast, that lines up quite well with the Smash window.

Correction. It's not that there "wasn't enough time". It was that timing of releases made it impossible because they were non-factors when the project plan was being drafted.

Poor timing =/= not enough time.

 

[Opossum]

I hope the next game changes Marth's original taunt from "Keep your eyes open!" back to "Everyone, watch me!" to make it more accurate to what he's saying in Japanese.

Honestly I completely disagree. The localized version gets the connotation of what he was saying in Japanese across much better than a direct translation. The original meaning of the line was less "Marth puts himself at the center of attention" and more "Marth is rallying his troops to keep their eyes forward, since he's leading the charge." So "Keep your eyes open!" gets this across much better than a direct translation after years and years of Awkward Zombie-esque fandom mischaracterization stemming from the literal meaning of the Japanese line out of context.

 

[SPEN18]

Adding to this, if Sakurai isn't working on Smash for his super special secret project, the likelihood of a new Fire Emblem character is actually higher. Sakurai's current project is slated to be revealed "soon," so it's probably close to completion. In that case, the next Smash game's roster should be settled around now (Though that's imprecise; It might not be set until early 2025, or alternatively, it might have been drafted up already). In that case, we'll most likely see some early Switch 2 characters, like how Brawl had Ike and Lucario and 4 had Robin, Greninja, and Palutena (Technically her redesign debuted in Brawl, but let's be real, she's an Uprising character).

Furthermore, Sakurai expressed regret about how there wasn't enough time to plan for ARMS and XC2 in the base game; If he's not working on Smash right now, I'm quite certain he'd want to avoid repeating that - Especially since, again, Smash usually has characters from recent releases on the current systems. Given the usual 2-year release cycle for Fire Emblem, we're very likely to see a new Fire Emblem for the Switch 2's launch year, if not a Day One release; Given Fire Emblem's rotating cast, that lines up quite well with the Smash window.

For what it's worth, we're most likely getting MP4 and a new Mario in 2025 too, but since those games have consistent main characters, they're less likely to have a new fighter to cover a recent release. There's also the matter of Pokemon, since Z-A is revisiting Kalos and a Gen X game would have to come later. If the design drafts are ready I'm quite certain they'll reserve a Gen X slot like usual, but that depends on how far along that game is; It could come out in 2026 in time for a 2026/2027 Smash release, but there's also the chance Gen X would be too late in the pipeline to have the concept art ready. Xenoblade games also have rotating casts and seem to release about 2-3 years apart, not counting DLC, so we might see a new Xenoblade in 2025; Still, I'm not sure if it's as consistent a pattern as Fire Emblem, so it's a bit harder to predict

Well, if we're talking about a hypothetical FE character even newer than Alear, then it's tricky. It's pretty safe to say something FE is cooking for the Switch 2, but probably not done yet and definitely not releasing until at least mid/late 2025, so if the Smash project plan was done, say, this year, then I doubt a character from said game would be able to make it in. In this scenario of the project plan being this year, it seems most likely to me that there is no recent FE newcomer in base game.
For Switch 2 characters in general, though, the chances are much higher if the project plan is not until later this year or next year.
Lastly, just keep in mind that, based on what Sakurai has said about Robin, Corrin, and Byleth, they probably won't have any kind of mandate to include a recent FE character, and the timing is just one factor of many. FE's timeline has had a fair chunk of luck in lining up a lot, although some of that luck is made by its frequent and consistent release schedule.

As for the ARMS/XBC2 situation for base Ult, that kind of thing is unavoidably going to happen every time pretty much. Simply because there are always games releasing between the roster cutoff point and the end of development, and any scenarios of spots being held for characters from recent games, like Incineroar's spot, have been stated to be atypical cases. They know that, whatever the chosen timeline is, there's going to be candidates that have bad timing. We saw the ARMS/XBC2 situation play out just fine thru DLC, though, so idk if Sakurai really regrets anything about that situation at this point.

 

[ninjahmos]

Honestly I completely disagree. The localized version gets the connotation of what he was saying in Japanese across much better than a direct translation. The original meaning of the line was less "Marth puts himself at the center of attention" and more "Marth is rallying his troops to keep their eyes forward, since he's leading the charge." So "Keep your eyes open!" gets this across much better than a direct translation after years and years of Awkward Zombie-esque fandom mischaracterization stemming from the literal meaning of the Japanese line out of context.

Well, I guess you could probably mix the two and it could probably be something like "Everyone, keep your eyes open!"

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

Well, I guess you could probably mix the two and it could probably be something like "Everyone, keep your eyes open!"

The "Everyone" part really isn't needed. The point still gets across without it.

Maybe if taunts are longer again, I could see it, but it's really not needed.

 

[Laniv]

Here's a question, what would you like to see from the next smash in terms of mechanics? Could be huge sweeping changes or just small tweaks, want to hear about what people want out of the gameplay after playing Ultimate for many years

I kinda want them to bring back perfect shielding to reflect projectiles. For giggles

Another thing I want to see is Negative Penalty from Guilty Gear Strive. In Strive, each character has a Tension Gauge, which is the game's super meter. If a player plays too defensively (e.g. turtling, running away from the opponent, refusing to attack for long periods of time), then the Negative Penalty is incurred, lowering the Tension Gauge and making it harder to fill for 20 seconds after.

 

[ninjahmos]

If Smash could add in music from other crossover games (which they probably can't), it'd be pretty cool if they could add in music from Marvel VS Capcom 2 (Carnival Stage, Clock Tower Stage, Swamp Stage) and Capcom VS SNK 2 (Nebuta, This Is True Love Makin', Stimulation).

 

[Hadokeyblade]

If the next Smash game ever decides to add in licensed music, which it probably won't, it'd be pretty wild if they could use songs like Way To Fall (Metal Gear Solid 3), The Man Who Sold The World or even Nuclear (Metal Gear Solid V).

Well this feels absent from the Sonic list, endless posibilities sung by the guy from bowling for soup.

For some reason i find the idea of Ed sheerans "celestial" being in smash funny.

 

[Ruler of Subspace]

Here's a question, what would you like to see from the next smash in terms of mechanics? Could be huge sweeping changes or just small tweaks, want to hear about what people want out of the gameplay after playing Ultimate for many years

i know this could be seen as controversial due to it being a massive change, but if the next smash is a reboot, id love to see it take a platform/arena fighter approach. if bamco helps develop it again, they could take a lot of inspiration from sparking zero while still keeping it a platform fighter. i do imagine that everything would need to be reworked though

 

[Opossum]

Celestial won't make it into the base game, but it will come bundled with the Ed Sheeran Mii costume during the DLC period.

 

[ninjahmos]

I've said this before, but I still think it'd be pretty cool if the music direction for the next game took a switch to primarily rock and jazz-funk music.

Maybe even, as unlikely as it sounds, some 90s/early 2000s-style dance-pop music.

 

[SharkLord]

Correction. It's not that there "wasn't enough time". It was that timing of releases made it impossible because they were non-factors when the project plan was being drafted.

Poor timing =/= not enough time.

Yeah, that's what I was trying to get at. Less "not enough time" and more "was drafted too soon to add them." Sakurai's still said he wanted to add them if he knew about them, but I made it sound less like that and more like they were being worked on but didn't have enough time before launch

 

[Hadokeyblade]

If Smash could add in music from other crossover games (which they probably can't), it be pretty cool if they could add in music from Marvel VS Capcom 2 (Carnival Stage, Clock Tower Stage, Swamp Stage) and Capcom VS SNK 2 (Nebuta, This Is True Love Makin', Stimulation).

I got a couple.

Spoiler

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

Yeah, that's what I was trying to get at. Less "not enough time" and more "was drafted too soon to add them." Sakurai's still said he wanted to add them if he knew about them, but I made it sound less like that and more like they were being worked on but didn't have enough time before launch

Sakurai actually never said that.

He merely said it was a "strange omission" to not have fighters from those two titles. And it was a follow-up to him saying the Inklings were probably seen as a given for inclusion.

Which....when you factor in the speculation scene early on, yeah, an ARMS character and a Xenoblade 2 character were outright expected just like Inkling and a Sun/Moon Pokémon. So to not have them would be conspicuous with the explanation being the games came much too late for consideration.

And given how we got and as DLC later, that was very much his way to "rectify" those omissions.

 

[SharkLord]

Sakurai actually never said that.

He merely said it was a "strange omission" to not have fighters from those two titles. And it was a follow-up to him saying the Inklings were probably seen as a given for inclusion.

Which....when you factor in the speculation scene early on, yeah, an ARMS character and a Xenoblade 2 character were outright expected just like Inkling and a Sun/Moon Pokémon.

Ah, so it wasn't a hard confirmation that we would've gotten ARMS and XC2. Given that we later got Min Min and Pyra, it's likely that Sakurai would've added them in base had the roster been settled later, but not guaranteed

 

[DarthEnderX]

Guys, I just made a whole poll showing a bunch of super wanted first party characters.

No you didn't. Because you didn't include any non-1P characters for comparison.

You went to a bunch of franchise-specific fan communities, asked them to click their favorite character, then try to pass off a few hundred votes as proof of "massive fan demand".

We aren't scraping the bottom of the barrel, you just have particular tastes.

Show me a poll where you went to a Halo community, Monster Hunter community or Fortnite community and ask them to vote for Master Chief, Palico or Jonesy and we'll see whose tastes are particular.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

No you didn't. Because you didn't include any non-1P characters for comparison.

You went to a bunch of franchise-specific fan communities, asked them to click their favorite character, then try to pass off a few hundred votes as proof of "massive fan demand".


Show me a poll where you went to a Halo community, Monster Hunter community or Fortnite community and ask them to vote for Master Chief, Palico or Jonesy and we'll see whose tastes are particular.

Hey. I'm working on that part next.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Hey. I'm working on that part next.

Okay, that sounds cool.

No you’re right he’s really is just a reoccurring enemy

Recurring BOSS. Including the final boss of a mainline Zelda game.

That at least justifies an Echo.

"Just" being a mage is actually a pretty high bar for Smash considering our current mages, aka Zelda and Robin, kinda suck at it.

Palutena rules at it.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I find it fascinating that Smash Ultimate lasted long enough that it kinda covers three generations of Pokemon

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I find it fascinating that Smash Ultimate lasted long enough that it kinda covers three generations of Pokemon

I can only imagine the hell that will be deciding new Poké Ball summons and music post-Sun/Moon (not post Gen 7 in general as there's also ULTRA Sun/Moon to factor).

 

[ninjahmos]

Recurring BOSS. Including the final boss of a mainline Zelda game.

That at least justifies an Echo.

Obligatory text

 

[Laniv]

Obligatory text

I mean, it probably helps that some fighters can't feasibly have echoes. Like, who would be an echo of someone like Wario or Mr. Game & Watch?

 

[TheFirstPoppyBro]

Playtest Program went live, played it for a little less than 3 hours, it's a fun time!

Not gonna say much else about it for obvious reasons, but I'm enjoying it so far.

 

[Scrimblo Bimblo]

If the next Smash game ever decides to add in licensed music, which it probably won't, it'd be pretty wild if they could use songs like Way To Fall (Metal Gear Solid 3), The Man Who Sold The World or even Nuclear (Metal Gear Solid V).

If they decide to do something like that, I'd want a Guitar Hero character...

 

[GoldenYuiitusin]

I mean, it probably helps that some fighters can't feasibly have echoes. Like, who would be an echo of someone like Wario or Mr. Game & Watch?

Booster for Wario.

Kinda forced, but it could work if you swap out the bike for a train.

 

[Kirbeh]

A little off topic so apologies for that but I've been thinking about this since the other day:

So, I've never been an Urban Champion supporter but the conversation a few pages back, started by smashkirby got me thinking, and before I realized, I was actually trying to work out a move set that I think would fit the guy.

So, here's that move set I guess, for anyone that feels like giving it a read.

Spoiler

No Final Smash as of yet. Still couldn't think of one that I found fitting.

I initially threw around the idea of the patrol car showing up and arresting the other players while Champ got away with pretending to not be involved. I don't think that would fly though.

 

[Ivander]

Booster for Wario.

Kinda forced, but it could work if you swap out the bike for a train.

Finally, the perfect character for the Sir Topham Hatt mod.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

If Smash could add in music from other crossover games (which they probably can't), it be pretty cool if they could add in music from Marvel VS Capcom 2 (Carnival Stage, Clock Tower Stage, Swamp Stage) and Capcom VS SNK 2 (Nebuta, This Is True Love Makin', Stimulation).

They probably can, they just don't because said series aren't relevant to Smash currently, and 3rd party tracks in the Other category are pretty rare. In fact, it might even just be the Electroplankton and Snipperclips tracks.

If we were to get Ruby Heart, SonSon, & Amingo (or even just an MvC stage), we'd probably get all the MvC original tracks and maybe even a bunch of SNK vs. Capcom/SVC Chaos original tracks as well. Tatsunoko Vs. Capcom original tracks are possible too, but I wouldn't hold my breath on those.

In terms of MvC track selection, there is the issue of all the character themes being titled "Theme of [CHARACTER]", which bars us from using any Marvel character themes, and that's a huge loss (though they might could get sneaky and include them in medleys). Capcom character themes would be fair game though, and they have some bangers as well.