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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

CrusherMania1592

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A happy 16th anniversary to Super Smash Bros Brawl. I had great memories playing this game as a kid, especially the Subspace Emissary.

View attachment 383760
And I was only a freshmen in high school when this came out

I remember the two years that I spent daily coming here to see what new information was coming out from the daily updates. Good times!


So do you guys feel there's gonna be major cuts in the next game or just to trim down a few? I'd say the latter, but the third parties would be the most in danger outside of Sonic
 

Guynamednelson

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Have you forgotten how outraged people were when they believed Joker's forward smash "came from Falco", or that his up air was "reused from Sheik"?
Honestly, they probably were anyway. Reusing assets is a huge part of game development, no matter how immediately obvious it is.

Besides Wolf having the animations he took from other fighters tweaked to fit his body shape/personality, there's already several characters who aren't clones of Captain Falcon in any way, shape or form and yet use minor animations from him.
 

superprincess

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Honestly, they probably were anyway. Reusing assets is a huge part of game development, no matter how immediately obvious it is.

Besides Wolf having the animations he took from other fighters tweaked to fit his body shape/personality, there's already several characters who aren't clones of Captain Falcon in any way, shape or form and yet use minor animations from him.
You're not proposing a normal reuse of assets though. Zelda's animations have a lot of Peach's DNA in them, and Ness was actually initially built off Mario's skeleton. I'm aware that this is done. What you're though suggesting is an even more blatant and "corner-cutty" repurposing of assets, in an effort to save time/money, as some sort of parallel to the BCP. And I'm letting you know that in this case, it just won't work.

Yes, I know many non-clone fighters share animations with each other. But if your hypothetical "BCP Fighters" do what everyone else was doing, where's the lowered budget, time, and effort spent on these characters?

Reusing animations is a natural part of game development, it shouldn't be shunned.
I'm not shunning it. I know that many fighters reuse others' animations, without necessarily being copy and paste jobs. Bayonetta was built off ZSS, and Piranha Plant was built off Bowser Jr. iirc, and those characters have next to nothing in common! But Guynamednelson's idea is not suggesting that; because that is already in the game. What he's proposing is to Frankenstein a couple movesets (with lower cost & time spent) and throw them in as extra content.
 
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Lionfranky

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2) But look at the non-playable third-parties we got last time: Virtua Fighter, Monster Hunter, Geno, Tales, Tower of Druaga, Tekken, Rayman, etc. Only one actually translated to a character the following time. There's no causation, and not even much correlation.
One can argue that it was much easier to simply import assets with little time given from Smash 4 to Ultimate because the development team immediately began Ultimate development. But this time, the team should be given enough time to reconsider characters that missed the boat. I know so far precedence is that most third party fighters in Ultimate had no content in Smash 4.
 

CannonStreak

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Wait, while we talk about reused animations, the DLC characters from Smash 4 and Ultimate, don't they normally reuse things from other characters?

Not that this may mean anything, just wanted to bring that up, because with what NintenRob said,

Reusing animations is a natural part of game development, it shouldn't be shunned.
If we are talking about if reusing things should be done, I don't think it is a big deal.
 

Hadokeyblade

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Isaac is the golden child of this. He got a huge amount of content. Massive update to his assist trophy, Mii Costume. Bunch of Spirits (including his own being upgradeable to a legendary spirit). Feels like they acknowledged his popularity.
This was probably the best they could have done given how niche his game is.
 

Guynamednelson

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But if your hypothetical "BCP Fighters" do what everyone else was doing, where's the lowered budget, time, and effort spent on these characters?
It'd be in the form of tweaking models that already exist, I guess.
 

Louie G.

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This was probably the best they could have done given how niche his game is.
I mean, they could have done as much as they wanted. There’s no defined barrier of entry. They just barely had enough space for the six new characters they added to begin with, so Isaac presumably wasn’t as high a priority.

Could we retire the word “niche” as a buzzword next game? I think that’d be cool.
 

Will

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I mean, they could have done as much as they wanted. There’s no defined barrier of entry. They just barely had enough space for the six new characters they added to begin with, so Isaac presumably wasn’t as high a priority.

Could we retire the word “niche” as a buzzword next game? I think that’d be cool.
You can’t spell Smashbuzzwordspeculation without buzzword. :4pacman:
 

Louie G.

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I cant help it if the only characters left that i want fall into the niche category of games lol
Smash caters to niches all the time, it’s just not a very good descriptor for why a character or a series is in a bad spot on its own. Granted, Ultimate’s base roster went for mass appeal through the latest (Inkling / Isabelle) and greatest (Ridley / K. Rool) hits, but I think that boils down to Isaac’s lack of contemporary presence and maybe just lagging behind in popularity compared to the big boys.

In roster of 10-14 new faces though, some are bound to be more niche. So honestly, I guess I agree with you on principle given how exclusive Ultimate’s roster was, which is why I’d like us to shed away from that concern next game and let a few oddballs back into the conversation.

And even so, I’d say Metroid is on the more “niche” side compared to the others and K. Rool was a relative unknown to the last decade of young Nintendo fans. The first Golden Sun has actually sold comparable numbers to the average Metroid game.
 
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superprincess

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Do people realize "niche" means nothing when it comes to a franchise's inclusion in Smash? Are we really gatekeeping "niche" franchises when Smash added Earthbound/Mother and F-Zero in its first game, then immediately followed up with Ice Climber and Fire Emblem (at the time) being the only new universes in its second entry?

I don't feel strongly enough about Isaac to make a case for or against him, but you really can't dismiss him on the basis of being "niche". Even Ultimate, the game that was explicitly set out to be a huge crossover of gaming icons, didn't shy away from "niche" characters. King K. Rool's home series has basically written him off entirely, with his last important role being 25 years ago. Meanwhile, Banjo-Kazooie has been dormant and is completely unknown to the new generation of gamers. These two can be described as niche in almost the same way Isaac can, and they sure found their way in. Ergo, so can Isaac.
 

dream1ng

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Do people realize "niche" means nothing when it comes to a franchise's inclusion in Smash? Are we really gatekeeping "niche" franchises when Smash added Earthbound/Mother and F-Zero in its first game, then immediately followed up with Ice Climber and Fire Emblem (at the time) being the only new universes in its second entry?
Means something. That's why we'd expect Ring Fit Adventure and Astral Chain over Labo and Sushi Striker.

That's why people would expect Golden Sun over Sin & Punishment. And Rhythm Heaven over Dillon.

I don't feel strongly enough about Isaac to make a case for or against him, but you really can't dismiss him on the basis of being "niche". Even Ultimate, the game that was explicitly set out to be a huge crossover of gaming icons, didn't shy away from "niche" characters. King K. Rool's home series has basically written him off entirely, with his last important role being 25 years ago. Meanwhile, Banjo-Kazooie has been dormant and is completely unknown to the new generation of gamers. These two can be described as niche in almost the same way Isaac can, and they sure found their way in. Ergo, so can Isaac.
First of all, K. Rool isn't niche. He's dormant. The DKC trilogy, Donkey Kong Land trilogy, and DK64 together have sold close to 40 million copies. That's not niche. Yes the audience erodes over time, but the DK series itself has continued, helping maintain engagement, even if without K. Rool.

If you're describing K. Rool as niche in the same way Isaac is, you've overlooked a massive difference between them.

You'd have a better argument with Banjo, but even then, that series is in the 5-6 mil range, which is about twice that of GS. More over, third-parties and first-parties are not held to the same standards. The series not being in great shape is less of a hindrance for third-parties. Presumably because Nintendo doesn't really have an active vested interest in the wellbeing of that franchise.

You want a real niche third-party? Look at Geno. He might get in this time but... all that popularity hasn't helped him yet. Being niche (genuinely niche, not just not current) is indeed a hindrance. It's not fatal, but it exists for sure.

Plus, by your logic, you could equate K. Rool to... Muddy Mole. Both haven't shown up in a while. Forget different levels of series prominence, forget different levels of character popularity, forget whether the series itself is still active, you are saying if your (frankly incorrect) interpretation of niche didn't stop one character, it wouldn't be a factor. But of course it's a factor. Some characters have enough merit to overcome the obstacle of not being current (which is not the same as being niche - is Ocarina of Time niche? It's not current), or not being hugely successful, but most don't. Most roster spots do go to quite well-known characters/series, most of whom (especially regarding first-parties) are active. Not being prohibited from inclusion is not the same as not being hurt by certain qualities.

Isaac's dormancy obviously hurts him, because if his series remained active and ongoing, he'd have gotten in at some point already.
 
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Hadokeyblade

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Do people realize "niche" means nothing when it comes to a franchise's inclusion in Smash? Are we really gatekeeping "niche" franchises when Smash added Earthbound/Mother and F-Zero in its first game, then immediately followed up with Ice Climber and Fire Emblem (at the time) being the only new universes in its second entry?

I don't feel strongly enough about Isaac to make a case for or against him, but you really can't dismiss him on the basis of being "niche". Even Ultimate, the game that was explicitly set out to be a huge crossover of gaming icons, didn't shy away from "niche" characters. King K. Rool's home series has basically written him off entirely, with his last important role being 25 years ago. Meanwhile, Banjo-Kazooie has been dormant and is completely unknown to the new generation of gamers. These two can be described as niche in almost the same way Isaac can, and they sure found their way in. Ergo, so can Isaac.
Im not gatekeeping anything.

It's redundant to gatekeep the things i like, i just know to keep my expectations as low as possible.
 

Scrimblo Bimblo

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The odds of characters becoming playable after being promoted from non-playable roles are going to become bigger, as the amount of notable non-playable roles increases.

Quite a few Ultimate newcomers already had roles like those:
-Ridley: boss / stage hazard
-K. Rool: Mii costume
-Isabelle: AT, Mii costume
-Chrom: Final Smash, Mii costume
-Dark Samus: AT
-Piranha Plant: stage hazard in Smash 64

I'd say AT, Mii costumes and 4-star Spirits are decent places to look at.
 

Guynamednelson

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4-star Spirits
Eh, not necessarily. Some Spirits only have the ratings they have because they're early in WoL, are dungeon bosses, etc. I doubt James McCloud is a potential candidate for a Star Fox fighter for example.
 

NintenRob

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The odds of characters becoming playable after being promoted from non-playable roles are going to become bigger, as the amount of notable non-playable roles increases.

Quite a few Ultimate newcomers already had roles like those:
-Ridley: boss / stage hazard
-K. Rool: Mii costume
-Isabelle: AT, Mii costume
-Chrom: Final Smash, Mii costume
-Dark Samus: AT
-Piranha Plant: stage hazard in Smash 64

I'd say AT, Mii costumes and 4-star Spirits are decent places to look at.
I'm curious how many characters hit the bingo on all three of those roles
 

Guynamednelson

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I know Skull Kid too but how many others?
Ashley and the Black Knight.

But as I said spirits with low star ratings aren't always unpopular characters, they are just encountered earlier in certain WoL sections than 4-star bosses.
 

GoldenYuiitusin

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Controversial thing to say, but people really oversell how having an Assist role helps for the future.
If anything, it's the opposite. The ratio of Assist to playable fighter is downright abysmal if you actually do the math.

Out of 48 Assists that have been in Brawl or For, only 3 have made the jump. And the ratio is only going to get worse when we factor in Ultimate's new ones once the next game is out.

And the three that have happened were extraneous cases.
:4littlemac:: Punch-Out!! for the Wii happened between Brawl and when For's design document was drafted, reviving the series (albeit temporarily; I guarantee Mac wouldn't be in now if he didn't get in For).

:ultisabelle:: Literally didn't exist when For's design document was drafted, so she COULDN'T have been picked for For as a fighter to begin with. But since the design document, New Leaf had been released and Isabelle became one of the faces of Animal Crossing if not the face.

:ultdarksamus:: Only got in because Echoes were a thing for Ultimate and happened to have demand from the Ballot to warrant the idea.


I'm not including Charizard in this because if I did, the ratio would be much worse factoring in all the Pokémon that didn't become fighters (as Charizard is literally the only one and it was as part of :pt: 's gimmick).
 

NintenRob

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Controversial thing to say, but people really oversell how having an Assist role helps for the future.
If anything, it's the opposite. The ratio of Assist to playable fighter is downright abysmal if you actually do the math.

Out of 48 Assists that have been in Brawl or For, only 3 have made the jump. And the ratio is only going to get worse when we factor in Ultimate's new ones once the next game is out.

And the three that have happened were extraneous cases.
:4littlemac:: Punch-Out!! for the Wii happened between Brawl and when For's design document was drafted, reviving the series (albeit temporarily; I guarantee Mac wouldn't be in now if he didn't get in For).

:ultisabelle:: Literally didn't exist when For's design document was drafted, so she COULDN'T have been picked for For as a fighter to begin with. But since the design document, New Leaf had been released and Isabelle became one of the faces of Animal Crossing if not the face.

:ultdarksamus:: Only got in because Echoes were a thing for Ultimate and happened to have demand from the Ballot to warrant the idea.


I'm not including Charizard in this because if I did, the ratio would be much worse factoring in all the Pokémon that didn't become fighters (as Charizard is literally the only one and it was as part of :pt: 's gimmick).
This is a fair point, I'd almost argue being an Assist Trophy for multiple games in a row with nothing new to your name would be more detrimental than anything, like your role in Smash has been solidified. Same can be said for multi game Mii Costumes
 

NintenRob

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Ashley and the Black Knight.

But as I said spirits with low star ratings aren't always unpopular characters, they are just encountered earlier in certain WoL sections than 4-star bosses.
I think a lot went into what star rank your spirit would get. It certainly isn't just about popularity, in universe role definitely played a part. Not sure I agree with the sentiment that they're low stars because they're encountered early on, I think it's more likely they're encountered early on because they're low stars. But there are definitely popular low star spirits and unfeasible 4 star spirits
 

Ivander

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Out of the mii fighter we ended up getting i think Dante's the most likely.
Dante is pretty likely because Capcom is often easy to work with, but I wouldn't say he's the most likely. Especially with him competing with a whole bunch of other notable Capcom characters and IPs. Chun-Li, Zero, possibly another Classic Megaman character like Dr. Wily or Roll, Monster Hunter and Resident Evil.
Aside from Sans from the incredibly popular response to his Mii costume, I think Shantae has an increasing possibility what with Wayforward making the new Advance Wars game and, if that game exceeded Nintendo's expectations, the possibility of being another partner Nintendo works with for future Nintendo games. Also helps that Sakurai acknowledged Shantae being highly requested and she is notably popular all-around, including Japan.

Edit: Also a shout-out to Bomberman, being the 3rd Konami series(although he was originally Hudson Soft) to appear in Smash even without a playable character. And not only did he get an Assist Trophy, but also a Mii Costume.
 
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Scrimblo Bimblo

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I think a lot went into what star rank your spirit would get. It certainly isn't just about popularity, in universe role definitely played a part. Not sure I agree with the sentiment that they're low stars because they're encountered early on, I think it's more likely they're encountered early on because they're low stars. But there are definitely popular low star spirits and unfeasible 4 star spirits
4-star spirits are usually either "mythological" figures in their own series, characters with overpowered capabilities / tough boss battles, or just straight-up popular characters.

How much spirit power can two monkeys on a boat have?
 

DarthEnderX

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But still, I did not mean harm at all, okay?
For what it's worth...


...you were right.

Are we really gatekeeping "niche" franchises
Yes. Constantly. It is one of the many gates we keep.

The ratio of Assist to playable fighter is downright abysmal if you actually do the math.

Out of 48 Assists that have been in Brawl or For, only 3 have made the jump.
That's 6.25%. That's a hell of a lot higher than the % of non-Assist characters that have been promoted to playable Fighters. If you actually do the math.
 
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Scrimblo Bimblo

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That's 6.25%. That's a hell of a lot higher than the % of non-Assist characters that have been promoted to playable Fighters. If you actually do the math.
And the ratio becomes even higher if you remove stuff like Andross, Devil, a random Metroid, the Nintendog, Dr. Wright, the Lakitu sprite and all the others who couldn't really work as a fighter anyways.
 
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SPEN18

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Out of 48 Assists that have been in Brawl or For, only 3 have made the jump. And the ratio is only going to get worse when we factor in Ultimate's new ones once the next game is out.
To be fair, the ratio does get better if you factor out a pretty sizeable portion of the ATs which are clearly not going to become fighters.

The bigger point to make of course is that not all ATs are created equal. Thwomp being made an AT does not have nearly the same significance or motivations that say Isaac being made an AT does. So it comes down to a case-by-case basis, analyzing the reasons why they're an AT, and therefore looking at the ratio probably isn't all that helpful other than to say that AT promos are squarely on the table but probably aren't going to constitute the entire bulk of the newcomers.

Overall I think it's pretty smart to expect that at least somebody from the current AT pool will become playable in the future. But when looking at a particular character's chances, them being an AT right now might or might not be a strong indicator, and it's our job as speculators to try to figure that out.
 
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NintenRob

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Alrighty, for my own sake. Here's a list of characters who are Assist Trophies, Mii Costume and Legendary Spirit


Isaac
Skull Kid
Squid Sisters
Ashley
Black Knight
Zero
Akira


I think that's all of them, though there are some like Viridi who aren't assist trophies but have some other role instead
 

Scrimblo Bimblo

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The suspicious ATs list:
-Bomberman
-Krystal
-Alucard
-Isaac
-Zero
-Shovel Knight
-Black Knight
-Knuckles
-Shadow
-Sukapon
-Skull Mid
-Midna
-Ashley
-Takamaru
-Waluigi
-Lyn
-Akira
-Saki (RIP)

+ The somewhat suspicious ATs but not really that much:
-Samurai Goroh
-Spring Man
-Guile
-Gray Fox
-Prince of Sable
 

NintenRob

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Alrighty, for my own sake. Here's a list of characters who are Assist Trophies, Mii Costume and Legendary Spirit


Isaac
Skull Kid
Squid Sisters
Ashley
Black Knight
Zero
Akira


I think that's all of them, though there are some like Viridi who aren't assist trophies but have some other role instead
Of this list, I think the one being slept on the most may be Squid Sisters. Sure, people always look at Octolings as the next Splatoon rep via echo, but if they're looking to give Splatoon a second unique rep, I reckon one way or another we'll see Squid Sisters playable
 

SPEN18

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Of this list, I think the one being slept on the most may be Squid Sisters. Sure, people always look at Octolings as the next Splatoon rep via echo, but if they're looking to give Splatoon a second unique rep, I reckon one way or another we'll see Squid Sisters playable
It's certainly a possibility. I think it may depend on what Sakurai wants to do with Octoling; we could get unique Octoling or we could get Echo Octoling + someone else unique. Even in the latter scenario, there is other competition such as DJ Octavio, so I'm not banking on playable Squid Sisters, but yeah they're a little slept on as candidates.

edit: sorry for double post
 
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Scrimblo Bimblo

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Ok, here's the complete list of suspicious ATs/Mii costumes/4 star spirits/bosses:

-Bomberman
-Krystal
-Alucard
-Isaac
-Zero
-Shovel Knight
-Black Knight
-Knuckles
-Shadow
-Tails
-Sukapon
-Skull Mid
-Midna
-Ghirahim
-Ashley
-Takamaru
-Waluigi
-Lyn
-Akira
-Saki
-Squid Sisters
-Samurai Goroh
-Spring Man
-Guile
-Gray Fox
-Prince of Sable
-Altair
-Arthur
-Chibi Robo
-Cuphead
-Dante
-Dixie Kong
-Doom Slayer
-Dragonborn
-Dunban
-Geno
-Goemon
-Heihachi
-Iori
-Jacky Briant
-Lip
-Lloyd
-Marx
-Nakoruru
-Octoling
-Ray Mk III
-Rabbid
-Sans
-Shantae
-Monster Hunter
-Toad
-Travis
-Vault Boy
-Dillon
-Tifa
-Barret
-Aerith
-Viridi
-Pauline
-Black Shadow
-Leon / Jill / Chris / Wesker

You could build a couple of amazing newcomer line-ups just pulling from this list 🤞

Also, I've noticed that every Legend Spirit who's a popular character also has either an AT or a Mii Costume, sometimes both.
Black Shadow and Pauline are pretty much the only exceptions.
 
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