Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Michael the Spikester]

Thus the week begins. Let's see where the 28th leads us to.

 

[Deleted member]

Thus the week begins. Let's see where the 28th leads us to.

here we go!
heavy for smash btw

Only a few days and all will be revealed. Are the leaks true? Will we get a general direct, or is it gonna be another partner showcase? we'll just have to wait and see

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Be right back, gonna ask vanillaware to put Muramasa on switch

 

[ceterisparibus]

110k for Halo 3 actually.

Either way its still really low compared to the 3rd parties represented. If we ever got one its not because they were well received in Japan.

The solution to these Doom and Halo debates is simple. Add both characters, their home games have such radically different design philosophies that they'd end up being completely unique in terms of moveset and playstyle

I don’t know, it seems like Bethesda had some
form of discussions with Nintendo. I guess Nintendo just wasn’t interested sadly.
I agree 100%. If we can get such good representation for the JRPG genre (justifiably), then it shouldn’t be unreasonable to ask the same for the FPS genre. Chief, Doom Slayer, Gordon Freeman, Tracer & Heavy could be as diverse in playstyle as Marth, Cloud, Joker, Hero & Pikachu.

I’m definitely the Master Chief guy, but I really want Doom Slayer too. I just don’t support him too much anymore since Bethesda basically said he’s out of the running. But I’ll die of happiness if it turns out they were just lying.

I don't think "raised it up casually and never got beyond the first stage" counts as actual discussion. But i want to point out something else.
To play devil's advocate, it's entirely likely we will not even see any FPS rep in this pass. They're non-factors in Japan - which already puts them behind other genres/franchises. Although Nintendo priorities can easily change/sway, we've had a consistent trend of japanese-led games (only 1 character out of the whole roster is from the west, and after years of begging).
Exemptions can 100% happen, and all you need is your favorite to break the trend. But that doesn't mean we'll send a sudden shift to western franchises out of nowhere.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Pulling for Phoenix Wright. Come on Phoenix Wright!

 

[SKX31]

If anything, i would speculate that both are extremely unpopular in Japan (doom 16 sold like...10k copies and even Halo 3, the very peak of the franchise sold....50k although it was attached to an irrelevant console). But i think the real argument should be whether a truly foreigner driven pick does justify the ambivalence in their home country (to which, naturally the halo franchise is more successful/bigger financially than doom).

Well, Guybrush20X6 posted a thread / link re: Japanese reactions to 6 1/2 years ago.

I'll also emphasize Legends of Localization's disclaimer, that:

"So I’ve gone around to a number of different sites and message boards, gathered up a bunch of different comments, and translated them here. Keep in mind that this isn’t indicative of ALL Japanese gamers – I’m just posting what I’ve seen,"

"He’s always been a highly-wanted character overseas"

"Too niche, should’ve been left as a trophy. They should be using other companies’ characters before ones like this"

"He’s extremely popular overseas and has been around since the Famicom days. I only learned about him from Captain Rainbow, though"

"I dunno who this is. They should’ve used the guy from Kung Fu instead"

Thus, I don't think that a foreigner-driven pick is much of a hassle at all - Nintendo's also a global company for all intents and purposes. If they want something like Doom Guy, Master Chief or something like a League of Legends character, chances are that Nintendo views the pick as worth the ambivalence in the home country.

 

[Deleted member]

Pulling for Phoenix Wright. Come on Phoenix Wright!

I've been seeing a resurgence in support for my man the lawyer and I'm happy for ya'll that support him. As for me personally I'm still going for my pipedream pick, but I'm gonna be happy with whatever.

 

[ceterisparibus]

Well, Guybrush20X6 posted a thread / link re: Japanese reactions to 6 1/2 years ago.

I'll also emphasize Legends of Localization's disclaimer, that:

"So I’ve gone around to a number of different sites and message boards, gathered up a bunch of different comments, and translated them here. Keep in mind that this isn’t indicative of ALL Japanese gamers – I’m just posting what I’ve seen,"






Thus, I don't think that a foreigner-driven pick is much of a hassle at all - Nintendo's also a global company for all intents and purposes. If they want something like Doom Guy, Master Chief or something like a League of Legends character, chances are that Nintendo views the pick as worth the ambivalence in the home country.

Little Mac is first-party, and as the first-party pool shrinks it's only natural that nintendo starts looking at smaller characters to pad the roster (nothing wrong there). There's still a ton of 3rd party franchises recognizable worldwide from japanese publishers that are much easier for sakurai and his team to work with (language barriers/time differences/natural connections to the industry), and ultimately Nintendo is still driven by people who are influenced by their local industry.
"Maybe" now and then they might look beyond and realize "oh hey its mr fps/xbox mascot, he could probably be that pick that really reaches out to new audiences, give us a good amount of press, and overcome the inertia from our local audience" but it's like what i said - an exemption. You would probably need something really big or popular in japan (minecraft/crash) to possibly overcome it.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Either way its still really low compared to the 3rd parties represented. If we ever got one its not because they were well received in Japan.



I don't think "raised it up casually and never got beyond the first stage" counts as actual discussion. But i want to point out something else.
To play devil's advocate, it's entirely likely we will not even see any FPS rep in this pass. They're non-factors in Japan - which already puts them behind other genres/franchises. Although Nintendo priorities can easily change/sway, we've had a consistent trend of japanese-led games (only 1 character out of the whole roster is from the west, and after years of begging).
Exemptions can 100% happen, and all you need is your favorite to break the trend. But that doesn't mean we'll send a sudden shift to western franchises out of nowhere.

Like I’ve said before I don’t think we’re going to get a sudden shift to western franchises. But I think it’s absolutely possible that we’ll see them
mixed in with Japanese series.

If Nintendo wants to keep adding bigger series to Smash, which I imagine they do since it’s good for marketing, they’ll probably have to start adding some big western franchises soon.

Not going to lie, it’d pretty insulting if they go through the notable Japanese series left like DMC, Tales, Kingdom Hearts, Puyo Puyo, etc... then shift their focus to niche characters like KOS-MOS or Ryza while seemingly refusing to add western characters. Especially when series like Soul Calibur & Tekken add the likes of Geralt, Negan, Darth Vader, Spawn & Ezio.

& yes, you’re absolutely right that a FPS character isn’t guaranteed. If we get a western character it could be Crash, Steve, Ezio, Lara Croft, etc... But hey, there’s always a chance we do get a FPS character. So I can continue to hope & speculate.

 

[TwiceEXE]

Not going to lie, it’d pretty insulting if they go through the notable Japanese series left like DMC, Tales, Kingdom Hearts, Puyo Puyo, etc... then shift their focus to niche characters like KOS-MOS or Ryza while seemingly refusing to add western characters. Especially when series like Soul Calibur & Tekken add the likes of Geralt, Negan, Darth Vader, Spawn & Ezio.

Well the good news is you probably won't need to worry about that for Ultimate since there are only 5 characters left. They aren't going to get all the big Japanese series into the game no matter what.

Also, the characters you consider niche may be bigger in Japan than the characters you consider big. So it's really a matter of perspective.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

The direct on the 28th may be another Partner's Showcase.

This is a pretty good summation of what you should know about the upcoming Nintendo event. It's weird that August 28 is a Friday, so I'm not confident at all that's a general Direct. It could be any number of things. But do expect a Direct equivalent by the middle of September. https://t.co/T0jKAlNpBR

— Grubb (@JeffGrubb) August 22, 2020

 

[MooMew64]

Emily Roger's says Pikmin 3 was supposed to come out in Spring, but Covid pushed it back.

So yeah, things have been slower because Nintendo got hit really hard by the pandemic. TBH if a Wii U port got hit with a delay that long, I don't think that means good things for more major projects or implies Nintendo has a ton to reveal ATM.

 

[Garteam]

This could just be me misremembering, but didn't Sakurai say something along the lines of "we're running out of big Japanese franchises to add to Smash" when discussing Castlevania? Looking at Japan's biggest franchises, the only ones that don't have playable characters are Resident Evil, Tekken (both of which are represented through non-playable content), and Kingdom Hearts (which has the Disney wall). That really only leaves two options for future third parties:

1. Add smaller Japanese franchises.
2. Add big western franchises.

Judging by the last Fighter's Pass, Sakurai seems to be gravitating more towards the first option, as we can see from Persona and Fatal Fury's inclusion. That being said, I think the Vault Boy costume shows that Sakurai may not be opposed to pursuing the second option in the future.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Also, the characters you consider niche may be bigger in Japan than the characters you consider big. So it's really a matter of perspective.

That is a fair point. & those series could have cult classic support like Banjo or Geno do here.

I would prefer a mix. That keeps things interesting. Wondering if the next character is from Nintendo, a big Japanese series, a big Western series or a smaller series from either side is more fun than thinking the choices are limited to only 2 or 3 types of character/series.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

Honestly it doesn't really feel like Smash has gone for really niche stuff in either the West or Japan for the DLC:

-Joker/Terry/Byleth/Min Min didn't feel particularly well more well known in one region vs the other.
-Hero is an icon in Japan, but all mainline DQ games have all come out in the States with consistently solid sales and are still going strong.
-Banjo was much bigger in the US, but still seemed somewhat known in Japan, even in comparison to someone like Little Mac.

I do think the rest of the pass will likely follow similar lines with something equivalent for Japan and the West on the level of Hero and Banjo, but not something super obscure to either region.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Honestly it doesn't really feel like Smash has gone for really niche stuff in either the West or Japan for the DLC:

-Joker/Terry/Byleth/Min Min didn't feel particularly well more well known in one region vs the other.
-Hero is an icon in Japan, but all mainline DQ games have all come out in the States with consistently solid sales and are still going strong.
-Banjo was much bigger in the US, but still seemed somewhat known in Japan, even in comparison to someone like Little Mac.

I do think the rest of the pass will likely follow similar lines with something equivalent for Japan and the West on the level of Hero and Banjo, but not something super obscure to either region.

Here's how Kiryu-Chan can still win.

 

[TwiceEXE]

-Hero is an icon in Japan, but all mainline DQ games have all come out in the States with consistently solid sales and are still going strong.

DQ 10 wasn't brought to the West. It's why 11 being brought over was a big relief to Western fans. Now, you could debate whether 10 is a true mainline game or not but I think most people do consider it one.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

DQ 10 wasn't brought to the West. It's why 11 being brought over was a big relief to Western fans. Now, you could debate whether 10 is a true mainline game or not but I think most people do consider it one.

You are right, though its MMORPG status does make it a bit of an outlier in the series. Square Enix may have simply figured that single releases in the West are worth the investment while the continued costs of a service were not, especially given the competition already over there.

 

[Teeb147]

The direct on the 28th may be another Partner's Showcase.

This is a pretty good summation of what you should know about the upcoming Nintendo event. It's weird that August 28 is a Friday, so I'm not confident at all that's a general Direct. It could be any number of things. But do expect a Direct equivalent by the middle of September. https://t.co/T0jKAlNpBR

— Grubb (@JeffGrubb) August 22, 2020

Well, the others talking about it mentioned it's a general direct right?
I guess that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be a big one, though it'd be weird if there was another direct in september after this one if both are general. But who knows. I do hope there's a smash reveal friday anyway

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

"I dunno who this is. They should’ve used the guy from Kung Fu instead"

Oof! How sad is it when Japan thinks an unnamed character from a single generic game (that isn't even all that robust) would be a better pick than Little Mac.

-Joker/Terry/Byleth/Min Min didn't feel particularly well more well known in one region vs the other.

Iirc, Terry is more well known in Japan than North America (South America and China is where he's big, but as far as Japan vs. America goes, I think he at least exists in Japan whereas in America, he may as well not). Also I'd argue Min Min is a more niche pick regardless of the region.

Emily Roger's says Pikmin 3 was supposed to come out in Spring, but Covid pushed it back.

So yeah, things have been slower because Nintendo got hit really hard by the pandemic. TBH if a Wii U port got hit with a delay that long, I don't think that means good things for more major projects or implies Nintendo has a ton to reveal ATM.

Seems all the more reason to not expect an actual direct until next year.
EDIT EDIT: Especially considering it continued to get worse since Spring and has yet to actually get any better.

Well, the others talking about it mentioned it's a general direct right?
I guess that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be a big one, though it'd be weird if there was another direct in september after this one if both are general. But who knows. I do hope there's a smash reveal friday anyway

If there is going to be a direct in September, then it's very likely that everyone's lying about something. If that's the case, I'd bet it's either another Partner Showcase, or it's not happening at all.

EDIT: Wouldn't be surprised if the September direct is also a lie though.

 

[Teeb147]

If there is going to be a direct in September, then it's very likely that everyone's lying about something. If that's the case, I'd bet it's either another Partner Showcase, or it's not happening at all.

EDIT: Wouldn't be surprised if the September direct is also a lie though.

I don't see why multiple leaker-type people would say it's a not a partnered one tho. The tweet shared on this page isn't really sure it's a partner, just guessing from things.. so who do you take it from? I guess it's good not to straight up expect a general, but it'd be nice.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I don't see why multiple leaker-type people would say it's a not a partnered one tho. The tweet shared on this page isn't really sure it's a partner, just guessing from things.. so who do you take it from? I guess it's good not to straight up expect a general, but it'd be nice.

I think it's been stated that all the insiders claimed that the Partner Showcase would be a general direct as well, and were caught off-guard by the Partner Showcase. It could very well be the same mistake. But then I am pretty cynical about this since the Partner Showcase basically told me that Nintendo has nothing to show for the rest of the year. Would be glad to be proven wrong.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

If it’s not a whole Direct, and we just had an Indie Direct, then that’s either a Partner Showcase or a Smash presentation.

I’m leaning Partner Showcase, but would be glad to have a general or Smash one obviously. In the mean time I’ll be continuing my backlog.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

If it’s not a whole Direct, and we just had an Indie Direct, then that’s either a Partner Showcase or a Smash presentation.

I’m leaning Partner Showcase, but would be glad to have a general or Smash one obviously. In the mean time I’ll be continuing my backlog.

I could see it being a Super Mario direct or something like that if the Mario remaster rumor is true. It could be a very small direct: show the Mario collection,3d world deluxe and maybe 1 spin off (a sports game or Mario kart 9) for 2021.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

In the mean time I’ll be continuing my backlog.

Same, though I still want to be excited for new releases. The more I think about it, the more it sounds like a problem:

"I want games to look forward to!"
"But you're not even halfway through Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition yet."
"But, but...new games!"
"You also haven't finished Xenoblade Chronicles 2 yet."
"But...new games."
"Or Fire Emblem: Three Houses, or Darksiders: Warmastered Edition, or Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age, or Ni No Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch, or Battlechasers: Nightwar, and you haven't even touched Final Fantasy X and Final Fantasy X-2 yet."
"But...but..."

And these are all like, 100+ hour games too. I dunno what the deal is.

 

[MooMew64]

If it’s not a whole Direct, and we just had an Indie Direct, then that’s either a Partner Showcase or a Smash presentation.

I’m leaning Partner Showcase, but would be glad to have a general or Smash one obviously. In the mean time I’ll be continuing my backlog.

I'm feeling the first two weeks of September are gonna be our potential dates for a Sakurai Presents, considering amiibo pattern hasn't let us down yet. Maybe third week of September at the latest.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

All in all I just HOPE they don’t pull another guessing game ever again

 

[JCKirbs]

If it’s not a whole Direct, and we just had an Indie Direct, then that’s either a Partner Showcase or a Smash presentation.

I’m leaning Partner Showcase, but would be glad to have a general or Smash one obviously. In the mean time I’ll be continuing my backlog.

Perhaps we could get another Direct Mini, unless those count as whole Directs as well at this point.
Because the last Direct Mini was a bit more lengthy than I would’ve expected it to be.

 

[I.D.]

The direct on the 28th may be another Partner's Showcase.

This is a pretty good summation of what you should know about the upcoming Nintendo event. It's weird that August 28 is a Friday, so I'm not confident at all that's a general Direct. It could be any number of things. But do expect a Direct equivalent by the middle of September. https://t.co/T0jKAlNpBR

— Grubb (@JeffGrubb) August 22, 2020

Objection

 

[chocolatejr9]

Say, has Nintendo Dream ever revealed any games? Because this might support the rumors that something is coming. Keyword: MIGHT.

Next issue of Nintendo Dream revealing a Switch game “that everyone will enjoy” https://t.co/YW4qFM3ngu pic.twitter.com/Si4m2kktP6

— Nintendo Everything (@NinEverything) August 23, 2020

 

[Schnee117]

Say, has Nintendo Dream ever revealed any games? Because this might support the rumors that something is coming. Keyword: MIGHT.

Next issue of Nintendo Dream revealing a Switch game “that everyone will enjoy” https://t.co/YW4qFM3ngu pic.twitter.com/Si4m2kktP6

— Nintendo Everything (@NinEverything) August 23, 2020

I can't wait for Bakugan 2

 

[Teeb147]

If it’s not a whole Direct, and we just had an Indie Direct, then that’s either a Partner Showcase or a Smash presentation.

I’m leaning Partner Showcase, but would be glad to have a general or Smash one obviously. In the mean time I’ll be continuing my backlog.

Hey I'd be ok with an indie showcase with an indie character for smash reveal XD

I think it's been stated that all the insiders claimed that the Partner Showcase would be a general direct as well, and were caught off-guard by the Partner Showcase. It could very well be the same mistake. But then I am pretty cynical about this since the Partner Showcase basically told me that Nintendo has nothing to show for the rest of the year. Would be glad to be proven wrong.

I think it's different in this case, considering who's saying it, but I'm actually not sure who said it's a full direct last time, so who knows lol

 

[Lamperouge]

Objection

View attachment 283204

I don't know what to ****ing believe any anymore.

 

[Gentlepanda]

nate has thrown down the gauntlet

are you one of nate's mates or are you in grubb club

 

[SpectreJordan]

Honestly it doesn't really feel like Smash has gone for really niche stuff in either the West or Japan for the DLC:

-Joker/Terry/Byleth/Min Min didn't feel particularly well more well known in one region vs the other.
-Hero is an icon in Japan, but all mainline DQ games have all come out in the States with consistently solid sales and are still going strong.
-Banjo was much bigger in the US, but still seemed somewhat known in Japan, even in comparison to someone like Little Mac.

I do think the rest of the pass will likely follow similar lines with something equivalent for Japan and the West on the level of Hero and Banjo, but not something super obscure to either region.

I definitely feel like people underrate Joker & Terry.

Persona 5 was a critical darling & sold really well. Hell, the recent Steam port of Persona 4 (a 12 year old game) just sold 1 million copies in about a month. Persona’s a pretty big deal now.

King of Fighters isn’t as big as Persona. But I’d say most fighting game fans know who Terry is. That’s not a particularly large group of people but Terry isn’t some complete unknown in the US. I’m speaking from personal experience on this since I hadn’t played a KOF game until last year but I’ve known Terry for yeeeears.

 

[Lamperouge]

nate has thrown down the gauntlet

are you one of nate's mates or are you in grubb club

Nate tells me what I want to hear so obviously I gotta side with him.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

As I've said before, I'm afraid I can't believe in any Direct until the exact moment Doug Bowser and Sakurai are doing an in person presentation at my house with refreshments.

 

[MooMew64]

Objection

View attachment 283204

This reads out like speculation more than a leak.

Remember, he said this exact same stuff before and after the last Partner Showcase.

 

[RouffWestie]

Plot twist; it’s a game specific direct introducing a new collab Project between a first party and third party IP.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

nate has thrown down the gauntlet

are you one of nate's mates or are you in grubb club

I fight for my friends.