As a fellow fan, I would say I'm willing to compromise on the bloof and gore to get him in Smash, and moveset isn't an issue, but Mortal Kombat is very unpopular in Japan. As much as Sakurai claims he's doing a crossover for all games, Smash is clearly Japanese centric, so I think that more than anything might hurt his chances.
But I'd love for it to happen. Ryu vs. Scorpion is something that I need to see during my lifetime.
I've heard this argument and I think it's the most difficult obstacle of his to overcome. Not only is it unpopular in Japan, but the most recent game was banned there. And yes, as much as Sakurai and Co. like to claim its a massive crossover, we've only got 4 characters in a roster of 80+ that were created by western developers.
So here's my counter to this point: what if Scorpion was chosen as the western, or more specifically American, DLC rep? Now hear me out on this. People say that Banjo and Kazooie were the "western pick", but I say that's a bunch of baloney. The duo placed very high on Japanese fan polls conducted throughout the last several years. They've both been wanted across the whole world. Sure, they are owned by a western company, so that's an argument for being western. But as the west's pick like Terry is for South America and Hero is for Japan, I don't buy it. I think Banjo and Kazooie were for everyone.
If that is the case, then one could argue that no representative has been chosen for DLC to satiate American fans. (Keep in mind that I'm referring specially to DLC, so Ridley shouldn't even be part of the conversation.) When it comes to relevant games and characters, especially those in the competitive fighting scene, and when it comes to leaving a legacy and the overall appeal of the character and franchise in general, Scorpion's impact on western gaming is undeniable. I would argue that Scorpion is bigger over here than all the other main reps from other fighting, except for maybe Ryu. (Definitely Terry, Siegfreid, or anybody from Tekken and Virtua Fighter.) He is arguably
the fighting game character over here in America. With his iconic look and instantly recognizable catch phrase, he could be Sakurai's way of truly throwing a bone to American audiences.
I'd throw in The Prince of All Cosmos as well (taunt cameo isn't stopping Heihachi speculation), along with an Idolm@ster rep.
Also thank you for mentioning Aiai, he'd make for a great second SEGA rep if the more popular options aren't chosen and he has a lot going for him!
In regards to Scorpion, even taking western catering into account how much would he actually sell in Japan as a DLC fighter. They could tone him down but still, he's essentially advertising a banned game series, which wouldn't make much sense. I know Nintendo takes the whole world into consideration but they do consider the Japanese market as they know it best, so even if it wasn't banned I don't see Scorpion selling too well as a character over there. Same goes for Doom Slayer and Tracer as they never caught on over there (I know there's a Japanese fan project but it's still very niche), though I don't want to beat a dead horse.
Like I mentioned in another comment, I think this point right here is the strongest one against him. The blood and gore thing can be overcome quickly, but this aspect of his existence is definitely a knock against him.
However, even though the game is banned, let's consider two other cases: Fire Emblem and Mother. In the former case, the game series hadn't even made it over to the states when Marth and Roy joined Melee. In fact, it's because of their presence in that game that the series was introduced into the west. And now look at Fire Emblem. 7 characters later...
As for Mother, Lucas is a character that has never even seen American soil. And how long ago was the game released? Yet he's in.
I understand not being localized and being banned are not the same thing, but the point I'm trying to make is that even though a character may not be very present in a country, like Japan or the US or wherever, doesn't mean that they
can't be in the game. The conversation on the playground would be the same in any part of the world. "Who is that Scorpion/Lucas guy?" "Oh. He's just some American/Japanese-only game character." Besides, laws and regulations can change. Look at gaming now. Some of the profanity and nudity in games now would never had flown in America 20 or even 15 years ago. What's to say Japan couldn't change their minds?
The fact that Sakurai is catering more to Japan because it's easier and, well, he lives there...that makes it harder. But if you want to make the ultimate crossover for real, and really fulfill Iwata's last request, then your going to have to make some non-Japanese friends.
It's funny that of the two, Tamagotchi is the one that has crossed over into Nintendo games.
Either would be nice in the sense that it would not weigh the pass down so heavily with human/very humanoid characters, since other than Banjo, Crash is the only other plausible exception that comes to mind. No idea how a Tamagotchi (presumably Mametchi?) would work, though.
I've realized this too. I look at the fighter pass and think, "OK...person, person, bear and bird, person..."
