Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[EricTheGamerman]

Despite the poll not really meaning much given its methodology, I still do think Sora makes a whole lot of sense as "the request" to make happen going into the next batch of DLC. Sora has always been heavily supported and beloved by quite a big section of the Smash community and is a huge character outside of it as well, and Kingdom Hearts still seems to be hot even if III wasn't everyone's cup of tea. It's the new "big and impossible request" that people constantly get heckled over for various reasons, but would absolutely bring down the house in terms of hype. And it's developed by a Japanese developer in tandem with a Western company that has very large ties to Japan.

I don't even have any attachment to Sora as a character myself (I bought The Story So Far on sale... I've yet to play it as I've been working through Persona games and getting distracted with far too many multiplayer releases lol), but goddamn it, I want this moment to happen for the community and see that absolutely massive crossover moment happen as much as I want to see someone like Chief come into Smash.

A perfect opportunity for something like that would be The Game Awards, just saying.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I mean, you're not calling him Hat Ken, but other people certainly are.

I think the important point people seem to be missing is that hype and popularity are relative. Just because Terry isn't super popular here doesn't mean he's not super popular at all. A lot of Smash fans need to realize there's a whole wide world out there and that other people like other characters. And that's not a bad thing.

But nope. Terry is Hat Ken I guess.

>I'm not going to discuss it
>"Too bad people want Sora and Lloyd though."

That seems like discussion to me?

Then... You agree with me.

One day I'm just going to create totally random poll "results", turn them into a credible looking image, and unleash it upon the world.

Pls make Isaac win thx

 

[NoOtherPersona]

One day I'm just going to create totally random poll "results", turn them into a credible looking image, and unleash it upon the world.

Smash doesn't need more madness its already crazy

 

[KatKit]

That doesn't make any sense as the character is officially retired in mainline Tekken games, and his voice actor has passed away. They didnt make new Snake codecs for this same exact reason

It's different; Kojima didn't want to recast Campbell out of respect. Conversely, Heihachi doesn't require new dialogue for Smash.

Even though he's probably done with mainline Tekken games, this isn't the end of a playable Heihachi. Everyone knows he'll be in the next Tag Tournament (they bring almost everyone back); so, why would Smash be any different?

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Then... You agree with me.

Pls make Isaac win thx

For the most part yeah. I just didn't agree with the whole "hypocrisy" part.

 

[GoodGrief741]

For the most part yeah. I just didn't agree with the whole "hypocrisy" part.

I mean, if Terry doesn't have to be super popular, why do other characters have to? There lies the hypocrisy.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I mean, if Terry doesn't have to be super popular, why do other characters have to? There lies the hypocrisy.

Except Terry is super popular. In South America and China, alongside decent popularity in America and Japan.

Most first party characters people talk about here are barely even popular in America and Japan, let alone other countries.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Link to this poll?

Also, I actually like Sora, minus the Disney ****, his stupid feet, and his creepy, cutesy face.

 

[N3ON]

Pls make Isaac win thx

But then again, if it was someone a bit more polarizing, the reaction would be that much more... explosive.

Smash doesn't need more madness its already crazy

 

[Cycrum]

Is there anyone who knows what methodology would we need to make a poll to gauge the popularity of Smash characters in a specific area or in multiple areas while still being statistically significant?

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Is there anyone who knows what methodology would we need to make a poll to gauge the popularity of Smash characters in a specific area or in multiple areas while still being statistically significant?

I don't necessarily know about statistically significant (it's been a while since I took stats, and I don't even believe the term applies here), but a large problem is that most Smash popularity polls are held within isolated communities consisting of core fans. They're good indicators of a character's popularity in the core fanbase, but a common problem is that fans generalize that to the wider fanbase when that isn't true. We have plenty of polls talking about different character's popularity on sites/communities like Twitter, Reddit, Smashboards, Youtube, 4chan, etc.

If by "statistically significant" you mean "indicative of the entire fanbase," a Smash fan poll would have to reach outside of the core fanbase, which is difficult, if not impossible.

Well, actually...

 

[cothero]

Ah yes, the main character of the series, who didn't debut until the third game.

There, you said it yourself. Let's use MK as exemple: Liu Kang was the main character of the first games and then Scorpion took it over as the protagonist in the last titles. Then, in that case, Scorpion would be the natural choice for a character in Smash. As you said, Jin debuted in the third game, being the protagonist of the series to this day. What matter here is the fact that Jin is the current protagonist of the series. If you think that any other Tekken character will make the cut regardless of his popularity, you're clearly suffering from the "Nakoruru fever".

 

[Curious Villager]

I find it sad nobody ever puts any Level 5 characters in their prediction when it's literally one of the last big japanese company that's pretty linked to Nintendo like Koei Tecmo not referenced in Smash lmao

Inb4 Level-5 becomes the next Atlus/SNK when it comes to Japanese third parties most people didn't see coming...

The DQ8 Hero is ironically a Level-5 rep.

DQ8 was made by Level-5.

I mean yeah I suppose, although Level-5 isn't credited anywhere within the game as far as I'm aware, neither did they really acknowledge his inclusion for whatever reason. It's kind of what Diddy Kong and King.K.Rool are to Rare, they created him, but Square has full ownership of Eight and his game to do with as they please.

If Level-5 does get a character (that they own) I really hope its Layton...

 

[GoodGrief741]

Except Terry is super popular. In South America and China, alongside decent popularity in America and Japan.

Most first party characters people talk about here are barely even popular in America and Japan, let alone other countries.

Well now that's just untrue.

 

[DevaAshera]

I really just don't understand, why Heavy is doing so well compared to Gordon Freeman. I mean, he's the most obvious Valve character to add. The Heavy is great don't get me wrong, TF2 is probably my favorite multiplayer game ever, but definitely no Heavy until Gordon is in.

You say that, but honestly Team Fortress 2 has been more successful for Valve and they've already used Heavy (along with Pyro and Spy) as the Valve reps for Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed.
While Half-Life put Valve on the map, its games since then, primarily TF2, Left 4 Dead, and Portal, have been more successful and popular.

Man, crazy how demand for Nintendo characters keeps being minuscule in comparison to all the third-party characters. Guess there's no point on thinking about purism after going through DLC like this season.

In other times, people would've laughed at the idea of Master Chief as a playable character, now it's a different ball game.

While I'll still wait before making any more judgement or predictions, I wouldn't be surprised if the next DLC characters after the pass are just third-party characters with high demand. It really feels like that's the path Smash will be taking from here on now.

I mean, there's kind of a reason for that..almost all of the big name, popular Nintendo 1st/2nd Party characters are already in the game, just leaving lesser known secondary characters or lesser known series (not a knock against any of them..just saying), its also due to there being so many popular series that people would love to see added to a game like Smash and usually the love for those series is larger than the love for Nintendo's lesser known properties/characters.
For example, I LOVE Nintendo and nearly all of their series..but my most wanted character for Super Smash Bros, ever since Mega Man was announced, has been Sora. Kingdom Hearts is one of my favorite series and I'd love to see it represented in Super Smash Bros. This doesn't mean I wouldn't love to see some Nintendo characters appear (just see my sig along with my desire to have StarFox's Krystal and WarioWare's Ashley playable), its just that overall, my biggest wants are 3rd Party since most of my favorites for Nintendo are already in (or have little chance, like Gardevoir or Princess Hilda).

Wrong, bro. Google "Tekken protagonist" and see for yourself.

"Jin Kazama (Japanese: 風間 仁 Hepburn: Kazama Jin) is a fictional character and main protagonist of the Tekken fighting gameseries released by Namco Bandai Games."

Thats primarily because Heihachi is the antagonist..he is still the face of the series though. I mean, Jin Kazama wasn't the original protagonist, he just became so when Kazuya Mishima became the villain since Kazuya was the original protagonist and Jin will likely be taking the role before long himself.
Heihachi, however, is often the one used for crossovers like PlayStation All-Stars and even Smash Bros. (via the only Tekken Mii Costume being Heihachi and Pac-Man's taunt using him).

That doesn't make any sense as the character is officially retired in mainline Tekken games, and his voice actor has passed away. They didnt make new Snake codecs for this same exact reason

That's incorrect, Heihachi was never retired as a character.
When his voice actor passed away after Tekken 6, rather then retiring him or recasting Heihachi as he was, they instead had him use a drug to de-age him so that a new voice actor could be used as 'Young Heihachi' for Tekken Tag Tournament 2, Project x Zone, and eventually becoming the voice for old Heihachi in Tekken 7..though he sadly passed away as well.
I have no doubt that Heihachi will be recast again as its already happened multiple time throughout the series.

Beyond that, it doesn't matter for Super Smash Bros. since archived voice samples from previous Tekken games could easily be used like has been done for a great many Super Smash Bros. characters, such as Sonic.

Link to this poll?

Also, I actually like Sora, minus the Disney ****, his stupid feet, and his creepy, cutesy face.

Thankfully Sora's current appearance in Kingdom Hearts III fixed his weird huge feet and the weird face.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dtg31LYV4AMdHnY?format=jpg&name=orig

 

[N3ON]

It's funny, I'm not really a Layton supporter, nor do I hate Jibanyan (hell, getting another not-so-human character would be nice)... tbh I'm not really invested in either, but getting the latter over the former somehow brings to mind feelings of this.

 

[Idon]

Oh come on people, there's a reason Heihachi's face is literally on the Tekken World Tour.

Heihachi may not be the protagonist, but he's by far the most marketed character.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Well now that's just untrue.

Because characters like Skull Kid and Mach Rider are so popular.

The only first parties remaining with solid popularity at this point are like:

• Waluigi
• Rex & Pyra
• Bandana Dee (or Magalor if you're Japanese)
• Dixie Kong
• Maybe Isaac? Don't hear much about him any more.

*This is discounting more recent first parties who have gained popularity like Byleth, Edelgard, and Akira.

And a major problem with these characters is that they're still not going to generate as much hype as most third party picks, nor will they really reach new fanbases. Terry is a smart pick to appeal to South America and China. Other third parties have similar power to attract different demographics while also generating similar, if not more hype than most first parties.

 

[cothero]

You say that, but honestly Team Fortress 2 has been more successful for Valve and they've already used Heavy (along with Pyro and Spy) as the Valve reps for Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed.
While Half-Life put Valve on the map, its games since then, primarily TF2, Left 4 Dead, and Portal, have been more successful and popular.

I mean, there's kind of a reason for that..almost all of the big name, popular Nintendo 1st/2nd Party characters are already in the game, just leaving lesser known secondary characters or lesser known series (not a knock against any of them..just saying), its also due to there being so many popular series that people would love to see added to a game like Smash and usually the love for those series is larger than the love for Nintendo's lesser known properties/characters.
For example, I LOVE Nintendo and nearly all of their series..but my most wanted character for Super Smash Bros, ever since Mega Man was announced, has been Sora. Kingdom Hearts is one of my favorite series and I'd love to see it represented in Super Smash Bros. This doesn't mean I wouldn't love to see some Nintendo characters appear (just see my sig along with my desire to have StarFox's Krystal and WarioWare's Ashley playable), its just that overall, my biggest wants are 3rd Party since most of my favorites for Nintendo are already in (or have little chance, like Gardevoir or Princess Hilda).

Thats primarily because Heihachi is the antagonist..he is still the face of the series though. I mean, Jin Kazama wasn't the original protagonist, he just became so when Kazuya Mishima became the villain since Kazuya was the original protagonist and Jin will likely be taking the role before long himself.
Heihachi, however, is often the one used for crossovers like PlayStation All-Stars and even Smash Bros. (via the only Tekken Mii Costume being Heihachi and Pac-Man's taunt using him).

That's incorrect, Heihachi was never retired as a character.
When his voice actor passed away after Tekken 6, rather then retiring him or recasting Heihachi as he was, they instead had him use a drug to de-age him so that a new voice actor could be used as 'Young Heihachi' for Tekken Tag Tournament 2, Project x Zone, and eventually becoming the voice for old Heihachi in Tekken 7..though he sadly passed away as well.
I have no doubt that Heihachi will be recast again as its already happened multiple time throughout the series.

Beyond that, it doesn't matter for Super Smash Bros. since archived voice samples from previous Tekken games could easily be used like has been done for a great many Super Smash Bros. characters, such as Sonic.

Thankfully Sora's current appearance in Kingdom Hearts III fixed his weird huge feet and the weird face.

Now that you mentioned Valve, Gordon Freeman is a extremely unlikely character i always wanted in Smash, but have ultimately fallen into irrelevance due to his 12 years absence. Well, he's kinda absent, if we consider that Final Fantasy XV skin something relevant enough.

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

There, you said it yourself. Let's use MK as exemple: Liu Kang was the main character of the first games and then Scorpion took it over as the main protagonist in the last titles. Then, in that case, Scorpion would be the natural choice for a character in Smash. As you said, Jin debuted in the third game, being the protagonist of the series to this day. What matter here is the fact that Jin is the currently protagonist of the series. If you think that any other Tekken character will make the cut regardless of his popularity, you're clearly suffering from the "Nakoruru fever".

I don’t want to disputes you over Tekken or KoF lore since I know very little about those series, but your Mortal Kombat analogy is a bit off.

Scorpion is definitely the posterboy for MK, but he has never been the protagonist. in MK11 the protagonist is still Liu Kang, in MKX it was Cassie, in MK9 it was Raiden. Scorpion is an important side character and definitely the most popular, but the story does not revolve around him.

 

[CroonerMike]

Because characters like Skull Kid and Mach Rider are so popular.

The only first parties remaining with solid popularity at this point are like:

• Waluigi
• Rex & Pyra
• Bandana Dee (or Magalor if you're Japanese)
• Dixie Kong
• Maybe Isaac? Don't hear much about him any more.

*This is discounting more recent first parties who have gained popularity like Byleth, Edelgard, and Akira.

And a major problem with these characters is that they're still not going to generate as much hype as most third party picks, nor will they really reach new fanbases. Terry is a smart pick to appeal to South America and China. Other third parties have similar power to attract different demographics while also generating similar, if not more hype than most first parties.

The only one I can see generating massive hype would be Waluigi, mostly because people treat him like a meme and the fact he is an assist trophy. Otherwise, I think the next DLC will be Third parties or something.

 

[Flik]

Heihachi, however, is often the one used for crossovers

Considering that they are using Jin and Kazuya more now (see Project X Zone and that KOF game), I hope that means more of them in the future. They are the ones who will carry Tekken's story after all.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I don't own Ultimate and won't buy it unless a character I really like gets added (or there's a good PM style mod for it), such as Skull Kid.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

I don't own Ultimate and won't buy it unless a character I really like gets added (or there's a good PM style mod for it), such as Skull Kid.

I don't know why, but I feel like this post is mocking me.

Either way, that's your opinion and I respect that.

:D

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

I don't know why, but I feel like this post is mocking me.

Either way, that's your opinion and I respect that.

:D

Nintendo makes more money from me (and presumably some other people) with certain first party characters. If the argument is valid that a character like Terry can bring in new consumers, so is the argument that a first party character can (even if not as many).

 

[Deathcarter]

Except Terry is super popular. In South America and China, alongside decent popularity in America and Japan.

Most first party characters people talk about here are barely even popular in America and Japan, let alone other countries.

In all honesty, those are such small markets for consoles in the grand scheme of things that I don't think its unfair to question the potential Terry or any other SNK has to make more money than like half of the common suggestions for 3rd parties who have much more substantial popularity in Nintendo's primary markets. Terry's important because of what he bring to Smash in terms of legacy that a lot of bigger characters like Crash, Sora, Steve, Dante, Monster Hunter, Jill/Chris/Leon, Waluigi, let alone more niche favorites like Sans, Joker, and Banjo don't have but frankly he's not a guy who I feel is a substantial difference maker the way Snake/Sonic/Megaman/Ryu/Cloud/Hero were if you get what I'm saying.

 

[Impa4Smash]

How is it even a question whether 3rd Parties generate more hype than 1st Party characters? Of course they do. Unless the 1st Party character in question is Ridley or K Rool.

 

[Onua]

https://twitter.com/New_WabiSabi/status/1170917671602229248

thoughts?

 

[CroonerMike]

https://twitter.com/New_WabiSabi/status/1170917671602229248

thoughts?

It was just a joke to get him to say joe mama

 

[TCT~Phantom]

How is it even a question whether 3rd Parties generate more hype than 1st Party characters? Of course they do. Unless the 1st Party character in question is Ridley.

The problem is who are Big first parties you could add that would generate hype?

Smash is at the point where it’s duh a big crossover that any big third party joining will make more noise than any first party that isn’t either as demanded as Ridley or Waluigi now (Mark my words Waluigi will be more than a meme next speculation season if he doesn’t get in now) or as out there as Plant.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Hype itself doesn't matter. Sales matter. Hype only matters insofar as it translates to sales.

 

[Impa4Smash]

Hype itself doesn't matter. Sales matter. Hype only matters insofar as it translates to sales.

If there’s a lot of hype why wouldn’t it transfer to sales? What character would create a lot of hype then not sell well?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Because characters like Skull Kid and Mach Rider are so popular.

The only first parties remaining with solid popularity at this point are like:

• Waluigi
• Rex & Pyra
• Bandana Dee (or Magalor if you're Japanese)
• Dixie Kong
• Maybe Isaac? Don't hear much about him any more.

*This is discounting more recent first parties who have gained popularity like Byleth, Edelgard, and Akira.

And a major problem with these characters is that they're still not going to generate as much hype as most third party picks, nor will they really reach new fanbases. Terry is a smart pick to appeal to South America and China. Other third parties have similar power to attract different demographics while also generating similar, if not more hype than most first parties.

I mean... Majora's Mask sold over 5 million copies alone and is considered a masterpiece, and Mach Rider is a ****ing black box NES game, are you somehow suggesting these characters are not popular?

You can say all you want that first parties won't generate as much hype as third parties, but again, I'm not seeing a lot of hype around Terry. You can cite fanbases for him, and I can say that many first party characters also have huge fanbases.

Then again apparently you don't think Skull Kid of all people isn't a popular character so maybe I shouldn't bother.

How is it even a question whether 3rd Parties generate more hype than 1st Party characters? Of course they do. Unless the 1st Party character in question is Ridley or K Rool.

So, third parties generate more hype than first parties, unless those first parties generate more hype than third parties.

Got it.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Hype itself doesn't matter. Sales matter. Hype only matters insofar as it translates to sales.

Hype leads to sales. Publicity leads to sales. I know you didn’t buy the game since there wasn’t a newcomer you liked, but you are the minority. Everyone on this website is in the minority when it comes to smash and it’s fandom.

Generating hype leads to easy marketing. Every streamer or YouTuber reacting like their house is burning down over Banjo getting in acts as free advertising. Sales will naturally come, if only 1 million of the 15 million copies sold for ultimate got the dlc for Terry, that’s still 6 million dollars, or 25 million if they got the pass.

 

[Impa4Smash]

So, third parties generate more hype than first parties, unless those first parties generate more hype than third parties.

Got it.

Well, yes actually. Ridley and K Rool were juggernauts. But most the time, third party characters - popular third party characters like most of the ones we get in Smash - will just generate more buzz because it’s a crossover. And crossovers create buzz.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I mean... Majora's Mask sold over 5 million copies alone and is considered a masterpiece, and Mach Rider is a ****ing black box NES game, are you somehow suggesting these characters are not popular?

You can say all you want that first parties won't generate as much hype as third parties, but again, I'm not seeing a lot of hype around Terry. You can cite fanbases for him, and I can say that many first party characters also have huge fanbases.

Then again apparently you don't think Skull Kid of all people isn't a popular character so maybe I shouldn't bother.

So, third parties generate more hype than first parties, unless those first parties generate more hype than third parties.

Got it.

I think saying Mach Rider is a super popular first party on par with the others is pushing it. A great retro choice (my preferred one) but not popular.

Heck tbh I don’t think any first party would generate that much hype on par with a relatively known third party except for Waluigi tbh.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

If there’s a lot of hype why wouldn’t it transfer to sales? What character would create a lot of hype then not sell well?

It's an important distinction. A character extremely popular with a demographic that is unlikely to buy the game is one example. Tracer might fit that criteria. Probably more hype than Terry, but are OW players who don't own a Switch (which is presumably a lot of them) going to buy a Switch and Smash if she gets added?

 

[EricTheGamerman]

Nintendo makes more money from me (and presumably some other people) with certain first party characters. If the argument is valid that a character like Terry can bring in new consumers, so is the argument that a first party character can (even if not as many).

The number of Nintendo fans who haven't bought Ultimate already are a minority that isn't worth chasing to be completely honest from a company standpoint. They've covered nearly ever base imaginable with Ultimate already, and gone out of their way to include a number of characters to specifically to appeal to the "core" base like Ridley, King K. Rool, and even Banjo & Kazooie. There are very few people not sold on the game at this point from the Nintendo faithful (which is reflected in the sales of between 1/3 and 1/2 of all Switch owners now owning Ultimate) and you're investing tons of resources to basically convince a handful of holdouts to invest in Smash, many of which likely own a Switch and other games already. The first party options don't generate crazy headlines or get the gaming community at large talking in the same way either.

Third parties come with inherent tons of free advertising built-in, appeal to a high number of the Smash crowd in many instances (and many of them will just accept them even if they're not on board at first), and have a greater potential to attract brand new fans to potentially buy a Switch. The "whales" that Nintendo looks to hook with third party options are those who don't own a Switch or a Nintendo console, and getting them interested potentially means sales of the console, Smash, the DLC, and potentially converts them into a new Nintendo fan and customer that will support them for years to come as they discover Nintendo IPs through Smash. The overwhelming majority of Bandanna Dee fans probably already own a Switch, probably already own games on it like Kirby Star Allies, and probably most of them have invested in Smash already.

DLC sales of individual characters is OK and can be profitable, bringing in new customers or people to Smash and Nintendo as a whole is a hell of a lot more profitable and also comes with the added bonus of a huge amount of free advertising and discussion of the game while defining it as the premier crossover in gaming. It's not that the benefits of a first party DLC character are non-existent, it's that they just pale in comparison to third party choices at this point, which becomes especially relevant because most Smash fans who are interested in DLC at all to begin with just keep buying the DLC even if they're not the most explicit fans of all the options.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well, yes actually. Ridley and K Rool were juggernauts. But most the time, third party characters - popular third party characters like most of the ones we get in Smash - will just generate more buzz because it’s a crossover. And crossovers create buzz.

Every character getting in Smash is a crossover. There was buzz over literally every addition to Ultimate.

Plus it's not like we're running short on juggernauts.

I think saying Mach Rider is a super popular first party on par with the others is pushing it. A great retro choice (my preferred one) but not popular.

Heck tbh I don’t think any first party would generate that much hype on par with a relatively known third party except for Waluigi tbh.

I disagree. If you look back at the reveals in Ultimate that got the most hype (thus the most press, thus the most sales) they were Ridley, K. Rool, Banjo, and Joker. Aside from Joker there's kind of a pattern there.

 

[Idon]

It's an important distinction. A character extremely popular with a demographic that is unlikely to buy the game is one example. Tracer might fit that criteria. Probably more hype than Terry, but are OW players who don't own a Switch (which is presumably a lot of them) going to buy a Switch and Smash if she gets added?

No, but neither would Persona 5 fans, Dragon Quest fans, Banjo-Kazooie fans, or King of Fighters fans.

Nobody buys a switch for DLC, they buy it for everything else. The DLC is meant to sell only one thing and that is itself.