Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Deleted member]

Nintendo flat-out told us not to expect anything new in order to prevent people overhyping themselves. There's no hidden meaning. If they wanted to build anticipation for a reveal, all they had to do was say nothing, because everyone already assumed that there'd be a reveal alongside Terry's launch.

I really hate how right this is.

Oh well, I am interested in how Terry fights and what he'll bring.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Hmmmm....

Leaks lmao pic.twitter.com/5qEAaQ4QR1

— Girulo (@Girulo3D) November 5, 2019

Yeah I don't believe this one bit. I'm waiting for Terry to come out and even then, we'll probably still have to wait for the next fighter to come out before we have our conclusion. Who knew that debunks could lie for attention?

 

[Mango The Magician]

Not the same model.

View attachment 245212

Horns are in the wrong spot and are larger.
Eye is considerably larger.
Missing the black area.
More teeth on the bottom it seems (could be the blurry pic).
Texturing looks different, looks a lot smoother.
Smile is wider on the Smash picture.

Funny how he took a pic of his monitor, probably more things wrong with it.

A lot of those points feel like they could be summed up by the fact that both pictures are at opposing angles to one another. Like the horns would appear smaller if the hat is facing up obscuring most of them. The only real discrepancy is the size of the miis face, but the fact alone that someone was able to recreate the model or even potentially has the model is pretty damning.

 

[TheCJBrine]

A lot of those points feel like they could be summed up by the fact that both pictures are at opposing angles to one another. Like the horns would appear smaller if the hat is facing up obscuring most of them. The only real discrepancy is the size of the miis face, but the fact alone that someone was able to recreate the model or even potentially has the model is pretty damning.

It’s possible to recreate models, but we need to see new footage of the same ones in Smash to determine if it’s fake. Especially of the Mallow hat, or a modder needs to recreate it similarly without missing polygon and positioning issues and while making the hat have a bit of physics.

This model is definitely not the same; while the angles are different, the mii itself is pretty much the same, and some details of the hat are different: the eye is definitely bigger, there seems to be a smaller gap between the horns, and it’s missing the big black gaps on the sides of the mii head. Other details are a bit different, too, and the twitter user put his model in Fortnite.

edit: the texture also seems more-simplistic than the one in the leak, and it's apparently missing two bigger teeth on the lower jaw, as well as a horn or something on the bottom-left side.

 

[Mango The Magician]

It’s possible to recreate models, but we need to see new footage of the same ones in Smash to determine if it’s fake. Especially of the Mallow hat, or a modder needs to recreate it similarly without missing polygon and positioning issues and while making the hat have a bit of physics.

This model is definitely not the same; while the angles are different, the mii itself is pretty much the same, and some details of the hat are different: the eye is definitely bigger, there seems to be a smaller gap between the horns, and it’s missing the big black gaps on the sides of the mii head. Other details are a bit different, too, and the twitter user put his model in Fortnite.

The model looks identical to me. I don't see why or how people think the eye is bigger, they look the same size to me. The only issue I see is the lack of the black gap but that's likely due to the fact that it's not scaled the same as in the mii video, as it's smaller on the mii here than in the video, otherwise it looks spot on.

Also I don't believe the mallow hat actually jiggles. Having seen the video and clip where it jiggles, it appears to move too radically to just be jiggling, so my current thought process was that whoever made it didn't make sure it worked for every single animation frame and the frame where it moves is the hat being askew like the ones people have made and then returning to it's resting position.

That said I could be wrong, but the fact alone that someone was able to create the model says a lot, and since people have already ported different models, what's to have stopped this individual from porting their model for the doom demon over the already somewhat similar chainchomp hat? Basically it could still be real but just about everything that people have said "couldn't be replicated" has been replicated.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net...823527645937675/641052787207045121/image0.png

proof of it being real...?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Argh which is it!? Is it real or is it fake! Decide already! Argh!!!! >_<

 

[Evil Trapezium]

https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net...823527645937675/641052787207045121/image0.png

proof of it being real...?

Photoshopped Little Mac 2.0

 

[TheCJBrine]

The model looks identical to me. I don't see why or how people think the eye is bigger, they look the same size to me. The only issue I see is the lack of the black gap but that's likely due to the fact that it's not scaled the same as in the mii video, as it's smaller on the mii here than in the video, otherwise it looks spot on.

Also I don't believe the mallow hat actually jiggles. Having seen the video and clip where it jiggles, it appears to move too radically to just be jiggling, so my current thought process was that whoever made it didn't make sure it worked for every single animation frame and the frame where it moves is the hat being askew like the ones people have made and then returning to it's resting position.

That said I could be wrong, but the fact alone that someone was able to create the model says a lot, and since people have already ported different models, what's to have stopped this individual from porting their model for the doom demon over the already somewhat similar chainchomp hat? Basically it could still be real but just about everything that people have said "couldn't be replicated" has been replicated.

To me they don’t look the same at all save for it being the same demon. And not because of the scale; the scale isn’t why things are different.

Here’s another comparison:

What a pity, you were so close, but you blew it when you forgot something so simple pic.twitter.com/f3e5jO1vUs

— MKiAM - Mitch (@MitchTwitrKD) November 5, 2019

The eye is a bit different and takes up more space in the recreation; the lip isn’t as big because of it. It has other differences than just that, too, as I’ve mentioned already.

The Mallow hat is animated a bit; it deforms a bit, leaning/stretching sideways instead of what it would do without physics: follow the head perfectly, because it would be completely solid. I doubt it’s animated over the footage because it’s clearly ingame. It’s not like the messed up ones people have made: those act just like normal hats, staying solid in their position relative to the head and don’t snap back to the top. That isn’t what was going on in those modders’ pictures, those were bugged out hats.

 

[Deleted member]

https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net...823527645937675/641052787207045121/image0.png

proof of it being real...?

Wouldn't say that solidifies anything. I guess it means modders can't just import a static mii face and make that a hat.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Basically it could still be real but just about everything that people have said "couldn't be replicated" has been replicated.

Except for the biggest obstacle, which is actually making it work in the Ultimate Mii models in-game. Not Wii U, not a separate render, the Ultimate in-game Miis.

Until someone does that, we're pretty much going in circles as far as how "possible to fake" it goes.

 

[BZL8]

My head is getting rocked back-and-forth by these Mii costumes.

 

[Gentlepanda]

https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net...823527645937675/641052787207045121/image0.png

proof of it being real...?

iirc alterations to the head don't necessarily remove existing facial animations unless you've really ****ed it up somewhere in the process

e.g. you could add a white cube mesh to mario's head but it wouldn't stop him from emoting

 

[TheCJBrine]

iirc alterations to the head don't necessarily remove existing facial animations unless you've really ****ed it up somewhere in the process

e.g. you could add a white cube mesh to mario's head but it wouldn't stop him from emoting

Apparently helmets unload the head completely, though, so it has to be a hat.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

man I just dunno what to believe anymore

I think I’m now on #TeamWho****ingCaresJustRevealTheTruthAndGetItOverWith

 

[osby]

Everyone is trying to figure out whether these confirm Geno and Doomguy or not and I'm here like... I want that Mallow hat...

 

[Deleted member]

white cube

Oh no. Panda stop

man I just dunno what to believe anymore

I think I’m now on #TeamWho****ingCaresJustRevealTheTruthAndGetItOverWith

I'm on #TeamPleaseBeRealAndGiveMeGeno

 

[SneakyLink]

Everyone is trying to figure out whether these confirm Geno and Doomguy or not and I'm here like... I want that Mallow hat...

I would like that Cacodemon hat.
Combine with say... the Maid outfit and you’ve got free Nightmare fuel!

 

[Mango The Magician]

To me they don’t look the same at all save for it being the same demon. And not because of the scale; the scale isn’t why things are different.

Here’s another comparison:

What a pity, you were so close, but you blew it when you forgot something so simple pic.twitter.com/f3e5jO1vUs

— MKiAM - Mitch (@MitchTwitrKD) November 5, 2019

The eye is a bit different and takes up more space in the recreation; the lip isn’t as big because of it. It has other differences than just that, too, as I’ve mentioned already.

The Mallow hat is animated a bit; it deforms a bit, leaning/stretching sideways instead of what it would do without physics: follow the head perfectly, because it would be completely solid. I doubt it’s animated over the footage because it’s clearly ingame. It’s not like the messed up ones people have made: those act just like normal hats, staying solid in their position relative to the head and don’t snap back to the top. That isn’t what was going on in those pictures, those were bugged out hats.

I dunno, they look the same size to me. The eye looks bigger sure but that's just perspective, like yeah the lip is further from the camera and facing downwards so you'd see less of it while the eye is the opposite. That said I don't think this Twitter user made the leak, but pointing out discrepancies is the model he made doesn't discredit what he's trying to prove, in that "hey you can easily make said model."

Also I'm not saying it's animated over it, I'm talking about the animation of the in-game characters. I'm not 100% on the terminology but there's a thing called weight painting that ensures that models that aren't all one piece will stay stuck together during every animation. When rigging a model you need to do this for every animation otherwise pieces of said model will appear to move when they shouldn't. I don't know if this is applicable to Smash Ultimate or if this is what the leaker, assuming it's fake, did, but using the tiny bit of knowledge I have about modeling and rigging I could see that explaining the "jiggle." That said I could be wrong.

Except for the biggest obstacle, which is actually making it work in the Ultimate Mii models in-game. Not Wii U, not a separate render, the Ultimate in-game Miis.

Until someone does that, we're pretty much going in circles as far as how "possible to fake" it goes.

Plenty of people have ported hats to the game, including both helmets and regular hats. I mean yeah there's missing polygons and the hat is slightly off, but you can't argue the hats are 100% where they should be in the video because it too is blurry and shot off screen.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

so... maybe this is why Terry’s presentation will take 45 minutes despite no new playable reveals (taking into account new Mii costumes and other features of course):

Looks like the fighting stick that was in Terry's Presentation thumbnail has a version coming to the Switch. Probably another reason why the direct is long, they likely will touch upon the controller. Pics from pinned messages in PG's Discord

Spoiler: Pics

View attachment 245229View attachment 245230View attachment 245231

 

[NotLiquid]

https://images-ext-2.discordapp.net...823527645937675/641052787207045121/image0.png

proof of it being real...?

Not really, it just means if it was faked, the person most likely just did it via costume parts as is the popular assumption, rather than modding the main model.

Anyway, there's even a tweet PushDustin signal boosted about how hat modding is managed separately from the main model itself, which would be why certain hats like Labo can have so much detail. At the very least it suggests hat modding ought to be done pretty painlessly.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I dunno, they look the same size to me. The eye looks bigger sure but that's just perspective, like yeah the lip is further from the camera and facing downwards so you'd see less of it while the eye is the opposite. That said I don't think this Twitter user made the leak, but pointing out discrepancies is the model he made doesn't discredit what he's trying to prove, in that "hey you can easily make said model."

Also I'm not saying it's animated over it, I'm talking about the animation of the in-game characters. I'm not 100% on the terminology but there's a thing called weight painting that ensures that models that aren't all one piece will stay stuck together during every animation. When rigging a model you need to do this for every animation otherwise pieces of said model will appear to move when they shouldn't. I don't know if this is applicable to Smash Ultimate or if this is what the leaker, assuming it's fake, did, but using the tiny bit of knowledge I have about modeling and rigging I could see that explaining the "jiggle." That said I could be wrong.

The way models are imported, they would always do what you described: stay stuck to the head.

Mallow moves because of bones with physics applied to them. The modders’ hats don’t move, they’re not on the head itself because they’re bugged out. They’re still stuck in the same relative position to the head and don’t have physics like the Mallow hat.

We know people can recreate models. That’s not the argument people are making for it possibly being real. And perspective doesn’t change detail that much, it’s pretty easy to tell what’s different even at a different angle (especially this angle which isn’t too far from the original’s angle), so I don’t know how to explain this part anymore.

 

[Deleted member]

Anyway, there's even a tweet PushDustin signal boosted about how hat modding is managed separately from the main model itself, which would be why certain hats like Labo can have so much detail. At the very least it suggests hat modding ought to be done pretty painlessly.

Huh. Neat info.

 

[SilentSentinel]

Nanobuds denies making the miis

Saw someone on resetera say that Nanobuds made it, that does not seem to be the case unless they're lying.

 

[Deleted member]

Nanobuds denies making the miis

Saw someone on resetera say that Nanobuds made it, that does not seem to be the case unless they're lying.

Don't know why people are accusing random 3d modelers now. Doesn't seem like the way, chief.

 

[Nekoo]

I expect something worth my time instead of empty promises and "i don't know, y'all." If Sabi wants to be someone worth following, she needs to actually give us answers or else just say nothing at all.

That kind of mentality is what made the Grinch times toxic:

Be leaker and don't say anything because you don't have anything right now
People "Uuuurgh- Why do these leakers don't say anything! They're useless!"
Be leaker and say that you're looking into it
People: "Uuuurgh, why do they take so much time!"
Be leaker and honest and say that your source would be surprised if it's real, but will take it's own personal time to double check if it's real or not, knowing that it could cost their jobs, but sadly, you have a life, work, and gotta wait for an answers
People: "UUUUUGH why do they give empty promises?!!!!! GIVE ME ANSWERS! MY LEAKS!"


Spoiler...Get ready.

Spoiler: Open it

Spoiler: No seriously, do it

Spoiler: Last time

You're not entitled of anything, and no one should expect to be "worth your time". Vergeben, Sabi, or anyone don't have to say anything, but they take their time to bust out fake leak, because smash fans can be pretty much stupid, but sadly, smash fans are also awfully toxics.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I thought it was pretty clear the hats aren’t part of the heads themselves, just that they’re positioned to be attached to the head when loaded in. Helmets/masks still cause the head to unload completely from what I remember being said.

Really, though: each hat has its own head? Doesn’t make sense to me. The point was that whenever they try to replace a hat, which is how the mods work, it gets screwed up. If a modder can do it without the hat being bugged, then okay.

 

[Deleted member]

so... maybe this is why Terry’s presentation will take 45 minutes despite no new playable reveals (taking into account new Mii costumes and other features of course):

That's by Hori. In other words, it's a Third-Party controller made by people who aren't Nintendo, so why would they promote it if they've never done that with third-party controllers before?

 

[Deleted member]

That kind of mentality is what made the Grinch times toxic:

Be leaker and don't say anything because you don't have anything right now
People "Uuuurgh- Why do these leakers don't say anything! They're useless!"
Be leaker and say that you're looking into it
People: "Uuuurgh, why do they take so much time!"
Be leaker and honest and say that your source would be surprised if it's real, but will take it's own personal time to double check if it's real or not, knowing that it could cost their jobs, but sadly, you have a life, work, and gotta wait for an answers
People: "UUUUUGH why do they give empty promises?!!!!! GIVE ME ANSWERS! MY LEAKS!"


Spoiler...Get ready.

Spoiler: Open it

Spoiler: No seriously, do it

Spoiler: Last time

You're not entitled of anything, and no one should expect to be "worth your time". Vergeben, Sabi, or anyone don't have to say anything, but they take their time to bust out fake leak, because smash fans can be pretty much stupid, but sadly, smash fans are also awfully toxics.

Pardon me since apparently Sabi is the victim of her own work, what fighter has she ever predicted without relying on Vergeben? I'm trying to figure out if she's actually worth talking about on here.

 

[Nekoo]

Pardon me since apparently Sabi is the victim of her own work, what fighter has she ever predicted without relying on Vergeben? I'm trying to figure out if she's actually worth talking about on here.

Loz18 being an awful liar when back then, lots of people were believing him about skull kids and Isaac.
The grinch leak being fake.
Confirmed the Square-Enix character being real when only Vergeben was talking about it (Hero)
Banjo's "easy" picture hint with a bird and a bear before Shinobi said anything.


Also, it's not "relying", once again it's not how leaking work. If two people say the same things, of course, it COULD be piggybacking, however, most of the time, it's both of them confirming each other's thoughts-

During the grinch leak, all insiders said "IT'S FAKE", even BEFORE vergeben said anything, does it mean they were piggybacking each others?
No.
It's not how it works.

 

[SneakyLink]

Pardon me since apparently Sabi is the victim of her own work, what fighter has she ever predicted without relying on Vergeben? I'm trying to figure out if she's actually worth talking about on here.

Funny you mention Vergeben, he has been recently talking. Here’s everything he said 9 hours ago:
-Fighter 5 is not Scorpion
-Verge has no issues with Sabi
-Verge does not have specifics on Terry’s moveset but thinks it would be neat if there was a “Striker” mechanic?
-Finally he basically insulted someone over him being called out

So basically nothing

 

[Nekoo]

-Finally he basically insulted someone over him being called out

I know it's not nicely seen at time , but I always love Vergeben's backbones

 

[Deleted member]

1. Loz18 being an awful liar when back then, lots of people were believing him about skull kids and Isaac.
2. The grinch leak being fake.
3. Confirmed the Square-Enix character being real when only Vergeben was talking about it (Hero)
4. Banjo's "easy" picture hint with a bird and a bear before Shinobi said anything.

1. Doesn't answer my question
2. You admit the Grinch leak being fake was a multi-leaker thing so that doesn't answer my question
3. You admit that Vergeben was the only one saying this before Sabi so that doesn't answer my question


4. This is probably the only point that actually answers my question, and it's the only time she might have gotten something on her own. However, that's ignoring:

• The potentially fake cease and desist before Nintendo's E3 that only people close to her can officially verify
• Lying about talking to Vergeben when it came to Terry
• And backing the Fortnite Jonesy leak only to immediately backtrack

And yes, I will listen to the first person who made the claim more than the people who follow after. Call it a habit after seeing so many fake leakers.

In conclusion, yeah I'm pretty cynical and pessimistic about Sabi when only one character that was already heavily speculated was the one thing she actually predicted.

 

[Untouch]

Don't want to put words in anyone's mouth, but Verge saying that he's only saying what character isn't in, and isn't really talking about the Mii costume leak, he did say Scorpion isn't in though.
Of course he may not have seen the leak (somehow), but its interesting to think about. (He was even asked about it in the thread but didn't reply).

 

[3BitSaurus]

Plenty of people have ported hats to the game, including both helmets and regular hats. I mean yeah there's missing polygons and the hat is slightly off, but you can't argue the hats are 100% where they should be in the video because it too is blurry and shot off screen.

If there are any problems with that model in the footage, though, it's not anything like, you know, the gaping hole that appeared in the Mii's head when someone tried it yesterday.

The modeling of the hats themselves could be done by anyone with too much free time and know-how, sure. That's not the problem here. But then if "plenty of people" have done it in the same level of polish as that leak, why is it that all "debunks" so far were done outside of Ultimate? What's being called into question isn't a random person's ability to model the hats, but rather to make them work in-game the same way as the original video.

Once that happens, then we'll have a good reason to believe it's fake, but until then...

 

[Nekoo]

1. Doesn't answer my question
2. You admit the Grinch leak being fake was a multi-leaker thing so that doesn't answer my question
3. You admit that Vergeben was the only one saying this before Sabi so that doesn't answer my question

You're doing it on purpose right?

Also, it's not "relying", once again it's not how leaking work. If two people say the same things, of course, it COULD be piggybacking, however, most of the time, it's both of them confirming each other's thoughts-

During the grinch leak, all insiders said "IT'S FAKE", even BEFORE vergeben said anything, does it mean they were piggybacking each others?
No.
It's not how it works.

At this point, I'll just stop answering, because you clearly just have an issue and hateboner for them, and don't understand how leaking work.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Like why would you promise "I can confirm if this leak is real by tomorrow!" And then respond hours later with "N/A"?

Now we know she can't even promise basic yes or no answers at least.

And yet, people will continue to listen. Which is why they do it.

And this is how you can see that no one here know how """leaks""" work.

I know how leaks work.

1. Make up some **** to get attention.
2. Repeat 1.

 

[Plank08]

There’s no way sora and crash would just be Mii costumes, they are way too iconic and it would be too much work for that

 

[Deleted member]

At this point, I'll just stop answering, because you clearly just have an issue and hateboner for them, and don't understand how leaking work.

I, and many others, only follow the leak scene for one thing, and that's for them to predict fighters correctly. Vergeben's the only one doing this consistently. If Sabi isn't doing it, given the examples you told me, then I'm not listening. It's just filler drama to pass the time from where I stand, and that's a waste of time for everybody. Results speak. Not your progress in piecing together a puzzle.

 

[dezeray112]

So I hear that Terry's presentation is due for tomorrow and I believe it is 45 mins long?

It will be interesting to see what they will show during the presentation despite no news on the fifth fighter.