Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[ToddCam]

So what is the argument that that video is not a fake? That you can't mod Mii costumes? Can't you just mod whole Miis with a different head?

 

[MooMew64]

Look I don't think you understand my argument.

Panda argued that it is baffling in-lore for Geno to fight his Geno spirit.

Me posting all of the different variations of Mario, Link, and K. Rool is to serve as evidence that World of Light doesn't give a **** about its own ruleset.

1. Mario is fighting other Marios
   1. Equally, Mario and Dr. Mario are canonically different characters.
2. You fight Kirby vessels in World of Light, which should be theoretically impossible.

Like are you seriously arguing they can't just use Geno but as a different pose, similar to how Wii Fit Trainer's spirits are just her in different poses?

Never said they couldn't, just playing devil's advocate for the idea spirits could be deconfirms. I personally don't completely buy it myself, but hey, it's possible. By the same logic you're using, ATs could also make playable promotions, but we as a community decided that "No, they can't" for the same reasons we came to the conclusion spirits are a hard no as well.

Guess what I'm trying to say is this: Smash speculation ultimately (heh) is nothing more than us making up fan made rules that get broken all the time and then we pretend we never thought they were rules in the first place. It's a good idea to keep that in mind no matter what side you stand on when it commes to what can and can't get in.

 

[Herocin]

the weirdness of someone unlocking geno in WOL then fighting geno's spirit (most likely with the exact same art as the fighter spirit because he doesn't have another render) is why i'm skeptical of spirit upgrades full stop

Actually Wii Fit Trainer uses her Smash 4 render while Cloud and Robin (IIRC) use their ultimate render so Geno could maybe use his Ultimate render

 

[JustMyself13]

So what is the argument that that video is not a fake? That you can't mod Mii costumes? Can't you just mod whole Miis with a different head?

That would still require the model to have the same filesize as the original without the headgear though, which doesn’t really seem possible.

 

[Garteam]

I'm going with Occam's Razor on this one. It does seem genuinely more likely that someone on the inside leaked some footage than someone who is leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the Ultimate modding community making two costumes for a fake leak.

That being said, I could be wrong, but I honestly think it's more likely to be true than false.

 

[Deleted member]

Never said they couldn't, just playing devil's advocate for the idea spirits could be deconfirms. I personally don't completely buy it myself, but hey, it's possible. By the same logic your using, ATs could also make playable promotions, but we as a community decided that "No, they can't" for the same reasons we came to the conclusion spirits are a hard no as well.

Guess what I'm trying to say is this: Smash speculation ultimately (heh) is nothing more than us making up fan made rules that get broken all the time and then we pretend we never thought they were rules in the first place. It's a good idea to keep that in mind no matter what side you stand on when it commes to what can and can't get in.

You're new here so let me explain, this is not the first time any of us had this conversation. To touch upon your AT point, spirits are comparable to trophies in previous Smash games. In design and purpose, they are fun collectibles. Mewtwo and Lucas had trophies in Smash 4 before DLC was decided for that game. Ergo, characters that are spirits have a non-zero percent possibility of making it into Ultimate during the second wave, which was decided post-launch.

By now, it's a moot point that "it can happen if Sakurai wants to do it." Whether it actually happens is yet to be confirmed.

 

[Door Key Pig]

Maybe there's a entire model swap for a Mii character to just be "Mii character but with a new hat" like model swaps for making King K. Rool Peter Griffin and all that??

Actually Wii Fit Trainer uses her Smash 4 render while Cloud and Robin (IIRC) use their ultimate render so Geno could maybe use his Ultimate render

She doesn't use her Smash 4 render tho

 

[NotLiquid]

Lol at a "narrative role".

Yes, if trophies took a much longer time, then they should have been even stronger deconfirmations but they weren't. Spirits therefore shouldn't be deconfirmations at all.

There's a pretty big difference in deciding late development to make DLC without impacting the man-hours that went into modeling content that had to be pre-planned, compared to deciding from the onset that you're going to be making additional content and then being able to slot in generic images late in development because you gave the justification that the concept is there to honor characters that couldn't become fighters.

But whatever floats your boat I suppose.

 

[MooMew64]

You're new here so let me explain, this is not the first time any of us had this conversation. To touch upon your AT point, spirits are comparable to trophies in previous Smash games. Mewtwo and Lucas had trophies in Smash 4 before DLC was decided for that game. Ergo, characters that are spirits have a non-zero percent possibility of making it into Ultimate during the second wave.

By now, it's a moot point that "it can happen if Sakurai wants to do it." Whether it actually happens is yet to be confirmed.

Fair enough. For the record, I'm not even on the side that 100% thinks spirits deconfirm. I just think they could is all. We really don't know.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

There's a pretty big difference in deciding late development to make DLC without impacting the man-hours that went into modeling content that had to be pre-planned, compared to deciding from the onset that you're going to be making additional content and then being able to slot in generic images late in development because you gave the justification that the concept is there to honor characters that couldn't become fighters.

But whatever floats your boat I suppose.

Except for DLC wasn't even decided until the game was about to be released. I don't even get what side you're on, you just keep making arguments that Spirits don't deconfirm while pretending that they are the opposite.

 

[Herocin]

Maybe there's a entire model swap for a Mii character to just be "Mii character but with a new hat" like model swaps for making King K. Rool Peter Griffin and all that??

She doesn't use her Smash 4 render tho

Ultimate render then but point still stands

 

[NotLiquid]

Except for DLC wasn't even decided until the game was about to be released. I don't even get what side you're on, you just keep making arguments that Spirits don't deconfirm.

Do you honestly believe that the choice to have DLC and the entire fighter selection was only just decided at the point when they announced it?

Negotiating with five separate companies on representing their content, how much is represented, how much they get etc. does not happen in a day. It's months of work, at minimum, given all the legal red tape you have to wade through.

 

[-crump-]

I'm going with Occam's Razor on this one. It does seem genuinely more likely that someone on the inside leaked some footage than someone who is leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the Ultimate modding community making two costumes for a fake leak.

That being said, I could be wrong, but I honestly think it's more likely to be true than false.

Good old Occam’s Razor. It’s never led us astray.

Never. Never ever.

I dunno. Until I see evidence that people have been really trying hard to crack Mii costume mods (of all things) I’m not comfortable saying this person is “leaps and bounds ahead” of other modders. And even then, I’ve seen people make some insane **** just to fool the Smash community. I’d say that’s actually more likely than someone on the Smash development team risking their career to show footage of a couple hats (and nothing else!!), and post it on 4chan.

 

[KatKit]

Don't let any of the recent rumors distract you from the fact that we are about to get Terry Bogard.

Sometime this week would be a pretty cool time to shadow drop him for a sista.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Except for DLC wasn't even decided until the game was about to be released. I don't even get what side you're on, you just keep making arguments that Spirits don't deconfirm.

It takes months to negotiate for DLC. When Sakurai said the selection was complete back in November he meant the negotiations with the other companies are already complete. A user in here with insider information claimed Banjo in particular was negotiated as far back as E3. This supports the argument that spirits are complementary roles for those who didn't get chosen for the fighters pass. I mean just look at Piranha Plant, it doesn't have a spirit. After the fighters pass is done spirits might get a chance to be promoted, but we'll have to wait to see how the next wave of DLC is planned.

 

[MooMew64]

Real talk, DLC talks were more than likely already going on while the base game was still in development. That stuff takes MONTHS of planning, negotiating, and developing.

Probably explains how PapaGenos had a source that heard about Banjo last year.

 

[SKX31]

Smash 4 isn't Ultimate. Trophies took a lot longer to make than slapping in some transparent PNGs into the game and even giving them a narrative role in context of Ultimate. Based on the Salromano leaks around Smash 4's release, the decision to make DLC was done later in development, so it makes sense that they weren't going to let trophies impact that. Spirits are a whole different ball game; putting one into Smash probably takes no longer than a day, and DLC was likely on the cards very early, so the context for their inclusion was relatively painless while still carrying a little more weight.

Either way, I don't know how anyone can look at the Fighters Pass and see that the fighter selection we got was handled completely outside of what Smash Ultimate already chose to represent. The fighter slate was already hashed out and negotiated mid-last year, the Spirits were clearly worked around that fact. That's not to say the same rules apply for the next wave because we're in uncharted territory, but I still reckon there's plenty of eager fish in the sea for them that they wouldn't have to return to that spirit pile if they didn't want to.

Honestly I don't think that's the most important thing re: Spirits. Spirits feel really wonky because A) they can be placed in important spots, like Rayman blocking off a tunneled route, or B) details like Geno having 10 000 power (a direct reference to Geno Whirl), which tells us that effort was put into the Spirits. Those don't disconfirm Spirits automatically of course, but we don't know how Sakurai and co. treats Spirits. Like is WoL important enough to bar Spirits from being promoted? Or will they change course? We haven't heard either just yet beyond (never 100 % reliable) leaks.

Honestly what makes me doubt Geno at least somewhat is Sakurai being invited over to dinner by Yosuke Saito. That is more indicative that S-E might not be done talking, for all intents and purposes. Nothing definitive of course, but I'd not be so sure things are that crystal clear with this leak.

 

[Deleted member]

Don't let any of the recent rumors distract you from the fact that we are about to get Terry Bogard.

Sometime this week would be a pretty cool time to shadow drop him for a sista.

I've never been so excited for a fighter I've just learned about until now. Felt like I've known him forever.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Ok so any new developments in the last 12 pages?

 

[Deleted member]

Ok so any new developments in the last 12 pages?

Terry Bogard was found dead outside the front doors of Geese Inc. It seems he jumped from the top of the tower. Tragic.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Ok so any new developments in the last 12 pages?

We got a leak of 2 mii costumes this one is a video

It’s a mallow costume brawler and cacodemon gunner and already proven it can’t be modded from smash 4 nor anybody has modded ultimate yet and those costume images nowhere to be found on the web yet

 

[Cutie Gwen]

We got a leak of 2 mii costumes this one is a video

It’s a mallow costume brawler and cacodemon gunner and already proven it can’t be modded from smash 4 nor anybody has modded ultimate yet and those costume images nowhere to be found on the web yet

Ok so we have proof it couldn't have been modded? What proof is that then?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Do you honestly believe that the choice to have DLC and the entire fighter selection was only just decided at the point when they announced it?

Negotiating with five separate companies on representing their content, how much is represented, how much they get etc. does not happen in a day. It's months of work, at minimum, given all the legal red tape you have to wade through.

The post FP characters weren't decided until long after the game was released.

 

[Deleted member]

We got a leak of 2 mii costumes this one is a video

It’s a mallow costume brawler and cacodemon gunner and already proven it can’t be modded from smash 4 nor anybody has modded ultimate yet and those costume images nowhere to be found on the web yet

WHERE

WHERE THE **** WHERE IS THIS VIDEO!?!?!?!?

 

[Sour Supreme]

Ooh **** is heating up. Those Mii Costumes are quite convincing, if you ask me. I will gladly take Geno and Doom Slayer.

 

[MooMew64]

Ok so we have proof it couldn't have been modded? What proof is that then?

People in the Ultimate modding community have said it would be extremely difficulty. However, no one has said impossible to my knowledge.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

Ok so we have proof it couldn't have been modded? What proof is that then?

Might be BS, but:

 

[Sour Supreme]

WHERE

WHERE THE **** WHERE IS THIS VIDEO!?!?!?!?

 

[TheCJBrine]

I think Spirits disconfirm characters for the current pass, but they could still get in Wave 2. Anyone saying they disconfirm for Wave 2 are working off pure assumptions.

Ok so we have proof it couldn't have been modded? What proof is that then?

Apparently the way mii costumes work in Ultimate is different than in Smash 4, making it seemingly impossible to do anything more than color changes without weird proportions/other issues or causing the game to crash because of a larger file size. And if the costume system was edited, they’d have to change it for each individual mii type.

 

[Deleted member]

WHERE

WHERE THE **** WHERE IS THIS VIDEO!?!?!?!?

http://is2.4chan.org/v/1572849313689.webm
http://is2.4chan.org/v/1572849990805.webm

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Terry Bogard was found dead outside the front doors of Geese Inc. It seems he jumped from the top of the tower. Tragic.

This is the funniest thing I've seen today and I don't know why.

 

[Deleted member]

viDEO

Might be BS, but:
View attachment 244963

Y'all I'm flipping out right now.

Could very well be a really talented guy with a lot of time on his hands, but otherwise, this is cool as hell.

 

[NotLiquid]

The post FP characters weren't decided until long after the game was released.

I'm not talking about post-FP, I'm talking about this FP. Unless you just straight up didn't read my post and glossed over where I said that "those rules might not apply for post-FP".

 

[DMTN]

If this is real, these costumes are probably some time away. Remember that one playtester that leaked Piranha Plant on Reddit (I think his name was noatesty)? According to him, Piranha Plant was in a playable state in August 2018. The character released at the end of January 2019, nearly five months later. Now I assume Mii costumes are not as big of a deal as characters, but it's still possible none of these costumes are in Terry's batch, even if they are real.

 

[Garteam]

Y'all I'm flipping out right now.

Could very well be a really talented guy with a lot of time on his hands, but otherwise, this is cool as hell.

This is my perspective. People calling this a mod is giving me flashbacks to people calling the ESRB footage from Smash for 3DS a mod.

Possible? Yes. Talented people with an eye for detail and time on their hands can honestly do wonders (Omni's Ray-Man leak and the Grinch leak are prime examples). However, the conditions necessary for this to be a mod are so unlikely it's really hard to logically justify.

 

[3BitSaurus]

If this is real, these costumes are probably some time away. Remember that one playtester that leaked Piranha Plant on Reddit (I think his name was noatesty)? According to him, Piranha Plant was in a playable state in August. The character released at the end of January, nearly five months later. Now I assume Mii costumes are not as big of a deal as characters, but it's still possible none of these costumes are in Terry's batch, even if they are real.

If memory serves, the Ken image leak was some good three months before Ken's actual reveal. So it's not farfetched to think that these costumes wouldn't necessarily come with Terry, but later on.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I mean, we know for a fact that characters are generally finished 2 months before release so idk what this means.


Also holy **** Slayer might actually be legit

 

[Sour Supreme]

Y'all I'm flipping out right now.

Could very well be a really talented guy with a lot of time on his hands, but otherwise, this is cool as hell.

Seeming pretty convincing. To me, it would be strange for someone who has made such leaps and bounds in modding Ultimate to simply create a fake leak rather than be excited about sharing their progress. Like, you're the first one to create highly detailed Mii Costumes and instead of boasting you're trying to divert credit to Nintendo? Lame.

 

[Deleted member]

This is my perspective. People calling this a mod is giving me flashbacks to people calling the ESRB footage from Smash for 3DS a mod.

Possible? Yes. Talented people with an eye for detail and time on their hands can honestly do wonders (Omni's Ray-Man leak and the Grinch leak are prime examples). However, the conditions necessary for this to be a mod are so unlikely it's really hard to logically justify.

So from what I understand, the mii costumes work in that they need specific algorithms for each specific size, making this particularly hard to mod. Is that right?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

I'm not talking about post-FP, I'm talking about this FP. Unless you just straight up didn't read my post and glossed over where I said that "those rules might not apply for post-FP".

And I wasn't talking about this FP, I was talking about post FP. Why on earth would I be talking about the Fighter's Pass?