Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[cybersai]

Based on Sakurai's latest column, only expecting 3 newcomers for a total of 8.

One is Incineroar. So the last two is any mix of Geno, Skull Kid, semi-clone Dixie, etc. I don't think Isaac is making it now, sadly. Bandana Dee is likely getting the Toad treatment and will be ignored. Don't see a new Namco rep either. And I don't think Banjo will happen till DLC.

I have no idea why people aren't setting their expectations low. Everything points to very few newcomers remaining, we're getting close to the likely 8 newcomers total, we have 2 months left. It sounds to me like half this forum is setting itself up for disappointment, the same way people did when Brawl and Smash U's final rosters were revealed. I guess history repeats itself over and over.

 

[Daedulus]

I have a strange feeling about all this... I think that the final roster (including DLCs) will be a lot different than what most of us expect...

I think that at some point it will turn out that vergeben's leak is not completely correct and that some unexpected stuff will happen.

I especially predict that the main roster will be extremely disappointing and that they are doing it on purpose to push paid DLCs, but maybe I'm too much pessimistic.

Pfftttt... the roster is already amazing, k rool ridley and everyone in smash ever

 

[RileyXY1]

Based on Sakurai's latest column, only expecting 3 newcomers for a total of 8.

One is Incineroar. So the last two is any mix of Geno, Skull Kid, semi-clone Dixie, etc. I don't think Isaac is making it now, sadly. Bandana Dee is likely getting the Toad treatment and will be ignored. Don't see a new Namco rep either. And I don't think Banjo will happen till DLC.

I have no idea why people aren't setting their expectations low. Everything points to very few newcomers remaining, we're getting close to the likely 8 newcomers total, we have 2 months left. It sounds to me like half this forum is setting itself up for disappointment, the same way people did when Brawl and Smash U's final rosters were revealed. I guess history repeats itself over and over.

That column implies that they are slowing down the pace of the newcomer reveals, not that there are few remaining challengers.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

yeah but the last Smash Direct only revealed 2 newcomers (and 3 echoes), so even if there is another Smash Direct, at best there will be only 2 unique newcomers.
Since they said they are slowing down the rate of announcements, I suppose there will be a last Smash Direct and nothing else, even if a regular Direct is announced in october it probably won't include any Smash related news.

And there is another thing to take in consideration: They must talk about the single player modes, the eventual stage creator (if it still exists), the online, DLCs, etc... so I think they will announce less than the 2+3 of the last time. Maybe 1+2, or even 1+1 (the latter would confirm the box theory assuming that the +1 echo is Ken).

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Food for thought but when Sakurai said they're slowing down he could had meant no reveals or not as much in October and then the rest in November. It's a stretch but one can hope on that. We'll see...

Still hoping for 4 more uniques and 4 more echos.

Even then I won't be disappointed never the less since I got K. Rool and Ridley although I still want Banjo, Black Shadow, Elma and Medusa. There's always hope in the form of DLC for them if they don't make Base.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Yeah, Ridley, K Rool and the Inkling are good additions, but also very expected.... well at the end it doesn't matter if they are expected or not, when the game is out, i guess.

My problem is that the rest of the newcomers so far are all clones (echoes) and semiclones (Isabelle), and I'm not really a fan of this approach.
EDIT: oh, and Simon, I forgot.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Sakurai’s comment doesn’t shrink the number

The blog theory could still be right

Besides who thought there would be atleast 2 in the direct which revealed isabelle I think the slow down reveals all started with isabelle

Besides incineroar or which ever Pokémon, ken and the Square Enix rep i exspect 1-3 that doesn’t involve Vergeben

 

[cybersai]

Problem is they're not going to shove 4 newcomer reveals in a single direct, that's absurd. As said the Smash directs also have to go into detail about the single player modes, more about the online, any other modes Sakurai hasn't talked about yet (trophies, all-star, stage builder), etc.

We've gotten two newcomer reveals in a direct so far with a few echoes. I would never expect more than 2 newcomers in a single Smash direct.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Problem is they're not going to shove 4 newcomer reveals in a single direct, that's absurd. As said the Smash directs also have to go into detail about the single player modes, more about the online, any other modes Sakurai hasn't talked about yet (trophies, all-star, stage builder), etc.

We've gotten two newcomer reveals in a direct so far with a few echoes. I would never expect more than 2 newcomers in a single Smash direct.

And why exactly is it absurd?

 

[cybersai]

And why exactly is it absurd?

Most Smash directs are less than 40 minutes. You expect 4 newcomer reveals with trailers and everything in one direct? How would they pace that, along with the last few echoes shown, and Sakurai going into detail about other single or multiplayer modes?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Most Smash directs are less than 40 minutes. You expect 4 newcomer reveals with trailers and everything in one direct? How would they pace that, along with the last few echoes shown, and Sakurai going into detail about other single or multiplayer modes?

Smash 4 had three newcomer announcements together, along with the reveal of the game itself. Trailers themselves don’t really take a lot of time, so if done in a quick succession, a la 50 Fact Extravaganza, it’s certainly not outside the realm of possibility.

Besides, the interview with Sakurai only speaks about decreasing the speed at which newcomers are revealed. It doesn’t say anything about other kinds of information. We could get, for example, a Direct in October revealing only one or two characters, but going in-depth with modes and features. That would leave November free to reveal however many newcomers they want.

 

[StormC]

I think this hurts the chances of an October reveal but doesn't kill it dead. Still expecting a Smash Direct in early November... like, literally potentially November 1st, since that's the last business day of that week in Japan and it's before the special set goes on sale.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

We can still hope there's something at Minecon this week as well as a Lucina/Robin style reveal in October.

 

[StormC]

We can still hope there's something at Minecon this week as well as a Lucina/Robin style reveal in October.

Smash characters are never announced at events completely unrelated to Smash though. besides I'm certainly not hoping for something at minecon

 

[TheCJBrine]

We can still hope there's something at Minecon this week as well as a Lucina/Robin style reveal in October.

I like Minecraft.

I like Steve.

pls minecon

 

[Daedulus]

Yeah, Ridley, K Rool and the Inkling are good additions, but also very expected.... well at the end it doesn't matter if they are expected or not, when the game is out, i guess.

My problem is that the rest of the newcomers so far are all clones (echoes) and semiclones (Isabelle), and I'm not really a fan of this approach.
EDIT: oh, and Simon, I forgot.

Pffftttt, sakurai said a million times that ridley would never be in smash, and we all knew that snake had no shot of making it in, they do clones to give the fans requested characters and to give reps

 

[StormC]

“Expected” or not, this is a great roster. It’s not quite Brawl level for me, but I already love it more than 4’s. Getting someone like Banjo into the base game would seal the deal on it being the all time best.

 

[ganondorf_22]

“Expected” or not, this is a great roster. It’s not quite Brawl level for me, but I already love it more than 4’s. Getting someone like Banjo into the base game would seal the deal on it being the all time best.

How is it not Brawl level if it has everyone from Brawl in it?

 

[StormC]

How is it not Brawl level if it has everyone from Brawl in it?

Because I’m speaking strictly in terms of newcomers and comparing my enjoyment of the newcomers between games. I buy new Smash games to play as new characters so they’re the selling point.

For Brawl, most of my hype went to Diddy, Dedede, Meta Knight, Sonic, and Wolf.

For Smash 4, it was Mega Man, Palutena, Bowser Jr., Duck Hunt, Greninja, Rosalina, and Cloud for DLC. But overall only Mega Man and Cloud got me especially excited.

K. Rool and Ridley are obviously the big dogs of Ultimate, but I loved the Belmonts and their inclusion got me to play their games. Haven’t played Splatoon or Animal Crossing but both are heavyweights in the current era of Nintendo and their characters are obvious inclusions (especially Inkling, who seems very unique with the ink mechanic).

I guess to rate it one way, Brawl’s newcomers are like a 9, For’s a 7, and Ultimate so far gets an 8 from me. Ultimate’s biggest weapon is of course Everyone Is Here, which more than makes up for any small blind spots in the newcomer roster.

 

[SuperSceptile15]

Please no Incineroar... I want both him and Vergeben to be blown back.

 

[Daedulus]

Because I’m speaking strictly in terms of newcomers and comparing my enjoyment of the newcomers between games. I buy new Smash games to play as new characters so they’re the selling point.

For Brawl, most of my hype went to Diddy, Dedede, Meta Knight, Sonic, and Wolf.

For Smash 4, it was Mega Man, Palutena, Bowser Jr., Duck Hunt, Greninja, Rosalina, and Cloud for DLC. But overall only Mega Man and Cloud got me especially excited.

K. Rool and Ridley are obviously the big dogs of Ultimate, but I loved the Belmonts and their inclusion got me to play their games. Haven’t played Splatoon or Animal Crossing but both are heavyweights in the current era of Nintendo and their characters are obvious inclusions (especially Inkling, who seems very unique with the ink mechanic).

I guess to rate it one way, Brawl’s newcomers are like a 9, For’s a 7, and Ultimate so far gets an 8 from me. Ultimate’s biggest weapon is of course Everyone Is Here, which more than makes up for any small blind spots in the newcomer roster.

You two both make good points, but I feel like people should be thankful for what they have, even if the box or blog theory are true, we still got so many characters, whether they be old or new, I'm impressed by the music, stages and every little detail sakurai adds to make this game so much better.

Sakurai never had to do this. He could have just added Nintendo characters and make there only be 3 reveals each direct, but he does it for us the fans, Sakurai almost starved himself working on melee, I just hope people realize the unique game the smash team has given us.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

I think I got the finale roster but could go wrong

5-6 more seems right

For unique
Incineroar
Isaac
Skull kid
Geno

For echos
Ken
Shadow

Exclude either skull kid or Isaac if 5

 

[Daedulus]

I think I got the finale roster but could go wrong

5-6 more seems right

For unique
Incineroar
Isaac
Skull kid
Geno

For echos
Ken
Shadow

Exclude either skull kid or Isaac if 5

Same

 

[StormC]

You two both make good points, but I feel like people should be thankful for what they have, even if the box or blog theory are true, we still got so many characters, whether they be old or new, I'm impressed by the music, stages and every little detail sakurai adds to make this game so much better.

Sakurai never had to do this. He could have just added Nintendo characters and make there only be 3 reveals each direct, but he does it for us the fans, Sakurai almost starved himself working on melee, I just hope people realize the unique game the smash team has given us.

I never asked Sakurai to work himself to half-death to make this game.

It should go without saying I'm more-or-less already satisfied with the game, I just hope the rest of the characters are still good additions, even if they don't appeal to me as much as who we have. This game will be the best 60 dollars I ever spent, I can tell you that right now.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

You two both make good points, but I feel like people should be thankful for what they have, even if the box or blog theory are true, we still got so many characters, whether they be old or new, I'm impressed by the music, stages and every little detail sakurai adds to make this game so much better.

Sakurai never had to do this. He could have just added Nintendo characters and make there only be 3 reveals each direct, but he does it for us the fans, Sakurai almost starved himself working on melee, I just hope people realize the unique game the smash team has given us.

I always have a bit of a problem with the whole be thankful for being able to buy a product mentality, especially with something like Smash that was bound to come anyway. Being thankful to any consumer entertainment product feels weird. Maybe it’s just the word thankful that just makes the tone of what is a well meaning comment all wrong when I read it.
Perhaps, look at all the beautiful stuff that is in the game instead of what isn’t is a better phrase for that.

And I’m most certainly appreciative of Sakurai’s dedication to Smash and the amount of content he seems to be jamming into Ultimate. I’ve noted before, yeah, 4 of them are currently Echo fighters and another 7 are returning veterans, but we’re already up to 16 additions from Smash 4 (Echo fighters just got counted as characters in past games anyway). That’s only one shy of Smash 4’s additions from Brawl and that game had cuts! Plus the stage total is absolutely insane and plays like a Smash players dream, all of the best from every previous game? Pretty much. Not to mention modes, and likely another single player focused experience.

So yeah, while I’m missing Poke Floats and PAC-Maze, would have really liked a couple of unique newcomers (to the point where I’d easily sacrifice Echo fighters) and think that there are a handful of big fan characters that should still get in, and think overall completely new stuff should have been added...

That just pales in comparison especially in a game where the likes of Ridley, Simon Belmont, and King K Rool have all been added, and I somehow got back stages I long thought dead and forgotten (Hannenbow you beautiful *******), and I’ve got the kinds of additional modes I’ve wanted plus so many quality of life changes. Yeah, I’m still on the hype train for Ultimate the game releasing even if I’ve mostly tuned out of newcomer hype at this point.

 

[JaidynReiman]

Just a quick drop. My opinions:

1.) Verge's last two full newcomers aren't happening.

2.) Ken probably is happening, though I can see him not.

3.) 5-7 reveals, mostly Echoes. I think we will get a Robin-like reveal as well, that's where the possibly 6 comes in.

4.) If we get the Robin-like reveal, I predict the Smash Direct's two big reveals will be Spirits Mode and one final big newcomer.

5.) I can potentially see two newcomers here, though, in which case we could get up to 7 more total, but I'm leaning on 5 atm.

6.) I think the roster will be 7 and 7 or 8 and 8. So 2-3 full newcomers and 3-4 Echoes.

7.) Music Theory and Blog Theory are both legit.

8.) Box Theory... I'm sure it means something, so I do think Ken is happening. But I think even with Sakurai's statements its extremely unlikely we only have one Echo and one newcomer. I have a theory on why the box was designed that way, though. We'll see if it pans out.


My predictions:

Newcomers -
Isaac
Elma *
Banjo-Kazooie

Echoes -
Felix *
Dixie Kong
Ken
Shadow

* These characters I'm not as confident in as the others. In the off-chance we do get more, I can see them happening, but I'm not actively predicting it.

I never asked Sakurai to work himself to half-death to make this game.

It should go without saying I'm more-or-less already satisfied with the game, I just hope the rest of the characters are still good additions, even if they don't appeal to me as much as who we have. This game will be the best 60 dollars I ever spent, I can tell you that right now.

This exactly. I HATE the argument "Sakurai works himself half to death" like he's doing us a favor. Nobody asks him to do that. That's an absolutely stupid and ridiculous argument. We can't control what Sakurai does, and should not be expected to be responsible and/or support everything he does because he chose to do something NOBODY asked him to do.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

You know what would be the real WTF character? More than Nintendo Labo, WiiFit Trainer, ROB or MrG&W?

The protagonist of Project H.A.M.M.E.R.

 

[Smady]

I have to agree with general sentiment here that we've got at best 6 newcomers left, 3 echoes and 3 unique newcomers.

My bet right now for uniques is Incineroar, Geno and one other I'm less sure on, leaning towards Banjo. Echoes would be Ken, Dixie and Shadow, they are far easier to predict. A lot of this is hinging on Vergeben. If he's wrong then you can throw out Incineroar and the Banjo prediction as that's based on his Minecraft talk, and I find it hard to see us get Steve playable, but I guess anything is possible.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I think Spring Man should be the first DLC character.

 

[Daedulus]

I never asked Sakurai to work himself to half-death to make this game.

It should go without saying I'm more-or-less already satisfied with the game, I just hope the rest of the characters are still good additions, even if they don't appeal to me as much as who we have. This game will be the best 60 dollars I ever spent, I can tell you that right now.

I never said you did I'm just saying that sakurai never had to care about what the fans want, mario kart wii was one of the best selling games of all time, yet it did nothing to advance the series in any way, shape or form. Mario kart shows that you need to need to add in what the fans want to make a series successful. But sakurai does it any way.

 

[BirthNote]

Anyone expecting another 6 newcomers is just asking to be disappointed.

Personally I think we're getting 5 more (Unique) at the absolute maximum.

 

[StormC]

I hope it's 3 unique newcomers and 4 echoes left. Then we have a clean 8/8 unique/echo roster. You could have 8 player for either.

If we don't get an October reveal though, I assume it's just the two left in the final Smash Direct.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

You know what would be the real WTF character? More than Nintendo Labo, WiiFit Trainer, ROB or MrG&W?

The protagonist of Project H.A.M.M.E.R.

This may sound crazy but it may be Geno

And it’s simply because only smash players know him more than the general public

 

[Door Key Pig]

Based on Sakurai's latest column, only expecting 3 newcomers for a total of 8.

One is Incineroar. So the last two is any mix of Geno, Skull Kid, semi-clone Dixie, etc. I don't think Isaac is making it now, sadly. Bandana Dee is likely getting the Toad treatment and will be ignored. Don't see a new Namco rep either. And I don't think Banjo will happen till DLC.

I have no idea why people aren't setting their expectations low. Everything points to very few newcomers remaining, we're getting close to the likely 8 newcomers total, we have 2 months left. It sounds to me like half this forum is setting itself up for disappointment, the same way people did when Brawl and Smash U's final rosters were revealed. I guess history repeats itself over and over.

Sooooo could it be Incineroar, Geno and the Chorus Kids not including echos??? CK could be this games surprise character, especially as they are kinda "slept on" in Smash speculation currently.

 

[TBone06]

This may sound crazy but it may be Geno

And it’s simply because only smash players know him more than the general public

It actually would make a lot of sense. The general public wouldn't have had any idea who Mr. Game and Watch was in Melee. You could argue that the general public wouldn't know who ROB was back in Brawl. Duck Hunt I feel is a bit more recognizable. But Geno absolutely fits. The people who love him, love him. But not everyone knows who he is. I think he would be a perfect fit for that role in Smash Ultimate as it's a fan service move, but still leaves a lot of people going WTF?

 

[dezeray112]

I think Spring Man should be the first DLC character.

Springman would be the most likely candidate as DLC either ways.

 

[JaidynReiman]

I have to agree with general sentiment here that we've got at best 6 newcomers left, 3 echoes and 3 unique newcomers.

My bet right now for uniques is Incineroar, Geno and one other I'm less sure on, leaning towards Banjo. Echoes would be Ken, Dixie and Shadow, they are far easier to predict. A lot of this is hinging on Vergeben. If he's wrong then you can throw out Incineroar and the Banjo prediction as that's based on his Minecraft talk, and I find it hard to see us get Steve playable, but I guess anything is possible.

Personally betting on 5 or 7 rather than 6. But if we've got 3 uniques left, we will see a Smash Direct Mini to announce a fighter (or fighter and an Echo) in October similar to the Robin/Lucina reveal. There's no going around it. We won't get a General Direct before launch, and the Smash Direct will only have two at most.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Springman would be the most likely candidate as DLC either ways.

As well as Rex from Xenoblade 2.

I even see an Three Houses FE rep, Gen 8 Pokemon and Sylux to promote said upcoming games.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

As well as Rex from Xenoblade 2.

I even see an Three Houses FE rep, Gen 8 Pokemon and Sylux to promote said upcoming games.

I doubt we'll get another Metroid character through DLC. I think Sylux would actually be pretty cool, but when we already got Ridley and Dark Samus added? That's a lot of Metroid, and this is way more than most of us Metroid fans expected to be honest. Similarly if Pokemon gets a unique base character I wouldn't expect another to show up because of the backlash, same with FE (Even though we might finally get a halfway decent Axe user...).

I think Rex and Springman are the most sensible first party characters that missed the cutoff for this game. If we end up with say, Incineroar and Geno as final reveals, we might see a DLC cycle like this (I'm going to assume we get 7 again just for the sake of things, though to be fair, we don't know if DLC will be a thing and I'm afraid Sakurai might just stop at release).

1. Fan Pick Not in the Base Roster - Basically your Bandanna Dee, Isaac, Skull Kid, etc. A popular character that didn't make the base roster.
2. Springman w/ Ribbon Girl Echo (Preferably they'd choose someone more interesting, but I think he makes the most sense)
3. Rex and Pyra
4. Dragon Quest Character (Biggest franchise not in Smash from Japan) or Sora
5. Lloyd Irving - He's got the popularity and Namco could always use a good second rep.
6. Waluigi (Entirely depends on how Sakurai responded to the outcry for him, but if any character has a chance at the upgrade, it's him)
7. A Western Third Party - We've yet to see one in Smash, but we have seen Rayman in limited capacity as a trophy. I think he or another western third party gets a character here.

Wild Card: IF we get Steve on base roster, then I'd probably call Banjo Kazooie a likely DLC pick. He might just be the fan pick I mentioned above in that situation.

Not necessarily in that order, but I'd imagine something like this would be our DLC cycle. We got three third parties last time, so I wouldn't be surprised with a similar number. First party IPs make sense as the greater overall focus of DLC, and I could imagine a cycle where he continues to focus on fan picks, but I wouldn't count on it either.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

6. Waluigi (Entirely depends on how Sakurai responded to the outcry for him, but if any character has a chance at the upgrade, it's him)

Not gonna happen. Fans are just gonna have to wait until next game.