Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Garteam]

Here's how I think that odyssey that was getting Hero in the game went, based on interviews, leaks, and my own speculation:

December 2015 - Ultimate enters its formal planning stages. Sakurai begins considering new third parties to add to the base game. He ultimately settles on Castlevania and Dragon Quest due to being the type of "big, iconic franchises" that he discussed after Castlevania's reveal in August 2018.

Early/Mid 2016 - Sakurai goes to Square to negotiate about using Final Fantasy and Cloud in Ultimate. Here, he brings up the idea of adding Dragon Quest to Smash. Hori and Square try to push for Slime, but Sakurai fights to use an actual Dragon Quest protagonist.

Mid/Late 2016 - Negotiations end and the DQ protagonist beats Slime. Here, Sakurai decides that the specific characters will be Arusu for his iconic appearance and the Luminary due to being the most recent protagonist. The two presumably share a character slot and the name "Erdrick/Roto" due to both of these characters using this title.

Early 2017 - Erdrick's planning is completed and he's about to start development. Erdrick's moveset is planned out and Sakurai goes to Square-Enix and Armour Studio to get formal approval. Here, Hori presumably brings up the idea of having each more costume slots as a separate character. Sakurai likes the idea, but Square has reservations about having the various Dragon Quest characters fight each other.

Mid 2017 - Square gets over their hang-ups of having the Heroes fight each other. Sakurai and Hori begin discussing who to add next. Eight is the next to make the cut to appeal to Western audiences. Madison is considered due to his popularity, but is ultimately deemed unfeasible due to his staff. Solo is instead chosen to represent the Zenithan trilogy. Due to having characters that never used the title, Erdrick is dropped as the character's name in favour of Hero (the shared class of DQ protagonists). However, Hero is still referred to as Erdrick internally.

Early 2018 - Sakurai begins to negotiate with Koichi Sugiyama about using Dragon Quest music. Sugiyama is Sugiyama and expects a ridiculous cut of Ultimate's profits. Nintendo's accountants **** a brick at the amount of money they'd have to give to Sugiyama. Sakurai decides to delay Hero to the first DLC character so that Sugiyama only gets a cut of those sales.

Early/Mid 2018 - Sakurai brings up his idea of making Hero a DLC character rather than in the base game. Square likes this as it ultimately makes them more money. However, they want Cloud pushed back with him to maximize profit. Sakurai says no, as losing Cloud means losing the "Everyone is Here!" factor which Ultimate was designed around. Negotiations get tough, with Sakurai keeping Cloud but losing any additional Final Fantasy content that wasn't in Smash for Wii U.

Late 2018 - Smash Ultimate goes gold. Sakurai and his team begin working on the first three Fighter's Pass characters, Hero, Joker, and Banjo & Kazooie. Sakurai plans to use the extra dev time to give Hero four additional costumes. Nintendo's marketing team wants to announce the first DLC character at the Game Awards so they would be unveiled on the same night the game releases. Sakurai tells them that Hero is the first character, but Nintendo wants someone who's either more surprising or would be better known to the Western audience watching the Game Awards. Sakurai complies and changes everything at the last second, rerouting the DLC project plan so Joker would be the first to release and getting Atlas to animate a quick teaser trailer for Joker. With this reroute, Hero presumably loses the opportunity to have 8 unique costumes due to time constraints, instead getting alts for the 4 costumes that began development in the base version.

2019 - Hero is developed to be in a presentable state for an E3 reveal and spends the following 2 months getting balance for a July 2019 release date.

 

[perfectchaos83]

And that's exactly what Joker didn't have. Since no one leaked him or thought that much about him on the speculation scene, the surprise was big enough to make everyone start to doubt Erdrick coming. But then, Hero happened despite the hopes of all detractors, Shinobi leaked Banjo and NoE screwed-up big time with the 4th fighter's page at the same time leakers ganged up to spoil said fighter's name, and no matter if it's Ryu or Crash, both have been already spoiled.

My main point is that fake leaks very rarely throw in curveballs, Something Sakurai, more often than not, does do. Simply put, I don't think Crash or Hayabusa or Doom Guy are necessarily curveballs. They've been expected for months for a wide range of reasons.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

It may not necessarily be Geno, though, just a Square character in general, since Chocobo is also there.

Which I'd be really happy about anyway cuz' 3 characters I want are from there but oh well.

Let's wait a few more weeks.

If it was just a Square Enix character, we probably would have seen Geno being mentioned along with those Mii costumes. The fact that he mentions Mallow and Smithy without Geno can only mean good things for him at the moment.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

If it was just a Square Enix character, we probably would have seen Geno being mentioned along with those Mii costumes. The fact that he mentions Mallow and Smithy without Geno can only mean good things for him at the moment.

Then it turns out they simply didn't find out about the Geno costume by then

 

[Nekoo]

Here's how I think that odyssey that was getting Hero in the game went, based on interviews, leaks, and my own speculation:

December 2015 - Ultimate enters its formal planning stages. Sakurai begins considering new third parties to add to the base game. He ultimately settles on Castlevania and Dragon Quest due to being the type of "big, iconic franchises" that he discussed after Castlevania's reveal in August 2018.

Early/Mid 2016 - Sakurai goes to Square to negotiate about using Final Fantasy and Cloud in Ultimate. Here, he brings up the idea of adding Dragon Quest to Smash. Hori and Square try to push for Slime, but Sakurai fights to use an actual Dragon Quest protagonist.

Mid/Late 2016 - Negotiations end and the DQ protagonist beats Slime. Here, Sakurai decides that the specific characters will be Arusu for his iconic appearance and the Luminary due to being the most recent protagonist. The two presumably share a character slot and the name "Erdrick/Roto" due to both of these characters using this title.

Early 2017 - Erdrick's planning is completed and he's about to start development. Erdrick's moveset is planned out and Sakurai goes to Square-Enix and Armour Studio to get formal approval. Here, Hori presumably brings up the idea of having each more costume slots as a separate character. Sakurai likes the idea, but Square has reservations about having the various Dragon Quest characters fight each other.

Mid 2017 - Square gets over their hang-ups of having the Heroes fight each other. Sakurai and Hori begin discussing who to add next. Eight is the next to make the cut to appeal to Western audiences. Madison is considered due to his popularity, but is ultimately deemed unfeasible due to his staff. Solo is instead chosen to represent the Zenithan trilogy. Due to having characters that never used the title, Erdrick is dropped as the character's name in favour of Hero (the shared class of DQ protagonists). However, Hero is still referred to as Erdrick internally.

Early 2018 - Sakurai begins to negotiate with Koichi Sugiyama about using Dragon Quest music. Sugiyama is Sugiyama and expects a ridiculous cut of Ultimate's profits. Nintendo's accountants **** a brick at the amount of money they'd have to give to Sugiyama. Sakurai decides to delay Hero to the first DLC character so that Sugiyama only gets a cut of those sales.

Early/Mid 2018 - Sakurai brings up his idea of making Hero a DLC character rather than in the base game. Square likes this as it ultimately makes them more money. However, they want Cloud pushed back with him to maximize profit. Sakurai says no, as losing Cloud means losing the "Everyone is Here!" factor which Ultimate was designed around. Negotiations get tough, with Sakurai keeping Cloud but losing any additional Final Fantasy content that wasn't in Smash for Wii U.

Late 2018 - Smash Ultimate goes gold. Sakurai and his team begin working on the first three Fighter's Pass characters, Hero, Joker, and Banjo & Kazooie. Sakurai plans to use the extra dev time to give Hero four additional costumes. Nintendo's marketing team wants to announce the first DLC character at the Game Awards so they would be unveiled on the same night the game releases. Sakurai tells them that Hero is the first character, but Nintendo wants someone who's either more surprising or would be better known to the Western audience watching the Game Awards. Sakurai complies and changes everything at the last second, rerouting the DLC project plan so Joker would be the first to release and getting Atlas to animate a quick teaser trailer for Joker. With this reroute, Hero presumably loses the opportunity to have 8 unique costumes due to time constraints, instead getting alts for the 4 costumes that began development in the base version.

2019 - Hero is developed with to be in a presentable state for an E3 reveal and spends the following 2 months getting balance for a July 2019 release date.

You already got your first point wrong when the Project Document and first proposal for Ultimate was Finished in December 2015, the day the last smash 4 direct was broadcasted, and we knew Sakurai was working on another project (aka Ultimate) in April 2015.

There probably a bigger chance that Cloud/Bayo/Corrin were planned already as far as April 2015 for Smash Ultimate in the early planning document, before it being over in Decembers 2015, which could explain why Cloud and Bayonetta barely (or nothing at all for Cloud) got anything new in Ultimate, as their contract were done for both Smash 4 and Smash Ultimate.
Hero being the First DLC wasn't true, and if we though of this, it was because Square-Enix THEMSELVES ****ed up and were throwing names around about a Square-Enix DLC and since we only knew about it, we though it was the first DLC, when it was not.
Also if you forget that Sakurai himself said that he and the team had no idea for the DLC when the game was revealed in February 2018, when the game was first revealed... Most of the job was done, and I can personally tell you that the game was already in testing/Bug-testing and is why lots of people got infoes about the game during it's pre-release, everything was mostly already done, beside PP.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Then it turns out they simply didn't find out about the Geno costume by then

That's a possibility and it could just be an Isaac situation but I think now that Sakurai has gotten two of Square Enix's biggest franchises in Smash (Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest). Maybe Square Enix will finally allow Sakurai to make Geno a playable character?

 

[GKMLTTSB]

Of the three in discussion, I can't say I'm particularly on any 'team' as far as personal desire goes, though I'd probably go Crash -> Hayabusa -> Doombro overall. Crash does represent something more significant for gaming, IMO (the major split starting with the PSX). Hayabusa and Doomboy both have legacy on their side, but Hayabusa just seems to be intrinsically a better fit, and I feel like it would open up Ninja Gaiden to a lot of people that have either never heard of the series or simply looked past it, while Doom is still a huge thing that far more people are already eyeballing.

Plus, I'm fairly biased against Doomdude on a personal level, so there's that. >_>

Not likely to be a popular opinion, but while I respect Doom's legacy and contribution to the FPS genre, I'm just not fond of that type of non-specific character, personally, and feel someone like Duke Nukem or Sam Stone would stand out more as a character while still filling the demographic niche well. Admittedly Duke has some other issues, but eh... >_>

So my vote is... someone else, though I wouldn't have any particular issues with either Crash or Hayabusa. Overall, I tend to favour characters that will get more interesting discussions going and bring people into series they otherwise would have looked past, so anyone that does that will at least bring something fun to the table.

 

[Calamitas]

Getting some Grinch flashbacks here, personally.

 

[Deleted member]

It may not necessarily be Geno, though, just a Square character in general, since Chocobo is also there.

Which I'd be really happy about anyway cuz' 3 characters I want are from there but oh well.

Let's wait a few more weeks.

*cough* Agnes *cough* Sora *cough* Neku Sakuraba *cough*

That's the point. Let's just wait and see if everyone will be right or wrong.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Can you imagine if Crash-Ryu Hayabusa ends up being the new Grinch Leak.

 

[3BitSaurus]

If it was just a Square Enix character, we probably would have seen Geno being mentioned along with those Mii costumes. The fact that he mentions Mallow and Smithy without Geno can only mean good things for him at the moment.

I mean... others said it too, but it's always possible that they just didn't know about the Geno costume.

Oooh, wait a sec! Remember the thing about two SMRPG songs getting a copyright strike at the same time as Megalovania? What if it's because of two mii costumes and that's why there are two SMRPG costumes on the list?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Getting some Grinch flashbacks here, personally.

Nah people aren't being toxic enough for it to be like that with ludicrous reasons to why you deserve to die if you merely consider it's fake or some ****

 

[Nemuresu]

Getting some Grinch flashbacks here, personally.

Grinch would imply it's the case of an "unbeatable" being latched on to while everyone **** on Vergeben and deniers.

This is just a case of two different rumours with their own credentials clashing.

 

[Deleted member]

Can you imagine if Crash-Ryu Hayabusa ends up being the new Grinch Leak.

Ahahahahaha.

Then just wait till Sakurai proves everyone wrong and pulls a surprise character or gives Verg the info. Trust me, there will be salt, no matter who it is.

 

[3BitSaurus]

*cough* Agnes *cough* Sora *cough* Neku Sakuraba *cough*

That's the point. Let's just wait and see if everyone will be right or wrong.

In my case it's Sora, 2B and Geno, but yeah. Basically this.

 

[perfectchaos83]

So my vote is... someone else, though I wouldn't have any particular issues with either Crash or Hayabusa. Overall, I tend to favour characters that will get more interesting discussions going and bring people into series they otherwise would have looked past, so anyone that does that will at least bring something fun to the table.

And this is exactly why I'm a bit wary of popular characters being in the speculation circle. To me, it's much less about marketing and more about Smash being a vehicle to expand one's horizons. Banjo, to me, is the only exception (at least for the fighter's pass). He was there to give a bone to the Smash fans. I've always been of the notion that a typical Smash fan would not like the whole of the Fighter's Pass particularly because I feel the Fighter's Pass purpose was to expand the horizons of the Smash fan and to bring those that do dwell in those horizons to Smash. I feel that Joker, Hero and Terry do that well and I feel it's something FP5 will do too. This is why I'm not really feeling Doom, Ryu or Crash being FP5.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Ahahahahaha.

Then just wait till Sakurai proves everyone wrong and pulls a surprise character or gives Verg the info. Trust me, there will be salt, no matter who it is.

And watch that character be Agumon.

No one saw that coming!

 

[Evil Trapezium]

I mean... others said it too, but it's always possible that they just didn't know about the Geno costume.

Oooh, wait a sec! Remember the thing about two SMRPG songs getting a copyright strike at the same time as Megalovania? What if it's because of two mii costumes and that's why there are two SMRPG costumes on the list?

Well it would be pretty silly to release both Mallow and Smithy with those two songs and not have Geno anywhere, in fact that kind of helps Geno's case of being playable. Besides you could say the same thing about Banjo & Kazooie that they could have been Mii costumes with a remix (One shudders to think if that were the case)

 

[ZaneHitsurugi]

If Hayabusa makes it.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f5PCpVdTI_I

I'ld love for him to have The Shooted, as well.
https://youtu.be/22CyhSRCiuc

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

Who'd win in a fight

Generic Anime Swordsman or Generic Western Gunman

 

[Calamitas]

Nah people aren't being toxic enough for it to be like that with ludicrous reasons to why you deserve to die if you merely consider it's fake or some ****

Give it time. This only just happened.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Well it would be pretty silly to release both Mallow and Smithy with those two songs and not have Geno anywhere, in fact that kind of helps Geno's case of being playable. Besides you could say the same thing about Banjo & Kazooie that they could have been Mii costumes with a remix (One shudders to think if that were the case)

Yeah, but notice how he put Mallow and Smithy side by side in the list - this leads me to think it's one or the other, not both. If this is the case, Geno could still be there as a second costume.

I think regardless of how you see this, these are some very interesting developments...

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Well it would be pretty silly to release both Mallow and Smithy with those two songs and not have Geno anywhere, in fact that kind of helps Geno's case of being playable. Besides you could say the same thing about Banjo & Kazooie that they could have been Mii costumes with a remix (One shudders to think if that were the case)

I mean, I'd consider the fact that the source is currently saying Crash and still hasn't mentioned Geno could mean that Gen is still in legal hell for some reason or isn't playable but a costime again. ****ing wild to see how that goes down

 

[Deleted member]

Even after all this, with so many people arguing right now if it's the "there can only be one" trio, Sakursi would opt for the fourth option: Anyone.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Even after all this, with so many people arguing right now if it's the "there can only be one" trio, Sakursi would opt for the fourth option: Anyone.

Then option 5, Literally Nothing, steps in

 

[Dragon-Eater]

What does everyone think the chances of us getting another "Western" character in Smash Ultimate?
I think the only big Japanese franchise left without is Resident Evil/Biohazard IMO.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Yeah, but notice how he put Mallow and Smithy side by side in the list - this leads me to think it's one or the other, not both. If this is the case, Geno could still be there as a second costume.

I think regardless of how you see this, these are some very interesting developments...

That is true since he put Zero and Protoman separately but the lack of Geno is still something to consider. Maybe Nintendo is doing well in hiding this playable Geno or he could still be a mii costume. I'm just holding out hope not for me but for the Geno fans.

I mean, I'd consider the fact that the source is currently saying Crash and still hasn't mentioned Geno could mean that Gen is still in legal hell for some reason or isn't playable but a costime again. ****ing wild to see how that goes down

I don't understand how Geno would be stuck in legal hell. The only parties who are associated with Geno are Nintendo and Square Enix with Yoko Shimomura handling the music so unless Super Mario RPG had copyrighted stuff from some other party that they have no way of obtaining, I think Geno is safe on the legal front.

 

[perfectchaos83]

What does everyone think the chances of us getting another "Western" character in Smash Ultimate?
I think the only big Japanese franchise left without is Resident Wvil

Low. Mostly because of the Language Barrier and how that just elongates negotiations

 

[Cutie Gwen]

That is true since he put Zero and Protoman separately but the lack of Geno is still something to consider. Maybe Nintendo is doing well in hiding this playable Geno or he could still be a mii costume. I'm just holding out hope not for me but for the Geno fans.



I don't understand how Geno would be stuck in legal hell. The only parties who are associated with Geno are Nintendo and Square Enix with Yoko Shimomura handling the music so unless Super Mario RPG had copyrighted stuff from some other party that they have no way of obtaining, I think Geno is safe on the legal front.

Square saying "No we don't want him playable have whitewashed 2P instead" legal issues

 

[Dragon-Eater]

Low. Mostly because of the Language Barrier and how that just elongates negotiations

I don't know if the language barrier is that big a deal. I mean translators exist

 

[perfectchaos83]

I don't know if the language barrier is that big a deal. I mean translators exist

When you're dealing with legal wording, I'd imagine translating takes more than "on the fly" translations. Also, I'm pretty sure Grant already said that correspondence was slow because of the Language barrier.

 

[Deleted member]

What does everyone think the chances of us getting another "Western" character in Smash Ultimate?
I think the only big Japanese franchise left without is Resident Evil/Biohazard IMO.

Pretty much mid-tier. Banjo was the "testing the waters" phase, then when he took the net by storm, everyone was fair game.

We'll almost get at least one Western rep next pass, most likely Doomguy. If he can't get in now, he'll get in next year.

 

[The Foff]

What does everyone think the final dlc character will be in terms of their actual chance and credible leaks?

I’m thinking Ryu Hayabusa front Ninja Gaiden.. he’s a fairly well known character who’d make a lot of money, his franchise has a huge legacy, lots of people are pining for him and there’s quite a few leaks that are at least somewhat credible saying that he’s the last one.

I dunno, he’s just seems very likely to me

 

[Plank08]

Oh my god how the **** have I never realized Doom Slayer kinda looks like Gypsy Danger from Pacific Rim that's one of my favourite movies. Shame there was never any sequels

ACTUALLY there’s this really obscure straight to dvd sequel called Pacific Rim 2: Dumbster Fire, you should really check it out!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

ACTUALLY there’s this really obscure straight to dvd sequel called Pacific Rim 2: Dumbster Fire, you should really check it out!

Haha, silly Plank, everyone knows Del Toro can't make bad movies, what on earth are you talking about?

What does everyone think the final dlc character will be in terms of their actual chance and credible leaks?

I’m thinking Ryu Hayabusa front Ninja Gaiden.. he’s a fairly well known character who’d make a lot of money, his franchise has a huge legacy, lots of people are pining for him and there’s quite a few leaks that are at least somewhat credible saying that he’s the last one.

I dunno, he’s just seems very likely to me

See, the leaks thing doesn't work as while Hayabusa consistently finds himself in leaks, the rest is inconsistent as hell

 

[Deleted member]

See, the leaks thing doesn't work as while Hayabusa consistently finds himself in leaks, the rest is inconsistent as hell

It's like pre-Ultimate Ridley all over again.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Still gotta wait on Vergeben's last word on this until we truly know.

 

[The Foff]

See, the leaks thing doesn't work as while Hayabusa consistently finds himself in leaks, the rest is inconsistent as hell

That is true, he is very often in leaks but I feel that could be a sign that he has a chance for a spot, the fact that he’s always just in leaks to me says that he’s a character with a genuine chance, if he’s appearing in leaks more than any other character than surely there’s a reason. If any other character were to be in the same situation, (being that they appear in leaks constantly) than I would say the same thing. But who knows, i could very well be wrong, it’s just my opinion after all.

 

[RyanCE]

This is Ryce from ResetEra. I haven't visited this site in years, but a friend linked me to this discussion and I just wanted to say that I don't know anything about Ultimate's DLC -- I'm only speculating.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

What does everyone think the chances of us getting another "Western" character in Smash Ultimate?
I think the only big Japanese franchise left without is Resident Evil/Biohazard IMO.

I'd say that the chances of it happening rise with every iconic Japanese character getting in. Sooner or later Sakurai will eventually run out of Japanese icons to add and will have to move on to the west.

Square saying "No we don't want him playable have whitewashed 2P instead" legal issues

Fair enough and there is a good chance that might be the case. It's just that Geno talk is going around from both sides and the lack of mii costume is just interesting. I'll just leave it at that.