Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Opossum]

Contrary to what you may think, the vast majority of people who buy Smash are not into heavy roster speculation and are just satisfied with having Pikachu fight Kirby.

I misread that as Heavy Lobster speculation and was left wondering what I'd missed in the Kirby fanbase since the last time I checked.

 

[Deleted member]

I misread that as Heavy Lobster speculation and was left wondering what I'd missed in the Kirby fanbase since the last time I checked.

An armored lobster tank versus a king's lowly butler with a spear. Who wins?

 

[Nquoid]

At least 12 people voted for Banjo & Kazooie as most likely new characters. Can't tell if trolling or they're just so used to answering that...

 

[Ridrool64]

A little late, but I don't think Kiryu has very much fan demand anywhere, which is why I don't think he has the edge on Arle. Comparing their rankings on polls (Kiryu rarely, if ever ranks), comparing their Smashboards thread lengths, and even looking at stray Twitter requests, he's lagging behind pretty bad. Yakuza IS getting promoted pretty heavily, though, and while I've never met a person outside the Smash fandom who'd ask for Arle, I've also never seen the same of Kiryu. So I dunno how much it is "Arle beats Kiryu for fan demand, even in the west" and how much is "fan demand in the Smash fandom only".

You might have Joker as an argument, but Persona 5 curb stomped the **** out of series records and became Atlus' personal piggy bank. Joker also, I believe, had ranked and beaten them in want a bunch. Just not in chance. We also don't know if Sakurai cares much for either of these, or what their directors would think.

Shadow has both of them on-speed dial, but that's mostly on an Echo Fighter (we also have no idea if Assists will be promoted). Tails is a DLC Mii Costume, I doubt they'd sell those twice. Knuckles is both. That leaves Dr. Eggman as the leading Sonic character to fight against them. He's not a boss, an Assist, or a Mii Costume. Unless we get another SEGA character (assuming Akira and Jacky come back with Terry), the ship on SEGA Mii Costumes has sailed. Him being a Spirit only matters for the immediate next character spot.

Between these three (Arle, Kiryu, Eggman) who sounds like the likeliest?

 

[TheCJBrine]

Contrary to what you may think, the vast majority of people who buy Smash are not into heavy roster speculation and are just satisfied with having Pikachu fight Kirby.

It’s still less than some past polls to be fair. Much less in some cases.

And some Smash moveset, etc. videos’ likes on YouTube.

 

[Just a random scrub]

At least 12 people voted for Banjo & Kazooie as most likely new characters. Can't tell if trolling or they're just so used to answering that...

I also saw some results saying King K Rool and Ridley were the most likely newcomers, and even saw somebody vote Luigi. I myself was tempted to vote Mario as the most likely newcomer.

 

[Deleted member]

I also saw some results saying King K Rool and Ridley were the most likely newcomers, and even saw somebody vote Luigi. I myself was tempted to vote Mario as the most likely newcomer.

But Mario's not happening, though. He has no personality and would just be another anime brawler dude.

 

[Captain Fun]

Heavy Weapons Guy is legitimately a great idea, and TF2 is in my top 5 favorite games of all time.

Having said that, I’m actually baffled by him ranking this high. Even accounting for how inaccurate fan polls can be... just... how?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I misread that as Heavy Lobster speculation and was left wondering what I'd missed in the Kirby fanbase since the last time I checked.

We're mad as Heavy Lobster was planned in Robobot but ultimately disregarded as Robobot has plenty of fanservice which is ****ING IRRITATING THERE'S EVEN A LEVEL LAYOUT IDENTICAL TO THE CHASE SECTION BEFORE YOU FIGHT THE BLOODY THING GAHHH

 

[Just a random scrub]

But Mario's not happening, though. He has no personality and would just be another anime brawler dude.

Why do we even need this guy when Luigi is better in every way? Maybe Mario could be his echo fighter or something

 

[Deleted member]

We're mad as Heavy Lobster was planned in Robobot but ultimately disregarded as Robobot has plenty of fanservice which is ****ING IRRITATING THERE'S EVEN A LEVEL LAYOUT IDENTICAL TO THE CHASE SECTION BEFORE YOU FIGHT THE BLOODY THING GAHHH

The virgin Heavy Lobster vs the Chad Queen Sectonia

 

[Curious Villager]

Damn Layton BARELY made it to the top 20 :/

Tbf I'm kind of pleasantly surprised he made it that high up at all. It's nice to know there are still some Layton friends hanging in there...

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Why do we even need this guy when Luigi is better in every way? Maybe Mario could be his echo fighter or something

Why doesn't anyone give Wii Fit Trainer some love? She would be a great character for Smash Bros and she definitely needs a new Wii fit game. /s

 

[Deleted member]

A little late, but I don't think Kiryu has very much fan demand anywhere, which is why I don't think he has the edge on Arle. Comparing their rankings on polls (Kiryu rarely, if ever ranks), comparing their Smashboards thread lengths, and even looking at stray Twitter requests, he's lagging behind pretty bad. Yakuza IS getting promoted pretty heavily, though, and while I've never met a person outside the Smash fandom who'd ask for Arle, I've also never seen the same of Kiryu. So I dunno how much it is "Arle beats Kiryu for fan demand, even in the west" and how much is "fan demand in the Smash fandom only".

You might have Joker as an argument, but Persona 5 curb stomped the **** out of series records and became Atlus' personal piggy bank. Joker also, I believe, had ranked and beaten them in want a bunch. Just not in chance. We also don't know if Sakurai cares much for either of these, or what their directors would think.

If fan demand was the main deciding factor for all the characters in the Fighter Pass, Terry Bogard wouldn't have been DLC considering there weren't a lot of people requesting/predicting him, unless of course you have a counterpoint to that.

 

[Ridrool64]

Arle's in 24th place. You know what? It's perfect. I wouldn't change it.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Sure, that lady's hair is purple and their garb is undoubtedly Japanese fantasy

You know there's real people with purple hair right? Hair dye is a thing that exists.

Although the level of realism is irrelevant (there are anime that use that style)

Well, see, that's where it turns into an argument, because a lot of people would disagree with that. Because the definition of what "anime" means is a highly debated topic.

What benefit would rigging the poll do for anybody? Papa dosen't seem like the type of person who'd even consider that.

I don't think they're suggesting that the poll is rigged. I think they're saying that PapaGenos' fanbase is preinclined to being Geno fans.

while I've never met a person outside the Smash fandom who'd ask for Arle, I've also never seen the same of Kiryu.

I've seen Kiryu mentioned as a wanted Smash character in facebook groups like GiantBomb's. I've literally never seen Arle mentioned in any context, Smash or otherwise, outside of this forum.

 

[Calamitas]

Why do we even need this guy when Luigi is better in every way? Maybe Mario could be his echo fighter or something

Personally I'm still hoping that Pikachu makes it in one day somehow. It's just such a shame that Smash always goes for final starter evolutions. I mean, sure, Charmander's final evolution, Cyndaquil's final evolution, Treeko's final evolution, Piplup's final evolution, Froakie's final evolution, Litten's final evolution and Grookey's final evolution are nice and all, but I'd like to see some other Pokémon for once, y'know?

 

[Just a random scrub]

Why doesn't anyone give Wii Fit Trainer some love? She would be a great character for Smash Bros and she definitely needs a new Wii fit game. /s

Boi, Wii Fit has NO moveset potential. We have ****** who breath fire, heroes with swords, people who swallow other people, and lords of darkness, and Wii Fit... does yoga poses? Man, GIT that out of here. In Smash Bros, only Epic Heroes fight.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Damn Layton BARELY made it to the top 20 :/
Honestly I wouldn't even count Waluigi and Isaac though, I personally believe AT will remain ATs anyway, but whatever...
Kinda surprised Doom Slayer isn't higher than Shantae though.

Problem with Doom Slayer is that people put in Doom, Doom Guy, Doomguy, Doom Slayer, and Doom Marine, and I found all those from a quick skim through the data. So yeah, this data is definitely not conclusive.

 

[Deleted member]

Why doesn't anyone give Wii Fit Trainer some love? She would be a great character for Smash Bros and she definitely needs a new Wii fit game. /s

Wii Fit would be funny as hell. It would never happen though because it's a bit too silly and niche for Smash. She'd make a great assist trophy.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Steve votes also range from just “Steve” to clarifying he’s Minecraft’s Steve though idk how they would’ve counted his.

I mean, if they searched it right, it’s probably fine, I guess.

This poll data also seems to be less than the reported 7k votes in total but idk.

 

[Just a random scrub]

Problem with Doom Slayer is that people put in Doom, Doom Guy, Doomguy, Doom Slayer, and Doom Marine, and I found all those from a quick skim through the data. So yeah, this data is definitely not conclusive.

Isn't really related, but seeing this post reminded me, out of all the people who voted Ryu Hayabusa, a staggering amount of them couldn't get his last name right. Like, 40+ typos on his last name. I mean, we have Google for a reason, people.

Personally I'm still hoping that Pikachu makes it in one day somehow. It's just such a shame that Smash always goes for final starter evolutions. I mean, sure, Charmander's final evolution, Cyndaquil's final evolution, Treeko's final evolution, Piplup's final evolution, Froakie's final evolution, Litten's final evolution and Grookey's final evolution are nice and all, but I'd like to see some other Pokémon for once, y'know?

Boi, what is this cringe? You only put in RELEVANT FULLY EVOLVED POKEMON CHADS. Not debased NON-FINAL EVOLUTION 'Chu. We need to clear up the Pokedex and give Sword and Shield as much representation as possible before we get to the lame unpopular weak mouses. You will play RAICHU and you will LIKE IT!!! Now go to the time out corner, Jimmy.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Wii Fit would be funny as hell. It would never happen though because it's a bit too silly and niche for Smash. She'd make a great assist trophy.

I mean, you guys joke, but Fit Trainer remains an awful pick and SHOULD have only been an AT.

 

[Ninjaed]

A little late, but I don't think Kiryu has very much fan demand anywhere, which is why I don't think he has the edge on Arle. Comparing their rankings on polls (Kiryu rarely, if ever ranks), comparing their Smashboards thread lengths, and even looking at stray Twitter requests, he's lagging behind pretty bad. Yakuza IS getting promoted pretty heavily, though, and while I've never met a person outside the Smash fandom who'd ask for Arle, I've also never seen the same of Kiryu. So I dunno how much it is "Arle beats Kiryu for fan demand, even in the west" and how much is "fan demand in the Smash fandom only".

Thing is, people don't always know who they want. Few people ever talked about Palutena or Joker, now look where they are. Or more recently, Terry. Vocal fan demand is one thing but not the only one, neither is it the most prominent one.

Between these three (Arle, Kiryu, Eggman) who sounds like the likeliest?

Dr Eggman > Kiryu > Arle

The one thing against Eggman is that he's not from a new franchise, a new video game world, which seems to be what they're going for.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Boi, Wii Fit has NO moveset potential. We have ****** who breath fire, heroes with swords, people who swallow other people, and lords of darkness, and Wii Fit... does yoga poses? Man, GIT that out of here. In Smash Bros, only Epic Heroes fight.

Sh-shut up! She has the best moveset ever! She can do so many yoga poses and beat up those stupid anime swordsmen! Plus the developer of Wii Fit says it's entirely possible for her to get in and Sakurai has stated multiple times that he's interested in making a moveset for her! She is the most epic character ever! Y-you don't know w-what you're talking about!

Wii Fit would be funny as hell. It would never happen though because it's a bit too silly and niche for Smash. She'd make a great assist trophy.

IT WILL HAPPEN! She will one day get in and when she does, I will be combo-ing Lucina to oblivion! She didn't deserve to be in Smash!

 

[PeridotGX]

The Sabi Polls numbers are basically in via counting from the spreadsheet, though now is just checking for errors, incorrect spelling, vote stuffing, etc.

Here is a chart someone made!

I guess Bandana Dee isn't even in the top ten anymore.

at least he's the second most popular first party.

 

[Deleted member]

I mean, you guys joke, but Fit Trainer remains an awful pick and SHOULD have only been an AT.

Hard disagree mate. That **** was funny as Hell in Smash 4 and she plays alright, if a bit atypical. A perfect casual pick.

 

[Ridrool64]

Wii Fit does feel a little like filler to us, since the Wii Fit fanbase and Smash fanbase on a venn diagram are two separate circles, but for casual players? She's one of the most iconic, legendary characters. She's earned her spot.

 

[Nquoid]

Messed around with the google poll, no where near close to anything final results and a lot of answers that need cleaning up some more, but here's how the top 6 most likely shook out (obviously I'm not the official be all and end all, so these will be superseded I'm sure):

DOOM - 1060
Ryu Hayabusa - 713
Geno- 712
Crash- 680
Minecraft Steve - 332
Sora - 307

 

[NintenZ]

You know the more and more I think about it the more I realize Rex is a pretty mid choice for Smash.

I mean I’ll probably be excited for him if he gets announced on the basis that it’s more Xenoblade content we’d be getting, but there’s just so many other better options.

He doesn’t really stand out aesthetically much from Shulk, only that he’s blue, has brown hair, and is more exaggerated, and in terms of abilities not only does he have foresight thanks to Mythra but he’s also a traditional sword-user, just like Shulk, and while there are a few things he would do differently I imagine he’d have a lot of similarities to other characters in general. (Like Anchor Shot for example would be a lot like Joker’s Grappling Hook).

Tbh I’m more neutral at this rate on Rex than anything, but tbh I’d rather have someone who’d be more diverse like Elma or Fiora. But hey more Xenoblade is always welcome in my book.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Watch that we next get Sandbag or an Tetris Block.

 

[Jocario Zero]

I had this weird dream once where the pink Bob-Omb from Super Mario 64 and a Koopa Paratroopa where reveiled as a Duo-Character like .

I have no idea how this would work but i want this to happen now.

 

[Deleted member]

here's the raw data

I'm going to be generous, and say that each vote is a serious vote, no-one voted twice, and I'm going to round the total number of votes up to 7,000.

Nintendo are basing fan demand of the Smash Ballot, which was during the lifespan of Smash 4. Nintendo hasn't published the results of the Ballot, so I'm going to assume that only half of the people who own Smash for Wii U (5,360,000, 3DS sold 9,5200,000 so I'm being generous to Sabi's poll) voted in the ballot.

2,680,000/7000 is 382.857142.
100/382 is 0.2611940298507462686567164179104477

This means Sabi's poll is accurate to about 0.26% of the fanbase when being generous as I have here, in other words this poll means absolutely nothing and you should ignore it like you should with every other fan poll in existence.

 

[Curious Villager]

here's the raw data

I'm going to be generous, and say that each vote is a serious vote, no-one voted twice, and I'm going to round the total number of votes up to 7,000.

Nintendo are basing fan demand of the Smash Ballot, which was during the lifespan of Smash 4. Nintendo hasn't published the results of the Ballot, so I'm going to assume that only half of the people who own Smash for Wii U (5,360,000, 3DS sold 9,5200,000 so I'm being generous to Sabi's poll) voted in the ballot.

2,680,000/7000 is 382.857142.
100/382 is 0.2611940298507462686567164179104477

This means Sabi's poll is accurate to about 0.26% of the fanbase when being generous as I have here, in other words this poll means absolutely nothing and you should ignore it like you should with every other fan poll in existence.

Didn't Sakurai reveal that the fighter ballot only had about half a million (or was it a million and a half?) of votes, at least if I recall correctly, the number was surprisingly small eitherway.

But yeah, fan polls are mainly to see what a specific group of fans are interested in, it doesn't really reflect the desire of even 1% of the playerbase of the game.

 

[Guynamednelson]

or was it a million and a half?

I thought it was 1.8 million, so close to this.

 

[KillerCage]

2,680,000/7000 is 382.857142.
100/382 is 0.2611940298507462686567164179104477

This means Sabi's poll is accurate to about 0.26% of the fanbase when being generous as I have here, in other words this poll means absolutely nothing and you should ignore it like you should with every other fan poll in existence.

Sorry for being a math nazi, but 0.26% is erroneous.
To get percent, you have to multiply what you got for (100/382) by 100.
The actual percent should be roughly 26.1%.

 

[ErenJager]

Shocked that a poll conducted in part by someone called PapaGenos has Geno on the top by a fairly big margin.

It's almost as if his discord or youtube followers spammed it or something, no.. that would never happen.

Side note, I think all fan polls are bogus, i've never voted on any of them myself.
I think some people who are fanatics waste a day spamming their favourite character to sway results.
Yes those people exist.

 

[NobleClamtasm]

This means Sabi's poll is accurate to about 0.26% of the fanbase when being generous as I have here, in other words this poll means absolutely nothing and you should ignore it like you should with every other fan poll in existence.

I'm going to start by saying that in regards to the poll being accurate to the grand scheme of things, I agree with you 100%. However, no matter how bad these polls are - they absolutely matter, as they shape the discourse of roster discussion. We've already seen it with the JPN/US/EU Twitter "poll". The methodology behind that was completely pants-on-head stupid, yet the image still spread like a wildfire, and is still being discussed in Japanese communities. It's how bandwagons start. This is how relatively obscure characters like Geno gain such a huge following - from years of overhyped roster speculation. Remember, all it takes is for a single image to shape a person's entire perspective.

 

[Plank08]

I’m new here and I just wanted to say that Sackboy is my most wanted and I definitely feel he really deserves a spot in smash, he was the PS3s icon after all.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

The virgin Heavy Lobster vs the Chad Queen Sectonia

Queen Sectonia would make a pretty cool boss. Magolor and Magolor Soul would be my picks for another Kirby Boss though. Just imagine the final section where you have to land a bunch of Final Smashes on him. It'd be so cool or hilarious depending on who you play as.

(Like Anchor Shot for example would be a lot like Joker’s Grappling Hook).

I thought it'd just be a guaranteed tripping move.
EDIT: Though the Joker grappling hook thing does make sense since Rex doesn't really have any jumping moves and neither Pyro nor Mythra have the leaping ability.
EDIT EDIT: Might be able to use Roc's wind geyser thingy ability though.