Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[TheTuninator]

Admittedly that was jumping the gun. Each phase of Ultimate's development seems to drop what the fandom considers two "hype bombs" (E3 2018 and August 8, Joker and Hero/Banjo dual reveal), then it goes "downhill". And now we've gotten our second "hype bomb".

This kind of thinking is predicated upon the idea that everyone in the fanbase has the same gaming background and gets excited for the same characters, though, which just isn't true. For one example, a lot of people here consider FE reps "hype killers" since they want new series in instead, but FE3H sold around the same number of copies as Persona 5. Byleth was probably much more exciting for a lot of people than Joker, Hero or Banjo. It's all about perspective.

 

[kirbsmash]

This kind of thinking is predicated upon the idea that everyone in the fanbase has the same gaming background and gets excited for the same characters, though, which just isn't true. For one example, a lot of people here consider FE reps "hype killers" since they want new series in instead, but FE3H sold around the same number of copies as Persona 5. Byleth was probably much more exciting for a lot of people than Joker, Hero or Banjo. It's all about perspective.

Like while a lot of people find steve boring I find him hype?

 

[SharkLord]

Like while a lot of people find steve boring I find him hype?

Actually that seems to be the popular opinion

 

[CosmicQuark]

Since Sephiroth's reveal, I've been toying with the idea of going back to my idea of creating a Smash Ultimate Deluxe with all the new unique characters. Not sure if Sephiroth makes that less or more likely, but I was finally able to recreate the box art background to a point I was sort of satisfied. Still got a lot of work, but I have until the last character is revealed to perfect it. xD

Spoiler: Smash Ultimate Deluxe

Mural renders by ElevenZM.

EDIT: Fixed to a version with Terry.

 

[Guynamednelson]

This kind of thinking is predicated upon the idea that everyone in the fanbase has the same gaming background and gets excited for the same characters, though, which just isn't true. For one example, a lot of people here consider FE reps "hype killers" since they want new series in instead, but FE3H sold around the same number of copies as Persona 5. Byleth was probably much more exciting for a lot of people than Joker, Hero or Banjo. It's all about perspective.

Like while a lot of people find steve boring I find him hype?

I'm generally referring to what gets the most views on Youtube/Twitter with a favorable like/dislike ratio. Steve was one of two "hype bombs" for FP2 alongside Sephiroth because of how big Minecraft is, while the post-"hype bomb" characters in FP1 were Terry, who just didn't attract the same amount of attention as the rest of the pass (I was interested but still), and Byleth, whose reveal is one of Nintendo's most disliked videos.

 

[InkThinks]

Thoughts on this video
(1) Sephiroth Killed The Smash Speculation Scene... And That's Okay - YouTube

Hey that's me. Needless to say, I agree lol. If I were to add something to what I said here it would be that I DO think that there is a place for fan rules. I think that they should be used to develop one's own speculation model. I think if we stop basing speculation on any sort of pattern then we truly are just shooting in the dark. I think the current methods we are using as a community are ineffective, but I also think that there is a time and place estimating sales, popularity, etc... I just think it all needs to be reevaluated. thanks for sharing!

 

[TheTuninator]

Like while a lot of people find steve boring I find him hype?

Indeed. Some characters/series are clearly more popular overall than others, of course, and this distinction is particularly sharp in FP2 with Steve and Sephiroth vs. Min Min, but once you climb down from the S-tier of popularity, who is more "hype" than whom becomes rather muddled.

 

[SharkLord]

Since Sephiroth's reveal, I've been toying with the idea of going back to my idea of creating a Smash Ultimate Deluxe with all the new unique characters. Not sure if Sephiroth makes that less or more likely, but I was finally able to recreate the box art background to a point I was sort of satisfied. Still got a lot of work, but I have until the last character is revealed to perfect it. xD

Spoiler: Smash Ultimate Deluxe

Mural renders by ElevenZM.

Either I'm blind or there is no Terry

 

[Lamperouge]

Chief will not be a disappointment if he is the last rep, that is the only character.

He'd be a disappointment to me because I don't play Halo.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Either I'm blind or there is no Terry

Thanks for spotting that! Terry was in a weird position the first go-around. This is what I get for not triple checking.

EDIT: Fixed it. If you spot any more errors, feel free to let me know!

 

[TheTuninator]

I'm generally referring to what gets the most views on Youtube/Twitter with a favorable like/dislike ratio. Steve was one of two "hype bombs" for FP2 alongside Sephiroth because of how big Minecraft is, while the post-"hype bomb" characters in FP1 were Terry, who just didn't attract the same amount of attention as the rest of the pass (I was interested but still), and Byleth, whose reveal is one of Nintendo's most disliked videos.

See, though, when you get into parsing these metrics, things get very tricky. Sure, Banjo has a better like/dislike ratio, but Banjo's reveal demo with Sakurai has only 1.4 million views compared to 3.3 million with Byleth (over twice as much!) and Terry's has 2.9 million. So, given these metrics, are we still confident in saying that Banjo was way more "hype" than those two? I wouldn't say so. It's very easy to get caught in the trap of thinking that the general perspective of Smashboards reflects that of the entire fanbase, but it's simply not true.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Sure, Banjo has a better like/dislike ratio, but Banjo's reveal demo with Sakurai has only 1.4 million views compared to 3.3 million with Byleth (over twice as much!) and Terry's has 2.9 million.

That's not taking into consideration views on Banjo's trailer, and how views for the Sakurai presentation might've been absorbed by views for the Nintendo Direct on that day due to it being streamed back to back.

 

[SharkLord]

See, though, when you get into parsing these metrics, things get very tricky. Sure, Banjo has a better like/dislike ratio, but Banjo's reveal demo with Sakurai has only 1.4 million views compared to 3.3 million with Byleth (over twice as much!) and Terry's has 2.9 million. So, given these metrics, are we still confident in saying that Banjo was way more "hype" than those two? I wouldn't say so. It's very easy to get caught in the trap of thinking that the general perspective of Smashboards reflects that of the entire fanbase, but it's simply not true.

There's also the different variable to take into account; Byleth was revealed in their presentation, while Banjo had been announced at E3 months prior. As such, Byleth's overview got more attention.

 

[TheTuninator]

That's not taking into consideration views on Banjo's trailer, and how views for the Sakurai presentation might've been absorbed by views for the Nintendo Direct on that day due to it being streamed back to back.

Sure! I'm not arguing that these numbers mean that Terry or Byleth were more hype than Banjo. My point is, rather, the opposite - that aside from the clear S-listers like Sephiroth or Steve (or Hero specifically with regards to the JP audience) I don't think that it's anywhere near as easy as people may think to say who was "hype" and who was a "disappointment".

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Like while a lot of people find steve boring I find him hype?

I don't know how anyone would find Steve boring. Dumb and unfitting perhaps, but boring?

See, though, when you get into parsing these metrics, things get very tricky. Sure, Banjo has a better like/dislike ratio, but Banjo's reveal demo with Sakurai has only 1.4 million views compared to 3.3 million with Byleth (over twice as much!) and Terry's has 2.9 million. So, given these metrics, are we still confident in saying that Banjo was way more "hype" than those two? I wouldn't say so.

But at the same time, Byleth's trailer could have gotten more views because people cared enough to click the link and dislike, as well as the whole controversy going to social media and making more people aware of it.

 

[TheTuninator]

There's also the different variable to take into account; Byleth was revealed in their presentation, while Banjo had been announced at E3 months prior. As such, Byleth's overview got more attention.

While this is true, Hero's demo also has almost 2x the number of views as Banjo's. Again, I don't mean to suggest that we can use these stats to empirically prove who's more popular. I'm simply pointing to them (since these videos were brought up by others in regards to proving who's more "hype") to show that it's not so clear-cut as people here often assume based on the loose consensus of a few thousand people.

 

[7NATOR]

Hey that's me. Needless to say, I agree lol. If I were to add something to what I said here it would be that I DO think that there is a place for fan rules. I think that they should be used to develop one's own speculation model. I think if we stop basing speculation on any sort of pattern then we truly are just shooting in the dark. I think the current methods we are using as a community are ineffective, but I also think that there is a time and place estimating sales, popularity, etc... I just think it all needs to be reevaluated. thanks for sharing!

First, I just want to say you have some of the Best Smash speculation videos on Youtube

Second, I think in regards to Reevaluating, I think Fan rules aren't bad, but I think that people really should have some good reasonings for why they Believe what they believe

I think why people get frustrated at Fan rules is that alot of the Time it's used to Shut down discussion on a Character easily, and because of that we don't actually discuss the Merits of a Character. This happens to Assist Characters alot for example. I think also because Alot of the time people's basis on Fan Rules has logic that is either not that sound with What the game says otherwise, or just straight up Debunked

If People want to be right and use Fan rules, then they got to get to the Root of why that Fan Rule actually means something. just basing something of Precedent, when Precedent has failed many times is not the best thing to do. That's asll

 

[Momotsuki]

Whether you like it or not, KOS-MOS does make sense as post-hype-bomb fighter. She's still being discounted over here, and I think that's a little funny.

Also in regards to fan rules and patterns... no. Sorry, they're not worth a whole lot. Shoot in the dark first, then evaulate the picks you made, and discard them if they fail to hold up to gut feeling. Trying too hard to be right is an easy way to end up superbly wrong.

 

[Sk3tchy]

Hey that's me. Needless to say, I agree lol. If I were to add something to what I said here it would be that I DO think that there is a place for fan rules. I think that they should be used to develop one's own speculation model. I think if we stop basing speculation on any sort of pattern then we truly are just shooting in the dark. I think the current methods we are using as a community are ineffective, but I also think that there is a time and place estimating sales, popularity, etc... I just think it all needs to be reevaluated. thanks for sharing!

People often mistake fan rules for several things in my personal opinion. Also, I don't think of stuff that goes against fan rules as really "breaking" them, but more changing the rule book each and every time, since we're essentially going off patterns that Nintendo gives us, despite them being nearly impossible to actually guess.

 

[InkThinks]

First, I just want to say you have some of the Best Smash speculation videos on Youtube

Second, I think in regards to Reevaluating, I think Fan rules aren't bad, but I think that people really should have some good reasonings for why they Believe what they believe

I think why people get frustrated at Fan rules is that alot of the Time it's used to Shut down discussion on a Character easily, and because of that we don't actually discuss the Merits of a Character. This happens to Assist Characters alot for example. I think also because Alot of the time people's basis on Fan Rules has logic that is either not that sound with What the game says otherwise, or just straight up Debunked

If People want to be right and use Fan rules, then they got to get to the Root of why that Fan Rule actually means something. just basing something of Precedent, when Precedent has failed many times is not the best thing to do. That's asll

Thanks so much for the compliment! I absolutely agree with your take here

 

[Arcanir]

See, though, when you get into parsing these metrics, things get very tricky. Sure, Banjo has a better like/dislike ratio, but Banjo's reveal demo with Sakurai has only 1.4 million views compared to 3.3 million with Byleth (over twice as much!) and Terry's has 2.9 million. So, given these metrics, are we still confident in saying that Banjo was way more "hype" than those two? I wouldn't say so. It's very easy to get caught in the trap of thinking that the general perspective of Smashboards reflects that of the entire fanbase, but it's simply not true.

A couple things to note:

Banjo's reveal trailer and showcase were separate, Byleth's was combined, which skewers view counts since one is going to be people tuning in to learn who the new character is on top of how they play instead of one or the other. With that in mind, consider the views of the reveal trailers for both characters. While Banjo's showcase had only 1.4M, his reveal trailer has 4.8M. Byleth's reveal and showcase, despite being combined, only pulled 3.3M as you said. To add to this, other sites had the reveal up for both characters and still had large gaps in the number of views. Gamespot for instance had Banjo pulling 3.3M, while Byleth only pulled 530K.

 

[TheTuninator]

A couple things to note:

Banjo's reveal trailer and showcase were separate, Byleth's was combined, which skewers view counts since one is going to be people tuning in to learn who the new character is on top of how they play instead of one or the other. With that in mind, consider the views of the reveal trailers for both characters. While Banjo's showcase had only 1.4M, his reveal trailer has 4.8M. Byleth's reveal and showcase, despite being combined, only pulled 3.3M as you said. To add to this, other sites had the reveal up for both characters and still had large gaps in the number of views. Gamespot for instance had Banjo pulling 3.3M, while Byleth only pulled 530K.

All valid points! Like I said, I'm not trying to argue that Byleth was more "hype" than Banjo, just that I don't agree with framing 'hype' vs 'not hype' based on consensus in these kinds of communities, which are not representative of the broader fanbase.

Like, if Nintendo didn't think that a lot of people were going to be excited for each and every one of these characters and buy them, they wouldn't be making them, right?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Chief will not be a disappointment if he is the last rep, that is the only character.

He would be a disappointment to anyone who's never owned or played an Xbox, which is most of Japan.

 

[RileyXY1]

He would be a disappointment to anyone who's never owned or played an Xbox, which is most of Japan.

Yeah, and I don't know if a third party characters would get two reps in a single pass.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Like, if Nintendo didn't think that a lot of people were going to be excited for each and every one of these characters and buy them, they wouldn't be making them, right?

Not necessarily. Byleth's inclusion was purely for marketing purposes, and while they knew he wouldn't be very popular, at least amongst the fans, they also knew he would sell well anyway because it's a Super Smash Bros. character.

Heck, their preorder incentive was a freaking Piranha Plant. It's clear they know one or two not-so-popular characters isn't going to matter in the grand scheme of things.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

they knew he would sell well anyway because it's a Super Smash Bros. character.

I think this is something important to remember with any character. Pretty much anyone would sell on the basis that they're Smash DLC. So yes, Scoliosis Jones I believe that includes Pepsi Man lol

 

[RileyXY1]

Not necessarily. Byleth's inclusion was purely for marketing purposes, and while they knew he wouldn't be very popular, at least amongst the fans, they knew he would sell well anyway because it's a Super Smash Bros. character.

Heck, their preorder incentive was a freaking Piranha Plant. It's clear they know one or two not-so-popular characters isn't going to matter in the grand scheme of things.

Byleth was chosen because Nintendo wanted "a character from a game that people were playing right now", and Sakurai just so happened to be playing Three Houses at the time. Piranha Plant was intended to be the "surprise character" of Ultimate.

 

[I.D.]

Byleth was chosen because Nintendo wanted "a character from a game that people were playing right now", and Sakurai just so happened to be playing Three Houses at the time.

Please tell me this is a joke post

 

[TheTuninator]

Not necessarily. Byleth's inclusion was purely for marketing purposes, and while they knew he wouldn't be very popular, at least amongst the fans, they also knew he would sell well anyway because it's a Super Smash Bros. character.

Heck, their preorder incentive was a freaking Piranha Plant. It's clear they know one or two not-so-popular characters isn't going to matter in the grand scheme of things.

See, here's where I disagree a bit. Again, FE3H sold about as many copies as Persona 5, and performed very well overall relative to other first-party titles. The impetus to essentially disregard out of hand the idea that a character from one of Nintendo's biggest hits at the time could actually be a popular inclusion speaks to the blinkered mindset you often see in speculation communities like these, where people are frankly sometimes a bit out of touch. Nintendo is out to make money, plain and simple. They're not going to include anyone whom they think won't make them money, and if they do think somebody will make them money despite roster speculation communities believing that character is unpopular, it's worth considering who's likelier to be right: the multinational billion-dollar corporation with extensive market research, or a relatively small group of people posting on message boards.

 

[I.D.]

See, here's where I disagree a bit. Again, FE3H sold about as many copies as Persona 5, and performed very well overall relative to other first-party titles. The impetus to essentially disregard out of hand the idea that a character from one of Nintendo's biggest hits at the time could actually be a popular inclusion speaks to the blinkered mindset you often see in speculation communities like these, where people are frankly sometimes a bit out of touch. Nintendo is out to make money, plain and simple. They're not going to include anyone whom they think won't make them money, and if they do think somebody will make them money despite roster speculation communities believing that character is unpopular, it's worth considering who's likelier to be right: the multinational billion-dollar corporation with extensive market research, or a relatively small group of people posting on message boards.

FE3H had sold 0 copies in total at the time they decided on Byleth's inclusion.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Byleth was chosen because Nintendo wanted "a character from a game that people were playing right now", and Sakurai just so happened to be playing Three Houses at the time. Piranha Plant was intended to be the "surprise character" of Ultimate.

Just to clarify for you, he was given a prerelease version of the game so he could figure out a character. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if FP 11 had a similar reason behind their inclusion, so that we get an early-mid 2021 Nintendo character as the final DLC.

 

[TheTuninator]

FE3H had sold 0 copies in total at the time they decided on Byleth's inclusion.

Right, which is where the market research comes in. FE3H was clearly expected to be a success building upon the foundation laid by Awakening and Fates.

 

[RileyXY1]

Just to clarify for you, he was given a prerelease version of the game so he could figure out a character. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if FP 11 had a similar reason behind their inclusion, so that we get an early-mid 2021 Nintendo character as the final DLC.

I don't really know if they would do that unless they decide to add another Gen 4 Pokemon due to possible Sinnoh remakes.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Byleth was chosen because Nintendo wanted "a character from a game that people were playing right now", and Sakurai just so happened to be playing Three Houses at the time. Piranha Plant was intended to be the "surprise character" of Ultimate.

I'm not sure if this is an argument for or against me, but assuming the latter, it doesn't really disprove anything I said. Nintendo wanting "a character from a game that people were playing right now" is still very much a pick for marketing purposes, even if the end result an Astral Chain character or something.

Piranha Plant may be a surprise character, but there's no denying that it's an odd pick for a preorder bonus since it's not really even a character; most people aren't forming attachments to it prior to its inclusion in Super Smash Bros.

FE3H had sold 0 copies in total at the time they decided on Byleth's inclusion.

Exactly. Byleth was picked because Fire Emblem: Three Houses was their biggest new game, and throwing it a character would help make it even bigger, not because Fire Emblem: Three Houses was incredibly popular. Popularity didn't factor in at all for this inclusion.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

I don't really know if they would do that unless they decide to add another Gen 4 Pokemon due to possible Sinnoh remakes.

Well, the past two DLC passes we've gotten both ended with a character from a new Nintendo game, so I wouldn't count it out. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Faso115]

Refresh my memory in case i'm misremembering but wasnt Sephiroth on the Square 7? That list that supposedly Nintendo was considering adding and negotiating for a spot?

It was a popular topic around the pre-E3 2019 days.

 

[I.D.]

Right, which is where the market research comes in. FE3H was clearly expected to be a success building upon the foundation laid by Awakening and Fates.

Market research isn't clairvoyance. There is ultimately no way to tell how much exactly a game is going to sell. It could have gone the way of Shadows of Valentia for all they knew.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I don't really know if they would do that unless they decide to add another Gen 4 Pokemon due to possible Sinnoh remakes.

It wouldn't be necessary for a remake. If it were to be done for a new game, it'd probably be for (and I'm just spitballing here) a new Kirby, Pikmin, Metroid, or The Legend of Zelda title.

EDIT: Perhaps it could still be Pokémon. We don't know if it'll be a remake or if there'll be a new game next year.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Woukdnt it ****ing funny if Sakurai announced Lance Bass was returning to play Sephiroth on the 17th?

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

Market research isn't clairvoyance. There is ultimately no way to tell how much exactly a game is going to sell. It could have gone the way of Shadows of Valentia for all they knew.

Didn't that game do better than they expected, though?