Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[SharkLord]

I’m like 99% sure the discussion was about if they had a chance at all, not about them being likely.

Yeah, the post that started it just said "Bandana Dee and Rex have a chance." I'm hesitant on Bandana Dee since the DLC so far has shied away from secondary characters and already-represented games, but Rex seems like he's on a good spot.

On the other hand, I believe there was an ad that had the Rex Mii in it, which gives me pause. Perhaps they felt that was enough already? I don't remember that ad very well, so I can't really say.

 

[Deleted member]

Semantics.

Swap the word “likely” with “possible” and it’s essentially the same conversation.

I can say Pepsiman is possible, but it means nothing unless I back it up. I can say that Adol Christin from Ys is possible, but again, it means nothing if I don’t back it up.

Pretty much the same point.

?

If something has a 0.00001% chance of happening, it’s still possible, however unlikely it may be.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

?

If something has a 0.00001% chance of happening, it’s still possible, however unlikely it may be.

If the conversation, in its entirety, is that something is possible, then what’s the point? Almost anything is possible for Smash, so saying one character or another is possible is negligible, or for the most part, obvious.

Is a character possible? Probably. But so are hundreds of others.

It’s not really a question of possibility, but probability.

At least, I don’t know why folks would argue possibility over probability. Seems like a negligible point to me.

Like really, at this point I wouldn’t count anything out as impossible, that’s just incredibly foolish. Probability is the more measurable argument.

The only “possibility” argument I could see is “upgrades”, and whether they’re actually in contention or not. But I’m not really wanting to have that conversation right now lol.

 

[Opossum]

Honestly I think Rex has the best odds of any first party, currently. Granted that's not a very high bar since I think he's the only one with a shot at all, but still. The way I see it, Waluigi's sadly done and dusted with the timing, Pokémon had Sword and Shield DLC spirits, and Bandana Waddle Dee never had much of a shot at all due to the various circumstances surrounding him.

Especially since, clearly, XC2 is still selling well considering it passed the two million mark, and there's still a lot of potential content they could add (there's only two songs from it in Smash, and major characters like Dromarch, Brighid, Jin, Malos, Pandoria, Vandham, and the Torna cast are unaccounted for, etc). I don't know. I could see Rex happening.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Despite the fact that Xenoblade 2 is “old” in some regards, I would have to agree that Rex is probably one of the only 1st party characters who is in a better spot than most others.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Yeah, the post that started it just said "Bandana Dee and Rex have a chance." I'm hesitant on Bandana Dee since the DLC so far has shied away from secondary characters and already-represented games, but Rex seems like he's on a good spot.

On the other hand, I believe there was an ad that had the Rex Mii in it, which gives me pause. Perhaps they felt that was enough already? I don't remember that ad very well, so I can't really say.

I don’t think so on the bolded part. I haven’t seen that Mii in any trailers or official POTDs. I believe it was the same way with Spring Man’s Assist Trophy until the Min Min trailer.

tl;dr - if they show Rex’s Mii in a POTD or trailer, it’s truly game over for him, I feel.

 

[RileyXY1]

Despite the fact that Xenoblade 2 is “old” in some regards, I would have to agree that Rex is probably one of the only 1st party characters who is in a better spot than most others.

They already moved back to the first game because of the Definitive Edition. X might get one too as it's one of the few remaining first party Wii U games that hasn't been ported.

 

[SharkLord]

I don’t think so on the bolded part. I haven’t seen that Mii in any trailers or official POTDs. I believe it was the same way with Spring Man’s Assist Trophy until the Min Min trailer.

tl;dr - if they show Rex’s Mii in a POTD or trailer, it’s truly game over for him, I feel.

Hmm, I specifically remember that we discussed it a while ago. Can anyone dig that one up for me? I want to clarify.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

At least, I don’t know why folks would argue possibility over probability. Seems like a negligible point to me.

I think it's because the conversation is largely skewed to who is impossible.

• Isaac is impossible because he is an Assist Trophy.
• Heihachi is impossible because he was just given a DLC Mii Costume.
• The Doom Slayer is impossible because Doom is too violent.
• Scorpion is impossible because Mortal Kombat isn't localized in Japan.
• Bandana Waddle Dee is impossible because there is currently no confirmed game that Nintendo would want to use him to promote.
• 2B is impossible because her outfit would have to be censored.

The list goes on. Some of these I think are valid points, others I really don't. The point is that there are a lot of characters that people find impossible for various reasons, and it kind of seems like the default for perceived character chances is impossible rather than a neutral likelihood.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I feel like an X port is inevitable at this point. They ported friggin Tokyo Mirage Sessions and Pikmin 3, which were definitely sleeper hits much like X. Plus they said porting would be difficult... two years ago. Maybe enough time has passed that they’ve progressed to show off a teaser of an X port

 

[RileyXY1]

But still, they have yet to add in a character to promote a port or remake, and I don't know if they will.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Hmm, I specifically remember that we discussed it a while ago. Can anyone dig that one up for me? I want to clarify.

I think that screenshot of Steve and the Rex Mii was made by a fan on twitter, not from the Sora_Sakurai twitter account

or do you mean something else? By trailers i specifically mean character trailers

 

[SharkLord]

I feel like an X port is inevitable at this point. They ported friggin Tokyo Mirage Sessions and Pikmin 3, which were definitely sleeper hits much like X. Plus they said porting would be difficult... two years ago. Maybe enough time has passed that they’ve progressed to show off a teaser of an X port

I doubt it'd come in time for Elma in Smash. We literally just got XC:DE, which released two years after the Torna DLC and three years after XC2 as a whole. Even with Xenoblade becoming much more popular and profitable during the Switch era, it's not going to make all the time and effort that has to be put into making a game suddenly go away. There's also the sect of MonoSoft that was working on a new project, which is most likely not another port or remaster.

 

[RileyXY1]

I doubt it'd come in time for Elma in Smash. We literally just got XC:DE, which released two years after the Torna DLC and three years after XC2 as a whole. Even with Xenoblade becoming much more popular and profitable during the Switch era, it's not going to make all the time and effort that has to be put into making a game suddenly go away. There's also the sect of MonoSoft that was working on a new project, which is most likely not another port or remaster.

It might be Xenoblade Chronicles 3, which would be bad for Rex's chances.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

But still, they have yet to add in a character to promote a port or remake, and I don't know if they will.

If any port or remake were to get a character for promotion it would be a Xenoblade Chronicles port/remake because making a port/remake of those games is no small feat. They're freaking huge. Not sure they'd do one for Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition since it already has a lot of content, but I do think a port of Xenoblade Chronicles X would get that treatment.

It might be Xenoblade Chronicles 3, which would be bad for Rex's chances.

It wouldn't really affect anything now though. Whatever comes next, it's going to be years away so nothing would really be far enough along to even tease really.

 

[Ivander]

Well here's a hypothetical question to break up the monotony a little bit.

For Sony owned/exclusive characters, which fighter would bring the most interesting moveset, stage, music, or spirits? And which would be the most novel in terms of impact on the public?

What I think:
Moveset - Kratos and Rachet/Clank would probably be the best for movesets due to their arsenal of weapons and power-ups.
Stage - I think Rachet/Clank, Sly Cooper, Medievil, Demons' Souls, Bloodborne and Ico/Shadow of the Colossus would bring great looking stages.
Music - Shadow of the Colossus would bring amazing music. So would Demons' Souls and Bloodborne.
Spirits - Rachet/Clank would be the best in terms of spirits. Sly Cooper would be a close second IMO.

The character who would bring alot of attention due to their games: To be honest, while God of War would get alot of attention due to being a more violence-focused series in Smash Bros., I think the game that would get a whole lot of attention due to their impact if they got a character is Shadow of the Colossus.
Shadow of the Colossus when it first came out was practically a phenomenon. Not just having a huge following, being referenced in other games and even movies, and having an influence on future games, but it was probably the game that really brought attention to the whole "Games as an art" deal.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I think it's because the conversation is largely skewed to who is impossible.

• Isaac is impossible because he is an Assist Trophy.
• Heihachi is impossible because he was just given a DLC Mii Costume.
• The Doom Slayer is impossible because Doom is too violent.
• Scorpion is impossible because Mortal Kombat isn't localized in Japan.
• Bandana Waddle Dee is impossible because there is currently no confirmed game that Nintendo would want to use him to promote.
• 2B is impossible because her outfit would have to be censored.

The list goes on. Some of these I think are valid points, others I really don't. The point is that there are a lot of characters that people find impossible for various reasons, and it kind of seems like the default for perceived character chances is impossible rather than a neutral likelihood.

To me, most of those points are moot.

Mortal Kombat being impossible? No, it’s not. Highly unlikely, probably considering the view toward highly violent games and the lack of exposure/release of games there. This is probably applicable to DOOM as well.

2B being impossible for that reason is laughable considering the change to Bayonetta, a character who gets literally naked through her attacks in-game for her series.

Heihachi is simply disconfirmed. To me that’s different from being “impossible”. Could they add Heihachi as a playable character? Yes. But will they? The odds of that are so extremely low that it might as well be impossible, as they are already charging for paid content in the costume.

With BWD, impossible is a harsh word. To me, the more suitable word is “likely” vs “unlikely”. Impossible is misused imo.

Isaac and other assist trophies are a weird situation where we really just...don’t know. Could they be upgraded? It’s not impossible. But is it likely? I don’t know about that either.

Really I think there’s a clear distinction between likelihood and impossibility. They aren’t interchangeable.

To be totally honest though, a lot of those situations making those characters impossible are weak.

 

[osby]

It might be Xenoblade Chronicles 3, which would be bad for Rex's chances.

If Nintendo already chose Rex, they're not going to scrap him because Monolith Soft announced a new game lmao.

It's not like Sakurai threw Incineroar away due to SwSh.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I think it's because the conversation is largely skewed to who is impossible.

• Isaac is impossible because he is an Assist Trophy.
• Heihachi is impossible because he was just given a DLC Mii Costume.
• The Doom Slayer is impossible because Doom is too violent.
• Scorpion is impossible because Mortal Kombat isn't localized in Japan.
• Bandana Waddle Dee is impossible because there is currently no confirmed game that Nintendo would want to use him to promote.
• 2B is impossible because her outfit would have to be censored.

The list goes on. Some of these I think are valid points, others I really don't. The point is that there are a lot of characters that people find impossible for various reasons, and it kind of seems like the default for perceived character chances is impossible rather than a neutral likelihood.

• Joker is impossible because he's too Playstation-associated without a producer personally requesting Sakurai for him to be in Smash or the iconicness of Cloud.
• Banjo and Kazooie are impossible because Minecraft is more successful and active
• Terry is impossible because he's not as familiar as Heihachi, Scorpion, and various other third parties
• Min Min is impossible because she's a first party who isn't from Three Houses or Sword and Shield and Spring Man would be the first ARMS rep

Granted I do think they wouldn't have brought back the Heihachi costume if he was planned as a fighter.

 

[RileyXY1]

If Nintendo already chose Rex, they're not going to scrap him because Monolith Soft announced a new game lmao.

It's not like Sakurai threw Incineroar away due to SwSh.

Choosing a Sword and Shield Pokemon for base would have been a horrible move as we didn't even know of the game's existence for another year.

 

[Banado_Boy]

Hmm, I specifically remember that we discussed it a while ago. Can anyone dig that one up for me? I want to clarify.

Is this what you’re referring to?

While you guys are discussing Xenoblade, I wanted to bring up an observation I made the other day. Apologies if someone had already brought this up at some point but it's pretty interesting to me.

When Steve came out I had noticed that the in-game newsletter graphic showcased the Ancient Armor alongside the current characters. Immediately this made me think about Rex - originally I assumed his costume didn't matter and that Nintendo would do whatever they wanted with him, but this got me thinking about how maybe Rex is a more significant part of FP1 than I gave him credit for.

imgur.com

Imgur: The magic of the Internet

imgur.com

So as you can see, FP1's graphic also showcases Rex. I'm not trying to say this is the be all end all for Rex's chances, but it's making me consider how Nintendo may see this costume as a bigger deal than we do. The fact that they deem it significant enough to promote as a selling point alongside the main attractions has me second-guessing my original opinion that the costume doesn't matter. I still don't think this would be a major obstacle if Nintendo did want to add Rex after all, but it's just interesting to take note of and may imply that this costume means more to them than I initially anticipated.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

I think that screenshot of Steve and the Rex Mii was made by a fan on twitter, not from the Sora_Sakurai twitter account

or do you mean something else? By trailers i specifically mean character trailers

There was an ad for Fighters Pass 1 with the Rex Mii, Joker, Hero, Banjo, Terry and Byleth on it.

Edit: 'd

 

[osby]

Choosing a Sword and Shield Pokemon for base would have been a horrible move as we didn't even know of the game's existence for another year.

So like how we currently don't even know if a Xenoblade 3 exists?

 

[RileyXY1]

So like how we currently don't even know if a Xenoblade 3 exists?

They could announce it next year, that is if it's Monolith Soft's next project.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

A Gen 8 rep getting in or not feels like such a coin toss that I wouldn't begrudge anyone whom feels one way or another.

As far as Rex, I'm not ruling him out, (I think realistically for first person reps he's most likely) but the X factor for him is competition from third parties.

With Xenoblade, I wouldn't be surprised to see a port of X or 3 coming out circa 2022. That feels like it'll depend on if/when the Switch successor comes and if a new entry feels like a better fit for it.

 

[Lamperouge]

...I mean, the Rex Mii costume is a part of FP1 and an incentive to purchase the pass, so I don't know why they wouldn't draw some attention to it.

Not sure if it's really a huge blow to him being a character in this pass or not.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

There was an ad for Fighters Pass 1 with the Rex Mii, Joker, Hero, Banjo, Terry and Byleth on it.

Edit: 'd

I wouldn’t count that ad personally, only if he appears in a POTD or gameplay part of a character’s trailer

like I said I recall them holding off on showing the Spring Man AT in POTDs or trailers until Min Min’s trailer

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I'm still adamant on Rex having a fairly high chance.

If they ended up turning around with ARMS in the form of Min Min, I'm certain they at the very least considered the aspect of Rex once again

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm still adamant on Rex having a fairly high chance.

If they ended up turning around with ARMS in the form of Min Min, I'm certain they at the very least considered the same for Rex

I don't really think so, as XC2 is no longer the hot new game with XCDE now out and the possibility of a DE for X too.

 

[Guynamednelson]

I don't really think so, as XC2 is no longer the hot new game with XCDE now out and the possibility of a DE for X too.

I don't think Greninja/Incineroar are getting into Smash 4/Ultimate, as XY/SM are no longer the hot new games with ORAS/Let's Go coming out.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

They could announce it next year, that is if it's Monolith Soft's next project.

The issue with this logic is that it is not something that can happen. To go with a previous example, a Generation 8 character could not have been picked over Inciniroar because even given the leeway, the character would not have existed in time to be chosen. It's the same deal here. A hypothetical Xenoblade Chronicles 3 would be on its first year of development, so it wouldn't be announced until much later, and the game's main cast would likely still be in the planning stages (if they had even started development before Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition's release, which happened after the roster picks). You literally couldn't add one from that game even if it was the next one.

 

[RileyXY1]

I don't think Greninja/Incineroar are getting into Smash 4/Ultimate, as XY/SM are no longer the hot new games with ORAS/Let's Go coming out.

ORAS added no new Pokemon, and LGPE only added Melmetal who I couldn't see get in. Rex has no chance. He is a DLC Mii Fighter costume, and I honestly think that they would pull a Min Min and pick a different XC2 character.

 

[Lamperouge]

I don't really think so, as XC2 is no longer the hot new game with XCDE now out and the possibility of a DE for X too.

I can't think of any remasters that have received heavy promotion in Smash, so I don't know why that would suddenly shift things in Elma's favor if XCX shows up on Switch soon.

And Shulk is already in Smash so there's really no need to take anything from XC:DE.

 

[RileyXY1]

The issue with this logic is that it is not something that can happen. To go with a previous example, a Generation 8 character could not have been picked over Inciniroar because even given the leeway, the character would not have existed in time to be chosen. It's the same deal here. A hypothetical Xenoblade Chronicles 3 would be on its first year of development, so it wouldn't be announced until much later, and the game's main cast would likely still be in the planning stages (if they had even started development before Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition's release, which happened after the roster picks). You literally couldn't add one from that game even if it was the next one.

Then again, such a thing happened already with Roy.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

ORAS added no new Pokemon, and LGPE only added Melmetal who I couldn't see get in. Rex has no chance. He is a DLC Mii Fighter costume, and I honestly think that they would pull a Min Min and pick a different XC2 character.

Watch as it’s Zeke

No seriously I unironically want the Zekenator. Plus he’s popular. Probably more popular than Rex if I had to guess

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I don't think Greninja/Incineroar are getting into Smash 4/Ultimate, as XY/SM are no longer the hot new games with ORAS/Let's Go coming out.

Bruh ORAS wasn't even announced when Greninja was confirmed

 

[SharkLord]

Is this what you’re referring to?

Yep, that's the one.

Isaac and other assist trophies are a weird situation where we really just...don’t know. Could they be upgraded? It’s not impossible. But is it likely? I don’t know about that either.

My stance is that they're possible, but an Assist Trophy promotion is unlikely because there just isn't many viable options, especially when you factor Mii Costumes into account. I think the only viable ones are Shovel Knight, Isaac, Yuri, Dillon, and possibly Waluigi and Shadow. Out of them, Shovel Knight's a recent Western indie, and those seem to have a habit of falling just short of the mark, Isaac, Yuri, and Dillon have been out of action for a while, and the latter two are lacking in both major impact and fan requests, and Waluigi and Shadow have big question marks hovering above their heads.
An Assist Trophy being promoted doesn't seem to bother the devs too much, seeing as Spring Man was treated as viable as any other candidate and the Bomberman Mii is pretty much identical to his AT, but even ignoring that the individual ATs have their own issues to deal with.

 

[RileyXY1]

Watch as it’s Zeke

No seriously I unironically want the Zekenator. Plus he’s popular. Probably more popular than Rex if I had to guess

I was thinking Nia.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Then again, such a thing happened already with Roy.

And it was stated to be a mistake. Not only would the characters's designs not be set in stone, but with the development being in pre-alpha, it's likely that the game mechanics wouldn't be locked in either.

EDIT: Meaning there's nothing to draw from, and even if they wanted to just base the new guy off of another character, that isn't really an option for a DLC character since the whole selling point is that they bring something new to the table. There also probably wouldn't be a good finalized location to make the stage either.

Bruh ORAS wasn't even announced when Greninja was confirmed

That's his point. The timelines don't match up at all.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I was thinking Nia.

Nia has a costume in base, she’s pretty much the Ribbon Girl to Rex’s Spring Man

unless you meant Blade Nia as a solo fighter