Hey i'll gladly (well maybe not gladly but still) eat my **** sandwich if it turns out Spirits were the death sentence for any character in the base game. Not saying that they'll absolutely be in but I at least have a reason for believing it's not a hard deconfirm.
I can't say it's a hard deconfirm either, I just think some aboard the "Spirits don't deconfirm" train of thought will distance themselves from it if and when it proves contrary to what we get.
Not to start bringing leakers into the this, but that's basically how Vergeben's detractors act about everything he says.
When he said Simon was going to happen: "He's a legend, anyone could've guessed that" (despite the character not being as wanted as others). When he called Base Goku and Vegeta: "FighterZ was already filled with different Gokus and Vegetas" (even though he mentioned a month prior to the game's release, not to mention everyone was hella angry when they found their data in a datamine). When he called Groh in SCVI: "I can call concepts too" (do I even have to point out all the flaws in that argument?). People have to be revisionist and think everything goes their way despite being obvious that things don't work likee that.
But moving on to Smash itself, there's nothing I have to be revisionist about. I stand when I say everyone will be a third-party and there's hardly any room for that to fail, and if it does, well, I'll just move on. Most things people have claimed about Smash go downhill eventually. It happened with Ridley, King K. Rool, Incineroar, Hero, Banjo, and even just the Fighters Pass in general (anyone here remembers when people thought the whole line-up would be just a bunch of promotional characters?); and because of that, I know my claims aren't immune to being wrong.
Oh man, I can't
belieeeeeeve how much revisionism there's been in regards to Simon. Him and Cloud, it's ridiculous. Prior to Vergeben, Simon was seen as, at best, a dark horse. So many more people were giving Bomberman the odds, and even he wasn't like... topping the expectation lists.
Actually, Bayonetta too, but in the opposite sense. Now everyone goes on about how Nintendo rigged the ballot towards someone nobody wanted and all that. But if you go back, she was a regular staple of top tens for exit polls. It's just that she was divisive, scapegoated, and looked upon with disdain by the competitive crowd, all of which clouded how she
was a popular choice - even if not
the most popular choice. Inkling as well, to some degree. Based on the entire Ultimate speculation cycle, you never would suspect that going into this, she was a top five, maybe top three popularity pick.
But as to your point, I don't deny the things I was off the mark about either - I didn't think Ultimate would be such a distinct iteration, nor did I ever in a million years anticipate characters like Young Link and Pichu returning. But, truthfully, I think a lot of the revisionism stems from a genuine distorted memory. The exception might be when a leaker gets invoked, because people love trying to discredit them, but I think most of it is an innocuous if incorrect recollection of events, not necessarily to create a narrative. Like Isaac and Ashley basically swapped from longshot to frontrunner (and vice versa) halfway through the wait to release, but retrospectively only the former is seen as the frontrunner, and only the latter as the longshot.
You know, it's funny how the pendulum swings. I remember during the Smash 4 DLC there was a lot of crowing about how "we don't need any more Nintendo characters, all the important ones are in, the third party DLC is fine." When it was initially announced that Nintendo was involved in picking the characters, people feared it would be all first party advertisements. Now I'm noticing more resentment over the inevitability of the DLC being all third party. I know that's not necessarily the same people complaining, and I would wager it's because the Nintendo newcomer list was so much smaller in Ultimate (unless you were a diehard K. Rool/Ridley fan you didn't have a lot to chew on), but I am slowly but surely seeing more pushback against guest characters despite them initially being so exciting. I think the novelty has worn off for a lot of people.
But you're 100% right. I feel like three out of five characters in, some things are pretty safe to call, and I think your assessment rings true.
The key is always balance. With the pass, there isn't any in the first/third-party sense, and that's why it's beginning to wear a little thin. Just a little though. It'll be hard for the complaints regarding an overabundance of third-parties to really take over, given the pool of Nintendo hopefuls keeps draining while the third-parties just seem to get swapped out with new favourites. Especially since the third-parties are at a greater risk of being cycled out going forward.
However I totally get why Nintendo is relying on third-parties. They've basically played almost all if not all their aces at this point, but there are still many waves to be made with third-party reveals. The writing has been on the wall since at least Smash 4.
Speaking of, I don't remember when people were maligning Nintendo additions during the DLC phase, given choices like K. Rool, Isaac, Wolf and Inkling were very popular. I do recall the observation of "there's an official fan poll being conducted and we haven't gotten a single fan-favourite Nintendo newcomer yet". This is back when we'd no idea there'd only be a sole "ballot choice" for DLC.