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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Hinata said:
Are you kidding me? You expect all those things in the span of like 10 minutes, in the same format of direct that spent half its runtime on a WWE game?

Yeah, right. We'll be lucky if we get even ONE of the things you just listed.
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I promise the mini directs were longer than ten minutes. Could just be my brain.

Either way, I expect some large stuff. I am feeling optimistic.

Edit: Hinata, if you see this, I hope you're doing well.
 
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LiveStudioAudience

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It is rather telling how much that original Partner Showcase really turned people off from the concept entirely, even though I'd argue the one in August was more consistently notable with its games and that the idea is entirely sound on paper. Its honestly a pity that the flood of first party announcements (Mario 35, Hyrule Warriors 2, Pikmin 3) didn't come first to satiate the desire for big news and lessen expectations that the showcase would be a huge deal in that regard.

Whether or not the one tomorrow turns out to be significant, its being met with a lot more cynical expectations that it could have had otherwise if dates for major news in the past two months had been re-arranged somewhat.
 
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I am quite optimistic. After all of this suffering, there has to be light at the end of the tunnel for Nintendo hype, right?
 
SharkLord

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cashregister9 said:
If I remember the point that Cygames was trying to make with that Dragalia comment was them basically saying "Without Nintendo we would make more money"


Granblue, Dragalia and I guess you can consider Fate all seem like good options for a mobile game rep
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Dragalia would be an easy target for Nintendo, being a first-party IP. Granblue seems pretty easy to get too, seeing as Nintendo let them create their first mobile IP. Fate... I don't know enough, so I'm not qualified to say. Still, if Cygames and.or Nintendo think Dragalia isn't making enough money, then my bet's on Granblue.
 
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Hinata said:
They've never told us the duration of these Partner Showcases.
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Wait a minute...

You said they were ten minutes. If we were never told, how do you know?

The last mini direct was around thirty minutes I think.
 
Hinata

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3BitSaurus said:
Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but didn't they tell us the duration of the second one?

Just curious, is all.
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Nope, it's always been a mystery, and both of these Directs were around the 10 minute mark. I think it's safe to assume the same for the upcoming one.
 
Evil Trapezium

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Whatever this partner showcase shows off, I am guaranteed to see nothing that I am interested in.

I have got a Sleepy Mario gif on the ready.
 
LiveStudioAudience

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Just to clarify I think most of the fans are referring to what we saw in March as a real mini-direct (given its mix of first and third party games) whereas the July, August/September presentations are seen as Partner Showcases which (regardless of the branding Nintendo gives them) are pretty much <15 minutes and third party focused.

Same way that the Mario 35th video was typically seen as Mario direct more than a general one given the emphasis.
 
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I was about to complain about the pessimism in here, but then I realized I am quite pessimistic about myself.

 
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ColietheGoalie

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I’m hopeful that the whisperings of a new Monster Hunter for Switch being announced this month and tomorrow’s Partner Direct are related...
 
Cosmic77

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I'm guessing we'll get about four or five of these Mini Partner Directs, so it stands to reason that each of these would be roughly the same amount of time in order to divide the content up evenly.

As for what kind of content we'll get, hard to say. It's possible that we get a huge announcement, but I guess everyone's definition of "huge" is different. Guess the only advice I can give is to expect something close to the previous two Directs.
 
SnowClaws

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Reminder if Euden from Dragalia Lost gets in as a fighter in Smash, this is the potential musics that it could comes with.


Also, Sept 27 is the 2nd anniversary of Dragalia Lost and there could be a crossover announcement for that game in the potential Dragalia Digest presentation on that very same day.
 
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At least one of these will happen.

SMTV, Bayonetta 3, or Bravely Default 2.

My gut tells me I am correct.
 
SKX31

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Phoenixio said:
What do you mean by that? They cut out Galaxy 2 from 3D All Stars? Did they say anything about it? I kinda wish they had done a Galaxy pack instead, and another with all the rest.
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Nintendo's recently had a habit of not mentioning Galaxy 2 at all in their Mario timelines (including the 35th Anniversary Direct) and the Briefing continued that trend.

cashregister9 said:
If I remember the point that Cygames was trying to make with that Dragalia comment was them basically saying "Without Nintendo we would make more money"
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The big problem with Nintendo's mobile strategy* is that A) Nintendo doesn't really have a strategy for the mobile sphere (I'll elaborate on this) and B) the mobile sphere is incredibly slanted towards "Just enough microtransactions" (I'm underlining parts that are especially important):

In 2020, it should be clear that Nintendo does not find the mobile gaming category interesting. The rationale isn’t hard to understand, even if many investors struggle to confront it. Mobile is, for the most part, less creatively sophisticated than console gaming, and success depends on the extensive cloning/replication of “best practices.” For a company that refuses to remake its own titles and is focused on constantly reinventing existing hits, the idea of cloning games or making “Candy Crush but Zelda” is of little interest. The greatest cultural challenge, though, is in mobile monetization. In 2019, WSJ reported that Nintendo had asked its mobile developers to reign in monetization mechanics so that players “won’t spend too much.” The company feared that stories of players spending hundreds or thousands of dollars would hurt its brand image.
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This is not an unreasonable fear. However, “whale” monetization is the core driver of mobile games today. Only 4% of Candy Crush players, for example, spend on the game. And 10% of this 4% (or 0.4% of users) generate 50% of revenue. As a result, even minor adjustments in whale optimization can devastate economics. According to WSJ, CyberAgent, the developer of the Nintendo-based mobile title Dragalia Lost, “slashed its fiscal-year earnings forecast for the first time in 17 years in January due in part to the game’s disappointing performance. While player numbers for the game have grown due to an aggressive advertising campaign, revenue from each player has fallen short of projections.” An anonymous official at CyberAgent told the Journal, “Nintendo is not interested in making a large amount of revenue from a single smartphone game… If we managed the game alone, we would have made a lot more.” Notably, Disney should share Nintendo’s brand concerns in mobile gaming. But this has not stopped the company from releasing basic games that generate billions from whale monetization. Its brand, albeit not one based in games, does not seem to have suffered. Nor has the Pokémon franchise in the years since the ultra-lucrative (and whale-supporting) Pokémon Go.
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Again, there is some sort of noble intent here. Nintendo's constantly reiterated that the general company culture is interested in making new exciting ways to play, and mobile is severely limited in that regard. However, Nintendo evidently wants to integrate mobile apps into the general Nintendo ecosystem (NSO, AC Pocket Camp)... although the implementation has been severely inconsistent. Especially NSO's voice chat functionality, which Fortnite skipped entirely.

Also, the WSJ article? Posted in March 2019. Guess what was added into MKT in October 2019?

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Yes, MKT's $40 Diddy Kong Pack.


" SKX31 SKX31 .exe has crashed. Please push the "Reboot" button."

Ehm, where was I? Oh yes. That.

The Diddy Kong pack (and so many other microtransaction implementations in Nintendo's mobile efforts, like the subscription services) is anathema to the whole "won't spend too much" quote, and it absolutely hurt Nintendo's brand image re: how they handle mobile games. This tweet, reacting to data from Sensor Tower, encapsulates the reaction. Meanwhile, games like Dragalia Lost and Super Mario Run do suffer because... well, monetization is king in the mobile sphere, and:

Consider the 2016 struggles of Super Mario Run. Here, Nintendo made the ill-fated decision to offer only two free levels and charge $10 to play the full game. This violated most monetization primitives around free-to-play, engagement-based monetization and gameplay design — and by Nintendo’s own admission, this hampered the game's success.
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The article does go into MKT's barebones launch (with no multiplayer or landscape mode) and really, that tells a lot: Nintendo doesn't have a strategy re: mobile, and it's hurting Dragalia and other games.

The reason why "copying best practices" is king in the mobile sphere is because the mobile ecosystem directly encourages very low barriers of entry but enticing players to spend bit by bit. There are at least a million+ F2P games on both Android's and iOS respective stores, and the most succesful apps tend to absolutely dominate the top charts for years (and thus reach even more players and thus whales). Angry Birds, Candy Crush, Clash of Clans... the list goes on. It's gotten to the point where mobile monetization is a practical science, and anyone who doesn't follow the method are indirectly punished for it.

It's made even worse by the fact that Nintendo has no strategy here. Very little microtransactions in one game... the Diddy Kong Pack in another. There doesn't seem to be a middle ground really. And it's a shame: while it would be very difficult to rebalance Dragalia and find this middle ground, that would have been for the best really. Yes, a lot of people are uncomfortable with the fact that whales dominate the mobile sphere, but in an environment that rewards it it might be best to - again - find that middle ground.

Hoo, this was much longer than I expected.

*(and this is something that's brought up within Nintendo, I'm pretty sure. We're talking about a massive company here.)
 
TCT~Phantom

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You guys want my flash from the future?

-Layton trilogy announced for the Switch. It’s just ports of the IOS versions of the DS trilogy.
-Bayonetta 3
-Zero Smash Info
 
cashregister9

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My flash from the future
-Apollo Justice and Ace Attorney Investigations coming to switch (It is just the IOS version)
-Monster Hunter
-Rune Factory 5 Gameplay
The 3 things above are only in the Japanese Version
-More Bakugan Gameplay
-Persona 5 Scramble
-DOOM Eternal
 
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Calamitas

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Blackmage Kuja said:
Just got a flash of insight from the future.

We're going to get an announcement for a 'Remaster' of the original Bravely Default to be on the Switch and it'll be paired with Bravely Second.
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God, that'd be amazing. Though if that were to happen, I would wonder how they'd implement some of the more 3DS-specific features into such a remaster, such as those 3D movie thingies where you can look around with your 3DS, Streetpass for Norende/Moon reconstruction, and those spoilery instances where the game makes use of the 3DS' camera.

And I'd also be a bit bummed since I literally finished replaying Default like last week or so, but eh.
 
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I wasn’t looking to make ‘flash of insight’ a thing lol. It was more of an epiphany anyway; I misspoke.

As for your musings, Calamitis, where theres a will, there’s a way. I’m sure they can figure out something for the cutscenes and for rebuilding.
 
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MarioRaccoon

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Nintendo mini predictions ?

  • Klonoa Encore; its a remaster of Klonoa’s 1 Wii remake
  • Bravely Default II release date
  • Doom Eternal release date
  • Apex Legends now available
  • Metal Slug 8
  • Sizzle reel: includes NFS Hot Persuit remaster and DMC4 SE as new ports
  • Monster Hunter Stories Ultimate (HD port with extras) and Monster Hunter NeXt Generation
  • Rune Factory 5 (Only in japanese direct
 
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NotGenerico

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epicmartin7 said:
Hi! Hate to quote late, however, I wanted to ask how these numbers are found? I've been looking in the website coding for the Smash Ultimate notifications page, and can't seem to find anything relating to those post numbers mentioned.
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I can help explain this as I've been paying attention to the way the Smash Bros News Site works. The website you should be using is https://www-aaaba-lp1-hac.cdn.nintendo.net/en-GB/index.html. Clicking on any event should show you more information along with a bigger version of the Event's image. All of these images are labeled with the Event's ID. For example, the latest tournament image is labeled as 4030_news.jpg as shown here https://www-aaaba-lp1-hac.cdn.nintendo.net/en-GB/ce190d0f/img/4030_news.jpg.

I've actually learnt a couple of things by analyzing the way Nintendo has been doing these events. Those are:

-They don't skip Events very much unless they have an actual reason for doing so. For example, Spirit Event #1007 was a Metroid Event that was skipped. Following the pattern of other Events it would have been released on January 25, but that was the exact day of the Metroid Prime 4 delay announcement. Instead Spirit Event #1008 took its place for obvious reasons and the Metroid Event didn't happen until July.

-These Events are probably planned at least three months in advance. Proof of this can be seen with the way the LABO Event was handled. It's labeled as Spirit Event #1021. It seems like they always planned to release it a week after the one-year anniversary of LABO, but because they had skipped the Metroid Event and an unknown Event #1019, they had to push forward events #1022 and #1023, so that the LABO event could coincide with the schedule they had originally set.

-Min Min was definitely delayed. All of the news items relating to her (News Items #2081 to #2088) happened after the ones labeled #2089 (An offer for Nintendo Switch Online owners) and #2090 (The 8th Smash Art Dojo results). This isn't surprising at all considering the COVID situation right now.

I actually have this crazy theory that we're getting more Capcom and Arcsys stuff based on some of the stuff I've noticed, but I think I might be reading too much into things and don't want to make this post any longer.
 
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