Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[CapitaineCrash]

Another weird tactic I’ve seen is the idea that, since Duck Hunt Dog is old, that being old isn’t an issue at all, or because Min-Min isn’t the protag, it isn’t an issue at all to not be. Usually used in tandem with other outliers so that every character can seem to be super likely.

Here’s an example.

Perry the Parasol is unlikely? Why?
A one-off? Dark Pit, Sheik, Min-Min say hi!
No moveset potential? Piranha Plant, R.O.B, Fox are right there?
Not important in its series? Have you missed Jigglypuff being in?

Like, honestly, there’s not a single argument against Perry the Parasol that doesn’t crumble under my Logic

Joke aside, something to note is that is seems that the criteria for getting in as dlc are different than the one for a base game roster. For example, I remember for the base game a lot of predictions for Takamaru or Mach rider because retro characters are common in base game roster, but those characters discussion died with the fighter pass because people don't really see retro characters add as dlc (by retro I mean old characters who don't have any game for a very long time).

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

When you kidnapped as much as Peach does it would only make sense to have a stress reliever on hand.

Except she gets kidnapped so often that all it does is gather dust

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

What did they change in the M&L remakes if I may ask?

Certain enemies. I don't know to what extent though. I think it was Shroob who brought this up.

 

[Deleted member]

Except she gets kidnapped so often that all it does is gather dust

This made me think... Why does Bowser capture her all the time? Is he trying to take over the Mushroom Kingdom? If he is in love with Peach, then he's failing, because capturing someone is not a good choice in romance.

 

[The Stoopid Unikorn]

This made me think... Why does Bowser capture her all the time? Is he trying to take over the Mushroom Kingdom? If he is in love with Peach, then he's failing, because capturing someone is not a good choice in romance.

I think it's both?

 

[cashregister9]

What did they change in the M&L remakes if I may ask?

They might have been referring to Geno

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

What did they change in the M&L remakes if I may ask?

Off the top of my head, they've homogenized M&L's design to be more in line with their "mainline designs" (colored letters on their hats, no striped socks for Luigi) and removed Geno.

 

[Cosmic77]

It'd be nice if we could have conversations about characters who are viewed as less likely instead of always going back to the same characters.

Only problem is that anyone who tries to do exactly that is likely to either be completely ignored or told something along the lines of, "Yeah, I guess they'd be okay, but they'll never get in. You do know that, right?"

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

WHAT THE ACTUAL SH-
AHJJJH<AHGULGSYGYFYFVWB
Snjbhd,jsahdkisol
wWHYYY
WHY MUST YOU GIVE SUCH CURSED KNOWLEDGE
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

If you think that's bad, wait until you hear about the dots I connected when thinking about Super Princess Peach.

Don't worry I won't tell you. T'would be a curel act.

 

[Dinoman96]

Joke aside, something to note is that is seems that the criteria for getting in as dlc are different than the one for a base game roster. For example, I remember for the base game a lot of predictions for Takamaru or Mach rider because retro characters are common in base game roster, but those characters discussion died with the fighter pass because people don't really see retro characters add as dlc (by retro I mean old characters who don't have any game for a very long time).

I think Piranha Plant basically buried the idea of the "retro rep".

In Sakurai's words, PP is Ultimate's equivalent to Mr. Game & Watch, R.O.B and Duck Hunt, not necessarily "retro reps" but "surprise characters". It's more of a coincidence that the first three happened to be characters last prominent decades ago.

Ice Climbers were basically the only characters included for the sake of having a "retro rep", everyone else like the three alformentioned characters and Pit had other reasons for their inclusions.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

What did they change in the M&L remakes if I may ask?

The big one is no more variations of iconic Mario enemies, a staple for the first 3 games, but no longer in M&L since they went on 3DS. While some people claim it's because they were reusing assets from the other 3DS games, not only does it beg the question why the 3DS games suddenly changed something so memorable, but even sprites of enemies that weren't in the other 3DS games became more standardized like Sniffits and the Mecha Chain Chomps becoming generic Mechakoopas

 

[Teeb147]

Anyone think NIS could have a light of day in smash? Disgaea being the more popular series i guess.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It'd be nice if we could have conversations about characters who are viewed as less likely instead of always going back to the same characters.

Only problem is that anyone who tries to do exactly that is likely to either be completely ignored or told something along the lines of, "Yeah, I guess they'd be okay, but they'll never get in. You do know that, right?"

And arguing further means your delusional because there are no factors at play that would ever get past the factors working against them. That would be impossible.

 

[Arcane Jill]

It'd be nice if we could have conversations about characters who are viewed as less likely instead of always going back to the same characters.

Only problem is that anyone who tries to do exactly that is likely to either be completely ignored or told something along the lines of, "Yeah, I guess they'd be okay, but they'll never get in. You do know that, right?"

Talk about unlikely characters? But they are not a lock like [insert most wanted here] and I don't like them/have no idea who they are. Also, next item on our itinerary is Wacky Wahoo Puppet Boi, gotta keep on schedule

 

[WeirdChillFever]

It'd be nice if we could have conversations about characters who are viewed as less likely instead of always going back to the same characters.

Only problem is that anyone who tries to do exactly that is likely to either be completely ignored or told something along the lines of, "Yeah, I guess they'd be okay, but they'll never get in. You do know that, right?"

I don’t think characters are being ignored on purpose, sometimes conversations moves in different directions. The reason some topics are brought up often is because people have opinions on it, either thinking something is really good or really bad. Most of the topics aren’t that divisive to spark discussion, plus not everyone is as knowledgeable as supporters of a certain characters. Same goes for liklehood. Supporters of a character assume their character is likely, so any point brought against them is often seen as silencing or “not letting supporters dream“ or fanruley.

 

[Slime Master]

I've said this before, but I draw a hard line between what's a "fan rule" and what is just basic speculation: if you don't offer any reasoning for why some pattern exists, it's a fan rule. As soon as you start to explain why this pattern exists and use it to extrapolate why other characters will probably follow that pattern, it's just speculation. Your reasoning might not be well thought out, in which case it's not good speculation, but that's still better than a fan rule.
This requires a bit of adaptation sometimes, there are times people use "too sexy" in a way that feels like a fan rule, even though they're citing Sakurai's "good boys and girls" so in that case I care that they're not explaining the difference between Mai and Bayonetta and why one is acceptable while the other isn't.

 

[weallfloatdownhere7]

It'd be nice if we could have conversations about characters who are viewed as less likely instead of always going back to the same characters.

Only problem is that anyone who tries to do exactly that is likely to either be completely ignored or told something along the lines of, "Yeah, I guess they'd be okay, but they'll never get in. You do know that, right?"

I dunno, I mean I’m just more interested in talking about characters who actually have a realistic shot. I get it, talking about the same characters gets old, but I’m not really interested in investing time talking about characters who have zero chance at getting in as DLC. What’s the point?

 

[Blankiturayman]

Though Nintendo doesn't mind rereleasing SMRPG, which implies that Peach has a sex toy in her room

It just says "Toadstool's "???"" you know, it's not THAT explicit. Unless you're just kidding here, in which case pay me no mind.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

It just says "Toadstool's "???"" you know, it's not THAT explicit. Unless you're just kidding here, in which case pay me no mind.

In the Japanese version it literally says “Peach’s XXX”

I thought it was just her panties but I guess not

 

[SKX31]

This made me think... Why does Bowser capture her all the time? Is he trying to take over the Mushroom Kingdom? If he is in love with Peach, then he's failing, because capturing someone is not a good choice in romance.

Miyamoto's answer: "¯\(ツ)/¯“

"Mama Peach" only made it worse in retrospect. Especially the direction they gave Peach's VA: "Okay, I want you to sound confused and ask 'Mama?! I'm your Mama?!' And nothing more."

Like... gaaaah. Grabs Brain Bleach.

Off the top of my head, they've homogenized M&L's design to be more in line with their "mainline designs" (colored letters on their hats, not striped socks for Luigi) and removed Geno.

It's difficult to say why they removed Geno though. They did get permission to use him the first time around evidently, so it could be something like the artists owning the character rights wanting more or Nintendo not willing to go through the trouble again.

Then again, Nintendo's not willing to go through with their own in-house partners (Goombella, Vivian etc.) so there might've been a decreased interest in side characters from past games overall. Especially considering the rumored establishment of the "Mario Standards Panel".

The big one is no more variations of iconic Mario enemies, a staple for the first 3 games, but no longer in M&L since they went on 3DS. While some people claim it's because they were reusing assets from the other 3DS games, not only does it beg the question why the 3DS games suddenly changed something so memorable, but even sprites of enemies that weren't in the other 3DS games became more standardized like Sniffits and the Mecha Chain Chomps becoming generic Mechakoopas

... And that one lends quite a bit of credence to the "Mario Standards Panel" rumors. Sometimes idiosyncracies like that can be very frustrating to think about. Hypotheoretically, nothing's stopping Nintendo from reusing their own characters or letting stuff like that be, but apparently Miyamoto's distress over the spin-offs "veering too far away from the Mario formula" was so great that those changes were seen as worth it.

Most casual players won't notice - or care that much about - those changes either, which might be what Miyamoto et al. counted on too.

 

[Blankiturayman]

In the Japanese version it literally says “Peach’s XXX”

I thought it was just her panties but I guess not

That's what I thought too, it's not really specified either way so I suppose you can just interpret it as what you think.

 

[Deleted member]

Fire Emblem is also very much not like Super Mario. I don't think such adult themes would fly in the series in this day and age.

you sure about that?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

It just says "Toadstool's "???"" you know, it's not THAT explicit. Unless you're just kidding here, in which case pay me no mind.

It's hidden from plain sight and Peach gets mad if you look for it when she's available in the party, call it woman's intuition, but that's VERY obvious for what it's supposed to be. That's how they always get away with it in kid shows and stuff, it's not painfully obvious, otherwise they wouldn't get away with it

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I don’t think characters are being ignored on purpose, sometimes conversations moves in different directions. The reason some topics are brought up often is because people have opinions on it, either thinking something is really good or really bad. Most of the topics aren’t that divisive to spark discussion, plus not everyone is as knowledgeable as supporters of a certain characters. Same goes for liklehood. Supporters of a character assume their character is likely, so any point brought against them is often seen as silencing or “not letting supporters dream“ or fanruley.

I think that's also a truth here. Take Reimu for example: By my count, there are like, 2 Touhou buffs, and a handful of people of people who are at least familiar with the series. I can see why we don't talk about it too often.

But when we do, it's mostly just people dismissing it.

I dunno, I mean I’m just more interested in talking about characters who actually have a realistic shot. I get it, talking about the same characters gets old, but I’m not really interested in investing time talking about characters who have zero chance at getting in as DLC. What’s the point?

But how will you know if you don't talk about them and consider all information? taps temple

you sure about that?

Erm. I'm pretty sure he's talking about violence rather than innuendo here.

...

...Eugh.

 

[Speed Weed]

Being fair, we wouldn't have had Zelda talk if it wasn't for that Hyrule Warriors reveal.

This shows just how much tunnel vision a lot of speculators have, thinking the only way a first-party character can happen is if they have a game coming soon... despite Min Min being from a 2017 game and added to Smash in 2020.

EDIT: Being fair, this has precedence, since there hasn't been a first-party newcomer DLC who wasn't relatively recent at the time of release, but still...

oml thank you

i'm starting to get real tired at how many times speculation basically boils down to "new game? they in. no new game? they no in"

this is especially bad with first-parties but it's also extended to third parties at times. i've seen characters with a good amount of legacy and popularity get brushed off simply because they don't have a new game coming out

like, i get that relevancy can be important as to choose characters that would be in the current public eye at the time of their reveal.....but it ends up just being needlessly limiting in the context of speculation when it's reached the point where more first-parties are ONLY EVER brought into discussion if a new game for them is announced.

bottom line: recency isn't everything. promotion isn't everything. new games aren't everything. there's other (and more interesting to discuss imo) merits we can judge characters on. on the smash devs' side, recency can be the final push a character needs into getting in (or just a helpful bonus) but the problem is, a lot of speculators twist it into meaning that x character clearly ONLY got in cause they had a new game, and therefore, you MUST have a new game coming out to get in. it can get really tiring when a bunch of really cool potential characters are thrown in the trash simply because they're not starring in The Adventures of Dumb**** Johnson, releasing december 2020

You know what would be a pretty cool, old-school 3rd party character? Edward Falcon. He was considered the main character of Power Stone. Everybody used to freakin' LOVE Power Stone so it would probably have a lot of nostalgic fans.

i would ****ing love that but sadly i don't see him getting in if he can't even get into his own company's crossover fighting game

 

[Cosmic77]

I dunno, I mean I’m just more interested in talking about characters who actually have a realistic shot. I get it, talking about the same characters gets old, but I’m not really interested in investing time talking about characters who have zero chance at getting in as DLC. What’s the point?

I've already seen about two or three new characters in this game who were mostly neglected in conversations because this thread decided they wouldn't happen. There's no way Sakurai would choose Incineroar over Decidueye, and ARMS missed its chance.

At the very least, I don't think there's any harm in having an occasional conversation on a character deemed as unlikely. It allows people to talk about an often neglected character, as well as keep more variety in this thread.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

just saying, there's no beating Cloud finding Tifa's orthopedic underwear in vanilla FFVII, but sadly they're totes changing that for Remake

 

[Evil Trapezium]

It'd be nice if we could have conversations about characters who are viewed as less likely instead of always going back to the same characters.

Only problem is that anyone who tries to do exactly that is likely to either be completely ignored or told something along the lines of, "Yeah, I guess they'd be okay, but they'll never get in. You do know that, right?"

This thread does ask about what obscure characters people can think of occasionally. People mostly brush it off either because not many people post a moveset to give everyone an idea of what they could do. Even then, there are other things to take into account like whether the character itself appeals to everyone else or if they have a new game coming out.

I talk about characters like Cormano (Sunset Riders) and Ark (Terranigma) but no one is interested because I either haven't given them a reason to care about them or the characters simply just don't appeal to people.

I don't know. Maybe I'm just rambling.

 

[Deleted member]

Erm. I'm pretty sure he's talking about violence rather than innuendo here.

...

...Eugh.

alright

here's a more explicit innuendo:

 

[Rie Sonomura]

yeah i think we should maybe give the innuendo talk a rest for now

NoA STILL has not tweeted

and correct me if im wrong but NoE has still tweeted before a Direct Announcement... I think

 

[RileyXY1]

This thread does ask about what obscure characters people can think of occasionally. People mostly brush it off either because not many people post a moveset to give everyone an idea of what they could do. Even then, there are other things to take into account like whether the character itself appeals to everyone else or if they have a new game coming out.

I talk about characters like Cormano (Sunset Riders) and Ark (Terranigma) but no one is interested because I either haven't given them a reason to care about them or the characters simply just don't appeal to people.

I don't know. Maybe I'm just rambling.

I feel the same way, especially about Mamoru Endou from Inazuma Eleven.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

bottom line: ... promotion isn't everything.

I personally disagree in regards to first parties. All of the first parties (even Min Min, but except for the veterans) seem to have been picked at least in large part because of their promotional opportunities. It's why I think a Xenoblade Chronicles character is likely, and not much else unless there's a big game coming that we don't know about yet. Given their lack of communication as of late and precedent of picking characters before their game is even out, I think a scenario like that is probably more likely than we think, though who would get in like that is impossible to predict.

3rd parties seem to be an entirely different matter though, and I think we'll see more of them than first parties because of it.



Oh jeez is it twelve already? Crap! IgottagobeforeIturnintoapumpkinOKbye!

 

[ShrimpScampi]

yeah i think we should maybe give the innuendo talk a rest for now

NoA STILL has not tweeted

and correct me if im wrong but NoE has still tweeted before a Direct Announcement... I think

NoA tweeted about Cadence of Hyrule about an hour ago

 

[Guynamednelson]

I personally disagree in regards to first parties. All of the first parties (even Min Min, but except for the veterans) seem to have been picked at least in large part because of their promotional opportunities. It's why I think a Xenoblade Chronicles character is likely, and not much else unless there's a big game coming that we don't know about yet. Given their lack of communication as of late and precedent of picking characters before their game is even out, I think a scenario like that is probably more likely than we think, though who would get in like that is impossible to predict.

3rd parties seem to be an entirely different matter though, and I think we'll see more of them than first parties because of it.



Oh jeez is it twelve already? Crap! IgottagobeforeIturnintoapumpkinOKbye!

Even if promotion is everything, Min Min is proof that you've got to expand your horizons. Nintendo isn't solely interested in advertising Pokemon SS and Hyrule Warriors Calamity.

Basically this thread needs to learn to compromise. Don't have people unironically act like Goomba is a lock, but also don't be insistent on every upcoming character being Crash or your favorite green-armored shooter.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

NoA tweeted about Cadence of Hyrule about an hour ago

I for some reason didn’t get the notification (I get twitter notifications for NoA and Nintendo VS on mobile) did get their one just now though

 

[Megadoomer]

yeah i think we should maybe give the innuendo talk a rest for now

NoA STILL has not tweeted

and correct me if im wrong but NoE has still tweeted before a Direct Announcement... I think

They did, though.

Take a look at what the #CadenceOfHyrule: Crypt of the NecroDancer Featuring The Legend of Zelda Season Pass has to offer and keep the beat going with three DLC packs as they are released!https://t.co/Isxqfp6TUX pic.twitter.com/EyOieFnfgM

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) September 9, 2020

Here’s a look at the official box art and key visual for #HyruleWarriors: Age of Calamity. Stand against the forces of Calamity Ganon when the game launches on 11/20!https://t.co/viqO4K4BtA pic.twitter.com/gSseLX4hSW

— Nintendo of America (@NintendoAmerica) September 9, 2020

On a related note, Tiny Guardian for Smash!

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

because people don't really see retro characters add as dlc (by retro I mean old characters who don't have any game for a very long time).

Does that mean Geno counts as a retro rep?

And I mentioned his name, I guess this forum's now falling into chaos.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Welp, if we get a direct tomorrow it’s probably gonna be a March style mini

which means more than likely... another guessing game. [grumble]

 

[Teeb147]

yeah i think we should maybe give the innuendo talk a rest for now

NoA STILL has not tweeted

and correct me if im wrong but NoE has still tweeted before a Direct Announcement... I think

Why are people waiting for a tweet? (sorry for being out of the loop)

 

[SharkLord]

Welp, if we get a direct tomorrow it’s probably gonna be a March style mini

which means more than likely... another guessing game. [grumble]

The only reason we got a guessing game was because Min Min needed some extra time in the workshop. Assuming we get a more traditional/simple character like, say, Isaac or Lloyd, I'd imagine they'd be ready for a full trailer.