Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[TriggerX]

Its a bit ambiguous what is "demographic overlap". Last pass, we have 3 JRPG chracters, the three of them "anime boys" (Joker, Hero and Byleth), both from titles release in the last 3 years, from IP that had +30 years of history.

Ryu Hayabusa can be label as a "retro character", while Dante can be labeled as a "Playstation character".




Ha! That gave me a good laugh, if those 3 would have great relationship with Nintendo, we would have seen Resident Evil 7/2R/3R, any internal U4 Namco-Bandai game (Tekken 7, Soul Calibur 6, Ace Combat 7, Code Vein, Tales of Arise, ect) or any Yakuza title on Switch.

Personally I’m actually glad third party developers don’t invest their time into porting their games on the switch. I’d rather not see development cater towards the lowest denominator when creating a game.

 

[Shroob]

But yeah the next two weeks are gonna feel loooooong.



At the very least though, after the 14th, when the Maintenance comes, if there's nothing up to that point, it's 'probably' safe to toss the rest of the month in the trash.

 

[N3ON]

Other than the demographic the character comes from.

Of all the demographics out there, the fitness game demographic has to be one of the ones that gives the fewest ****s about Smash Bros.

And yet WFT was included in Smash and there's no indication that they'd do things any differently with another fitness-related series. Your evidence that it was a mistake is myopic and entirely subjective. A character not being a fixture of discussion or high-level play after they get in is proof of nothing.

The demographic overlap or lack thereof is not a relevant factor. Sakurai's goal is to make Smash a giant crossover that celebrates gaming. He would've made Nintendogs playable too had they been more feasible. Nintendo isn't going to stop him from including a successful IP of theirs.

And if Nintendo picked a Ring Fit character, you ever think it would be so they could draw the Smash crowd to it? Did you pay attention to their marketing with the ARMS tease? It was followed by a free trial of the game. You're looking at things backwards.

Mostly though I just take issue with N30N's notion that the game is practically a lock for Smash just because it sold a lot.

Your counterpoints to dispute me are 1) solitaire exists and 2) Wii Fit Trainer was bad.

 

[BlondeLombax]

You know, speaking of ninja fighters in Smash, I wasted a few hours in Photoshop working on this, and if this site had downvotes, I'd probably be a pincushion because of this one image alone. Regardless, I expect this to go many, many ways.

Spoiler: Enjoy, or don't, makes no difference to me

This is disregarding the "Good Boys and Girls" rule. Now that I think about it, I probably should have kept that in mind while making this.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Iirc they removed it in Windows 8. Didn't know they added it back. lol

Yeah it's called Microsoft Solitaire Collection now and it has, like, a login and leveling and whatever.

Your counterpoints to dispute me are 1) solitaire exists

Technically my counterpoint is every game that's sold over 5 million copies and hasn't been added to Smash. Of which there are...many.

 

[N3ON]

Yeah it's called Microsoft Solitaire Collection now and it has, like, a login and leveling and whatever.
Technically my counterpoint is every game that's sold over 5 million copies and hasn't been added to Smash. Of which there are...many.

If Solitaire were a Nintendo series with a feasible character it would've been included in Smash 64.

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

If Solitaire were a Nintendo series with a feasible character it would've been included in Smash 64.

Napolean Bonaparte has entered the chat

 

[DarthEnderX]

If Solitaire were a Nintendo series with a feasible character it would've been included in Smash 64.

Are you saying Jack of Clubs isn't feasible?!

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

if nintendo allowed joker in smash to try to have a better relationship with atlus then lol that failed. can't even get one bloody mainline persona game on the switch.

Wasn't the reason for the lack of a port cited as some sort of console-exclusivity deal the game has with Sony? Who knows, Persona 6 might find its way to a Nintendo console.

Personally I’m actually glad third party developers don’t invest their time into porting their games on the switch. I’d rather not see development cater towards the lowest denominator when creating a game.

The Switch is decently powerful though, and for the most part, only the most expensive AAA titles would be unreasonable to port. Even graphically intensive games such as The Witcher III and Mortal Kombat 11 made it onto the Switch just fine, one as a later release, and the other as a simultaneous one.

This is disregarding the "Good Boys and Girls" rule. Now that I think about it, I probably should have kept that in mind while making this.

Yumi made it into BlazBlue Cross Tag Battle just fine. Granted, I'm sure the age rating is higher, but it does still prove that they can be added without the nsfw stuff. Of course, they'd still come with sexual themes, but so does Bayonetta so...

Are you saying Jack of Clubs isn't feasible?!

"Nintendo" was a key word there. I'd also say that picking a face card of a specific suit would be a bit odd. The face cards aren't really a concrete character (their design is incredibly dependent on who made the deck) and none of the suits are any more important than the other (not in solitaire at least). You might be able to make the Queen of Hearts a thing since Alice in Wonderland normalized the concept, but I'm still not sure how that would represent solitaire specifically.

 

[N3ON]

Are you saying Jack of Clubs isn't feasible?!

He'd just be an echo of Jack of Hearts.

But let's go back because it is an interesting point

Technically my counterpoint is every game that's sold over 5 million copies and hasn't been added to Smash. Of which there are...many.

How many are first-party with a feasible character?

I mean, that's my point. Sales at, like, Astral Chain level is one thing. Sales at the Splatoon level is another.

Especially when it's sales at the Splatoon level with a pool of other first-parties where, like... Waluigi is your biggest remaining character.

 

[Shroob]

I kinda love how soo many people went into this week with the mindset of "I got a good feeling about this week!"

And yet, me, the guy who's always trying to squeeze blood from a stone feels the complete opposite about this week. I... really don't think anything's coming.

 

[DarthEnderX]

He'd just be an echo of Jack of Hearts.

At least Jack of Clubs brings a new weapon type. Clubs.

You might be able to make the Queen of Hearts a thing since Alice in Wonderland normalized the concept, but I'm still not sure how that would represent solitaire specifically.

Pfff, I mean, if you just want to pander to the waifu crowd...

 

[Shroob]

At least Jack of Clubs brings a new weapon type. Clubs.


Pfff, I mean, if you just want to pander to the waifu crowd...

What if I told you


Villager's stick

Is technically a club

 

[---]

Will just state that I'd be totally in support of a Ring Fit character. The game is very charming, oozes a lot of modern Nintendo localization, and will legit get you sweating. I think there is enough to offer a moveset that's distinct from WFT as well.

Doubt it'll happen given the Spirit Event, but never say never I guess. At the very least I'd love to see an auto-scrolling stage using the game's outdoor sections. It's not an artsy game, but the color choices make a lot of things pop.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I will die on the hill, that some of the wacky characters like Ice Climbers, Duck Hunt Dog, Wii Fit Trainer, The Plant are more interesting picks then 90% of fan picks.

 

[Polan]

You know, speaking of ninja fighters in Smash, I wasted a few hours in Photoshop working on this, and if this site had downvotes, I'd probably be a pincushion because of this one image alone. Regardless, I expect this to go many, many ways.

Spoiler: Enjoy, or don't, makes no difference to me

View attachment 284948
This is disregarding the "Good Boys and Girls" rule. Now that I think about it, I probably should have kept that in mind while making this.

damn look at all those anime characters i don't know

 

[DarthEnderX]

I will die on the hill, that some of the wacky characters like Ice Climbers, Duck Hunt Dog, Wii Fit Trainer, The Plant are more interesting picks then 90% of fan picks.

breaks bottle

I'll be happy to kill you on that hill.

 

[SnowClaws]

You know, speaking of ninja fighters in Smash, I wasted a few hours in Photoshop working on this, and if this site had downvotes, I'd probably be a pincushion because of this one image alone. Regardless, I expect this to go many, many ways.

Spoiler: Enjoy, or don't, makes no difference to me

View attachment 284948
This is disregarding the "Good Boys and Girls" rule. Now that I think about it, I probably should have kept that in mind while making this.

It's fine, after all, I still think that there is the possibilities that Ayane or Kasumi from Dead or Alive can takes over Ryu Hayabusa's spot in Smash as being one of the fighter in the Fighter Pass. I just have this hunch that this is going to be a Min Min situation where someone from Koei Tecmo will pushes for this pick despite the presence and legacy of Ryu Hayabusa in Ninja Gaiden. Heck, those two characters are already playable protagonist in the modern NG, and this situation can still be a SSBU X NG, just without Hayabusa being the fighter, in my opinion.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

breaks bottle

I'll be happy to kill you on that hill.

Pulls out knife

Not if I will kill you on that hill first.

 

[zumaddy]

Napolean Bonaparte has entered the chat
View attachment 284949

Napoleon Bonaparte for Smash you say?

 

[Polan]

I will die on the hill, that some of the wacky characters like Ice Climbers, Duck Hunt Dog, Wii Fit Trainer, The Plant are more interesting picks then 90% of fan picks.

i'm joining you on that hill. give me more wacky character choices. give me goomba tower.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Pulls out knife

Not if I will kill you on that hill first.

Shoot, I shoulda picked a range weapon...

 

[osby]

What's weird is how a good chunk of FP1 has characters you can't play on Switch. Maybe Nintendo was banking on people buying up the 3DS dancing game.
But yea, I agree with the sentiment. Nintendo basically be:
View attachment 284944

Interesting character choice on that pic, considering how Banjo is the only DLC character without a game on Switch.

 

[3BitSaurus]

I will die on the hill, that some of the wacky characters like Ice Climbers, Duck Hunt Dog, Wii Fit Trainer, The Plant are more interesting picks then 90% of fan picks.

Eeeeeh. Depends on which wacky pick and fan pick you're talking about.

G&W is one of my favorite Melee newcomers, but I much prefer K. Rool and BK to WFT or Duck Hunt, not just because the former two were personal wants, but because they are characters I can actually play.

 

[Shroob]

Dunno who Nate is, but saw someone on ResetEra say they tweeted today about Nintendo news soon.


Considering I've never heard of anyone named Nate before, probably meaningless.

 

[PLATINUM7]

Dunno who Nate is, but saw someone on ResetEra say they tweeted today about Nintendo news soon.


Considering I've never heard of anyone named Nate before, probably meaningless.

NateDrake?

He's a big insider and pretty much one of the few that hasn't their credibility tarnished or thrown in the towel.

Unless there's another Nate, very surprised you haven't heard of him considering you tend to list insider talk whenever it happens.

 

[Shroob]

NateDrake?

He's a big insider and pretty much one of the few that hasn't their credibility tarnished or thrown in the towel.

Unless there's another Nate, very surprised you haven't heard of him considering you tend to list insider talk whenever it happens.

No, not NateDrake, some other Nate. Natehate or something.


I've legit never heard of this dude so it may be ignorant to do so, but I'm not giving it much credit.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Ha! That gave me a good laugh, if those 3 would have great relationship with Nintendo, we would have seen Resident Evil 7/2R/3R, any internal U4 Namco-Bandai game (Tekken 7, Soul Calibur 6, Ace Combat 7, Code Vein, Tales of Arise, ect) or any Yakuza title on Switch.

Gee it's almost like the Switch isn't as strong as the ps4 or Xbox 1 and that there isn't a magical Switch Port button to instantly have the game playable on the Switch without handheld mode forcing limitations.


Also I swear people who try to claim Dante would be OP never seem to realize that Bayo's Smash incarnation had some specific tools that made her OP while balance patches were nearly done due to Ultimate's development. Dante doesn't even have much aerial combat focus in his games as most of his moves need you on the ground

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Listen, normally I'm all for restraint when it comes to calling characters "locks", but when a series can sell around five million out of the gate, and has a feasible character to add, they're getting in. Even as far back as Smash 4 they probably would've gotten in. Now the bar is that much lower.

At this point the biggest draws for first-party (with very few exceptions) are going to come from the new IPs that hit it big.

Ring Fit has sold better than any Metroid game, any Kirby game, any Fire Emblem game, any Star Fox game, etc. etc. It's on track to be like Splatoon's initial performance. And while it lacks the fanbase popularity Inkling had, Inkling didn't get in based on demand anyway.

Assuming the next Smash arrives within a normal timeframe, the only situation in which I don't see the Ring Fit character getting in next time is if there is a complete paradigm shift in how they choose characters for the future instalment.

Ring Fit sold less than 4 million though. Whilst good for a new IP, it’s not as impressive on the Switch as it is on the Wii U like with Splatoon.

Also, there could easily just be a shift in focus to third-party characters for the next game. I mean, is anyone really going to buy a new Smash game because of the Ring Fit Trainer? Inkling was a much bigger draw in comparison.

 

[osby]

Ring Fit sold less than 4 million though. Whilst good for a new IP, it’s not as impressive on the Switch as it is on the Wii U like with Splatoon.

Also, there could easily just be a shift in focus to third-party characters for the next game. I mean, is anyone really going to buy a new Smash game because of the Ring Fit Trainer? Inkling was a much bigger draw in comparison.

It's not like every Smash character has to make people buy the game. As OP said, promotion goes both ways and having a successful Nintendo game in Smash is never a bad idea.

And people really should stop comparing every new Nintendo IP to Splatoon. That game sold exceptionally well and shouldn't be a standart to measure the success of other franchises. "Less than 4 million" is still super good sales numbers.

 

[Calamitas]

No, not NateDrake, some other Nate. Natehate or something.


I've legit never heard of this dude so it may be ignorant to do so, but I'm not giving it much credit.

Same guy, I think. I also just checked his Twitter, and couldn't find any Tweet on that.

Edit:
Nevermind, found it.

I have not heard of any General Direct for the month of September. We will be getting Nintendo related news soon.

— NateTheHate2 (@NateTheHate2) September 8, 2020

 

[True Blue Warrior]

As OP said, promotion goes both ways and having a successful Nintendo game in Smash is never a bad idea.

Which is something that loads of other characters can do as well.

And people should really stop comparing every new Nintendo IP to Splatoon.

Considering the whole discussion is about locks, comparisons are absolutely valid. The Inklings were shoo-in because they had nothing going against them and everything going for them. Animal Crossing had strong sales and it took until Smash 4 for Villager to make it in. The Ring Fit Trainer is no lock.

 

[Shroob]

Same guy, I think. I also just checked his Twitter, and couldn't find any Tweet on that.

Edit:
Nevermind, found it.

I have not heard of any General Direct for the month of September. We will be getting Nintendo related news soon.

— NateTheHate2 (@NateTheHate2) September 8, 2020

"Nintendo-related news" is such a vague term lol, it could mean literally anything.

 

[Calamitas]

"Nintendo-related news" is such a vague term lol, it could mean literally anything.

As could "soon". Today, this week, next week, this month. . . it really isn't saying much at all.

 

[Shroob]

As could "soon". Today, this week, next week, this month. . . it really isn't saying much at all.

I still feel like it'd be before the Maintenance personally, since Maintenance is usually when the 'big' things happen, but, we'll see.


It seems too early in the month for yet another Partner showcase, but also "Nintendo-related news" could mean literally anything.

 

[Calamitas]

I still feel like it'd be before the Maintenance personally, since Maintenance is usually when the 'big' things happen, but, we'll see.

It seems too early in the month for yet another Partner showcase, but also "Nintendo-related news" could mean literally anything.

It's honestly even too soon to claim that there is any real pattern for the Partner Showcases, I'd say. We had a grand total of two thus far. Not really enough to call it a pattern, I feel. What is more damning for one happening this week is that we had one just two weeks ago.

 

[I.D.]

Dunno who Nate is, but saw someone on ResetEra say they tweeted today about Nintendo news soon.


Considering I've never heard of anyone named Nate before, probably meaningless.

It's this guy

 

[True Blue Warrior]

If Solitaire were a Nintendo series with a feasible character it would've been included in Smash 64.

We have an OC and a plant as playable characters, characters we wouldn’t have seen as feasible before they became playable in Smash. Cards absolutely have the potential to have a working move set. I mean, the Sandbag is a playable character in a Smash fangame.

 

[Staarih]

Ring Fit sold less than 4 million though. Whilst good for a new IP, it’s not as impressive on the Switch as it is on the Wii U like with Splatoon.

Also, there could easily just be a shift in focus to third-party characters for the next game. I mean, is anyone really going to buy a new Smash game because of the Ring Fit Trainer? Inkling was a much bigger draw in comparison.

Ring Fit Adventure hasn't stop selling though, it'll easily get to 10million imo if the stock is there. There's a reason the game was the first to get an official Chinese reveal after the Mario games, while Zelda's etc still lack that.

Dunno if I'd call Ring Fit Trainer a "lock" but it is a pretty solid candidate to get in at some point.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Dunno if I'd call Ring Fit Trainer a "lock" but it is a pretty solid candidate to get in at some point.

This I agree with.