Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[N3ON]

That awkward moment when a pandemic gets you to celebrate half your anniversary in a year that's not your anniversary. xD

Everything looks good, but why they're doing a limited release for what would otherwise be an evergreen seller I'm sure I don't know. Nintendo is weird as hell sometimes often.

And, btw, the first thing I thought when I saw the updated 64 is "I bet they got rid of So Long Gay Bowser"
There goes my sixty bucks.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Everything looks good, but why they're doing a limited release for what would otherwise be an evergreen seller I'm sure I don't know. Nintendo is weird as hell sometimes often.

I think that the reason may have something to do with the fact that all those 3 games still have enough appeal to sell individually, and they don't want to sell them in a collection at the price of one game when the next gen they may re-release them separately and sell them again.
So in practice I think that they actually don't want to sell too many copies, and they're doing the limited time thing on purpose because of that. When they released All Stars on Wii it was limited as well, and all those games were also sold separately on Wii's Virtual Console.

EDIT: also I suppose that probably Sunshine doesn't fit with the current NSMB-like creative direction of the Mario franchise, maybe.

 

[Lamperouge]

3D All Stars and 3D World have me pretty hyped.

That being said, I still think we'll see something for Smash later in the month.

 

[Mamboo07]

1. No. If they couldn't make too many retail copies due to COVID-19, they would have just said so, kept the online release going indefinitely, and maybe provided more retail copies later.
2. lol no. This is the kind of thing people eat up. Like, if enough people bought the New Super Mario Bros. U collection then people will sure as heck buy this.

No, this is unfortunately a conscious decision on Nintendo's part to be anti-consumer.


I'll explain it, but first, I'll have to explain parallel universes...

"Marios, King Kooper has kidnapped Peach and stole our eggs!"

 

[MooMew64]

So, my thoughts on the Mario thingamabob:

- 3D World is heckin' hype and it's unfortunate that it got pushed back because that would've been a killer holiday game.

- 2D All-Stars on NSO makes the service actually worth a dang.

- 3D collection is rad but I own those three games and can replicate the enhancements on Dolphin so ehhhhh...Plus it's a limited time offer nonsense 'cause Nintendo still thinks the year is 1990, lol.

- Mario Kart AR is weird but I' sure kids will enjoy it. Probably crazy expensive.

- Mario Battle Royale is amazing but is being held back again by limited time nonsense. Not sure I see the business sense in this.

I give this Direct a solid /, not enough water or Wario.

 

[Deleted member]

So, uh......... Is the reason there’s no spirit event/tourney this week is because Nintendo thought it would somehow overshadow the Mario 35th anniversary direct........ or something??

 

[N3ON]

I think that the reason may have something to do with the fact that all those 3 games still have enough appeal to sell individually, and they don't want to sell them in a collection at the price of one game when the next gen they may re-release them separately and sell them again.
So in practice I think that they actually don't want to sell too many copies, and they're doing the limited time thing on purpose because of that. When they released All Stars on Wii it was limited as well, and all those games were also sold separately on Wii's Virtual Console.

Considering this is only going to exist for a few months, I doubt they're even going to wait until next gen to chop the collection up and sell it individually.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

3D All Stars and 3D World have me pretty hyped.

That being said, I still think we'll see something for Smash later in the month.

Yeah along with a partner showcase before Tokyo Game Show, I think are things I think we can expect this month from Nintendo.

Though how is everyone feeling about a new Mario rep now? To me today was a now or never moment for a Mario character being DLC. You would think with how everything lined up, at least a tease similar to ARMS back in March would have been given today if not a flat out reveal.

 

[MooMew64]

So, uh......... Is the reason there’s no spirit event/tourney this week is because Nintendo thought it would somehow overshadow the Mario 35th anniversary direct........ or something??

Gooigi was going to be revealed here in the Mario Direct as CP7, but he personally asked for Nintendo to wait a week so his good friend Luigi's brother wouldn't have his anniversary overshadowed by the big news.

Spoiler

Nah real talk IMO CP7 will probably be coming either next week or the week after: I personally don't see them pushing this into October unless Sakurai and the team got hit with huge problems that caused delays.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Yeah along with a partner showcase before Tokyo Game Show, I think are things I think we can expect this month from Nintendo.

Though how is everyone feeling about a new Mario rep now? To me today was a now or never moment for a Mario character being DLC. You would think with how everything lined up, at least a tease similar to ARMS back in March would have been given today if not a flat out reveal.

A little less confident but it could still happen. It's still a Mario month so we could end up getting a Mario reveal next week or the week after.

Fans of a certain Mario character still think he's a 100% lock though...

 

[N3ON]

Yeah along with a partner showcase before Tokyo Game Show, I think are things I think we can expect this month from Nintendo.

Though how is everyone feeling about a new Mario rep now? To me today was a now or never moment for a Mario character being DLC. You would think with how everything lined up, at least a tease similar to ARMS back in March would have been given today if not a flat out reveal.

People gotta stop expecting Smash to show up in events that aren't either a) a Smash-specific showing or b) a generalized showing.

By this reasoning there shouldn't be a Pokemon character either because it didn't show up in the earlier Pokemon Directs.

Smash does its own thing.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Welp.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

A little less confident but it could still happen. It's still a Mario month so we could end up getting a Mario reveal next week or the week after.

Fans of a certain Mario character still think he's a 100% lock though...

I am tempted to go into the thread for that character, but I feel like I would be walking into Chernobyl without a hazmat suit.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I am tempted to go into the thread for that character, but I feel like I would be walking into Chernobyl without a hazmat suit.

It certainly feels like it at times

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Curb Your Enthusiam theme plays

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Michael the Spikester]

There is a possibility we could be waiting until next month as I'd think Nintendo would want the hype for the Mario Anniversary to happen for a while before moving to Smash.

 

[Goombaic]

Pretty sure I said this before, but if a Mario character gets in this pass, it will most likely not be because of the anniversary. It will be due to raw fan demand. Nintendo wouldn't choose Geno, Waluigi, Toad, etc. to promote Mario when the characters in the game already do that pretty well (as seen by that tourney event).

 

[MooMew64]

TBH I was never really sold on the idea of another Mario rep coming was all that likely. I entertained the idea of Paper Mario a little bit because of the absence of Spirits, but nah lol Spirits came anyways.

Unless there's a new game they want to promote, I really don't think any franchise that already has loads of content in Smash like Mario is gonna get more via DLC unless it's Pokemon because, well, it's Pokemon, and even then it's not 100% guaranteed IMO.

 

[clearandsweet]

Yeah along with a partner showcase before Tokyo Game Show, I think are things I think we can expect this month from Nintendo.

Though how is everyone feeling about a new Mario rep now? To me today was a now or never moment for a Mario character being DLC. You would think with how everything lined up, at least a tease similar to ARMS back in March would have been given today if not a flat out reveal.

Was anyone expecting a Mario character at all for this fighter's pass? Paper Mario released a game and got a spirit event. Were people expecting Waluigi or Captain Toad or something?

More than anything else, this gives me a picture of what E3 would have been this year. Min Min + FP7 would have been announced. But all this Mario stuff and no Mario character, and that they still haven't dropped FP7 has me thinking FP7 is related to some other game/thing that was scheduled for E3 but that we haven't seen yet.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Whoops.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Honestly the real reason is probably Nintendo thinking it'd be too valuable, 64 and Galaxy are available for Wii U VC for half of this collection's price and Nintendo DID get rid pf their NSO voucher **** in the US got scrapped because Nintendo thought 20 bucks was just too good of a discount

 

[Animegamingnerd]

Was anyone expecting a Mario character at all for this fighter's pass? Paper Mario released a game and got a spirit event. Were people expecting Waluigi or Captain Toad or something?

More than anything else, this gives me a picture of what E3 would have been this year. Min Min + FP7 would have been announced. But all this Mario stuff and no Mario character, and that they still haven't dropped FP7 has me thinking FP7 is related to some other game/thing that was scheduled for E3 but that we haven't seen yet.

Like at least 2/3 of this thread thought at one point, there is a decent chance we would get a Mario rep, in fact a new Mario rep might have been the most talked about first party franchise to get one for this pass.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

If we were going to get any Smash Bros character in a Mario 35th anniversary direct, we would have definitely gotten Mario 2.

 

[Mamboo07]

A little less confident but it could still happen. It's still a Mario month so we could end up getting a Mario reveal next week or the week after.

Fans of a certain Mario character still think he's a 100% lock though...

Geno?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

If we were going to get any Smash Bros character in a Mario 35th anniversary direct, we would have definitely gotten Mario 2.

We already have Mario 2, we'd have Mario 3 instead

 

[Lamperouge]

Geno?

Nah, it's obviously Tatanga from Super Mario Land because Nintendo remembered that game exists and actually included it in their montage.

 

[Schnee117]

We already have Mario 2, we'd have Mario 3 instead

Um Acktually it'd be Mario 77

 

[MooMew64]

Nah, it's obviously Tatanga from Super Mario Land because Nintendo remembered that game exists and actually included it in their montage.

Okay now see this is a Mario rep I can get behind.

Also Wart.

Pls add Wart Nintendo SMB2 is GotY every year.

 

[SKX31]

Parden, what is BLJ?

For a more complete description of why it works:

The first frame of Mario's long jump accelerates his speed in 64, which is notable when one uses the long jump normally. Long Jumping backwards is possible (and it registers as negative speed as he's jumping backwards). Althought the game resets Mario's speed soon after the first frame. Backwards Long Jumping into a obstacle though...

That's when the BLJ becomes powerful: because the obstacle resets Mario's collision before the second frame of the jump. Since the initial burst of speed is still there, and Mario's still technically "grounded" it allows Mario to BLJ again and again. Stacking them and the negative speed on top of each other. Each BLJ stack multiplies the effect too. There's no cap for negative speed either, making BLJs the fastest way to get ludicrous speed and enter parallel universes. This tool-assisted speedrun takes advantage of BLJs to jump through many, many parallel universes...

...just so Mario can open a door while underwater. And it's the fastest strat too (11:30 in the video):

We already have Mario 2, we'd have Mario 3 instead

Blue Mario you say?

Count me in.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

If we were going to get any Smash Bros character in a Mario 35th anniversary direct, we would have definitely gotten Mario 2.

Oh crap

does this mean the Gardevoir/Gothitelle leak was real all along?

obvious joke

 

[Guynamednelson]

Nah real talk IMO CP7 will probably be coming either next week or the week after: I personally don't see them pushing this into October unless Sakurai and the team got hit with huge problems that caused delays.

Even with having to move their equipment home, the division of the Smash team that worked on Terry should have had enough time for their next fighter to be 99% complete by now.

 

[Powerman293]

This year would be bearable if it actually had a good line up.

 

[Deleted member]

Um Acktually it'd be Mario 77

No, it would be Mario 776.

 

[Karen6969]

Yeah along with a partner showcase before Tokyo Game Show, I think are things I think we can expect this month from Nintendo.

Though how is everyone feeling about a new Mario rep now? To me today was a now or never moment for a Mario character being DLC. You would think with how everything lined up, at least a tease similar to ARMS back in March would have been given today if not a flat out reveal.

This morning I was thinking that Geno/Waluigi were done as far as being fighter pass characters go and would have to bank on being a random bonus fighter or maybe hope to be added as an echo fighter or something. But, now that we know that the tournament is later this year I think they have one last chance.

Edit- probably unlikely that either of them would get added for the tournament though. I’m pretty sure that I saw that Wario/Yoshi won’t be playable so why would Waluigi or Geno be? If they aren’t playable I don’t think they’d add them to coincide with the tournament, I guess

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Though how is everyone feeling about a new Mario rep now? To me today was a now or never moment for a Mario character being DLC. You would think with how everything lined up, at least a tease similar to ARMS back in March would have been given today if not a flat out reveal.

I think it's much less likely at this point. This goes for both Waluigi and Geno.

 

[epicmartin7]

So... considering 3D World amiibo were announced for February, I thought I'd have some fun and put that date into my Amiibo Theory equations with the assumption that new Smash amiibo release around the same time. (Note: Amiibo release is same day as game release. So input is Febbruary 12th, 2021)

According to my Average model, Challenger Pack 8 might release on February 20th, 2021 or March 14th, 2021.

Of course, don't take as gospel.. as well... it's based on assumption and is just math. It's just fun to do lol.

Amiibo theory operates based on the amiibo releasing with a fighter, not fighters releasing with amiibo. So far, all the amiibo released did so in close proximity to a new fighter. There weren't any amiibo released between Byleth's wave and Joker and Hero, so amiibo theory can't be confirmed or denied because nothing happened involving it. If an amiibo wave was released in March, then another in May, amiibo theory would take a hit because they're not synchronized with the fighters' release. However, the amiibo released so far did so around the same time as a new fighter, so the theory is still upheld.

Also, I wanted to quote this post as I wanted to explain what I did for Min-Min. TL;DR, I was contemplating scrapping my work, however, I decided to label Min-Min as an exception. Not because she has no data, but because her data is different.

Just like other fighters, Min-Min did release around something. However, it wasn't an amiibo release date.. it was an amiibo restock date for Smash amiibo in June.

Now... I was very skeptical to use this date as a fill-in, however, I remembered something crucial. The restock date actually got delayed. It was originally in April believe it or not.

And then in the initial ARMS reveal from March, they said they needed to extend the development time of the character. I... basically put two and two together and just decided to count it as it seemed both were delayed at the same time, which to me, bolster my confidence in some correlation (potentially.)

And with amiibo waves finally becoming a thing again with Joker and Hero releasing in September... I do think Min-Min's release status was certainly a exception in my opinion.

Heck my JPN math model using the restock date was actually only one day off from the actual release date. Now... again, that doesn't mean anything and I only look at it as a statistical fluke, but I just thought it was hilarious as it unintentionally adds fuel to the fire LOL.

(Note: This was a previous version that did not use Min-Min's restock date to influence the equation. Also, in converted form, 547 represents June 30th, which is Min-Min's actual release. Again, do not take it seriously, I just found this result pretty humorous. I'm actually unsure if the restock date happened in other regions, so this might not even be accurate LOL.)

 

[MooMew64]

Even with having to move their equipment home, the division of the Smash team that worked on Terry should have had enough time for their next fighter to be 99% complete by now.

I'm not willing personally to 100% bet on that when Nintendo as a whole has had numerous issues with the work from home situation due to their more traditional business culture and operations. I think CP7 is very likely for this month, but things are fluid right now, it's best to be respectful of that and wait and see IMO. We won't really know fully how things are going until we get another Sakurai Presents that allows Sakurai to speak on development again.

Basically what I'm getting at here is: CP7 is, in my opinion, probably releasing this month, but there is always the chance it could be later as well as we have nothing that concretely tells us it's coming until Nintendo says it's coming, and given difficulties right now there is always the chance of delays.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

One thing I noticed no one talking about is that they showed a clip of Mario in a F.L.U.D.D.less level with F.L.U.D.D. on his back. Did they add F.L.U.D.D. back into the F.L.U.D.D.less levels?

 

[Karen6969]

I think it's much less likely at this point. This goes for both Waluigi and Geno.

I’m sure it won’t be long before some of the Waluigi and especially geno fans find a way to spin this into them being more likely somehow.

Before the direct- Geno is basically a lock if there’s a Mario direct!!!


After- well, they wouldn’t have included him in an anniversary shadow dropped direct anyways... hes basically a lock to be the pass closer now!!!

 

[Deleted member]

I was joking with my roomate literally 10 minutes ago that they would remove BLJ from Mario 64.
I hate myself sometimes.

That awkward moment when a pandemic gets you to celebrate half your anniversary in a year that's not your anniversary. xD

Everything looks good, but why they're doing a limited release for what would otherwise be an evergreen seller I'm sure I don't know. Nintendo is weird as hell sometimes often.

And, btw, the first thing I thought when I saw the updated 64 is "I bet they got rid of So Long Gay Bowser"
There goes my sixty bucks.

You two can predict the future... Please tell me...

When will Terraria 1.4.1 come out for Steam?

I'm still buying the collection.

It's not perfect and some of the tactics are questionable, but I still feel it's worth the bang for my buck.

Am hype enough, lol.

That is the spirit!

 

[SneakyLink]

One thing I noticed no one talking about is that they showed a clip of Mario in a F.L.U.D.D.less level with F.L.U.D.D. on his back. Did they add F.L.U.D.D. back into the F.L.U.D.D.less levels?

Once you beat a F.L.U.D.D.less level and return to it you can use F.L.U.D.D. and compete in a red coin challenge.