Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[RileyXY1]

Late September if anything. Remember amiibo theory. The Joker and Hero ones release October 2nd so bets are on the last week of September.

However, Amibo compatibility was often added independently of new fighters, and sometimes they even released patches that added nothing but Amiibo compatibility.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

It is funny to me that a year ago there was grumbling by some about how underwhelming the 9/4 Direct was in comparison to others.

Little did we know how spoiled we were given the various non events or minor presentations that came in the 12 months after (Game Awards, Mini-Directs, Partner Showcases).

 

[StrangeKitten]

However, Amibo compatibility was often added independently of new fighters, and sometimes they even released patches that added nothing but Amiibo compatibility.

Sheesh, man. Are you ever optimistic about anything?

I think Amiibo theory is very likely. Even if we don't get a first-party Direct, we could get a trailer or a "Sakurai Presents ???". I don't think it would make sense to wait much longer than late September/early October for CP7's release. They still have four characters to go after that, all of which would release with an average of three months between releases. Which sounds reasonable to me.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Sheesh, man. Are you ever optimistic about anything?

Actually yes. He was confident about Super Smash Bros. showing up in the next Nintendo Direct assuming it wasn't another Partner Showcase.

It was indeed another Partner Showcase but that's besides the point.

Also he's not necessarily being pessimistic here, he just doesn't think that the next character is necessarily going to coincide with the next Amiibo update.

 

[SharkLord]

Actually yes. He was confident about Super Smash Bros. showing up in the next Nintendo Direct assuming it wasn't another Partner Showcase.

It was indeed another Partner Showcase but that's besides the point.

Also he's not necessarily being pessimistic here, he just doesn't think that the next character is necessarily going to coincide with the next Amiibo update.

Amiibo theory doesn't necessarily mean fighters will release in the same update as the amiibo compatibility ones, though; They just release around the same time. It's a vague indicator rather than an exact date. Every amiibo wave so far has been released around the same time as a new fighter, so we'll be using that as a basis until proven otherwise.

 

[RileyXY1]

Amiibo theory doesn't necessarily mean fighters will release in the same update as the amiibo compatibility ones, though; They just release around the same time. It's a vague indicator rather than an exact date. Every amiibo wave so far has been released around the same time as a new fighter, so we'll be using that as a basis until proven otherwise.

However, Min Min was only released alongside the announcement of new amiibo, rather than the release.

 

[Teeb147]

Definitely think september should be time for nintendo to show us stuff. Nothing to go on, just feels like it's time XD

Not going to rely on insiders for directs anymore too.

 

[SharkLord]

However, Min Min was only released alongside the announcement of new amiibo, rather than the release.

Amiibo theory operates based on the amiibo releasing with a fighter, not fighters releasing with amiibo. So far, all the amiibo released did so in close proximity to a new fighter. There weren't any amiibo released between Byleth's wave and Joker and Hero, so amiibo theory can't be confirmed or denied because nothing happened involving it. If an amiibo wave was released in March, then another in May, amiibo theory would take a hit because they're not synchronized with the fighters' release. However, the amiibo released so far did so around the same time as a new fighter, so the theory is still upheld.

 

[MooMew64]

Man, seems like that last Partner Showcase really did a number on the mood around here.

Nothing is a guarantee unless Nintendo themselves confirms it, but assuming development hasn't hit any significant snags, September looks good regardless of the amiibo wave given the general timing of character releases. Obviously things could be changed and be coming later, but there really isn't any reason to believe so right now.

For me personally, I see no reason to be doom and gloom about the chances of another character coming in September. Nintendo has typically been highlighting at least one announcement from them themselves per-month, and a given the gap we've had now with Min Min and operating on the assumption development is progressing nicely, September looks good IMO. Time will tell.

 

[RileyXY1]

Amiibo theory operates based on the amiibo releasing with a fighter, not fighters releasing with amiibo.

But still, considering that amiibo has been released without a fighter, we cannot say for certain that the next fighter will be released alongside the next wave of amiibo.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Does anyone know who Mat Piscatella is? Cause he tweeted the words “Nintendo Direct” then deleted the tweet within minutes according to the Era Direct thread

 

[Blankiturayman]

If you think about it, Min Min might've been the only one not to release around an amiibo release because to begin with, there were no new amiibo to go with her. Characters prior to her had new amiibo being released around the same time rather than restocks. So going off that, since now we have new amiibo (Joker and Hero) it seems pretty plausible to think character 7 could be released around that time too.

 

[SharkLord]

If you think about it, Min Min might've been the only one not to release around an amiibo release because to begin with, there were no new amiibo to go with her. Characters prior to her had new amiibo being released around the same time rather than restocks. So going off that, since now we have new amiibo (Joker and Hero) it seems pretty plausible to think character 7 could be released around that time too.

Yeah, this is what I'm getting at. I emphasize that every amiibo releases around the same timeframe as a new fighter because Min Min didn't have any amiibo. Amiibo theory is neither confirmed nor contradicted by Min Min because there's nothing going on during her timeframe.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Man, seems like that last Partner Showcase really did a number on the mood around here.

Nothing is a guarantee unless Nintendo themselves confirms it, but assuming development hasn't hit any significant snags, September looks good regardless of the amiibo wave given the general timing of character releases. Obviously things could be changed and be coming later, but there really isn't any reason to believe so right now.

For me personally, I see no reason to be doom and gloom about the chances of another character coming in September. Nintendo has typically been highlighting at least one announcement from them themselves per-month, and a given the gap we've had now with Min Min and operating on the assumption development is progressing nicely, September looks good IMO. Time will tell.

I don't see why the next fighter wouldn't be released sometime soon. Everything else from Nintendo I'm giving a probably not (which will become a definitely not if Mario gets nothing for his anniversary) but the next DLC character is the one thing I'm pretty sure can and will happen soon.

Does anyone know who Mat Piscatella is? Cause he tweeted the words “Nintendo Direct” then deleted the tweet within minutes according to the Era Direct thread

He is, like all leakers, someone who likes to play with your emotions.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

If the next character is released in early/mid-September, I'd say it still gives that amiibo theory some credit; close enough. I'm not holding out on a late September/early October release because that just doesn't seem likely in the slightest to me.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Waluigi is going to be the next DLC character.

Spoiler

Well maybe

 

[SharkLord]

If the next character is released in early/mid-September, I'd say it still gives that amiibo theory some credit; close enough. I'm not holding out on a late September/early October release because that just doesn't seem likely in the slightest to me.

Considering FP1's patterns and the longer release period, I'd say September and October are both fairly reasonable release dates. September would fit in with the two and a half-month period for FP1, while October would imply a three-month waiting period to accommodate the longer release time, which would add an extra month to the waiting period.

 

[Cosmic77]

The main reason why amiibo theory has worked out well so far is because we had so many new fighters and vets in the base roster without amiibo that we were literally getting new amiibo waves every other month.

If they do the bare minimum and release only two amiibo for each wave, that still means F11 would release around the same time as F9 and F10's amiibo. It usually takes about nine months to make an amiibo, and considering how long it took for us to get Cloud, Corrin, Bayo, Joker, and Hero...

 

[Miles of SmashWiki]

Hey, in my mind any delay on the DLC at this point is negated by the fact that last year we were promised Banjo in "fall" and he came out on September 4, which is about as early as possible where that could be considered "fall". Stuff gets done when it gets done and we'll get it when we get it. I'm eager for more content too, don't get me wrong, but there's no benefit in getting impatient.

Also we did just get new Smash content released in the last 24 hours, people. Yeah, it's just a few spirits, but it is new content. It's not like they've forgotten to give you stuff to play. I liked metal Pac-Man as a stapler. Small Battlefield wasn't that long ago, either.

 

[SpectreJordan]

Sheesh, man. Are you ever optimistic about anything?

I think Amiibo theory is very likely. Even if we don't get a first-party Direct, we could get a trailer or a "Sakurai Presents ???". I don't think it would make sense to wait much longer than late September/early October for CP7's release. They still have four characters to go after that, all of which would release with an average of three months between releases. Which sounds reasonable to me.

We can hope but 2020 keeps finding new ways to suck. :/

It’s just sort of sad that it doesn’t look like we’ll know who the characters are until they’re just about to come out for a while. I liked the characters getting revealed & then letting the reveal soak in for a while before getting our hands on.

It helped with the waits between characters too because we’d be eagerly awaiting character releases alongside reveals. Now that they’re basically the same day it’s become a lot more aggravating.

 

[StrangeKitten]

We can hope but 2020 keeps finding new ways to suck. :/

It’s just sort of sad that it doesn’t look like we’ll know who the characters are until they’re just about to come out for a while. I liked the characters getting revealed & then letting the reveal soak in for a while before getting our hands on.

It helped with the waits between characters too because we’d be eagerly awaiting character releases alongside reveals. Now that they’re basically the same day it’s become a lot more aggravating.

I think we went over this a couple days ago, but I feel the same way on characters releasing. I like getting a trailer and then a couple weeks to a month of wondering how exactly the character will play. The last two have been "Here's Sakurai's in-depth breakdown of the character. Nothing is left to the imagination, you can play them in two weeks". And like, I feel like that came off as more negative than I intend it to be. It's not really bad, it's just that I like getting a trailer that doesn't reveal the whole kit, and wondering what the rest will be like. You're right in that it makes the wait more exciting, too.

I completely understand if the rest of the characters have to be revealed this way. Maybe it's the easiest way, and covid means they need to do it the easiest way. I just prefer the other way

 

[SpectreJordan]

I think we went over this a couple days ago, but I feel the same way on characters releasing. I like getting a trailer and then a couple weeks to a month of wondering how exactly the character will play. The last two have been "Here's Sakurai's in-depth breakdown of the character. Nothing is left to the imagination, you can play them in two weeks". And like, I feel like that came off as more negative than I intend it to be. It's not really bad, it's just that I like getting a trailer that doesn't reveal the whole kit, and wondering what the rest will be like. You're right in that it makes the wait more exciting, too.

I completely understand if the rest of the characters have to be revealed this way. Maybe it's the easiest way, and covid means they need to do it the easiest way. I just prefer the other way

I don’t think it has to be this way. They could drop the reveal trailers even if there’s no Direct. They did this for Robin/Lucina in Smash 4. Just announce a live stream for a trailer a day before or so.

 

[Deleted member]

Does anyone know who Mat Piscatella is? Cause he tweeted the words “Nintendo Direct” then deleted the tweet within minutes according to the Era Direct thread

1) Someone legit who posted it, then deleted because it was too early and it means nothing

2) A Fake leaker who posted it, then deleted it immediately knowing people would still notice and think it was real


Either of these.

 

[Powerman293]

Amiibo theory is next on the chopping block for its credibility. Wouldn't surprise me for Nintendo to drop a tweet next week for the amiibo dates and no mention of a Smash Direct.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Man, seems like that last Partner Showcase really did a number on the mood around here.

Nothing is a guarantee unless Nintendo themselves confirms it, but assuming development hasn't hit any significant snags, September looks good regardless of the amiibo wave given the general timing of character releases. Obviously things could be changed and be coming later, but there really isn't any reason to believe so right now.

For me personally, I see no reason to be doom and gloom about the chances of another character coming in September. Nintendo has typically been highlighting at least one announcement from them themselves per-month, and a given the gap we've had now with Min Min and operating on the assumption development is progressing nicely, September looks good IMO. Time will tell.

With the rate of fire Nintendo's been going at, Nintendo could reveal the fighter way late into the cycle of September all of a sudden and not release it until maybe into October. And it might only be one fighter, with radio silence for possibly the rest of the year. And then it'll be back to waiting for new first-party titles that may not get revealed anytime soon.

I don't really like being super pessimistic anymore, but that is technically how they did it the last two times, and without reassurance that their next Partner Showcase won't precede new first-party reveals that aren't shadowdropped, this could be the new standard.

 

[SKX31]

Considering FP1's patterns and the longer release period, I'd say September and October are both fairly reasonable release dates. September would fit in with the two and a half-month period for FP1, while October would imply a three-month waiting period to accommodate the longer release time, which would add an extra month to the waiting period.

So going by those for the sake of argument:

Two and a half months:

FP7: Mid September
FP8: The November / December boundary
FP9: Mid-February 2021
FP10: Early May 2021
FP11: Late July 2021

Three months:

FP7: October
FP8: Jaunary 2021
FP9: April 2021
FP10: July 2021
FP11: October 2021

Of course, these are not final predictions or anything. And there are other variables at play here: Patch 8.1 was certainly Sakurai / Nintendo's reaction to #FixUltimateOnline since they not only doubled the packet send rate in 1v1 matches without spectators, but also promised further improvements to the online. Small Battlefield is also mainly meant for the competitive crowd since it effectively is a Kalos PKMN League without transformations. Also, the Elite Smash threshold was increased from top 3,5 % to top 6 %.

These promises could certainly affect and possibly delay DLC development - since manpower ain't infinite.

(Sidenote: As someone who plays by competitive rules 8.1's been a good step forward. Of course, Ultimate's online is still in a bad spot, but the ES increase and the packet send rate increase has lead to more consistent matches, even if by just small amounts. Small Battlefield's also a good stage and spices up online some.)

 

[Deleted member]

Three months:

FP7: October
FP8: Jaunary 2021
FP9: April 2021
FP10: July 2021
FP11: October 2021

This honestly seems like the safest bet. it would probably be within the first week or two of the month and, if we're lucky, we'd get an announcement the month prior in its final week.

 

[Calamitas]

Nate has been going a bit more into detail with everything surrounding that last partner showcase.

Basically: Chaos behind the scenes, plans changed last minute-ish, he doesn't expect any general Directs this year anymore at this point, keep an eye out on Twitter.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Nate has been going a bit more into detail with everything surrounding that last partner showcase.

Basically: Chaos behind the scenes, plans changed last minute-ish, he doesn't expect any general Directs this year anymore at this point, keep an eye out on Twitter.

despite all this i just wish theyd be more transparent. like "hey dont expect any full directs until a vaccine for COVID is out" or something like that

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Could we still get FP7 announced st least with another Sakurai presentation?

 

[SpectreJordan]

Does it have something to do with not wanting to anger stockholders? I guess not announcing anything is better than delaying a product in their eyes?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Could we still get FP7 announced st least with another Sakurai presentation?

100% yes.

"Will we" is the more uncertain question. I say they probably will though.

 

[N3ON]

It's unfortunate Nintendo doesn't even see fit to show trailers that just have the game slated to be "coming soon". It's not like you need a release date. I understand that things are very much up in the air these days, and thus committing to release dates is something companies are shying away from, but simply showing a game or two that is set to release at some point would help mollify a fanbase that is currently quite impatient and irate.

I mean, they did that with Pokemon Snap, and people were just happy to see that the game existed.

But as it is now, it does seem like Nintendo is putting all their eggs in the 2021 basket. Minus maybe a couple more not-entirely-new titles or lower budget stuff which will probably only receive unceremonious twitter drops, as was to be somewhat expected after the previous two non-Poke first-party reveals.

 

[MarioRaccoon]

Does anyone know who Mat Piscatella is? Cause he tweeted the words “Nintendo Direct” then deleted the tweet within minutes according to the Era Direct thread

He is an NPD analyst. He is a serious guy, not some teenage kid who posts fake leaks on the internet for his 15 seconds of fame.

if he says something, believe him.

 

[Calamitas]

Okay, so now that I've watched Nate's video in full, here's a bit of a (hopefully) better summary of the situation.
He actually never heard anything about a Direct announcement to begin with. Instead, he only heard of three first-party game that were supposedly intended to be revealed today, and therefore assumed that that would have to take place during a Direct of some kind. However, since he doesn't contact his sources all too often (maybe once per month or every couple of weeks), these plans have since been outdated, hence the Partner Showcase this week. He also seeme to have acted under the assumption that the 3D Mario collection was intended to be a September release, but thinks that a September reveal with a holiday release window is more likely.

And a personal thought I want to add to this: Since Kelios was acting all coy and saying something about us having to only wait a few more days now, I'd assume that he might have some more up-to-date information.

 

[MooMew64]

Interesting thing to note is we have sources from earlier this year (the original Super Mario Remasters sources) hinting at some of the things Nate has shared here. I wonder if he's spoken with them, and this is why he's changed his tune on General Directs? It is interesting this is the second time now he's claimed that these were "last minute changes".

Whether or not this is simple damage control from Nate or not, it fits into what I was already feeling myself, so I can believe it regardless. Hopefully this will better set the tone for people this year.

 

[SharkLord]

Okay, so now that I've watched Nate's video in full, here's a bit of a (hopefully) better summary of the situation.
He actually never heard anything about a Direct announcement to begin with. Instead, he only heard of three first-party game that were supposedly intended to be revealed today, and therefore assumed that that would have to take place during a Direct of some kind. However, since he doesn't contact his sources all too often (maybe once per month or every couple of weeks), these plans have since been outdated, hence the Partner Showcase this week. He also seeme to have acted under the assumption that the 3D Mario collection was intended to be a September release, but thinks that a September reveal with a holiday release window is more likely.

And a personal thought I want to add to this: Since Kelios was acting all coy and saying something about us having to only wait a few more days now, I'd assume that he might have some more up-to-date information.

So basically, we'll have to take Nate's words with a grain of salt in the future, assuming he always jumps to conclusions like this. Also, don't jump to conclusions, kids. SSBU doesn't have Board The Platforms included.

 

[Calamitas]

Interesting thing to note is we have sources from earlier this year (the original Super Mario Remasters sources) hinting at some of the things Nate has shared here. I wonder if he's spoken with them, and this is why he's changed his tune on General Directs? It is interesting this is the second time now he's claimed that these were "last minute changes".

Whether or not this is simple damage control from Nate or not, it fits into what I was already feeling myself, so I can believe it regardless. Hopefully this will better set the tone for people this year.

Considering that pretty much every insider has cited last minute changes at some point this year, I'm inclined to believe him on this.

 

[MooMew64]

Considering that pretty much every insider has cited last minute changes, I'm inclined to believe him on this.

It would seem either way we've been dealing with out of date info and clearly things have been different at Nintendo for the worse. Marketing was among some of the worst hit by the pandemic according to Furukawa, and this all lines up with that.

I sincerely hope that Nintendo is able to get things going again next year. It sounds like they've had a rough go of it, and with what we know about how they seem to operate, I can imagine they've had a harder time than most dealing with this when there was absolutely no way to prepare for it. Ah well, at least expectations can be better fitted now.

 

[Cosmic77]

I won't wallow in despair until after September. As unprecedented as it would be, they could still reveal Holiday 2020 stuff next month. That would be about a two month gap, just like Origami King and Pikmin 3 Deluxe. Not saying we'll get anything, but at least hold on to hope for one more month.

Anyway, this latest Partner Showcase is just further proof that people shouldn't put too much stock in what insiders say, regardless of how reliable they are. Nintendo has made a lot of sudden and last-minute changes this year, so the information these insiders get might not be accurate anymore.