Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Will]

Zelda reps?

The only acceptable answer:

that's not tingle

 

[Teeb147]

Zelda reps?

The only acceptable answer:View attachment 283429

Yes I still want Impa in smash

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I always took the "new worlds" thing as a general statement of intent, not so much a rigid promise for every single new DLC character. Nintendo, even with potentially forgotten PR statements, is not the type to box themselves in that concretely, especially if there as an opportunity for another fighter whose setting already happened to be in Smash.

If the likes of Nintendo and/or Sakurai want a Geno in in the game for example, that his particular universe/world is largely already being in the game will not likely stop them. Same with a Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, or a Sonic character. The overall ratio of fighters will be pretty fresh to Smash I suspect, but a couple of exceptions to that is hardly out of the question.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

I don't really think that Zelda is getting a new characters for different reason... but isn't the "new world" quote about fighter pass 1? I don't think they mentionned that for pass 2.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I've already stated how speculation has certain parts of it that work similarly to the Scientific method, but altering hypotheses based on the outcomes one receives is...literally how "theories" usually come into existence. The "hypothesis" seeks to explain something, and then an experiment occurs. Based on the results of the experiment, the hypothesis either changes or is proven to be correct, which is then put to the test in repeated experiments to see if it is a constant, thereby becoming a theory.

Pointing out that those points have changed overtime isn't really an own, it's just pointing out how hypotheses work.

That's basically how "rules" change. There's nothing especially significant about subtle changes to what people consider the framework of the DLC. I think trying to discredit it based on that is not really accurate, because not only is that consistent as M MooMew64 said, but expecting folks to be 100% accurate 100% of the time isn't really giving a fair shake either.

There's also the fact that each Ultimate DLC choice has fit the current "framework" so far, but I also don't think any character that doesn't fit that mold should be considered dead in the water either.

As Koopaul said:

I always interpreted "new worlds" to mean a package of content that's represents something new to Smash. This could be an entire series or a single game.

I strongly believe that all the fighters in the pass will be the representative for an entire series that doesn't have a stage or character or the representative for a single game that doesn't have a stage or character.

So look at a character and ask yourself if they fit into one of those two categories.

I think this is an important question to ask, because it logically would put a handful of characters in a different standing. "Which characters could thematically bring a new stage and music?" Even if people hate to read it, series with unique entries (new Pokemon region and characters, new Xenoblade world/setting and characters, new Fire Emblem universe/setting and characters) and previously unrepresented 3rd parties have a much easier time fitting into the Challenger Pack model. It doesn't mean that a Mario character, or a Zelda character, or a Kirby character can't work, but it doesn't fit the Challenger Pack model, as we know it, as well as those previously mentioned.

That's not a slight toward anybody's most wanted, either. It's just an observation based on the examples of Fighter Pass 1 and Min Min.

 

[TheBeastHimself]

It doesn't mean that a Mario character, or a Zelda character, or a Kirby character can't work, but it doesn't fit the Challenger Pack model, as we know it, as well as those previously mentioned.

That's not a slight toward anybody's most wanted, either. It's just an observation based on the examples of Fighter Pass 1 and Min Min.

Let it sink in that right now, it can be argued that Fortnite Jonesy has more eligibility than most popular 1st party picks.

EDIT: Not bashing the character, just stating that what many believe to be expected can be certainly unexpected.

 

[Schnee117]

Even before Byleth was revealed there were people arguing that Three Houses would technically count as a "new world" precisely because Three Houses is an entirely new cast of characters in an entirely new setting. But acknowledging that kills the narrative people want to sell I guess.

 

[Idon]

Even before Byleth was revealed there were people arguing that Three Houses would technically count as a "new world" precisely because Three Houses is an entirely new cast of characters in an entirely new setting. But acknowledging that kills the narrative people want to sell I guess.

Also the crackpot theorists that were pointing how that "Hey it's kinda really suspicious that we haven't had Three Houses spirits despite it making gangbusters"

 

[Schnee117]

Also the crackpot theorists that were pointing how that "Hey it's kinda really suspicious that we haven't had Three Houses spirits despite it making gangbusters"

And then the collective "Oh ****" moment people had when we randomly got those Astral Chain spirits the week Byleth got revealed

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Here's how the "new universe" rule has evolved.

"Only characters from unrepped franchises are eligible."
"Only characters from unrepped games are eligible."
"Only characters from games not repped on the roster are eligible."

I don't understand why people refuse to let this statement die and admit that it might've not meant anything. I mean, what's more likely? Sakurai carefully chose his words so all eleven DLC characters would apply to what he said, or Smash fans are overanalyzing an innocent quote that basically translates to, "I'm really excited to add more new content though DLC and make Smash even bigger than it already is."

Guy 1: "LMAO Smesh fans haves stupid fanrules, Spirits decomfirm? HAHAHA"

Also Guy 1: "NOOOOOO You can't add Bandanna Dee He's not from a new universe. We must take that random PR statement as seriously as possible!!!!11111"

Its just a game of moving the goalpost.

You what i say to that statement made over a year ago?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Honestly this arguing about new worlds is funny to me because guess what it was completely true for the pass that was advertised as only having new worlds, what's the point in arguing about it when we don't even know if the second pass was greenlit by the time that magical phrase was used?

 

[7NATOR]

Yeah obviously New Universes have a great advantage in a Fighter Pass Format, where content like Stages, Music, and Spirits are taken into account. No need to discuss that.

I think when considering Characters from already represented Franchises, Besides the Characters own merits, There should be an Analysis on what content the Franchise has in the game already, If (And how much) New content they got in the game already, and what potentially new content they could get that fits either the character, Their universe, or even perhaps company

Personally in that Scenario I would Find it easier to believe Someone like Bandanna Dee getting in over Dixie, since Kirby hadn't gotten as much new content as Donkey Kong. Xenoblade is also in a Really good position for a Series that has a character already, due to how their universe operates, and How while they got content, it wasn't as vast as what other represented universe like what Mario, Pokemon (and even Fire Emblem before Byleth) got.

It's a case by case basis. I do think it's likely we'll get a Character from a Franchise already represented with a character, but they'll probably be somewhere near the end I would think

 

[Cosmic77]

Honestly this arguing about new worlds is funny to me because guess what it was completely true for the pass that was advertised as only having new worlds, what's the point in arguing about it when we don't even know if the second pass was greenlit by the time that magical phrase was used?

Because Sakurai literally made that comment in the same presentation when he revealed the second pass.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Because Sakurai literally made that comment in the same presentation when he revealed the second pass.

It's been 7 months since that, goddamn. Either way, we can conclude from Min Min that Sakurai's referring to unrepresented storylines/games when it comes to fighters. Anyone trying to go "BUT THAT'S A FANRULE! YOU WERE WRONG BEFORE!" clearly doesn't understand how the hell speculation works, when new information is presented that contradicts prior evidence, then we need to adapt from that thinking

 

[Aetheri]

People talking Zelda characters and no one brings up the obvious best choice!

No worries though, you'll all learn eventually!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

People talking Zelda characters and no one brings up the obvious best choice!

No worries though, you'll all learn eventually!

Yeah, for some reason people seem to not care about Darknuts, we'd finally have some proper playable knights

 

[Pokelego999]

People talking Zelda characters and no one brings up the obvious best choice!

No worries though, you'll all learn eventually!

Yeah, for some reason people seem to not care about Darknuts, we'd finally have some proper playable knights

Oof Size Large.

Jokes aside, a Darknut would actually be pretty sweet.

 

[Trevenant]

Yeah, the whole new universe thing makes sense to me at least. All challenges packs thematically bring in completely new content. Say, we got a new Sonic character, getting a bunch of tracks from Sonic Adventure, Heroes etc which already have stuff present and a new stage which would probably also be from somewhere already represented would just be weird to me when all the third parties obviously brought along completely new stuff, Three Houses did too tied specifically to the game and so did ARMS aside from some spirits. Would be weird when everything else brings completely new stuff. It's like how Sakurai designs characters in a way where they have to be thematic and not convoluted but a bit different since obviously they both are drastically different in how they are executed.

TLDR: If they can't represent something completely new and their challenger pack is just a hodgepodge of scraps from games that were already represented due to the lack of a coherent vision for what they could bring should there have been something completely unrepresented AND new absent from the game then it would fall kind of short of what has been expected and I don't think it would happen honestly especially considering that if it already existed that probably means it was passed over for base game. Could but I doubt it.

 

[Aetheri]

Yeah, for some reason people seem to not care about Darknuts, we'd finally have some proper playable knights

Oof Size Large.

Jokes aside, a Darknut would actually be pretty sweet.

No lie...Darknuts (specifically from Twilight Princess) would make for great fighters with a mechanic that has them starting off super slow but hits like a truck and they get lighter and faster as they take damage and lose armour.

 

[Will]

People talking Zelda characters and no one brings up the obvious best choice!

No worries though, you'll all learn eventually!

I swear when Tingle gets in you're all gonna act clueless

 

[Cutie Gwen]

No lie...Darknuts (specifically from Twilight Princess) would make for great fighters with a mechanic that has them starting off super slow but hits like a truck and they get lighter and faster as they take damage and lose armour.

I feel a mechanic like that works significantly better as an install-esque move or stance changing, but yeah, that sounds more interesting than some mechanics I've seen.


Side note, people who make gimmicky fan movesets seem to often forget that a gimmick with drawbacks shouldn't feel like a detriment, so when someone goes "Oh oh for Captain Toad's gimmick, he can't jump!" or some ****, they fail to realize that a character who's main drawback is that they ****ing suck isn't going to interest anyone, which brings up another thing. People seem to think that being unique is the end all be all, but it's not just uniqueness, they need to feel fun. When I see people go "yawn, cinematic final smashes are so boring I wish we had more YEWNEEK things" I see them popping off at idk, Terry just doing a funky little dance while explosions randomly happen in the background, praising it for being different regardless of how unfun it is to land. People also have double standards on how unique characters should be, the amount of times I've seen someone dislike a highly unique character because of one or two similarities only to praise their favourite who has even more similarities to other characters is ****ing hilarious

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

I'm mostly banking on the "new worlds" quote largely being a mistranslation. If this actually means we can only get completely unrepresented games and franchises, that will not justify spending less time on the base game newcomers. Besides, they technically don't have to reach out to new properties to develop unique characters.

 

[SharkLord]

I feel a mechanic like that works significantly better as an install-esque move or stance changing, but yeah, that sounds more interesting than some mechanics I've seen.


Side note, people who make gimmicky fan movesets seem to often forget that a gimmick with drawbacks shouldn't feel like a detriment, so when someone goes "Oh oh for Captain Toad's gimmick, he can't jump!" or some ****, they fail to realize that a character who's main drawback is that they ****ing suck isn't going to interest anyone, which brings up another thing. People seem to think that being unique is the end all be all, but it's not just uniqueness, they need to feel fun. When I see people go "yawn, cinematic final smashes are so boring I wish we had more YEWNEEK things" I see them popping off at idk, Terry just doing a funky little dance while explosions randomly happen in the background, praising it for being different regardless of how unfun it is to land. People also have double standards on how unique characters should be, the amount of times I've seen someone dislike a highly unique character because of one or two similarities only to praise their favourite who has even more similarities to other characters is ****ing hilarious

After loyal translations like Hero and Terry, I've found it kinda hard to balance the character's base game mechanics while making sure they aren't invasive or unfun. One example would be Reimu; I considered a Graze-based Power Meter, but after a bit of review on the Reimu thread we decided it was too gimmicky and existed just to be a gimmick. Still, I wanted to translate the bullet hell mechanics in some form.

 

[AmphabulouSnake]

I feel like the next two characters might be first party, and the last three characters will be third parties...
Still expecting Rex and Pyra/Mythra and a Gen 8 Pokemon (grass monke please) in regardless
But I'd love to be surprised by the next fighter if they are a third party

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Here's my slightly out of context take:

• Fan Rules aren't rules, they're theories.
• 100% of the time, fan theories are incorrect to some extent.
• That being said, the keyword is "to some extent", so most of them can't just be dismissed because of this.
• Because they are theories and not rules, they also shouldn't be treated as such.
• Only official statements that state something explicitly such as "no Goku" or "Because x character is an Assist Trophy, they won't be playable" should be taken as hard rules.

So applying this to the "New Worlds" theory, a character Bandana Waddle Dee is less likely because Kirby is in every game, and therefore reps every game. This does not mean that he's disconfirmed, because there are still merits/situations in which he could get in. A new Kirby game he plays a prominent role in and/or uses him for marketing purposes, for example. It's also worth keeping in mind that "new worlds" itself could very much be just a buzz word.

 

[Cosmic77]

People are free to speculate however they want, but this, "likely true until proven false" mentality has shut out a lot of potential newcomers.

In the case of ARMS, there was a point in time when the five Spirits and AT was considered to be enough representation, so adding an ARMS character "wouldn't add much to the crossover," whatever that's supposed to mean. It literally took an official confirmation from Nintendo before people took ARMS seriously.

Point is, if you have to keep redrafting an alleged pattern or trend because new information contradicts what's been set, then maybe it's time to reevaluate. I think we've whittled down "new worlds" so much that it would feel like more of a coincidence if it somehow managed to follow the flexible new guidelines that've been set for it.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

After loyal translations like Hero and Terry, I've found it kinda hard to balance the character's base game mechanics while making sure they aren't invasive or unfun. One example would be Reimu; I considered a Graze-based Power Meter, but after a bit of review on the Reimu thread we decided it was too gimmicky and existed just to be a gimmick. Still, I wanted to translate the bullet hell mechanics in some form.

There's a difference between gimmicks and translating mechanics though, Marth is one of my favourite examples of how to translate a character to Smash by looking at Fire Emblem's gameplay and game plan, it's a strategy game where unit placement is crucial, so this warrior needs to be a more methodical fighter, Marth also has a Rapier as a signature weapon in FE1, swords that you exclusively use to stab. Sakurai then realized he struck gold, by giving his Falchion a tipper mechanic, Marth players need to take their spacing into account and need to be more aware of their surroundings. It's also important to realize when it just gets too convuluted too, I've seen a handful of Demifiend/Flynn movesets, but none try to translate Press Turn into a mechanic which makes sense, it's a fantastic system, but it cannot be translated in a fighting game

 

[Garteam]

The irony of the entire "new worlds" statement is that it's entirely dubtext. Sakurai's original statement was closer to just discussing generally expanding the world of Smash, which is done whenever any character is added.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Putting that aside, it really doesn't seem like Sakurai cares too much about the novelty of and distinction between the base game content and DLC content from the Fighter's Pass. While he obviously wants to give people new things, the fact that Three Houses music can be used on the other Fire Emblem stages and the presence of the base game ARMS spirits in Min Min's board shows that Sakurai's fine with letting content from different waves mingle when it makes sense. Therefore, I can't really see why it would be an issue if a pack focused on a series or game that already has healthy representation in the roster.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Yeah, for some reason people seem to not care about Darknuts, we'd finally have some proper playable knights

Oof Size Large.

Jokes aside, a Darknut would actually be pretty sweet.

No lie...Darknuts (specifically from Twilight Princess) would make for great fighters with a mechanic that has them starting off super slow but hits like a truck and they get lighter and faster as they take damage and lose armour.

I would be stoked if they added the Wind Waker version even if it was a variant. Because, predictably, taking any concept and putting a dog on it makes me 90% more interested.

Unless the dog dies.

Or can't be interacted with.

There's no faster way to disappoint me.

After loyal translations like Hero and Terry, I've found it kinda hard to balance the character's base game mechanics while making sure they aren't invasive or unfun. One example would be Reimu; I considered a Graze-based Power Meter, but after a bit of review on the Reimu thread we decided it was too gimmicky and existed just to be a gimmick. Still, I wanted to translate the bullet hell mechanics in some form.

Perhaps you could play around with focusing, which makes your projectiles scarier, but is more committal, and you reveal your glowing dot which is a hurtbox that takes more damage if hit.

 

[7NATOR]

I'll just say is that With how many people Don't like the fact that Final Fantasy (7) has so little content in the game, I don't know if people would mind if there was a Whole Challenger pack dedicated to FF7, so there could be more than 2 Music tracks in the game, and More than just Cloud's Spirit. Granted I bet people fans of Other FF Games and Other Square properties would be salty, but that kinda happens anyway even with a new universe. there was probably many people that would have rather have Steve than Banjo for example

 

[SharkLord]

Perhaps you could play around with focusing, which makes your projectiles scarier, but is more committal, and you reveal your glowing dot which is a hurtbox that takes more damage if hit.

A tiny hurtbox was considered too, but I felt that would be really irritating to deal with for both players. Eventually I just decided on flight, projectile destruction when dashing or dodging, and an air dash.

 

[Idon]

I'll just say is that With how many people Don't like the fact that Final Fantasy (7) has so little content in the game, I don't know if people would mind if there was a Whole Challenger pack dedicated to FF7, so there could be more than 2 Music tracks in the game, and More than just Cloud's Spirit. Granted I bet people fans of Other FF Games and Other Square properties would be salty, but that kinda happens anyway even with a new universe. there was probably many people that would have rather have Steve than Banjo for example

Yeah **** that.
Imagine adding a second character to one game in a decades long running franchise because you messed up the first time and then justifying it with "eh people will be mad anyways"
How about we actually add a character from a different IP or at least a character from a different damn game.

I swear we are one step away from people asking for FF7Remake Cloud.

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I'll just say is that With how many people Don't like the fact that Final Fantasy (7) has so little content in the game, I don't know if people would mind if there was a Whole Challenger pack dedicated to FF7, so there could be more than 2 Music tracks in the game, and More than just Cloud's Spirit. Granted I bet people fans of Other FF Games and Other Square properties would be salty, but that kinda happens anyway even with a new universe. there was probably many people that would have rather have Steve than Banjo for example

As much as I would like further FF VII music, quite frankly Final Fantasy is too rich a series to not utilize another game for fighters. Even if getting Terra from VI or Vivi from IX only got us two tracks each from their respective games; it would still be worth it just to have either one in Smash.

 

[Will]

I'll just say is that With how many people Don't like the fact that Final Fantasy (7) has so little content in the game, I don't know if people would mind if there was a Whole Challenger pack dedicated to FF7, so there could be more than 2 Music tracks in the game, and More than just Cloud's Spirit. Granted I bet people fans of Other FF Games and Other Square properties would be salty, but that kinda happens anyway even with a new universe. there was probably many people that would have rather have Steve than Banjo for example

that's, frankly, stupid

i'm not that thirsty for sephiroth

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

In regards to Captain Toad, since you can't just not be able to jump in a platformer where even the character who is terrible in the air (which has proven to be a garbage gimmick, at least to this degree of polarity) doesn't even have the lowest jump in the game, I would use his backpack in a different way. Captain Toad is all about adventuring and finding cool treasures right? That's why he's weighed down in the first place. So how about instead of rendering him gravitationally challenged (though he'd still have a low jump, as this is consistent across all occurrences of playable Toads), it allows him to use a small variety of power ups from across the series.
This would be similar to Shulk's mechanic, but instead of modifying Toad's attributes, he's given modifications to his moveset, with each one giving him different options. The Super Bell, for example, would increase Captain Toad's mobility with cat dives, better ground pounds, a wall cling, etc. A Hammer Suit would give Captain Toad more ranged options. There's probably a ton of things you can do with this idea. And of course, we're operating on Super Mario physics, so taking too much damage would remove Captain Toad's current power up.

A tiny hurtbox was considered too, but I felt that would be really irritating to deal with for both players. Eventually I just decided on flight, projectile destruction when dashing or dodging, and an air dash.

Well in this case, it wouldn't shrink Reimu's hurtbox at all. It'd be like Ridley's Plasma Breath in that using the move gives her a weak spot. I don't think it would be annoying so much as it might make the move a bit underpowered if not balanced correctly.

 

[Will]

In regards to Captain Toad, since you can't just not be able to jump in a platformer where even the character who is terrible in the air (which has proven to be a garbage gimmick, at least to this degree of polarity) doesn't even have the lowest jump in the game, I would use his backpack in a different way. Captain Toad is all about adventuring and finding cool treasures right? That's why he's weighed down in the first place. So how about instead of rendering him gravitationally challenged (though he'd still have a low jump, as this is consistent across all occurrences of playable Toads), it allows him to use a small variety of power ups from across the series.
This would be similar to Shulk's mechanic, but instead of modifying Toad's attributes, he's given modifications to his moveset, with each one giving him different options. The Super Bell, for example, would increase Captain Toad's mobility with cat dives, better ground pounds, a wall cling, etc. A Hammer Suit would give Captain Toad more ranged options. There's probably a ton of things you can do with this idea. And of course, we're operating on Super Mario physics, so taking too much damage would remove Captain Toad's current power up.

I love these ideas for Captain Toad.

Like I'm the first guy to mention he can't jump, but not to try and deconfirm him. He just can't jump, work around it man, Sakurai ruined Ridley's spine, he can work wonders to make **** work.

 

[Idon]

There's a difference between gimmicks and translating mechanics though, Marth is one of my favourite examples of how to translate a character to Smash by looking at Fire Emblem's gameplay and game plan, it's a strategy game where unit placement is crucial, so this warrior needs to be a more methodical fighter, Marth also has a Rapier as a signature weapon in FE1, swords that you exclusively use to stab. Sakurai then realized he struck gold, by giving his Falchion a tipper mechanic, Marth players need to take their spacing into account and need to be more aware of their surroundings. It's also important to realize when it just gets too convuluted too, I've seen a handful of Demifiend/Flynn movesets, but none try to translate Press Turn into a mechanic which makes sense, it's a fantastic system, but it cannot be translated in a fighting game

Well actually, Persona 4 Arena came with a pretty close approximation of the "One More" system used in Persona games.
In the original game, hitting a weakness let you use another turn, thus "one more" similar to how SMT instead uses only "half" a turn. In Persona 4 Arena, One More instead acts as a Guilty Gear-esque roman cancel which lets an attack either A) Be safe from punishment or B) Extend a combo and increasing the damage, both things activating a "one more" move could do in Persona 4.

If Sakurai wanted to implement a system like that, I imagine with some creative out-of-the-box thinking it would be possible. Though in my mind in a game like smash bros I imagine it would be a Shulk situation where he's either overcompensated with terrible normal attacks or the press-turn system would be so broken as to nullify any weakness he has.

 

[7NATOR]

Yeah **** that.
Imagine adding a second character to one game in a decades long running franchise because you messed up the first time and then justifying it with "eh people will be mad anyways"
How about we actually add a character from a different IP or at least a character from a different damn game.

I swear we are one step away from people asking for FF7Remake Cloud.

Well I mean, People will be salty with everything. As a whole, I don't think people would be mad if say Sephiroth got added in. People love Sephiroth, especially people in Japan from what I've seen

We could add a character from a different IP I agree, but they could also add Sephiroth to the game as well and it would still be epic. It's just depends on what Nintendo wants to do.

I mean alot People want Puyo Puyo, Alot of people want a 2nd Sonic character. It's just what it is

that's, frankly, stupid

i'm not that thirsty for sephiroth

Some people are though.

 

[Will]

Some people are though.

Like you, apparently.

 

[RetroBro]

Guy 1: "LMAO Smesh fans haves stupid fanrules, Spirits decomfirm? HAHAHA"

Also Guy 1: "NOOOOOO You can't add Bandanna Dee He's not from a new universe. We must take that random PR statement as seriously as possible!!!!11111"

Its just a game of moving the goalpost.

You what i say to that statement made over a year ago?

Projection. I've never said anything like this and always err on the side of caution. I tend to look at smash speculation with more than a grain of salt to be honest. I've found myself pushing back against fan rules recently as it seems to control, suppress, and even kill discussions if you dare question the authority of it.

I've already stated how speculation has certain parts of it that work similarly to the Scientific method, but altering hypotheses based on the outcomes one receives is...literally how "theories" usually come into existence. The "hypothesis" seeks to explain something, and then an experiment occurs. Based on the results of the experiment, the hypothesis either changes or is proven to be correct, which is then put to the test in repeated experiments to see if it is a constant, thereby becoming a theory.

Pointing out that those points have changed overtime isn't really an own, it's just pointing out how hypotheses work.

I've responded to you a handful of times here in this thread. Unfortunately this is not how many see speculation. And while I can respect the idea that we're basically trying to narrow down or change the theory over time, it will inevitably end up being non-sensible and irrational given the characters we've gotten from game to game over the past 20 years. Sakurai, while a great game developer and patron of Nintendo, likes to go against the grain and expectations, even his own thoughts, ideas, and statements. He's even gone as far to include blindside picks to subvert expectations. Even the "rational" choices. He often defies beliefs and as we put it, the fan rules. I don't have a problem with trying to rationalize the upcoming characters. I have a problem with people behaving poorly when having discussions about speculation - not that anyone's really done this that I've responded to, it just happens a lot.

That's basically how "rules" change. There's nothing especially significant about subtle changes to what people consider the framework of the DLC. I think trying to discredit it based on that is not really accurate, because not only is that consistent as M MooMew64 said, but expecting folks to be 100% accurate 100% of the time isn't really giving a fair shake either.

I'll put it this way. Through the many years of speculation that we've seen with Smash. People can get authoritarian and suppress discussions simply because of popular rationalizations. And when fan rules that have been established for so long, are broken, people just widen or close the goal posts, conveniently at that. There are people who could use some humility with something as silly as smash speculation. It gets tiresome.

There's also the fact that each Ultimate DLC choice has fit the current "framework" so far, but I also don't think any character that doesn't fit that mold should be considered dead in the water either.

In what way? Are we including PP? What is the framework for DLC choices because I think every single one of them except Byleth basically broke molds that people speculated about.

As Koopaul said:

I think this is an important question to ask, because it logically would put a handful of characters in a different standing. "Which characters could thematically bring a new stage and music?" Even if people hate to read it, series with unique entries (new Pokemon region and characters, new Xenoblade world/setting and characters, new Fire Emblem universe/setting and characters) and previously unrepresented 3rd parties have a much easier time fitting into the Challenger Pack model. It doesn't mean that a Mario character, or a Zelda character, or a Kirby character can't work, but it doesn't fit the Challenger Pack model, as we know it, as well as those previously mentioned.

That's not a slight toward anybody's most wanted, either. It's just an observation based on the examples of Fighter Pass 1 and Min Min.

That's the thing. I can even agree with a lot of the logic going into this speculation, but I feel like it's an easy trap to fall into thinking there's even a "model" at all. Sakurai will continue to suprise and turn people's heads upside as long as he's able to. I've seen people be wrong so many times about popular ideas/rules and I've been wrong so many times that it's impossible for me to put too much faith in any mold, model, framework, rule established by the fans, or even rules established by Sakurai lol. If you go from 64--->Melee--->Brawl--->Sm4sh--->Ultimate, you can see that the surprises just keep on coming. Some of the "normal" entries into today's modern smash weren't so normal at the time.

And if there is some predictable framework (which I'm currently not seeing), and it ends up actually being correct. I think that'll be the strangest thing that could occur.

EDIT: in case anyone gets fired up over this, I mean no ill will.