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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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SharkLord

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There was also that one...Estelle? game but...meh. I also don't know if that's getting an English release so there's potentially more of a valid reason to not show it to English audiences.
You mean Atelier Ryza 2? That's getting localized and translated, even if it's not getting a dub. Apparently it has something to do with Koei-Tecmo's English division.
EDIT: :ultgreninja:'d
 
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7NATOR

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Man,Smash Speculation is kinda dry right now, but I guess with no news that's to be expected

If it's a Mini, if it's unannounced I expect another Tease. the only thing is what franchise would work with that sort of tease. I remember there were rumors that FP7 was said to be 3rd Party (from Papagenos).

If the Mini is announced I expect an actual reveal, and maybe a Presentation coming in September perhaps, along with a release after the presentation

If it's a Partner, it's not impossible for Smash to show up but I don't expect it. General, it's an easy yes
 

Rie Sonomura

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wait another crazy idea

hear me out

there's maintenance tomorrow (the 24th) and next Monday (the 31st) in which ALL services will be unavailable. what if

surprise Mini tomorrow, possibly a Partner

announcement for a full direct on the 28th

said full direct happens the 31st

win all around!
 

JCKirbs

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Man,Smash Speculation is kinda dry right now, but I guess with no news that's to be expected

If it's a Mini, if it's unannounced I expect another Tease. the only thing is what franchise would work with that sort of tease. I remember there were rumors that FP7 was said to be 3rd Party (from Papagenos).

If the Mini is announced I expect an actual reveal, and maybe a Presentation coming in September perhaps, along with a release after the presentation

If it's a Partner, it's not impossible for Smash to show up but I don't expect it. General, it's an easy yes
Honestly, I'd take dry speculation if it meant more surprise reveals. Speculation and even character reveals themselves would become a bit more boring and/or less satisfying if we already had a clear idea of who the next character(s) were.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I think they mean Ryza 2, which had an English version of that trailer they sinply didn't show iirc
You mean Atelier Ryza 2? That's getting localized and translated, even if it's not getting a dub. Apparently it has something to do with Koei-Tecmo's English division.
EDIT: :ultgreninja:'d
I looked back at the direct and yeah, that was it. I don't really have an attachment to the Atlier series, but it does seem to be fairly notable. The fact that it and Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin weren't shown off in the English Partner Showcase is a pretty big fail on Nintendo's part considering the direct was going to disappoint people anyway. Having more potentially interesting games to show may have eased people's woes at least a bit more.
EDIT: Or at the very least it may have helped to counteract the WWE shovelware title. lol

Totally get why they didn't show Japanese Monopoly though. lol
 
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7NATOR

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wait another crazy idea

hear me out

there's maintenance tomorrow (the 24th) and next Monday (the 31st) in which ALL services will be unavailable. what if

surprise Mini tomorrow, possibly a Partner

announcement for a full direct on the 28th

said full direct happens the 31st

win all around!
Well if that's the case, Do you think they will announce the Mini? actually have they ever announced Nintendo Mini's, I'm honestly haven't been keeping up with that

Honestly, I'd take dry speculation if it meant more surprise reveals. Speculation and even character reveals themselves would become a bit more boring and/or less satisfying if we already had a clear idea of who the next character(s) were.
I guess that's kinda true. I guess with every speculation period, if there's no leaks this point inSpeculation is bound to happen. Even with leaks this dry period is bound to happen after we dissect the leak for so long


(Bugger, image broke. Alright then, "Press X to doubt")

Some text so that this isn't just an image-only post
Understandable. I Know Papagenos is not the most prime leaker. He does have people come out to him but not everyone is right. I still gonna keep it in mind
 

Icedragonadam

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The lack of Sakuna and Atelier in the western Partner Showcases is still the most confusing things ever.

Woulda made the Direct a bit more interesting, at least. Both games look dope.
Apparently whoever was in charge of the team of making the American showcase has a strong case of Hardcore American Kirby Syndrome.
 

CapitaineCrash

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Man,Smash Speculation is kinda dry right now, but I guess with no news that's to be expected

If it's a Mini, if it's unannounced I expect another Tease. the only thing is what franchise would work with that sort of tease. I remember there were rumors that FP7 was said to be 3rd Party (from Papagenos).

If the Mini is announced I expect an actual reveal, and maybe a Presentation coming in September perhaps, along with a release after the presentation

If it's a Partner, it's not impossible for Smash to show up but I don't expect it. General, it's an easy yes
The only franchise that this type of guessing game could work is Pokémon with gen 8.

But god please I don't want this type of announcement. This was an awful period for Smash speculation.
 

SnowClaws

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Here, a fun math calculation on the supposed amiibo theory on when the amiibo and the fighter is released.

Wave 13
amiibo April 12 (Fri) - Joker April 17 (Wed), 5 days apart

Wave 14
amiibo July 19 (JP, EU) (Fri), July 26 (NA) (Fri) - Hero July 30 (Tues), 11 days or 4 days apart

Wave 15
Banjo Sep 4 (Wed) - amiibo Sep 20 (Fri), 16 days apart

Wave 16
Terry Nov 6 (Wed) - amiibo Nov 8 (JP) (Fri), Nov 15 (West) (Fri), 2 days or 9 days apart

Wave 17
amiibo Jan 17 (Fri) - Byleth Jan 28 (Tues), 11 days apart

Wave 18
Min Min Jun 29 (Mon) - amiibo Sep 25 (JP, EU) (Fri), Oct 2 (NA) (Fri) 88 days or 95 days apart.

* If Wave 18 isn't supposed to be for the release of Min Min, and instead it is for Fighter 7. Then, using the two common number 7 or 11 to determine the release date for Fighter 7.
Date: amiibo Sep 25 (JP, EU) (Fri), Oct 2 (NA) (Fri)
Adding
The first date using 7 is Oct 2 (Fri) or Oct 9 (Fri) and the second date using 11 is Oct 6 (Tues) or Oct 13 (Tues).
Subtracting
The first date using 7 is Sep 18 (Fri) or Sep 25 (Fri) and the second date using 11 is Sep 14 (Mon) or Sep 21 (Mon).

Edit: 15 minus 6 isn't 7, it is 9, my bad.
Edit 2: 17 minus 12 isn't 7, it is 5, my bad again.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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The only franchise that this type of guessing game could work is Pokémon with gen 8.

But god please I don't want this type of announcement. This was an awful period for Smash speculation.
Yeah having people argue about who would get in was pretty garbage when not as many people cared about the series.

Imagine how awful it would be when everyone's actively angry that the character comes from a specific series.

Besides, with ARMS, there were a few different choices that were plausible. With Pokémon, there's literally just 2.
 

Swamp Sensei

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Putting Papa aside, saying the next character is third party isn't really saying anything at all.
Considering this character was probably going to be an E3 reveal, its an incredibly common prediction as well.
 

Rie Sonomura

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I’ve mentioned the first two dates already but I wonder what the 14th could be for
 

chocolatejr9

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wait another crazy idea

hear me out

there's maintenance tomorrow (the 24th) and next Monday (the 31st) in which ALL services will be unavailable. what if

surprise Mini tomorrow, possibly a Partner

announcement for a full direct on the 28th

said full direct happens the 31st

win all around!
I think you might be overthinking this...

Oh well, we'll just have to wait and see, I guess.
 

N3ON

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It was brought up earlier but I'll address it now.

Pikmin 3 Deluxe may have been delayed due to wanting to fill out schedules as opposed to having issues with development.
Yeah, Nate has been saying this for a while.

The game, allegedly, had been targeted for a late spring/early summer release originally.

Things got shuffled around.

Ok but the funniest joke is claiming that ResetERA's progressive and wildly left wing
Not as funny as claiming that site is centrist.

wait another crazy idea

hear me out

there's maintenance tomorrow (the 24th) and next Monday (the 31st) in which ALL services will be unavailable. what if

surprise Mini tomorrow, possibly a Partner

announcement for a full direct on the 28th

said full direct happens the 31st

win all around!
Two non-series specific Directs in the span of a week would be great, but doesn't make a lot of sense.

Just my own take, but I don't think every single maintenance means something. Sometimes it's just to fix things are to do routine checkups on stuff.
Most maintenance have no greater meaning than Nintendo just having things to fix and update. Only a small number actually correspond to news.
 
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SharkLord

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I’ve mentioned the first two dates already but I wonder what the 14th could be for
I still subscribe to an announcement on the 28th, followed by the actual direct on the 31st.
 

7NATOR

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So guys, I got bored, so I decided to make a Tier List based of the Likelihood of a Company getting a character

It's bound to be controversial, so Give your thoughts if you want to. The Indie label Includes Travis, I only mention that because there may be some people that might not consider him Indie, or some that do. It depends

Actual Tier List

Note: Rates chances on Company getting Character, not any other sort of content in the game. It’s also in Order

Top Tier (Confirmed):
Nintendo

High Tier (Highly Likely): Indie

Mid Tier (Goes from Likely to maybe): Activision, Netherrealm Studio, Riot Games, Microsoft, Level-5, Capcom, Square, Falcom, Namco, Sega, Koei Tecmo, Konami

Low Tier (Unlikely, but could still be in): Spike Chunsoft, Arc System Works

Bottom Tier (Very Unlikely, to Almost impossible): Sony, Ubisoft, Bethesda, EA, SNK
 
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Idon

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So guys, I got bored, so I decided to make a Tier List based of the Likelihood of a Company getting a character

It's bound to be controversial, so Give your thoughts if you want to. The Indie label Includes Travis, I only mention that because there may be some people that might not consider him Indie, or some that do. It depends

Actual Tier List

Note: Rates chances on Company getting Character, not any other sort of content in the game. It’s also in Order

Top Tier (Confirmed):
Nintendo

High Tier (Highly Likely): Indie

Mid Tier (Goes from Likely to maybe): Activision, Netherrealm Studio, Riot Games, Microsoft, Level-5, Capcom, Square, Falcom, Namco, Sega, Koei Tecmo, Konami

Low Tier (Unlikely, but could still be in): Spike Chunsoft, Arc System Works

Bottom Tier (Very Unlikely, to Almost impossible): Sony, Ubisoft, Bethesda, EA, SNK
After skimping out on Shovel Knight, CupHead, Shantae, and Undertale, what makes you think any indie is high tier, much less higher tier than every large company you put in mid-tier, which so far at least has precedence going for it.
 

7NATOR

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After skimping out on Shovel Knight, CupHead, Shantae, and Undertale, what makes you think any indie is high tier, much less higher tier than every large company you put in mid-tier, which so far at least has precedence going for it.
I'm glad you asked

So I think this also is dependent on how I actually did this Tier list. I based the Positioning on the following things

-Has the Company already gotten content in FP2
-How much Content does the Company already have in Smash
-What are the relations between the Company and Nintendo
-What characters are Frontrunners, What Characters are Darkhorses, and what are their respective qualities towards a Spot on the roster
-for Veteran Companies, what content or Character Presence is Absent from the game
-What trends are likely to happen for FP2 (example: Western Character)

there's probably more things I'm not listing, but that's the gist of everything. Because some of these reasonings could be more Subjective in nature, the Tier List could change depending on the person. That's why I say this tier List is probably gonna be controvrisial

For Indie characters, I do Acknowledge that we've had Indies be regulated to Mii Costumes, spirits, and Assist Trophies. Now with that being said, even with FP2 we've been seeing increased Indie content lately, and there are still indies missing that have likelhood of being added, and with that comes more likeliood of an Indie attaining a Playable Spot

As for the characters themselves, I Personally think Reimu and Travis have good merits for them being playable themselves. I Personally don't think Travis will be Playable, but I know many people do, and I Definitely know Reimu has a lot of merit herself for her being playable over other indies.

For why they are higher than the other companies, It's a combination of both Reimu and Travis good merits for Playable spots, the fact that there has been precendent for Indie content in general, the fact that there still are some Notable indies (Hollow Knight for example) missing that point towards mor eindie content coming, meaning more chances for Playable Indie, the fact that Indie games have been a pretty big part of Nintendo Lately, and the fact that Rights to Indie companies are Usually very easy to get, that's why I put them in High Tier for Likelyhood
 

SharkLord

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After skimping out on Shovel Knight, CupHead, Shantae, and Undertale, what makes you think any indie is high tier, much less higher tier than every large company you put in mid-tier, which so far at least has precedence going for it.
I'm actually expecting an indie (Re: Reimu) on the basis that we've slowly been getting more and more indie content over time, and Touhou outclasses all other indies in terms of popularity and legacy (Except maybe Undertale in terms of popularity, but definitely not legacy). There aren't any indies left that can surpass Touhou, even when we count the deconfirmed ones.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I'd also like to add to the indie discussion that since the second wave was very likely chosen later than the first one, Shantae is back on the table, and Shovel Knight was always on the table since Spirit = disconfirm was never a real thing. EDIT: Forgot about his Assist Trophy. Nevermind. lol

There's also Quote as another great choice of indie representation albeit not a mainstream one.
 
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Cosmic77

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Maintenance is a very unreliable method of predicting upcoming Directs. We've had scheduled maintenance all throughout summer. Some were close to announcements. Others weren't even close.

Point is, I wouldn't mark my calendar for something worthwhile being revealed just because there's maintenance in the near future.
 

MooMew64

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I'm actually expecting an indie (Re: Reimu) on the basis that we've slowly been getting more and more indie content over time, and Touhou outclasses all other indies in terms of popularity and legacy (Except maybe Undertale in terms of popularity, but definitely not legacy). There aren't any indies left that can surpass Touhou, even when we count the deconfirmed ones.
Not to say Touhou isn't popular in it's own right in Japan, but I wouldn't say it has more worldwide recognition than Shovel Knight, Shantae, or especially Cup Head or Undertale nowadays.

Touhou isn't really a big name at all over here, and honestly, I'd say it's even more niche a name than Dragon Quest. It does have a bit of a legacy over here in anime meme culture, but for the most part it's presence over here is very, very small compared to that of the indies already present in Smash. That's not to say Reimu can't happen, but in my opinion, I don't necessarily think she's a guaranteed front-runner when all of the things that kept the other indies from getting in affect her even more so due to Touhou's lack of global popularity that matches that of indie options that were already passed up.
 
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SKX31

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Yeah having people argue about who would get in was pretty garbage when not as many people cared about the series.

Imagine how awful it would be when everyone's actively angry that the character comes from a specific series.

Besides, with ARMS, there were a few different choices that were plausible. With Pokémon, there's literally just 2.
Yeah, that's a major reason why I dread the hypotheoretical LoL guessing game. That's a genre A) most here simply don't care about and / or dismiss due to being percieved as "famous because it's popular" and B) Pokemon Unite and the general reaction towards that is still pretty fresh, so a lot will be against that on that principle. Also, Tencent's not a popular company for many a reason, so that would fester too.

So guys, I got bored, so I decided to make a Tier List based of the Likelihood of a Company getting a character

It's bound to be controversial, so Give your thoughts if you want to. The Indie label Includes Travis, I only mention that because there may be some people that might not consider him Indie, or some that do. It depends

Actual Tier List

Note: Rates chances on Company getting Character, not any other sort of content in the game. It’s also in Order

Top Tier (Confirmed):
Nintendo

High Tier (Highly Likely): Indie

Mid Tier (Goes from Likely to maybe): Activision, Netherrealm Studio, Riot Games, Microsoft, Level-5, Capcom, Square, Falcom, Namco, Sega, Koei Tecmo, Konami

Low Tier (Unlikely, but could still be in): Spike Chunsoft, Arc System Works

Bottom Tier (Very Unlikely, to Almost impossible): Sony, Ubisoft, Bethesda, EA, SNK
That list sounds logical on the whole. One could argue that Ubisoft could be low tier because Prince of Persia is a possible wildcard.

Would add Disney (in case we're counting Sora as separate from S-E) to Low Tier because negotiations could be difficult; Taito to me feels like Low / Bottom tier despite being a classic company since their only internationally known franchises are Space Invaders and Bubble Bobble. Marvelous feels like Mid Tier IMHO, since Story of Seasons / Harvest Moon is surprisingly influential. Valve is another Low / Bottom tier depending heavily on how one views Gordon's / Heavy's chances.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Yeah, that's a major reason why I dread the hypotheoretical LoL guessing game. That's a genre A) most here simply don't care about and / or dismiss due to being percieved as "famous because it's popular" and B) Pokemon Unite and the general reaction towards that is still pretty fresh, so a lot will be against that on that principle. Also, Tencent's not a popular company for many a reason, so that would fester too.
I dunno, the one time I looked at what a League of Legends character could add to the game I was quite intrigued. If most or all of the candidates are like that I think the discussion could be quite fun.
 

SharkLord

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I dunno, the one time I looked at what a League of Legends character could add to the game I was quite intrigued. If most or all of the candidates are like that I think the discussion could be quite fun.
Fun for us, yes, but not for the general audience that doesn't look too far into things. If we did an FE guessing game, everyone would dismiss it as generic anime swordfighters. If we did a Street Fighter guessing game, they would all be dismissed as shotoclones. Some people just don't look beyond the surface, unfortunately.
 

7NATOR

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That list sounds logical on the whole. One could argue that Ubisoft could be low tier because Prince of Persia is a possible wildcard.

Would add Disney (in case we're counting Sora as separate from S-E) to Low Tier because negotiations could be difficult; Taito to me feels like Low / Bottom tier despite being a classic company since their only internationally known franchises are Space Invaders and Bubble Bobble. Marvelous feels like Mid Tier IMHO, since Story of Seasons / Harvest Moon is surprisingly influential. Valve is another Low / Bottom tier depending heavily on how one views Gordon's / Heavy's chances.
I can't believe I forgot Valve, and I Probably should have added Disney as seperate for Sora's Sake. I will also add the other companies in a updated list

The reason I added ubisoft in the bottom Category was because we already got the Altair and Rabbids Costumes in Byleth's Pack, and that was probably after the Roster Finalization was finished. I think that might be it for Ubisoft, and for me Prince of Persia doesn't change that. and it's also the same reason Bethasda is in Bottom tier. I would have added Arc Systems Works in Bottom tier too for the River City Spirits, but I feel there may be more leeway with that one, but Even then they are also unlikely to get a character for me

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the Topic of Guessing game, while League of Legends may not be alot of people's cup of tea on here, I do think there coud be some intrigue sparked up in the Discussion anyway. I mean after all it's still a New Franchise being added to Smash that also brings in new people, and also a New Company, and with the hundreds of characters Discussion could last awhile. Alot of people aren't interested in a New Pokemon rep and we've had lots of discussions about that already

The Other guessing game that I think could work and Kinda want to see is an Assist Trophy guessing game. I think there would be alot of stake sin that one since I'm sure most people on here have one Assist they want upgraded, and it be new discussions as well since Assist Characters don't really get discussed unless it's Waluigi, and Sometimes Isaac.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Fun for us, yes, but not for the general audience that doesn't look too far into things. If we did an FE guessing game, everyone would dismiss it as generic anime swordfighters. If we did a Street Fighter guessing game, they would all be dismissed as shotoclones. Some people just don't look beyond the surface, unfortunately.
Ok Fire Emblem, I'll understand (it'd probably be an annoying discussion for us as well since it'd just be like, Lyn Vs. Edelgard or something), but for Street Fighter it sounds like they're not even looking at the surface.

1598222592515.png
1598222672943.png
1598222709118.png
1598222779241.png
 

SharkLord

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I can't believe I forgot Valve, and I Probably should have added Disney as seperate for Sora's Sake. I will also add the other companies in a updated list

The reason I added ubisoft in the bottom Category was because we already got the Altair and Rabbids Costumes in Byleth's Pack, and that was probably after the Roster Finalization was finished. I think that might be it for Ubisoft, and for me Prince of Persia doesn't change that. and it's also the same reason Bethasda is in Bottom tier. I would have added Arc Systems Works in Bottom tier too for the River City Spirits, but I feel there may be more leeway with that one, but Even then they are also unlikely to get a character for me

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the Topic of Guessing game, while League of Legends may not be alot of people's cup of tea on here, I do think there coud be some intrigue sparked up in the Discussion anyway. I mean after all it's still a New Franchise being added to Smash that also brings in new people, and also a New Company, and with the hundreds of characters Discussion could last awhile. Alot of people aren't interested in a New Pokemon rep and we've had lots of discussions about that already

The Other guessing game that I think could work and Kinda want to see is an Assist Trophy guessing game. I think there would be alot of stake sin that one since I'm sure most people on here have one Assist they want upgraded, and it be new discussions as well since Assist Characters don't really get discussed unless it's Waluigi, and Sometimes Isaac.
Please no. An AT guessing game is just going devolve into an obnoxious Waluigi vs. Isaac argument that's going to get really boring and cyclic really fast. It'll just be "Waluigi's more popular!" "No Isaac has and actual game series!" No guessing games, period.
Ok Fire Emblem, I'll understand (it'd probably be an annoying discussion for us as well since it'd just be like, Lyn Vs. Edelgard or something), but for Street Fighter it sounds like they're not even looking at the surface.

The thing is, they'd have similar mechanics, and I'd imagine some people would write them off based on that alone. Not saying it would be received as poorly as an FE guessing game, but I wouldn't put it past some people to not even look at the surface.

That and it's just going to be focused on Chun-Li after the first week, with maybe someone like Akuma or Sakura edging in too.
 
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7NATOR

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Please no. An AT guessing game is just going devolve into an obnoxious Waluigi vs. Isaac argument that's going to get really boring and cyclic really fast. It'll just be "Waluigi's more popular!" "No Isaac has and actual game series!" No guessing games, period.

The thing is, they'd have similar mechanics, and I'd imagine some people would write them off based on that alone. Not saying it would be received as poorly as an FE guessing game, but I wouldn't put it past some people to not even look at the surface.

That and it's just going to be focused on Chun-Li after the first week, with maybe someone like Akuma or Sakura edging in too.

Waluigi and Isaac I bet would get the most discussion, and I could already see posts stating "Waluigi Confirmed guys" and stuff like that

but with this guessing game, other Popular Assists would also get discussion

-Skull Kid, Midna, and Ghirahim would get Discussion since Zelda is a Big Nintendo Franchise and alot of people have wanted a New Character that is not apart of the Trio

-Shadow and Knuckles would get Discussion since Sonic is an Iconic Franchise, and alot of people have wanted a 2nd Sonic Character added. Plus I can already imagine the discussion of whether Shadow could get in as a unique Character, since i still bet people think he could only get in as an Echo. I'll go to war on that one

-Alucard will probably also get some discussion because Sakurai did state he could have been the Castlevania rep, and even said he might have been the more popular protagnist.

Bomberman is also a New Franchise, and Bomberman himself still has a notable fanbase and such.

-Also discussions on Whether Shovel Knight could actually be the Indie rep this game

-There's also other Popular Assists like Ashley, Krystal, Zero (even though his Mii Costume came in Banjo's Pack), Lyn, Takamaru, and others.

The discussion won't just be Waluigi vs. Isaac


I do agree though that if we got a Street Fighter Guessing game, it would mostly be Chun Li discussion. Maybe M.Bision, Akuma, and some of the more recent Iconic Street Fighter characters like Juri could even get discussion
 
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SharkLord

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Waluigi and Isaac I bet would get the most discussion, and I could already see posts stating "Waluigi Confirmed guys" and stuff like that

but with this guessing game, other Popular Assists would also get discussion

-Skull Kid, Midna, and Ghirahim would get Discussion since Zelda is a Big Nintendo Franchise and alot of people have wanted a New Character that is not apart of the Trio

-Shadow and Knuckles would get Discussion since Sonic is an Iconic Franchise, and alot of people have wanted a 2nd Sonic Character added. Plus I can already imagine the discussion of whether Shadow could get in as a unique Character, since i still bet people think he could only get in as an Echo. I'll go to war on that one

-Alucard will probably also get some discussion because Sakurai did state he could have been the Castlevania rep, and even said he might have been the more popular protagnist.

Bomberman is also a New Franchise, and Bomberman himself still has a notable fanbase and such.

-Also discussions on Whether Shovel Knight could actually be the Indie rep this game

-There's also other Popular Assists like Ashley, Krystal, Zero (even though his Mii Costume came in Banjo's Pack), Lyn, Takamaru, and others.

The discussion won't just be Waluigi vs. Isaac
After the ARMS guessing game, I highly doubt it. You could make some pretty good cases for the entire roster, but in the end, it was just Spring Man vs. Min Min. Plus, ARMS hype was pretty low. If we did ATs, everyone would have a second chance again, but only one would get in. The salt and flame wars would be unimaginable.

Again, no guessing games period.
 
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CapitaineCrash

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I can't believe I forgot Valve, and I Probably should have added Disney as seperate for Sora's Sake. I will also add the other companies in a updated list

The reason I added ubisoft in the bottom Category was because we already got the Altair and Rabbids Costumes in Byleth's Pack, and that was probably after the Roster Finalization was finished. I think that might be it for Ubisoft, and for me Prince of Persia doesn't change that. and it's also the same reason Bethasda is in Bottom tier. I would have added Arc Systems Works in Bottom tier too for the River City Spirits, but I feel there may be more leeway with that one, but Even then they are also unlikely to get a character for me
I don't agree with your point with Arc systems. The difference with Arc sys situation and Ubisoft is that mii costume always come in wave with a character, so it would be weird to have Ubisoft costumes with a Ubisoft character later. The spirit release is much more random (aside from DLC characters have spirits from that franchise at the same time). Also River city wasn't the most likely Arc systems characters in the first place, it was Blazblue or Guilty gear.
 
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