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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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cosmicB

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If that happened, wouldn't that have been speculation on his part, which was not so sure, may I ask?
"Informed speculation" that he was virtually 100% convinced was happening. He went from Lloyd to Sol Badguy to Dragonborn to overall western for FP5, and he was EXTREMELY confident in that. Just like he's still extremely confident that the remaining 5 characters will be Geno, Lloyd, Dante, Master Chief and Crash.

He isn't worth listening to.
 

Rie Sonomura

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"Informed speculation" that he was virtually 100% convinced was happening. He went from Lloyd to Sol Badguy to Dragonborn to overall western for FP5, and he was EXTREMELY confident in that. Just like he's still extremely confident that the remaining 5 characters will be Geno, Lloyd, Dante, Master Chief and Crash.

He isn't worth listening to.
Wasn’t Lloyd also at one point in the “Bandai Namco Costumes” list alongside Nightmare and KOS-MOS (and I think also Heihachi which came true)
 

Animegamingnerd

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To be completely fair to him whenever he brought this fact up ( which it's something that he does a lot) he always specifies that these rumors have been a thing "since" 2018, which implies that Waluigi and Geno have been constantly been heard for 2 years straight among "insider circles".

But then again, considering the individual we're talking about here, I wouldn't be surprised if behind the scenes this "since 2018" could amount to just the NoA guy bringing Waluigi and/or Geno near the game's launch and the Paragon/Cacomallow hoaxes being a thing the following year.
The fact its been discussed for 2 years among "insiders", kinda screams its bogus to me. Wasn't there a rumor that FP2 only got green light around E3 of last year?

Anyhow, anyone expecting the Indie Direct to be announced tomorrow?
If its happening this week, then I would imagine so.
 

CannonStreak

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"Informed speculation" that he was virtually 100% convinced was happening. He went from Lloyd to Sol Badguy to Dragonborn to overall western for FP5, and he was EXTREMELY confident in that. Just like he's still extremely confident that the remaining 5 characters will be Geno, Lloyd, Dante, Master Chief and Crash.

He isn't worth listening to.
How do you know he is extremely confident? I thought he presented most of his thoughts as theories.

Not that the last five doesn't sound far fetched, for it does, but I do not remember him saying that.
 

cosmicB

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How do you know he is extremely confident? I thought he presented most of his thoughts as theories.

Not that the last five doesn't sound far fetched, for it does, but I do not remember him saying that.
Do his posts not give off that feeling? The constant arrogance, the gifs and memes directed at skeptical people, the frequent flexing of having low level "insider" contacts from Sabi's discord (most of which don't even agree with him on Geno), etc, all while mentioning these specific characters.

I suppose it's possible I've misread his Wario meme spamming as speculation rather than "hey guys, I know things and have since 2018, listen to me! I am your bridge between the dirty insiders that keep a bunch of information to themselves and the unwashed masses! PM me and I'll make you a confidant because I care about this community so much (and no other ones)!" I can't imagine I'm the only one that has that interpretation though.
 
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CannonStreak

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Do his posts not give off that feeling? The constant arrogance, the gifs and memes directed at skeptical people, the frequent flexing of having low level "insider" contacts from Sabi's discord (most of which don't even agree with him on Geno), etc.

I suppose it's possible I've misread his Wario meme spamming as speculation rather than "hey guys, I know things and have since 2018, listen to me! I am your bridge between the dirty insiders that keep a bunch of information to themselves and the unwashed masses! PM me and I'll make you a confidant because I care about this community so much (and no other ones)!" I can't imagine I'm the only one that has that interpretation though.
I suppose there is a little bit of arrogance going on, I can sense that. But I have not seen the other things. He can't be that bad.

I will be honest, there is something skeptical and suspicious about him and his saying Geno is in. If I could, I'd try to find out what it is, as hard as that may be.
 

Rie Sonomura

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hey guys, anything interesting happen lately concerning smash news?
I friggin wish

atm there’s rumors of a indie world either happening or announced tomorrow, and a direct on the 28th. A full one, not a mini or partner one

although, in my desperation I DID find a smash rumor on 4chan that said another free stage, Final Battlefield (aka the Galeem/Dharkon final battle stage) would come in September but idk I doubt that
 
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MooMew64

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That has been for a while, now. There has to be something coming soon.
TBH we'll get news, just probably via tweets.

As much as I am entertaining this Skyward Sword port because it's totally something Nintendo would do (and TBH I kinda want it), it does nothing to imply a big Direct that Nintendo fans are wanting. Heck, they could drop another mini, or more than likely IMO, drop in a tweet some morning. Looking at the company as a whole right now and how they have struggled with the environment and situations they're in this year, I have extreme doubt for this big news blowout that insiders swear is coming. The only proof we have is that insiders are saying the same things we are, that Nintendo "Has to! They just gotta!" But to be honest...they don't. They've been making bank this year, and all of their smaller titles that people have complained aren't what they want or are too small are doing pretty dang well, so clearly the lack of a big Direct isn't bothering them as much as it is us. There's honestly been quite the disconnect with us Nintendo fans and the reality of Nintendo's situation this year.
 
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WeirdChillFever

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That has been for a while, now. There has to be something coming soon.
Again, that’s sort of the status quo since March. Nothing to me says that has reached a critical point now.

As for Fatman, I think since he goes for that double position of speculeaker, anything he says thay pans out wrong is hard to put in context. Are the sources wrong? Are they outdated? Is FM “bad” at speculating? I know he does his best to put his information in a best possible context and strives for transparency, but sometimes it feels like we get his info pre-packed in a theory and it’s up to the others to find other possibilities to map out based on the leaker’s info. I think he’s doing a good job and I hate to continue what seems to be a weekly dunk-on-funny-Geno-man-time but I think this is the best time to bring this up.
8F73C2CD-E6CA-4E31-8A07-F532A6BA408C.jpeg

That said, in order to change the topic, does anyone think one of the fighter’s pass slots is TBD, like Corrin’s was? Do you think they’re waiting for a specific game to get closer to release or have they just carved out a “Future Proof” slot to let Smash reach into 2021’s library. Or do you think all slots are good and ready and fully decided already?
 

CannonStreak

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Again, that’s sort of the status quo since March. Nothing to me says that has reached a critical point now.

As for Fatman, I think since he goes for that double position of speculeaker, anything he says thay pans out wrong is hard to put in context. Are the sources wrong? Are they outdated? Is FM “bad” at speculating? I know he does his best to put his information in a best possible context and strives for transparency, but sometimes it feels like we get his info pre-packed in a theory and it’s up to the others to find other possibilities to map out based on the leaker’s info. I think he’s doing a good job and I hate to continue what seems to be a weekly dunk-on-funny-Geno-man-time but I think this is the best time to bring this up.

That said, in order to change the topic, does anyone think one of the fighter’s pass slots is TBD, like Corrin’s was? Do you think they’re waiting for a specific game to get closer to release or have they just carved out a “Future Proof” slot to let Smash reach into 2021’s library. Or do you think all slots are good and ready and fully decided already?
Hey, I don't really think the leakers will be correct on this one, as there is a chance they won't be, if Nintendo has been delaying things, but I believe that regardless of what leakers say, it has been so long that something has to happen. Maybe not a Direct, but something.

As for that guy, I honestly understand where you are coming from, and I respect your opinion.

Now can we drop the talk on that guy? Before a mod tells us to move on?
 

Cosmic77

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That said, in order to change the topic, does anyone think one of the fighter’s pass slots is TBD, like Corrin’s was? Do you think they’re waiting for a specific game to get closer to release or have they just carved out a “Future Proof” slot to let Smash reach into 2021’s library. Or do you think all slots are good and ready and fully decided already?
They could be saving a slot for a SwSh Pokemon and/or a 2021 game. Seems like Sakurai prefers putting off the Pokemon newcomers as long as possible so he can make a more informed decision, so it wouldn't surprise me if we get a Pokemon as one of the last three fighters. As for a character from a 2021 game, that's mostly me assuming they'd repeat what they did with Fates and 3H. If they do, maybe a BotW2 character?
 

CannonStreak

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Oh, misread and thought you were just talking about a Direct in general lol.

I mean, I honestly can't say I expect anything more than that this month. I don't at all believe NateDrake's spiel about a last minute General.
Huh? I can't say I trust that, either, but what do you mean by "last minute Direct"? Why would there be one at this "last minute"? Sounds suspicious.
 

MooMew64

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Huh? I can't say I trust that, either, but what do you mean by "last minute Direct"? Why would there be one at this "last minute"? Sounds suspicious.
NateDrake and a few others have been touting that there's two back-to-back Directs coming, and that an Indie World will lead in to a General.

Honestly not buying it. Not when they've just established the new Partner Showcase format and said it was a new series.
 
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CannonStreak

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NateDrake and a few others have been touting that there's two back-to-back Directs coming, and that an Indie World will lead in to a General.

Honestly not buying it. Not when they've just established the new Partner Showcase format and said it was a new series.
That WAS just one mistake, but that is nevertheless a good reason not to believe them. I just hope we do get something, even if it is different from what they say it is; sooner or later.
 

cosmicB

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That said, in order to change the topic, does anyone think one of the fighter’s pass slots is TBD, like Corrin’s was? Do you think they’re waiting for a specific game to get closer to release or have they just carved out a “Future Proof” slot to let Smash reach into 2021’s library. Or do you think all slots are good and ready and fully decided already?
TBD as in the source game isn't out yet or TBD as in they haven't actually decided on the character and/or are throwing a few names around but haven't committed? The latter would require them to have flat out lied to us, which isn't impossible but something I see as unlikely. If we're talking about the former, it's risky unless they're confident the game will be released prior to the character reveal, and they'll push it back if they have to. I mean we literally got a character from a game that wasn't out when FP1 was finalized, so there's precedent for this. Maybe the Bravely 2 protagonist or something.

I think what's more likely than the pass not being 100% finalized is emergency swaps. Like, say a 3rd party gets mired in an unsalvageable controversy and it would look awful if Nintendo were to partner with them. I can't imagine what that controversy would be seeing as no medium to big size developer has actually been taken down by one in recent years even if they had some bumps along the way (THQ Nordic, Ubisoft, Blizzard), but I'm sure Nintendo has at least thought about it. Though that would probably be a bigger worry if a character from a small team/individual is coming. A lot easier to remove a mii costume from the store if you found out someone like Toby Fox was collecting faces or something.
 

7NATOR

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Yeah for Fatmanonice's Predictions, I can't really buy into his Predictions that much, and I don't know why he's so Sure on Waluigi having to amount to something. I understand he's an Assist, but I don't think that makes Waluigi exempt from leakabait. He is willing to entertain that Ryu was Leakbait for Byleth, so the same thing could be happening for Waluigi, maybe with another Nintendo Character or Assist, or just them throwing a name out there willingly

Speaking of which, C cosmicB , I Believe you said you Had been n the inside before. Do you know how prominent leakbaiting is? With Both Nintendo and Namco both in the driver seat for Smash, i bet they imploy all sorts of Tricks and Techniques
 
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CannonStreak

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Yeah for Fatmanonice's Predictions, I can't really buy into his Predictions that much, and I don't know why he's so Sure on Waluigi having to amount to something. I understand he's an Assist, but I don't think that makes Waluigi exempt from leakabait. He is willing to entertain that Ryu was Leakbait for Byleth, so the same thing could be happening for Waluigi, maybe with another Nintendo Character or Assist, or just them throwing a name out there willingly

Speaking of which, C cosmicB , I Believe you said you Had been n the inside before. Do you know how prominent leakbaiting is? With Both Nintendo and Namco both in the driver seat for Smash, i bet they imploy all sorts of Tricks and Techniques
As I told through PM to C cosmicB , I doubt Geno, Lloyd, Chief, Crash and Dante are all going to be DLC characters, let alone Waluigi. Those are all popular picks, and I know Nintendo well enough to know that they would, or Sakurai would not choose picks that are all popular, but would include others that weren't requested and even unexpected like Byleth. I am not buying Fatman's predictions myself.
 

7NATOR

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As I told through PM to C cosmicB , I doubt Geno, Lloyd, Chief, Crash and Dante are all going to be DLC characters, let alone Waluigi. Those are all popular picks, and I know Nintendo well enough to know that they would, or Sakurai would not choose picks that are all popular, but would include others that weren't requested and even unexpected like Byleth. I am not buying Fatman's predictions myself.
I Mean for me, It's not even that all the characters are popular, All the characters in FP1 were popular to specific reigions and such, maybe not Byleth but at least Fire Emblem 3 Houses was really good game, and such

But yeah all these Characters are massive, and the fact that Nintendo Started with Min-Min of all characters if these are the 5 characters here makes me question Nintnedo's Marketing. when you have a Season Pass you want a character that Kicks of a bang for a reason. It's easier to bait people into buying the pass that way. And plus if More people are buying, that means more people are also paying attention to the other characters that may not be as popular

You see this done with pretty much every Season Pass in Fighting games. Especially Namco published games. Negan was the first revealed character for Season 2 of Tekken, but he was the last character to come out. UI Goku was the first to be revealed, but Kefla was actually the first character in that pass, but they know People want that UI Goodness (Kefla was still hype though)

Min-Min does not jive with the Proposed Pass here. It's also something to consider that Trying to get Master Chief and Crash in One Pass might be to hell of a feat. I feel like Both Microsoft and Activison would want ALOT of Money. Keep in mind when they were working on Banjo, they worked more with Rare than they did Microsoft. With Chief that's working with Microsoft and such.

And also this is my personal Opinion, but I also can't see Dante and Lloyd in the same pass. Both are Swordsman that are Combo-based and such. While i know they do different moves, there's a possiblity they would want more mechanical variance among the pass.

Fatman has said that his predictions have some insider info backing it. If is Insider Info is backing the characters in his Predictions, I don't think it's what it seems. and I don't think he ever stated the characters were confirmed or anything, but even then, I think it's likely one of his predictions will turn out to be Mii Costume, and probably more than that honestly
 

CannonStreak

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I Mean for me, It's not even that all the characters are popular, All the characters in FP1 were popular to specific reigions and such, maybe not Byleth but at least Fire Emblem 3 Houses was really good game, and such

But yeah all these Characters are massive, and the fact that Nintendo Started with Min-Min of all characters if these are the 5 characters here makes me question Nintnedo's Marketing. when you have a Season Pass you want a character that Kicks of a bang for a reason. It's easier to bait people into buying the pass that way. And plus if More people are buying, that means more people are also paying attention to the other characters that may not be as popular

You see this done with pretty much every Season Pass in Fighting games. Especially Namco published games. Negan was the first revealed character for Season 2 of Tekken, but he was the last character to come out. UI Goku was the first to be revealed, but Kefla was actually the first character in that pass, but they know People want that UI Goodness (Kefla was still hype though)

Min-Min does not jive with the Proposed Pass here. It's also something to consider that Trying to get Master Chief and Crash in One Pass might be to hell of a feat. I feel like Both Microsoft and Activison would want ALOT of Money. Keep in mind when they were working on Banjo, they worked more with Rare than they did Microsoft. With Chief that's working with Microsoft and such.

And also this is my personal Opinion, but I also can't see Dante and Lloyd in the same pass. Both are Swordsman that are Combo-based and such. While i know they do different moves, there's a possiblity they would want more mechanical variance among the pass.

Fatman has said that his predictions have some insider info backing it. If is Insider Info is backing the characters in his Predictions, I don't think it's what it seems. and I don't think he ever stated the characters were confirmed or anything, but even then, I think it's likely one of his predictions will turn out to be Mii Costume, and probably more than that honestly
Even insider sources can be wrong, which is apparently the case with Fatman. Insiders do hear different things.

That said, it would have made better sense to put characters like Chief and Crash in the first pass, as you have said. the other things you said are on point. I personally think a DLC pass for all or mostly popular picks is not going to happen, given that there are many characters out there that can be chosen instead of any of his predictions for any different amount of reasons out there. I doubt Fatman is going to be correct here.
 

cosmicB

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Yeah for Fatmanonice's Predictions, I can't really buy into his Predictions that much, and I don't know why he's so Sure on Waluigi having to amount to something. I understand he's an Assist, but I don't think that makes Waluigi exempt from leakabait. He is willing to entertain that Ryu was Leakbait for Byleth, so the same thing could be happening for Waluigi, maybe with another Nintendo Character or Assist, or just them throwing a name out there willingly

Speaking of which, C cosmicB , I Believe you said you Had been n the inside before. Do you know how prominent leakbaiting is? With Both Nintendo and Namco both in the driver seat for Smash, i bet they imploy all sorts of Tricks and Techniques
I think "insider" is too overdramatic of a description. I wrote for a website from 2012 to 2016 and heard a few things in the IRC/Discord from the head of the site who had more contacts than I did. In the end, the only real game-related info I got was learning about FF7 remake a week before it was revealed and hearing rumblings about a Valkyria Chronicles Trilogy on Vita which either got quietly cancelled or never existed in the first place and was just faulty information. One of the guys I wrote with went on to be someone notable at Atlus, but there's only one bit of "insider" info I know on that and I'm not going to repeat it here (not that it's anything big and it's actually not even a good thing).

However, I had heard some crazy stuff about how Nintendo would obscure information and utilize leakbait, assuming the guy wasn't just messing with me which is 100% possible. In the end, I still makes me EXTREMELY skeptical of any kind of Nintendo related leak that doesn't involve a western partner.
 

CannonStreak

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I think "insider" is too overdramatic of a description. I wrote for a website from 2012 to 2016 and heard a few things in the IRC/Discord from the head of the site who had more contacts than I did. In the end, the only real game-related info I got was learning about FF7 remake a week before it was revealed and hearing rumblings about a Valkyria Chronicles Trilogy on Vita which either got quietly cancelled or never existed in the first place and was just faulty information. One of the guys I wrote with went on to be someone notable at Atlus, but there's only one bit of "insider" info I know on that and I'm not going to repeat it here (not that it's anything big and it's actually not even a good thing).

However, I had heard some crazy stuff about how Nintendo would obscure information and utilize leakbait, assuming the guy wasn't just messing with me which is 100% possible. In the end, I still makes me EXTREMELY skeptical of any kind of Nintendo related leak that doesn't involve a western partner.
Hence said, I believe the obscuring information on Nintendo's part and their possible use of leakbait would actually make Fatman's sources turn out, well, wrong.

It seems like those sources do not know Nintendo that well, too.
 

frozolloyd

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Even as one of Lloyd's biggest fans, I really doubt Fatman's predictions. Like I get it, he is a really cool guy from what I have seen in his posts and unlike Vergeben for example actually seems to be a really nice person. That doesn't mean we should ignore how bad his track record has been though. Almost all of his predictions up to this point have been wrong, and the ones he has made that were correct were only correct because he modified the goal post (I think he once said something around "those SNK costumes my source predicted were actually still correct because they were Terry's Spirit Board!"). When we talk about leakers, their track record is one of the most important things to mention, and either Fatman or his source have a really bad track record thus far. Same reason I don't buy Papagenos' source, they only got like one thing right thus far. Its a shame the leakers who actually have a good track record have been chased out. That being said, I do wonder if we will ever get another legit smash character leak again, considering Vergeben has been completely quiet lately and the other well known leaker (forget his name, he was the one to do the Min Min acronym thing) only seems to leak the character a few days in advance. Maybe not being spoiled the surprise is for the best.
 
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CannonStreak

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Even as one of Lloyd's biggest fans, I really doubt Fatman's predictions. Like I get it, he is a really cool guy from what I have seen in his posts and unlike Vergeben for example actually seems to be a really nice person. That doesn't mean we should ignore how bad his track record has been though. Almost all of his predictions up to this point have been wrong, and the ones he has made that were correct were only correct because he modified the goal post (I think he once said something around "those SNK costumes my source predicted were actually still correct because they were Terry's Spirit Board!"). When we talk about leakers, their track record is one of the most important things to mention, and either Fatman or his source have a really bad track record thus far. Same reason I don't buy Papagenos' source, they only got like one thing right thus far. Its a shame the leakers who actually have a good track record have been chased out. That being said, I do wonder if we will ever get another legit smash character leak again, considering Vergeben has been completely quiet lately and the other well known leaker (forget his name, he was the one to do the Min Min acronym thing) only seem to leak the character a few days in advance. Maybe not being spoiled the surprise is for the best.
Out of curiosity, how many people do tend to ignore his track record? Or even care about it?
 

7NATOR

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I think "insider" is too overdramatic of a description. I wrote for a website from 2012 to 2016 and heard a few things in the IRC/Discord from the head of the site who had more contacts than I did. In the end, the only real game-related info I got was learning about FF7 remake a week before it was revealed and hearing rumblings about a Valkyria Chronicles Trilogy on Vita which either got quietly cancelled or never existed in the first place and was just faulty information. One of the guys I wrote with went on to be someone notable at Atlus, but there's only one bit of "insider" info I know on that and I'm not going to repeat it here (not that it's anything big and it's actually not even a good thing).

However, I had heard some crazy stuff about how Nintendo would obscure information and utilize leakbait, assuming the guy wasn't just messing with me which is 100% possible. In the end, I still makes me EXTREMELY skeptical of any kind of Nintendo related leak that doesn't involve a western partner.
Ahhh, well in any case those Crazy Stuff about Nintendo obscuring info and leakbaiting, I can Definitely buy. Even if the info is true in a way, it might not be what it seems (Ex: Dante is in Smash...as a Mii Costume) those sorts of things

Also add in that Namco is on board. Their stuff does not Leak like that. The only times i remember stuff of theirs leaked was when Steam messed up with listing things to early, like what happened with Terry in this game.

Putting both of them on board with Smash, Might mean what we're hearing might not be the thing that's gonna happen, personally. it's just weird, and I have alot of question for Fatman and such, since at the moment he's really the only guy with Inside sources right now Doing stuff with Smash currently
 

Rie Sonomura

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Based on what I know of Nintendo and how they did stuff in the past, I can definitely see that guy's predictions turn out false, as well as his source, too. No way all those characters would be in the second pass.
I heard he mentioned something about a list of Bandai Namco characters as costumes? I know KOS-MOS and Nightmare were in that list, who else?
 

CannonStreak

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It would be pretty funny if KOS-MOS or Nightmare ended up playable, especially the former with how the rumors of her being 5 were everywhere before BAM it’s Byleth time
Makes me think more of how his predictions won't turn out right. Just because one has a source, does not mean they are right.

Now can we drop the discussion about him?
 

7NATOR

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I heard he mentioned something about a list of Bandai Namco characters as costumes? I know KOS-MOS and Nightmare were in that list, who else?
That's something i wanted more clarification if it was 100% confirmed they would be costumes

pretty much apprantly Fatman has a list of characters considered Deconfirmed for Playable, or rejected characters. Because Cuphead was on the list and is now a Mii Costume, he says the others on that list might be Miis

The thing is that I don't know how much of it is "Confirmed Insider Info" and how much is just Speculation. for one are these characters actually straight deconfirmed for FP2? How would they know they are deconfirmed if essentially they probably don't know who's in FP2? It's all weird and I need Fatman to clarify and stuff

But yeah KOS-MOS and Nightmare were on the list, along with Ms.PAC-MAN. Fatman also stated there were 6 costumes heard for Namco or something and that's why he thinks we'll get Namco character because more evidence of them getting full pack. But I Don't know personally, you got to ask him
 
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