Honestly Kiryu pops up more because he makes sense with the focus Sega has been putting on the series, but for me personally it's a combination of playing more Kiwami and realizing how much I like him as a character, plus wanting a heavy hitting brawler with Heihachi out of the picture, that's made him shoot up my list. Arle is just underneath him since I also love Puyo Puyo.
I like the Sega and Capcom comparison. I think both fans of those companies have a lot of overlap with series' and neither company is definitely totally gonna be in, so it's easy to look at a wide range of selections from those companies and be excited.
Sega is also a cool case because it feels that a second Sonic character like Tails or Eggman, Arle, Kiryu, a Streets of Rage rep, a classic character like the Bonanza Bros, a crazy pick like Hornet, Ulala, AiAi, a Shining character, Sakura Shinguji, a Phantasy Star or Phantasy Star Online character, etc etc, could all make a big splash and be exciting in Smash and bring something unique to the game, so it's hard to pick a single favorite when it comes to who we want to see.
That said Kiryu Monday who's with me