Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Nemuresu]

Because Rex's game came out a year ago while Byleth's game is coming out now.

Timing. Rex wouldn't be seen as probable presumably because his game is pushing two years old.

Coming a year later means jack when we have Banjo and Joker in the DLC. Despite how much I don't like Rex, he's still a popular character and Xenoblade 2 sold very well; so what kind of hesitance would Nintendo have then?

 

[Opossum]

So was Persona 5.

Third parties are generally bigger draws. I figured that much was obvious.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Let me guess. Does her name have a hyphen in it? lol


Now that I think about it, I'd actually really like Augumon.

That’s Xenosaga, not Xenoblade

Speaking of, Michael the Spikester you forgot KOS-MOS bro

in case it’s not obvious I’m alluding to the possibility of Elma being in the pass instead of Rex

 

[GoodGrief741]

With Rex's massive popularity, I find the idea that Nintendo decided he wouldn't be profitable laughable.

Also if this new leak is real then we get Hero tomorrow (nice!) and Bandai Namco's chances for a new character are dead (not as nice, but I think Bamco would rather just have their characters be base roster). Either way I think a Capcom character is kind of a given, and it would be interesting to see what new company they bring in.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Speclation takes a turn then. We could possibility see Yuri as the Namco rep. Maybe even Agumon or Nightmare.

Why show Lloyd as a Mii costume if another Tales character is getting in then? Wouldn't they show Lloyd's mii costume for Yuri's character's release information video?
If Lloyd gets shown as a Mii costume in Hero's video then I believe this means the end of a Tales rep. Same stuff applies to Heihachi.

 

[Opossum]

With Rex's massive popularity, I find the idea that Nintendo decided he wouldn't be profitable laughable.

Popularity that wasn't really shown until Smash Ultimate was teased. By all means that may have been too late for them to notice.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Popularity that wasn't really shown until Smash Ultimate was teased. By all means that may have been too late for them to notice.

Then it's not a 'Rex isn't profitable', but once again a 'Rex was too late'.

Also Xenoblade 2 came out in December of 2017 so I don't know what timeline you're working with but that was before Smash Ultimate got teased.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Then it's not a 'Rex isn't profitable', but once again a 'Rex was too late'.

Also Xenoblade 2 came out in December of 2017 so I don't know what timeline you're working with but that was before Smash Ultimate got teased.

I think this is referring to the trailer showing that Inkling would be the first newcomer.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Popularity that wasn't really shown until Smash Ultimate was teased. By all means that may have been too late for them to notice.

They added Corrin when the general public didn’t even know of their existence at Smash 4’s launch.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I think this is referring to the trailer showing that Inkling would be the first newcomer.

Which was shown in March 2018.

 

[Opossum]

Then it's not a 'Rex isn't profitable', but once again a 'Rex was too late'.

Also Xenoblade 2 came out in December of 2017 so I don't know what timeline you're working with but that was before Smash Ultimate got teased.

I don't think you're getting what I'm saying.

For DLC, third parties are always a draw, and as such aren't determined by internal Nintendo business decisions. They're irrelevant to my point. First parties, though, Nintendo would have control of, and the more contemporary and current they are, the better the chance of them turning a higher profit. If they're unaware for the demand of a newly released character and a future release character, going with the latter is a safer business decision.

A lot of people tend to overcomplicate this.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Speaking of, Michael the Spikester you forgot KOS-MOS bro

Dammit I'm always overlooking her apparently...

Forgot too but a Dark Souls rep as well. Seems like another sleeper/dark horse pick Sakurai would do.

 

[Deleted member]

I would think that if Rex is not in the pass it doesn't mean he wouldn't sell but rather that there were other options were considered by Nintendo. If the pass is all 3rd party then that pretty much seals Rex's reason for not being in the pass as the focus being all 3rd party and why he got a Mii costume as consolation prize as if he would've made it in other circumstances.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

That’s Xenosaga, not Xenoblade

Speaking of, Michael the Spikester you forgot KOS-MOS bro

in case it’s not obvious I’m alluding to the possibility of Elma being in the pass instead of Rex

She appeared in Xenoblade Chronicles 2! It counts! lol

I was going to edit my comment with something like "Well, I suppose KOS-MOS isn't a Xenoblade character but neither is whoever this Lora person is." but I had to leave the computer for a bit. Who is Lora by the way. I don't remember that character.

 

[Nemuresu]

I don't think you're getting what I'm saying.

For DLC, third parties are always a draw, and as such aren't determined by internal Nintendo business decisions. They're irrelevant to my point. First parties, though, Nintendo would have control of, and the more contemporary and current they are, the better the chance of them turning a higher profit. If they're unaware for the demand of a newly released character and a future release character, going with the latter is a safer business decision.

A lot of people tend to overcomplicate this.

Oh sure, because Corrin had such an amazing reception that Nintendo will want to capitalize on his "success".

If they really decided the DLC early on last year, it's most likely that they choose the characters based fan demand and becoming the biggest crossover out there.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

She appeared in Xenoblade Chronicles 2! It counts! lol

I was going to edit my comment with something like "Well, I suppose KOS-MOS isn't a Xenoblade character but neither is whoever this Lora person is." but I had to leave the computer for a bit. Who is Lora by the way. I don't remember that character.

She’s from the prequel, Torna

 

[Opossum]

Oh sure, because Corrin had such an amazing reception that Nintendo will want to capitalize on his "success".

If they really decided the DLC early on last year, it's most likely that they choose the characters based fan demand and becoming the biggest crossover out there.

The children on Gamefaqs don't necessarily account for the entire Smash fanbase. Nintendo would have more comprehensive sales data than what is publicly available. Corrin very likely turned a good profit if they continue down that path again.

People need to realize that giving a video on YouTube an Angry Arrow doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme of things. It's asinine to use Corrin as an example of what not to do when you don't know how well Corrin sold.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

She’s from the prequel, Torna

Ah! The only one I didn't play. I really gotta get around to finishing Xenoblade Chronicles 2 now that I don't have to worry about stick drift anymore.

 

[UberPyro64]

Lupin leak makes sense if Hero is really releasing tomorrow. Someone from NoA would know or have seen the video by now for sure.

Rip Namco rep, but it just makes my Doom/Resident Evil prediction all the more possible if legit.

The only thing that makes me doubt it is the music stuff.

 

[kylexv]

I just realized something.

The Pichu, Pokemon Trainer, and Isabelle amiibo come out on 7/26. However, they are coming out a week early (on 7/19) in Japan. However, unlike the patch that was just to add amiibo compatibility for Daisy, Ken, and Young Link less than two weeks before 3.0, there has been no patch to add compatibility for these amiibo. Thus, a patch should be coming out soon, according to my theory. Whether it will release Hero or not is up in the air though.

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.

 

[SneakyLink]

Lupin leak makes sense if Hero is really releasing tomorrow. Someone from NoA would know or have seen the video by now for sure.

Rip Namco rep, but it just makes my Doom/Resident Evil prediction all the more possible if legit.

The only thing that makes me doubt it is the music stuff.

Lupin Leak is definitely fake.

One of the Mii costumes listed (Daruga Knight) is from a TV show, not a video game.

(Side note: Maybe they meant to type Gil from Tower of Druaga?)

Quick edit: I actually think Daruga Knight = Gil because nothing I've researched gives me a "Daruga Knight"

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Lupin leak makes sense if Hero is really releasing tomorrow. Someone from NoA would know or have seen the video by now for sure.

Rip Namco rep, but it just makes my Doom/Resident Evil prediction all the more possible if legit.

The only thing that makes me doubt it is the music stuff.

Yeah. I can imagine them adding more songs to Final Fantasy, but not for free.

 

[UberPyro64]

Lupin Leak is definitely fake.

One of the Mii costumes listed (Daruga Knight) is from a TV show, not a video game.

(Side note: Maybe they meant to type Gil from Tower of Druaga?)

That's exactly who I thought they meant.

 

[OrpheusTelos]

I'm not expecting the Lupin leak to be true, but if it is boy are things going to be.... interesting. The Bamco costumes would all but deconfirm the Mii Costume theory, the lack of a Geno costume will raise some serious questions, and the Byleth costume would hopefully kill any amount of Fire Emblem paranoia within the community. Honestly I'm just hoping that the sudden buff to Final Fantasy's representation is true because it really deserves more than two songs. I'm not holding my breath or anything but that would make me super happy, even if it is just a few extra songs.

 

[Deleted member]

Aside from the video with a possible July release for the Hero, why did the Lupin III post gained so much notoriety?

 

[SneakyLink]

Aside from the video with a possible July release for the Hero, why did the Lupin III post gained so much notoriety?

If I had to guess, it's because people want Hero to release sooner rather than latter.

Other than that, I don't really have an answer.

 

[Nemuresu]

The children on Gamefaqs don't necessarily account for the entire Smash fanbase. Nintendo would have more comprehensive sales data than what is publicly available. Corrin very likely turned a good profit if they continue down that path again.

People need to realize that giving a video on YouTube an Angry Arrow doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme of things. It's asinine to use Corrin as an example of what not to do when you don't know how well Corrin sold.

And Nintendo so far has only delivered third-party characters, and we're already halfway through the Fighters Pass. Not to mention, they clearly looked at what people wanted if they gave Sakurai a list with Banjo on it.

They're not the smartest company, but I have little to no reason to expect them to suddenly throw a Fire Emblem character after going through three hype picks.

Aside from the video with a possible July release for the Hero, why did the Lupin III post gained so much notoriety?

Something about it not mentioning the Geno Mii costume, which may lead to the character being part of the Fighters Pass.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Something about it not mentioning the Geno Mii costume, which may lead to the character being part of the Fighters Pass.

Imagine if Geno was the last character revealed for the Fighters Pass. The smash community would rejoice, and everyone else would be angry and confused. lol

 

[Opossum]

I mean even if the Geno costume doesn't come back, he still has a spirit in the game, and that's just as damning.

 

[TheYungLink]

Imagine if Geno was the last character revealed for the Fighters Pass. The smash community would rejoice, and everyone else would be angry and confused. lol

So, the opposite of the November 2018 Smash Direct?

Edit: to clarify, I didn't mind Ken, Incineroar, and Piranha Plant, I just thought this was a funny observation.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

So, the opposite of the November 2018 Smash Direct?

Heh, pretty much. Grinch Hoax certainly didn't help. Nor did the Box Theory. Along with Verge's leaks as well. Expectations were understandably not tempered.

 

[UberPyro64]

Imagine if Geno was the last character revealed for the Fighters Pass. The smash community would rejoice, and everyone else would be angry and confused. lol

I think it would be more likely that Geno would be a bonus fighter. So let's say Jill/Leon and Doom Slayer are the 4th and 5th DLC Fighters. Released in December and February. Then Geno would release in April.

I think that would be a pretty amazing finish.

 

[Guynamednelson]

The children on Gamefaqs don't necessarily account for the entire Smash fanbase. Nintendo would have more comprehensive sales data than what is publicly available. Corrin very likely turned a good profit if they continue down that path again.

People need to realize that giving a video on YouTube an Angry Arrow doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme of things. It's asinine to use Corrin as an example of what not to do when you don't know how well Corrin sold.

And most of those people just wanted to buy the new Smash character. They didn't care that they were from a new game.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don't think you're getting what I'm saying.

For DLC, third parties are always a draw, and as such aren't determined by internal Nintendo business decisions. They're irrelevant to my point. First parties, though, Nintendo would have control of, and the more contemporary and current they are, the better the chance of them turning a higher profit. If they're unaware for the demand of a newly released character and a future release character, going with the latter is a safer business decision.

A lot of people tend to overcomplicate this.

Even by the earliest estimates for when DLC was decided, Rex was already popular and that demand was a known fact.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

So if Final Fantasy does get, what was it? Three? Five? New songs what do you think they would be? I would laugh if any of them were remixes of Let the Battles Begin! and Fight On!.

I think it would be more likely that Geno would be a bonus fighter. So let's say Jill/Leon and Doom Slayer are the 4th and 5th DLC Fighters. Released in December and February. Then Geno would release in April.

I think that would be a pretty amazing finish.

That seems reasonable.

People need to realize that giving a video on YouTube an Angry Arrow doesn't really mean much in the grand scheme of things. It's asinine to use Corrin as an example of what not to do when you don't know how well Corrin sold.

From what I understand Corrin didn't really have a large target audience; The Smash community didn't want another Fire Emblem character, the Fire Emblem community hated Corrin (though I suppose not at the time), and the casual crowd didn't know who he was.

Granted the amount of people who just wanted all of the Smash characters was probably pretty high though.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

And most of those people just wanted to buy the new Smash character. They didn't care that they were from a new game.

That too.

Besides that, there was a lot of Corrin hate all over the net. It's pretty clear s/he was still overall popular, enough they got thrown into various other Fire Emblem games. Cause I don't remember Fates being nearly that popular either. So something clearly clicked. It's likely sales data. That said, despite many areas of the net having some backlash(which is was pretty vocal at times, including this site alone), it's not like it meant Corrin was vastly unpopular overall. Vocal Minority issue looks like it's the overall case.

 

[Deleted member]

And Nintendo so far has only delivered third-party characters, and we're already halfway through the Fighters Pass. Not to mention, they clearly looked at what people wanted if they gave Sakurai a list with Banjo on it.

They're not the smartest company, but I have little to no reason to expect them to suddenly throw a Fire Emblem character after going through three hype picks.


Something about it not mentioning the Geno Mii costume, which may lead to the character being part of the Fighters Pass.

So pretty much speculation for Geno. Anyways, I hope its fake. I want DQ Mii costumes and more songs.

 

[Flyboy]

Honestly, I just brought up Lupin leak because:

1. It's fun to speculate on short term rumors with easy kill dates.

2. I really like Lupin III so the guy using the character as an image tickles me pink.

3. It's totally wild and would be pretty great if we got more FF music.

I very very very very very much doubt its veracity and I'm not trying to say it's real, but it'd be interesting and really throw a wrench into, uh, everything.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

So if Nintendo doesn't drop a trailer showing all Hero can do tomorrow before Bruch in the US then the rumor is dead in the water

 

[Nemuresu]

So if Final Fantasy does get, what was it? Three? Five? New songs what do you think they would be? I would laugh if any of them were remixes of Let the Battles Begin! and Fight On!.

One Winged Angel and the two(?) tracks that were present in Cloud's presentation (the Chocobo song and one I can't recall). Sounds lazy but clever enough to happen.