Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Michael the Spikester]

I always pretty much figure if true that Waluigi would be the most likely assist to be promoted no question asked.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

What I don't like about the whole PapaGenos thing is that he's creating a biased narrative. Apparently there's a list of characters whose chances are affected by whatever's going on, but he's not sharing the whole list or the reason the list is more likely or the reason that Waluigi and Geno are the only ones on the list that make sense. He's basically saying Waluigi and Geno are more likely than I thought. Trust me 'cause I said so.

He's had sources tell him stuff before, but he doesn't have a great track record of interpreting that info and tends to extrapolate on things even if they are confirmed to mean nothing. Some of that is covering his bases, but it's hard to trust the interpretation of someone whose interpretations have historically been all over the place, especially when there's no supporting argument.

 

[Heoj]

What I don't like about the whole PapaGenos thing is that he's creating a biased narrative. Apparently there's a list of characters whose chances are affected by whatever's going on, but he's not sharing the whole list or the reason the list is more likely or the reason that Waluigi and Geno are the only ones on the list that make sense. He's basically saying Waluigi and Geno are more likely than I thought. Trust me 'cause I said so.

He's had sources tell him stuff before, but he doesn't have a great track record of interpreting that info and tends to extrapolate on things even if they are confirmed to mean nothing. Some of that is covering his bases, but it's hard to trust the interpretation of someone whose interpretations have historically been all over the place, especially when there's no supporting argument.

That sort of connects with how we think its about legacy xp since if he were to say that shadow and metal sonic were the other characters then it would make it pretty obvious that its about legacy xp

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Yeah, this is takes me back to december 2015 when, shortly after Project M's development got shut down, people started speculate about Isaac being one of the final DLC characters for Sm4sh, since he was going to be playable alongside Lyn and Knuckles in one of the upcoming updates for the mod.

And even though PG seens to trust this "source" there's always the possibility that is some kind of troll, just like the Monsun rumor (I don't find it very likely, but we are talking about a guy that makes a video about every single theory that gets brought in his Discord server)

the what rumor?

 

[WeirdChillFever]

What I don't like about the whole PapaGenos thing is that he's creating a biased narrative. Apparently there's a list of characters whose chances are affected by whatever's going on, but he's not sharing the whole list or the reason the list is more likely or the reason that Waluigi and Geno are the only ones on the list that make sense. He's basically saying Waluigi and Geno are more likely than I thought. Trust me 'cause I said so.

He's had sources tell him stuff before, but he doesn't have a great track record of interpreting that info and tends to extrapolate on things even if they are confirmed to mean nothing. Some of that is covering his bases, but it's hard to trust the interpretation of someone whose interpretations have historically been all over the place, especially when there's no supporting argument.

That form of not-exactly-a-leaker but also not apparently a regular speculator does cause some ire. Either present leaks or speculate, but it’s very hard to discuss a piece of speculation if the source is (though understandably so) kept personal.

 

[ALongWistfulSquiggle]

That sort of connects with how we think its about legacy xp since if he were to say that shadow and metal sonic were the other characters then it would make it pretty obvious that its about legacy xp

I get why he doesn't give more info. It would give away a lot, potentially even the identity of his source. I guess I just wish he didn't say anything if he can't say more. If it is legacy xp, the character list makes some sense, but I don't get why a mod getting shut down would lead to such secrecy. If it's not legacy xp, then it could be literally anything and we don't know if it has the weight PapaGenos seems to think it has.

I do believe PapaGenos is just trying to be as transparent as possible. It's just that sometimes transparency isn't the best way to handle things, especially if you can't give the whole picture and it leads to skewed information.

I suppose it was only meant for the discord, and I'm assuming he keeps the discord a little closer to what's going on, so I guess I shouldn't be too upset. It's just that he's the only one who can do anything with his information since there's basically nothing he can say except his conclusions.

 

[-crump-]

Dang I missed my chance to rant about the new Paper Mario I haven’t played yet. I can’t wait to spend $60 on it so I can complain about the mechanics and the obsession with paper gimmicks without getting that one screenshot from SPM sent my way 20 times.

Anyway the PapaGenos thing seems silly. He seems like a nice dude but he’ll jump on pretty much anything that involves Geno, regardless of validity.

 

[PLANTMAN]

this majorly affects is geno and waluigi as the other characters dont have much of a chance.

Not really. This can effect any character than geno & waluigi. This seems like bias to me

legacy xp

This is where i stop. Aren’t they just modders?

 

[Guynamednelson]

You know, couldn't Nintendo C&D Legacy XP not because it includes a character they want to be DLC for SSBU, but because it's based off Project M, which itself was involved with legal trouble with Nintendo?

 

[XorahnGaia]

the what rumor?

I'm referring to the Gordon freeman rumor that made the rounds last december. It was made by someone close to Sabi (Monsun or Munsun, i honestly can't remember the correct spelling of their name) just to troll PapaGeno.

 

[SharkLord]

Who would be Hero’s counterpart?

I'm hope Reimu ends up as an in-between for Hero and Terry. Like Hero's she's from a long-running series that's hugely popular in Japan, not so much in the West. If she end up like Terry, she'd have a unique moveset, lots of cameos and songs, and a sudden surge of interest for Touhou in the West. At least, that's what I'm hoping for.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Here's my thing.

When it comes to leaks, usually the leaker is forthright with the leak in question and straight up says what it is.

In this case, the narrative is that somebody with information and has been "proven correct/to be real" says that, "the 'chances' of Geno and Waluigi" specifically have gone up because of some other information.

It's not even a Smash leak. It's an arbitrary concept of "chances" without any actual backing of a connection to Smash. This is also pairing two characters who despite being in the same series couldn't be more different: One is a first party Mario character Nintendo has complete control over while the other is a 3rd party character that Nintendo has no control over. Ergo, what actual event would raise their chances at the same time regarding Smash specifically?

This isn't to say that this is all nonsense, because I don't have the details. But I'm not exactly sure how it all makes sense.

 

[RileyXY1]

You know, couldn't Nintendo C&D Legacy XP not because it includes a character they want to be DLC for SSBU, but because it's based off Project M, which itself was involved with legal trouble with Nintendo?

Yeah. Nintendo didn't take down Project M directly, but all discussion of it was banned from all Miiverse channels.

 

[Garteam]

Assuming Papagenos' information is legit (for the sake of conversation), there's really two scenarios where he could come to the conclusion that one of Geno and/or Waluigi is coming to Ultimate:

1. The Legacy XP cease and desist was done specifically because one of the unique characters for that game is coming to Ultimate. Seeing how Legacy XP added the cut Melee vets, Lucina, Ridley (all of which are already in the game), Metal Sonic (who's likely not happening unless he's an echo), Geno, Waluigi, and Shadow, one of those final three could be DLC.

Personally, I'm not sold on this for a variety of reasons. First, it would be strange for Nintendo to tell the Legacy XP crew exactly why they're shutting down the game (especially if it involves confidential information not available to the public) when a standard "you're using our copyright without permission" would suffice. Likewise, it would be weird if Nintendo was putting their boot down now when the Melee vets and Ridley were major additions to Ultimate's base roster. Finally, why isn't Shadow on his list of likely characters? He's in Legacy XP and assist trophies clearly aren't an issue if Waluigi is eligible. If we're just looking at characters in Legacy XP that could be Ultimate DLC, there's nothing that would really make Shadow less likely than Geno or Waluigi.

2. The July Direct is the Mario Presentation that was supposed to happen at E3. The schedule leaks and a Smash reveal is mentioned, it just doesn't list exactly who the character is.

This one seems a little more likely to me. We know Smash is basically on a need to know basis internally, so it wouldn't surprise me if the direct's outline just mentioned "Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: Fighter Pack #7" without giving any info beyond that. From the fact it's a Mario Direct, you could infer that the character is a Mario character and (of the Mario cast) Geno and Waluigi are the forerunners to be a DLC character. It would also explain the whole "it could be someone else, but I wouldn't count it", it's an educated guess based on previous speculation.

Granted, this whole thing could also be bull****. But eh, it's something to talk about.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I won't lie. The GX preview murdered any hope I had for Origami King

 

[MooMew64]

I won't lie. The GX preview murdered any hope I had for Origami King

Is...is it that bad?

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Is...is it that bad?

If you were looking for traditional RPG systems, yes.
But I'm personally giving this one the benefit of the doubt as the battles don't have the tedium problem of the other two.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Is...is it that bad?

It seems like they didn't learn at all.

 

[Cosmic77]

Maybe it's because Sticker Star set the bar so low, but Color Splash felt like an improvement. Wasn't close to being my ideal Paper Mario game, but I did enjoy it.

No XP is disappointing, but I'll continue watching more previews before forming an opinion. I have seen a few things so far that I really like, such as equippable weapons, nutty writing, a new antagonist, and the graphics.

 

[RileyXY1]

I find this new rumor to be a big bunch of bullcrap.

 

[ZelDan]

I really don't buy the Legacy XP stuff at all. If Waluigi was really an issue, than why hasn't Super Smash Flash 2 gotten a takedown? Also I believe Geno is in Super Smash Crusade, and I don't think that's been taken down.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Is...is it that bad?

No. It's a traditional rpg, but like the previous games, there's no traditional battle experience. It's not like Color Splash which has a form of battle experience either. So battles in themselves only have enemy drop rewards.

People want more classic leveling up these days, so, it doesn't sit well with others. It's basically just another rpg where grinding levels in itself isn't a thing, which is not an actual bad thing in itself, as long as there's worthwhile enemy drops that increase the game's options. Which so far, that's all we've seen. So it has a good start for that already. It's the first game where the inventory system is handled well besides just being big(cause really, the tiny inventory systems in the first three games got annoying really really fast). But unlike SS and CS, the inventory isn't just the only way to use moves via consumable items. Now the moves are proper equipment again.

The biggest issue I've seen is that the battles are a little too fast instead of having a bit of slowness to make the strategy more fun. Which isn't really a good thing. They're at least a lot more engaging due to new strategy on the battlefield, but with how quickly they're over, it's not as good as it can be.

 

[RileyXY1]

I really don't buy the Legacy XP stuff at all. If Waluigi was really an issue, than why hasn't Super Smash Flash 2 gotten a takedown? Also I believe Geno is in Super Smash Crusade, and I don't think that's been taken down.

I think that it is indeed fake.

 

[KillerCage]

I like Super Paper Mario and Thousand Year Door about equally. Paper Mario is behind them but not by much.

Sticker Star had nice music, but that's all I can say.

Didn't play Color Splash. Maybe I'll try it if I can find it cheap.

Practically the same thoughts as me.
PM64 was a very good game (Bowser felt threatening for once) but TTYD is clearly superior in all aspects.
SPM is decent gameplay wise, but its story eclipses TTYD's tale: cast of characters between TTYD and SPM are about equal.
PMSS has some decent tunes, but I can't go back due its story and gameplay or should I say its lack of.
I didn't play PMCS despite having a Wii U due to being burned by SS.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I wonder why Geno and Waluigi are specified. Unless it's Mario series characters in general and PG missed out Paper Mario and Captian Toad.

 

[CureParfait]

The Legacy XP's rumor sounds like it is fake since there would be a lot more stuff taken down if that were the case.

 

[PLANTMAN]

I'm referring to the Gordon freeman rumor that made the rounds last december. It was made by someone close to Sabi (Monsun or Munsun, i honestly can't remember the correct spelling of their name) just to troll PapaGeno.

Monsün isn’t really a leaker he’s just being funny. He’s a cool dude btw

 

[MarioRaccoon]

Take every rumour with absolute grain of salt.

We are now on a territory in which any character can be part of this new FP2; that included Geno, Waluigi, Shantae, Rex, Travis, Dante, Isaac, Crash, Lara Croft and so on. So speculation is on cloud levels. Everything is possible for now.

 

[RileyXY1]

The Legacy XP's rumor sounds like it is fake since there would be a lot more stuff taken down if that were the case.

That's what I'm saying. Some of these characters are also in Crusade and Flash 2 and neither of those were taken down.

 

[MooMew64]

I have played and finished every single Paper Mario apart from N64 (was before my time and I just haven't gotten around to finishing it yet), and my thoughts on SS and CS are...Complicated.

Look. I can respect wanting to do something different. I really, really can. However, there's being different, and then there's completely throwing everything out for no good reason, all in the name of "keeping things fresh", and IMO that's a horrible reason to change a franchise like how they did Paper Mario. Honestly, there isn't much I can say on this topic that Arlo already hasn't (go watch his PM videos, they are insanely good and pretty much sum up my thoughts on the series). Not having EXP isn't the core issue at hand here, it's lack of any meaningful motivation to battle, and satisfying sense of growth that makes me feel like I'm on a journey. It takes the charming simplicity the series was known for, that appealed to all ages, and needlessly dumbed it down and stripped all sense of reward and motivation from one of the games' core, driving mechanics. WHY should I battle? WHY shouldn't I just ignore everything and just beeline to the next puzzle and obligatory funny ha ha dialogue? At this point, it feels like they're more interested in designing a puzzle game or jokey cartoon than they are anything resembling an RPG; heck, Tanabe has repeatedly told people that he thinks the series has never been an RPG, that it's "an action adventure" series. Ironic, considering the original name for the games were "Mario Story" and "Mario RPG", and they were the spritual successor of, you guessed it, and RPG.

I totally respect people who like the new direction. Some people really aren't bothered by it and wonder what the big fuss is about, and that's fine, everyone's got an opinion and their own taste, but I also have to be honest that I'm disappointed by Nintendo's treatment of Paper Mario. Their refusal to see what made it so special to us, the refusal to even budge just a little bit and try to meet us even half way...No, they're not interested in doing any of that. Paper Mario is being regulated to a jokey, weird experimental off-shoot rather than the grand epic it once was, and that's pretty lame in my honest opinion.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

Nintendo marketing a new Paper Mario by making everything unclear worked out for them

They even went out of their way to say partners are KIND OF back to give us hope lmao

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Can someone explain why this clickbaiter is once again being taken super seriously?

 

[Wunderwaft]

Can someone explain why this clickbaiter is once again being taken super seriously?

A combination of blind and naive hope from some fanbases and because there isn't anything new to go off of and speculate, so as a result any high school gossip rumor would get noticed.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Can someone explain why this clickbaiter is once again being taken super seriously?

Because people are probably bored despite a new character just got revealed two weeks ago.

 

[Heoj]

A combination of blind and naive hope from some fanbases and because there isn't anything new to go off of and speculate, so as a result any high school gossip rumor would get noticed.

Blind and naive hope is a really jerk way to put it imo

 

[The Rhythm Theif]

A combination of blind and naive hope from some fanbases and because there isn't anything new to go off of and speculate, so as a result any high school gossip rumor would get noticed.

Not going to lie, that is kind of a terrible way to put it. But that's just what I think.

 

[MBRedboy31]

One thing I wonder about regarding the Paper Mario EXP debate is, like, shouldn‘t the point of battles be enjoying the battles themselves? If the battle system is only worth partaking in for the rewards, isn’t that a problem with the battle system itself?

On the topic of progression, I completely get wanting the sense of progression, but this can be done without needing an arbitrary reward such as EXP. For example, in Smash, we don’t play matches over and over for the EXP, do we? There isn’t in-game progression (except in stuff like WoL,) but there is still a feeling of progression due to one’s skill level (hopefully) increasing the more they practice. Same thing with stuff like main series Mario platformers; Mario doesn’t get stronger over the course of the game, but the player potentially gets better at controlling Mario and with dealing with common hazards.

Thus, in theory, in Origami King, the player could progress by getting better at manipulating the arena circles and better at managing Mario’s inventory. Or maybe that doesn’t matter and the game is too easy anyway, IDK...

 

[PLANTMAN]

You know all that legacy xp stuff reminds me of the time when noa took down that kos-mos smash mod & people though kos-mos was the next fighter. Lol

good times

 

[Captain Shwampy]

One thing I wonder about regarding the Paper Mario EXP debate is, like, shouldn‘t the point of battles be enjoying the battles themselves? If the battle system is only worth partaking in for the rewards, isn’t that a problem with the battle system itself?

No

You level up to get stronger.
You work hard to take down god. Thats the point of leveling up.
When you take that out I feel no need to even partake in battles, why should I?

 

[MooMew64]

One thing I wonder about regarding the Paper Mario EXP debate is, like, shouldn‘t the point of battles be enjoying the battles themselves? If the battle system is only worth partaking in for the rewards, isn’t that a problem with the battle system itself?

On the topic of progression, I completely get wanting the sense of progression, but this can be done without needing an arbitrary reward such as EXP. For example, in Smash, we don’t play matches over and over for the EXP, do we? There isn’t in-game progression (except in stuff like WoL,) but there is still a feeling of progression due to one’s skill level (hopefully) increasing the more they practice. Same thing with stuff like main series Mario platformers; Mario doesn’t get stronger over the course of the game, but the player potentially gets better at controlling Mario and with dealing with common hazards.

Thus, in theory, in Origami King, the player could progress by getting better at manipulating the arena circles and better at managing Mario’s inventory. Or maybe that doesn’t matter and the game is too easy anyway, IDK...

The battle system itself does matter as well, but we're hearing things like "most fights end in one turn" and "anything that isn't a boss fight is easy", it's very concerning IMO.

Plus, Smash Bros. is a game where you are directly controlling the character at all times and and requiring more player input and finesse. With a turn based battle system, you kind of need to have at least some semblance of strategy and and difficulty to keep people entertained, otherwise we're left with pressing a few buttons and watching a cutscene over and over. 64 and TTYD handled this splendidly by having fights be simple enough for children to comprehend, but also enjoyable enough for adults with varied strategies, a unique badge system, and simple, engaging combat. Modern Paper Mario seems to forgo this simplicity for gimmicks, and not everyone likes that, unfortunately (myself included).