1. Another character from a first party series, this time a returning series like Byleth was in FP1: Rex, from Xenoblade Chronicles 2. Not an assist trophy, so viable, and Sakurai specifically mentioned Rex as a character who would have been in had the timing worked out. Now the timing can.
2. Third party character from a first party series: Geno. Highly requested, one of the last remaining fan favorites like Ridley, King K Rool and Banjo & Kazooie. Probably wouldn’t be very popular outside of the Smash echo chamber, but seems like if he had any chance this is it. Though I suspect his series will be “Super Mario RPG” rather than Super Mario, and may only contain songs from that game. However, that’s my want, because the alternative is more likely, Paper Mario to coincidence with the new game.
The rest would be strictly 3rd party characters, 2 highly requested ones from Japan and the West, and 1 out there pick no one expects. That ones much harder to pick, obviously.
3. Sora: Easily one of the most requested characters, and would be a “How did they get them?” moment for a lot of people. I don’t think Disney is that hard to work with for Nintendo, though Imran’s comments do make me a bit more critical of my own assumptions. Unlike Imran, though, I doubt Master Chief as an alternative. I feel like every character must have some presence in Japan, and Banjo & Kazooie still was recognized by people of a certain generation who grew up with an N64. Master Chief doesn’t have much in comparison. I think a more likely alternative would be Lloyd, very popular in Japan. Wouldn’t have as big of a headline in the West as the other 2, but still a highly requested character. Doom is also highly possible, and has more historical significance, but I feel like a lot of speculation is because of Doom being on Switch. Can’t say for sure, but that’s how it appears.
4. Crash: This is my biggest want, and would be the Banjo & Kazooie of the second pass. Western mascot character, more iconic, and makes sense as a former console rival coming in like Sonic was for Brawl. Should be as shocking to see happen for real, though lessened by the fact Crash is now owned by Activision, who has a decent relationship with Nintendo.
5. The out there character no one expects could be anyone. I’m thinking a character from either Arc System Works or Koei Tecmo. The recent debunked rumor did give me the idea that Sol from Guilty Gear could be an interesting pick, though from what I’ve read, perhaps too much like Terry. And ARMS fulfills the role of a fighting game character in FP2. I’m less certain about Hayabusa, even though I think Koei Tecmo makes sense as the next new company to come into Smash. Also doesn’t work well for this category given how much speculation has been on him. Maybe Dyansty Warriors, though I don’t know if that conflicts with Sakurai’s stated aversion to adding real or historical people. A BlazBlue character perhaps. Either way, whomever it is, it’s someone I would currently give a 1-5% chance of being in, and as such hard to say with any confidence. I just know there is going to be at least one.