Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[RileyXY1]

Personally, I wouldn’s say he is that much in an incredible disadvantage, but still an incredible disadvantage, nonetheless. These fans are gullible for anything, if you ask me.

Another question is profitability. Sure, there is demand for him, but Geno is still obscure as heck. Would he be worth it? Would he sell much aside from fans?

I also have reason to believe Nintendo has little interest in choosing Geno as a DLC character. Now, this may be different with Sakurai. Either way, Geno has his disadvantages, still.

I just wish my fellow Geno fans would realize this and see past Fatmanonice’s overhyping.

Yeah. He makes Geno look more likely than he actually is.

 

[SKX31]

Oh i meant talks for a Subsidary of Tencent buying the company that owns SNK. Like were they just old rumors that just disappeared from the limelight?

Oh, sorry about that! Lemme check.

Apparently the talks have stalled. No news since April, so it appears that LeYou's (and Warframe's) price is the issue, and the coronavirus has apparently affected negotiations. They do appear to still be committed, but I'm not sure if SNK will be at all affected if LeYou's bought out (since it's Orient Securities and 37 Games who are the primary owners and SNK's never been mentioned in articles about this AFAIK).

One thing I'm willing to bet is that we are going to get at the very least 1 more western character in season 2.

Who it is ? I don't know.

But it seems like a sure thing after what Sakurai said about wanting to get involved with more western gaming/characters when Banjo-Kazooie got in, I mean "Most" of Japan's biggest gaming icons are already in Smash, So there isn't too much major "Star Power" left out there, That is if they wanna go with a big name.

But in terms of "Western" and "Platforming" category Crash Bandicoot and Rayman are the 2 safest bets in my opinion, Both would fit in very well and seem built for Smash like most platforming all-stars/icons.

I would be cool with Rayman and I'm somewhat rooting for him maybe will even pick up "Legends" for Switch if he makes it in, But Crash Bandicoot is "Currently" my most wanted and with his next big mainline game coming this fall and a character capable of pleasing both East and West, He seems primed for Smash, But I love myself "Most" platformer characters so hopefully both can make it in the Smash roster.

Master Chief is another "Dark Horse" candidate seeing how Microsoft is already involved regarding Smash and could be a good way for cross promotion for the launch of Halo: Infinte and Xbox Series X, Definitely a big name I would love to see throw hands with Mario in Smash.

I could honestly see 2 Western characters, and albeit it's difficult to guess who my primary reason is the Mii Costumes' inclusion (especially Vault Boy) shows that the language barrier isn't as much of an issue as Sakurai previously believed. Of course, it's still an issue, but not to massive extents.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Do you think the current trend of first party characters hailing from new, marketable games (or shill picks if that is the vernacular you prefer) will continue? Or do you think older/less relevant characters may be chosen?

It’s tough to say.

Historically, any first party pick has been promotional in nature and/or a protagonist/mascot of their respective game. This includes Corrin, Byleth, and to a lesser extent for Min Min. Any 3rd party has also continued the mascot/protagonist, and they mostly came from new series.

That said, now that Min Min opens the door to spirits, and Byleth came from a newer Fire Emblem game, that could hypothetically help someone like Rex.

However, while Rex was mentioned by Sakurai as somebody who has essentially just missed the boat for base game, a few of the factors make things different. ARMS is a single game and has an ensemble cast, but XC has moved on to XCDE. It isn’t the say Rex is irrelevant, after all he’s the newest Xenoblade protagonist. It simply begs the question of, “Will Nintendo choose him?” For now, it’s hard to say.

I would say Pokémon stands a good chance, especially seeing that Min Min’s spirit board uses base game spirits in addition to new ones. That said, something just...rubs me the wrong way with a Sakurai presentation that begs the question, “What is Pokémon?” It worked for Fire Emblem and ARMS because they aren’t Pokémon, a worldwide phenomenon that essentially everyone knows. Sure, they could just not do that part of the segment, but they’ve done it for every single one aside from Joker. It just seems...weird.

For now, it’s hard to say. We got answers with Min Min, but we also got more questions I think along with those answers.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

If Nintendo let's SE pick the next character, they're almost guaranteed to choose a franchise that they have an actual investment in, not SMRPG.

Nintendo and/or Sakurai will have to be the ones who stick their head out for Geno, and sadly, Sakurai didn't do that in this game. It's all up to Nintendo now, and I feel like they're more likely to prefer the same games that SE would want.

Why would Microsoft want to have a character in Smash and it not be one of their major icons, but a rather small character from a game released 20 years ago?
Granted, Banjo and Geno are not really the same scope, but I would not think that specifically would stop Geno from being a character in Ultimate. Especially considering Square already has 2 major iconic characters in the game already, too.

 

[cosmicB]

And Nintendo chose the DLC characters here. Question to the others here, be honest: What are the odds of Square Enix picking a character of their own that is not Geno? I'd like to hear your thoughts, guys.

There's definitely steep competition. Lara Croft, Sora, Crono, 2B, Adam Jensen, a second Final Fantasy rep (there's at least 20 viable characters here), Neku, an Octopath rep (possibly all 8 of them Bowser Jr style), a Bravely rep, a Star Ocean rep, etc.

It all comes down to whether Square Enix wants a promo pick or a fan satisfaction pick. The thing is it's possible to group both together (Sora for example), so unless an SMRPG remake is on the horizon, I'd assume they'd pick someone else.

 

[RileyXY1]

Why would Microsoft want to have a character in Smash and it not be one of their major icons, but a rather small character from a game released 20 years ago?
Granted, Banjo and Geno are not really the same scope, but I would not think that specifically would stop Geno from being a character in Ultimate. Especially considering Square already has 2 major iconic characters in the game already, too.

Square Enix might not think the same way.

 

[CannonStreak]

Higher then you think because of the sheer number of characters they can choose from. Sora, Lara Croft, Sephiroth, Tifa are just a few that come to mind and all 4 of them are more relevant then Geno due to receiving games big games, all of which became hits.

Not higher than I think. I was basically already aware.

 

[CureParfait]

Do you think the current trend of first party characters hailing from new, marketable games (or shill picks if that is the vernacular you prefer) will continue? Or do you think older/less relevant characters may be chosen?

I think it may be a mix of both depending on the direction of where Nintendo/Sakurai wants to be regarding first parties.

 

[Icedragonadam]

I don't see Rex & Pyra happening TBH.

Mainly because Xenoblade 2 a successful game already. The common link between the 1st party DLC newcomers(except Plant who was planned to be base game anyways and its not part of the FP) is that Nintendo clearly didn't think their games would sell without help from Smash. ARMS was forgotten in public eye before March compared to Xenoblade 2. So this seems like this was a way to breath new life into the game and help promote the sequel if there will be one. Whi

But I'm also optimistic about Lloyd now. With Heihachi basically disconfirmed(sorry to his fans). Of course there's still that dread his costume will return with a non Tales rep though. It seems like Sakurai still has issues implementing Tekken's gameplay into Smash. So if there's another fighting game rep, Sol Badguy is the front runner here.

But that said though, it's about time for a new balance patch. With all this time between Byleth and Min Min( with no 7.1.0 unlike with 3.1.0 with Joker to Hero), the changes could be major ones.

 

[Gribbo]

People have identified the exact couch that Sakurai owns.

This isn't relevant to anything, just figured I'd point it out. It doesn't take long for this fandom to find anything out.

What kind of couch is it and what character is it hinting at?

 

[SirBillyBob]

The problem is that nobody knows how profitable any of this is - we don't know how many people have already bought Fighters Pass 2 as soon as it released, or after Min Min was announced (meaning that, no matter who gets revealed, those people would have already paid for the characters regardless), and it's not like we know how much the individual Mii costumes in Smash 4 sold. (which might make a difference depending on how many of certain Mii costumes sold or how that information was interpreted)

Appearing in one game isn't a barrier - plenty of characters on the roster, from Ness to Byleth (not counting Smash Bros. appearances), fit that description. There's plenty of material for stages, spirits, and music when it comes to Super Mario RPG, so that definitely wouldn't be an issue.

You're right, no body knows how profitable this stuff is. But I don't think it's rocket science to assume that a popular character should make more money than a less popular character. Key word is should. And I'm not saying that a one-game appearance is a barrier, Cloud clearly demonstrates this. It's that Geno appeared in a non-main character role 24 years ago. I should've clarified. I also wasn't stating that Geno couldn't have a stage and music, it's just if they want get him in cheaply, they could opt for a bonus fighter path.

 

[Cosmic77]

The amiibo look really nice.

Hero might not get all of his alts, but I guess that's okay. Looking forward to Banjo and Min Min's amiibo.

Why would Microsoft want to have a character in Smash and it not be one of their major icons, but a rather small character from a game released 20 years ago?
Granted, Banjo and Geno are not really the same scope, but I would not think that specifically would stop Geno from being a character in Ultimate. Especially considering Square already has 2 major iconic characters in the game already, too.

Microsoft had been showing support for Banjo getting in Smash for quite some time.

SE on the other hand fails to do the bare minimum and acknowledge Geno. They made Fortune Street for Wii, added a ton of SE stuff including a remix from SMRPG, but couldn't be bothered reference Geno in any capacity.

 

[Guynamednelson]

successful game already

So was ARMS. Just because people went "dead game lel" doesn't mean it didn't sell 2 million. They wouldn't even add Springtron and presumably Dr. Coyle if they didn't think it was a hit.

 

[PK-remling Fire]

Square Enix might not think the same way.

it is also worth noting that Phil Spencer showed support for Banjo being in smash bros, while Square has been pretty silent about it afaik. Not saying that Geno has no chance, but it does seem like Square doesn't care for Geno as much as Microsoft cared for Banjo

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Personally, I wouldn’s say he is that much in an incredible disadvantage, but still an incredible disadvantage, nonetheless. These fans are gullible for anything, if you ask me.

Another question is profitability. Sure, there is demand for him, but Geno is still obscure as heck. Would he be worth it? Would he sell much aside from fans?

I also have reason to believe Nintendo has little interest in choosing Geno as a DLC character. Now, this may be different with Sakurai. Either way, Geno has his disadvantages, still.

I just wish my fellow Geno fans would realize this and see past Fatmanonice’s overhyping.

I would honestly love to hear the thoughts of some of them that are 100% sure geno is gonna be in smash and ask them if they really think that but I feel If I ask them, Imma get a "Yeah im sure look at all the "evidence" and the fact Sakurai talked about him"

I just want a completly honest answer thats not clouded by hype

 

[Cosmic77]

I don't see Rex & Pyra happening TBH.

Mainly because Xenoblade 2 a successful game already. The common link between the 1st party DLC newcomers(except Plant who was planned to be base game anyways and its not part of the FP) is that Nintendo clearly didn't think their games would sell without help from Smash. ARMS was forgotten in public eye before March compared to Xenoblade 2. So this seems like this was a way to breath new life into the game and help promote the sequel if there will be one. Whi

But I'm also optimistic about Lloyd now. With Heihachi basically disconfirmed(sorry to his fans). Of course there's still that dread his costume will return with a non Tales rep though. It seems like Sakurai still has issues implementing Tekken's gameplay into Smash. So if there's another fighting game rep, Sol Badguy is the front runner here.

But that said though, it's about time for a new balance patch. With all this time between Byleth and Min Min( with no 7.1.0 unlike with 3.1.0 with Joker to Hero), the changes could be major ones.

ARMS was already a success for a new IP and the previous two FE games sold pretty well.

Honestly, I think Rex would fit right in with Min Min and Byleth. I don't think there's as much of a reason to promote XC2 like the other two, but he's still fairly new. Plus, adding him in Smash would help maintain intrest in the series.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

The thing about Rex is that...

XC:DE was unveiled after the pass was decided right?

Wouldn't it have no affect then?

 

[SirBillyBob]

It does make me laugh that Smash Bros. Ultimate is going to end up with the highest amount of newcomers in series history (23) and during E3 2018, Sakurai told us not to expect too many new characters. pic.twitter.com/LtiMxoGTmC

— Stealth (@Stealth40k) June 23, 2020

I do find it interesting that this is the case, even if you might not personally count echos.

 

[CannonStreak]

I would honestly love to hear the thoughts of some of them that are 100% sure geno is gonna be in smash and ask them if they really think that but I feel If I ask them, Imma get a "Yeah im sure look at all the "evidence" and the fact Sakurai talked about him"

I just want a completly honest answer thats not clouded by hype

With the counter points already made on this topic, is that really evidence to begin with? Even by a little?

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I do find it interesting that this is the case, even if you might not personally count echos.

Keep in mind he meant "not a lot of newcomers" within the base game itself in context.

So it still holds true.

 

[ChunkySlugger72]

Oh, sorry about that! Lemme check.

Apparently the talks have stalled. No news since April, so it appears that LeYou's (and Warframe's) price is the issue, and the coronavirus has apparently affected negotiations. They do appear to still be committed, but I'm not sure if SNK will be at all affected if LeYou's bought out (since it's Orient Securities and 37 Games who are the primary owners and SNK's never been mentioned in articles about this AFAIK).



I could honestly see 2 Western characters, and albeit it's difficult to guess who my primary reason is the Mii Costumes' inclusion (especially Vault Boy) shows that the language barrier isn't as much of an issue as Sakurai previously believed. Of course, it's still an issue, but not to massive extents.

I hope your right, Makes it even more weird now that Bethesda is now involved, Maybe Doom Guy (Still iffy on him) or some other character from their stable is also seems possible now.

But yeah if we can get 2 more western characters in this pass, My choice would be Crash Bandicoot and Master Chief so it can feel like we have the mascot of pretty much almost every major company including both Sony Playstation and Microsoft Xbox.

Side Note: I know Crash Bandicoot is owned by Activision, But he's pretty much the "Unofficial" mascot of the original Playstation that is considered fair game. So you get the idea.

 

[RouffWestie]

My dream is for August to come, a Nintendo Mini Direct arrives, reminding everyone of a bunch of upcoming releases.
Then it ends on this and I explode

 

[JamesDNaux]

Apparently talking about Rayman is considered spam on this forum. And I was wondering why I stopped coming here, peace!

 

[SirBillyBob]

Keep in mind he meant "not a lot of newcomers" within the base game itself in context.

So it still holds true.

I know, I was referring to the fact that in general, Ultimate would have the most newcomers.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Personally, I wouldn’s say he is that much in an incredible disadvantage, but still an incredible disadvantage, nonetheless. These fans are gullible for anything, if you ask me.

Another question is profitability. Sure, there is demand for him, but Geno is still obscure as heck. Would he be worth it? Would he sell much aside from fans?

I also have reason to believe Nintendo has little interest in choosing Geno as a DLC character. Now, this may be different with Sakurai. Either way, Geno has his disadvantages, still.

I just wish my fellow Geno fans would realize this and see past Fatmanonice’s overhyping.

No one is following Fatman's word for 100%, a lot of us just think it's plausible. People were even arguing with him about stuff just earlier today. And at least a few stuff he's said has been right.

It shouldn't be his fault if people actually do 100% follow what he says word-for-word, overhype themselves and then get mad if something doesn't happen or Geno doesn't get in. It's their fault for not controlling their emotions and pretending everything Fatman has said is fact when he's even acknowledged most of what he says is his own speculation and theorizing, with what he does say that's more than just speculation potentially being wrong. If people actually read what he and others say then maybe they'd stop being mad at him and stop pretending he's some crazed Geno cult leader while everyone responding to him and respecting him being some lunatic fans.

And there's nothing wrong with people having faith in his theories, or their own theories, or anyone else's theories anyway, as long as they don't take it so seriously they get angry. The theories are even based on logical stuff from what I've read, even if a few points like a few from the stuff earlier today tend to fall short.

 

[SirBillyBob]

Apparently talking about Rayman is considered spam on this forum. And I was wondering why I stopped coming here, peace!

Nah, it's just that you only posted Rayman with no context, not even any thoughts about him in this current speculation period.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I know, I was referring to the fact that in general, Ultimate would have the most newcomers.

Seeing as how you can play Master Hand in WoL, it technically has 24 new playable characters. And unlike Giga Bowser in Brawl and 4, he's treated like a proper option. I do hope we get a mode to play as him later on. I find it annoying you get effectively one chance to use him. We have the revisions of All-Star Mode. Why not just make it an option for that one?

 

[SKX31]

So was ARMS. Just because people went "dead game lel" doesn't mean it didn't sell 2 million. They wouldn't even add Springtron and presumably Dr. Coyle if they didn't think it was a hit.

It did sell 2 million, yes, but Nintendo was also really inconsistent with official support (between NoJ and NoA specifically). I'll still call Nintendo out for that since they didn't hold official ARMS events / tournaments between early / mid 2018 and March 2020 (when FP6 was first announced to be ARMS).

If a fighting game is poised to be an officially sponsored game, then why drop ARMS Japan Grand Prix last year and not continue to support the competitive community otherwise? Yeah, I get that Nintendo devs often see released games as "done deals"... but they've continously supported Splatoon with official tournaments etc. so I'm not really getting why ARMS was dropped for 2 years.

The only real reason I can think of is that enough of the 2 million moved on from ARMS for Nintendo to say "Okay, we need a bit of a reboot", but it presents another problem.

 

[RouffWestie]

Apparently talking about Rayman is considered spam on this forum. And I was wondering why I stopped coming here, peace!

Rayman Bad

-This post was made by Andre Gang

 

[SNEKeater]

Too many pages, too many pages


Yeah, I'm aware of that, even alluded to it in this post. I'm just using the moment to create some awareness for these two characters because, honestly, sometimes I feel like most people here know nothing about Tekken and only constantly namedrop heihachi without acknowledging two characters who are just as important to Tekken - the OG protagonist turned villain Kazuya Mishima, and the "new" and longest running protagonist Jin Kazama - because Sakurai mentioned him half a decade ago. With recent crossovers (like the one with KOF) showing more focus on other characters, I think we should at least entertain the possibility of the Tekken rep in Smash being someone other than heihachi, especially Jin.

I agree with you. As I said I'm more of a Jin guy, but I also don't blame people at all for mostly thinking of Heihachi when it comes to a Tekken character. Sakurai considered Heihachi back then, so I guess it's normal for folks to think of him as our Tekken rep.

I also like Heihachi, to clarify. I'd be happy with him. I also think that having Jin or Kazuya wouldn't instead of Heihachi wouldn't be super strange, but I'm not really confident on their chances. I'd assume Heihachi's costume would return with Jin or Kazuya's challenger pack.

 

[SirBillyBob]

Seeing as how you can play Master Hand in WoL, it technically has 24 new playable characters. And unlike Giga Bowser in Brawl and 4, he's treated like a proper option. I do hope we get a mode to play as him later on. I find it annoying you get effectively one chance to use him. We have the revisions of All-Star Mode. Why not just make it an option for that one?

Speaking of All-Star mode, they totally butchered it. No continuous battles, no resting area, no new theme. Completely ruined.

 

[CannonStreak]

No one is following Fatman's word for 100%, a lot of us just think it's plausible. People were even arguing with him about stuff just earlier today. And some stuff he's said has been right.

It shouldn't be his fault if people actually do 100% follow what he says word-for-word, overhype themselves and then get mad if something doesn't happen or Geno doesn't get in. It's their fault for not controlling their emotions and pretending everything Fatman has said is fact when he's even acknowledged most of what he says is his own speculation and theorizing, with what he does say that's more than just speculation potentially being wrong.

It may be those people’s fault in that case, but they aren’t responsible for everything here. Not every factor. Theorizing or not, Fatman is still responsible for bringing his theories up, which, in turn, can and does lead to overhyping and misleading people. He may not have told them what to do, but he is still an influence, like how people do things role models do. Like, that is. And people are believing him. You can’t just have one thing without the other. Fatman is only right on some things, and even if you think it is plausible, you should still hype responsibly, regardless of what he says or how credible what he says sound.

 

[cosmicB]

Why would Microsoft want to have a character in Smash and it not be one of their major icons, but a rather small character from a game released 20 years ago?
Granted, Banjo and Geno are not really the same scope, but I would not think that specifically would stop Geno from being a character in Ultimate. Especially considering Square already has 2 major iconic characters in the game already, too.

Banjo has a profound relationship with Nintendo, representing an iconic time period during its transition from 2D to 3D. It's more than just a "fan pick", it's a legacy pick that its parent company isn't doing anything with. The only similarity between him and Geno is parental company abandonment. His legacy is a single game, a cameo that was later removed, a mii costume in Smash 4, and a forgettable spirit battle. They're really not comparable.

Now why would MS push that over evergreen promo characters like Steve or Master Chief? Who knows. We don't actually know how that meeting went down. For all we know, they could've just been easier to get than MC or Steve because of digging up old contacts with Rare people rather than needing to get people like 343 or Mojang involved.

That barrier doesn't exist with Square Enix, or at least their Japanese properties. Sakurai is friends with both Nomura and Yoko Taro. To my knoweldge, he doesn't have a personal relationship with anyone that could push Geno, so it would have to come down to him pushing them for it. That's all going to be determined by how much he ACTUALLY cares and isn't about just paying lip service.

 

[Icedragonadam]

I'm hoping with the final character in Ultimate, a True All-Star mode gets added as a send off before the rebooted roster. Because the current one isn't really an all star mode at all.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Speaking of All-Star mode, they totally butchered it. No continuous battles, no resting area, no new theme. Completely ruined.

It's the first All-Star Battle that honestly felt completely bad to me. Brawl's was overly long, but it was tolerable. 4's was also way too long, with few rest periods. But again, tolerable.

Melee did it best. It only got worse in each new iteration. Making it basically 100-Man Smash is even worse than how 4 handled it. ._. And that's saying something. Despite 4 being bad about it, it still resembled the original.

Though at least not all mini-games were completely bad. Angry Birds actually was done as a nice revision of Break the Targets. Knowing the exact damage output and angle of each time you hit the bomb makes it easier to get your character down. That's the whole point behind Break the Targets anyway, at least when done well. Only Brawl's were bad, and that's because it didn't matter who you picked. They barely got any proper training or how to handle the character. The reason why Target Blast!! still worked is because where each thing is is completely random, and you get prizes a huge chunk of the time(Trophies, Customs), so it's not a waste of training. It wasn't as good as 64/Melee's regardless, but still a massive improvement from Brawl's.

Though Brawl's worst bit is the ridiculously long Classic with only two Mini-games, and they're just the generic Target Smash. If they had added Grab the Trophies in the middle, and a new version of Race to the Finish, it'd be a lot more fun. It's a slog to go through. I honestly found Wii U Classic far more enjoyable because the battles got crazy and changed up enough to feel like it's randomized. If you aren't going to have a lot of mini-game choices, might as well randomize it way better.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I don't see Rex & Pyra happening TBH.

Mainly because Xenoblade 2 a successful game already. The common link between the 1st party DLC newcomers(except Plant who was planned to be base game anyways and its not part of the FP) is that Nintendo clearly didn't think their games would sell without help from Smash. ARMS was forgotten in public eye before March compared to Xenoblade 2. So this seems like this was a way to breath new life into the game and help promote the sequel if there will be one. Whi

But I'm also optimistic about Lloyd now. With Heihachi basically disconfirmed(sorry to his fans). Of course there's still that dread his costume will return with a non Tales rep though. It seems like Sakurai still has issues implementing Tekken's gameplay into Smash. So if there's another fighting game rep, Sol Badguy is the front runner here.

But that said though, it's about time for a new balance patch. With all this time between Byleth and Min Min( with no 7.1.0 unlike with 3.1.0 with Joker to Hero), the changes could be major ones.

meanwhile, X didn't get to take off because of the Wii U. maybe a Switch remaster would breathe new life into it - and maybe boost Elma's chances

 

[Shroob]

ARMS was already a success for a new IP and the previous two FE games sold pretty well.

Honestly, I think Rex would fit right in with Min Min and Byleth. I don't think there's as much of a reason to promote XC2 like the other two, but he's still fairly new. Plus, adding him in Smash would help maintain intrest in the series.

Honestly though, between the two, I find Gen 8 more likely.

It's not a "One or the other" kind of deal, but I'd more likely put money on Gen 8 than Rex if I were to bet on it.

 

[PK-remling Fire]

The thing about Geno is that over this past year two big roadblocks have been lifted for him, with both "long dead characters" and spirits being added to the game. The problem is, neither of those things can be classified explicitly as evidence toward Geno, just things that happen to apply to him. As far as evidence toward him, there is none (if you don't count cacomallow, which is undoubtedly fake).

The way I see it a lot of the hardcore Geno fans believe that he is a super popular character and the only reason he isn't in smash is because the "rules" don't allow him to be in. That's why I feel a vocal minority of them are treating him as a lock nowadays, as a lot of the "rules" against Geno have been broken and by their logic he should have no reason to not be in the game.

Do I think his chances are at 0%? Of course not. Hell, his chances are better than they were when the game came out. But the difference between rules being broken that coincide with your character and actually having evidence towards a character is a big one, and not being able to tell the difference can get people burned.

 

[cosmicB]

It shouldn't be his fault if people actually do 100% follow what he says word-for-word, overhype themselves and then get mad if something doesn't happen or Geno doesn't get in. It's their fault for not controlling their emotions and pretending everything Fatman has said is fact when he's even acknowledged most of what he says is his own speculation and theorizing, with what he does say that's more than just speculation potentially being wrong. If people actually read what he and others say then maybe they'd stop being mad at him and stop pretending he's some crazed Geno cult leader while everyone responding to him and respecting him being some lunatic fans.

The thing is Fatman is undoubtedly an insider. The only active one on this site in fact (at least openly and in the speculation topics). People are going to take his word on stuff because he DOES know things. He's even spread those things around to fellow Geno fans by his own admission. His "I'm just a speculator" shtick doesn't work when he has access to information that others don't and that's going to give him a veil of legitimacy even if he does end up just falling for a ton of leakbait.

So yeah, I hope if he ends up being wrong, people don't end up taking it out on him, but I can't imagine some sort of resentment not forming, at least among newer people that are looking for any thing they can "confirming" Geno to latch onto.

 

[N3ON]

Personally, I wouldn’s say he is that much in an incredible disadvantage, but still an incredible disadvantage, nonetheless. These fans are gullible for anything, if you ask me.

I just wish my fellow Geno fans would realize this and see past Fatmanonice’s overhyping.

Many people will more readily believe things they want to believe, and some people take advantage of that. That's a big problem in the Geno thread. It's not exclusive to that thread, but the more people all pushing for the same thing, the more mob mentality can take effect.

And what I mean by incredible disadvantage is that most of Geno's qualities run antithetical to what Smash seeks. His game is old, Smash tends to focus on newer releases. He's from a spin-off, Smash tends to focus on the mainline titles. He's a supporting character, those typically get lesser treatment than the lead. He's had one (substantial) appearance, but in series with static casts, those that show up more frequently stand in a better stead. And he's third-party. It'd be hard enough to get a first-party character with all those hindrances, but not being owned by Nintendo adds all kinds of complications.

And I know that Geno fans will try to rebuke these drawbacks by isolating each point and providing an individual counterexample, but that's missing the point that all these hindrances apply to a single character, not the several it takes to provide counterpoints. That's what I mean by incredible disadvantage, he has quite a bit working against him just based on who he is.

Another question is profitability. Sure, there is demand for him, but Geno is still obscure as heck. Would he be worth it? Would he sell much aside from fans?

I also have reason to believe Nintendo has little interest in choosing Geno as a DLC character. Now, this may be different with Sakurai. Either way, Geno has his disadvantages, still.

These are also salient points, ones that more revolve around issues being a third-party.

Within the confines of the online fanbase, Geno is a big player, but once you widen those confines, the opposite is the case. And the DLC exists to cater to more than just us. To that end, it's a very valid point that with the limited number of third-parties, would they want one to be a character with such a narrow visibility? It's not Sakurai calling the shots after all, it's Nintendo. Their agendas are not the same.

I mean, people used to believe that once Square got on board, we'd get Geno. But we got Cloud. Then they believed Geno would be next. But we got Hero. Now they again believe Geno to be next, but it's not like Square is anywhere close to hurting for bigger remaining options.

Now this all seems like I'm coming down super hard on Geno, and I get that. But really all I'm trying to say is that the picture painted of him within the Geno thread is certainly done with bias in hand, and I'm offering the less-touched-upon angles which challenge the belief of inevitability. I don't think he's some no-hoper, I do think he's possible. I think he's got a better shot than some characters raised. There are things to be said for his popularity. But they've already been said to death, and I think people get the wrong idea just because of that popularity, failing to consider the huge deficit a character in his position simply starts from.