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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Icedragonadam

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Rating passes again? Okay here's my Pass:

1. Max Brass(ARMS)
2. Lloyd Irving/Velvet Crowe(Tales)
3. Sol Badguy(Guilty Gear)
4. Ryu Hayabusa(Ninja Gaiden)
5. Reimu Hakurei(Touhou)
6. Porky Minch(Earthbound)
 

pupNapoleon

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Unfortunately the series seems to have died, so I wouldn't bet on it.
Verde Coeden Scalesworth Verde Coeden Scalesworth

I really feel Nintendo missed the opportunity with Rhythm Heaven.
1-2 switch should have been Rhythm Heaven.
To introduce the Switch- and it should have come prepackaged.

I wish I lived in that alternate timeline.
(or at least that I didnt buy 1-2 Switch before playing it).
 

pupNapoleon

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Rating passes again? Okay here's my Pass:

1. Max Brass(ARMS)
2. Lloyd Irving/Velvet Crowe(Tales)
3. Sol Badguy(Guilty Gear)
4. Ryu Hayabusa(Ninja Gaiden)
5. Reimu Hakurei(Touhou)
6. Porky Minch(Earthbound)
Honestly... this pass would be exciting in that I'd be introduced to so many new characters that I mostly only know from obscure speculation.
But mostly, I'd think Nintendo made a ridiculously poor decision, catering singularly to the Japanese market, and dooming themselves from making a profit with characters who are so poorly known all across the board.
More than anything, I'd be baffled by the marketing decision.
 
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Garteam

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what copypasta those were my honest thoughts about coronavirus

i hate that coronavirus has taken away our nintendo directs and i hope it goes away so that i can consume nintendo advertising for 20-40 minutes and then go back to my miserable existence and wait until it happens again 2-4 months later

how do i find the ceo of coronavirus i just wanna talk outback behind the taco bell itll be quick
if the ceo of coronavirus doesnt show up for 15 minutes were legally immune to the virus
 

Sc_Ev0lution

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I'm not sure if it's because I think the topic is talked to death, but I honestly have trouble thinking who is even likely anymore. Maybe that's what happens when speculation chugs along for two years at full steam. Or maybe I can't see past my own biases.

I think many of the characters often talked about are more likely but not guaranteed. I think third parties are more likely, because of a greater reach of notable characters and potential for hype. I think companies are unlikely to have more than one character a pass, less because of fairness and more because of variety. I think spirit promotions are unlikely, because they were spirits for a reason, but it isn't impossible I guess; I will take assist trophies off the table though, I don't think it's gonna happen. And while I think newer characters are possible, I think established ones will be favored.

Ultimately, I think that predicting characters is challenging at the best of times, but now it's more difficult than ever. But hey, if we didn't find it fun we wouldn't be here.

I tried to put together a pass that is somewhat predictive and hopefully not too biased. If you're curious about my wants, it's in the signature.

1. Dr. Coyle (ARMS)
2. Reimu Hakurei (Touhou)
3. Ryu Hyabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
4. Dante (Devil May Cry)
5. Heihachi (Tekken)
6. Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes)
 

Ridrool64

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If I had to guess when Challenger Pack 6 is coming, I'm thinking mid-late June to the start/first week of July. Smash, Pokémon and Animal Crossing are gonna hard carry Nintendo through these trying times, being the biggest releases of the year.

Challenger Pack 7 before 2021 is starting to feel like a pipe dream, though. In terms of release, at least. Reveal is possible, but I think Nintendo is gonna spread them out. And once the virus truly starts getting reduced in potency, we'll see it speed up significantly and it'll neatly wrap up by late 2021.

And my current guesses:

#6 will be an ARMS character with base game content. Spring Man, Min-Min, Twintelle, Ribbon Girl or Ninjara. If it's not one of them, Dr. Coyle or Max Brass free.
#7 will be Urshifu or Calyrex. I see no reason for Nintendo not to pick a soon-to-be prominent Pokémon from what's going to likely end up as their biggest (or second biggest) release.
#8 will be a more neutral third party. Somebody like Ryu Hayabusa or Bill Rizer: not necessarily currently big, but somebody who is very important to gaming in some way, shape or form. Kinda like Terry Bogard, think of it like a "thank you gift" for good current relations with Nintendo or bouncing back into the gaming industry.
#9 will be a major Japan hype third party. This is why Arle wins, but Reimu could go here. Or a Tales rep. If I didn't mention a Japanese third party character (think Dante, Heihachi, Sora), they could take the place of #8 or #9.
#10 will be a widely celebrated western third party. Crash Bandicoot, Master Chief, Steve, maybe even Scorpion if they wanna go off...
#11 will be another first party character, one with base game content as well. Waluigi, Bandana Waddle Dee, Tingle... something more low key than the previous ones. Could've been Tom Nook, but I think the ACNH Spirit Event took away his best Spirit material, and with it the best reason for his inclusion.

Let's say we get this set: Spring Man, Urshifu, Ryu Hayabusa, Arle Nadja, Scorpion (would put Crash here, but he's on every prediction list and I want to be different) and Waluigi, in the order from #76 to #81. Joining the trend, what would people think?
 

pupNapoleon

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1. Dr. Coyle (ARMS)
2. Reimu Hakurei (Touhou)
3. Ryu Hyabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
4. Dante (Devil May Cry)
5. Heihachi (Tekken)
6. Travis Touchdown (No More Heroes)
As the guy who likes the cartoony characters with incredibly unique silhouettes, I'd find this to be a pretty -meh- pass.
So I'd say it's a good possibility.

Let's say we get this set: Spring Man, Urshifu, Ryu Hayabusa, Arle Nadja, Scorpion (would put Crash here, but he's on every prediction list and I want to be different) and Waluigi, in the order from #76 to #81. Joining the trend, what would people think?
This would actually be pretty satisfying to me. I'd only have one character that is attached to my childhood- Scorpion- and ultimately I think that is what everyone wants the most (even if they can reason other characters make sense and are exciting).
 
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RileyXY1

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If I had to guess when Challenger Pack 6 is coming, I'm thinking mid-late June to the start/first week of July. Smash, Pokémon and Animal Crossing are gonna hard carry Nintendo through these trying times, being the biggest releases of the year.

Challenger Pack 7 before 2021 is starting to feel like a pipe dream, though. In terms of release, at least. Reveal is possible, but I think Nintendo is gonna spread them out. And once the virus truly starts getting reduced in potency, we'll see it speed up significantly and it'll neatly wrap up by late 2021.

And my current guesses:

#6 will be an ARMS character with base game content. Spring Man, Min-Min, Twintelle, Ribbon Girl or Ninjara. If it's not one of them, Dr. Coyle or Max Brass free.
#7 will be Urshifu or Calyrex. I see no reason for Nintendo not to pick a soon-to-be prominent Pokémon from what's going to likely end up as their biggest (or second biggest) release.
#8 will be a more neutral third party. Somebody like Ryu Hayabusa or Bill Rizer: not necessarily currently big, but somebody who is very important to gaming in some way, shape or form. Kinda like Terry Bogard, think of it like a "thank you gift" for good current relations with Nintendo or bouncing back into the gaming industry.
#9 will be a major Japan hype third party. This is why Arle wins, but Reimu could go here. Or a Tales rep. If I didn't mention a Japanese third party character (think Dante, Heihachi, Sora), they could take the place of #8 or #9.
#10 will be a widely celebrated western third party. Crash Bandicoot, Master Chief, Steve, maybe even Scorpion if they wanna go off...
#11 will be another first party character, one with base game content as well. Waluigi, Bandana Waddle Dee, Tingle... something more low key than the previous ones. Could've been Tom Nook, but I think the ACNH Spirit Event took away his best Spirit material, and with it the best reason for his inclusion.

Let's say we get this set: Spring Man, Urshifu, Ryu Hayabusa, Arle Nadja, Scorpion (would put Crash here, but he's on every prediction list and I want to be different) and Waluigi, in the order from #76 to #81. Joining the trend, what would people think?
I don't know how Arle can get in over Kiryu from the Yakuza franchise.
I don't think that Mortal Kombat is ever getting a character because the series is so unpopular in Japan that the series is completely non-existent there.
 

NintenZ

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Can someone try giving an argument for Reimu being chosen over other characters popular in Japan besides nondescrete bull**** such as “She’s really popular in Japan” or “She’d be fun” or “She’s neat!” with no evidence to back it up thinking it’ll automatically make their arguments bulletproof?

It’s honestly getting really annoying cause in the grand scheme of things she’s a small fish in a big pond in my eyes, and I say this as a person who likes her games.
 
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pupNapoleon

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I don't know how Arle can get in over Kiryu from the Yakuza franchise.
I don't think that Mortal Kombat is ever getting a character because the series is so unpopular in Japan that the series is completely non-existent there.
Mortal Kombat isnt sold, legally, in Japan. That doesnt make it unpopular. It can still be purchased- and the franchise, like Tomb Raider or Resident Evil, is an entire media franchise (and thusly why, at over 6billion in sales, is only second to Street Fighter in overall profit).

And... you cant see Arle getting in before a character from Yakuza? Can you elaborate on that? Other than being both- hyper Japanese culture- they are characters from completely different genres and art styles.
 
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CapitaineCrash

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Verde Coeden Scalesworth Verde Coeden Scalesworth

I really feel Nintendo missed the opportunity with Rhythm Heaven.
1-2 switch should have been Rhythm Heaven.
To introduce the Switch- and it should have come prepackaged.

I wish I lived in that alternate timeline.
(or at least that I didnt buy 1-2 Switch before playing it).
To be fair a family party game will sell way, way, way more than a Japanese style rhythm game.


I don't know how Arle can get in over Kiryu from the Yakuza franchise.
I don't think that Mortal Kombat is ever getting a character because the series is so unpopular in Japan that the series is completely non-existent there.
Puyo puyo have a way bigger history than Yakuza. Also I think Puyo puyo is as popular as Yakuza in Japan. I think both could happen and we shouldn't sleep on Puyo puyo Japan popularity.
 

RileyXY1

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Mortal Kombat isnt sold, legally, in Japan. That doesnt make it unpopular. It can still be purchased- and the franchise, like Tomb Raider or Resident Evil, is an entire media franchise (and thusly why, at over 6billion in sales, is only second to Street Fighter in overall profit).

And... you cant see Arle getting in before a character from Yakuza? Can you elaborate on that? Other than being both- hyper Japanese culture- they are characters from completely different genres and art styles.
Simple. Yakuza is more well known, and Kiryu has far greater moveset potential.
 

pupNapoleon

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To be fair a family party game will sell way, way, way more than a Japanese style rhythm game.



Puyo puyo have a way bigger history than Yakuza. Also I think Puyo puyo is as popular as Yakuza in Japan. I think both could happen and we shouldn't sleep on Puyo puyo Japan popularity.
A Japanese Rhythm Game can be a family party game. In fact, it is.

I don't think 1-2 Switch had an easy appeal to very many people. (Honestly live action people are really creepy in it- and it's also... maybe not a party game, given the explanations of the games last much longer than the games themselves... which kills any party). The sales are at 3 million, but how much of that is just that it was the first Nintendo Multiplayer party game (which, again, I'd argue Rhythm Heaven falls into, and could fit even more into if that were the intention).

Rhythm Heaven is also an investment in a franchise for Nintendo- meaning, the value of the sales of the game isnt all thats important, building the IP and the characters for future sales, especially of merch, is much more profitable long term. We all know Nintendo plays the long game.

Simple. Yakuza is more well known, and Kiryu has far greater moveset potential.
Bruh this is super suggestive

I’m not even gonna argue here you should already know what the problem is lol
Honestly- I see two big arguments.
1- IS Yakuza more well known? I know Yakuza sells quite well, but I thought Puyo Puyo ALSO sold well, with more titles, and more duration.
2- Moveset potential is only for the weak minded. Anyone can whistle.
 
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NonSpecificGuy

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We talking about Yakuza? Hell I just got into the series as I’m currently playing through 0 but you know what? Hell yeah, bring on Kiryu.

I’m not going to argue popularity because that’s always a slippery slope but if I had to guess just from what I’ve seen around I would guess Yakuza has at least larger international appeal which could be in its favor.

I mean I guess the fact that the game is called Yakuza and it being a rather mature series could hinder it but who knows?
 

Spongeboob

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Oh great, the ssaP yM etaR game. I already gave my predictions, but here's my wants. Like, dislike, whatever.
  • IDK Arms so I've got nothing for that
  • Dante (Devil May Cry series)
  • Quote (Cave Story)
  • Xurkitree (Pokemon series)
  • Sora (Kingdom Hearts series)
  • Crash Bandicoot (Crash series)
  • Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends With You)
  • Haohmaru gets upgraded from Spirit to actual fighter
  • Zero gets upgraded from AT to actual fighter
  • Rex/Pyra get upgraded from Spirit/Mii costume to actual fighter (I like anime swordies)
  • Ditto upgraded from Pokeball to actual fighter
  • Anyone who gets in has a Mii costume preceding them on the previous wave (example: Max Brass and Dante get in; Dante Mii costume released with Max Brass)
  • Spongebob gets in as a fighter for the Ultimate "heck" you
Also, I think the Goose from "Untitled Goose Game" is a bandwagon pick.
One million deaths from Coronavirus: "Meh."
Nintendo E3 Direct cancelled due to Coronavirus: "**** THIS VIRUS!!!! GET THAT VACCINE OUT!!!"
Times never change, do they?
Rex's Mii Costume kinda implied that he wouldn't be part of the first Fighter's Pass.
I think we're eventually going to get most of characters that were confirmed scrapped in the past.
Chorus Kids, Mach Rider, Heihachi, Takamaru, Tetra, and Rex.
Rex is a maybe IMO, but seeing as to why Heihachi was rejected, I'm not holding my breath for him. As for the rest of the scrapped characters, I'm doubtful.
Rating passes again? Okay here's my Pass:

1. Max Brass(ARMS)
2. Lloyd Irving/Velvet Crowe(Tales)
3. Sol Badguy(Guilty Gear)
4. Ryu Hayabusa(Ninja Gaiden)
5. Reimu Hakurei(Touhou)
6. Porky Minch(Earthbound)
If we get this pass, then Porky will be the Sol Badguy of the Fighters Pass.
Sounds nice.
Let's say we get this set: Spring Man, Urshifu, Ryu Hayabusa, Arle Nadja, Scorpion (would put Crash here, but he's on every prediction list and I want to be different) and Waluigi, in the order from #76 to #81. Joining the trend, what would people think?
Sounds unlikely but I'd be cool with it. I like Arle and Scorpion but dislike Waluigi. I'm neutral towards the rest.
 

RileyXY1

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We talking about Yakuza? Hell I just got into the series as I’m currently playing through 0 but you know what? Hell yeah, bring on Kiryu.

I’m not going to argue popularity because that’s always a slippery slope but if I had to guess just from what I’ve seen around I would guess Yakuza has at least larger international appeal which could be in its favor.

I mean I guess the fact that the game is called Yakuza and it being a rather mature series could hinder it but who knows?
It's actually only called Yakuza internationally. It's called something else in Japan, but I can't remember what.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Can someone try giving an argument for Reimu being chosen over other characters popular in Japan besides nondescrete bull**** such as “She’s really popular in Japan” or “She’d be fun” or “She’s neat!” with no evidence to back it up thinking it’ll automatically make their arguments bulletproof?

It’s honestly getting really annoying cause in the grand scheme of things she’s a small fish in a big pond in my eyes, and I say this as a person who likes her games.
You want an argument for why she's likely? She isn't.
You want an argument for why she should be added? "She's neat!" will suffice; It wasn't a question that required an objective answer.

EDIT: I'd bet Reimu fans are more often trying to argue why she's even possible rather than whether or not she's likely.

...Kiryu has far greater moveset potential.
I'm kinda getting tired of the moveset potential argument. Nearly every character has moveset potential, it's just that some are easier to visualize than others.

Heck, we've got a character who's "moveset potential" was literally just driving a vehicle, and you only ever saw the back of his head.
 
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NonSpecificGuy

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It's actually only called Yakuza internationally. It's called something else in Japan, but I can't remember what.
Like a Dragon. I know. But that may or may not cause problems with Nintendo marketing you never know.
 

NintenZ

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You want an argument for why she's likely? She isn't.
You want an argument for why she should be added? "She's neat!" will suffice; It wasn't a question that required an objective answer.
If you’re gonna pitch me something pitch it right or else I ain’t sold.

It’s like selling a house, if I don’t know anything about it I can’t form an opinion of my own and I won’t be inclined to purchase it.

However if you want it then that’s completely fine and I have no interest in changing your opinion on that, but if you’re gonna try and convince me being vague and deceptive isn’t smart. (Though not saying you’re any of this this is really just a general statement)
 
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RileyXY1

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I think that this pass will be all Japanese characters. So, no Scorpion, no Doomguy, etc.
 
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osby

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Simple. Yakuza is more well known, and Kiryu has far greater moveset potential.
I don't think any third party was chosen because of their moveset potential.

Also, I'm gonna need a citation on the first one. Puyo Puyo sold over 27 million copies. I love Yakuza and it's definitely getting bigger but with only around 12 million copies sold, it seems unlikely that Kiryu is more well-known.
 

RileyXY1

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I don't think any third party was chosen because of their moveset potential.

Also, I'm gonna need a citation on the first one. Puyo Puyo sold over 27 million copies. I love Yakuza and it's definitely getting bigger but with only around 12 million copies sold, it seems unlikely that Kiryu is more well-known.
It's more so because Yakuza has far greater recognition outside of Japan.
 

pupNapoleon

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I think that this pass will also solely appeal to what's popular in Japan. So, no Scorpion, no Doomguy, etc.
Do you mean to say only characters that are popular in Japan, or characters that appeal only to Japan?

I'd like to think the former is all that you could mean, because the latter doesnt make a shred of sense.
But either way, I'm also curious as to the why.
 

osby

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I think that this pass will also solely appeal to what's popular in Japan. So, no Scorpion, no Doomguy, etc.
I'd like to hear what makes you think that.

We got Terry and Banjo in the first pass and they're both more popular outside of Japan. Also, both Three Houses and Persona 5 were pretty successful in the West. We even got :ulthero2: because of Western popularity.
 

RileyXY1

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Do you mean to say only characters that are popular in Japan, or characters that appeal only to Japan?

I'd like to think the former is all that you could mean, because the latter doesnt make a shred of sense.
But either way, I'm also curious as to the why.
Mostly because that's how Smash operates. The only Western character we got on because of fan demand and Microsoft's budding relationship with Nintendo.
 

♕Pretty Roger♕

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Simple. Yakuza is more well known, and Kiryu has far greater moveset potential.
Is it more well know in your house? Do you lack imagination to create a moveset for a magical girl and blobs with faces? I don't see how that makes Arle less likely, even if you want to compare the success of a Japanesse company to its series sells outside their home country, popularity is not everything, so been more well known isn't exactly groundbreaking when there is not a really big gap between franchises, even if that were the case we cannot even know for sure if she is less recognizable overall. I honestly i am at a lost with the moveset potential comment, you could have at least elaborated why you consider Kiryu has more potential instead of just mentioning it.

Arle obviously has Puyo at her disposal which could make an interesting chain mechanic or the most straight answer would be to base her attacks on her magical spells.

Also Puyo Puyo has been one of the best sold eshop titles for switch since its release, so its not like no one knows Puyo, even the Sonic series throws a lot of callbacks to it.
 
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I don't think any third party was chosen because of their moveset potential.

Also, I'm gonna need a citation on the first one. Puyo Puyo sold over 27 million copies. I love Yakuza and it's definitely getting bigger but with only around 12 million copies sold, it seems unlikely that Kiryu is more well-known.
Oh ****. The fact that Yakuza has practically doubled or more the entire franchises sales in the past 5 years is a shock to me, actually.
 

RileyXY1

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Also, I thought that I once heard Sakurai describe Smash as a celebration of Japanese gaming.
 

osby

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Oh ****. The fact that Yakuza has practically doubled or more the entire franchises sales in the past 5 years is a shock to me, actually.
Actually I was talking about Yakuza as an entire franchise.

First Yakuza only sold over a million copies iirc.
 

NonSpecificGuy

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Mostly because that's how Smash operates. The only Western character we got on because of fan demand and Microsoft's budding relationship with Nintendo.
Ridley and Little Mac are virtually unknown in Japan. Pretty sure being western will have no impact on how Nintendo, not Sakurai, will choose the characters. Sometimes it just comes down to business whether we love the character or hate them.
Actually I was talking about Yakuza as an entire franchise.

First Yakuza only sold over a million copies iirc.
That’s what I was talking about too?

Edit: It went from 7 Million to 12 million in the last 5 years. Accounted in June of 2019 I believe.
 
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RileyXY1

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Ridley and Little Mac are virtually unknown in Japan. Pretty sure being western will have no impact on how Nintendo, not Sakurai, will choose the characters. Sometimes it just comes down to business whether we love the character or hate them.
Both characters were created by a Japanese company, so I don't count them.
 

Sc_Ev0lution

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As the guy who likes the cartoony characters with incredibly unique silhouettes, I'd find this to be a pretty -meh- pass.
So I'd say it's a good possibility.
I can totally understand this criticism; especially Ryu and Travis with their swords, though obviously still distinct, in silhouette can seem similar. Unfortunately, I happen to think most commonly talked about caroony/antropomorphic characters are unlikely for one reason or another.
And c'mon, Reimu's a little cartoony...

Reimu Sass.png

Can someone try giving an argument for Reimu being chosen over other characters popular in Japan besides nondescrete bull**** such as “She’s really popular in Japan” or “She’d be fun” or “She’s neat!” with no evidence to back it up thinking it’ll automatically make their arguments bulletproof?

It’s honestly getting really annoying cause in the grand scheme of things she’s a small fish in a big pond in my eyes, and I say this as a person who likes her games.
I will fully admit my own bias on that one. I do consider her within the realm of possibilities, if maybe a long shot. I don't think Touhou's popularity should be dismissed out of hand, though it isn't unparalleled nor is it all she needed to get into Smash. I do think Touhou does have a spot in gaming history as an exemplar shooter/bullet hell, even if its path hasn't crossed Nintendo's often.

The one positive I can offer without caveat is the ease of acquisition. Obviously, if Nintendo approached any company asking for a character, they will more than likely say yes. What makes Reimu appealing is that rather that dealing with a company, Nintendo only has to negotiate with ZUN which cuts down on the hassle considerably. And unlike most other devs of popular indies, there's no language barrier.

If deciding a Smash character were strictly a numbers game, I would have given up on Reimu a long time ago. Thankfully, this isn't the case. We'll see though, I guess.
 
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