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This is one of the most plausible outcomes, imo.
I can't imagine this pass comes and goes without at least one fan-favourite. And with Square seemingly willing to play ball and the lack of some of the past costumes, it seems possible.
However, people really like to read into those two videos being flagged. But if that were truly meaningful, the same would've been done on other channels that host those tracks. However, it's exceedingly easy to still find them with a simple search on Youtube. Moreover, that channel had a history of Nintendo flagging one or two pieces so as to notify the uploader to remove the entire playlist. They said as much.
That theory really doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
Well, you gotta keep in mind that Nintendo has never included a third-party for promotional reasons. They barely include first-parties for promotional reasons. People might invoke Hero, but the promotional aspect of that character was likely a stipulation from SE due to the serendipitous timing of DQ11's Switch release. Because obviously the Hero is not a character that needs to bank on promotion to be included.
So leaning on something that doesn't have precedent really on makes it, at best, possible. I mean, for years people have ascribed a third-party showing up in a recent game to an inevitable Smash inclusion, and that's never really panned out. Just for Ultimate people were saying it about Crash, Doom Slayer, Amaterasu, Rabbids, Dovahkiin, Neku, Solaire, Tracer, and any other number of characters.
The biggest point Travis does have is that Suda seems pretty persistent in trying to get him in. Now that we're getting third-parties around his level, Sakurai might relent. Though worth noting is that Suda's desire for Travis in Smash was never spurred by the fanbase. If anything, his persistence re-galvanized fans of Travis, considering the character has never had top-tier popularity or anything.
All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if Travis showed up, but I think a lot of the signs people are reading in favour of Travis aren't actually that important. I think they're overrating his likelihood a bit.
ARMS and Rex are only related because Sakurai would've included them had timing been different. But now Sakurai isn't calling the shots. We aren't getting an ARMS rep because Sakurai now is able to go back and accommodate characters he lacked time for previously. We're getting ARMS because Nintendo chose ARMS. What Sakurai wants seemingly isn't a factor here.
And not only is Nintendo not promoting Xenoblade 2 right now, but they're actively promoting a different Xenoblade game. The path that ARMS is taking seems unavailable to a character like Rex. The relation the two have is only pertinent if Sakurai is helming things. And even then, it's not like one truly informs the other.
It's possible. You make solid points in Rayman's favour; the two companies do a good working relationship. And Rayman would presumably be the go-to character for Ubisoft. Lord knows they're on board with it.
But you also have to consider that, were we to get Rayman, it seems quite strange and potentially damning that not only would costumes from his company arrive in a different wave, but a character from
his own series does as well. The pieces don't quite fit.
I mean, Ubisoft probably wouldn't get the Capcom treatment whereby they have so many costumes you'd break it up across multiple waves. Most people see the Ubi costumes as a point in favour of Rayman, but I see it as the opposite.
Yup.
Though I wouldn't place that much importance on the typing trifecta since that's never really seemed to be that pertinent to informing inclusions. And frankly I'd just completely disregard Toxitricity since the main thing his expectation stems around seems to be above-average popularity, which hasn't mattered for Pokemon for a long, long, long time. Especially since the choice would've probably been made last year before we even knew about the character.
I know it seems like I came down hard on your choices, but I actually think most of them are entirely plausible additions. Overall it's definitely more realistic than other potential passes I've seen. It's mostly just some of the reasoning I think is a little off-base rather than the selections themselves.
Having said that, we as a community are usually super terrible at correctly predicting DLC, so if the only character you got right was the ARMS one, that also wouldn't surprise me. I guess that's part of the fun.