Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Michael the Spikester]

Now that I think about it. I feel its gonna be Twintelle.

Remember how()and()had glitches regarding Training Mode meaning they were worked as an base for said DLC characters. The same had happened withwho was the spirit for Twintelle.

Plus factor in Twintelle's popularity out of the ARMS reps. This in turn will also kill the spirit deconfirmation rule and protagonist first rule for that matter, talk about killing two birds with one stone.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Hmm, was this mentioned? not sure

There was a problem fetching the tweet

EDIT: Thats Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Mechanica, and Master Mummy as the only Icons being shown...

maybe the others are hidden?

 

[Dinoman96]

Now that I think about it. I feel its gonna be Twintelle.

Remember how()and()had glitches regarding Training Mode meaning they were worked as an base for said DLC characters. The same had happened withwho was the spirit for Twintelle.

Plus factor in Twintelle's popularity out of the ARMS reps. This is turn will also kill the Spirit deconfirmation rule and protagonist first rule for that matter, talk about killing two birds with one stone.

That theory is bunk because as it turns out, Ridley was actually used as a base for Banjo.

And it makes sense, considering how similar a few of their moves are (Down Smash, Up Air, Forward Tilt, etc)

 

[SneakyLink]

Now that I think about it. I feel its gonna be Twintelle.

Remember how()and()had glitches regarding Training Mode meaning they were worked as an base for said DLC characters. The same had happened withwho was the spirit for Twintelle.

Plus factor in Twintelle's popularity out of the ARMS reps. This is turn will also kill the spirit deconfirmation rule and protagonist first rule for that matter, talk about killing two birds with one stone.

Except used as a base so the glitches regarding likely meant nothing long term.

 

[Ivander]

Hmm, was this mentioned? not sure

There was a problem fetching the tweet

EDIT: Thats Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Mechanica, and Master Mummy as the only Icons being shown...

I see five icons. If 4 of them are those 4, the 5th Icon looks like a ninja star.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

EDIT: Thats Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Mechanica, and Master Mummy as the only Icons being shown...

Also Ninjara. Consideing the wide array of body types in this spread, I'd say it means nothing.
EDIT: It's probably a pre-existing background.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

That theory is bunk because as it turns out, Ridley was actually used as a base for Banjo.

And it makes sense, considering how similar a few of their moves are (Down Smash, Up Air, Forward Tilt, etc)

Except used as a base so the glitches regarding likely meant nothing long term.

Still going out to say its Twintelle given said popularity as most popular ARMS character and the Bayonetta glitch/Twintelle spirit.

 

[Cosmic77]

Hmm, was this mentioned? not sure

There was a problem fetching the tweet

EDIT: Thats Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Mechanica, and Master Mummy as the only Icons being shown...

Those are the first five characters revealed for ARMS (Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Mechanica, and Master Mummy).

Doubt it means anything.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Still going out to say its Twintelle given said popularity as most popular ARMS character and the Bayonetta glitch/Twintelle spirit.

People literally just said the Bayonetta glitch can't be used as evidence as the theory it uses was debunked, do you just not read what people say to you? Also, from what I can gather, Minmin's the most popular one as seen in game, and what the hell would that glitch even mean? Wasn't it about Bayo's uniform, which transforms? Twintelle has nothing like that and Witch Time has become a more standardized status as seen with the Timer, Shadow and Hocus Pocus showing that purple circle effect

 

[Trevenant]

Reason people assumes this though is given Spring Man being an assist and Ribbon Girl and Mii costume assuming they don't deconfirm which we probably won't know until June.

The only reason an assist would stop them from considering the character is if it was made after the character was considered and even after that they aren’t really related.

IMO most likely scenario is volume 2 was discussed during the first wave so any content in the base game wouldn’t really signify their mindset or much beyond that.

 

[zferolie]

Ok so it probably means nothing then. Just was curious.

 

[-crump-]

I’m veeery curious about when the choices for the second pass were finalized. If they were locked down after the final ARMS event, I think Min-Min really has the best chances overall. She was already popular, and now that Nintendo has evidence to back the claim that Min-Min is the most popular character from that series, it makes plenty of sense to include her as the rep for the series.
Honestly, she could even take over the mascot role when ARMS 2 comes around, if that actually happens. No one will cry for poor old Spring Man, probably.

(I haven’t even played ARMS so I have no horse in this race, just guessing based on the info I’ve seen.)

 

[NintenZ]

I’ll probably make a predictions roster later.

I have some ideas on who we could be seeing now that we know who the first character might be.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

People literally just said the Bayonetta glitch can't be used as evidence as the theory it uses was debunked, do you just not read what people say to you? Also, from what I can gather, Minmin's the most popular one as seen in game, and what the hell would that glitch even mean? Wasn't it about Bayo's uniform, which transforms? Twintelle has nothing like that and Witch Time has become a more standardized status as seen with the Timer, Shadow and Hocus Pocus showing that purple circle effect

For some odd reason I tend to confuse Minmin and Twintelle for each other in terms of popularity. Not sure what it is.

 

[Captain Shwampy]

The only Assist trophy reveal I want a is a double Shadow + Zero reveal but that will never happen

 

[Michael the Spikester]

That said though I'm gonna go on to say its Minmin. ARMS doesn't exactly seem like a series that'd have an main protagonist nor face thus I could see it being one where they'd go with the most popular character.

Besides if it were Spring Man (Whose already an assist trophy. I'm of the opinion assists won't be promoted and find spirits to be more likely to be) they probably would had revealed him so it makes me think they're trying to surprise us.

 

[Animegamingnerd]

I’m veeery curious about when the choices for the second pass were finalized. If they were locked down after the final ARMS event, I think Min-Min really has the best chances overall. She was already popular, and now that Nintendo has evidence to back the claim that Min-Min is the most popular character from that series, it makes plenty of sense to include her as the rep for the series.
Honestly, she could even take over the mascot role when ARMS 2 comes around, if that actually happens. No one will cry for poor old Spring Man, probably.

(I haven’t even played ARMS so I have no horse in this race, just guessing based on the info I’ve seen.)

The final party crash was in June of last year, now I swear I heard rumor that season 2 was finalized around E3. That does make a good case of it being Min Min if that is the case.

I even looked it up on the Arms wiki, found it interesting how Min Min kept winning them and only ever lost won of them once.
https://armswiki.org/wiki/Party_Crash

Also remember how the final splatfest of Splatoon 1 influenced the plot of Splatoon 2? I think we might be on to something here.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

I’m veeery curious about when the choices for the second pass were finalized. If they were locked down after the final ARMS event, I think Min-Min really has the best chances overall. She was already popular, and now that Nintendo has evidence to back the claim that Min-Min is the most popular character from that series, it makes plenty of sense to include her as the rep for the series.
Honestly, she could even take over the mascot role when ARMS 2 comes around, if that actually happens. No one will cry for poor old Spring Man, probably.

(I haven’t even played ARMS so I have no horse in this race, just guessing based on the info I’ve seen.)

I agree. The fact they didn't reveal who it was right away makes me think they're trying to surprise fans. If it were Spring Man they would had likely revealed it was him.

 

[Proceleon]

>Bayo glitch theory due to a glitch in Bayo's texture.
>Dr. Coyle literally changes texture when she turns invisible.

Um.. guys...

 

[Ridrool64]

Well my theory that we'd see FPV1 repeated here was blown away.

While I still somewhat anticipate a tiny third party bias because, well, that's where the money is, ARMS could be a big indicator on how it plays out.

Spoiler: Wall of (Theorycrafting) Text

Challenger Pack 6 is, or has, Spring Man as the main Fighter:

1. Waluigi is virtually guaranteed. I really believe that Waluigi would be a huge deal and overall just a massive showcase of support to the fans, as well as being the only first party capable of contending with third parties. Outside of that, though, I don't see any other Assist Trophies or first-party Spirits.
   1. If the team is really THAT adamant about keeping Waluigi out, then Isaac is probably the likeliest Assist Trophy outside of him.
   2. If they wanna leave Spring Man special as the only promoted Assist Trophy, then we could see Spirits like Bandana Dee, Paper Mario, Dixie Kong, etc.
   3. Depending on if Rex's Mii Costume counts as DLC, that second chance may have been given to him. If it's considered DLC, though, he's probably somebody who got dealt a bad hand.
2. Urshifu/Calyrex are probably still happening. But now I could also see a second chance to Hoenn/Unova, or a unique Johto rep. Maybe Mystery Dungeon, but I doubt it since the hot one is a remake.
3. I think we will only get one big third party that would sell the pass on their own, since we really don't have many E3 calibur reveals out of the first parties beyond Waluigi, and for the hardcore fandom Isaac and Bandana Dee. I doubt we won't get one, Smash 4 had Ryu and Cloud and Ultimate had Hero (and, for different reasons, Banjo & Kazooie). Why only one? While they print money, they also eat money, so I don't expect more than one big character.
   1. Crash Bandicoot, Dante, Master Chief, Steve, Sora, Lara Croft, Heihachi Mishima... this level of third party.
   2. I would also put Agumon, 2B and Phoenix Wright here. Agumon is arguably an icon from a popular series, 2B is a relevant rising star, and Wright would go below but his status in the Smash fandom cements his spot here.
   3. Dunno where I'd put Rayman or Geno. Rayman is all around popular except in Japan, but he really isn't the kind of "HOLY ****" character. Geno is obviously here for the hardcore fandom, but is more or less a nobody outside of that.
4. We'll probably get two somewhat smaller third parties.
   1. Arle Nadja, Kazuma Kiryu, Amaterasu, Lloyd Irving, The Prince, Ryu Hayabusa, Bill Rizer, Neku Sakuraba, Crono and if I had to name one more, Adol Cristin. Among others, obviously.
   2. This is also where the indies go; Shantae, Shovel Knight, Frisk, Reimu and Quote, among others.
5. This timeline is closer to even on the ratio of first to third party. However we could do a slight favoring of first parties by adding one more first party and removing a small third party.
6. If you forced me to give 5 names...
   1. Spring Man/ARMS Battlers will be formally revealed in June. I cannot say if he/they will actually come out in June or if it's gonna be a bit later than that.
   2. Challenger Pack 7: Crash Bandicoot (June Direct*/September Release) - Worldwide, early crowd pleaser to get as many people purchasing the DLC as possible.
      1. If this is the guy whose meeting is delayed, you could swap the placement of Urshifu/Calyrex and Crash.
   3. Challenger Pack 8: Urshifu or Calyrex (November Direct/February Release) - From a popular series, promoting potential new Pokémon and also cross promoting to get Pokémon fans to buy Smash and Smash DLC.
   4. Challenger Pack 9: Lloyd Irving (April 2021 Direct/E3 Release) - No real reason, it's just bias talking. Hey, these are gun-to-my-head names. But if I had to justify it somehow, no matter how ridiculous or flimsy it is, Lloyd is an RPG character and Sakurai just needs his RPG fix. The man uses putting in JRPG protagonists with swords to sustain himself.
   5. Challenger Pack 10: Arle Nadja (E3 2021/July Release) - Japan's crowd pleaser. Promotes Puyo Puyo's 30th anniversary, and the 30th anniversary title. SEGA's had the longest continuous history with Smash, and also represents 90's arcade titles.
   6. Challenger Pack 11: Waluigi (E3 2021/November Release) - The fandom's crowd pleaser. He isn't a promotion, but is treated as the "Thank you for following the development of Super Smash Bros. Ultimate" character.

Challenger Pack 6 isn't Spring Man and it is not a Hero-esque ARMS global rep, but it is one of Ribbon Girl/Twintelle/Min-Min/Ninjara:

1. Unlike Waluigi in the Spring Man timeline, there is no clear-cut frontrunner out of the Spirits. I could see Bandana Dee or Paper Mario, and more based on upcoming titles but ARMS could easily be the only promoted Spirit here.
2. Urshifu/Calyrex are still in, and still have the same competiton.
3. Only one big third party.
4. We could see between two to three smaller third parties.
5. If I had to say 6 names...
   1. Challenger Pack 6: Min-Min (apparently, she's the fan favorite)
   2. Challenger Pack 7 to Challenger Pack 10 is the same as the previous timeline.
   3. Challenger Pack 11: Paper Mario (see Waluigi's reveal/release) - If the rumors of a new Paper Mario hold any weight, this guy could make it into Smash as a promotional pick in the same vein as Byleth. Otherwise, see Lloyd.

Challenger Pack 6 is an ARMS character who did not appear in the base game of SSBU:

1. Imagine Nintendo giving two months of false hope to first party fans. But seriously, all base game content disconfirming is likely still the case. Because of this, we probably won't get any first parties (unless BotW 2 or Prime 4 have anybody worth contending, there is Dragalia Lost but that could also get Spirited)...
2. The ARMS character doesn't necessarily have to come from ARMS 1, if there is an ARMS 2, but for the sake of this it really doesn't matter if they do or not.
3. ...except Pokémon, which WILL be Urshifu/Calyrex on the grounds of the ARMS exception.
4. We're still only getting one big third party. Debatably I'd say Heihachi is off the table, and definitely not Rayman and Geno.
5. However we're probably getting three smaller third parties. Ignore Shantae and Shovel Knight.
6. One last time, if I had to take a gander at this...
   1. Challenger Pack 6: Dr. Coyle (maybe Max Brass, whoever it isn't will be the Legend Spirit of the other's board)
      1. Everybody else? Sorry, you're getting the Spirit Board treatment.
   2. Once again, see the original timeline.
   3. Challenger Pack 11: Ryu Hayabusa (see Waluigi's reveal/release). - Hayabusa is among the last of the major NES icons missing from Smash, and his home company is already on board, making getting the rights to him a lot easier.

I don't actually expect to be right about this, but these are just my current thoughts on the situation Smash finds itself in. This next character could be a massive indicator on how things will play out going forward. The next character could be more of the same. The next character could be completely non-indicative of things. And, of course, 2020 is a very different, very tragic kind of year, so we might see the pass go into 2022 if it turns out we can only get one fighter this year.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Well, I finally made a thread for a character that got chosen. So what if it was a somewhat wide net?

 

[PeridotGX]

Now that I think about it. I feel its gonna be Twintelle.

Remember how()and()had glitches regarding Training Mode meaning they were worked as an base for said DLC characters. The same had happened withwho was the spirit for Twintelle.

Plus factor in Twintelle's popularity out of the ARMS reps. This in turn will also kill the spirit deconfirmation rule and protagonist first rule for that matter, talk about killing two birds with one stone.

I.. really can't see Twintelle making it in as the first ARMS rep. ARMS's whole thing is strechy arms, the fighter that adds the series to Smash should have that core trait. Twintelle has a spin on it - it's her hair that's strechy. While that's really good for her potential prospects as the second ARMS character down the line, it hurts her for the first.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Technically Spring Man is still an ARMS rep so protagonist first rule still ain't broken.

 

[AreJay25]

Technically Spring Man is still an ARMS rep so protagonist first rule still ain't broken.

So what you're saying is King Knight has a chance

 

[Dalek_Kolt]

While we're on an ARMS discussion...
The reckoning is at hand.

 

[GoodGrief741]

ARMS doesn't exactly seem like a series that'd have an main protagonist nor face

You'd be mistaken then.

Not sure why you're so quick to jump to conclusions and make predictions with 100% confidence. You hear about a glitch, it's gotta be Twintelle. The glitch doesn't matter and the most popular character is Min-Min, it's gotta be her then. Relax. You're allowed to not know who the character is. Especially when you clearly aren't that familiar with the game that's getting repped.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

You'd be mistaken then.

Not sure why you're so quick to jump to conclusions and make predictions with 100% confidence. You hear about a glitch, it's gotta be Twintelle. The glitch doesn't matter and the most popular character is Min-Min, it's gotta be her then. Relax. You're allowed to not know who the character is. Especially when you clearly aren't that familiar with the game that's getting repped.

As said for some odd reason I confused Twintelle and Minmin in terms of popularity. Also the fact they didn't announce who it was makes me think they're going to surprise us otherwise I feel if it was Spring Man they would have said so already.

 

[Trevenant]

That said though I'm gonna go on to say its Minmin. ARMS doesn't exactly seem like a series that'd have an main protagonist nor face thus I could see it being one where they'd go with the most popular character.

Besides if it were Spring Man (Whose already an assist trophy. I'm of the opinion assists won't be promoted and find spirits to be more likely to be) they probably would had revealed him so it makes me think they're trying to surprise us.

Wanna consider anyone else? Perhaps Springtron as he obviously has a phenomenal chance of getting in.

In all seriousness though, Bayo glitch means nothing. Ridley was the actual base for Banjo and Kazooie

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Spoiler

It's Hedlock and as you change skins, the base character changes but it still has Hedlock on the face.

But seriously... I'm kinda OK with an Arms character... It should have been base game IMO but still.
At least it will likely introduce new mechanics with the extending arms.

Anyway I bet it's Mechanica because so they can put some D.va from Overwatch implicit references.

What about the spirits board? The game haas "17 charcters" for what I know (I don't know much about it anyway), including the punch mascot and hedlock; who's going to be a legendary spirit?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

To be honest, this whole thing is kinda weird:

• Spring Man & Ribbon Girl are the best choices to represent ARMS but they're pretty vanilla, and why would they tease us like this if it was them.
• Min Min & Twintelle are the most popular ARMS characters.
• Max Brass & Dr. Coyle are the most story relevant, and both have strong gameplay draws beyond the stretchy arms of ARMS, but they're not really the best representatives for the game if added by themselves.

who's going to be a legendary spirit?

Either Headlok, Max Brass, or Dr. Coyle.

What I wonder is whether or not they'll add the previously existing ARMS spirits to the DLC spirit board.

 

[Proceleon]

Spoiler

It's Hedlock and as you change skins, the base character changes but it still has Hedlock on the face.

But seriously... I'm kinda OK with an Arms character... It should have been base game IMO but still.
At least it will likely introduce new mechanics with the extending arms.

Anyway I bet it's Mechanica because so they can put some D.va from Overwatch implicit references.

What about the spirits board? The game haas "17 charcters" for what I know (I don't know much about it anyway), including the punch mascot and hedlock; who's going to be a legendary spirit?

If you discount the Spirits already in Smash, ARMS has about 10 unrepped Fighters, that's already enough to make a Fighter and Spirit Board. Biff and Hedlok would be icing on the cake at that point.

 

[Kokiden]

You never hearing about it =/= it being obscure. ARMS sold over 2 million copies on the Switch which is impressive for a new Nintendo IP in a niche genre that was solely released in one platform.

When did I say anything about it being obscure?

I was talking about my own personal experience.

I'm not going to pretend to be excited for something I've never heard of before.

 

[Krankees]

I'm conflicted. I want it to be Min-Min but if Spring Man gets in then Shovel Knight has a chance.

 

[PSIGuy]

Wow that was really it. Nothing against Arms but damn what a boring way to reveal a Fighter. Hey FP6 is from this game, peace out. So much for expecting something big and surprising to kick off the second pass.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Another argument against Spring Man's favor. Since he has an model in the game. Development time on him would be way shorter. As said if it were him they would have announced it was him. The fact they didn't makes me think they're trying to surprise us.

 

[cosmicB]

Might have been talked about already since there's a lot of new posts, but this does assure the "new worlds" rule will not apply to pass 2. Whether we're looking at an AT/Spirit promotion rule break remains to be seen, but that's one thing we can be sure of.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

So much for expecting something big and surprising to kick off the second pass.

I disagree here, it's more of a "So much for expecting a ****ing name. Now guess who so we can hype up Colgate Boy so we can pretend people like him"

 

[AntagonisticGalaxyCetacea]

People sure are up in arms about who the character could be

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Another argument in Spring Man's favor. Since he has an model in the game. Development time on him would be way shorter.

Hmm...I wonder if this would give more credence to the idea that he comes with an Echo Fighter since most of the work's already been done with Spring Man's model. Then again taking what we have and turning it into the same quality models as a fighter might require redoing it anyway so perhaps not.

 

[3BitSaurus]

People sure are up in arms about who the character could be

Not only that, some of these theories are the biggest stretches I've ever seen. These will be some long three months until June.

Shame, really. A spring release would have been perfect.