Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Ridrool64]

I wasn't really counting on anything Smash-related this month before this news (outside of a tease), but at this point I think we have to weigh the chances that DLC for Smash Ultimate will be outright cancelled due to this. At the very least, anything before August feels like a pipe dream since I'd imagine manpower and working hours have dropped significantly, and even June feels too early if a postponement has to be announced. May was never happening to begin with, but now I think March and April can be considered busts.

Personally I expect October to November, though I'm also pessimistic. This is going to be a very long wait, because until the pandemic can be controlled to an extent it's safe to release, doing stuff like this is probably going to get too many people killed, or infected. This year is not our year.

 

[Deleted member]

They may have not planned to wait until E3, but they sure as heck are now.

Oh well. At least everyone is staying safe.

Better safe than sorry to say the least.

Looks like this could be enough time for the insiders to contact Vergeben on something should any of his trustworthy insiders ever make progress...

Stay safe everyone.

 

[Cosmic77]

After reading a little more, it sounds like Sakurai was supposed to present some character ideas to someone who works in a building that was shut down due to someone getting the Coronavirus.

I don't think he was referring to an actual character presentation like we were expecting. The time of the character reveal may or may not be effected, but development will come to a halt.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

I figured something like that could happen.

I think we could always get a reveal, but that the release of Fighter 6 gets delayed, as well as future development of further content.

Either way, buckle up and find some games to play! We’re potentially going to be waiting awhile.

 

[Deleted member]

Either way, buckle up and find some games to play! We’re potentially going to be waiting awhile.

I have the power of God and Anime on my side. I ain't gonna be bored.

 

[Deleted member]

Mfw

 

[andree123]

There is a possibility that Nintendo will announce the new fighter(s) as planned, but no development work will be done.

COVID-19 will have a huge impact on a lot of games, and a lot of titles will be impacted.

All this is via:https://t.co/8iA8zALKxn

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) March 17, 2020

Looks like we're getting a Joker-styled reveal soon.

 

[Deleted member]

Well, that's disappointing, but understandable. Staying safe during a epidemic is more important then working on DLC for a one year old game.

I just hope Vol.2 doesn’t get silently cancelled or something.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Something else to think about:

Remember how everybody said, “2B is out because there’s no way he hadn’t met with Taro yet”?

This basically proves that line of thinking isn’t consistent. It seems there are two different phases, which would be a “proposal”, and then “gameplay discussion”, which could make sense with Dragon Quest.

Well, let’s hope everybody on the dev team is healthy and safe.

 

[XorahnGaia]

Further translations, courtesy of PushDustin

Soo it looks like excerpts of Sakurai's column might've leaked a full day early. It's about COVID-19, and the potential impact of Smash's development.

Take it with a grain of salt as it's not the full column so things might not be fully contextualized.

(Thread)

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) March 17, 2020

There is a possibility that Nintendo will announce the new fighter(s) as planned, but no development work will be done.

COVID-19 will have a huge impact on a lot of games, and a lot of titles will be impacted.

All this is via:https://t.co/8iA8zALKxn

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) March 17, 2020

EDIT: Ninja'd

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Didn't PushDustin mistranslate Sakurai recently regarding his health?

 

[Deleted member]

There is a possibility that Nintendo will announce the new fighter(s) as planned, but no development work will be done.

COVID-19 will have a huge impact on a lot of games, and a lot of titles will be impacted.

All this is via:https://t.co/8iA8zALKxn

— Will (PushDustIn) (@PushDustIn) March 17, 2020

Looks like we're getting a Joker-styled reveal soon.

It's better really to keep the community aware of the DLC character at least.

Still holding out for the grand reveal.

 

[HansShotFirst20]

It seems the cancelled presentation was not a public reveal, but a meeting with a publisher (presumably whichever publisher the character belongs to)-- probably a treatment or pitch on how he would implement the character in smash, pending approval.

In any case, the presentation was cancelled due to fears over Coronavirus, and it's likely this will also mean a delay in development for smash DLC in general.

It seems even if Nintendo was ready to announce a character, they're probably going to hold off on it now, as they don't want to disappoint anyone if the character is delayed/cancelled.

 

[I.D.]

We don't even know if the character (or characters) he's referring to is the next one in line. After all, would he still be trying to discuss how to implement the next character with their publisher at this point?

 

[andree123]

In the latest Famitsu, Sakurai said he had plans to go to a publisher to present a new Smash Ultimate Fighter's Pass Volume 2 DLC fighter from that publisher, but it has been put on hold because of Coronavirus and the travel restrictions in place.

Source: https://t.co/WkPBngzcYD

— Stealth (@Stealth40k) March 17, 2020

The travel restrictions delayed the content in Fighters pass vol. 2. The viruses are not alone.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

We don't even know if the character (or characters) he's referring to is the next one in line. After all, would he still be trying to discuss how to implement the next character with their publisher at this point?

Exactly what I was thinking, sounds to me like it was specifically a character that was later down the line in the pass.

Because of how these DLC characters are developed the first couple of them are probably either done or close to completion. But the way this is worded seems to imply it's one that's still early on in development.

 

[RileyXY1]

Well, now this makes me think that FP6 is a Western made character.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Couldn’t they do online video conferences though? Or would in person be preferable?

 

[MasterOfKnees]

We don't even know if the character (or characters) he's referring to is the next one in line. After all, would he still be trying to discuss how to implement the next character with their publisher at this point?

Yeah, it absolutely isn't #6, by the sounds of it they had already nailed down an announcement date for the next one, so it's obviously far past the conceptual development stage. I'd guess it's #9 at the earliest, but maybe even #10 or #11.

 

[CapitaineCrash]

In the latest Famitsu, Sakurai said he had plans to go to a publisher to present a new Smash Ultimate Fighter's Pass Volume 2 DLC fighter from that publisher, but it has been put on hold because of Coronavirus and the travel restrictions in place.

Source: https://t.co/WkPBngzcYD

— Stealth (@Stealth40k) March 17, 2020

The travel restrictions delayed the content in Fighters pass vol. 2. The viruses are not alone.

I('m not sure how the situation is in Japan but could this hint that the fighter is Western? Maybe he can't take the plane because of the virus, but maybe he's just talking about travel like trains.

 

[andree123]

Anyone expecting a 2D anime reveal for the next fighter or another 3D CGI reveal (which in my own opinion, this is least likely to happen) for the next fighter?

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

Well, now this makes me think that FP6 is a Western made character.

That makes no sense, the thing is a worldwide problem now and is really bad in Japan. He could just be talking about train services.

 

[RileyXY1]

I('m not sure how the situation is in Japan but could this hint that the fighter is Western? Maybe he can't take the plane because of the virus, but maybe he's just talking about travel like trains.

That absolutely makes me think that there will be at least one Western made character in FP2, and the travel restrictions prevented Sakurai from meeting with the publisher of that character, whether it be Bethesda, Activision, Ubisoft, or some other Western developer.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Well, now this makes me think that FP6 is a Western made character.

Not necessarily. Pretty sure Japan has restricted train travel and going to other districts to reduce spread of the virus. After all Italy is currently quarantined, EVERYBODY has to stay indoors except select service workers wearing like hazmat suits

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Well, now this makes me think that FP6 is a Western made character.

We can probably use this information to narrow down who it is...

 

[XorahnGaia]

I mean, it's possible that Sakurai could be talking about travelling between cities, not just international travels.
At the end of the day, both scenarios are in place to help contain the spread of the virus, so I don't think this necessarily narrows down our speculation that much.

 

[Cosmic77]

And now everyone will convince themselves that Sakurai was talking about air travel to the US and that the next character is someone like Crash or Master Chief.

Don't see how that logic could backfire horribly when the next character is revealed.

 

[HansShotFirst20]

And now everyone will convince themselves that Sakurai was talking about air travel to the US and that the next character is someone like Crash or Master Chief.

Don't see how that logic could backfire horribly when the next character is revealed.

It's obviously Phoenix Wright -- who is being cancelled due to his sneezing-based moveset

 

[MasterOfKnees]

I might be misremembering, but didn't Rare say that they had video calls with the Smash team about Banjo's inclusion or something? Of course it might vary from company to company how they want the plans to be presented, but if Sakurai never actually travelled to Rare's offices, wouldn't this then indicate that it's actually not a western character, but rather one owned by a company within a closer distance?

 

[Ridrool64]

Anyone expecting a 2D anime reveal for the next fighter or another 3D CGI reveal (which in my own opinion, this is least likely to happen) for the next fighter?

Depends on how big of a deal this character is.

They reserved the CGI for the characters who would make Japan **** their pants in hype and bring the Smash fandom to their knees, in the forms of Hero and Banjo & Kazooie. The other three all got relatively lower budget reveals, animated in the artstyle/sprites of their home series. And Piranha Plant was given a machinima (in game graphics) reveal.

I'm currently expecting a machinima trailer, though I could also see 2D anime reveal. I imagine that if they even have the budget to license out and make a CGI trailer it'd be reserved for the biggest of big deals. Stuff that would make headlines across the gaming industry, like Master Chief, Crash Bandicoot, Sora, or Lara Croft.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

In the meantime let’s talk about something else

pic.twitter.com/4nGgrA6tMT

— 桜井 政博 / Masahiro Sakurai (@Sora_Sakurai) March 17, 2020

This is technically from WoL’s final battle, the platform sequence iirc, but remember how Hero’s trailer had the Dark Realm aura (just the aura not the full body Phantom effect like shown here)? He definitely has access to those and I have a feeling one of the FPV2 trailers will include the Light Realm effects instead

still hope the auras and phantom fighter effects become available for use for everyone outside of WoL someday

 

[SKX31]

The travel restrictions delayed the content in Fighters pass vol. 2. The viruses are not alone.

Not necessarily. Pretty sure Japan has restricted train travel and going to other districts to reduce spread of the virus. After all Italy is currently quarantined, EVERYBODY has to stay indoors except select service workers wearing like hazmat suits

Japan doesn't have any domestic travel restriction laws though - only recommendations:

Can the government order city lockdowns to deal with the coronavirus outbreak?

According to Hyogo-based lawyer Koju Nagai, who is well versed in disaster prevention laws, the short answer is no.

The closest Japan has at the moment, he said, is a law enacted in 2012 to battle a novel influenza virus that became a pandemic in 2009. The law spells out a raft of measures that can be taken by governors to restrict the movement of people.

But even so, municipal leaders can merely request that residents under their jurisdiction stay indoors as much as possible and that schools and other public facilities temporarily shut or scale back their businesses. Should the requests be disobeyed, governors can take it up a notch and issue something that amounts to an order, although failure to comply entails no penalties, Nagai said.

There is also the question of whether the anti-influenza law, which applies only to completely new infectious diseases, can be used for the COVID-19 outbreak. Health minister Katsunobu Kato has reportedly told the Diet that the current crisis does not constitute a new disease as envisioned by the law because coronaviruses have been a known entity for years.

The Abe government pretty much revised said law though for this pandemic:

When the bill to revise the law is enacted, the prime minister will be granted authority to issue a state of emergency in a certain area for a limited period of time if he deems that a swift, nationwide epidemic could have a devastating impact on people's everyday lives and the Japanese economy.

In response to the state of emergency declaration, the governors of Japan's 47 prefectures will have the authority to call on local residents to refrain from going out and either request or order restrictions on the use of facilities where a large number of people gather, such as schools, sports centers and movie theaters.

Chances are most Japanese companies are concentrated in Honshu, aka. Tokyo / Kyoto / Osaka and thus reachable by train / car. Thing is - the reccomendation could still hold a lot of weight.

We can probably use this information to narrow down who it is...

It sounds like a non-Japanese publisher, but I'm not gonna say 100 % on that obviously.

Aside from those RileyXY1 mentioned (Bethesda is headquatered in Maryland, Activision-Blizzard in California and Ubisoft in the eastern suburbs of Paris - all pretty hard hit) there's also Microsoft (Washington, the hardest hit state in the US). Most others are located in Silicon Valley or Washington (like Valve). A special mention goes to Riot Games - who is located in downtown LA but whose publisher Tencent is headquatered in Shenzhen.

No matter where you look the virus has hit pretty hard. So no, not narrowing down much I'm afraid.

 

[Phoenixio]

Let's be careful from translations, especially since nobody has the full text. There's a lot of context to translating Japanese, and we're hungry for small details that might get lost in the word of mouth translating happening now. The reveal being delayed might refer to either delayed from it's intended imminent reveal time, or delayed to now because the virus was an issue for a while already in Japan and thus explaining the lack of news until now (but not necessarily debunking a March 26th reveal). Do we even know how long in advance Sakurai writes these articles before they get published?

 

[Gumshoe77]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PushDustIn/status/1239909588498919425

Not sure why people are saying the FP6 announcement is getting delayed. If anything, this is likely a fighter in the far future getting their release pushed back.

And even if it does mean FP6 is coming later, it was outright stated that there is a chance Nintendo could still have the announcement as scheduled.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PushDustIn/status/1239905419809533953

 

[RileyXY1]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PushDustIn/status/1239909588498919425

Not sure why people are saying the FP6 announcement is getting delayed. If anything, this is likely a fighter in the far future getting their release pushed back.

And even if it does mean FP6 is coming later, it was outright stated that there is a chance Nintendo could still have the announcement as scheduled.

https://mobile.twitter.com/PushDustIn/status/1239905419809533953

Because people are assuming that this is FP6 that they're talking about.

 

[Faso115]

It takes a global pandemic to make Sakurai stop working. Think about that.

Anyway, INB4 conspiracy that the next smash bros character is virus themed which explains their delayed. Same logic as Isaac and the Hokkaido earthquake, flawless logic /s

 

[Hadokeyblade]

It takes a global pandemic to make Sakurai stop working. Think about that.

Anyway, INB4 conspiracy that the next smash bros character is virus themed which explains their delayed. Same logic as Isaac and the Hokkaido earthquake, flawless logic /s

Megaman.EXE baybee.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

It takes a global pandemic to make Sakurai stop working. Think about that.

Anyway, INB4 conspiracy that the next smash bros character is virus themed which explains their delayed. Same logic as Isaac and the Hokkaido earthquake, flawless logic /s

dont jinx it
At least Sakurai might be able to get some rest as a result?

 

[Gumshoe77]

Because people are assuming that this is FP6 that they're talking about.

If FP6 was originally intended to be at E3, maybe.

If the intent was to reveal them next week, its probably someone later down the road.

And again, it was outright stated that Nintendo could still reveal them as scheduled. Until we get more context, I’m not pushing the panic button just yet.

Won’t deny that release dates will get delayed though.

 

[Hydreigonfan01]

It takes a global pandemic to make Sakurai stop working. Think about that.

Anyway, INB4 conspiracy that the next smash bros character is virus themed which explains their delayed. Same logic as Isaac and the Hokkaido earthquake, flawless logic /s

Dr. Mario confirmed. Oh wait.