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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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If you're not the token surprise/wtf character or lack popularity comparable to K. Rool and Banjo, "irrelevance" is still very much a factor that can hinder inclusion. Geno does have lots of popularity, which is why he might get in, but just because "irrelevance" isn't a rule doesn't mean it's not a thing.
I feel ya. Fortunately I don't feel irrelevance hinders Geno's chances either and if it did, we'd have to hold at least some characters to the same standards right? Otherwise, we're picking and choosing. Geno has more going for him than popularity too by the way. Great moveset potential, great representative for the Mario franchise (despite being SE owned, his logo would be the mushroom), Sakurai's love for gun arms and he's just cool as hell.

Geno has a lot going for him. Relevancy isn't something we should worry about in his case imo.
 

Cosmic77

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Just because relevancy hasn't been a factor for certain characters getting in Smash doesn't mean we can just throw it out the window altogether, especially when two of the characters people keep using for this argument (K. Rool and Banjo) needed essentially the entire Smash fandom to support them before Sakurai decided to add them.

We know for a fact that relevancy is something that Sakurai considers, and it's a large part of the reason why newer Pokemon and FE characters are prioritized over older ones. It's also partly why franchise that are currently dormant (F-Zero, EarthBound, Kid Icarus, etc.) haven't been getting any new characters, despite there being several options to choose from.
 

Eldrake

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I think that we can all agree that regardless of who's in the Vol 2, Nintendo will frontload it with the megaton hype characters like usual.
 

BernkastelWitch

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- Reimu/Marisa/: Touhou is a nightmare copyright-wise when you take a look outside of the main games - and this is arguably where Touhou really gets his charm from and a major roadblock for any inclusion.
Actually copyright for Touhou is very lax, hence all the fangames. ZUN is a very, very relaxed person when it comes to people making indie works of his own indie stuff. And he has expressed interest in Reimu in Smash so if anything, he'd be one of the easier people to go up to for negotiation compared to others if Sakurai ever goes that route.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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I feel ya. Fortunately I don't feel irrelevance hinders Geno's chances either and if it did, we'd have to hold at least some characters to the same standards right? Otherwise, we're picking and choosing. Geno has more going for him than popularity too by the way. Great moveset potential, great representative for the Mario franchise (despite being SE owned, his logo would be the mushroom), Sakurai's love for gun arms and he's just cool as hell.

Geno has a lot going for him. Relevancy isn't something we should worry about in his case imo.
I mean, Sakurai already considered the character. Relevancy isn't going to outright stop him. His boss or SE are the only things holding it back. He already felt like he could envision a moveset too, if I remember how he described the Mii Gunner Costume correctly. I could be off, though.

Regardless, relevancy is, well, relative to the situation and always has context. We also don't know every detail. K. Rool's franchise being relevant may not have mattered anyway. Fan demand was all that did, for instance. Banjo's franchise kept extremely relevant was probably not a factor to begin with. Why would it need to be? Major fan demand. If anything, the fact it was being kept active(well, life support) may have made it slightly easier to negotiate for. And that's purely a maybe. Microsoft is still a business. If it was a franchise completely out of use, they may have said no instead. No way to know for sure.
 

Rie Sonomura

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ok so

let's say FP6 is another hype bringer to give ppl an incentive to get the pass, but let's also assume MandyCanNot is wrong and it's NOT Crash.

Who could fill that role? Hayabusa? Neku? A Nintendo character (say who)?
 

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Now, I wanted to make a visual for my Fighter's Pass. However, I know nothing about Photoshop. Thankfully, there's a program I know that's near and dear to my heart.

MS Paint.
export.png
 

Nemuresu

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ok so

let's say FP6 is another hype bringer to give ppl an incentive to get the pass, but let's also assume MandyCanNot is wrong and it's NOT Crash.

Who could fill that role? Hayabusa? Neku? A Nintendo character (say who)?
Hayabusa, Sora and Dante come to mind. This character has to be a big name if Nintendo wants to emulate Joker's reactions. Neku would probably be some "halfway through" character like Terry, and depending on who it is, a Nintendo character could be the same or an anticlimatic end.
 

Rie Sonomura

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so new companies can get a spirit board event with one of their own franchises, I wonder what other new company can get spirit board event based one of their franchises.
Spike Chunsoft with Danganronpa? Idea Factory with Neptunia? Falcom with Ys/Legend of Heroes?
 
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I mean, Sakurai already considered the character. Relevancy isn't going to outright stop him. His boss or SE are the only things holding it back. He already felt like he could envision a moveset too, if I remember how he described the Mii Gunner Costume correctly. I could be off, though.

Regardless, relevancy is, well, relative to the situation and always has context. We also don't know every detail. K. Rool's franchise being relevant may not have mattered anyway. Fan demand was all that did, for instance. Banjo's franchise kept extremely relevant was probably not a factor to begin with. Why would it need to be? Major fan demand. If anything, the fact it was being kept active(well, life support) may have made it slightly easier to negotiate for. And that's purely a maybe. Microsoft is still a business. If it was a franchise completely out of use, they may have said no instead. No way to know for sure.
I feel like relevancy is kind of a subjective stance when talking about Smash characters. That's just me though.

Again, only point I was trying to make was that relevancy isn't a hurdle for Geno considering circumstances of some of the other characters we got so far. We can keep making cases for them all we want but again, it's picking and choosing.
 

Guybrush20X6

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Who is the one character everyone wants, but they know in their hearts of hearts it’ll never happen?

For me, it’s Cooking Mama.
Unless Nintendo is really trying to corner the East Europe market it will never happen but

 

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ok so

let's say FP6 is another hype bringer to give ppl an incentive to get the pass, but let's also assume MandyCanNot is wrong and it's NOT Crash.

Who could fill that role? Hayabusa? Neku? A Nintendo character (say who)?
Nightmare(Soul Calibur) is a rather big gun, if only due to having a pretty good presence. I'd argue Agumon, but he doesn't seem nearly as hype to a lot anymore. Digimon has not been nearly as mainstream as it used to be. Heihachi could still have that. Lloyd could go either way.

Nintendo-wise, a non-Echo Dixie Kong could make a strong statement. So could a Pokemon, but there's also various AT's that could see an upgrade. Shadow, Isaac, Ashley, to name a few.

With Doom Slayer out, you still have some cool FPS options. Steve would say a lot, but it could go mixed too, since there's some irrational hatred of avatars too.

A Zelda character could be interesting, especially if it was from BOTW2. ...As long as it's not a new version of Zelda, which would be more lukewarm due to people getting tired of the Triforce trio. She's a popular version, don't get me wrong, but she isn't variety enough. Impa might work out, though. Pig Ganon and Tingle don't seem like they'd start a pass with nearly as strong of a presence. One is part of the Triforce Trio while the other still has some lingering hatred.

To be honest, I think a 3rd party might have a stronger impact right now. Even possibly Geno.

I feel like relevancy is kind of a subjective stance when talking about Smash characters. That's just me though.

Again, only point I was trying to make was that relevancy isn't a hurdle for Geno considering circumstances of some of the other characters we got so far. We can keep making cases for them all we want but again, it's picking and choosing.
I don't there's that much subjectivity. A character is the spotlight by their owning company is clearly relevant. Like, it's silly to think they aren't being used despite that clearly being the case.

Whether it affects a character or not is very subjective. We have no hard rules on it, yeah. But I agree, that's not important to Geno's situation.
 

SuperSmashStephen

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Hayabusa, Sora and Dante come to mind. This character has to be a big name if Nintendo wants to emulate Joker's reactions. Neku would probably be some "halfway through" character like Terry, and depending on who it is, a Nintendo character could be the same or an anticlimatic end.
Sora. Sora. Sora! SORA! SIMPLE AND CLEAN IS THE WAY THAT YOU’RE MAKIN’ ME FEEL TONIGHT!
 
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ok so

let's say FP6 is another hype bringer to give ppl an incentive to get the pass, but let's also assume MandyCanNot is wrong and it's NOT Crash.

Who could fill that role? Hayabusa? Neku? A Nintendo character (say who)?
Oh You already know who:smirk:
BACC2DE4-6EDE-49B4-A6A9-D794EFF2FD60.jpeg
 

Playstation Guy 1000

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ok so

let's say FP6 is another hype bringer to give ppl an incentive to get the pass, but let's also assume MandyCanNot is wrong and it's NOT Crash.

Who could fill that role? Hayabusa? Neku? A Nintendo character (say who)?
Doomslayer, Dante, Sora, Ryu Hayabusa, 2B, Phoenix Wright, Lara Croft, can be bring up a lot of hype to the smash fandom.

Spike Chunsoft with Danganronpa? Idea Factory with Neptunia? Falcom with Ys/Legend of Heroes?
pretty good choices although the first two can be likely to be a playable character(Monokuma and Neptune respectively to be exact).
 

Flik

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Funny how Heihachi (or rather a Tekken character) is believed to be difficulty to bring to Smash because 3D Fighting game mechanics, but nobody says this about Soul Calibur, a game that relies on 3D movement a lot more than Tekken where the characters can barely jump lol Siegfried and Nightmare for Smash BTW
 

Cutie Gwen

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Funny how Heihachi (or rather a Tekken character) is believed to be difficulty to bring to Smash because 3D Fighting game mechanics, but nobody says this about Soul Calibur, a game that relies on 3D movement a lot more than Tekken where the characters can barely jump lol Siegfried and Nightmare for Smash BTW
I never played SC but in Tekken, the attack buttons are all based on limbs, 3D movement wasn't the issue but rather adapting Tekken's control scheme
 

Krankees

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Doomslayer, Dante, Sora, Ryu Hayabusa, 2B, Phoenix Wright, Lara Croft, can be bring up a lot of hype to the smash fandom.


pretty good choices although the first two can be likely to be a playable character(Monokuma and Neptune respectively to be exact).
I think Phoenix would be in the same area of hype as Joker. Not super mainstream hype but still more than being a "who?".
 

DaybreakHorizon

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ok so

let's say FP6 is another hype bringer to give ppl an incentive to get the pass, but let's also assume MandyCanNot is wrong and it's NOT Crash.

Who could fill that role? Hayabusa? Neku? A Nintendo character (say who)?
None of the above.

The only three capable of creating major hype in my eyes would be Dante, Sora, or Master Chief. Anybody else is going to pale in comparison.

If we're looking for closer to Joker levels of comparison, than 2B, Travis, Lloyd, or Heihachi would be good notes to begin on.
 

Lacrimosa

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That statement applies to 3/5 characters in the first pass. It would've been 4/5 if it weren't for Verge.
Joker, Hero and Banjo were unexpected picks?
Terry is a fighting character but instead of hype, most people were confuzzled: "Who's that?". It was still a very positive reaction, though.
Dunno, Joker was revealed very early, no speculations there, but Hero and Banjo were also in the center of attention or at least in the pool of very likely characters.
 
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mynameisBlade

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I mean, Sakurai already considered the character. Relevancy isn't going to outright stop him. His boss or SE are the only things holding it back. He already felt like he could envision a moveset too, if I remember how he described the Mii Gunner Costume correctly. I could be off, though.

Regardless, relevancy is, well, relative to the situation and always has context. We also don't know every detail. K. Rool's franchise being relevant may not have mattered anyway. Fan demand was all that did, for instance. Banjo's franchise kept extremely relevant was probably not a factor to begin with. Why would it need to be? Major fan demand. If anything, the fact it was being kept active(well, life support) may have made it slightly easier to negotiate for. And that's purely a maybe. Microsoft is still a business. If it was a franchise completely out of use, they may have said no instead. No way to know for sure.
If it wasn't for the Ballot I FIRMLY believe King K. Rool would STILL not be in this game. Really never mattered how successful the DK series was and didn't matter that it was still going. The fans got him in. Plain and simple. Same with Banjo. Crazy enough Banjo seemingly had a better shot... Sad to even comprehend that.

When a characters own creator is surprised by their inclusion to ANYTHING this big, that really says a lot. Kevin Bayliss was very surprised he got in.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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Joker, Hero and Banjo were unexpected picks?
Terry is a fighting character but instead of hype, most people were confuzzled: "Who's that?". It was still a very positive reaction, though.
Dunno, Joker was revealed very early, no speculations there, but Hero and Banjo were also in the center of attention or at least in the pool of very likely characters.
Eh, a LOT of people expected Banjo, he's the only character on the pass people were confident in being in the game without leaks, had Hero's codename not been found and had Nintendo not leaked that SNK was involved for FP4, they wouldn't have been expected
 

Cosmic77

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Joker, Hero and Banjo were unexpected picks?
Terry is a fighting character but instead of hype, most people were confuzzled: "Who's that?". It was still a very positive reaction, though.
Dunno, Joker was revealed very early, no speculations there, but Hero and Banjo were also in the center of attention or at least in the pool of very likely characters.
Basically no one was predicting Joker or Terry.

Anyone who was predicting Byleth gave up after four consecutive third-parties.

If it weren't for Verge pointing us in the right direction, no one would've predicted Hero or known what "Brave" meant.

Banjo is the only character a lot of us were predicting, and even then it was mostly influenced by his popularity, not a genuine belief a Microsoft character would get in.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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Not to say there are “rules”, but I really, really don’t think it’s wise to ignore things that can definitely suggest potential outcomes. Inferences are just as useful here, in my humble opinion.

I honestly see some things as, essentially the following:

X: “Hey, I think this character could get in because of these reasons”/“I don’t think we’ll get this character because of these reasons...”

Y: “Bruh, stop making rules! I don’t care about rules that make my character of choice more likely. But that stuff you’re saying? The part that makes my character of choice seem not likely? Yeah, fan rule.”

Like yes, we’re here to have fun and talk about characters/a game we love. But as I’ve said before, wanting a character and that character being “likely” are very different things...unless, of course, you can make a substantial case as to why you character of choice makes sense/may actually have a shot.

Might just be the fact I’m an English teacher who literally instructs kids how to make an effective argument, but I can tell you right now...saying, “Just because of those reasons doesn’t mean [insert topic here] CANT HAPPEN” ain’t it.

Carry on.
 

TheCJBrine

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I don't remember anyone expecting Banjo-Kazooie to most-likely get in until PapaGenos's source and the merchandising last year. Most people I saw were doubting a Western character, some also feeling B-K wasn't relevant enough. Even after the leaks and stuff, a lot of people in the B-K thread were sweating, though we were mostly optimistic throughout the year but weren't very certain if I recall.

Not to say there are “rules”, but I really, really don’t think it’s wise to ignore things that can definitely suggest potential outcomes. Inferences are just as useful here, in my humble opinion.

I honestly see some things as, essentially the following:

X: “Hey, I think this character could get in because of these reasons”/“I don’t think we’ll get this character because of these reasons...”

Y: “Bruh, stop making rules! I don’t care about rules that make my character of choice more likely. But that stuff you’re saying? The part that makes my character of choice seem not likely? Yeah, fan rule.”

Like yes, we’re here to have fun and talk about characters/a game we love. But as I’ve said before, wanting a character and that character being “likely” are very different things...unless, of course, you can make a substantial case as to why you character of choice makes sense/may actually have a shot.

Might just be the fact I’m an English teacher who literally instructs kids how to make an effective argument, but I can tell you right now...saying, “Just because of those reasons doesn’t mean [insert topic here] CANT HAPPEN” ain’t it.

Carry on.
It's fine to think things won't happen because of some other things, but some people push the idea onto others as if we shouldn't expect them at all/as some sort-of guideline people should follow and it kinda kills the fun. Some people also have thought-out arguments as to why some things may not disconfirm yet those go ignored, and then this argument keeps being brought up over and over whenever someone mentions a character that's already a spirit or whatever.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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Basically no one was predicting Joker or Terry.

Anyone who was predicting Byleth gave up after four consecutive third-parties.

If it weren't for Verge pointing us in the right direction, no one would've predicted Hero or known what "Brave" meant.

Banjo is the only character a lot of us were predicting, and even then it was mostly influenced by his popularity, not a genuine belief a Microsoft character would get in.
People deduced that Brave meant Dragon Quest without Verge though, people realized it meant Yuusha
 

MisterMike

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Not to say there are “rules”, but I really, really don’t think it’s wise to ignore things that can definitely suggest potential outcomes. Inferences are just as useful here, in my humble opinion.

I honestly see some things as, essentially the following:

X: “Hey, I think this character could get in because of these reasons”/“I don’t think we’ll get this character because of these reasons...”

Y: “Bruh, stop making rules! I don’t care about rules that make my character of choice more likely. But that stuff you’re saying? The part that makes my character of choice seem not likely? Yeah, fan rule.”

Like yes, we’re here to have fun and talk about characters/a game we love. But as I’ve said before, wanting a character and that character being “likely” are very different things...unless, of course, you can make a substantial case as to why you character of choice makes sense/may actually have a shot.

Might just be the fact I’m an English teacher who literally instructs kids how to make an effective argument, but I can tell you right now...saying, “Just because of those reasons doesn’t mean [insert topic here] CANT HAPPEN” ain’t it.

Carry on.
If you're an english teacher, why isn't your icon Byleth?
CHECKMATE, ATHEISTS! :ultpacman:
 

TheYungLink

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Byleth does not have a moveset gimmick. Their 4 weapons are a theme, rather than a gimmick.

It would be a gimmick if they could switch stances and change their moves temporarily to affect what weapons show up for their A moves, but they don't.
  • Jab, tilts, up smash, up air, and up B are the Sword of the Creator,
  • forward smash, front air, back air, and side B are the spear that Dimitri uses,
  • neutral air and neutral B are the bow that Claude uses, and
  • down smash, down air, and down B are the axe Edelgard uses.
It's ironic. A bunch of people were against the Fighter's Pass characters because all of them had gimmicks, yet the only one who doesn't have one is the one people are complaining about the loudest. Even Banjo & Kazooie has a limited side B use, which their own supporters deny is a gimmick.
 

Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Sorry but if it wasn't for the Ballot I FIRMLY believe King K. Rool would STILL not be in this game. Really never mattered how successful the DK series was and didn't matter that it was still going. The fans got him in. Plain and simple. Same with Banjo. Crazy enough Banjo seemingly had a better shot... Sad to even comprehend that.

When a characters own creator is surprised by their inclusion to ANYTHING this big, that really says a lot. Kevin Bayliss was very surprised he got in.
Kevin isn't even with Nintendo nor was he involved with the process. There's no reason he would know. It means nothing whatsoever to the situation. Fan demand is the core factor, but the fact DK was still active also helps a lot. There's a lot better chances of K. Rool to be in a new game than Isaac will be. And Isaac sure as hell was popular, considering the tons of GS content we suddenly got(and many Mii costumes are just consolation prizes. It was easier to add that in with tons of GS content at the same time as is. Plus, the front runners got costumes first.

Yeah, not seeing a lack of relevancy on Banjo's part, and fan demand did play a partial role, but him being kept active by Microsoft probably helped. There's nothing to suggest the duo being used over and over again didn't always make it easier to negotiate. If they were completely inactive, even with the ballot, the chances of them getting in would've been a lot slimmer. Microsoft still is a business after all. All of the Microsoft content is from some kind of active product. This isn't that odd either. But they are a competitor, so what'd you expect?

Banjo absolutely had a better shot anyway without the massive fan demand from the ballot. Sakurai was already aware of it. He didn't need the ballot to add him. K. Rool partially needed the ballot, but being from an active franchise helped too. Chrom nor Dark Samus even needed the ballot either way. Both were easy echoes. Ballot is of course the core reason, but the Echo factor also was vastly important. If they couldn't be Echoes, they wouldn't be in. Things aren't black and white to begin with. A lot of characters didn't "need" the ballot so much as it overall helped. Ridley might be one of the only cases at this point, and that's because Sakurai had to do more than make a moveset or take the character into consideration. He had to give him an all new model because he was unable to be shrunken down.

If it weren't for Verge pointing us in the right direction, no one would've predicted Hero or known what "Brave" meant.
Verge isn't the usual reason people were predicting Hero, though. That's an extra bonus. Hero's predictions were because people were sure Brave meant Yuusha, which was a guess on various leakers' parts(which wasn't a leak at that point) as well. That's what led to the debate. Verge, at the time, had a list of 7 names. Erdrick and Luminary were some of them, but Hero was not mentioned yet. In fact, I don't remember Verge outright saying Hero, just Erdrick. This at best only made people think it was Erdrick, not a Hero with alts in general. Hero was still heavily thought upon on its own merits. Just drowned out by Erdrick. Incidentally Erdrick wasn't even the face, but that just means leakers were given pieces of information, so of course few would think it's something else. There's not a ton of people who thought Luminary could be the face, or that it was full of hero alts(I did, but my reasons don't even match what went behind the scenes, so that doesn't say much).
 

Lacrimosa

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Basically no one was predicting Joker or Terry.

Anyone who was predicting Byleth gave up after four consecutive third-parties.

If it weren't for Verge pointing us in the right direction, no one would've predicted Hero or known what "Brave" meant.

Banjo is the only character a lot of us were predicting, and even then it was mostly influenced by his popularity, not a genuine belief a Microsoft character would get in.
I think M$ catering so much to Nintendo over the course of the year pretty much gave Banjo or at least a M$ rep away.

And you tell me that Hero was also unexpected? We're talking "unexpected", as in they were never considered in discussions. Then there is release of DQXI. I just don't think that people were not expecting Hero. Were they sure? No, but he was very likely.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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I think M$ catering so much to Nintendo over the course of the year pretty much gave Banjo or at least a M$ rep away.

And you tell me that Hero was also unexpected? We're talking "unexpected", as in they were never considered in discussions. Then there is release of DQXI. I just don't think that people were not expecting Hero. Were they sure? No, but he was very likely.
At the same time people were only banking on DQ content because of it leaking due to Smash itself, that's like saying Ryu and Roy being at E3 2015 was an incredibly safe prediction because it was leaked due to datamining too
 

Lacrimosa

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At the same time people were only banking on DQ content because of it leaking due to Smash itself, that's like saying Ryu and Roy being at E3 2015 was an incredibly safe prediction because it was leaked due to datamining too
Hey, I drew these conclusions without even knowing about these datamining stuff.

I think it was very, very likely there were about to get it, even if I didn't know about datamining....
Was it really not the case that people talked about Hero and/or Banjo at all before the leaks? Because you make it sound like those two were never ever in people's minds.
 
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ThatOneAnon

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I really wish Kirkhope never ****ing said "I wouldn't hold your breath" cause now any company can say "our character's not in Smash" and people will just be like "I don't believe you."
 

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Hey, I drew these conclusions without even knowing about these datamining stuff.

I think it was very, very likely there were about to get it, even if we didn't know about datamining....
Was it really not the case that people talked about Hero and/or Banjo at all before the leaks? Because you make it sound like those two were never ever in people's minds.
Banjo was heavily talked about. SE in general got some garner thanks to the Square 7 list, but the characters had their support respectively. Geno was one of the many large fanbases. I'm sure other Hero-related threads were somewhat popular too, but I wasn't active among them so I can't say for sure. Sora's a huge thread, though. Slime was kind of big? Seemed less active than some. Neku I can't say. Crono I can't say either. Sephiroth wasn't the most active thread ever.
 

shinhed-echi

Smash Hero
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punchtropics
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People deduced that Brave meant Dragon Quest without Verge though, people realized it meant Yuusha
There was strong denial though.

People were like “nuh-uh, that’s got to be a Bravely Default character!” Or “It’s because of Brave Vesperia!” Or “Banjo is brave. So its Banjo” and “Sora has a Brave form, and was in Brave Exius, so it’s Sora”.

The REAL pointer was when Shinya Kumazaki posted that infamous picture of Kirby with Brave’s shield.
 
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