Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Will]

Listen, despite carrying your lunatic+ run, Frederick definitely aint as important as Porky.

i mean porky is pretty much why mother 3 exists

he's the driving force of the plot

 

[Idon]

True, but Ace Attorney games still sell well inside their genre. And there seem to be relatively few options among their active franchises. Out of these (to me, at least) the only ones that would stand in the way of Ace Attorney right now would be Resident Evil and possibly Monster Hunter, both many times larger. Either that, or they would choose a retro pick, but I don't know if Capcom would go with that option.

I bring this up because people keep using similar arguments to say they don't like the inclusion of characters like Bayonetta and Joker.

According to Capcom, the entire series has 6.9 million sales under its belt, which, while impressive, is dwarfed by a lot of other Capcom properties.

i mean porky is pretty much why mother 3 exists

he's the driving force of the plot

That goes with what I said don't it?

 

[Garteam]

At this point, the only way we're getting everyone back again is if the next Smash game builds directly off Ultimate (i.e. same engine, similar artstyle, very limited updates for veterans, and only a handful of newcomers) or they take the Splatoon route and provide major post-game support, regularly updating the game to include all the veterans that aren't in the launch roster.

Since we're on the topic of small rosters, here's a 30 character roster I made a few months ago. I'm considering updating it to 45 characters, as that seems to be the consensus on how many vets we'll see next time.

 

[Will]

6.9 million sales

nice

also how many we talking

 

[3BitSaurus]

nice

also how many we talking

Excluding Mega Man and Street Fighter (because they're already in Smash) and MvC (for obvious reasons), five Capcom franchises outsell AA in total sales: Onimusha (8M), Dead Rising (13M), Devil May Cry (17M), Monster Hunter (53M) and Resident Evil (86M).

 

[Izanagi97]

I think that there will be more DLC outside of the fighter pass. I believe that Ultimate will continue to be expanded with DLC for as long as the Switch is supported. I also highly doubt that they would develop another Smash game for the Switch.

Yeah it's like I said before. Why stop DLC only a year into the life of the best selling fighting game and 3 years into a highly successful system that Nintendo wants to last for 7-10 years.

Isn’t Jin from Xenoblade Chronicles 2 also missing from the Spirit list? Which is pretty odd considering he’s the main antagonist. And one of the main protagonists of Torna the Golden Country DLC.

Yeah, but considering the timeframe with Ultimate, DLC, and XC2, either Jin or Rex and Pyra will probably end up in a second Fighter's pass.

 

[Idon]

nice

also how many we talking

MH, RE, DMC, Dead Rising, Onimusha.

As far as I know, AA hasn't managed to break a million sales on a single release despite its legendary memetic status.

 

[RileyXY1]

Yeah it's like I said before. Why stop DLC only a year into the life of the best selling fighting game and 3 years into a highly successful system that Nintendo wants to last for 7-10 years.

You're right. The only way I can see them stopping Smash DLC after the Fighter Pass is if they decide to develop a second Smash game for the Switch and I highly doubt that's happening.

 

[GoodGrief741]

What shouldn't be forgotten is that during Capcom's long period of sucking, it was Monster Hunter and Ace Attorney keeping them afloat. That shouldn't be understated.

Also with 6.9 million sales and being a visual novel, Ace Attorney is still more iconic than Onimusha, Dead Rising, Monster Hunter, and arguably Devil May Cry, so I'd say that actually speaks in favor of Phoenix Wright's chances.

 

[Will]

Dead Rising

tfw 2019 and still no frank west support

 

[Captain Shades]

I'm fine with reboot talk but I don't get why everyone acts like a reboot will magically cut every character they dislike and "fix" every veteran they don't like how they're implemented.

I think the idea is just priority. Ultimately everyone will lose a favorite in the transition, but many think that the roster can be cleaned up a bit as 75 characters from roughly 20 years of titles will obviously lead to some less than favorable characters who are just there now. I really don’t have anything against any characters, but there are some clearly added to pad out roster picks and quite a few time sensitive picks.

They don't realize that some of these characters have bigger fanbases than they think, especially when Ultimate has the best sales and buffed some characters that supposedly no one likes.

Ultimate is also on the Switch, which pretty much guarantees high sales. If they brought them in during the Wii U, than the sales would be lower.

It is kind of odd actually, characters of other fighting games rarely get complete reworks. Even if their moveset changes drastically, it mostly serves to enhance the character's existing playtsyle. EDIT: Or they've been absent from the series for years.

To be fair.. Smash isn’t technically a fighting game.

I think another point is originality, as obviously Scorpion will continue to play like Scorpion because MK is the only thing he’s in. He’s not a character based on outside sources translated to a fighting game. As for the other fighting games, usually new mechanics and/ or story will be present. Other fighters also don’t bring back characters only having half a roster of old typically, while Smash’s has only grown to outweigh the new.

You'd have to be insane to think that a reboot of a succesful franchise with much less content would be good or well received. "We can't top Smash Ultimate even though the game lacks many features so let's remove half of the roster! It's different so it must be good!" doesn't make any sense from a business perspective.

You could really apply this to any big change that happens. I’d even say MK8 was in this same hypothetical situation as that game clearly had less characters and modes than MK Wii, yet it was still received and sold well due to the Racing having a big amount of emphasis placed on it as new mechanics were added. Even Smash Wii U was well regarded even though it took out every big mode from Brawl like Subspace and removed 2 of the Trainer Pokémon, Snake, Ice Climbers, Wolf, and Lucas with 13 new playable characters as compensation (2 of which being clones).

I don’t think people realize how well a reboot could work. We may even be able to have a Subspace again as there aren’t 75+ characters that need to work in the levels and have a place in the story. I’d give Smash room to breathe and try new things because right now, there’s too much content to cypher through to really try much outside of “Smash”.


To conclude this tangent, I guess I’ll say my piece. I think a reboot will become necessary at some point as we cannot possibly go on infinitely by just having the same game with a few new characters. At some point a change to the formula must come or there will be a franchise fatigue. I believe Ultimate is the perfect end to the series in its current form as it is the compilation of everything Smash has built up to. It feels like the proper end to an era, leaving the perfect opportunity for a new direction as fans of the old have their conclusion. Smash is like the MCU to me, and Ultimate is the Infinity War/ Endgame. We got a conclusion, but now a new story can be told with some old faces returning and many new ones.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

To be fair, most people are expecting 3rd party characters forvthe entire DLC period. They've got the ideology of "Joker and Erdrick = every other one will be 3rd party" which we currently have no proof for, especially with the last DLC period giving us First Party characters (and admittedly were just popular veterans sans Corrin who waa a special boy/girl like in Melee).

Who's to say we still can't get First Party characters? I mean, I personally think the remaining three will still be Third Party, but I'm not gonna say First Party characters are suddenly off the list for consideration.

If all of the DLC is gonna be Third Party, then they're more likely to get cut next time given basic logic as well as the fact that 15 characters is about a fifth of the roster minus the Miis, and also we'll have 79 including the Miis by the time we get our last DLC fighter. That's just a bad number, but maybe it'll make the bottom row have as many slots as the others?

 

[Idon]

To be fair, most people are expecting 3rd party characters forvthe entire DLC period. They've got the ideology of "Joker and Erdrick = every other one will be 3rd party" which we currently have no proof for, especially with the last DLC period giving us First Party characters (and admittedly were just popular veterans sans Corrin who waa a special boy/girl like in Melee).

Who's to say we still can't get First Party characters? I mean, I personally think the remaining three will still be Third Party, but I'm not gonna say First Party characters are suddenly off the list for consideration.

If all of the DLC is gonna be Third Party, then they're more likely to get cut next time given basic logic as well as the fact that 15 characters is about a fifth of the roster minus the Miis, and also we'll have 79 including the Miis by the time we get our last DLC fighter. That's just a bad number, but maybe it'll make the bottom row have as many slots as the others?

All DLC characters are supposed to bring in a whole new cast of characters for a DLC spiritboard and thus the 1st parties most want are already exempt by virtue of having already being represented.


Hypothetically of course.

 

[The DanMan051]

True, but Ace Attorney games still sell well inside their genre. And there seem to be relatively few options among their active franchises. Out of these (to me, at least) the only ones that would stand in the way of Ace Attorney right now would be Resident Evil and possibly Monster Hunter, both many times larger. Either that, or they would choose a retro pick, but I don't know if Capcom would go with that option.

I bring this up because people keep using similar arguments to say they don't like the inclusion of characters like Bayonetta and Joker.

Joker doesn't work with an argument like that at all, because Persona is the 2nd biggest series under Sega's wing after Sonic. And Bayonetta is still a comparatively new series with only two games at the time of Smash 4.

There's been over half a dozen AA games; it's a well established series (going on 2 decades) with a niche audience (to the point it's gone digital only in the West).

 

[Will]

All DLC characters are supposed to bring in a whole new cast of characters for a DLC spiritboard and thus the 1st parties most want are already exempt by virtue of having already being represented.


Hypothetically of course.

Picky Minch
Queen Mary
Giygas (EarthBound Beginnings)
Giygas (EarthBound)
Insane Cultist
Dr. Andonuts
Everdred
Frank Fly
Fassad
Mecha Drago
King Statue / Porky Statue
Pig Mask Army

and to that hypothesis i say bazinga

 

[3BitSaurus]

What shouldn't be forgotten is that during Capcom's long period of sucking, it was Monster Hunter and Ace Attorney keeping them afloat. That shouldn't be understated.

Also with 6.9 million sales and being a visual novel, Ace Attorney is still more iconic than Onimusha, Dead Rising, Monster Hunter, and arguably Devil May Cry, so I'd say that actually speaks in favor of Phoenix Wright's chances.

Pretty much this, but I wouldn't necessarily say AA is more iconic than MH or DMC in general. Phoenix is very iconic, yes. I remember someone in his thread talking about how he was one of the most anticipated newcomers in Ultimate Marvel Vs. Capcom 3... which is saying a lot, since characters like Strider, and Vergil were also newcomers. And yeah, the fact that it's "only" 1M sales away from Onimusha, which is one of Capcom's biggest action series, is very telling nonetheless.

tfw 2019 and still no frank west support

Well, there are some threads here... but overall, people do seem to sleep on him as a potential character.

Joker doesn't work with an argument like that at all, because Persona is the 2nd biggest series under Sega's wing after Sonic. And Bayonetta is still a comparatively new series with only two games at the time of Smash 4.

There's been over half a dozen AA games; it's a well established series (going on 2 decades) with a niche audience (to the point it's gone digital only in the West).

Oh, I'm not saying I agree with that line of thought, I just said that because people have constantly brought this up in the past whenever a series that they think is "too obscure" comes up.

 

[Curious Villager]

Joker doesn't work with an argument like that at all, because Persona is the 2nd biggest series under Sega's wing after Sonic.

I thought that was Puyo Puyo...
Or am I misremembering?

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Listen, despite carrying your lunatic+ run, Frederick definitely aint as important as Porky.

Still not in though. Who the hell follows up Joker with Porky.

How about neither of them are important at all?
If Frederick has a 1% chance of getting in then Porky has a 1.001% chance. Being better at Smash than a 5 year old doesn’t make me as skilled as a Professional.

 

[The DanMan051]

Oh, I'm not saying I agree with that line of thought, I just said that because people have constantly brought this up in the past whenever a series that they think is "too obscure" comes up.

And I'm saying that AA is, if anything, the inverse-- it's popular in the Smash echo chamber but it's demonstrably the least popular of Capcom's active series.

Isn't this really off-topic? Whatever.

I'm fine with reboot talk but I don't get why everyone acts like a reboot will magically cut every character they dislike and "fix" every veteran they don't like how they're implemented.

If anything, a "reboot" would carry over a lot and hedge its bets on newer characters generating hype. People are already complaining about 10 3rd parties in a 75 character roster-- turning around and asking for a reboot may as well be asking for 10 3rd parties in a 35 character roster. Because that's what they'd do.

I thought that was Puyo Puyo...
Or am I misremembering?

Maybe I'm wrong; I'm more thinking on a global scale.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

I still want to see a Tetris Block. Like, come on! At least make it an assist or a stage if not a character!

 

[Will]

I still want to see a Tetris Block. Like, come on! At least make it an assist or a stage if not a character!

would it just be the l block or like a block person

 

[A.G.L.]

Yeah it's like I said before. Why stop DLC only a year into the life of the best selling fighting game and 3 years into a highly successful system that Nintendo wants to last for 7-10 years.


Yeah, but considering the timeframe with Ultimate, DLC, and XC2, either Jin or Rex and Pyra will probably end up in a second Fighter's pass.

That would be pretty cool if Jin from XC2 ended up in the second fighter pass. He might be easier to put in due to that he is both a driver and a blade.

Unlike Rex and Pyra, where you would have to find a way to put them both in the moveset and find a way to balance them.

 

[Will]

actually since tetris blocks have names

maybe "brave" was tetris all along

How about neither of them are important at all?

define important in this case

cause porky is hella important to the mother franchise

 

[Idon]

How about neither of them are important at all?

Porky's a major character in EB and M3, wym?

 

[RileyXY1]

define important in this case

cause porky is hella important to the mother franchise

That doesn't mean that Porky has to be playable in Smash.

 

[Will]

That doesn't mean that Porky has to be playable in Smash.

counterpoint:

no one has to be playable in smash, there's no deserving a spot or some made up term like that. it's who sakurai chooses from a list in the end, and if he likes porky then well damn we're gonna see a porky. i don't think he should be invalidated, but i'm not saying he's the most likely candidate either

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Porky's a major character in EB and M3, wym?

One of those games is not even released in America and the series in general already has a ton of content for how small it actually is. And it hasn’t been active in more than a decade.

I love the Mother series as much as the next guy but it doesn’t need three unique characters.

 

[RileyXY1]

It's still looking likely (as much as I hate to admit it) that the Fighter Pass is going to be all 3rd party.

 

[Deleted member]

I thought that was Puyo Puyo...
Or am I misremembering?

I'm not sure about second best selling, but it's definitely sold far more games. The Puyo Puyo series has sold ~22 Million, while Persona has only sold ~9 Million.

 

[Deleted member]

Just checked the last few pages, somewhat expected this to be the only fighter pass and not surprised by Bayo's placement. It seems she did better than what people give credit for.

 

[3BitSaurus]

And I'm saying that AA is, if anything, the inverse-- it's popular in the Smash echo chamber but it's demonstrably the least popular of Capcom's active series.

Hmm... while AA selling the least out of Capcom's currently active series is undeniable, what's important ultimately IMO is that it's active at all. Other third parties that got in Smash had way less than that.

Also, I hardly think AA is simply popular in the Smash bubble. Remember, it sells the least among active franchises, but it's still in their top 10 best selling IPs at the same time, including old ones.

That said, Resident Evil would still be a huge obstacle for Phoenix as a Capcom rep, as it's their best-selling series right now and has nothing going against it, really.

 

[Will]

One of those games is not even released in America and the series in general already has a ton of content for how small it actually is. And it hasn’t been active in more than a decade.

and haven't seen the light of day for 11 years

f-zero hasn't gotten a game in over 15 years and sakurai is over here giving the series new music

hell, what's the excuse that porky can't live in smash in a series inactive for over 10 years but banjo could?

I love the Mother series as much as the next guy but it doesn’t need three unique characters.

people are saying that about metroid now that it has 4 characters. they say overpopulation is a problem but honestly as long as it isn't a fire emblem or a pokemon i think the general public won't have an outcry over an addition to the mother series.

i very much think it's possible, but i'm not on the porky train myself

 

[Guynamednelson]

Broke: Porky isn't DLC because he's not normie enough
Woke: Porky isn't DLC because we already have a Porky stage

 

[Will]

Broke: Porky isn't DLC because he's not normie enough
Woke: Porky isn't DLC because we already have a Porky stage

I mean, there's always Devil's Machine.

 

[Icedragonadam]

"Takes a look at the bottom of # number of users viewing"

Wowzers, I guess shouldn't be surprised considering the recent incident.

I know not to believe any rumors, but I am keeping my eye on that 2nd dlc rumor right now, mainly because the supposed ballot results line up with what Sakurai said about the characters above Bayonetta. Of course this depends on when he made that quote and if it's before or after the rumor was posted.

 

[Will]

has anyone else noticed a trend in the DLC moveset?

like how most newcomer heavies have a bellyflop slam down smash, the DLC so far has poison side specials?

i know this is absurd and means nothing but there has to be one guy out there who thinks it's worth noting with his tinfoil hat on

 

[Deleted member]

"Takes a look at the bottom of # number of users viewing"

Wowzers, I guess shouldn't be surprised considering the recent incident.

I know not to believe any rumors, but I am keeping my eye on that 2nd dlc rumor right now, mainly because the supposed ballot results line up with what Sakurai said about the characters above Bayonetta. Of course this depends on when he made that quote and if it's before or after the rumor was posted.

Its good to take into accout that while that rumor may or not be legit, Nintendo might as well reject the ballot altogether when making the DLC.

 

[SKX31]

How much the next game will change depends on how much the engine it's played on will, I'm still thinking the next title will be a Marvel 3 situation, keeps a lot of fan favorites, axes a handful in place of fresh ones, then has some DLC to fill in a few more. Not to mention 3rd parties could be in a whole different situation, not that I'd think they will be, but it's not 100% for sure gonna happen.

It might not be AS heavy as MVC2 to MVC3, given it's not translating 2D characters into 3D.

Unless they keep updating in such a way that's similar to Street Fighter 2. Not just in characters, but single player modes or making the online less jank.

Yeah, I'm leaning towards your interpretation.

I don't think we'll see a Smash 6 / reboot until at least 2025-ish. Of course, this is assuming the Switch has a usual lifespan and the successor to the Switch doesn't come until thereabouts (or a year earlier). Honestly, Smash 6 will have plenty of time to build its own identity, Ultimate engine or new engine, Ultimate roster or cuts. That's not to say anything about Sakurai - he might have gone off to work on something else or whatever. Nintendo is probably on the position of "Yeah, we'll continue to make Smash games* - but we want a) Sakurai at the helm, or b) a successor of his choosing to lead before we commit". If Nintendo aims for a new Smash or a reboot, they want to be sure they can make it right.

Judging by MK11's relative success with just 30 of its characters (One of my colleagues at work is a bit miffed that MK11 excludes MK10's Tremor, an Earth Elemental with a super deep voice - but he's not turned off from MK11. ), I think Smash can survive with something like 20 cuts. That's still 50 veterans with room for additions. Still, 20 cuts will lead to a pretty big outcry.

(*Why not? Smash makes too much money for Nintendo to stop producing games really)

 

[Mushroomguy12]

and haven't seen the light of day for 11 years

Both of those series are still active.

f-zero hasn't gotten a game in over 15 years and sakurai is over here giving the series new music

Music is pretty different from a character.

hell, what's the excuse that porky can't live in smash in a series inactive for over 10 years but banjo could?

Banjo is the main protagonist and titular character of his own game.

people are saying that about metroid now that it has 4 characters. they say overpopulation is a problem but honestly as long as it isn't a fire emblem or a pokemon i think the general public won't have an outcry over an addition to the mother series.

i very much think it's possible, but i'm not on the porky train myself

Nope. Mother and Metroid are both perfectly represented right now. Neither of them need anything more than Fire Emblem and Pokemon.

 

[Will]

Banjo is the main protagonist and titular character of his own game.

Porky is the main antagonist of 2/3 of Mother.

Nope. Mother and Metroid are both perfectly represented right now. Neither of them need anything more than Fire Emblem and Pokemon.

Well, again, it's Sakurais choices from a list in the end. If he does it he does it, and if he doesn't then he doesn't.