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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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GoodGrief741

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Anything is possible. For all we know Joker could be the only third party pick and the rest could be four different versions of Mario doing the same pose.
I hope one of those is Mario dabbing.
To be honest, I'm not even 100% sure if Steve is going to be one of the DLC characters at all.

Anyways, lets imagine that Nintendo/Sakurai confirmed a second season pass (even though it is too soon to say), which characters would you like to see?
I wanna see first party characters dawg. They're the best ones for me.
Since Erdrick is most likely happening that would be our second JRPG rep in the DLC, anyone think this might put down the chances for another character like Lloyd Irving which a lot of people seem to be predicting?
I don't think so. Out of all the DLC characters in Smash 4, all but 2 were from JRPGs.
 

frozolloyd

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Just don't assume that any character is guaranteed to get in. We might get a Joker-esque surprise reveal.

Assuming that the Mii Costume theory is real, then that means that Lloyd will probably be back as a Mii Fighter costume, disconfirming him.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the mii costume theory simply imply companies that had mii costumes in Smash 4 will get a character in the fighting pass, along with some of their older mii costumes? If that theory is true, that doesn't seem to necessarily mean that mii costumes can't be upgraded. Heck, for that matter, not all mii costumes even came back from Sega when Joker was revealed.
 
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thisjustin2001

Smash Apprentice
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To be honest, I'm not even 100% sure if Steve is going to be one of the DLC characters at all.

Anyways, lets imagine that Nintendo/Sakurai confirmed a second season pass (even though it is too soon to say), which characters would you like to see?
Well, I'd like it to be another all third-parties lineup of characters. I'm making this list assuming the rest of the first-party lineup is Banjo, Erdrick, Doom Slayer and Ryu Hayabusa.

My second season pass would be Steve, Master Chief, Sans, Cuphead and Tracer. The second season pass is just based 100% on my bias and not what I think is actually likely.
 

Door Key Pig

Smash Lord
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Just don't assume that any character is guaranteed to get in. We might get a Joker-esque surprise reveal.
Assuming truly does make an ass out of you and me. I mean we still didn't get Shadow as a character despite everything that looked good for him.
I don't think so. Out of all the DLC characters in Smash 4, all but 2 were from JRPGs.
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn. They could pick other genre characters, too.
Also, I have no doubt there will be a second pass because it wouldn't make much sense to only stop at one pass only a year into Ultimate's lifespan (I think 4 only had 1 year of DLC because it was on a failed system and the Switch was coming out in a year anyways so no point working on a soon to be discontinued system)
Not to mention the sheer sales of Smash Ultimate.

I mean yeah, I'd be neat to do a second round and just keep adding to the big ol' game crossover pile. I just hope that getting the team to stay on isn't a definite issue ("oh but nintendo doesn't do DLC for more than one year apparently"), not to mention poor Sakurai maybe wanting a break of course :)
 

CureParfait

Smash Ace
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On the Vergeben/Hitagi claims, all I'm going to say is that the plot thickens.

Anyways getting back on topic, on a scale of 1 to 10, how certain do you guys think that the remaining new characters within the season pass are going to be third party characters?
1, there is bound to be at least 1-2 first party newcomers.
 

3BitSaurus

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I don't think so. Out of all the DLC characters in Smash 4, all but 2 were from JRPGs.
However, out of the three third party ones, only Cloud is from a JRPG. Honestly, I don't think these things mean much... but we do need to keep genre variety in mind if Nintendo's objective with the DLC is to "expand the audience", as some have brought up before.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the mii costume theory simply imply companies that had mii costumes in Smash 4 will get a character in the fighting pass, along with some of their older mii costumes? If that theory is true, that doesn't seem to necessarily mean that mii costumes can't be upgraded. Heck, for that matter, not all mii costumes even came back from Sega when Joker was revealed.
Not all Sega costumes came with a Sega character during Smash 4. Bayonetta only came with the Tails and Knuckles costumes. The Virtua Fighter ones came with Ryu - they're all fighting game characters. There are other possibilities besides linking costumes to companies exclusively, I think. We got three Namco costumes, but no Namco character, four out of the six Capcom costumes didn't come with Ryu, etc.

The only company that followed the main idea of Costume Theory (costumes from a company = fighter from that company) to a tic was Square Enix (all of their costumes came with Cloud and no other character). So I guess we can expect anything, really.
 

Ornl

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Anyways getting back on topic, on a scale of 1 to 10, how certain do you guys think that the remaining new characters within the season pass are going to be third party characters?
7/10. The question about first party interests me, for a very personal reason (no need to invoke the Nintendo authority, it's just for sharing). Not counting the Mii, there are a total of 23 first-party licenses represented by at least 1 Fighter. Not counting the 4 upcoming DLC, there is a total of 9 third-party licenses represented by at least 1 Fighter. With 4 new licenses in the DLC, the total would be 36 different series. With 1 new first-party license and only 3 third-party licenses in the DLC, the ratio would be 24/12 (or 2 to 1).
I would like the overall representation to be this way. I like the idea that the Nintendo series can be exactly twice as important as the other series, but I have no idea who could be a new Fighter from a new Nintendo license, even if I hope for one.

24-12.jpg
 

3BitSaurus

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7/10. I would like the overall representation to be this way. I like the idea that the Nintendo series can be exactly twice as important as the other series, but I have no idea who could be a new Fighter from a new Nintendo license, even if I hope for one.
Truth is, I think there are very few big (or relatively big) Nintendo series that aren't represented by a playable character yet. The ones that come to mind are Chibi-Robo, ARMS, Rhythm Heaven, Golden Sun, Custom Robo, maybe Advance Wars/Famicom Wars. Again, most of these are kinda niche and I only bring them up because of high fanbase support, so... no idea, really.

Out of curiosity: why did you group Namco and Square Enix together, but left the others intact?
 

Robdelia

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Honestly, if there was one Square character that would garner similar reaction to Joker's initial reveal, which would require the character to be A.) new or recent, B.) hail from a international best-selling videogame made in Japan, C.) not considered or associated with Nintendo platforms, D.) had low chances of getting in prior to being revealed, E.) Sakurai holding the game in high regard or talking about the game (mentioning it in his Famitsu column), and F.) whose reveal shakes up speculation hard....

... That character would be NieR: Automata's 2B. Though Square-Enix producer Yosuke Saito, who produces both the Dragon Quest games and the Drakengard/Nier games, shot down the possibility back in a December video interview where he stated Nier wasn't invited for Smash.
Sora's reveal would be nuts, and probably larger than 2B. I'd argue his reveal would be maybe a bit more insane than Joker and Cloud just because of how impossible his chances look for him. So to see them actually get him in the game would be nuts.
 

BZL8

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Sora's reveal would be nuts, and probably larger than 2B. I'd argue his reveal would be maybe a bit more insane than Joker and Cloud just because of how impossible his chances look for him. So to see them actually get him in the game would be nuts.
Oh, certainly! Kingdom Hearts is a far more larger, more popular, and more established series than Nier. The main issue I see is, of course, Disney's involvement (*cough* *cough* Marvel vs Capcom Infinite *cough* *cough*). Bear in mind Sakurai and Nintendo wouldn't be dealing with Marvel, like Capcom and Sony had to do, but rather the House of Mouse itself. But if they can somehow get Disney on board, that alone is a feat worth mentioning.

The reason I threw 2B out there was because she would be the one Square-Enix character that isn't Sora or Western developed that could create a reaction that could rival and potentially even exceed Joker's, especially since unlike Persona, Kingdom Hearts, or Final Fantasy, the Drakengard/Nier series doesn't have installments, spinoffs, or games that connect it to a Nintendo platform (2B's only appearance on a Nintendo platform is in Sega's Phantasy Star Online 2, which is why she was is in the running in the first place).
 
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Curious Villager

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I am keeping 2B on the back of my mind. I don't know why, but she kind of feels like she'd be a Sakurai type choice for a final reveal, much akin to Bayonetta was for Smash 4's DLC period.

That's probably just me though...
 

Flyboy

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Considering 2B is my next pipe dream most-wanted now that Joker miraculously got in I'm inclined to agree. I genuinely feel like Phoenix Wright would be a huge deal too - I know I'm biased but he really IS that iconic, even if people haven't necessarily played his games. AA really kick-started the visual novel revolution in America.
 

BZL8

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The factors that would mainly play in 2B's potential inclusion (outside of a potential port of Automata or future Drakengard/NieR installments on Switch, that is) would be:
A.) Sakurai and Yoko Taro being friends (Didn't Kojima persuade Sakurai to put Snake in?)
B.) Nintendo's long, working relationship with both PlatinumGames and Square-Enix. Assuming things with Nintendo and Square go smoothly for a potential negotiation regarding Nier representation, Nintendo and Sakurai should have little trouble with Platinum, especially since they worked together previously to put Bayonetta and other such materials (music, spirits, etc.) in-game.
 
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Ovaltine

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I hate to rain on anyone's parades, but wasn't 2B already deconfirmed one of the heads of Drakengard/Nier? They literally said that 2B 'didn't receive an invitation for Smash this time'. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I swear I'd seen that before...
 

BZL8

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I hate to rain on anyone's parades, but wasn't 2B already deconfirmed one of the heads of Drakengard/Nier? They literally said that 2B 'didn't receive an invitation for Smash this time'. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I swear I'd seen that before...
Yep. I was the one who made the post on her support thread about it. Though it remains to be seen if Yosuke Saito was telling the truth or lying since he was never asked about a Dragon Quest character in the interview in question. Doesn't mean we can't continue to talk about her potential inclusion though.
 
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Ovaltine

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Yep. I was the one who made the post on her support thread about it. Though it remains to be seen if Yosuke Saito was telling the truth or lying since he was never asked about a Dragon Quest character in the interview in question. Doesn't mean we can't continue to talk about her potential inclusion though.
Alright, I was just making sure. I was a bit worried that people were getting their hopes up when things realistically look rather bleak for her. That said, if we get more DLC in the future, I think she has a very good shot at making it.
 

Ridrool64

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Honestly? Besides Goku and friends, I think the sky is the limit when it comes to the roster, and the only thing keeping Goku and friends out of the way is that they’d be way to hard to license for little (relative) payoff.

2B isn’t a character I have much personal stake in (well Arle is the ONLY character I have notable personal stake in), but she would be appreciated. She’s got basically anything I could as for except Nintendo history, but I think she’s a big enough deal to sidestep that little nuisance compared to the rest of her accolades.
 

Nquoid

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there's no way that means nothing, imo
Whilst I'm inclined to agree, I *can* see a world where someone working on the game was under that false assumption that the Blast Corps and Jet Force Gemini IPs ended up with Nintendo/didn't realise they were Rare games. Since those are the two IPs that Rare haven't done anything substantial with or weren't licensed from elsewhere since being bought by Microsoft
 
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Door Key Pig

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Master Cheif, Cuphead Bois, Travis Touchdown, 2B, Dante?
Truth is, I think there are very few big (or relatively big) Nintendo series that aren't represented by a playable character yet. The ones that come to mind are Chibi-Robo, ARMS, Rhythm Heaven, Golden Sun, Custom Robo, maybe Advance Wars/Famicom Wars. Again, most of these are kinda niche and I only bring them up because of high fanbase support, so... no idea, really.
I mean hey, Rhythm Paradise has its Japanese fanbase, no? Seeing that crossover into Smash as well as being a new genre and audience to the game could be worth a look and the last big first party addition we need.

Wishful thinking I guess...
 
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Nquoid

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Truth is, I think there are very few big (or relatively big) Nintendo series that aren't represented by a playable character yet. The ones that come to mind are Chibi-Robo, ARMS, Rhythm Heaven, Golden Sun, Custom Robo, maybe Advance Wars/Famicom Wars. Again, most of these are kinda niche and I only bring them up because of high fanbase support, so... no idea, really.
Just taking a look at which Franchises got multiple spirits that aren't already represented, you can sort of maybe get a feel for where Nintendo would take first party newcomers from:

Rhythm Heaven Series = 9
Golden Sun Series = 8
The Legendary Starfy Series = 6
Chibi-Robo! Series = 5
ARMS = 5
Nintendo Wars Series = 4
Custom Robo Series = 4
Osu! Tatakae! Ouendan/Elite Beat Agents Series = 4
Nintendo Labo Series = 4
Famicom Fairytales Series = 3
Kaeru no Tame ni Kane wa Naru/For Frog the Bell Tolls = 3
Magical Vacation Series = 3
Nintendogs Series = 3
Culdcept Series = 3

Obviously it's not an exact science, but it shows which franchises have more fondness from the dev team.

I mean hey, Rhythm Paradise has its Japanese fanbase, no? Seeing that crossover into Smash as well as being a new genre and audience to the game could be worth a look and the last big first party addition we need.

Wishful thinking I guess...
Whilst I'd love the Rhythm Paradise games to get some sort of bigger representation, I would argue that that genre is already represented through Wario, especially since WarioWare and Rhythm Paradise have the same devs.
 

Curious Villager

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Master Cheif, Cuphead Bois, Travis Touchdown, 2B, Dante?
One of the Halo devs at 343 commented that Master Chief is not in
https://twitter.com/franklez/status/1076911083909132289
It's kind of hard to tell whether or not they are keeping things a secret or no due to NDA's and all (though then again, they would probably have to avoid the questions altogether), but it's probably for the best to just take their word for it.

I don't remember much about what Kamiya said when yelling at "Smash Idiots" when it came to Bayonetta during Smash 4's DLC period...
 
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Door Key Pig

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There was also that Minecraft Discord guy saying like "Steve ain't gonna Smash" before changing his tune...
Just taking a look at which Franchises got multiple spirits that aren't already represented, you can sort of maybe get a feel for where Nintendo would take first party newcomers from:

Rhythm Heaven Series = 9
Golden Sun Series = 8
The Legendary Starfy Series = 6
Chibi-Robo! Series = 5
ARMS = 5
Nintendo Wars Series = 4
Custom Robo Series = 4
Osu! Tatakae! Ouendan/Elite Beat Agents Series = 4
Nintendo Labo Series = 4
Famicom Fairytales Series = 3
Kaeru no Tame ni Kane wa Naru/For Frog the Bell Tolls = 3
Magical Vacation Series = 3
Nintendogs Series = 3
Culdcept Series = 3

Obviously it's not an exact science, but it shows which franchises have more fondness from the dev team.



Whilst I'd love the Rhythm Paradise games to get some sort of bigger representation, I would argue that that genre is already represented through Wario, especially since WarioWare and Rhythm Paradise have the same devs.
... Wario Ware isn't a music franchise, though. And is shared with Mario and his Land series.
 

Ornl

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Truth is, I think there are very few big (or relatively big) Nintendo series that aren't represented by a playable character yet. The ones that come to mind are Chibi-Robo, ARMS, Rhythm Heaven, Golden Sun, Custom Robo, maybe Advance Wars/Famicom Wars. Again, most of these are kinda niche and I only bring them up because of high fanbase support, so... no idea, really.
Smash Bros Utimate wants to be the crossover ever created.
Monolith Soft already has created a major crossover under the Nintendo leadership. Project X Zone 2 already has brought together characters from Ace Attorney, Devil May Cry, Fire Emblem, Mega Man, Resident Evil, Sakura Wars, Shenmue, Soulcalibur, Street Fighter, Tales of, Tekken, Virtua Fighter and Xenoblade. Smash Bros must make sure to do better.
So, all new Fighters should be from different "new to the series" third-party licenses.

However, license and company ownership also is a matter of business and oportunity.
Nintendo knows how to take new license. Ex: Tose shares the copyright of Legendary Starfy series with Nintendo.
Nintendo knows ho to take new compagny. Ex: Monolith Soft gradually has been bought by Nintendo since the retirement of the founder of Namco. Then Tetsuya Takahashi (Front Mission, Final Fantasy IV, Romancing SaGa, Final Fantasy V, Secret of Mana, Final Fantasy VI, Chrono Trigger, Seiken Densetsu 3, Xenogears) with other former Square employees created Xenoblade. In a way, Shulk is the 1st spiritual Squenix rep.
A third-party company can have second-party licenses. Ex: Professor Layton from Level 5.
So, Smash Bros could have a new first-party Fighter that wouldn't already exist in Spirit. It could be a character whose copyright would be bought by Nintendo.

Out of curiosity: why did you group Namco and Square Enix together, but left the others intact?
It is flexible.
 

Captain Shades

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Yo guys, I just thought of something..

You guys know how we all believe that Spirits deconfirm characters, well I just realized that Smash has a 3rd party franchise without its main character as a spirit.

If you notice, Nintendo went to Ubisoft for Rayman and the Mario Rabbids, but there is not a single standard Rabbid spirit in the game. At this moment, the Rabbids do actually stand a chance at being characters as there are no spirits from their games in Smash, but they already have the rights to the Rabbids.
 

3BitSaurus

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Smash Bros Utimate wants to be the crossover ever created.
Monolith Soft already has created a major crossover under the Nintendo leadership. Project X Zone 2 already has brought together characters from Ace Attorney, Devil May Cry, Fire Emblem, Mega Man, Resident Evil, Sakura Wars, Shenmue, Soulcalibur, Street Fighter, Tales of, Tekken, Virtua Fighter and Xenoblade. Smash Bros must make sure to do better.
So, all new Fighters should be from different "new to the series" third-party licenses.

However, license and company ownership also is a matter of business and oportunity.
Nintendo knows how to take new license. Ex: Tose shares the copyright of Legendary Starfy series with Nintendo.
Nintendo knows ho to take new compagny. Ex: Monolith Soft gradually has been bought by Nintendo since the retirement of the founder of Namco. Then Tetsuya Takahashi (Front Mission, Final Fantasy IV, Romancing SaGa, Final Fantasy V, Secret of Mana, Final Fantasy VI, Chrono Trigger, Seiken Densetsu 3, Xenogears) with other former Square employees created Xenoblade. In a way, Shulk is the 1st spiritual Squenix rep.
A third-party company can have second-party licenses. Ex: Professor Layton from Level 5.
So, Smash Bros could have a new first-party Fighter that wouldn't already exist in Spirit. It could be a character whose copyright would be bought by Nintendo.
Yeah, I think Bayonetta is in a similar situation, with her games now being Nintendo exclusives through funding and all. Maybe if Astral Chain is successful, we might see a character from that game in a future Smash game?

Ah, to tie in with the Project X Zone 2 thing you mentioned: that one is a crossover with 3 different companies (4 if you count Nintendo). Smash has 5 already (again not counting Nintendo). So another way to "do better" is to put more companies on board. I really believe at least one of the DLC characters could come from a company that doesn't have playable characters until now (Level-5, SNK, Koei Tecmo, Microsoft, Ubisoft, FromSoftware, etc).

Yo guys, I just thought of something..

You guys know how we all believe that Spirits deconfirm characters, well I just realized that Smash has a 3rd party franchise without its main character as a spirit.

If you notice, Nintendo went to Ubisoft for Rayman and the Mario Rabbids, but there is not a single standard Rabbid spirit in the game. At this moment, the Rabbids do actually stand a chance at being characters as there are no spirits from their games in Smash, but they already have the rights to the Rabbids.
Honestly... I'd be kinda miffed if that was the case. Ubisoft has a lot of history and franchises that would have "earned" their place in video game history and the one they pick is Rabbids? Like... I get why they would do it: It's a recent, popular-ish franchise that has recently had a crossover with Mario himself, which ended up selling surprisingly well, not to mention they have the moveset potential, but damn, son...
 

Ornl

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Rabbids would be a DLC too risky to secure sales. We must imagine: there finally would be a Western character, but it would be Rabbids. So the solution for the Smash community to refuse this choice would be to launch a boycott campaign. Then it would be possible for this campaign to become effective.
However, Rabbids could become a good Costume or Assist Trophee.
 

Captain Shades

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Rabbids would be a DLC too risky to secure sales. We must imagine: there finally would be a Western character, but it would be Rabbids. So the solution for the Smash community to refuse this choice would be to launch a boycott campaign. Then it would be possible for this campaign to become effective.
However, Rabbids could become a good Costume or Assist Trophee.
Not at all. The Rabbids are huge gaming icons with the casual public and just gained respect from gamers due to the Mario crossover. While some will try to boycott it, it won’t work as the characters are more appealing to the outside audience to be affected by the Smash community which is relatively small.

Like how people successfully boycotted Bayo and Corrin?
Pretty much, a boycott would do nothing to them. Just like Steve, the Rabbids are major characters that the Smash community doesn’t like, but would generate sales regardless as they are huge franchises in the general gaming public, not to mention that Smash fans will buy/ already have bought the DLC.
 

3BitSaurus

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Like how people successfully boycotted Bayo and Corrin?
Eh... if people really were that unsatisfied, I see no reason for them to buy it.

That said, this kind of thing usually doesn't work on fighting games. I remember people in the Street Fighter and Tekken communities being pissed about a few inclusions, but people still needed to learn the matchup for the meta. So the competitive base will stil buy it regardless. And the more casual segments would buy it anyway.
 
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