Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[ZaneHitsurugi]

There is no precedent set in the first place. DLC is completely different. There's nothing to go off of.

We already know characters in an NPC role don't matter. Chrom is still a Final Smash. This is a big thing. The precedent Ultimate set is that an NPC can be in a player character role in the same game to begin with. Of course it doesn't mean a AT upgrade for DLC is likely, but there are no actual rules we can state cause it's purely a fan-created rule.

Sakurai has never actually at any point said that someone in an NPC role cannot be upgraded for DLC. A DLC set last game had no actual particular special thing about it. It was all over the place with zero rules in place. The actual thing about that DLC is that he chose certain characters in some cases to fill a specific objective; Mewtwo is "the" veteran. Roy is a Melee vet, and Lucas is a Brawl vet. The rest were interesting 3rd party choices in their own way, and then Corrin was related to advertising, but they almost didn't get in if Sakurai's team hadn't convinced him they could be unique. Smash Ultimate made something; the first character was a bonus who became a purchase later. The Fighter's Pass is actually a preset of characters that are supposed to be unexpected(with nothing made clear beyond that). The only reason the whole Spirits Disconfirm thing makes logical sense is due to rumors that DLC was chosen around the same that Sakurai removed various Spirits from the base game, including playable ones. And that's still guesswork, but it has better logic behind it than "npc role" which is clearly not an active rule.

Basically? There's little precedent to look at in the first place. If it was such a big thing, Sakurai would've cared enough to change Robin's Final Smash to another fitting character. But he didn't. It's a waste of resources when you have the work already done. Nor does it matter. AT's do matter more in gameplay, but we know they can be manually turned off under circumstances, eliminating the only real thing stopping them from being upgraded in the first place. It also takes less work cause you have a base model and some animations done. The only actual reason Sakurai wouldn't want to comes down to either a principle thing(which there's nothing wrong with) or it's a 3rd party he can't license(or 2nd party, companies not cooperating, same point overall). Beyond that, it's not a precedent at all. That's holding too close to patterns that aren't even one to begin with. We don't have enough DLC seasons, or for that matter, games with DLC to really get a good structure of what he's doing. For that matter, he likes to be unexpected and not follow a pattern just cause we see it as one. Development nor thoughts are that simple. Fanrules aren't really good to hold onto too hard, honestly.

We'll see about that. The fact that we've never seen an AT upgraded, or a character go back to being an AT makes me think that it has to actually happen for the possibility to rise.
It just doesn't seem like something to get your hopes up over at this point.
t. former Ray MK-III advocate.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

We'll see about that. The fact that we've never seen an AT upgraded, or a character go back to being an AT makes me think that it has to actually happen for the possibility to rise.
It just doesn't seem like something to get your hopes up over at this point.
t. former Ray MK-III advocate.

Reason why I don't see Assists getting promoted.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

We'll see about that. The fact that we've never seen an AT upgraded, or a character go back to being an AT makes me think that it has to actually happen for the possibility to rise.
It just doesn't seem like something to get your hopes up over at this point.
t. former Ray MK-III advocate.

I'm not seeing how this remotely makes any of my points invalid. Cynicism cause you were burnt once is not an argument either. People are going to hope, but it doesn't mean they consider it likely either. Which makes more sense anyway, cause you can hope but still keep expectations in check. It's not like speculation is a pure black and white mentality. It's not that common of a mentality either.

But I already explained why there's no actual precedent. I don't need to repeat it again either. I don't expect any AT upgrade, but I have no good reason to believe it's impossible beyond Sakurai principle(which he has never changed among multiple games, making it an actual precedent to go off of).

 

[Cosmic77]

If Sakurai really wanted Waluigi or Isaac playable, I doubt something as simple as an AT or a Spirit would stop him. It's not that hard to work around either. He could just prevent the AT from spawning when (insert playable AT) was selected, similar to what he did with other characters who have stage cameos.

Or he could just add them and not change anything, like Chrom. Really doesn't matter.

 

[SKX31]

And how Sakurai always said revelanty never matter, but it took him repeating it again in the Terry demonstration that now the fandom wants to hammer it and force it down people's neck

While I do overall agree with your post, if I may be nitpicky: Sakurai didn't say relevancy was totally out of the question, but that he prioritized fun instead of relevancy hardcore. If characters like Steve or Jonesy get in it'll be because they have fun moveset ideas Sakurai could build on and not relevancy as such. Right alongside characters like Story of Seasons' Farmer or KOS-MOS.

One could make the argument that Furukawa and Nintendos' other execs are a tad more concerned with relevancy - but they're also happy with a Fighter Pass lineup consisting so far of . Still, I wouldn't be surprised if relevancy = a really nice bonus from the execs' POV on one or two picks, considering Furukawa's Ultimate's Executive Producer and Nintendo's President. has quite a lot of recent projects - some of which are China-focused or exclusive coincidentally.

 

[Cosmic77]

Also, keep in mind that, "It's never happened before," is basically the same as, "It never happened in Smash 4."

There's only been one Smash game prior to Ultimate that's had DLC, and seeing how even characters like Ridley and K. Rool missed out, it's not that worrying. Most of Ultimate's DLC in the Fighter's Pass was decided long before the game released, so again, not really surprising why we haven't seen any ATs get upgraded in Ultimate yet.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

If Sakurai really wanted Waluigi or Isaac playable, I doubt something as simple as an AT or a Spirit would stop him. It's not that hard to work around either. He could just prevent the AT from spawning when (insert playable AT) was selected, similar to what he did with other characters who have stage cameos.

Or he could just add them and not change anything, like Chrom. Really doesn't matter.

I'd say they'd be disabled. He does that often with a lot of characters too if they are similarly designed. Not in all cases, with say, King Dedede being removed from Dreamland. AT's are a full model being playable. Chrom is a one-shot cutscene that doesn't interfere with gameplay. So it's a different situation. Toon Link is removed too, which... isn't that needed, especially when Young Link and Link are there. I get why with Toon Link, but the rest seemed like "why not" at that point.

His NPC rules seem to not be consistent, but we know they can be disabled if he wants. We know AT's can be disabled under certain circumstances anyway, so it's likely he'd do that. Another example would be Tingle. Remove him from the stage if he's playable. Easy. Plus, unless I'm mistaken about the designs, Tingle could come with 4 of each of his MM and WW style costumes, since he's popular in both forms. Akin to Wario.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Isaac's AT focusing on puzzle-solving abilities was a mistake.

Isaac's AT focusing on puzzle-solving abilities was a mistake.

 

[perfectchaos83]

Spirits post-pass though? Far bigger chances.

I think the opposite. The ATs are characters with far bigger star power to them and the possible Spirit promotions are really limited to Dixie, Bandana Dee, Shantae, Rayman and Geno. Personally, I don't see why they'd promote a Spirit when an AT would cause a bigger reaction in more ways than one.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

It is extremely unlikely that any ATs will get upgraded to being playable since it hasn't happened before.

A precedence has to be set. I wouldn't hold your breath for it at the moment.

That's a unreasonably naive assessment of probability. It doesn't take into account why a thing hasn't happened yet.

For an example of how much of a difference that can make, consider the following example. A new intellectual property debuts in a highly successful action movie. Let's call it Action *******. Some people start speculating that there will be an Action ******* video game. Someone else counters with the argument that there has never been an Action ******* video game before, so it's extremely unlikely to happen now. One might respond, "Of course there hasn't been an Action ******* video game before, because the intellectual property didn't exist until recently." That's one case in which the reason why a thing hasn't happened yet makes a big difference to the probability of it happening in the future.

One counterargument to the above is that the event in question has been unreasonably constrained. The argument that the lack of a precedent entails low probability could still apply if the precedent we look for isn't an Action ******* video game being made, but rather a video game based on a highly successful movie being made.

The above is true, but a similar argument can be made for the event of assist trophies becoming playable DLC. Why not instead look for a precedent of non-playable characters in a game becoming DLC for that game? Why not even broader?

Edit: I didn't think it would censor my Shin Chan dub reference.

 

[Opossum]

AT's are a full model being playable. Chrom is a one-shot cutscene that doesn't interfere with gameplay. So it's a different situation.

What are you talking about? Chrom absolutely affects gameplay. He's part of a Final Smash... and it isn't even a cutscene Final Smash.

 

[cj.]

Merry Christmas for all, and go for another SNK rep!

 

[Guynamednelson]

Toon Link is removed too, which... isn't that needed, especially when Young Link and Link are there. I get why with Toon Link, but the rest seemed like "why not" at that point.

They didn't really even need to do the Alfonzo Easter Egg when WW Link=/=ST Link.

 

[lordvaati]

I feel like it's probably the Croagunk Argument at play here, in the sense that Croagunk in Pokken was a Support Pokemon you can call in but was later added as a DLC character down the line. Of course the main thing there is that since it's Pokemon there are multiple Croagunk which was even a thing they poked fun at in it's moveset.

And there is of course the whoe Alfonzo/Tron Bonne/Alex arguments at play too for background characters.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I think the opposite. The ATs are characters with far bigger star power to them and the possible Spirit promotions are really limited to Dixie, Bandana Dee, Shantae, Rayman and Geno. Personally, I don't see why they'd promote a Spirit when an AT would cause a bigger reaction in more ways than one.

Because one isn't a model with a major gameplay role. They're literally pictures and nothing more.

They both would cause reactions in a similar way. They're both NPC roles that people believe has killed their chances for the entire game. There's no denying they both affect gameplay. Look at the large disappointment in Resident Evil being Spirit'd Away. AT's barely cover one or two characters. They don't do much against a franchise like Spirits often do. It's not the same situation, but they're both pretty major overall.

The only real advantage to promoting an AT is solely that they have a model and animations. That's literally it.

What are you talking about? Chrom absolutely affects gameplay. He's part of a Final Smash... and it isn't even a cutscene Final Smash.

But close enough to one for Sakurai. Every FS was updated or kept the same to become fast enough to not interfere with gameplay.

A ton of AT's last on the field for a very long time. Some longer than you'd hope(Ghirahim, who is pretty strong). That's why they're not comparable. I forgot it's not a literal cutscene, but it's still so damn short that you won't have any trouble confusing full out gameplay and movement with a short sequence that might as well be a cutscene in practice.

Though with what you said, it further proves that Sakurai doesn't care about the NPC role even more than I originally stated. That's why I don't think AT's are impossible. They do interfere with gameplay way more than Chrom does in the FS, regardless, but they are so easy to disable it's not an issue anyway. Also, see what I said about NPC consistency too. There's no clear rule on how he's doing it. My guess is bigger models matter more, and it could be sharing the same design when it comes to sprites. But it seems really damn arbitrary sometimes(King Dedede is definitely just a "why not" at that point. You can't confuse him with the real one to begin with).

They didn't really even need to do the Alfonzo Easter Egg when WW Link=/=ST Link.

Of course they didn't. But that's incorrect in Smash too. Toon Link is an artstyle, not WW Link. His official trophy says he's from WW, PH, and ST. I don't think it was useful, but the fact he didn't get an Engineer costume sucks too. Like, that's the best reason to have the NPC change, really.

 

[Curious Villager]

They didn't really even need to do the Alfonzo Easter Egg when WW Link=/=ST Link.

I would have forgiven the whole Alfonzo thing if they at least made Engineer Link an alt for Toon Link but that never happened either despite that there is now a full fledged model of it in Smash Ultimate...

At this point, I like to think the only reason they made it affect the other Link's as well was after the whole Alfonzo memery started firing up due to the unnecessary need to replace ST Link whenever WW/PH Link shows up, who are canonically different people and they don't have to look as silly over it and not remove the Alfonzo model either...

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I would have forgiven the whole Alfonzo thing if they at least made Engineer Link an alt for Toon Link but that never happened either despite that there is now a full fledged model of it in Smash Ultimate...

At this point, I like to think the only reason they made it affect the other Link's as well was after the whole Alfonzo memery started firing up due to the unnecessary need to replace ST Link whenever WW/PH Link shows up, who are canonically different people and they don't have to look as silly over it...

He decided it should affect Link too during Smash 4, so more than likely it's just being consistent with his old plan and nothing more.

I agree Engineer Link not being a costume is a travesty, though.

 

[Curious Villager]

He decided it should affect Link too during Smash 4, so more than likely it's just being consistent with his old plan and nothing more.

I agree Engineer Link not being a costume is a travesty, though.

They did, though initially that wasn't the case and the pic of the day implied that this was something that only affected whenever Toon Link was on stage, not Link.

It wasn't until the game came out when we found out that this affected Link as well and they made the tip about it addressing it too.

Though like I said, that's just something that I personally just think about. They probably didn't give Toon Link the Engineer Link alt because they didn't want to get rid of his Dark Toon Link alt if Mario is anything to go by, don't ask me about Crafted World Yoshi though...

 

[Guynamednelson]

didn't want to get rid of his Dark Toon Link alt if Mario is anything to go by,

As we all know, having two alts based on top-down Zeldas is more important.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

I know this is probably a off topic and stupid question but why was there no new character announcement at the VGA awards.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

They did, though initially that wasn't the case and the pic of the day implied that this was something that only affected whenever Toon Link was on stage, not Link.

Yeah. It's really weird. I think it was some principle thing. Since Links in general are often a "combination" of more than one. Removing Engineer Link while Link was there is an arbitrary change. Toon Link actually has nearly the same head bar the quality differences, so that I get entirely. Especially since both are activate on the stage for a very long time. Either way, the way it's done is overall inconsistent. We regardless knows he disables any NPC role if he feels the need to, but Final Smashes have never applied to this(they're very short, so that's probably why. They're barely affecting a long match to begin with either way). As I said before, King Dedede feels actually arbitrary. Link does too, but not nearly as much.

It wasn't until the game came out when we found out that this affected Link as well.

Though like I said, that's just something that I personally just think about. They probably didn't give Toon Link the Engineer Link alt because they didn't want to get rid of his Dark Toon Link alt if Mario is anything to go by, don't ask me about Crafted World Yoshi though...

Yeah, that makes sense. They had no room for the alt at that point. Though I wish Ridley's were a bit better like in the demo. A lot of characters suffer from meh alts. Crafted is a neat alt, but it would've been better to reuse the color to help make it stand out. If only cause Smash is also designed nowadays to be competitively viable, so too similar costumes are a big deal. I feel bad for 2 on 2 Cloud players. You can tell two at most apart due to Advent Children and FFVII colors.

This is also why I'd love free DLC character costumes. Or just add them to the stop itself, but you need to buy them. Any costume still requires work. I'd be okay with paying a little bit for a costume too(I pay for MIi costumes just fine). They're small changes. Though my guess is that they feel the need to have the costume number the same, and a lot of characters may be impossible to get a new costume for, especially some 3rd parties or Pokemon. That's new licensing. 1st parties aren't so bad. I miss when we didn't have 4 or 8 costumes only.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

I know this is probably a off topic and stupid question but why was there no new character announcement at the VGA awards.

Probably because Nintendo wasn't ready to show another character yet. Like everyone else said, Joker was a last minute decision to announce at the game awards. Nintendo prefer to show their stuff in their own time.

 

[Will]

ATs not getting promoted in the same game through DLC not ever happening is just as likely as it is to actually happen.

Good thing I'm an optimist, look at my ****ing signature.

 

[osby]

I know this is probably a off topic and stupid question but why was there no new character announcement at the VGA awards.

I don't think it's off-topic but why do you expect us to know the answer? None of us are Nintendo or Sakurai.

 

[Will]

I know this is probably a off topic and stupid question but why was there no new character announcement at the VGA awards.

To show off No More Heroes 3 because it'll actually be Travis Touchdown the whole time for the shoo-in advertisement-for-a-game-that-isnt-out-yet slot

 

[Curious Villager]

I know this is probably a off topic and stupid question but why was there no new character announcement at the VGA awards.

*Shrug* They just didn't have any plans to reveal the next character there I suppose.
Heck they weren't even planning to reveal Joker there last year as that was more of a last minute decision...

 

[Evil Trapezium]

Also everyone is talking about assist trophy and spirit promotions.

Fighters pass, not going to happen. Post pass, wait and see who they release.

 

[Will]

Fighters pass, not going to happen. Post pass, wait and see who they release.

i think everyone has agreed with this since the beginning

 

[Deleted member]

I know this is probably a off topic and stupid question but why was there no new character announcement at the VGA awards.

Because not everything has to feature Smash news.

 

[ZaneHitsurugi]

That's a unreasonably naive assessment of probability. It doesn't take into account why a thing hasn't happened yet.

For an example of how much of a difference that can make, consider the following example. A new intellectual property debuts in a highly successful action movie. Let's call it Action *******. Some people start speculating that there will be an Action ******* video game. Someone else counters with the argument that there has never been an Action ******* video game before, so it's extremely unlikely to happen now. One might respond, "Of course there hasn't been an Action ******* video game before, because the intellectual property didn't exist until recently." That's one case in which the reason why a thing hasn't happened yet makes a big difference to the probability of it happening in the future.

One counterargument to the above is that the event in question has been unreasonably constrained. The argument that the lack of a precedent entails low probability could still apply if the precedent we look for isn't an Action ******* video game being made, but rather a video game based on a highly successful movie being made.

The above is true, but a similar argument can be made for the event of assist trophies becoming playable DLC. Why not instead look for a precedent of non-playable characters in a game becoming DLC for that game? Why not even broader?

That seems like apples and oranges. The pattern of ATs being deconfirms hasn't been broken yet since their debut.

 

[P.Kat]

There's still a chance for Ribbon Girl, who was promoted as much as Spring Man. Although Dr. Coyle would be the ideal pick imo.

If we had to get an ARMS character, I'd like to get Min Min.

 

[wynn728]

Most people are saying "Just because Assist Trophy hasn't been upgraded doesn't mean they won't be" and "Sakurai never said it won't happen" but the thing is there's just a great chance that he just has no desire to make those characters playable and just wanted them to be Assist Trophy for some kind of representation. Sakurai is all about trying to represent as many series as possible so for him instead of making characters that he doesn't have an desire of putting in as Assist Trophies. He probably won't go back and upgrade them into being fighters because in his mind everyone is super happy with Assist Trophies so why should he bother making a character playable when they're already represented in Ultimate when all he wants to do is continue to add more series and characters into Smash Bros?

We can continue going asking for these Assist Trophy characters to be playable, but Sakurai probably ignores that demand and convince that he already satisfied those fans.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

That seems like apples and oranges. The pattern of ATs being deconfirms hasn't been broken yet since their debut.

Debut? That doesn't matter. You can't have had an upgrade in Brawl because there's no DLC to speak of. That's why Brawl did not start a pattern. 4 can't start one either, cause Ultimate doesn't share the same DLC outline yet. Until it happens, no pattern exists.

Most people are saying "Just because Assist Trophy hasn't been upgraded doesn't mean they won't be" and "Sakurai never said it won't happen" but the thing is there's just a great chance that he just has no desire to make those characters playable and just wanted them to be Assist Trophy for some kind of representation. Sakurai is all about trying to represent as many series as possible so for him instead of making characters that he doesn't have an desire of putting in as Assist Trophies. He probably won't go back and upgrade them into being fighters because in his mind everyone is super happy with Assist Trophies so why should he bother making a character playable when they're already represented in Ultimate when all he wants to do is continue to add more series and characters into Smash Bros?

We can continue going asking for these Assist Trophy characters to be playable, but Sakurai probably ignores that demand and convince that he already satisfied those fans.

On the other hand, this is a reasonably convincing argument. I can concur with this. This is the reason I highly doubt it'll happen. Sakurai has noted he wants his base roster to feel complete. That can include AT's and Spirits.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

He probably won't go back and upgrade them into being fighters because in his mind everyone is super happy with Assist Trophies so why should he bother making a character playable when they're already represented in Ultimate when all he wants to do is continue to add more series and characters into Smash Bros?

We can continue going asking for these Assist Trophy characters to be playable, but Sakurai probably ignores that demand and convince that he already satisfied those fans.

I sincerely doubt that. (Waluigi's not even close to my most wanted btw).

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

I sincerely doubt that. (Waluigi's not even close to my most wanted btw).

Sorry, but I'm with Wynn on this one. He can't please everyone, but the point of representation is to give the most possible nice outcome for as many as possible. "Everybody being happy" is a bit inaccurate, instead of "as many people as happy as possible", but his core point stands.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Sorry, but I'm with Wynn on this one. He can't please everyone, but the point of representation is to give the most possible nice outcome for as many as possible. "Everybody being happy" is a bit inaccurate, instead of "as many people as happy as possible", but his core point stands.

Sure, I can understand the rationale behind it, but I doubt that Sakurai still believes everyone is "super happy" with Assist Trophies seeing the reaction to Waluigi, Shadow, and Isaac's reveals. (We actually got his thoughts on the reactions to Everyone is here and how people were excited for the cut veterans because they were cut, so he probably saw the reactions to the Final November Direct and the original groans for Waluigi too). It's just something that's currently out of his power, but I'm pretty sure that it's more out of exhaustion of resources rather than genuinely believing he's satisfied those fans like Wynn worded it.

 

[Will]

im just saying if he had to promote AT in a DLC season you know it'd be waluigi

shadow and isaac stans tear me limb from limb if you must but im spitting fax

 

[Cutie Gwen]

im just saying if he had to promote AT in a DLC season you know it'd be waluigi

shadow and isaac stans tear me limb from limb if you must but im spitting fax

No fam it's clearly Kuru Kuru Kururin getting promoted.


Side note, did that AT even come back in ultimate?

 

[Will]

No fam it's clearly Kuru Kuru Kururin getting promoted.


Side note, did that AT even come back in ultimate?

actually i was mistaken


this is the real AT promotion

 

[Mushroomguy12]

No fam it's clearly Kuru Kuru Kururin getting promoted.


Side note, did that AT even come back in ultimate?

Nope, didn't even come back in Smash 4. It was exclusive to Brawl.